惠誉：贸易战和政策不确定性破坏2025年全球信用前景。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. Each product faces a unique set of market conditions, with both bullish and bearish factors influencing their prices. The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, trade policies, and weather conditions [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meal - **Market Conditions**: US soybeans were nearly flat on Tuesday, with a minor adjustment in the USDA area report and a muted market reaction. Favorable weather and the trade war are pressuring US soybeans, but low valuations provide some support. In China, the spot price of soybean meal fell by about 10 yuan, with a high but decreasing oil mill operating rate, weakening meal sales, and strong提货. The domestic port soybean inventory was 8.09 million tons, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons, showing a continuous inventory build - up trend [2]. - **Cost and Supply**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal contracts such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. The current oil mill crushing volume is at a record high for the same period, leading to reduced downstream buying interest, faster inventory build - up, and a depressed domestic soybean meal valuation. Although the import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating due to low valuations, EPA policy support, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, the overall supply of soybeans or protein remains excessive [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the mixed market situation, it is recommended to test long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in June, while production showed a mixed trend. Brazil's expected soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in June have changed compared to previous forecasts. The domestic oil market was oscillating on Tuesday, with weak global oil import data weighing on prices. However, low Indian inventories, potential minor inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in June, and biodiesel policy support provided some upward momentum [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy draft has supported the oil price center, but the current high valuation limits the upside potential due to factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, macroeconomic conditions, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating view of the oil market [9]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined slightly. The spot prices of different sugar producers showed mixed trends. In the first half of June, Brazil's central - southern region had a significant decrease in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production compared to the same period last year. The delivery volume of the July raw sugar futures contract is expected to be the lowest since 2014 [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the low - price and low - volume delivery of the July raw sugar contract, the chaotic domestic futures spread structure, and the high profit margin of out - of - quota sugar imports after the decline in foreign prices, the sugar price may continue to fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weakly oscillating. The US 2025 cotton planting area forecast by USDA is higher than market expectations, and the US cotton good - to - excellent rate has improved compared to the previous week. In China, the recent expectation of Sino - US negotiations is supporting the cotton price, but the rapidly strengthening basis is unfavorable for downstream consumption, slowing down the inventory reduction speed, and there is a possibility of import quota issuance in the future [14][15]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price may continue to oscillate. Pay close attention to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [15]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The national egg price was stable with some declines. The supply changed little, while the demand was conservative, and industry players were cautious. The egg price is expected to be stable in most areas and slightly weaker in some regions [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the weak and stable spot price, the time is unfavorable for long positions in the near - month contracts. However, the later the seasonal price increase occurs, the greater the potential divergence in the peak - season contracts. Considering the large production capacity and insufficient de - stocking, the medium - term strategy is to wait for price rebounds to short, and in the short term, reduce short positions at low prices or adopt a wait - and - see approach for near - month contracts [17]. Pigs - **Spot Market**: The domestic pig price continued to rise on the previous day. The supply of pigs for slaughter may still be limited, but most downstream buyers are resistant to high - price pigs, and the supply of pigs for slaughter may gradually increase, limiting the upward space of the pig price [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, it is recommended to take short - term long positions at appropriate low prices before delivery. For contracts in the second half of the year such as 11 and 01, since their valuations are above the cost line and they are likely to experience a transition from inventory build - up to de - stocking, wait for high - price opportunities to short [20].

| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1883.500 30.9↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1367.9 | -0.90↓ | | 期货盘面 | 515.60 -5.50↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 EC2508-EC2510价差 | | | 355.50 | -11.40↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 239.74 | +21.40↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 36335 | | -4141↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2123.24 186.10↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,619.19 | -464.27↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1861.51 -8.08↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1369.34 ...

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

Group 1 - European companies are facing a "very, very serious" shortage of rare earth magnets, prompting the EU ambassador to call for urgent resolution from China [1] - The shortage stems from China's export controls on key minerals, including rare earth magnets, implemented in response to U.S. tariffs [1] - China's rare earth magnet exports have significantly declined, disrupting global automotive and high-tech supply chains, with European firms expressing the most concern [1] Group 2 - The EU's contradictory stance towards China is evident, as it attempts to engage in trade while simultaneously portraying China as a common threat with the U.S. [2] - In 2024, the EU plans to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, highlighting the ongoing tensions despite the need for cooperation [2] - The EU's actions, such as excluding Chinese products from public procurement, reflect a protectionist approach that undermines economic dialogue [5] Group 3 - The trade dynamics reveal a significant trade surplus for China with the EU, which increased by nearly 23% in the first five months of the year, reaching a record $117 billion [7] - The EU's current predicament is a result of its strategic double standards, seeking concessions from China while maintaining pressure [7] - A genuine "fair competition environment" requires mutual respect and equal rules, rather than unilateral demands from the EU [7]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Canada's implementation of a "digital services tax" targeting U.S. tech companies, prompting President Trump to halt all trade negotiations with Canada [1][3] - Canadian officials are urging the government to diversify trade relationships to reduce reliance on the U.S., with British Columbia Premier David Eby advocating for building new global partnerships [1][3] - The digital services tax is set to take effect in June, with Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland asserting that there will be no negotiations to cancel it, signaling a firm stance against U.S. pressure [3][4] Group 2 - The trade conflict is not new, as it stems from a tax law passed by Canada last year, which aims to address the perceived market dominance of U.S. tech firms in Canada and their tax avoidance practices [4] - Canada has also taken actions against Chinese companies, such as Hikvision, citing national security concerns, which has drawn criticism from China for lacking transparency and fairness [4][5] - The economic relationship between Canada and the U.S. is deeply intertwined, with Canada exporting three-quarters of its goods to the U.S., indicating the potential economic ramifications of escalating trade tensions [8]

"所以我要做的是，我会给他们写一封信说'我们非常感谢你们，我们知道你们不能做我们需要的那些事 情，因此你要支付30%、35%'，或我们决定的任何数字，"特朗普补充说，"因为我们之间也有非常大的 贸易逆差。" 特朗普还称，他没有考虑延长各国与美国谈判贸易协议的7月9日截止日期。在此前一天，他威胁称，如 果没有在这一日期前达成协议，一些国家将被完全禁止与美国进行贸易，"但在大多数情况下，我们将 确定一个数字"。 当地时间7月1日，特朗普在"空军一号"上接受媒体采访。 视频截图 英国《金融时报》2日指出，特朗普的言辞表明，他仍然愿意在与贸易伙伴的谈判中采取强硬立场，尽 管早些时候面对严重的市场动荡，他退缩了。 观察者网消息，在距离美国设定的关税谈判最后期限不足一周之际，美国总统特朗普再次升级了对日本 的贸易施压，公开质疑能否在7月9日前与日本达成协议，并威胁若谈判破裂，将把对日本的关税提高至 30%或35%。 当地时间7月1日，特朗普在"空军一号"上对媒体表示，"我不确定我们是否会达成协议。我对此表示怀 疑，日本人非常强硬"。 特朗普再次抱怨日本没有从美国进口足够的汽车，而对于进口美国大米这样"一个简单的要求"，日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding macroeconomic policies and their implications on financial markets, particularly focusing on the potential risks of resource misallocation and the impact of monetary policy on asset bubbles [8][21][49]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The conversation emphasizes that significant financial collapses are often preceded by the accumulation of asset bubbles, which are typically fostered by overly accommodative monetary policies [8][21]. - The speaker argues that the Federal Reserve's prolonged low-interest-rate environment has led to a misallocation of resources, particularly in the corporate sector, where debt levels have surged without corresponding profit growth [31][32]. - The speaker expresses concern over the current economic environment, suggesting that the government’s response mechanisms to market signals have weakened, leading to unprecedented fiscal deficits even in a strong employment context [48][49]. Group 2: Resource Misallocation - The speaker points out that corporate debt in the U.S. increased from approximately $6 trillion in 2010 to $10 trillion, a 65% rise, while corporate profits only grew by 29% over the same period [31][32]. - There is a notable shift in how companies allocate their capital, with a significant portion directed towards stock buybacks rather than capital expenditures, indicating a distortion in capital structure [37][38]. - The speaker highlights the prevalence of "zombie companies" in the market, which continue to operate without facing the risks of bankruptcy due to the lack of market pressure [41][42]. Group 3: Economic and Political Landscape - The discussion touches on the political climate's influence on economic conditions, suggesting that the current administration's policies may exacerbate existing economic vulnerabilities [102][108]. - The speaker warns that the rise of protectionism and populism could undermine free trade principles, which are essential for economic growth [110][111]. - The potential for a trade conflict with China is discussed, with the speaker indicating that the timing of such a conflict could significantly impact the U.S. economy and market stability [125][126]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - In light of the current economic signals, the speaker suggests that investors should consider defensive positions, such as U.S. Treasury bonds, as a safe haven amid market volatility [145][151]. - The speaker expresses skepticism about cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, viewing them as speculative and lacking a clear purpose in the current economic landscape [156][162]. - The importance of focusing on technological advancements and innovation as the battleground for economic competition with China is emphasized, rather than traditional industries [136][142].

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has historically performed well in July, with an average appreciation of 2.8% against the US dollar over the past five years, and a 9% increase in the last six months [1] - Analysts attribute the yen's strength in July to multiple factors, including adjustments in the Bank of Japan's policies, position adjustments before the summer holidays, and exporters converting overseas earnings into yen [1] - The overall weakness of the US dollar is considered a primary driver for the yen's appreciation this month [1] Group 2 - Following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's members regarding potential interest rate hikes, the yen has strengthened, with a 40% probability of a rate hike in October and over 50% by year-end [2] - Expectations of progress in trade negotiations and a more hawkish signal from the Bank of Japan are anticipated to support the yen [2] - The dollar's performance is likely to influence the direction of the yen, with the dollar index having dropped approximately 10.8% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [2] Group 3 - The trend in the foreign exchange market is expected to be a weaker dollar, largely due to trade tensions, with potential escalations in trade conflicts anticipated [3]

Group 1 - The announcement by Trump to terminate all trade negotiations with Canada has caused significant shock in global markets, leading to a tense situation in North American supply chains [3][14] - The conflict stems from Canada's decision to impose a 3% digital services tax on U.S. tech giants, which has led to a potential retaliatory response from the U.S. [3][7] - The close economic ties between the U.S. and Canada, particularly in the automotive industry, mean that disruptions could severely impact manufacturing operations across North America [11][14] Group 2 - The trade conflict coincides with a deadline set by Trump for negotiations with major trading partners, which has created internal divisions within the White House regarding the approach to take [16][18] - Other countries, including the EU, Japan, and India, are preparing countermeasures or adopting delaying tactics in response to U.S. trade policies, indicating a broader escalation of trade tensions [22][24][26] - The ongoing trade disputes have already shown negative impacts, such as a 55.4% drop in U.S. auto exports to the UK and a 0.3% decline in personal consumption expenditures in the U.S. [28][30] Group 3 - Trump's aggressive stance towards the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Powell, reflects a desire to influence monetary policy to support his economic agenda, which may have long-term implications for market stability [30][34] - The current trade tensions and Trump's policies have led to a mixed market response, with stock prices rising but underlying economic uncertainties increasing [32][34] - The situation is evolving rapidly, with the potential for significant global repercussions as the deadline for trade negotiations approaches [36][38]