Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 截至 07 月 03 日： | | | | | RU2509 合约收盘价为 14015 元/吨，日跌幅 0.78%。 | | | | | NR2508 合约收盘价为 12125 元/吨，日跌幅 1.22%。 | | | | | BR2508 合约收盘价为 11185 元/吨，日跌幅 0.67%。。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.本周上海全乳胶周均价 14000 元/吨，+150/+1.08%；青岛市场 20 号泰标周均价 | | | | | 1724 美元/吨，+29/+1.71%；青岛市场 20 号泰混周均价 13926 元/吨，+156/+1.13% | | | | | 2.截至 7 月 3 日，OSE12 月 RSS3 橡胶收盘价 310.5 日元/公斤，日跌幅 0.80%。 | | | | | 3.本周中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为 64.13%，环比-6.27 个百分点，同比-15.85 | | | | | 个百分点 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of macro - improvement and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, with a small accumulation expected in July. Long - term attention should be paid to the price increase driven by stronger - than - expected consumption under the background of supply constraints [4]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [6]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 114,240 lots and a position of 281,092 lots. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 474,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 356,975 tons, up 350 tons from the previous day [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market transaction premium is still falling, and social inventory shows signs of accumulation. The supply of the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited by the production capacity ceiling, and the industry profit is rich. The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short term, beware of price drops due to inventory accumulation; in the long term, pay attention to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption [4]. Alumina - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price was 361.6 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,026 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 336,450 lots and a position of 279,051 lots. The alumina warehouse receipt was 21,000 tons [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, and the new project of Guangtou is about to be put into production. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [5][6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 15,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of aluminum alloy was 108,800 tons, up 2,100 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围较昨日回落，贸易商商谈为主，零星聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差跌幅扩大。 下周货在09+120~145有成交，个别略低在09+100附近，价格商谈区间在4860~4920附近。7月中下在09+110~140有成交。7月下在 09+105~125有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+127。中性 2、基差：现货4872，09合约基差126，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.09天，环比减少0.06天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏多 5、主力持仓：净 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is influenced by different factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and industry news [2][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Metals Copper - Core view: The rise of the US dollar restricts the price increase [6]. - Fundamental data: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80,560 yuan with a daily increase of 0.02%; LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,952 dollars with a decrease of 0.58% [6]. - News: The US June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and several copper - related projects and production data were reported [6][8]. Tin - Core view: Driven by the macro - environment, the price goes up [9]. - Fundamental data: Shanghai tin main contract closed at 268,420 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.04%; LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,805 dollars with an increase of 0.66% [10]. - News: A series of macro - economic news from the US and other countries was reported [11]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Core view: For nickel, the support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upside elasticity; for stainless steel, the inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [13]. - Fundamental data: Various price and trading volume data of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot are provided [13]. - News: There are news about potential export restrictions, new production projects, and production resumptions in the nickel industry [13][14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: The inventory accumulation pattern continues, and attention should be paid to the upside space [19]. - Fundamental data: A large amount of data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and inventories are presented [20]. - News: The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and there were rumors about lithium salt factory overhauls [21][22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Core view: For industrial silicon, the sentiment is fermenting, and the disk fluctuation is magnified; for polysilicon, market news is fermenting, and the disk fluctuation intensifies [23][24]. - Fundamental data: A wide range of data on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and inventories are provided [24]. - News: Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary completed a strategic capital increase [26]. Iron and Steel Products - Core view: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils are boosted by macro - sentiment and are in a strong - side shock [28][29]. - Fundamental data: Price, trading volume, and other data of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot are given [29]. - News: Steel production, inventory, and demand data, as well as relevant economic policies, are reported [30][31]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Core view: Both are in wide - range shocks [32]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are provided [32]. - News: Price quotes and production reduction news of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are reported [33]. Coke and Coking Coal - Core view: The anti - involution signal is fermenting, and both are in a strong - side shock [35]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of coke and coking coal are provided [35]. - News: Quotes of coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index data are reported [35][36]. Power Coal - Core view: The daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes in a shock [39]. - Fundamental data: The previous trading data of power coal futures are provided [40]. - News: Quotes of power coal in southern ports and domestic production areas, as well as position - holding data, are reported [41]. Energy and Chemicals Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - Core view: Paraxylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and it is recommended to do positive spreads on dips; for PTA, go long on PX and short on PTA; MEG is in a single - side shock market [43]. - Fundamental data: A large amount of data on futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and processing fees of PX, PTA, and MEG are provided [44]. - News: Market price and production - related news of PX, PTA, and MEG are reported [45][47]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Core view: Rubber is in a shock operation; synthetic rubber's shock operation pattern continues [49][54]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of rubber and synthetic rubber are provided [50][54]. - News: Order data of tire enterprises and inventory data of synthetic rubber - related products are reported [51][55]. Asphalt - Core view: Temporarily in a shock, pay attention to geopolitical factors [57]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data, as well as inventory and production rate data of asphalt, are provided [57]. - News: Weekly production, factory inventory, and social inventory data of asphalt are reported [69]. LLDPE - Core view: In the short term, it is in a strong - side shock [70]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of LLDPE are provided [70]. - News: There was an accident at a polyethylene plant, and supply - demand analysis and inventory data are reported [71]. PP - Core view: The spot is in a shock, and the trading is dull [74]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of PP are provided [74]. - News: The PP futures had a limited impact on the spot market, and trading was weak [75]. Caustic Soda - Core view: Pay attention to the impact of liquid chlorine [77]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of caustic soda are provided [77]. - News: Supply and demand, cost, and potential production reduction news of caustic soda are reported [78]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Related Products - Core view: Palm oil rises due to the positive sentiment of US soybean oil; soybean oil lacks driving force due to insufficient weather speculation of US soybeans; soybean meal may fluctuate; soybean No.1 is in a spot - stable and disk - shock state [5][55]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text. Corn, Sugar, Cotton, etc. - Core view: Corn is in a shock operation; sugar is in a range consolidation; cotton's futures price is supported by the market's optimistic sentiment [59][61][62]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text. Eggs, Pigs, and Peanuts - Core view: For eggs, the peak season is approaching, and it is difficult to increase the culling; for pigs, the short - term sentiment is strong; for peanuts, there is support at the bottom [64][65][66]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text.

2025年07月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美豆油情绪偏好，国际油脂上涨 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆小幅收涨，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 8 | | 棉花：期价受市场乐观情绪支撑 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季将至，淘汰难增 | 11 | | 生猪：短期情绪偏强 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 4 日 棕榈油：美豆油情绪偏好，国际油脂上涨 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly, affecting the PX trend. The risk premium has been fully reversed, and the PX price has fallen back to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise in the future depends on whether there are more unexpected factors [2]. - PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Its own fundamentals have weakened month - on - month, but there is no inventory accumulation. If the polyester production cut increases in the future, PTA will be relatively weaker [2]. - The supply of polyester bottle - chips may decrease, and the market liquidity is expected to tighten. The downstream terminal has rigid demand, and the restocking sentiment may improve [2]. - The polyester industry chain's demand is not optimistic currently, and it generally fluctuates with the cost. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On July 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.00 per barrel, down 0.67% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.80 per barrel, down 0.45% [1]. - **Naphtha and Xylene**: The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577.38 per ton on July 3, 2025, up 0.90%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $728.50 per ton, down 1.49% [1]. - **PX**: The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00 per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.59%; the closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6740 yuan per ton, down 0.74% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4746 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 1.00%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4881 yuan per ton, down 0.87% [1]. - **PR and Polyester Bottle - chips**: The closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5894 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.77%; the market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6000 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8875 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.84%; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6760 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged on July 3, 2025, at 78.98%, 76.84%, 88.52%, and 75.15% respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms decreased by 3.73 percentage points to 61.22% [1]. - The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips were 33.00%, 46.00%, and 51.00% respectively on July 3, 2025. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament decreased by 7.00 percentage points, and that of polyester staple fiber decreased by 14.00 percentage points, while that of polyester chips increased by 20.00 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - The US - Vietnam trade agreement and Trump's tariff statement have boosted market sentiment. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the PX price has fallen back. The PX inventory is at a historical low, and the bottom support is relatively stable [2]. - The PTA spot market atmosphere is not good, the spot basis continues to weaken, and the PTA inventory is in a downward channel in absolute terms but at a near - five - year high in relative terms. The polyester production cut plan is limited, and the PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market price has declined. The supply side of bottle - chips may reduce production, and the downstream terminal has rigid demand [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation. The TA2509 contract closed at 4746 yuan per ton (-0.67%) with a daily trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX is affected by maintenance news, and the PX2509 contract closed at 6740 yuan per ton (-0.30%) with a daily trading volume of 222,900 lots. PR follows the cost, and the 2509 contract closed at 5894 yuan per ton (-0.47%) with a daily trading volume of 47,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].

2025 年 07 月 04 日 工业硅：情绪发酵，盘面波动放大 多晶硅：市场消息发酵，盘面波动加剧 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） Si2509成交量（手） | 8,010 | -200 | 290 | 940 | | | | | 1,196,542 -447,106 | | 108,921 | 810,987 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 380,840 | -5,521 | 59,498 | 180,647 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2508收盘价（元/吨） | 35,050 | 0 | 3,335 | - | | | | PS2508成交量（手） | 482,063 | 70,477 | 257,028 | - | | | | PS2508持仓量（手） | 76,908 | ...

商 品 研 究 | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 222,192 | 223,883 | -1691 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 500 | 500 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 540,519 | 915,052 | -374532 | | | | | 山东地区基差 | 6 3 | 5 1 | 1 2 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -77 | -109 | 3 2 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜可交割品） | 2 3 | 2 1 | 2 | | | 月 差 | | UR09-UR01 河南心连心 | 3 8 1,810 | 4 1 1,790 | - 3 2 0 | | | 尿素工厂价 | | | | | | | | | | 兖矿新疆 | 1,500 | 1,560 | -60 | | | | | 山东瑞星 | 1,780 | 1,780 | 0 | | | | | 山西丰喜 | 1,660 | 1,630 | 3 0 | ...

Group 1 - Rebar steel production increased for the third consecutive week, with a production volume of 2.21 million tons, up 1.49%, while demand rose to 2.25 million tons, up 2.26% [1] - In the 2024/2025 crushing season, Yunnan province is expected to process 18.06 million tons of sugarcane, a 16.91% increase from the previous season, resulting in a sugar production of 2.42 million tons, up 19% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is projected to be 1.99 million tons by June 2025, a slight decrease of 0.24% from May, with production expected to drop by 4.04% to 1.7 million tons, while exports are anticipated to rise by 4.16% to 1.45 million tons [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that approximately 8% of U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought as of July 1, down from 12% the previous week and compared to 9% last year [1] - U.S. soybean export net sales for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 462,000 tons, aligning with market expectations, while export shipments totaled 252,000 tons [2] - Canadian canola seed exports increased by 47.16% to 173,500 tons, with commercial inventory at 1.21 million tons as of June 29 [2] Group 3 - As of July 3, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises was 6.91 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 131,000 boxes or 0.19%, with inventory days reduced to 29.9 days [2] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.81 million tons, an increase of 40,700 tons or 2.30% [2] - There are rumors of maintenance shutdowns at two domestic lithium salt smelting plants, with one in Jiangxi planning a two-month halt, while another in Sichuan continues normal production [2]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a nationwide unified market is a strategic initiative for China's economic reform, emphasizing the role of the futures market as a crucial component in this process [1][4]. Group 1: Role of the Futures Market - The futures market serves as an important venue for resource allocation and is a key tool in building the nationwide unified market [2]. - It acts as a "barometer" for price discovery, providing a basis for value consensus across the unified market, exemplified by the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper futures pricing becoming a benchmark for domestic spot trading [2]. - The futures market offers effective risk management tools, ensuring stability for large-scale transactions across regions and cycles, which is essential as the unified market expands [2]. Group 2: Resource Allocation and Market Integration - The futures market functions as an intelligent hub for resource allocation, guiding the optimal distribution of production factors nationwide based on current supply and demand as well as future market expectations [2]. - It promotes the coordination of industries, such as the apple industry in Shaanxi and Shandong, by providing unified price signals that help avoid regional surpluses or shortages [2]. Group 3: Standardization and Market Rules - The futures market acts as a practical platform for institutional unification, providing a testing ground for the integration of national market rules through its standardized contracts and trading regulations [3]. - The development of the futures market encourages the standardization of the spot market in areas such as quality standards and logistics, exemplified by the impact of rebar and crude oil futures on industry standards [3]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite its benefits, the futures market faces challenges such as insufficient liquidity for certain products and low participation from real enterprises [3]. - Future efforts should focus on enriching the futures product system, particularly with more agricultural and energy-related products, and improving market participant structures to enhance the utilization of futures tools [3].