智通财经APP获悉，英国4月通胀数据涨幅超预期，引发金融市场对英国央行货币政策的重新定价。最新数据显示，当月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比涨幅从 2.6%跃升至3.5%，超出英国央行预测的3.4%和经济学家预期的3.3%。核心服务通胀率更从4.7%蹿升至5.4%，凸显潜在价格压力持续升温。 这一数据公布后，市场立即作出剧烈反应。对货币政策高度敏感的两年期英国国债收益率应声上涨3个基点，触及4.08%的七周高位。英镑汇率同步走强， 英镑兑美元汇率一度攀升0.6%至1.3469，创下2022年2月以来最高水平。值得关注的是，期权交易员自全球金融危机以来首次转变长期看跌英镑的立场，折 射出市场情绪的根本性转变。 利率预期出现显著调整。货币市场交易员目前认为，英国央行基准利率将维持在4%的最终水平，这意味着今年可能仅再降息一次，而非此前预期的两次。 掉期市场显示，8月降息概率已从数据发布前的60%大幅回落至50%。 通胀数据结构揭示更深层次压力。能源、水费等受监管商品价格成为主要推手，而服务通胀率突破5%大关更引发决策层警觉。英国央行密切关注服务价格 走势，因其能更准确反映国内需求驱动的价格压力。此轮通胀反弹恰逢经济通 ...

经济观察网讯5月21日，据报道称，美联储贝丝.哈玛克(Beth Hammack)表示，美联储已做好保持耐心的 准备；通胀预期一直保持在相当稳定的水平，如果这种情况发生变化，这可能是美联储需要采取行动的 一个信号。 贝丝.哈玛克表示，将需要更多时间了解贸易政策对企业决策的影响程度，目前美联储最好是按兵不 动。 贝丝.哈玛克是克利夫兰联储主席，克利夫兰联储(Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)是美国联邦储备系 统(美联储)的12家地区性储备银行之一，隶属于第四联邦储备区，覆盖俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州西部、 西弗吉尼亚州北部及肯塔基州东部。 在今年4月25日召开的议息会议上，包括贝丝.哈玛克在内的美联储官员就表示，他们打算保持利率稳 定，直到他们对特朗普总统的移民、贸易和监管政策有更多了解。多位政策制定者指出，这些政策将如 何实施，以及其他国家和企业将如何应对，存在很大的不确定性。 5月8日召开的议息会议，宣布维持基准利率不变。这是美联储连续第三次维持利率不变，利率决议声明 较3月出现了调整，重点提及经济前景不确定上升——双重使命就业和通胀同时面临潜在威胁。美联储 主席鲍威尔认为当前美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that rising geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Israel's potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, resulting in a significant rise in gold prices [1][3]. - On May 20, gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching $3,300, marking the first time since May 9 that it hit this level, driven by heightened market volatility and investor concerns [1][3]. - The gold ETF (518800) saw a substantial increase of over 2.5%, indicating strong trading activity amid the geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2 - The current market sentiment is influenced by trade negotiations and geopolitical situations, leading to increased volatility in gold prices, but long-term factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising global uncertainties are expected to support gold prices [4]. - The aggressive tariff policies in the U.S. have heightened the risk of "stagflation," which, along with the uncertainty in policies, provides additional support for gold prices [4]. - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, continue to increase their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 73.77 million ounces as of the end of April, marking a continuous increase for six months [4].

Group 1 - Gold prices surged again, breaking the $3,300 per ounce mark for the first time since May 9, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and a negative GDP growth in the US, which increased safe-haven demand [1] - Since May 19, spot gold has been on the rise, following a significant correction after reaching a historical high before the May Day holiday, with a notable drop of 2.23% on May 14 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a strong performance in gold and jewelry consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3% in April for gold and jewelry, and a 38.6% increase in the average closing price of AU9999 gold [1] Group 2 - CITIC Futures believes that the current adjustment in gold prices is a short-term trend, with a long-term bullish outlook remaining intact, influenced by a combination of rising inflation and economic downturn in the US [2] - According to Founder Securities, while gold prices are currently high, the easing of trade tensions may lead to profit-taking by investors and a slowdown in central bank purchases, potentially causing a short-term price correction [2] - Citigroup has significantly lowered its three-month gold price target from $3,500 to $3,150, indicating a 10% decrease, and predicts that gold prices will oscillate between $3,000 and $3,300 in the near term [4]

Group 1 - The spot gold price has surged past the key level of $3,300 for the first time since May 9, driven by rising geopolitical risks, particularly concerns over potential Israeli actions against Iranian nuclear facilities, which have heightened market risk aversion and supported gold prices [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) opened higher with active trading, serving as an efficient tool for gold asset allocation without physical delivery, allowing T+0 flexible trading [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF has seen significant inflows, with shares increasing by 28.8 million, 4.5 million, and 131.4 million over the past three months, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The global gold market has experienced a dramatic increase in trading activity, with the World Gold Council reporting a 48% month-on-month rise in average daily trading volume to $441 billion in April [1] - The structural demand for gold remains stable, with central bank demand being a key factor supporting gold prices, as highlighted in the World Gold Council's Q1 2025 report [1] - According to a senior researcher at CITIC Futures, the short-term adjustments in gold prices are temporary, with a long-term bullish trend expected, influenced by the broader economic context of rising inflation and potential recession risks in the U.S. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The tax legislation proposed by the White House complicates the expectations set by the FOMC staff, potentially leading to stagflation in the U.S. if the tax bill, supported by President Trump, is enacted into law [1] Group 1 - Cleveland Fed President Hammack expresses concerns that the tax legislation will create complex expectations for the economy [1] - There is a caution against overreacting to trade issues amidst the evolving economic landscape [1] - The potential enactment of the tax bill could result in stagflation in the U.S. economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. banking industry is under significant stress due to high interest rates, with potential risks of a new banking crisis similar to the one experienced in March 2023, particularly if economic conditions worsen due to inflation and other factors [1][9][10]. Group 1: Current Banking Situation - As of the end of 2024, the total unrealized losses in U.S. bank securities investments reached $482.4 billion, an increase of $118 billion or 32.5% from the previous quarter [1]. - The peak of unrealized losses was $684 billion at the end of 2023, indicating a troubling trend for the banking sector [1]. - Experts warn that if interest rates remain high, the accumulated losses during the crisis will not dissipate, leading to further vulnerabilities in the banking system [10]. Group 2: Expert Opinions - Financial experts emphasize that unless assets are sold, unrealized losses do not appear on banks' profit and loss statements, but they pose a liquidity threat if depositor confidence wanes [2][6]. - The volatility of long-term interest rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, is closely linked to bank losses, with current rates hovering above 4.5% [5][6]. - The potential for a new banking crisis remains, as any negative news about a bank could trigger a repeat of the March 2023 crisis [2][8]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - The banking sector's exposure to long-term securities, which are classified as "held to maturity," means that their market value fluctuations do not directly impact financial statements unless sold [6][7]. - If banks are forced to sell investments, they must mark their entire portfolio to market value, which could lead to significant liquidity issues [6][10]. - Regional and super-regional banks, particularly those with asset sizes between $10 billion and $200 billion, are highlighted as particularly vulnerable due to their large uninsured deposits exceeding the FDIC insurance limit [10].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and major banks' deposit ratings indicates a rare blow to the U.S. financial system, potentially increasing borrowing costs [1][2]. Group 1: Moody's Downgrade Impact - Moody's downgraded the deposit ratings of major banks, including Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, from Aa1 to Aa2, citing weakened government support for these banks [2]. - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 was primarily due to rising fiscal deficits and interest costs, which could lead to higher interest rates for households and businesses [3][7]. - Following the downgrade, the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan reached 7.04%, the highest since April 11, indicating a direct impact on the housing market [8]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of high credit risks and the potential for a market downturn as companies reassess costs due to tariffs [4][5]. - Dimon expressed concerns that inflation and stagflation risks are underestimated, predicting a decline in earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies [6][7]. - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff policies could further complicate the economic landscape, with Dimon noting that even reduced tariffs remain relatively high [6][7]. Group 3: Housing Market Effects - The rise in mortgage rates has led to a decline in housing demand, with existing home sales down 3.2% year-over-year in April [8]. - Builders have reported a significant drop in demand, with the builder confidence index at its lowest since the end of 2023 [8].

每经记者｜蔡鼎 每经编辑｜高涵 ①【三大期指齐跌】截至发稿，道指期货跌0.16%、标普500指数期货跌0.33%、纳指期货跌0.39%。 ②【美国主权评级调整后，多家大行评级遭调降】当地时间5月19日，国际评级机构穆迪宣布下调多家 美国主要银行的部分信用评级。此次行动紧随其日前对美国主权信用评级的调整。根据穆迪公告，摩根 大通银行、美国银行和富国银行的长期存款评级均由Aa1下调至Aa2。 ③【文远知行盘前涨超2.4%，近期在阿布扎比开启纯无人Robotaxi试运营】截至发稿，文远知行盘前涨 超2.4%。消息面上，文远知行近期宣布，在阿布扎比开启纯无人驾驶Robotaxi试运营，打造中东地区第 一支纯无人Robotaxi车队。同时，文远知行Robotaxi在阿布扎比的服务范围进一步扩大，新增玛丽亚岛 和瑞姆岛等阿布扎比出行高需求区域。 ④【美国司法部据称对Coinbase网络攻击事件展开调查】据路透，美国司法部已对加密货币交易所 Coinbase日前公布的严重网络攻击事件展开调查。报道指出，调查人员正在深入调查该事件的相关情 况。Coinbase早前表示，此次黑客攻击涉及犯罪分子贿赂印度员工和承包商以获取客户资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major financial institutions and hedge fund CEOs are increasingly concerned about potential risks in the market, particularly following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, which has led to a rise in "sell America" trades and heightened scrutiny of U.S. fiscal health [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Moody's downgrade, the 30-year Treasury yield rose approximately 10 basis points, surpassing the psychological 5% mark, reaching its highest level since mid-2007 [1]. - The 10-year Treasury yield also increased to over 4.5%, indicating a shift in investor focus from trade issues to concerns about the long-term fiscal health of the U.S. [1]. - Despite initial market declines, major U.S. stock indices rebounded, reflecting a complex market response to the downgrade [1]. Group 2: CEO Insights - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that investors are overly complacent and may not fully recognize the risks posed by tariffs and the credit downgrade, suggesting that asset prices remain high and the credit market has not adequately priced in potential economic downturns [3][4]. - Dimon emphasized that the impact of tariffs on inflation and potential stagflation is underestimated, with the likelihood of stagflation possibly being twice what the market anticipates [4]. - Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser noted ongoing uncertainties and a shift towards a new phase of globalization defined more by strategic interests than cooperation, indicating deeper issues in financial markets [5]. Group 3: Debt and Inflation Concerns - Bridgewater CEO Ray Dalio expressed that the risks associated with U.S. debt are greater than what Moody's downgrade suggests, highlighting concerns about the potential for currency devaluation as a means of debt repayment [6][7]. - Dalio reiterated fears that current economic policies and trade tensions could lead to significant disruptions, potentially more severe than past economic crises [7].