交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货冲高回落，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差偏强。少量聚酯工厂补货，本周下周主港在09升水 215~225成交，个别偏高，价格商谈区间在4800~4910附近。6月底主港在09升水210~215有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+217。 中性 6、预期：PTA前期检修装置陆续重启，叠加下游聚酯负荷下调，供需面对PTA支撑减弱，PTA现货价格偏弱震荡，基差方面，短 期内现货市场货源偏紧，现货基差偏强运行，伴随供应回归后续有回落预期。关注PTA新装置投产进度及下游聚酯负荷变动。 2、基差：现货4855，09 ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and closed low on June 10, 2025, with a nearly 2% decline in the afternoon. The market sentiment is expected to continue weakening. Although supply has decreased slightly due to temporary inspections in some factories, the daily output remains around 200,000 tons, limiting the upside of the futures price. The demand is weak, with slow agricultural demand and low operating loads in compound fertilizer factories. After the wheat harvest, agricultural demand is expected to increase, but it may not change the oversupply situation. The current low price may lead to a rebound, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment is expected to weaken. Supply decreased slightly, but daily output is still around 200,000 tons, restricting the upside. Demand is weak, and after the wheat harvest, agricultural demand may increase but has limited support [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,700 yuan/ton and closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, a -1.24% change. The trading volume was 268,833 lots (+2,976 lots). The positions of the top 20 main players showed a decrease of 6,305 lots in long positions and an increase of 955 lots in short positions. On June 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,051, a decrease of 2 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: After a price cut yesterday, orders improved and prices were slightly raised. However, with the decline in futures today, the market sentiment is expected to weaken. The ex-factory prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market price was stable, while the futures closing price declined. The basis of the September contract in Shandong strengthened by 19 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On June 10, 2025, the national daily urea output was 202,200 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous day [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to sufficient supply of raw material butadiene, the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber production has weakened. Affected by weak cost and bearish macro - economic expectations, traders are selling at a loss. Last week, producers' inventory increased slightly while traders' inventory decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline last week. Although the output of some plants will gradually return to normal as the maintenance enterprises restart, the overall order performance of tire enterprises is average and the inventory clearance is slow, which restricts the increase of capacity utilization rate. The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 21,708 lots, a decrease of 1,273 lots. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber was - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 5,720 tons, a decrease of 60 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 67.04 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.57 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 65.29 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.71 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 567.88 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.38 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 147,800 tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 67.25%, a decrease of 6.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; the producers' inventory was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the traders' inventory was 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.86%, a decrease of 4.39 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.47%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 5th, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period (May 28th, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. As of June 5th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.12 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94 percentage points. Due to the "Dragon Boat Festival holiday", some enterprises carried out shutdown maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report issued by ITG Guomao Futures' Agricultural Products Research Center on June 10, 2025, with analyst Huang Xianglan [2][3] Group 2: Spot Basis Data - 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was -39 on June 9, up 11; in Tianjin -79, up 11; in Rizhao -139, up 31; in Zhangjiagang -119, down 9; in Dongguan -159, up 31; in Zhanjiang -119, up 11; in Fangcheng -119, up 21 [4] - Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was -184 on June 9, down 6 [4] Group 3: Spread Data - M9 - 1 was -41; N9 - RM9 was -3; RM9 - 1 was 263; spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 430, up 40; spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 405, up 3 [4][5] Group 4: Supply Situation - Domestic arrivals of Brazilian soybeans in May, June, and July 2025 are expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. As of June 9, the ship - buying progress is 94.4% for June, 80.6% for July, and 33.8% for August. US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early growth [5] Group 5: Demand Situation - From the perspective of inventory, pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September; poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, leading to increased downstream transactions and better提货 [6] Group 6: Inventory Situation - As of last week, domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period. Soybean meal inventory also continued to accumulate but is still at a low level. With the significant recovery of开机 and pressing, soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate at an accelerated pace in June [6] Group 7: Core View - The precipitation in Nebraska and surrounding areas in the US production area has been relatively low recently, but there is no high - temperature cooperation. Brazilian premium has slightly declined tonight. Domestic soybean and soybean meal continue to accumulate inventory, but the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is currently relatively slow. Domestic basis continues to decline. The pressure of Brazilian soybean arrivals is expected to continue to be reflected in the basis and near - month contracts. As domestic ship - buying progresses, the short - term upward space of M09 is expected to be relatively limited [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persists, and prices remain stable with strong cost support. However, the oversupply of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to experience a weak oscillation in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, despite steel mill production cuts, overall demand is sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,280 yuan/ton and closed at 122,710 yuan/ton, a 0.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 115,890 lots, and the open interest was 76,246 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose rapidly in the night session, then oscillated and fell back to near the previous day's closing price. In the day session, it oscillated up to near the night - session high and then slightly declined, closing with a medium - sized positive candle. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have implemented production cuts due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area persists due to rainfall. The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month [2][3][4]. - China's estimated refined nickel output in June is 37,345 tons, a 3.75% increase month - on - month. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was average, with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged but strong cost support at the bottom [2]. - The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,192 (35.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,092 (- 1,014) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Range - bound operation. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,715 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,364 lots, and the open interest was 146,067 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and fell to the previous low after a slight consolidation in the night session. In the day session, it dropped rapidly to a new low and then rebounded slightly, closing with a medium - sized negative candle. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Similar to the nickel situation, the shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have cut production due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. The nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area in Indonesia persists due to rainfall [3][4]. - The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month. The high - nickel iron price is 950 - 960 yuan/nickel, and some Indonesian iron plants have switched to high - grade nickel matte production [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price dropped slightly. The price limit of Tsingshan 304 hot - and cold - rolled products was lowered by 100 yuan, and traders' cold - rolled prices followed suit. The market had rigid demand for purchases, and the trading of low - price resources was average. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,050 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 465 - 665 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 949.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term: Neutral. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with limited upside and downside potential due to low inventory levels and supply disruptions, despite weakening downstream consumption [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to the weakening US economy, increased tariffs, and the approaching off - season, despite the current strong de - stocking of aluminum ingots and bars [2][4]. - Nickel prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - to - long term due to supply overcapacity, although cost support limits the downside [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, while paying attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Category 1. Base Metals - **Copper**: As of June 9, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.13% to 78,910 yuan/ton. Tariffs and Sino - US leader phone calls bring positive expectations, but downstream consumption is weakening. Social inventory is low and stable, and the upside and downside of copper prices are limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of June 9, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.20% to 20,025 yuan/ton. Guinea's mine - end disruptions will affect imports in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and aluminum downstream开工率 is decreasing. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][4]. - **Nickel**: As of June 9, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract rose 0.47% to 122,710 yuan/ton. There are supply shortages in nickel mines, and the nickel industry has over - capacity. Cost support limits the downside, but prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - **Tin**: As of June 9, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.31% to 263,740 yuan/ton. Tin ore supply is improving, but the improvement is limited. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and range trading is recommended [6]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Spot market transactions are light, with holders holding firm on prices and downstream buyers making small - quantity purchases on dips. Traders are waiting for negotiation results and inventory inflection points [7]. - **Aluminum**: Spot aluminum market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases. Holders are more willing to sell, but traders are cautious [8]. - **Zinc**: Spot market trading volume has increased slightly. Holders lower premiums to stimulate sales, and downstream buyers purchase on dips, but macro uncertainties limit restocking [10][11]. - **Lead**: Spot market trading is light, with traders focusing on selling and downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Spot market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases and trading mainly among traders [14][15]. - **Tin**: Spot market transactions are light due to high prices [16]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: Copper, zinc, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increased, while aluminum and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - **LME**: Copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply and demand of rebar weakened, with production and demand both showing poor performance. Given the low inventory, the rebar price will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.06%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. The supply of hot-rolled coil continued to rise, while demand was weak and stable. With the increase in inventory, the price of hot-rolled coil will be under pressure. Considering the easing of Sino-US trade risks, the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.71%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. With the weakening of steel mill production in the off-season, the demand for iron ore was weak, while the supply was increasing. Given the deep discount of the futures price, the iron ore price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Some sectors showed positive price changes [8]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [9]. - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, and imported 48,100 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 7.9%. China imported 98.131 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, a month-on-month decrease of 4.9%, and imported 36.04 million tons of coal and lignite, a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% [10]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and other products are presented in a table, including prices in different regions and price changes [11]. 3. Futures Market - The futures prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are presented in a table, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [13]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil [15][16][18]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as seasonal inventory changes [20][21][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of independent electric furnaces [29][30][31]. 5. Future Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand of rebar weakened. Production continued to decline, and demand was also poor. With low inventory, the rebar price will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [38]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The supply of hot-rolled coil continued to rise, while demand was weak and stable. With the increase in inventory, the price will be under pressure. Considering the easing of Sino-US trade risks, the price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. Demand was weakening, while supply pressure was increasing. Given the deep discount of the futures price, the price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [40].

芳烃橡胶早报 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 63.9 559 842 4945 6990 90.11 283.0 334 106 85.3 76.4 56044 220 0.35 65.6 562 824 4915 6990 80.56 262.0 409 137 85.3 81.3 55840 200 0.35 64.9 563 825 4865 6950 87.21 262.0 360 161 85.3 81.3 55447 195 0.35 65.3 557 820 4845 6930 78.19 263.0 368 155 85.3 81.3 65665 200 0.45 66.5 561 818 4895 6930 73.27 257.0 419 118 85.6 81.3 65665 215 0.40 变化 1.2 4 -2 50 0.00 -4.92 -6.0 51 -37 0.3 0.0 0 15 -0.05 PTA现货成交 日均成交基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in June is expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased compared to the previous period. The report also provides trading strategies for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy, suggesting investors to take corresponding actions based on market conditions [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Shanghai Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract on June 6, 2025, was 20,070 yuan, up 60 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 113,736 lots, a decrease of 13,402 lots; the open interest was 181,458 lots, a decrease of 2,706 lots; and the inventory was 47,792 tons, a decrease of 349 tons [2] 3.1.2 Shanghai Aluminum Basis - The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum on June 6, 2025, was 20,230 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai aluminum basis was 160 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Alumina Spot Price - The national average price of alumina on June 6, 2025, was 3,269.68 yuan/ton, down 4.05 yuan from the previous day. The prices in different regions showed different degrees of change [2] 3.1.4 Alumina Futures Price - The closing price on June 6, 2025, was 2,901 yuan, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 696,379 lots, an increase of 20,294 lots; the open interest was 298,435 lots, a decrease of 21,037 lots; and the inventory was 92,768 tons, a decrease of 3,906 tons [2] 3.1.5 London Aluminum - The closing price of the LME 3 - month aluminum futures (electronic trading) on June 6, 2025, was 9,670.5 yuan, down 37 yuan from the previous day. The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 69.84 yuan, a decrease of 23.31 yuan; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 132.5 yuan, a decrease of 26.84 yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Alumina - In Shanxi and Henan, some mines have resumed production. In Guinea, some mining rights have been revoked or some enterprises have been required to stop production. In Guangxi, a ten - year special inspection on illegal mining and heavy - metal pollution will be carried out. These factors may lead to a decrease in the production and import volume of domestic bauxite in June, but the demand is expected to be weak. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of Chinese alumina have increased compared to the previous week [3] 3.2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Some electrolytic aluminum projects in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and other places are under construction or have been put into production. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are expected to increase in June. The import volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum may increase, but the closing of the import window may limit it. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China has decreased compared to the previous week [3] 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - American enterprises are actively competing for overseas scrap aluminum procurement. The production and import volume of domestic scrap aluminum in June may decrease. The production capacity utilization rate of primary and secondary aluminum alloys in China has changed, and the inventory of aluminum alloy has increased compared to the previous week [3] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Alumina**: Due to potential fluctuations in bauxite production in Guinea and Guangxi, the downward space for alumina prices is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 2,600 - 2,900 yuan and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,500 yuan [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Although the inventory of aluminum and aluminum rods is decreasing, the traditional consumption off - season is approaching. The price of electrolytic aluminum may fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19,800 - 20,000 yuan and the resistance level around 20,300 - 20,500 yuan for domestic aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,400 yuan and the resistance level around 2,500 - 2,600 yuan for London aluminum [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production and import of recycled cast aluminum alloy are in a loss state. The price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy may widen. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity of arbitrage by lightly holding positions to test long the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, focusing on the support level around 19,500 yuan and the resistance level around 20,700 - 20,800 yuan [3]