投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-5-29 美联储态度审慎，⾦价承压 价格逻辑： 黄金价格周三北美时段延续跌势，跌破3,300美元关键心理位，主因 美联储会议纪要释放滞胀风险信号，推动美债收益率反弹并提振美 元。尽管美联储维持利率不变，但政策制定者对关税推升通胀及就业 增长放缓的担忧加剧，暗示货币政策将保持谨慎。同时，地缘政治冲 突（俄乌、中东局势）虽支撑避险需求，但美国消费者信心数据超预 期改善，叠加美债收益率回升至4.493%，削弱了黄金吸引力。 美联储5月会议纪要显示，官员因关税对经济的不确定性及潜在" 滞胀"压力（高通胀与弱增长并存）而选择观望，强调需等待政府政 策调整效果明朗。值得注意的是，此次会议早于特朗普政府将对华关 税从145%降至30%的决定。经济数据方面，美国10年期实际收益率升 至2.171%，美元指数上涨0.33%至99.89，进一步施压金价。此外， 瑞士4月自美黄金进口创2012年以来新高，中国香港4月黄金净进口同 比翻倍。市场预计美联储年内或降息45个基点，但当前强劲数据与政 策谨慎基调令短期金价承压。 展望：周度COMEX黄金 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index reached a three-month high, limiting interest in safe-haven metals, with gold prices fluctuating and ultimately rising above $3,300 per ounce [1] - The latest spot gold price is reported at $3,312.69 per ounce, reflecting a 0.79% increase, while COMEX gold futures for August are at $3,325.90, up by $3.50 [1] - COMEX silver futures for July are priced at $33.475, showing an increase of $0.315, indicating a positive risk appetite among traders and investors [1] Group 2 - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled against Trump's tariffs, which could disrupt his trade agenda and affect negotiations with other countries [2] - The Trump administration has filed an appeal, and the outcome could lead to significant market volatility [2] - The White House National Economic Council Director expressed confidence that the tariff ruling will be overturned, suggesting multiple options for the Trump administration regarding tariffs [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate that a rate cut is unlikely in the near term, with concerns about stagflation rising due to slowing economic growth and rising inflation [3] - The U.S. dollar index has slightly increased, and WTI crude oil prices are around $62.00 per barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.55% [3] - Economic data shows a contraction in GDP by 0.2% in Q1, with consumer spending growth at only 1.2%, below initial estimates [3] Group 4 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 240,000, exceeding expectations, suggesting a potential increase in the unemployment rate [4] - The Federal Reserve's minutes indicate a balanced labor market but highlight risks of weakening in the coming months, largely dependent on trade policies [4] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures for August maintain a short-term technical advantage for bulls, with the next target above the strong resistance level of $3,400 [5] - The first resistance level is at $3,352, followed by $3,375, while the first support level is at $3,300 [5] Group 6 - COMEX silver futures for July show a slight technical advantage for bulls, with the next target above the strong resistance level of $34.015 [6] - The first resistance level is at $33.75, followed by $34.015, while the next support level is at $33.00 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed meeting minutes indicate that the Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined. The domestic market is in a short - term policy vacuum period, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no significant changes are expected. Attention should be paid to whether there will be an opportunity for the market to increase with increased trading volume after the festival. Recently, the market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen. Technically, there is still a distance to fill the gap around 3316, and short - term funds are more likely to choose to fill the gap and buy at the bottom. Additionally, attention should be paid to the liquidity of small - cap stocks to prevent extreme market conditions [2][12] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market View 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The Fed released FOMC meeting minutes, stating that due to rising risks in inflation and employment, and the uncertainty of the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the US economy, the Fed strongly implied that it would not cut interest rates soon and clearly predicted stagflation. Some officials also hinted at the financial risk of rising long - term US bond yields. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields for 2 - year and 10 - year terms increased, gold prices fell, the three major US stock indexes declined, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market fell 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.31%. The market showed a volatile downward trend, similar to Tuesday, with limited index movements, accelerated sector rotation, and many stocks experiencing a shrinking - volume decline. Some popular stocks appeared on the decline list. In terms of sectors, textile and apparel, environmental protection, coal, transportation, and communication led the gains, while chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, military industry, and automobiles led the losses. There were 1750 rising stocks and 3477 falling stocks in the whole market. China announced visa - free policies for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The EU trade chief will talk with the US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative on Thursday, with topics including tariff policies and cooperation in aviation, semiconductors, and steel. Three major German car companies are in consultations with the US Department of Commerce on tariff issues, aiming for an agreement in early July. Trump responded angrily to the "TACO" deal. The Fed meeting minutes showed rising risks of unemployment and inflation, and the "Fed whisperer" said that the stagflation prediction might be the keynote of the Fed's June economic forecast. Chinese officials emphasized China's commitment to high - level opening - up and welcomed US financial institutions to participate in the Chinese capital market. The Chinese government also focused on building a good platform economy ecosystem and strengthening the publicity of rare - earth export control policies. DeepSeek open - sourced a new version, and China implemented visa - free policies for four Middle - Eastern countries [6][7][11] 1.4 Today's Strategy - The Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy with reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. The domestic market is in a policy vacuum, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no major changes are expected. After the festival, attention should be paid to potential market increases. The market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen, and there is a chance for short - term funds to fill the gap around 3316. Attention should also be paid to small - cap liquidity [12] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including details like closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and changes in trading volume and open interest [14][15] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of various stock indexes and sectors in the spot market, including current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation levels. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes [33][34][35] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rates, which are related to market liquidity [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in positions, a spot premium, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals suggest that the supply of Shanghai copper may increase slightly while the demand remains relatively stable. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,130 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,628 dollars/ton, up 63 dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai copper is 174,757 lots, up 5,295 lots. The LME copper inventory is 154,300 tons, down 7,850 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 98,671 tons, down 9,471 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,485 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,525 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 44.97 dollars/ton, up 4.89 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper concentrate TC index is - 44.28 dollars/kiloton, down 1.23 dollars. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.47%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.49%, down 0.20%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.03%, down 0.0002; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 0.82, down 0.0064 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed meeting minutes show that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. The Politburo member and Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasizes building a good platform economy ecosystem. From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises is 26.2755 trillion yuan, and the total profit is 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material supply for domestic smelters will remain stable in the short term. The overall supply of copper may increase steadily, while the demand from some downstream copper product processing enterprises is weakening, leading to a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The recent convergence of the spot premium and downstream operations such as low - price replenishment and pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking support the copper price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined for three consecutive days, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts, with prices reaching a low of $3,273 before a slight recovery to close at $3,284.40 per ounce [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate increased uncertainty in the current economic environment, leading to a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, with a preference to wait for clarity on tariff policies before making decisions [1][2] - Almost all committee members expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to a long-term increase in inflation levels, highlighting the challenging balance between curbing inflation and maintaining employment [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the Fed maintaining interest rates, concerns over tariffs pushing inflation and slowing job growth have intensified, suggesting a cautious monetary policy outlook [2] - Geopolitical conflicts have supported safe-haven demand, but improved U.S. consumer confidence data and rising U.S. Treasury yields have diminished gold's appeal [2] - The U.S. 10-year real yield has increased, and the dollar index rose by 0.28% to 99.89, further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 3: Import and Market Expectations - Notably, Switzerland's gold imports from the U.S. reached a new high since 2012 in April, while Hong Kong's net gold imports doubled year-on-year in April [2] - The market anticipates a potential 45 basis points rate cut from the Fed within the year, but strong economic data and a cautious policy stance are currently putting pressure on gold prices [2]

——从关税冲击到降息迷途，全球市场屏息以待 一份凌晨发布的会议纪要，撕开了美联储面对的两难困局：一面是关税助推的通胀火焰，一面是就业市 场的降温预警，而夹在中间的，是全球资本市场的剧烈波动。 北京时间5月29日凌晨2点，美联储公布了5月货币政策会议纪要，首次将"关税冲击"纳入核心议题，并 罕见警告未来可能面临通胀与失业"双升"的艰难权衡。这份被市场称为"风暴预警"的文件，不仅揭示了 美国经济政策的内部分歧，更暴露了全球金融体系在政治不确定性下的脆弱性。 一、会议纪要核心信号：三重压力下的"政策悬崖" 1. 通胀顽固性远超预期 长期通胀预期脱锚风险：核心PCE通胀率仍达2.6%，美联储预计2027年前难回2%目标，滞胀阴影笼 罩。 关税成为新推手：几乎所有与会官员指出，特朗普政府加征的关税正被企业转嫁给消费者，甚至非关税 影响企业也借机提价，导致通胀"向上漂移风险加剧"。 2. 就业市场韧性面临考验 尽管当前失业率稳定在4.2%，但企业因贸易不确定性已开始冻结招聘，制造业、农业等关税敏感行业 首当其冲。纪要直言"劳动力市场疲软风险正在累积"。 3. 金融稳定警报拉响 美元避险地位动摇：长期美债收益率上升与美元贬 ...

张尧浠：美纪要拉响滞胀警告、金价等待再度回踩看涨支撑 上交易日周三(5月28日)：国际黄金继续受到回落趋势线压力，走低调整，短期来看，在突破趋势线压力之前，将仍偏向继续回踩上升趋势线支撑，并再 度看涨攀升。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3300.98美元/盎司，先行反弹后跌再回升，振幅频率25美金左右，并至欧盘时段录得日内高点3325.48美元，之后遇阻连续回 落走低，延续至美盘尾盘收盘时段，触及日内低点3276.92美元，最后有所触底回升，收于3288.46美元，日振幅48.56美元，收跌12.52美元，跌幅0.38%。 影响上，美元指数再度反弹收涨，对其金价产生压力，因市场对美国经济的悲观情绪有所下降，且日本40年期国债标售需求疲软，美元指数连续走强，打 压金价。另外，欧盟已同意每隔一天与美国商务部长及美国贸易代表通话，也减弱一定的关税避险担忧，限制了金价多头。 展望今日周四(5月29日)：国际黄金开盘窄幅波动运行，美元指数早盘继续走强，仍对金价产生压力，使其在支撑位置未能明显反弹，以及未能延续昨日 尾盘回升之力先行走强。本周重点关注能否收线至昨日低点下方，来跟进进一步回调，并等待回踩上升趋势线支撑后，再度 ...

Group 1 - The EU has agreed to hold daily calls with US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative to discuss tariff policies and cooperation in sectors like aviation, semiconductors, and steel [10] - Trump's media technology group saw a significant drop of nearly 7%, while GameStop fell by 10.8% [4] - Nvidia's Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $44.1 billion, with data center revenue growing by 73% to $39.1 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales [11] Group 2 - The OPEC+ meeting did not adjust oil production policies, planning to use 2025 production levels as a benchmark for 2027 [13] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.53%, with significant movements in tech stocks, including Alibaba Pictures rising by 11.54% and Kuaishou increasing by 5.95% [5] - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.02% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.26% [6]

Domestic News - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng welcomed U.S. financial institutions to actively participate in the development of China's capital markets [4] - The National Health Commission reported a slowdown in the upward trend of COVID-19 cases nationwide [4] - The Ministry of Education announced that the number of candidates for the national college entrance examination in 2025 is expected to reach 13.35 million [4] - The Ministry of Commerce is strengthening the promotion of rare earth export control policies, which may indicate a relaxation of export restrictions on European chip companies [4] International News - Nvidia's Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, although data center revenue was slightly below forecasts, leading to a 5% increase in stock price after hours [5] - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not make adjustments to oil production policies, planning to use 2025 production levels as a benchmark for 2027 [11] - German automakers are reportedly negotiating directly with the U.S. government for tariff exemptions in exchange for investments [12]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's wealthy clients are increasingly seeking to diversify their investment portfolios by significantly increasing allocations to alternative assets amid market volatility and global trade uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Alternative Assets Demand - UBS's Asia-Pacific President Iqbal Khan noted a strong and growing demand for alternative assets among clients, indicating a shift in investment strategies to mitigate risks [1] - Alternative assets, which include private equity, private credit, hedge funds, real estate, and collectibles, are characterized by lower liquidity and lower correlation with traditional assets, making them valuable during market turmoil [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook and Stagflation Risks - Khan anticipates a continued decline in benchmark interest rates and an increasing likelihood of a stagflation environment, particularly in the U.S. [2] - The recent geopolitical tensions and aggressive U.S. policies have raised concerns among investors about potential stagflation or deep recession risks, contributing to the weakening of dollar assets [2] Group 3: Leadership Changes and Integration Progress - As part of a leadership restructuring in 2024, Khan has been appointed to oversee UBS's Asia-Pacific operations, while Rob Karofsky will manage U.S. operations [3] - UBS has faced challenges following its acquisition of Credit Suisse, including significant layoffs and cost-cutting measures, with a goal of achieving $13 billion in synergies [3] Group 4: Regulatory Challenges - UBS executives express concerns that excessive regulation could undermine Switzerland's competitiveness in the global financial market, with potential implications for the bank's headquarters location [4]