本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 1 7 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：12月17日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨0.30%，基差走强至-72元/吨。 金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价4604元/吨，较前一交易日上涨10元/吨。成本端布伦特原油跌破60美元；供给端PTA产能利用率 73.81%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.86天，环比减少0.06天。 主力动向：空头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：PTA之前检修的产能将逐步开始重启，去库格局不可持续；下游聚酯开工维持高位超预期，预计终端需求或将转弱，关注 聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况。预计PTA市场依旧跟随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约：12月17日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605上涨0.67%，基差走弱至-107元/吨。 基本面：今日乙二醇华东地区 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory build - up rate has widened month - on - month. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing while mixed rubber arrivals are slightly decreasing. Downstream tire manufacturers are cautious in replenishing stocks, with a mostly wait - and - see purchasing sentiment and low overall outbound volume. In terms of demand, the resumption of production by previously overhauled enterprises has driven a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous rise of finished product inventory, there is a possibility of individual enterprises undergoing maintenance or reducing production in the later stage. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,650 in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,390 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,570 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,820 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 146,495 lots, up 14,415 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 61,828 lots, up 2,594 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30,266 lots, up 1,040 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,485 lots, up 428 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 87,160 tons, up 2,900 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 59,573 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,930 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 545 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 53.8 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.36%, up 0.67 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.76%, up 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is under short - term pressure, with high domestic arrivals and inventory accumulation. Overseas, there is room for the price difference between the US and South Korea to repair. The supply side has shown negative feedback, but it has limited ability to offset the arrival pressure. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream overall starts are declining continuously [2]. - Styrene maintains a pattern of low start - up and inventory reduction. Short - term supply tightening supports the price, but the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the pull on the price increase is limited. It may maintain a volatile trend in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamentals - On December 16, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.09% at 6,493 yuan/ton, and the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.15% at 5,440 yuan/ton. The closing price of Brent crude oil was 56.8 US dollars/barrel (- 0.6 US dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 60.6 US dollars/barrel (- 0.5 US dollars/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,295 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene port inventory was 14.7 tons (- 1.4 tons), and pure benzene port inventory was 26.0 tons (+ 3.6 tons). The weekly output of styrene was 34.2 tons (+ 0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 68.3% (- 0.6%). Among the downstream 3S, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 53.8% (- 2.6%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 70.5% (+ 2.2%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 58.3% (- 0.7%) [2]. Views - Pure benzene: The short - term pressure on the fundamentals of pure benzene is mainly on the real - time side. The domestic arrival volume remains high, and the inventory in the main port accumulates rapidly. The supply side has negative feedback, but the demand side is in the off - season, and downstream starts are decreasing [2]. - Styrene: The styrene market continues the pattern of low start - up and inventory reduction. Short - term supply tightening supports the price, but the demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is limited. It may maintain a volatile trend [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On December 16, the main contract of styrene futures increased by 0.09% to 6,493 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased by 0.09% to 6,780 yuan/ton. The main contract of pure benzene futures decreased by 0.15% to 5,440 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China decreased by 0.38% to 5,295 yuan/ton. The prices of pure benzene in South Korea FOB, the US FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [5]. - The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 4.33% to - 378.6 yuan/ton, and the spread between East China and Shandong of pure benzene decreased by 133.33% to - 5 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.08% to 56.8 US dollars/ton, and the price of WTI crude oil decreased by 0.92% to 60.6 US dollars/ton. The price of naphtha remained unchanged [5]. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From November 28 to December 5, the output of styrene in China increased by 2.32% to 34.2 tons, and the output of pure benzene decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 tons. The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu decreased by 2.19% to 16.1 tons, and the factory inventory of domestic styrene decreased by 7.19% to 17.6 tons. The national port inventory of pure benzene increased by 36.59% to 22.4 tons [6]. Capacity Utilization Rate - From November 28 to December 5, among the downstream of pure benzene, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased by 1.56% to 68.9%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam decreased by 7.53% to 79.2%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 0.57% to 81.7%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline increased by 0.04% to 77.2%. Among the downstream of styrene, the capacity utilization rate of EPS increased by 1.61% to 56.4%, the capacity utilization rate of ABS decreased by 2.90% to 68.3%, and the capacity utilization rate of PS increased by 1.40% to 59.0% [7]. 3. Industry News - Canada provided an additional 235 million Canadian dollars in aid to Ukraine [8]. - The ADP employment in the US in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations [8]. - Fitch lowered the oil price expectations from 2025 to 2027, reflecting the market oversupply [10]. - Despite US pressure, Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there were signs of weakness in some areas of the US economy and interest rate cuts were needed [10]. - From November 28 to the week ending on that day, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 574,000 barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of pure benzene and styrene, the spread between styrene and pure benzene, the import and domestic costs of styrene's pure benzene, the inventories of styrene ports, factories, and ABS, the port inventory of pure benzene, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [15][20][24][30][31]

| | | | | | | | ---------------- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2605 | JM2609 | 7000 | | | 1000 | ...

转自：智通财经 转自：智通财经 【碳酸锂期货主力合约涨6％ 今年累计涨近40％】智通财经12月17日电，碳酸锂期货主力合约涨6％， 报107000元/吨，创2024年5月以来新高，今年累计涨近40％。 【碳酸锂期货主力合约涨6％ 今年累计涨近40％】智通财经12月17日电，碳酸锂期货主力合约涨6％， 报107000元/吨，创2024年5月以来新高，今年累计涨近40％。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月17日，多晶硅期货主力合约日内涨超3%，创上市以来新高。 每经AI快讯，12月17日，多晶硅期货主力合约日内涨超3%，创上市以来新高。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the peak of short - term arrivals in China has passed, the inventory accumulation rate has slowed but the absolute inventory level remains high. Overseas gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the price difference between the US and South Korea has been repaired. Domestic production has decreased due to low profits, and downstream demand remains weak. For styrene, port inventory has been falling, but the port basis has started to decline. Downstream demand is weak during the off - season [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+13), and the spot - M2 spread is - 140 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 122 yuan/ton (-51 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 119 dollars/ton (+5 dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+6 dollars/ton). The US - South Korea price difference is 187.9 dollars/ton (-9.0 dollars/ton). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is - 146 yuan/ton (-46 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+0.00 million tons), and the operating rate is not mentioned. Styrene's East China port inventory is 134,700 tons (-12,100 tons), East China commercial inventory is 82,300 tons (-5,500 tons), and the operating rate is 68.3% (-0.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit is 201 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton), PS production profit is 1 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 874 yuan/ton (+24 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 53.77% (-2.59%), PS operating rate is 58.30% (-0.70%), ABS operating rate is 70.53% (+2.23%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 360 yuan/ton (-30), phenol - acetone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 611 yuan/ton (-237), adipic acid production profit is - 1029 yuan/ton (+46). Caprolactam operating rate is 74.57% (-4.58%), phenol operating rate is 79.50% (-2.50%), aniline operating rate is 75.94% (-1.29%), adipic acid operating rate is 59.20% (-0.80%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Do reverse spreads for BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high - Cross - variety: None [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-17 近期市场资讯，库存晚富士果农一般货源稍有松动，产区价格走弱后成交暂无明显好转，淡季影响仍表现明显。 西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，成交有限，部分产区果农一般货源价格区间随质量下滑略降低， 成交不多；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，果脯及小果价格略有降低，少量维纳斯、奶油 果按需出库，其余货源基本尚未开始交易。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、70#出库价格 1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农货半商品出库价格3.8-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农一般通货出库价格3.7-4.5 元/斤不等。库存晚富士价格稳中偏弱，整体走货节奏缓慢，节日备货尚未开始，目前下游终端市场走货不快，低 价柑橘冲击依旧明显。预计今日成交维持平淡，主流价格稳定。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价震荡下跌，产区整体走货速度偏慢，双节备货热情不足，苹果质量欠佳，果农着急出售，终端走货 仍以按需采购为主，销区到货增加但消化不快，柑橘类低价对苹果中下等货源形成持续挤压，库存和优果偏低问 题持续存在。上周晚富士苹果主产区出库节奏偏缓，客商以按需采购为主，其 ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-17 豆一受终端消费低迷压制，花生油料交投难有起色 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4090.00元/吨，较前日变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.97%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+110，较前日变化+40，幅度32.14%。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2601合约7962.00元/吨，较前日变化-90.00元/吨，幅度-1.12%。现货方面，花生现货均价 8105.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.49%，现货基差PK01-1162.00，环比变化+90.00，幅度-7.19%。 市场资讯汇总：现货方面：昨日，全国花生市场通货米均价4.07元/斤，下跌0.01元/斤，其中，河南麦茬白沙通货 米好货3.5-3.9元/斤不等、8筛精米4.25-4.4元/斤，豫、鲁、冀大花生通货米3.4-4.5元/斤，辽宁、吉林白沙通货米4.6-4.8 元/斤、8筛精米5.1-5.25元/斤，花育23通货米4.4元/斤左右，以质论价。油厂油料米合同采购报价6800-7600元/吨， 部分工厂报价上调50元/吨，严控指标 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [11]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [11]. Report's Core View - The support for natural rubber is still at the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand may support the raw material prices, but the overall supply is increasing. Domestic port inventory is expected to rise further, and downstream tire orders are in the off - season, resulting in weak supply - demand drivers [11]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, supply remains abundant. Downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - In the futures market, on the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,385 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [1]. - In the spot market, the price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Market Information - In November 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks was 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - duty truck market this year [2]. - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million units and 3.429 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [2]. - In December 2025, the trading of all - steel tires was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, market demand weakened further. With relatively sufficient market supply, channels and terminal stores mainly focused on digesting existing inventory, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average. The market transaction price was stable with a weak trend, and some merchants carried out promotional activities according to their inventory [2]. - From January to October 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume reached 586.64 million, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2]. Import and Export Data - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified, latex, smoked sheets, primary shapes, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3]. - According to QinRex data, in the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total exports of standard rubber were 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the exports of latex were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the exports of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the exports of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 270 yuan/ton (+30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 30), the NR basis was 570 yuan/ton (- 35); the price of full - latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (unchanged); the STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (unchanged); the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,350 yuan/ton (- 100) [4][5]. - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.69 Thai baht/kg (+0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.25 Thai baht/kg (+1.89), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (- 1.39) [6]. - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.55% (+0.55%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.14% (+1.81%) [7]. - The social inventory of natural rubber was 498,888 tons (+10,159), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,123,406 tons (+20,841), the RU futures inventory was 56,990 tons (+11,460), and the NR futures inventory was 59,573 tons (+2,218) [7]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 330 yuan/ton (- 85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton (+100), the quoted price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private cis - butadiene rubber was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,207 yuan/ton (- 214) [8]. - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 70.69% (- 2.84%) [9]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,450 tons (+220), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (- 600) [10]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The support for natural rubber comes from the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand are expected to keep the raw material prices in Thailand firm this week. However, the overall supply is increasing, and the domestic port inventory is expected to rise. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, so the supply - demand drivers are weak [11]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. Yulong Petrochemical has restarted, and only Maoming Petrochemical is under maintenance, which is expected to restart in mid - January. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber remains abundant. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11].