在上行方面，银价或在88.00美元区域遇到阻力。若突破此处，将把焦点转向100.00美元的整数关口和 104.00美元区域的日内阻力。 支撑位在71.37美元的月低点，低于此处为12月初的高点和12月中旬的低点，位于60.00美元区域。 米兰表示："我可能希望看到年内降息略高于一个百分点。"米兰是在特朗普宣布选择凯文.沃什担任美 联储新主席之后发表这番言论的，他对沃什上任后表现充满期待。 此外米兰还表示，对金属市场价格波动不作过多解读。 目前据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为8.9%，维持利率不变的概率为91.1%。 美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为22.5%，维持利率不变的概率为76.0%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为1.5%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为46%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 今日周三(2月4日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于87.40一线上方，今日开盘于84.75美元/盎司，截至发 稿，国际白银暂报87.71美元/盎司，上涨3.10%，最高触及88.24美元/盎司，最低下探83.22美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储理 ...

2月3日，上期所黄金期货主力合约收涨0.63%，至1093.78元/克。 继上周五和本周一大幅下跌后，周二金价跌势缓和。贵金属价格上周五夜盘巨震，最主要的影响因素在于新 任美联储主席提名公布。美国总统特朗普1月30日通过社交媒体宣布，提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下一任 美联储主席。市场对美联储主席人选的预期此前长时间集中在凯文·沃什和白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈 塞特两人。1月16日特朗普明确表示想让凯文·哈塞特"留在白宫"，沃什最终获得提名并不意外，但预期落地 仍对市场情绪产生巨大冲击。沃什主张大幅削减央行资产负债表的"鹰派"立场可能与未来潜在的降息存在矛 盾，引发海外市场对未来货币政策走向的担忧。持仓拥挤、获利盘离场导致的技术性回调，与上述担忧叠 加，最终演变为对贵金属资产的恐慌性抛售。 随着贵金属价格波动加剧，国内外交易所相继收紧了风控措施。上海期货交易所于1月30日公告，自2月3日 （星期二）收盘结算时起，白银期货AG2605、AG2606、AG2607、AG2608、AG2609、AG2610、AG2611、 AG2612、AG2701合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为17%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为1 ...

东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞向时代财经表示，现货黄金重新站上5000美元/盎司，白银价格也 大幅反弹，一方面源于市场意识到沃什"降息+缩表"的主张虽偏鹰派，但并非完全否定降息路径，市场 对美联储降息的长期预期并未消失，由沃什被提名美联储主席所导致的市场恐慌情绪有所缓和；另一方 面是前几日暴跌大部分属于市场杠杆和情绪回归正常的调整，金价估值回归理性，吸引价资者抄底，此 外程序化交易在低位触发买入信号，量化资金回补仓位。此外，本轮金价调整并非代表趋势性逆转，金 银长期牛市的逻辑仍然存在。（时代财经 何秀兰） 2月4日，现货黄金重新站上5000美元/盎司，盘中涨超2.5%。现货白银盘中突破88美元/盎司，盘中涨超 3%。 ...

近期黄金市场可谓上演了"过山车"行情，在创下历史新高后经历了大幅回调，国内黄金ETF也未能幸免，一度出现大面积跌停。黄金市场的"冰与火之歌"开 启，今日黄金再次反弹，黄金ETF国泰（518800）盘中涨超3.6%。 从中长期视角出发，黄金的上行趋势仍未完待续。货币宽松、黄金的避险属性以及全球去美元化趋势，仍是支撑黄金的中长期利好因素。当前来看，我们认 为短期剧烈回撤或不改变长期趋势，本轮牛市的美联储降息周期、逆全球化与海外不确定性、全球去美元化和央行购金等逻辑仍未逆转，长期维度上对金价 构成支撑。预计美联储年内仍可能继续降息，而在当前通胀有所回落的环境下，黄金作为不生息的资产仍将具备吸引力。 面对黄金市场的短期巨震与长期向好的格局，不同类型的投资者应采取差异化策略，兼顾短期反弹机会与长期配置价值，理性应对市场波动，规避盲目跟风 操作的风险。短期内，黄金仍处于高波动阶段，政策预期、地缘政治等因素仍可能引发价格反复，因此需控制仓位，避免过度加杠杆。 同时，需密切关注沃什提名的后续进展、美联储政策表态以及美国经济数据，及时应对政策预期变动带来的市场波动。建议投资者静待市场波动率降低，树 立配置思维，不盲目追涨杀跌。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China plans to include copper concentrate in the national reserve, leading to a general rebound in metal prices. The A - share market rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term and remain positive in the long term [2][3]. - Precious metals rebounded due to bargain - hunting. However, it is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust until volatility cools [4][5]. - Copper prices rebounded significantly because of China's plan to increase copper reserves. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to rebound [6][7]. - Aluminum prices' adjustment slowed after risk sentiment was released. The market is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level due to the co - existence of bullish and bearish factors [10]. - Cast aluminum is expected to follow the cost and oscillate as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. - Zinc prices had a weak rebound due to positive news, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. - Lead prices are expected to stabilize and weakly correct following the non - ferrous sector [13]. - Tin prices had a weak rebound due to the boost of capacity control signals, but the fundamental support is weakening [14]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate as the steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival [15]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply is strong and demand is weak [16][17]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate as the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival [18]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate as the precipitation in Argentina has improved and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing [19][20]. - Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust as the production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January [21][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump signed a temporary spending agreement, ending the partial shutdown. The Fed's officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose. The Nasdaq fell sharply. Gold and copper prices rebounded, and oil prices rose due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrate in the national reserve [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals rebounded significantly. Some investors bought on dips, and domestic consumers "bottom - fished" physical metals. The adjustment of precious metal prices is a correction of market sentiment. It is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper rebounded from a low level. China plans to increase strategic copper reserves. Geopolitical risks and the weak dollar have pushed up the metal's valuation. Overseas mines'复产 is not smooth, non - US inventories are low, and domestic inventory accumulation has slowed. Copper prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and LME aluminum rose. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The risk sentiment was released, and the market repaired the previous over - reaction. The fundamentals are weak, and aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. 3.1.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures contract rose slightly. The social inventory accumulation slowed, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased. The market is in a game between the expected production cuts during the Spring Festival and the new capacity and cost - reduction pressure after the Spring Festival. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [10]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures contract fell. Cast aluminum follows the cost and oscillates as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. 3.1.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc stabilized and oscillated. The US government's shutdown concern decreased, and the Fed's dovish statement alleviated market pessimism. The downstream buying decreased, and the domestic market is in the Spring Festival inventory accumulation cycle. Zinc prices had a weak rebound, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. 3.1.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally. The LME inventory increased, and domestic downstream enterprises are on holiday. The inventory is expected to increase, which suppresses lead prices. However, the loss of secondary lead smelters has expanded, and the price is expected to stabilize and weakly correct [13]. 3.1.9 Tin - On Tuesday, the tin futures contract had a weak rebound. The market's selling pressure was repaired due to the capacity control signal. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the supply from Myanmar and Indonesia has recovered. Tin prices are expected to have a weak rebound and repair [14]. 3.1.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading volume decreased. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - policies [15]. 3.1.11 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory increased, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.1.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The supply is tightening due to environmental protection policies and coal mine holidays, and the demand is weak as steel mills are on holiday. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to oscillate [18]. 3.1.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures fell. The precipitation in Argentina has improved, and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing. The market is expected to oscillate [19][20]. 3.1.14 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures fell slightly. The production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust [21][23]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, in both domestic and international markets [24]. 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and other products from February 2 to February 3 [25][28][30].

铂：低位震荡 钯：ETF 流出或压制价格 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 04 日 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 572. 95 | | 3.77% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 566. 81 | | 9.76% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2212. 50 | | 4. 43% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2214. 40 | | 3.78% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 450. 55 | | 8. 91% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 423.00 | | 8. 74% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.724.00 | | 1. 35% | | | | 伦敦现货把金(前日) | 1.741.50 | | 0. 78% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日 ...

1.一位美国官员表示，伊朗革命卫队原计划于上周日和本周一在霍尔木兹海峡进行实弹军事演习， 但在收到美国的警告后取消了演习。 2.一位白宫官员表示，美联储理事米兰已辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职。自去年 9 月加入美联 储以来，米兰在该职位上一直处于休假状态。在继任者获得确认前，他将继续担任美联储理事。米 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284 号） 研究局限性和风险提示 2026 年 2 月 4 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1096.84 | 1093.780 | 20821 | 21446 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1 ...

贵金属日报 2026-02-04 周二，贵金属从此前的多头踩踏离场转为震荡修复。在市场挤出杠杆头寸后黄金重回基本面。 首先，美国 ISM-PMI 数据的超预期表现缓解市场对美国经济的担忧，其次，本轮在沃什被提名 后的鹰派预期行情走完后，资金重新聚焦美联储后续降息周期的落地路径。 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 4.20 %，报 1108.80 元/克，沪银涨 5.93 %，报 22393.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 6.83 %， 报 4970.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 10.27 %，报 84.92 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.28 %，美元指数报 97.37 ； 白银方面，在前期趋势性上涨过程中，盘面积聚大量投机杠杆资金，叠加宏观预期快速转向、 月末合约移仓换月的双重冲击，资金集中平仓引发踩踏式下跌，完成对高杠杆资金的快速清洗， 当前亦随黄金同步进入杠杆出清后的震荡整固阶段。 此外，现阶段正处于沃什 5 月正式上台前的政策空档期，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰及巴尔金的 鸽派表态为前几个交易日大幅下挫提供了反弹空间。 【策略观点】 周二贵金属结束多头踩踏，转入震荡整理，杠杆出清 ...

持续突破历史新高纪录后，国际金价近期走出"过山车"行情。 1月31日，现货黄金盘中大跌超12%，创40年来最大单日跌幅，最低触及4682美元/盎司；2月2日市场延续下跌趋势，最低触及4402美元/盎司，年内涨幅从 30%骤降至4%，前期涨势近乎抹平；而时至今日，国际金价在经历连续巨震后，上演深V反弹，重新站上5000美元/盎司关口，震荡行情加剧。 这场惊心动魄的行情，让此前持续加速上涨的贵金属市场瞬间降温，更让全球投资者陷入对"避险资产神话"的重新审视。当避险资产成为风险来源，投资者 还能持有黄金吗？黄金的上涨趋势是否还能延续？ 巨震溯源 1、导火索：沃什获提名，鹰派预期升温 黄金本轮暴跌的直接触发因素是特朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下任美联储主席。 从凯文·沃什的主张来看，其过往以坚定的通胀鹰派著称，曾公开反对量化宽松并主张快速缩表，被视为美联储独立性的捍卫者；但近年来其立场转向务 实，公开支持降息，称不降息才是对美联储信誉的最大威胁，这一调整与特朗普希望更快降息的诉求形成表面契合，形成鹰派框架结合鸽派信号的独特组 合。即便如此，市场仍聚焦于其鹰派历史立场，担忧其上台后将推动"降息+缩表" ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息 不止100个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。 不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标 之前，货币政策仍需保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。 评：美联储内部依然存在诸多分歧，市场开始推测沃什上台之 后的政策变动情况。美国政府停摆危机解除，或提升风险偏 好。白银或跟随黄金被动波动，中期暂看高位震荡。关注黄 金、白银相互影响。 【短评-PTA】1月PTA月均负荷在77.2%附近，较12月提升 3.9%，较去年同期下降2.3%。目前PTA负荷至76.6%。评：2月来 看，新凤鸣原计划有套装置存检修计划，不过目前推迟。2月 PTA可能无新增检修计划，而需求端在春节前后，终端面临放 假，聚酯负荷降至年内低点，PTA供需预期偏弱，预计大幅累 库。成本端，PX供需预期偏弱，成本端原油高波动。PTA短线过 渡。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月04日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：ca ...