Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side still has a boost, and attention should be paid to the implementation process of maintenance. The market sentiment has improved, driving the prices of PE and PP to continue to rebound, but the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals of both is limited. The short - term rebound sustainability of PP depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the rebound drive of PE may weaken after the sentiment fades [1][3][4] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 6,766 yuan/ton (+29), and that of the PP main contract was 6,545 yuan/ton (-15). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,670 yuan/ton (+90) and 6,750 yuan/ton (+100) respectively, while PP spot price in East China was 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -96 yuan/ton (+61), in East China was -16 yuan/ton (+71), and PP basis in East China was -295 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP operating rate was 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 104.8 yuan/ton (+17.2), PP oil - based production profit was -535.2 yuan/ton (+17.2), and PDH - based PP production profit was -722.0 yuan/ton (+53.5) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 160.2 yuan/ton (+58.7), PP import profit was -365.7 yuan/ton (-33.2), and PP export profit was -36.5 US dollars/ton (-1.1) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film operating rate was 49.0% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2] Market Analysis - **PE**: The bottom - rebound of oil prices has strengthened cost support. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, it is not a substantial reversal. The supply pressure remains due to the expected increase in low - cost imported goods and the return of some devices to produce standard products. The demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure exists under high supply [3] - **PP**: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and the supply - side reduction expectation and cost support have boosted prices. The supply pressure has been relieved in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the short - term rebound sustainability depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. Pay attention to the upstream maintenance dynamics [5] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Alumina: Bearish [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The aluminum market is expected to remain strong, while the alumina market will continue to decline. The cast aluminum alloy market is expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3. Market Data Summary 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,375 yuan, down 275 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 825,553 lots, and the open interest was 370,981 lots [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,780 yuan, down 86 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 964,869 lots, and the open interest was 553,364 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,165 yuan, down 175 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27,925 lots, and the open interest was 22,099 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 740,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 100,800 tons, up 3,300 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,688 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 334 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 was 23,500 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. 4. Other Information - The New York Fed President Williams warned against undermining the independence of the central bank and said that the current monetary policy stance is stable, with no need to adjust interest rates in the short term. He expects GDP growth of 2.5%-2.75% in 2026 and inflation to fall back to the 2% target in 2027 [2]. - The CME will change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts from a fixed amount to a certain percentage of the contract's nominal value. The margin ratio for some non-high-risk gold contracts will be adjusted to about 5% of the nominal value, and about 9% for silver [2]. - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 1, 0, and 1 respectively [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The absolute valuation of zinc is low, and long - term macro factors are still bullish. The report remains optimistic about consumption. Although consumption enters the traditional off - season, zinc consumption maintains relative strength, and the inventory accumulation rate is slow. The supply pressure is expected to decrease quarter - on - quarter, and zinc shows relative resistance to decline under capital disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Category Market Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is - $40.90 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,330 yuan per ton, up 190 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 70 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,290 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,260 yuan per ton, up 190 yuan, with a premium of 0 yuan per ton [1]. - **Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,215 yuan per ton, closed at 24,235 yuan per ton, up 205 yuan. The trading volume was 152,709 lots, and the open interest was 68,022 lots. The highest price was 24,735 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,035 yuan per ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of January 13, 2026, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 118,300 tons, down 200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,900 tons, up 100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for purchasing domestic ores has declined. The domestic ore TC remains stable, while the imported ore TC continues to decline. The Antamina's latest quotation is 0 - 10 dollars per ton. The raw material available days of smelters are not high, and the short - term TC is difficult to rise. The comprehensive smelting profit is difficult to repair, and the output in the first quarter may still be lower than expected, so the supply pressure is expected to continue to decrease quarter - on - quarter. Consumption enters the traditional off - season, but zinc consumption maintains relative strength, the inventory accumulation of social inventory is slow, and the spot premium remains [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [5] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report presents investment analyses and outlooks for various energy - chemical futures on January 14, 2026. It includes evaluations of price trends, supply - demand situations, and investment strategies for different commodities such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [1][2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost - supported, expected to be unilaterally strong. Suggest long PX short PTA, long SC short PX hedging. Although supply is loose and downstream PTA polyester may reduce production, the rising oil price supports the cost. [6][9] - **PTA**: Cost - supported, suggest long SC short PTA. High processing fees, pay attention to reducing the processing fee position. Supply growth is limited, and the impact of polyester production reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **MEG**: Expected to rebound strongly in the short - term, suggest closing short positions. Focus on the implementation of the spring inspection of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants. [10] Rubber - Expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and the base - difference and some price spreads changed. The demand of the semi - steel tire industry improved slightly. [11][12][13] Synthetic Rubber - Expected to fluctuate at a high level. The price of butadiene is in a neutral situation, and synthetic rubber mainly fluctuates with the cost. [15][16][17] LLDPE - The production of standard products remains low, and the spot price is rising. The base - difference turns positive. The raw - material price is stable, and the supply - demand pressure in the medium - term needs attention. [18][19] PP - The downstream rush for exports supports propylene, and the cost of PP is strongly supported. The end - of - year demand is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in PDH devices. [21][22] Caustic Soda - Expected to fluctuate weakly. High production and inventory, weak demand and large supply pressure, facing the impact of low - price warehouse receipts. [24][25][26] Pulp - Expected to fluctuate. The spot price of softwood pulp fluctuates with the market, and the hardwood pulp price is firm. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. [29][31][32] Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the trading atmosphere is average. [34][35] Methanol - Expected to have support during fluctuations. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply expectations, it is expected to be strong in the short - term. The upper and lower valuation levels are clear. [38][40][41] Urea - Expected to fluctuate. The inventory is basically stable. In the short - term, the price may correct, and in the medium - term, it is still strong. [42][44][45] Styrene - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. The medium - term driving force is weak. [47][48][49] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The demand support is weakening, and the overall supply - demand is not good. [51][53] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply is tight in the short - term, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. [56] - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. [57] PVC - Expected to fluctuate weakly. High production and inventory, weak demand, and the large - scale production - reduction expectation may be after the 03 contract. [65][66] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitics, there is still support at the bottom. [68] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Mainly follows the rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rebound. [68] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Expected to operate weakly. The "rush for exports" is temporarily false, and the price - reduction inflection point is clear. Different contracts have different investment strategies. [70][80][84] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly, suggest holding long TA short PF. [86] - **Bottle - Chip**: Expected to fluctuate strongly, suggest holding the positive spread of the monthly difference. [86] Offset - Printing Paper - Suggest short - selling at high prices. The market price is stable, and the downstream demand is limited. [89][90][92] Pure Benzene - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The port inventory has increased, and the spot price has risen slightly. [94][95][96]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose and then fell. London gold exceeded $4,600 per ounce, and London silver exceeded $89 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the US core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year. Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials. Domestic gold ETFs had a small outflow, while some inventories changed [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Gold prices are rising steadily, so it is recommended to go long. Silver has strong speculative sentiment and large fluctuations, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.81% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 24,375 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Although the terminal consumption of the electrolytic aluminum market is under pressure, the expectation of loose macro - policies and geopolitical risks provide strong support for aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 3.00% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2,780 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Alumina supply is gradually recovering, inventory is accumulating, and the price of bauxite is falling. The oversupply situation is difficult to change, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On January 13, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24,235 yuan per ton and 17,310 yuan per ton respectively [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The zinc market is driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamental support is insufficient. The lead market shows weak reality, with weak consumption, increasing inventory, and expanding spot discounts [2][3]. - **Trading Strategies**: For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see. For lead, it can be traded within a range or treated with a short - bias [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the main 05 contract closed at 8,635 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. Social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: The fundamental support is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton. It is advisable to go short lightly at high prices [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 166,980 yuan per ton, an increase of 7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased. Supply increased in December but is expected to decrease in January. Demand for some battery materials is expected to decline, and inventory is expected to accumulate in Q1 [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Due to inflation concerns on the supply side and battery export expectations on the demand side, prices are expected to be supported, and it is easy for prices to rise and difficult to fall [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 49,005 yuan per ton, a decrease of 990 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Market regulatory authorities interviewed photovoltaic associations and enterprises, causing market pessimism. Supply decreased slightly, and demand for some downstream products declined [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: There are still rumors of joint production cuts on the supply side, and demand may not be weak in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3,169 yuan per ton, a rise of 14 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar inventory decreased, and the supply - demand situation is weak with significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures are at a large discount, and steel mills are in a state of continuous loss [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,140 - 3,190 yuan per ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 824 yuan per ton, a rise of 8 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased. Steel mill profits are poor, and port inventory has a certain structural shortage. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 810 - 840 yuan per ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1,202 yuan per ton, a fall of 11.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and coking coal supply - demand is weak. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1,180 - 1,220 yuan per ton [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell, continuing to digest the USDA bearish report [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose in the near - term, and the global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed. US soybean crushing increased slightly, while exports decreased [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: US soybeans are weak and in the process of finding a bottom. Domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by South American supply expectations, and near - month contracts depend on the game between the amount of state - reserve sales and customs clearance [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices rose slightly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has slowed down compared to last year, and farmers are reluctant to sell. Downstream inventory has increased, and procurement enthusiasm will decline [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell due to the uncertainty of B50 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased seasonally in December but increased year - on - year. Exports increased. The near - term inventory increased [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Edible oils are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and trade in the weak seasonal production cut cycle in the long - term. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium - term [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5,274 yuan per ton, a rise of 0.27% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International raw sugar prices fell due to Indian production pressure. Domestic sales progress is slow, and SR05 is under pressure from both imported and domestic sugar [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, ICE US cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, and international crude oil prices rose significantly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton production forecast decreased in 25/26. Domestic cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the upward trend is still valid [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Temporarily wait and see. The price reference range is 14,600 - 15,000 yuan per ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices fell, and spot prices were stable [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the de - capacity slowed down. Festival stocking drove demand, but supply is sufficient [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6][7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices rose slightly [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: The January pig slaughter volume is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end. Demand is stable in the short - term and will increase at the end of the month [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Supply is decreasing, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate stronger [6][7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 9,779 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.55% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: This year's apple production is low, with poor quality. Cold - storage apple sales are slow, and there is competition from other fruits. The post - holiday price risk depends on pre - holiday sales [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The basis strengthened, and the market transaction was okay [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is rising but slowing down. Demand in the agricultural film sector is in the off - season, while other sectors' demand is stable [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate stronger, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4,888 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.7% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the export tax - rebate cancellation policy, supply is at a high level, demand is seasonally weakening, and inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices are low. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1,097 yuan per ton, a fall of 3% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass production cuts increased, sales improved, supply decreased, and inventory decreased from a high level. Downstream demand is weak, and production is at a loss [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The basis was stable, and the market transaction was average [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is rising, and the export window is open. Downstream start - up rates increased due to national subsidy policies [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate stronger, with the upside limited by the import window. In the long - term, it is recommended to go short at high prices [8][9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose for five consecutive days due to geopolitical risks [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is still large, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is above the five - year average [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is not recommended to chase high prices. Wait for opportunities to go short or buy out - of - the - money put options [9]. Styrene (EB) - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The market trading atmosphere was average [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are at normal - to - high levels. Demand is in the off - season, and the start - up rate decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the second quarter, it is recommended to go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse spreads and long on styrene profits [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1,211 yuan per ton, a fall of 1.3% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash supply is recovering, demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to do reverse spreads or go long on glass and short on soda ash [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of large inventory drawdown. However, high MTO开工 is a prerequisite for large drawdown, and currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments, and in the short - term, shipments may remain normal. Also, changes in oil prices should be monitored, as the limited upside of methanol currently is due to weak downstream demand, and if oil prices boost other products, it may lift the price ceiling [2] - For plastic, the futures market is oscillating, while the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. Crude oil is oscillating, with oil - based and coal - based profits deteriorating. Upstream coal - chemical industries and Sinopec and PetroChina are de - stocking, while social inventory has increased this week. The supply of standard products is growing rapidly, and the supply of PE in May is expected to have a slightly large pressure [2] - For PP, the futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. Import profit is - 334, and export profit is - 225, with export volume slightly declining. Temporary maintenance plans in the supply side have increased, and the supply in January is flat compared to the previous month. Currently, the overall inventory of PP is neutral, and the supply in May and subsequent months is expected to have a slightly large pressure [3] - For PVC, the basis is - 330, up 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The upstream is stable, with an operating rate of 79.7%, up 1.1% compared to the previous period. Downstream demand is stable. The total inventory level is still moderately high. The current comprehensive profit of PVC is low, and short - term seasonal operating rate recovery is expected. In the long - term, the overall new construction demand in the domestic and foreign real estate markets remains weak, and the medium - to - long - term outlook for PVC is still poor [5] Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of江苏现货 decreased from 2285 to 2257, a decrease of 28; the price of西北折盘面 decreased from 2443 to 2430, a decrease of 13 [2] - Profit data: Import profit decreased from 8 to - 12, and主力基差 decreased from 0 to - 27 [2] Plastic - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of东北亚乙烯 decreased from 745 to 725. The price of华东LL increased from 6625 to 6825, an increase of 200; the price of华东LD increased from 8800 to 9200, an increase of 400 [2] - Inventory data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 61 to 58, and仓单 decreased from 11540 to 11222 [2] PP - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 5770 to 5940, an increase of 170; the price of华东PP increased from 6240 to 6350, an increase of 110 [3] - Inventory data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 61 to 57, and仓单 increased from 15465 to 17575 [3] PVC - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of西北电石 remained at 2400, the price of山东烧碱 decreased from 715 to 695, a decrease of 20, and the price of电石法 - 华东 increased from 4640 to 4710, an increase of 70 [4][5] - Inventory data: Upstream factory inventory increased from 30.9 to 31.3 (in 10,000 tons), and PVC social inventory increased from 111.4 to 116.4 (in 10,000 tons) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,140 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The trading volume was 380,256 lots, an increase of 30,564 lots. The position of the 05 contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 46,325 lots, a decrease of 239 lots [2]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures main spread was - 275 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan; the mixed - futures main spread was - 925 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan. The RU05 - RU09 spread was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,170 US dollars/ton, unchanged; STR20 was 1,935 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SMR20 was 1,925 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SIR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1900 - 1910 US dollars/ton (near - port) and 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton (spot), with an increase of 20/15 US dollars; Thai mixed rubber was 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; African 10 was 1855 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15/5 US dollars [2]. - **Trend Intensity**: The rubber trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, or 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [3][4]. - In terms of basis, the spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 15 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 925 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 75 yuan/ton [4]. - Recently, some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders have increased, the device capacity has been further released, and some enterprises have moderately increased production, which has boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. The domestic sales performance within the cycle was average, and the enterprise's production increase was to reserve inventory [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest price, production and sales, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, providing a basis for market analysis and investment decisions [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From January 6th to January 13th, 2026, prices of various glass products in different regions showed varying degrees of change. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 959.0 to 996.0, with a weekly change of 37.0 and no daily change on January 13th. FG05 contract price had a weekly change of 4.0 and a daily change of - 47.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production - sales ratio was 110, Hubei's was 112, East China's was 93, and South China's was 125. Shahe factories had high production - sales, with middle - stream buyers purchasing. Shahe traders' prices were around 984, with average sales. Hubei factories raised prices to around 990, with good sales [2]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China's coal - fired glass profit increased from 64.9 to 94.4, with a weekly change of 29.5 and a daily change of 6.3. The cost of North China's coal - fired glass had a weekly change of 8.5 and a daily change of - 6.3 [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From January 6th to January 13th, 2026, prices of different types of soda ash in various regions changed. For instance, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1190.0 to 1150.0 on January 13th, with a daily change of - 40.0. SA05 contract price had a weekly change of 22.0 and a daily change of - 27.0 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Upstream inventory of soda ash slightly decreased, and the output of Yuanxing's second - phase project increased. The spot price of heavy soda at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150 [2]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China's ammonia - soda method profit decreased from - 181.2 to - 211.8, with a weekly change of 11.7 and a daily change of - 30.6. North China's combined - soda method profit decreased from - 269.8 to - 303.0, with a weekly change of - 25.7 and a daily change of - 33.2 [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views LLDPE and PP - PE: HD - LL spread narrows, some full - density plants switch to LLDPE production. There is short - term positive feedback in the spot market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The marginal supply of LLDPE is expected to increase, and demand enters the seasonal off - peak season [1]. - PP: The supply and demand are both weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The balance of PP has improved significantly, and the weighted profit has recovered compared with the previous period [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures rose in the morning and then fell back. The spot was purchased as needed. The basis weakened rapidly. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance plans [4]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuated weakly. The supply is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand situation and may fluctuate weakly without new stimuli [7]. Natural Rubber - The supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yield tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. The demand has a certain boost, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to follow the futures to decline and continue to be weak in the short term [12]. - Soda Ash: The market sentiment has declined, and the supply is high while the demand has slightly decreased. The inventory needs to be reduced, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC: The price fluctuated, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. The short - term price is affected by export policies, and short positions should be temporarily on the sidelines [13]. - Caustic Soda: The market is weak. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement. The price is expected to be stable and slightly weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the price follows the crude oil to fluctuate. The strategy is to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [14]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the downstream resistance is strong. The price increase space is limited, and the strategy is to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee when it is high [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and be low - bought in the medium term [15]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to weaken in January, and the price follows the raw materials. The strategy is to short - term fluctuate in the range of 5,000 - 5,300 and low - buy in the medium term [15]. - MEG: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure, and the strategy is to pay attention to the pressure at 4,000 for EG2605 [15]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee should be shrunk when it is high [15]. - Polyester Bottle Chip: The supply and demand both decrease, and the price and processing fee follow the cost. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [15]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the upstream and downstream operating rates have changed slightly. The price is affected by factors such as supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Crude Oil - The oil price rose. The instability in Iran continues, and the potential supply risk supports the short - term strength of the oil price, but the increase is limited due to the weak overall supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices**: The prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LDPE, etc. have also fluctuated [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 6.66%, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 4.69%. The trade - related inventory of PP increased by 15.52% [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.52%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have changed. The spot prices in different regions have also fluctuated [4]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all increased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.54%, and some downstream operating rates decreased [4]. Urea - **Prices**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The production capacity has recovered, and the daily output has reached a high level [7]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the futures inventory in the factory warehouse decreased by 1.74% [9]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: The production in Thailand and Indonesia in November decreased, and the operating rates of some tire enterprises changed [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: The prices of glass in different regions and soda ash in different regions have changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash factory inventory increased [12]. - **Operating Rates**: The soda ash operating rate increased, and the float glass daily melting volume decreased slightly [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms have changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PVC and caustic soda in some regions has increased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the PVC and caustic soda industries have changed slightly [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream products such as pure benzene and styrene have changed [14]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of pure benzene and styrene has changed [14]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream polyester products have changed [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory situation of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. has changed [15]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain have changed slightly [15]. LPG - **Prices**: The futures and spot prices of LPG have increased [17]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG have decreased slightly [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG have changed slightly [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, etc. have increased, and the prices of refined oil products have also changed [19]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products have changed [19].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the outer - market US soybean futures contract declined, with the main contract approaching 1050 cents. Yesterday, the USDA released a bearish January supply - demand report. The 2025 US soybean yield remained at a high of 53 bushels, and the overall production changed little. Although the crushing demand continued to improve, the export was poor, especially other countries outside China preferred to buy Brazilian soybeans. The new - season ending stocks increased from 290 million bushels in December to 350 million bushels, higher than last year's 325 million bushels. Brazil's production estimate increased slightly due to good weather. After the report, the potential bullish expectation was shattered, and the previous strong support at 1050 cents may weaken, possibly testing the 1000 - cent support in the future [6]. - Domestic soybean meal was differentiated. The 03 contract was stronger than the 05 contract because of the logic of soybean shortage at the end of the first quarter. Today, over 1 million tons of imported soybeans were auctioned and all were sold, indicating potential spot tightness at the end of March. The 03 contract may not remain strong if there are continuous auctions of over 1 million tons. The 05 contract, mainly corresponding to Brazilian soybeans, has no current bullish factors and should be treated as bearish after rebounds [6]. Operation Suggestions - Continuously monitor the situation of imported soybean auctions. If there are continuous auctions of over 1 million tons, the 03 contract may not maintain its strength. The 05 contract should be treated as bearish after rebounds [6]. Market Data | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3124 | 3124 | 3310 | 3124 | 3154 | 30 | 0.96% | 1101456 | -74 | | | Soybean Meal 2603 | 3095 | 3119 | 3138 | 3091 | 3117 | 22 | 0.71% | 205862 | 551279 | -15977 | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 2786 | 2799 | 2805 | 2756 | 2761 | -25 | -0.90% | 1180639 | 2258105 | -34267 | [6] Group 3: Industry News - The USDA report raised the 2025/2026 US soybean area to 81.2 million acres (previously 81.1 million), production to 4.262 billion bushels (previously 4.253 billion), exports to 1.575 billion bushels (previously 1.635 billion), and ending stocks to 350 million bushels (previously 290 million). Brazil's soybean production was raised to 178 million tons (previously 175 million), and exports to 114 million tons (previously 112.5 million). Global soybean production increased to 425.68 million tons (previously 422.54 million), and ending stocks to 124.41 million tons (previously 122.37 million). China's soybean imports remained unchanged at 112 million tons [8]. - AgRural reported that the 2025/2026 Brazilian soybean harvest had started. As of January 8, 0.6% of the harvest was completed, slightly higher than last year's 0.3%. The agency expected the annual Brazilian soybean production to reach a record 6.51 billion bushels. The harvest start was slightly later than expected due to the extended growth cycle in some areas, but there was no obvious delay in the progress [8]. - On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1,139,605.33 tons of soybeans from 2022 - 2025, located in Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi. All were sold at an average price of 3809.55 yuan/ton, with delivery dates from January 15 to April 30, 2026 [9]