Group 1 - China has recently refused to accept Boeing aircraft, creating an opportunity for India to take over the orders that China has paused [2][3] - Indian Airlines, controlled by Tata Group, is interested in acquiring the Boeing aircraft to enhance its operational capacity and service levels, aiming to expand its market presence [2][3] - The ongoing US-China trade war may motivate India to leverage the acquisition of Boeing aircraft as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations with the US [3] Group 2 - India's decision to impose a 12% protective tariff on certain steel products is seen as a direct move against China, which has become India's second-largest source of steel imports [5] - Despite being the second-largest crude steel producer globally, India has a low capacity utilization rate and has been a net importer of finished steel, heavily relying on Chinese supplies [5] - The imposition of tariffs may not significantly impact Indian manufacturers, as they still depend on Chinese products due to technological and management shortcomings in their steel industry [5][6] Group 3 - China's support in building advanced steel production facilities in India contrasts sharply with India's recent tariff actions, highlighting a potential betrayal of cooperation [6] - China's Ministry of Commerce has expressed strong opposition to any country sacrificing Chinese interests for tariff agreements with the US, indicating potential retaliatory measures [6]

观察者网消息，美国财政部长贝森特22日被爆向投资者承认，眼下中美关税对峙僵局"难以为继"，并称预 计"短时间内"将出现缓和态势后，"先眨眼"的美国总统特朗普再度释放"降温"信号。 据美联社23日报道，当地时间周二（22日），特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室表示，在关税谈判期间他不会对 中国采取 "强硬手段"，并"乐观"认为能够"相当迅速地"与之达成一项协议，"大幅下调"对中国进口商品加 征的145%巨额关税。 在被问到是否会对中国采取"强硬态度"时，特朗普否认说："不，我不会说'我要对中方强硬'。我们会以非 常友好的态度对待他们，他们也会友好相待，然后我们拭目以待会发生什么。" 继续凭空造牌，他在回答另一个问题时又补充称，如果未与中国达成贸易协议，"我们只需要设定（关 税）数字就行"。 《今日美国》报道称，尽管中美之间的正式贸易谈判尚未启动，但特朗普仍摆出一副信誓旦旦的模 样，"这份协议对于每个人而言都是公平的。而且我认为这个（谈判）过程很快会完成。" 在后续提问中，特朗普也重申了不想继续提高对华关税的态度。在谈到高达145%的对华关税时，他声称， 针对中国进口商品的关税税率不会维持在当前水平，"145%的税率非常高 ...

"很多东西，我认为其他国家是没有办法替代的。"斯贝乐电器（浙江）股份有限公司CEO王鑫对第一财 经记者表示。 斯贝乐总部位于浙江省台州市，主要产品包括商用冰淇淋机，冰沙机，奶茶机，泡茶机，制冰机等商用 茶饮设备等，美国是其海外第一大市场。美国政府滥施关税，给中国制造业带来困扰，过高的关税影响 出口，但王鑫认为中国企业的竞争力不会消失。 台州地理环境"七山一水二分田"，并没有发展制造业的优质条件，但这里有不少企业已经走向全球。台 州企业家极能适应和改造环境，如果土地不够，他们填海造地，并在上面建造起厂房；如果市场不够 大，他们愿意飞到欧洲小国去开拓边缘市场。近期，第一财经采访了部分台州企业，了解他们如何应对 这场骤然而来的关税战。 "不会停，继续生产" 王鑫是斯贝乐的二代接班人。 斯贝乐的产品主打海外市场，美国又是重中之重。斯贝乐在美国的四个城市新泽西、亚特兰大、休斯 敦、洛杉矶都租用了仓储设施，基本上做到辐射全美市场。 据王鑫介绍，斯贝乐目前海外收入占比约70%，海外收入中美国占比60%，欧洲占比25%。美国毫无合 理性的关税政策之后，斯贝乐向美国出口的产品被加征了高达170%的关税。 在关税落地之前，斯贝乐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "America First Investment Policy" memorandum continues the Trump administration's stance on strengthening foreign investment reviews, focusing on a "differentiated" review mechanism that relaxes investment restrictions from allies while strictly controlling investments from "foreign adversaries" [1][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Policy Framework - The memorandum aims to promote the development of high-tech industries like AI domestically while welcoming investments from allies and partners, provided they align with U.S. interests and benefit the American people [5]. - Investments from allied countries will have a "fast-track" process, facilitating easier access to U.S. technology sectors, but must avoid collaboration with foreign adversaries [5]. Regulatory Measures - The Trump administration has previously issued several executive orders regarding foreign investment restrictions, including Executive Order 13959 and its revision 14032, as well as Biden's 14032 and the recent 14105 [4]. - The policy framework includes various entity lists for investment control, such as NS-CMIC List, SDN List, MEU List, and Entity List, with additional attention to CMC List and UFLPA Entity List [4]. Entity Lists and Their Implications - The NS-CMIC List targets U.S. persons' investments in Chinese military-related companies, with 68 entities listed as of January 2025, primarily in capital goods and technology hardware sectors [9]. - The SDN List includes entities that face asset freezes and transaction bans, with over 600 Chinese entities listed, mainly related to sanctions against Russia and Iran [12][13]. - The Entity List restricts access to sensitive technologies for over 900 Chinese entities, particularly in software, hardware, and semiconductor sectors [17]. - The MEU List is used to control items for military purposes, with 71 Chinese entities listed as of January 2025 [18]. - The CMC List, established by the Department of Defense, includes 134 Chinese entities, primarily in capital goods and technology sectors, with potential future restrictions [21]. - The UFLPA Entity List focuses on products linked to forced labor allegations, with 144 Chinese entities listed, affecting various industries [23]. Future Considerations - The U.S. government may further develop new tools to limit investments in Chinese companies, although successful negotiations between the U.S. and China could render the memorandum less impactful [27].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围偏空，焦煤偏弱运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本端拖累，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月 21 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约再次走弱，日 ...

2025.04.21-04.25 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价趋势整体横盘震荡的阶段,资金方面较为偏空。中 美贸易摩擦升级不确定性的影响下，M2509预计延续宽幅震 荡，运行区间：2950-3200，可考虑区间操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价趋势整体横盘震荡的阶段,资金方面较为偏多。在供 应预期宽松及现货阶段性偏紧的影响下，M2509预计延续宽幅 震荡，运行区间：2950-3200，可考虑区间操作。 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第15周油厂大豆实际压榨量98.37万吨，开机率27.65%； 大豆库存362.24万吨，较上周增加71.81万吨，增幅24.73%；豆粕库存下 滑至29.05万吨，较上周减少28.86万吨，减幅49.84%。随着大豆通关加 速及油厂开机回升，豆粕供应压力即将得到缓解。巴西大豆收割接近尾 声，丰产预期逐步兑现，集中上市压力贴水有所下调。然而中美贸易摩 擦不断升级，下游饲料企业豆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial indicators and asset quality of the six disclosed banks are generally stable in the first quarter, with a positive outlook for the banking sector driven by increased market volatility and the sector's stable returns and index weight advantages [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Six listed banks have disclosed their Q1 2025 performance, showing overall stability but continued differentiation in earnings. For instance, Minsheng Bank reported a net interest margin improvement and a revenue increase of over 7% year-on-year, while Ping An, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Changshu Bank reported revenue changes of -13.05%, +1.35%, and +10.05% respectively [2]. - The divergence in earnings performance is attributed to the impact of last year's net interest margin decline and the effects of fair value changes in Q1 [2]. Credit Growth - The banks demonstrated strong expansion momentum, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's total loans increasing by 254.58 billion (5.02%) year-on-year, marking a recent quarterly high. Minsheng Bank also reported stable growth in deposits and loans, while Ping An Bank's loans grew by 1.1% [3]. - Overall, the credit growth and expansion are positive, aligning with marginal improvements in social financing growth, with significant focus on real credit issuance and investment in interest-bearing bonds [3]. Asset Quality - Asset quality remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios for Ping An, Chongqing Rural, and Changshu banks remaining flat or slightly improved. The provision coverage ratios for these banks are still at solid levels, indicating a cautious approach to provisioning [4]. - The banks are intensifying efforts to recognize and manage problem assets, particularly in retail lending, with future asset quality changes dependent on the recovery of household balance sheets [4]. Market Performance - The banking sector showed optimistic performance last week, with the A/H bank index rising by 4.23%, outperforming the broader market. Notable gainers included Chongqing Bank (8.8%) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (7.4%) [6]. - The influx of incremental funds into the banking sector is evident, with significant net inflows into stock ETFs and increased holdings by southbound funds in Hong Kong [7]. Investment Outlook - The banking sector is recommended for active allocation due to its defensive attributes and relative value, especially in the context of ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The sector is expected to maintain robust fundamentals compared to most industries [9]. - Specific stock recommendations focus on banks with stable profitability, attractive dividend yields, and potential for valuation recovery [9].

点击图片▲立即试听 " 我们手中的牌并不多，楼市是其中必须打好的、最重要的一张。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 所有宏大的叙事，最终都会落到一个家庭的起居之间。 2025 年春天，中美贸易摩擦不断加码，中国出口压力与日俱增，从沿海工厂到内陆中小企业，不少人开始重新计算接下来的账本：订单缩水、利 润承压，甚至员工的稳定性也打起了问号。 宏观经济的温度计，正在测量每一个家庭最重要的决策之一 —— 买不买房，换不换房？ 楼市退场？没那么简单 近日，国家统计局公布了 2025 年第一季度宏观经济的 " 成绩单 " 。在中美贸易摩擦愈演愈烈、全球供应链重新洗牌的紧张氛围下，市场的目光 集中投向了 " 出口 " 和 " 消费 " 这两大被寄予厚望的动能引擎，而它们也的确未让人失望： 一季度，中国出口同比增长 6.9% ，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 4.6% ，就连一度风光不再的投资，也靠着制造业和基建的 " 二重奏 " ，拉出 了同比 4.2% 的增长。 —— 吴晓波 然而，亮眼成绩单的第二页，一个熟悉的身影却明显掉队了 —— 一季度，我国房地产开发投资同比下降 9.9% 。 这个曾经以一己之力拉动中国经 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][7][9] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market may gradually return to fundamentals as trade friction eases. Attention has shifted to new - season supply, and the market needs to focus on the drought in US cotton - growing areas and domestic demand trends [2] - The sugar market is currently in a situation where short - term international supply and demand are tight, but the medium - term price may be under pressure. Zhengzhou sugar prices mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [5][6] - The pulp market is affected by macro - policies and supply - demand relationships. Although the trade friction has eased, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure [8][9] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract was 12,890 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton (+0.47%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,032 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,200 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1] - As of the week of April 13, 2025, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 160,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 171%. The cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.3778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [1] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated and closed higher. Trade friction has a limited impact, and the market may return to fundamentals. The USDA report was slightly bearish, and attention should be paid to the drought in US cotton - growing areas. Domestic supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract was 5,936 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,930 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - As of April 15, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, there were 37 sugar mills still in production in India, 37 fewer than the same period last year. The amount of crushed sugarcane was 271.328 million tons, a decrease of 35.292 million tons (-11.51%), and sugar production was 25.425 million tons, a decrease of 5.74 million tons (-18.42%) [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were strong. The short - term international sugar market supply and demand are tight, but the medium - term price may be under pressure. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate before the import of sugar supplements [5][6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Focus on Brazilian weather and policy changes [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,332 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.45%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [7] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some minor adjustments [7] Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices were weakly volatile. The "reciprocal tariff" policy affected the market, but the trade friction has temporarily eased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term pulp futures prices are expected to remain under pressure [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to weak", with an overall "sideways" approach [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Performance**: On the night of April 17, the main coking coal contract continued to decline, hitting a new low for the year, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement. As of the latest data, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, down 4.2% week - on - week, with the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost about 1008 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: In March, the national raw coal output reached 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, indicating continued pressure on the coking coal supply side. The Sino - US trade friction has increased the impact of macro factors, with concerns about the export of black terminal products and the need for time to improve domestic demand in real estate and infrastructure. The supply of coking coal remains high, downstream demand support is insufficient, and overseas macro negatives have recently exerted pressure, so coking coal futures continue to operate weakly [5] Coke (J) - **Price and Market Performance**: On the night of April 17, coke futures fluctuated weakly. The J2509 contract closed at 1553.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.99% during the night session. The latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, up 3.60% week - on - week, with the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost about 1583 yuan/ton [6] - **Core Logic**: The futures market shows intense long - short competition. The domestic demand for ferrous metals has been relatively weak due to the real estate and infrastructure industries in recent years. The intensification of the Sino - US trade friction in April has deepened concerns about the medium - and long - term demand for black series commodities, suppressing the market atmosphere. Although the short - term fundamentals of coking coal have improved, concerns about the cost side and medium - and long - term demand have dragged down coke futures to operate at low levels [6]