Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is entering a "super cycle" with significant price increases in gold and oil driven by inflation and geopolitical risks [1][8]. Group 1: Gold and Oil Price Dynamics - Gold is seen as both a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge, with prices surpassing $2400 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [4][6]. - Oil prices have risen due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical risks, with Brent crude oil prices returning above $85 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ production cuts and increased demand from China and the U.S. [4][7]. Group 2: TradeMax Platform Features - TradeMax offers a comprehensive trading platform for commodities, allowing users to trade gold and oil with features like low spreads and no expiration dates for contracts [4][5]. - The platform provides intelligent tools for decision-making, including real-time market analysis and alerts for significant economic events, enhancing trading strategies [4][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for gold and oil remains strong, with ongoing support from central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, although potential corrections may occur following Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][8]. - Technical analysis suggests gold could target $2500 per ounce, while Brent crude oil may challenge the $90 per barrel mark, indicating potential trading opportunities [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester weekly report from Zhengxin Futures, dated May 12, 2025, focusing on the PTA and MEG markets [2] - It analyzes the cost, supply, demand, and inventory aspects of the polyester industry chain and provides investment strategies and key points to watch [6] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - PTA is expected to have a warm and oscillating trend in the short - term due to strong raw material PX performance and continuous de - stocking, despite some relief in the tight supply - demand pattern [6] - MEG is likely to continue its rebound in the short - term as the supply - demand pattern is favorable with expected declines in both domestic production and imports and high polyester开工率 [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Upstream Industry Analysis - **Market Review**: International oil prices fell due to OPEC+ increasing production and positive signals from US - Iran negotiations. PX had a narrow - range repair due to poor cost support, continuous de - stocking of downstream PTA, low processing fees, and declining capacity utilization. As of May 9, Asian PX closed at $786/ton CFR China, up $40/ton from April 30 [18] - **PX开工率**: The weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 81.94%, a 4.5% increase from last week. Some devices had restarts, but there were also load - reducing situations such as catalyst replacement and planned maintenance [21] - **PX Processing Fees**: As of May 9, the PX - naphtha price difference was $216.7/ton, up $34.42/ton from April 30. Low previous processing fees and non - planned load reduction promoted the repair of processing fees [23] 4.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: After the holiday, PTA opened slightly lower, then the international oil price rebounded, and with supply reduction from device maintenance and a warming commodity sentiment, the PTA price center strengthened. As of May 9, the PTA spot price was 4,720 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 155 [26] - **PTA Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 74.48%, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week. In May, there are more planned device maintenance and some planned restarts, with an expected decline in capacity utilization [30] - **Supply - Demand Balance and Processing Fees**: Multiple device maintenance led to supply reduction and continuous de - stocking of the balance sheet, causing a significant increase in PTA processing fees. Next week, with device restarts, processing fees are expected to decline slightly [33] - **Inventory Expectation**: In May, with many PTA device maintenance plans and a co - existence of maintenance and restart in the polyester end, the supply - demand will continue the de - stocking pattern [34][36] 4.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil during the holiday, MEG opened lower after the holiday. With the improvement of the macro - situation, the market rebounded from the low level and fluctuated around 4,300 yuan/ton. As of May 9, the closing price in Zhangjiagang was 4,300 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,390 yuan/ton [39] - **MEG Capacity Utilization**: The total domestic MEG capacity utilization rate this week was 63.46%, a 0.47% increase from the previous week. There are multiple device maintenance and new device start - up plans in May, with most restarts concentrated around the end of the month [42] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, the total MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was 69.2 tons, an increase of 1.6 tons from May 6. The arrival was okay, but the shipment was dull, leading to a slight increase in inventory [47] - **Production Profits**: Due to the slight increase in the MEG price and different declines in raw material prices, the sample profits of all MEG production processes increased. As of May 9, the profit of naphtha - based MEG was - $105.8/ton, up $19.55/ton from last week; the coal - based profit was - 203.58 yuan/ton, up 43.32 yuan/ton from last week [50] 4.4 Downstream Demand Analysis - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization rate was 91.49%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week. Although some devices increased their loads, the overall production and capacity utilization declined slightly due to previous maintenance [53] - **Polyester Production**: In May, with a co - existence of maintenance and restart and a higher restart capacity than the maintenance capacity, the monthly polyester production is expected to increase slightly [56] - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 92%, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week; that of polyester staple fiber was 86.94%, a 0.26% increase; that of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.75%, a 2.99% decrease [59] - **Polyester Product Inventory**: After the holiday, the market trading was average, and the finished - product inventory of polyester filament factories gradually accumulated [60] - **Polyester Cash Flow**: With the expected increase in the cost side, the polyester cash flow may be further compressed, with local cash flow repair for some products and compression for DTY [63] - **Weaving Industry**: As of May 8, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.82%, a 5.73% increase from the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 10.17 days, an increase of 0.48 days from last week. However, foreign trade orders were sporadic, and there is a risk of a decline in the starting rate in the future [67] 4.5 Polyester Industry Chain Fundamental Summary - **Cost Side**: International oil prices fell, and PX had a narrow - range repair due to factors such as downstream de - stocking and low processing fees [69] - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased, and the MEG capacity utilization rate increased slightly [69] - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the weaving starting rate increased, but the order situation was not optimistic [69] - **Inventory**: PTA maintained a tight supply - demand balance, and MEG port inventory increased slightly [69]

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/9 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/桶 | 59.91 | 58.07 | 3.17% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/桶 | 62.84 | 61.12 | 2.81% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/吨 | 554.50 | 562.00 | -1.33% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/5/7 | 美元/吨 | 657.50 | 640.50 | 2.65% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/吨 | 778.00 | 767.67 | 1.35% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/8 | 元/吨 | 4546.00 | ...

今日燃油系期货上涨与SC下跌趋势形成背离,且LU表现继续强于FU。OPEO+6月超预期增产对高硫燃料油利空,5 月下半月装船的380cst高统燃料油现货较新加坡报价转为贴水表明高硫燃料油供需转弱,FU裂解虽处高位但更 多是因为油价承压而被动走强;近期低硫燃料油市场边际好转,现货贴水、裂解价差均有走强,但5月地中海 ECA标准执行对低硫燃料油需求存在利空,中期来看低硫裂解强势持续性有待观察。 橘夜国际油价回落,亚盘时段小幅反弹,S006含约日内跌1.09%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降203.2万桶, 美国室布与也门胡赛武装停火,特朗普亦表示愿与伊朗达成协议,中东地缘风险有所降温。我们自4月15日明确 提出原油偏空策略，前期油价跌至4月上旬低点已对OPEC+产量策略的改变和贸易战对需求的负面影响有较充分 定价,短期油价进一步下行空间有限,短期或以震荡走势为主。 【燃炭葱蛋低硫燃料】】 【沥青】 今日沥青跟随原油下跌,跌幅稍小于原油,裂解价差继续走强。4月下旬以来市场备货需求明显增加,周皮沥青 出货量环比、同比均增加。需求向好叠加供应受限背景下BU相较原油抗跌，BU裂解价差继续走强刷新年高点。 【LPG】 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: May 6 - 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: Recently, the marginal improvement of macro - economic data has weakened the safe - haven demand, short - term easing of trade frictions, and technical adjustments have led to a high - level decline in gold prices. However, the long - term support logic remains unchanged, with the US fiscal deficit and global central bank gold purchases providing fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the May non - farm payroll data and the change in the Fed's balance - sheet reduction rhythm. If geopolitical risks resurface or inflation rebounds, precious metals may regain upward momentum [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This Week's Strategy: Gold still has short - term callback pressure. Wait for the right time to configure and buy call options. The lower support for the main gold contract 2506 is 758 - 765, and the upper pressure is 829 - 836 [11]. 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways consolidation, and it may be near the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Silver has "dual attributes". When macro - uncertainty increases, although its safe - haven attribute can bring certain positive factors, its industrial attribute makes it also dragged down by the weakening economic growth expectations. Currently, the slowdown of global manufacturing growth and the weakening demand expectations in industries such as electronics and photovoltaics further suppress the fundamentals of silver. In the long - term, the continuous global silver supply - demand gap, China's stimulus plan and the growth of industrial demand, and the enhanced safe - haven attribute of silver due to geopolitical risks support the silver price under the resonance of multiple factors [32]. - Mid - term Strategy: Shanghai Silver will continue to consolidate sideways. The expected operating range of the main Shanghai Silver contract 2506 is 6900 - 8800, and it is recommended to adopt a grid trading strategy [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see. It was expected that the main silver contract 2506 would fluctuate in a large range, and a grid trading strategy was recommended within the range of 6900 - 8800 [35]. - This Week's Strategy: Not clearly stated in the provided content other than the last - week's related information 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][46][48]

【导读】国际金价再度飙升，突破3300美元/盎司关口 中国基金报记者 忆山 在经历短暂回调后，国际金价再次大涨！ 5月5日，黄金期货和现货价格均再次突破3300美元/盎司关口。截至发稿，COMEX黄金报3302.3美元/盎司，上涨1.82%；伦敦金现 报3301.054美元/盎司，上涨1.87%。 | | 864 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15:27 | 3302.1 | 2 | | | 43 | 3302.2 | | | Manager of the Research of the | 15:21 | 3302.6 | 25 | 此前，国际金价曾连续下跌，4月30日至5月2日期间，COMEX黄金、伦敦金现跌幅分别为3%、2.29%。受此影响，"五一"期间国内 首饰金价也普遍跌破1000元/克关口，部分品牌报价甚至重回"8字头"。 当前，特朗普关税政策、美联储降息预期、地缘风险等因素的变化，仍然是影响金价的主要原因。 福能期货分析，由于全球市场经济数据显示欧元区通胀超预期，美国降息预期有所回落，节假日期间外盘贵金属价格出现回落。 不过，5月5日，美国总统特朗普最新 ...

·混沌天成期货：贵金属长期仍旧强势但需要警惕情绪的波动影响 ·五矿期货：金银价格应当维持中期的多头思路 ·国信期货：地缘风险消退可能引发贵金属高位回撤 五矿期货表示，隔夜公布的美国经济数据进一步弱化，联储宽松货币政策预期存在进一步体现的驱动。 关键的美国3月JOLTS职位空缺人数为719.2万人，大幅低于预期和修正后前值的748万人。美国4月谘商 会消费者信心指数为86，低于预期的87.5和前值的93.9，达到2020年5月份以来的最低水平。在美国财政 赤字扩张、美联储货币政策边际宽松预期以及海外经济风险持续的背景下，对于金银价格应当维持中期 的多头思路。黄金前期在出现大幅上涨后价格出现阶段性的显著回落，当前价格走势总体偏弱，需关注 主力合约下方747元／克一线的支撑，沪金主力合约参考运行区间747-808元／克。 国信期货表示，黄金回调主因美元指数反弹及地缘风险溢价短期兑现。展望后市，贵金属市场或呈现区 间震荡特征，COMEX黄金或关注3200美元／盎司附近的支撑位承接力度，对应沪金或关注780元／克 左右的支撑位，可逢低布局黄金；白银聚焦工业需求改善与金银比修复，关注结构性补涨。地缘风险消 退可能引发贵金 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell, closing down 0.69% at 98.93, while US Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield at 4.211%, a three-week low [1] - Spot gold reversed its earlier decline, rising 0.75% to close at $3344.08 per ounce, supported by buying interest after a drop of 1.8% [1] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases, expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - WTI crude oil futures fell 2.03% to $61.89 per barrel, marking a near two-week low, amid uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production plans and concerns over the organization's unity [3] - Oil prices are expected to remain in a narrow trading range due to the lack of significant positive or negative news, with support confirmed around the $55 level and resistance near $65 [5] - The market sentiment indicates a preference for a cautious approach in trading, focusing on trend analysis and strategic entry points rather than emotional trading [5]

Market Volatility - The gold market experienced significant fluctuations, with prices reaching a historical high of $3,500 before dropping sharply to $3,260, resulting in a weekly close at $3,316.26 [3] - Market sentiment is divided, with 54% of Wall Street institutions turning bearish and only 46% remaining bullish, while retail investors show 48% bullish and 29% bearish sentiment [3] Key Variables Influencing Market - Upcoming non-farm payroll data is critical; a cooling labor market could strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, benefiting gold [4] - Progress in trade negotiations may lead to risk assets being buoyed, potentially putting short-term pressure on gold [4] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks and U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, continue to provide potential support for gold prices [4] Institutional Divergence - Bearish analysts warn that a drop below $3,300 could trigger a waterfall decline towards below $3,000, indicating a historical standoff between bulls and bears [6] - Bullish perspectives suggest that geopolitical risks could drive gold prices back to $3,500, with some analysts emphasizing the long-term upward trend of gold despite potential short-term corrections [6] Importance of Trading Platforms - The efficiency and risk management capabilities of trading platforms are crucial in volatile market conditions; Jinrong China has been recognized as "Best Asian Trading Platform" and "Best Trading Execution Broker" for its rapid order execution and intelligent risk control systems [7] - Such platforms can help investors respond quickly to extreme market movements, minimizing potential losses during sharp price fluctuations [7] Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to oscillate between $3,260 and $3,370, with non-farm data and trade agreements being pivotal for market direction [9] - Long-term support for gold remains strong due to central bank purchases, a weakening dollar credit system, and the normalization of geopolitical risks; investors are advised to diversify through low-premium gold bars and gold ETFs [9]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - The ongoing airstrikes by the US military against Houthi forces are escalating the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with significant implications for global asset pricing [1] - The Houthis, supported by Iran, are disrupting maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which is in direct conflict with the US's efforts to maintain "freedom of navigation" [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Impact - The Red Sea crisis is leading to a restructuring of global shipping routes, with 75% of Eurasian container ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a 40% increase in costs for the China-Europe route [3] - The daily oil transport volume through the Suez Canal, which is 1.2 million barrels, faces interruption risks, contributing to an 8% weekly increase in international oil prices [3] - The blockade of the Ras Isa port by Houthi forces has caused a 90% disruption in Yemen's fuel imports, creating a local supply crisis that contrasts with global oil surplus expectations [3] Group 3: Safe-Haven Assets - The gold market is exhibiting typical risk-hedging characteristics, maintaining high volatility after surpassing $3,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - The US dollar index rebounded strongly after signals from the Federal Reserve regarding prolonged high interest rates, casting a shadow over gold's upward momentum [4] - The scale of US national debt, at $36.6 trillion, and the ongoing unconventional monetary policy are undermining the credibility of the dollar [4] Group 4: Systemic Risks - Three systemic risks threaten market stability: prolonged Red Sea conflict leading to rising oil transport costs, potential liquidity crisis in the US Treasury market prompting policy shifts, and the risk of direct conflict between Saudi forces and Houthis affecting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz [5] Group 5: Strategic Insights for Investors - The military actions by the US Navy, while appearing assertive, reveal deeper strategic dilemmas in the Middle East [6] - Investors may need to adjust to a new normal where "geopolitical premiums" on gold and oil become standard, while the dollar's safe-haven status is challenged by policy inconsistencies and debt issues [6] - Future market directions will depend on the recovery of Red Sea shipping routes, signals from the Federal Reserve's May meeting, and Iran's support for Houthi forces [6]