1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has recovered, leading to a general rebound in major assets. In the domestic market, it has followed the overseas trend and continued to recover. The market is gradually recovering from the early - month decline, with short - term shock recovery and dominant structural opportunities [2][3]. - The adjustment of precious metal prices is not over yet, and they may show a wide - range shock trend in the short term [5]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and the 1 - month non - farm data to be announced tomorrow should be focused on [7]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term shock adjustment due to seasonal supply - demand weakness [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be in a shock - favorable trend as the supply pressure may decrease during the Spring Festival [10]. - Cast aluminum will maintain a shock trend due to the suspension of production during the Spring Festival and weak supply - demand [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [13]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a stable consolidation before the Spring Festival [15]. - Tin prices are expected to continue a weak rebound, but the rebound space is limited [16]. - Steel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, and the inventory accumulation and macro - policy trends should be focused on [17]. - Iron ore prices are expected to show a shock trend in the short term [19]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to show a shock trend in the short term [20]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to show a shock trend in the short term [22]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be in a shock - adjustment operation in the short term [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The ruling party in Japan won a landslide victory in the February House of Representatives election. The prime minister said that food tax cuts would be financed through non - tax revenues and subsidy reviews without issuing deficit - financing bonds. The Japanese stock market rose nearly 4%, and the yen appreciated 0.85% against the US dollar. The market risk appetite continued to recover, with US stocks rising across the board, the 10Y US Treasury yield rising to 4.19%, and gold and silver prices rebounding. Copper and oil prices continued to rise by more than 1%. This week, attention should be paid to the US January non - farm payrolls, CPI, and December retail data [2]. - Domestic: Last week was a vacuum period for economic data and policies. The domestic market followed the overseas trend and further recovered. The A - share market continued to recover on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4123 points. The market is gradually recovering from the early - month decline, driven by the rebound of overseas technology stocks and the return of pre - holiday long - position funds. It is expected to be in a shock - recovery state in the short term, with dominant structural opportunities. This week, attention should be paid to the January CPI and financial data [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce. The rise was mainly due to the decline of the US dollar index and the increase in market risk - aversion sentiment caused by political changes in the UK. However, CFTC持仓 reports show that speculative funds have been continuously reducing their net long positions in gold and silver futures and options, especially in silver, where the net long positions have been reduced to a nearly one - year low. The adjustment of precious metal prices is not over yet, and they may show a wide - range shock trend in the short term [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded steadily, and LME copper rebounded to around $13000. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading improved, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks before the holiday. LME inventory rose to 184,000 tons, and COMEX inventory continued to rise to 590,000 tons. Economists expect the US January non - farm payrolls to increase by 55,000, and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%. If the non - farm report is better than expected, technology stocks are expected to continue to rise, which will support copper prices in the medium term. The Fed's interest - rate cut window may be after April. In the short term, the probability of large - scale quantitative tightening is low. From a fundamental perspective, the shortage pattern in the mining end remains, North American inventory continues to rise at a high level, and domestic consumption in traditional industries such as cables is weak. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,540 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. LME aluminum closed at $3130 per ton, up 0.64%. The spot SMM average price was 23,400 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton, with a discount of 170 yuan/ton. According to SMM, on February 9, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 857,000 tons, a net increase of 19,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 286,500 tons, a net increase of 12,500 tons. The market is concerned about the upcoming US employment and inflation data. The overnight decline of the US dollar index boosted aluminum prices to rebound slightly. Fundamentally, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to increase significantly. Downstream enterprises have basically completed inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, and consumption is expected to remain weak. After the Spring Festival, the maximum increase in aluminum ingot inventory is expected to exceed 1.1 million tons. Due to seasonal supply - demand weakness, aluminum prices are in a short - term shock adjustment [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2868 yuan/ton, up 1.45%. The national average spot price of alumina was 2646 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a premium of 26 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina was $309 per ton, down $0.5 per ton. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 243,000 tons, an increase of 24,626 tons, and the factory warehouse was 0 tons, unchanged. The alumina spot market is dull. Attention should be paid to the capacity changes on the supply side. Two alumina plants in Guangxi that previously cut production plan to resume production in the next two days. During the Spring Festival, due to transportation and holiday factors, some manufacturers may cut production, and the short - term supply pressure of alumina may decrease slightly, with a shock - favorable trend [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22,615 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The SMM spot ADC12 price was 23,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The Jiangxi Baotai spot ADC12 price was 23,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made aluminum was 2894 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed aluminum was 2736 yuan/ton, up 182 yuan/ton. The exchange inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 621 tons. As the Spring Festival approaches, most cast aluminum enterprises plan to stop production from February 5 - 13 and resume production mainly after the eighth day of the first lunar month or after the Lantern Festival. The average shutdown period is about 2 days longer than last year. Due to the extended shutdown period and weak consumption, the supply - demand situation remains weak, and cast aluminum maintains a shock trend [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc 2603 showed a weak shock during the day and the center of gravity shifted down at night. LME zinc first declined and then rebounded. In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was concentrated at 24,615 - 24,775 yuan/ton, at par with the 2603 contract. In the last trading week before the holiday, traders gradually took holidays, the spot quotes decreased significantly, but the quotes remained firm. Downstream enterprises were mostly on holiday, and the trading was light, with the premium in a shock. Orion Minerals' subsidiary Prieska Copper Zinc Mine (PCZM) signed a binding prepayment agreement with a wholly - owned subsidiary of Glencore, obtaining a $250 million prepayment financing. The project is expected to start production in the Uppers area 13 months after the completion of the financing交割 in late March, and the first batch of concentrates is expected to be produced in the first quarter of 2027. As of Monday this week, the social inventory was 148,500 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons compared with last Thursday. Overall, affected by the remarks that the Fed may not quickly shrink the balance sheet and the hint that the employment growth is lower than expected before the non - farm data, the US dollar was under pressure, but zinc prices showed little reaction. The number of domestic downstream enterprises on holiday increased, the operating rate of primary enterprises declined significantly, the social inventory accumulation accelerated, and the spot premium was weakly stable. At the same time, some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, and the refined zinc output decreased significantly month - on - month. The supply and demand were both weak. As the long holiday approaches, the demand for capital reduction increases, and zinc prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [12][13]. 3.8 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead 2603 first rose and then declined during the day and showed a strong shock at night. LME lead bottomed out and rebounded. In the spot market, most cargo - holders in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions completed inventory clearance last week, and the scattered quotes were rare. Some electrolytic lead plants offered quotes with a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price for factory delivery. Most recycled lead enterprises suspended quotes, and a few recycled refined lead quotes were at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price for factory delivery. As of Monday this week, the social inventory was 49,900 tons, an increase of 9500 tons compared with last Thursday. Overall, the decline of the US dollar drove the non - ferrous metal sector to show a strong shock, and Shanghai lead stopped falling. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have gradually entered the holiday mode. The spot market quotes decreased significantly, and downstream battery enterprises also made few purchases. The supply and demand were both weak, and the social inventory continued to increase to 49,900 tons, suppressing lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will have no trend performance before the festival and will maintain a consolidation rhythm after stabilization [15]. 3.9 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of tin 2603 rebounded during the day, and the center of gravity of the shock shifted slightly upward at night. LME tin rebounded. In the spot market, it was heard that the premium of small - brand tin over the March contract was about 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton, the premium of Yun - headed tin was about 1500 - 2000 yuan/ton, and the premium of Yunnan Tin was about 2000 - 2500 yuan/ton. As of last Friday, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 68.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.24%. The social inventory was 9389 tons, a weekly decrease of 1454 tons. Overall, before the non - farm data, Hassett gave the market a "pre - warning", the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in June increased, the US dollar declined, the market risk appetite improved, and tin prices rebounded slightly following precious metals. Last week, downstream enterprises made more purchases at low prices, and the inventory decreased by 1454 tons, reducing the inventory pressure. However, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches and tin prices rebound, the spot trading has weakened, and the inventory is expected to increase again. There is no new news on the supply side, and the tin ore supply is slowly recovering. It is expected that tin prices will continue a weak rebound in the short term, but as the long holiday approaches, there is still a demand for capital risk - aversion reduction, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [16]. 3.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, steel futures showed a weak shock. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai rebar quote was 3220 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage in each region has basically ended, merchants have gradually taken holidays, and the spot trading of construction steel has dropped to zero. The prices are basically stable and waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. In the spot market, the trading has stopped before the festival, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. On the supply side, the number of steel mill maintenance before the festival has increased, and the steel output has decreased. Currently, the steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro - policy trends [17]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures showed a shock. In the spot market, the trading volume yesterday was 630,000 tons. The price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 763 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton), and the price of Super Special powder was 650 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton). From February 2 to February 8, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 24.556 million tons, a decrease of 2.136 million tons compared with the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.613 million tons, a decrease of 1.234 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.640 million tons, a decrease of 247,000 tons. The global iron ore shipping volume was 25.353 million tons, a decrease of 5.593 million tons compared with the previous period. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 19.489 million tons, a decrease of 5.721 million tons compared with the previous period. In the spot market, the trading rhythm at ports has slowed down, steel mills have basically completed inventory replenishment, the molten iron output is weakly stable, and the daily consumption of iron ore is continuously low. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post - holiday steel mill resumption expectation. On the supply side, the overseas shipping and arrival volume decreased week - on - week, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected to show a shock trend in the short term [18][19]. 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, coking coal and coke futures showed a shock decline. In the spot market, the price of main coking coal in Shanxi was 1328 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton), the spot price of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 1470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged). According to Mysteel, coal mines in the production areas have gradually taken holidays, the coking coal output has decreased, and the inventory has been transferred downstream. The mine inventory has decreased this week. In addition, the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased by 243,800 tons to 5.2361 million tons, while the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide increased by 98,400 tons to 8.242 million tons, and the total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 676,000 tons to 13.0239 million tons, reaching a nearly two - year high. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 505,600 tons week - on - week to 29.149 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77%, reaching a new high in the past year. In the spot market, although the online auction non - successful rate has decreased, the market is in a wait - and - see mood, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with prices under pressure. The production areas have gradually taken holidays, the coking coal market output has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased. The coking profit has recovered to some extent, but under the restriction of environmental protection policies, the production of coking enterprises is still restricted. The inventory of steel mills and coking enterprises is at a nearly two - year high, and the inventory replenishment has ended. It is expected to show a shock trend in the short term [20].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 20424, with a reported price of 20507 per kilogram, reflecting a 3.09% increase, and a daily high of 20963 and a low of 20103 [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an increase of 69,000 jobs for January, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4%, slightly below the four-year high of 4.5% reached in November [1] - The January employment report will also include significant revisions, indicating a potential downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs, which would mark a record low in hiring speed [1] Group 2 - The expectation of two additional interest rate cuts by the U.S. central bank this year has led to a decline in the dollar, providing support for non-yielding silver and limiting its losses [2] - Traders are focusing on important U.S. macroeconomic data releases this week for further insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai silver market showed no significant pullback on Monday, with support expected around 18500, and a potential upward target set at 25000 [3] - The Shanghai silver premium has narrowed to 1280 per gram, indicating a rapid cooling of domestic sentiment [3] - The trading range for Shanghai silver is noted to be between 19630 and 21400, with a broader range of 18470 to 22088 [3]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices have rebounded to $89.20 per ounce, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the delayed January non-farm payroll report, consumer price index, retail sales, and initial jobless claims [1] - The market anticipates only 70,000 new jobs added in January, aligning with White House economic advisor Hassett's view of a slowdown in job growth in the coming months [1] - Weak economic data could strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan's recent comments suggest that the impact of tariffs is mild, primarily borne by foreign entities rather than American citizens [3] - Despite conflicting research indicating an average tariff burden of $1,400 per household, Milan asserts that tariffs have not triggered significant inflation, with core inflation nearing target levels [3] - The Fed's internal view is that tariffs have led to one-time price increases rather than sustained inflation, which may provide more room for rate cuts under the leadership of Walsh later this year [3] Inflation and Market Expectations - The 5-year and 10-year TIPS breakeven rates are reported at 2.521% and 2.337%, respectively, indicating market expectations of an average annual inflation rate of about 2.3% over the next decade [3] - If the upcoming CPI data falls below expectations, it could further weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, with a 17.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March [3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are providing additional support for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure, while Ukraine claims to have shot down numerous Russian drones, highlighting the ongoing conflict [3] - The situation in the Middle East, with U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, adds to global uncertainty, prompting investors to turn to gold [4] Silver Market Trends - The current trend for silver is upward, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [7] - Technical analysis indicates a support level around $83.15, with a bullish MACD pattern suggesting a potential upward trend [7] - Suggested trading strategies include a long position near $77.91 with a stop loss at $77.30 and a take profit target in the $83.69 to $85.90 range [7]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen is experiencing a rebound against the US dollar, supported by expectations of potential intervention by Japanese authorities and bets on the Bank of Japan's policy normalization path [1][3] - The ruling party's recent majority in the House of Representatives raises concerns about public finance pressure while supporting fiscal policy initiatives [2][3] - Proposed fiscal expansion policies may exacerbate Japan's already strained public finances, potentially constraining the yen's performance [3] Group 2 - Global market sentiment is shifting, with reduced tensions in the Middle East leading to increased interest in high-risk assets, causing some funds to flow out of safe-haven assets like the yen [3][4] - The Japanese authorities have indicated they will closely monitor the currency market and retain the right to intervene in cases of significant deviations from fundamental exchange rates, reinforcing market intervention expectations [3] - The current technical analysis shows the USD/JPY exchange rate has broken below key support levels, indicating potential weakness, while moving averages suggest a possible recovery if support is maintained [3] Group 3 - Market sentiment indicates that yen bulls maintain some control under intervention expectations, while bets on Bank of Japan rate hikes also support the yen [4] - However, public finance pressures from fiscal expansion and the attractiveness of risk assets may limit the yen's appreciation potential, suggesting a short-term oscillating recovery pattern [4] - Future exchange rate movements will depend on US economic data, Japan's policy direction, and market intervention expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market reactions to Kevin Warsh's nomination as the Federal Reserve Chair, which raised concerns about potential liquidity tightening, leading to panic selling and significant price fluctuations [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 10, COMEX gold futures were reported at $5052.3 per ounce, down 0.5%, while COMEX silver was at $81.6 per ounce, showing a slight correction [1]. - On February 9, gold closed up 2.1% at $5084.2 per ounce, and silver rose 8% to $83.05 per ounce [1]. - Recent market trends have shown extreme volatility, with gold reaching a peak of $5600 per ounce and silver hitting $121.64 per ounce on January 29, followed by significant declines [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Movements - The sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices are attributed to heightened market sensitivity and panic selling triggered by Warsh's nomination, which led to fears of liquidity tightening [4][5]. - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term outlook for gold and silver remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central banks' continued gold purchases [3][6]. Group 3: Long-term Price Outlook - The long-term logic for rising gold and silver prices is supported by factors such as geopolitical risks, potential U.S. monetary policy changes, and ongoing demand in sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles, which will likely increase silver demand [7]. - The supply constraints in silver, due to its mining characteristics and production cycles, are expected to further support price increases [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Silver prices are more volatile than gold due to its industrial and financial attributes, lower market scale, and high leverage in futures trading, which can amplify price movements [8][9]. - The current market is characterized by short-term fluctuations, with silver likely to experience continued volatility due to speculative trading and high leverage [10]. Group 5: Risks and Sensitivities - The gold and silver markets are currently sensitive to various risks, including changes in U.S. trade policies, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, geopolitical events, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [12].

周一(2月9日)，主要受美元大跌推动，现货黄金价格暴涨近2%，回到5000美元/盎司大关上方。投资者正准备迎接本周一系列经济数据，以研判美 联储政策前景。 现货黄金周一收盘暴涨91.82美元，涨幅1.85%，报5057.89美元/盎司。 美元大跌 美元指数周一触及逾一周低点，这令以美元计价的黄金对海外买家而言更具吸引力。 追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周一大跌0.84%，报96.86。 值得注意的是，主要因凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，美元指数上周飙升近1%。 随着交易员等待美国多项关键数据公布，包括零售销售、通胀数据，以及备受关注的非农就业报告，美元在新的一周开局表现疲弱。 彭博社报道称，中国监管机构已建议金融机构降低美国国债。该消息对周一美元走势构成下行压力。 道明证券全球大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek表示，周一金价主要驱动因素是美元走势。市场对美国经济数据、尤其是就业数据疲软的预期愈发加 深。 Valencia表示，实物黄金购买是推动金价上涨的另一个因素，因为中国人民银行在1月份连续第15个月增持黄金储备。随着越来越多的央行将美元储 备多元化配置到其他资产，贬值交易仍在继续。 V ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum: It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival. - Alumina: It shows a bottom - up rebound. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,540, up 225 from T - 1, 202 from T - 5, 975 from T - 22, and 2,375 from T - 66. The night - session closing price was 23,625. - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 3,130, up 20 from T - 1, 74 from T - 5, 144 from T - 22, and 265 from T - 66. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts showed different degrees of change compared with previous periods [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,868, up 44 from T - 1, 96 from T - 5, 117 from T - 22, and 30 from T - 66. The night - session closing price was 2,862. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,165, up 215 from T - 1 and 325 from T - 5. The night - session closing price was 22,225. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts changed compared with previous periods, and the spot premium and other indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 875,000 tons, up 22,000 tons from T - 1, 46,000 tons from T - 5, and 237,000 tons from T - 22. - The warehouse receipts of aluminum ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 164,500 tons, up 9,000 tons from T - 1, 14,100 tons from T - 5, and 86,000 tons from T - 22. - The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, import and export profit and loss of aluminum, and other indicators changed compared with previous periods [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 2646, with no change from T - 1. The CIF price at Lianyungang and other prices also had corresponding changes. - The profit and loss of alumina enterprises in Shanxi also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 591, up 272 from T - 1. The price difference between Baotai ADC12 - A00 and the total inventory of three places also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Other Raw Materials - The prices of imported bauxite from Indonesia, Australia, and Guinea, and the price of caustic soda in Shaanxi all had different degrees of change compared with previous periods [1]. 4. Comprehensive News and Trend Intensity - The Federal Reserve may reach an agreement with the US Treasury, which may affect the $30 - trillion Treasury market and cause concerns about the loss of central bank independence, rising inflation expectations, and a decline in the dollar's attractiveness. - Wall Street expects the US core CPI to rebound to about 0.3% in January, and inflation is expected to peak in spring and then gradually decline. - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals prices have declined further, but the Federal Reserve is expected to support prices through interest rate cuts within the year [1][3]. Precious Metals - Gold price is at $4948.00 per ounce, down $33.85 from January 30, a decrease of -0.68% [1]. - Silver price is at $74.94 per ounce, down $28.25 from January 30, a decrease of -27.38% [1]. - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed views on the need for multiple rate cuts this year, with potential inflation not being a concern [2]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper price on LME is $12,900 per ton, down $540 from January 30, a decrease of -4.02% [4]. - SHFE copper price is ¥99,810 per ton, down ¥3,360 from January 30, a decrease of -3.26% [4]. - Domestic copper inventory is increasing, with SHFE inventory at 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons from January 30 [4]. - Aluminum price is at ¥23,110 per ton, down ¥1,530 from January 30 [5]. - LME aluminum inventory is 490,975 tons, down 4,750 tons from January 30 [5]. Tin - Domestic refined tin price is ¥356,660 per ton, down ¥66,970 from January 30, a decrease of -15.81% [7]. - Domestic inventory is at 8,750 tons, down 1,718 tons from January 30 [7]. - Downstream purchasing willingness has increased despite price declines, indicating a potential for recovery in demand [7]. Antimony - Domestic antimony ingot price is ¥160,000 per ton, unchanged from January 30 [8]. - Demand feedback is average, with prices expected to remain stable [8]. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategy - Gold industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to the Fed's rate cut cycle [9]. - Copper industry also maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to tight copper supply [10]. - Aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating with rigid supply [11]. - Tin industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to tight supply conditions [11]. - Antimony industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating following a price rebound after a decline [11]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold International [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Cangge Mining, and Minmetals Resources [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Group 1 - Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh aims for an ambitious economic growth target of 15%, highlighting the challenges Walsh would face if appointed [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.4% this year, with a historical average growth rate of approximately 2.8% over the past 50 years [1] - Historically, the U.S. GDP has only achieved over 15% growth in a few quarters, with a notable instance in Q3 2020 due to a rebound from pandemic-related shutdowns [1] Group 2 - Trump's comments indicate an unusual calmness regarding inflation, despite the typical correlation between high growth rates and rising inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecast suggests only one rate cut by 2026, while market investors anticipate two rate cuts within the current year [2] Group 3 - Trump previously considered Walsh as his "second choice" for the Federal Reserve chair, criticizing his prior selection of Jerome Powell as a significant strategic error [4] - Trump's remarks suggest that his former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin heavily influenced Powell's nomination, which Trump later regretted [5] - Ongoing political attacks on Powell may delay Walsh's confirmation process, as Republican Senator Thom Tillis has indicated he will obstruct any Fed appointments while investigations into Powell continue [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair by Trump has led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, dragging down platinum and palladium prices. However, the long - term bullish logic is not affected by short - term disturbances [4]. - Macroscopically, the judicial investigation of Powell shakes the US dollar's credit, the global central bank gold - buying spree continues, and the reserve value of platinum and palladium is prominent under de - dollarization. The geopolitical risks in Greenland provide a phased bottom for prices, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged, providing long - term support [4]. - At the industrial level, there is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, with surging hydrogen energy demand and South African production capacity constraints providing strong support. Palladium has a rigid supply, and hybrid demand and strict emission policies support demand, resulting in a tight balance in the spot market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Futures Market of Platinum and Palladium - **Prices and Changes**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 545.05, 539.90, and 535.15 respectively, with price increases of 52.15, 56.85, and 57.45 and increases of 10.58%, 11.77%, and 12.03% respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 438.15, 433.00, and 436.10 respectively, with price increases of 30.90, 28.75, and 38.35 and increases of 7.59%, 7.11%, and 9.64% respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest for platinum and palladium futures is 12078 and 4142 respectively. The trading volumes of pt2606, pt2608, pt2610 are 13074, 229, 143 respectively, and the trading volumes of pd2606, pd2608, pd2610 are 6013, 59, 49 respectively [1]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts for platinum futures are - 1.06, 4.09, 8.84 respectively, and for palladium futures are - 18.15, - 13, - 16.1 respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 543.99 yuan/gram, 2054.00 US dollars/ounce, 836.00 yuan/gram, and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively. The price changes are - 2.48, 30.00, - 58.00, 0.00 respectively, and the price change rates are - 0.005%, 0.015%, - 0.072%, 0.000% respectively [1]. - **Palladium Spot**: The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 420.00 yuan/gram and 4226.59 rubles/gram respectively. The price changes are 2.00 and 64.66 respectively, and the price change rates are 0.005% and 0.016% respectively [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.30, 1.14, - 5.15, - 9.90, 1.08, - 5.15 respectively, and the previous values are - 1.24, - 0.36, - 7.45, - 14.40, 0.34, - 2.05 respectively [1]. Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 646,440.78 ounces, a decrease of 16178.0 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered platinum warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 326,637.95 ounces. The turnover of platinum on the gold exchange is 5,189.29 million yuan, a decrease of 446.1 million yuan compared to the previous value, and the trading volume is 96.00 kilograms, a decrease of 12.0 kilograms compared to the previous value [1]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 190,873.50 ounces and 148,317.64 ounces respectively [1]. Related Derivatives and Market Indicators - **Market Indicators**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate are 96.85, 6,964.82, 4.22, 23,238.67, 50,135.87, 6.95 respectively. The previous values are 97.61, 6,932.30, 4.22, 23,031.21, 50,115.67, 6.96 respectively. The changes are - 0.76, 32.52, 0.00, 207.46, 20.20, - 0.01 respectively [1]. - **Related Derivatives**: The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1125.94, 1128.78, 1131.24 respectively, with increases of 35.82, 36.06, 35.42 respectively. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 20873.00, 20175.00, 19846.00 respectively, with increases of 2074, 2231, 2236 respectively [1]. Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's "designated" director Milan [2]. - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominates former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - **China's Economic Data**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production expanded, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2]. - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China requires promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving payment services [3].