1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April, the bond market first declined significantly and then fluctuated sideways under the influence of factors such as the unexpected US tariff policy, better Q1 fundamental data, and the repeated Sino - US tariff game. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15BP to 1.66%. The yield curve flattened in a bullish manner [1][8]. - In May, the supply of government bonds is expected to reach a peak, with the special treasury bonds entering the issuance peak and the accelerated implementation of new special bonds. The net supply of government bonds in May may be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high [2][49]. - The central bank is likely to conduct operations such as reverse repurchase and MLF net injection to support liquidity, and may restart treasury bond trading operations. Substantive loose monetary policies such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts are also expected, and the money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - The bond market is not bearish in the short - term. In May, attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and the short - term trading opportunities. The 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and appropriate incremental allocation can be made during adjustments [5][81]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Declined Significantly and Then Fluctuated Sideways, and the Yield Curve Flattened in a Bullish Manner - In April, affected by multiple factors, the bond market first declined and then fluctuated. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15.23BP to 1.66%, and the 1Y Treasury yield dropped 8.78BP to 1.45%. The term spread narrowed by 6.45BP to 21.05BP [1][8]. - Overseas, US inflation showed a cooling trend, the labor market remained resilient, and the US equivalent tariff policy led to a decline in global risk appetite. The US Treasury yield rose significantly due to liquidity issues caused by basis trading. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June [10]. 3.2 This Month's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 This Month's Bond Market Outlook: Supply Peak is Approaching, Pay Attention to the Central Bank's Attitude and Hedging Operations - **Fundamentals**: Q1 fundamental data recovered more than expected, but the macro - data led by exports may be under short - term pressure in Q2. In May, continue to focus on the continuation of strong social financing, the improvement of CPI, the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on exports, and the drag of external demand on PMI. Also, pay attention to the impact of the improvement of real - estate data on the fundamentals [2][33]. - **Supply**: In May, the special treasury bonds will enter the issuance peak, and the new special bonds will be accelerated. The net supply of government bonds is expected to be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high. The supply of ordinary treasury bonds and special bonds for replacing hidden debts may shrink [2][49]. - **Money Market**: The accelerated issuance of government bonds may disturb the money market, but the central bank is likely to conduct operations to support liquidity. The money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting in April set a positive tone for macro - policies, but the incremental information was limited. Structural and aggregate monetary policy tools are expected to work together. Reserve - requirement ratio cuts may occur in May, while interest - rate cuts need to wait for the Fed to open the window [3][70]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In April, institutions increased their bond holdings, but there were obvious differences between bulls and bears. Banks were the main sellers, and other institutions were buyers. In May, there are opportunities for allocation in ultra - long - term bonds and trading in short - term bonds [4][75]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market is Not Bearish, Pay Attention to the Allocation Value of Ultra - long - term Bonds under the Supply Peak - In May, the main points of concern include the stability of the money market, the supply peak of government bonds, the implementation of loose policies, and the impact of external demand on the macro - economy. The bond market is not bearish in the short - term, and the 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and short - term trading opportunities [80][81]. 3.3 Important Economic Calendar for May The report provides a list of important economic indicators to be released in May and their market expected values, including foreign exchange reserves, export and import data, PPI, CPI, and PMI [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US trade friction is at a standstill with high uncertainty, and there are still domestic policy expectations. In the short term, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing some support for the raw material demand. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, and the supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose. Before the holiday, it is expected to fluctuate mainly. To avoid policy risks, it is recommended to continue to reduce short positions and hold a light position during the holiday [4][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke 3.1.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The second - round price increase of spot coke has started but not yet landed, and the spot price is mainly stable. The coke 09 contract rose 0.87% to 1566 as of Friday's close. The freight rate of coke by truck remained stable last week [8][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and coke supply increased significantly. As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises nationwide was 75.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 66.85 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.52 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking was 87.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 47.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 tons [28][34] 3.1.3 Demand - Hot metal production accelerated its recovery, and steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. As of April 25, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,300 tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points. The speculative sentiment was average, export profits declined, and the spot trading volume of building materials remained low [37][40] 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills made rigid - demand purchases, coke enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of April 25, the total coke inventory decreased by 29,600 tons week - on - week to 1.0148 million tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 25,200 tons week - on - week to 243,580 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 23,900 tons week - on - week to 104,870 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory increased by 19,500 tons week - on - week to 666,350 tons [43][46] 3.1.5 Profit - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and the coke futures profit fluctuated. The national sample of 30 independent coke enterprises had a loss of 9 yuan per ton of coke, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan. The futures profit of coke 09 increased by 3.45 yuan per ton week - on - week to 323.2 yuan per ton [54] 3.1.6 Valuation - Coke 09 had a slight premium, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 13.5 week - on - week to - 79.39, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 week - on - week to - 28.5 [58] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The spot price mainly weakened. The coking coal 09 contract rose 0.37% to 956 as of Friday's close [4][61] 3.2.2 Supply - The impact of coal mine production cuts was limited, the operating rate of coal washing plants increased, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the import of coking coal from January to March 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As of April 25, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants nationwide was 63.01%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coal was 534,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons. From January to March 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 27.47 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 2.32% [72][76] 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises reduced their inventories, coal mines accumulated inventories, and the total inventory remained flat. As of April 25, the total coking coal inventory increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week to 2.61251 million tons. Among them, the inventory of coking coal in mining enterprises increased by 212,600 tons week - on - week to 354,600 tons; the port inventory decreased by 125,900 tons week - on - week to 324,790 tons; the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 3,500 tons week - on - week to 181,680 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 71,700 tons week - on - week to 968,960 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory decreased by 17,500 tons week - on - week to 782,480 tons [79][82] 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 had a slight discount, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 3.5 week - on - week to 14, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged week - on - week at - 48 [101]

| 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 焦炭 | 准一级冶金焦 | 国产 | 1900 | 出厂 | 河南省/郑 | 河南森蒂环保科技有限 | | | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 州市 | 公司VIP | | 焦炭 | 一级3-6mm | 仟越星 | 980元/ | 出厂 | 河南省 | 河南仟越星化工科技有 | | | | | 吨 | 价 | | 限公司VIP | | 焦炭 | 二级3-6mm | 仟越星 | 1100 | 出厂 | 河南省 | 河南仟越星化工科技有 | | | | | 元/吨 | 价 | | 限公司VIP | | | 25-38 | 国产 | 1700 | 市场 | | 河南利维特化工科技有 | | | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 河南省 | 限公司 | | | 准一级冶金焦 | 华晟能 | 1500 | 出厂 | 山西省/运 | 河津市华晟能源有限公 | | | | 源 | 元/吨 | 价 | 城市 | 司 | ...

东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-04-28 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 政策信号错综复杂，黄金价格大幅震荡 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 郭泽洋 从业资格证号：F03136719 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黄金：观点总结&操作建议 | 货币属性 | 本周美元指数呈现剧烈震荡走势，周初因特朗普施压美联储降息并质疑其政策独 立性，市场恐慌情绪加剧拖累美指跌至97.923新低。随后特朗普态度转向缓和， | | --- | --- | | | 明确无意解雇鲍威尔并释放贸易摩擦缓和信号，美元指数于周三反弹至99.86。周 | | | 五美元指数微涨0.07%并实现三周来首次周度上行，市场对美联储独立性担忧与政 | | | 策预期差的反复博弈，但美元中长期信用受损及流动性虹吸效应仍令其上行承压。 | | 金融属性 | 周初特朗普炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔加剧市场对货币政策政治 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 国内再提超常规逆周期调节 美国关税政策高度不确定 2025 年 4 月 27 日 ⚫ 主要结论 中共中央政治局强调，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，再提超常规 逆周期调节。4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和 经济工作。会议指出，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自 己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。宏观政 策基调方面，会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，对宏观政策 的落地提出一定要求；会议再提超常规逆周期调节。财政政策方面，会议强 调，加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。货币政策方面， 会议强调，适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性 金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。后期，基础货币投放， 仍需关注国债买卖、买断式逆回购、新的结构性货币政策工具以及新型政策 性金融工具。由于美国关税政策，我国对外贸易相对承压，人民币短期有贬 值压力；但是，中长期来看，人民币仍然不宜过度贬值。从年内在岸美元兑 人民币走势来看，或以宽幅波动为主，区间或为 7.0 至 ...

在特朗普政府掀起关税战下，美国普通民众的购物正迎来"涨价潮"，连曾经实惠的网购也变得更昂贵了。 继美国亚马逊网站近千种商品涨价后，另外两家来自中国的跨境电商平台SHEIN、拼多多旗下TEMU也已上调了部分在美商品售价。 在4月16日，华尔街见闻就注意到，TEMU、SHEIN均向美国用户发出了涨价通知，称由于最近全球贸易规则和关税的变化，运营成本有所增加，公司将从4月 25日起进行价格调整。 如今4月25日期限一过，调价政策落地，不少美国网友在社交媒体上感叹， 一夜之间购物车里的东西都变贵了。 有人发现，在SHEIN平台上一套4月24日标价为4.39美元的泳装，25日已经涨价至8.39美元，提价幅度达到91%。而在TEMU上列出的两把露台椅，24日标价 为61.72美元，到25日标价已提升至70.17美元。 不过，据华尔街见闻了解，SHEIN、TEMU平台上商品价格上涨还不是普遍现象，或许价格上涨将是一个逐步推进的过程。 除了TEMU、SHEIN外，国际电商巨头亚马逊上的卖家，早就开始了涨价的动作。 根据SmartScout数据，自4月9日以来，美国亚马逊网站上近1000种商品的价格出现明显上涨，涵盖服装、家居 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is experiencing a volatile decline with a retracement of bullish sentiment, while silver sees a recovery in risk appetite. The strength analysis shows neutrality for both gold and silver, with price ranges of 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 103 to 99.5 this week. The long - term narrative of gold remains unchanged, but it has entered an overbought zone technically. The reversal of Trump's stance on trade and the Fed's independence has alleviated market concerns and interrupted the upward trend of gold. The first risk point of gold price decline (end of Sino - US trade friction) has slightly eased, increasing the trading difficulty of gold. It is recommended to consider using option tools for trading allocation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Changes**: This week, London gold fell by - 0.86%, and London silver rose by 3.17%. Among domestic varieties, the closing prices and weekly price changes of various gold and silver futures contracts are as follows: for example, the closing price of Shanghai silver 2506 was 8,280 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.47%; the closing price of Shanghai gold 2506 was 787.20 yuan, with a weekly decrease of - 0.48% [3][4]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai silver 2506 increased by 66,534 hands compared to the previous week, and the position decreased by 31,143 hands; the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2506 increased by 321,047 hands, and the position decreased by 29,998 hands. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX silver futures and options increased by 41,063 hands, while those of COMEX gold decreased by 21,132 hands [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.5 million ounces to 41.71 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 49.8%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2 million ounces to 497.91 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 30 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 13.62 tons to 923 tons [35][37][39]. - **Spread Changes**: The overseas spot - futures spreads of gold and silver, domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads all showed certain changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold main contract spread fell to - 11.44 US dollars/ounce, and the domestic gold spot - futures spread was - 2.27 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [9][16]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, and retail and food service sales, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [63]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: The report shows data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [66]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report provides the Fed's rate - cut probability data at different time points, showing that the market expects a high probability of rate cuts in the future [74]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 6.02 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 159.84 tons [46][48]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53].

【锌】五一假期临近，市场备货意愿一般。基本面来看，秘鲁一大型铜矿出现异动，叠加国内社库持续 录减，情绪转好与库存低位暂支撑锌价；但传统旺季临近尾声，镀锌下游订单低于往年同期水平，需求 疲软令锌价承压。整体看下周锌价或延续震荡区间，关注2.24-2.32万。 【锡】本周现货锡价震荡上行，周涨幅2.33%。宏观面来看，周初市场对美联储独立性存疑，美元承压 低位运行，叠加特朗普对华关税态度缓和，市场紧张情绪有所缓解，带动锡价重心上移。基本面来看， 刚果（金）Bisie锡矿虽已恢复运营，但需要一定时间进行转化，叠加佤邦虽于周三开展曼相矿山复工 复产座谈会，但具体复产时间不定，短期供紧格局难改，支撑锡价。需求端看，近期锡价小幅上涨，但 镀锡板及锡化工产品市场需求平稳。关注佤邦复产情况以及宏观面消息。预计下周锡价延续震荡走势， 关注锡价25.5-27万区间。 【镍】本周内镍铁主流报价在975-1000元/镍点之间，市场成交价格持续走低。镍板现货方面，持货商 积极出货，下游用家刚需采购，实际成交一般。精炼镍两市库存压力犹存，不锈钢成品需求尚未见大幅 好转，印尼镍产品增税新政下落地，下周现货镍价或有小幅走高，建议关注12.5 ...

▍ 2 0 2 5Q1银行股占主动型基金重仓股比例为3 . 0 3%，较2 0 2 4Q4回落0 . 3 7pc t。 2 0 2 5年一季度，市场风格偏向成长，银行板块持仓略有回落。4月开始，美国关税政策的不确定性和业绩期扰动驱使市场避险 情绪上升，在此背景下，银行板块相对收益受市场风格影响较大，且整体仍保持较好的绝对收益逻辑。 ▍ 股份行和农商行持仓比例提升，国有行和城商行持仓比例回落。 文 ｜ 肖斐斐 林楠 彭博 李鑫 胡家俊 2 0 2 5年一季度，市场投资风格更趋多元，银行股占主动型基金重仓股比例较上季度末的阶段性高位小幅回落0 . 3 7 p c t。展望后 续，短期看，中美贸易摩擦对市场预期仍有影响，在此背景下低波板块具有配置价值；中期看，在宏观"审慎"和"走弱"的两种 假设情形下，银行板块相对于大部分行业而言，基本面具备相对稳健特征，相对价值显著，建议积极增配。 截至2 0 2 5年一季度末，国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行占主动型基金重仓股比重分别0 . 6 5%/ 0 . 9 2%/ 1 . 2 5%/ 0 . 2 1%，较 2 0 2 4年四季度末分别- 0 . 3 7 / +0 . 1 ...

4月以来，全球见证了美国发起的史上最疯狂的关税战。这场由特朗普发起的全球"无差别攻击"，不仅 造成全球股市暴跌、金融秩序崩溃，也给包括中国储能电池在内的锂电行业带来巨大伤害。 4月15日，关税风暴再起，白宫公布对中国商品最高加征关税达245%。据《纽约时报》报道，锂电关税 税率，史无前例地达到173%。仅仅两个半月的时间，储能电池关税税率就从10.9%飙升至173%，翻了 近16倍。 一、关税两个半月翻16倍 美国对中国锂电池的关税究竟是如何加到173%的？这要追溯到7年前，锂电池行业从那天起便历经多轮 关税进逼。 | | 美国对中国动力及储能电池关税加征历程(截至2025年4月15日) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 制图/华夏能源网 | | | 时间 | 动力电池 | 储能电池 | | 基础关税 | 3. 4% | 3. 4% | | 2018年 | 301关税增加7.5%(共10.9%) | 301关税增加7.5%(共10.9%) | | 2024年9月 | 301关税增至25%(共28.4%) | 1 | | 2025年2月 | 对中国商品额外关税增加10% (共38.4%) ...