Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing seasonal adjustments in transaction volumes, leading to increased efforts in recovering idle land reserves [1] - The report highlights a significant decline in new home sales, with a 51.6% decrease week-on-week and an 18.4% decrease year-on-year for the week of July 5-11, 2025 [13] - The second-hand housing market shows a slight recovery with a 0.1% increase week-on-week, although it remains down 6.3% year-on-year [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market as a necessary condition for economic transformation, suggesting that current policies are beginning to take effect [8] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Views - The report suggests that the current policy environment recognizes the need for a stable and healthy real estate market for economic development, indicating a potential turning point in the current cycle [8] - Recommendations include strong local state-owned enterprises and quality private companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group [8] 2. Real Estate Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1. Real Estate Market Conditions - New home sales in 36 cities totaled 144.4 million square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 51.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% [13] - Cumulative sales from January 1 to July 11, 2025, reached 54.9 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year [13] 2.2. Land Market Conditions - The report notes a significant decrease in land supply, with a 40.6% drop in building area supplied in the week of July 7-13, 2025 [40] - The average land price per square meter was reported at 1506 RMB, reflecting a 2.7% increase week-on-week [45] 2.3. Real Estate Financing Conditions - In the week of July 7-13, 2025, real estate companies issued a total of 24 credit bonds amounting to 21.68 billion RMB, marking a 111.6% increase week-on-week [51] - The net financing amount for the week was reported at 2.48 billion RMB [51] 5. Investment Recommendations - For real estate development, recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a focus on companies with strong shareholder backing [8] - In property management, recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, and Poly Property [8] - For real estate brokerage, the report recommends Beike and suggests paying attention to Wo Ai Wo Jia [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector experienced a decline of 1.00% this week, following a previous increase of 3.77% [1][13] - Year-to-date, the banking sector has risen by 16.59%, ranking second among all industries, with a focus on the investment value of bank stocks [1] - Key banks to watch include China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The A-share banking index fell this week, with 17 out of 42 banks seeing an increase in stock prices [2][12] - State-owned banks had an average increase of 1.08%, while joint-stock banks saw a slight decline of 0.08% [2][15] - Over the past month, state-owned banks increased by 8.98%, while joint-stock banks rose by 9.80% [2][15] Funding Price Situation - The central bank's reverse repo operations decreased, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan this week [3][28] - The overnight SHIBOR rate rose to 1.33%, and the 7-day SHIBOR rate increased to 1.48% [3][31] - The average overnight repo rate for deposit institutions was 1.34%, reflecting a rise of 3 basis points [3][31] Bond Market Situation - Total bond market financing reached 17,057.9 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 2,087.7 billion yuan compared to last week [4][41] - Financial bonds issuance was 4,071.5 billion yuan, up by 2,030.5 billion yuan from the previous week [4][41] - Government bonds saw a rise in yields, with the 1-year yield at 1.37% and the 10-year yield at 1.67% [5][43] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The issuance of interbank certificates totaled 4,259 billion yuan, an increase of 1,833 billion yuan from last week [54] - The weighted average issuance rate was 1.61%, down by 1 basis point [54]

Market Overview - Global major asset performance shows A-shares leading with a rise of 1.71% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by 1.02% [2][3] - The real estate sector led the A-share market with a weekly increase of 6.12%, while the banking sector saw a decline of 1.00% [2][4] Industry Performance - The real estate industry increased by 6.1% this week, while steel rose by 4.4%, and non-bank financials by 4.0% [4][5] - The banking sector experienced a decline of 1.0% year-to-date, while the real estate sector is down 1.4% [4] Strategic Insights - The market is showing signs of a "bull market atmosphere," with the A-share index breaking through key levels, indicating a potential for sustained upward movement [6][7] - The upcoming fiscal policies in the U.S. and the anticipated improvements in the supply-demand dynamics in China by 2026 are expected to enhance market sentiment [6][8] Key News - The introduction of a long-term assessment mechanism for insurance funds is expected to bring in significant capital inflows into the A-share market [10] - The recent announcements regarding the optimization of the ChiNext index and the implementation of new trading regulations are aimed at enhancing market liquidity and investment quality [11][12]

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies, particularly following the recent political bureau meeting [4] - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed performance, with June CPI rising by 0.1% year-on-year and PPI declining by 3.6% [5][19] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) projects that China's economic increment during the 14th Five-Year Plan will exceed 35 trillion yuan, with an expected total economic output of around 140 trillion yuan this year [19][20] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced an overall increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.82% and CSI 300 futures up by 1.75% [2][12] - Commodity futures also saw significant gains, with coking coal futures increasing by 7.00% and iron ore futures up by 3.87% [2][12] - In the bond market, the yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 1.67%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.27% [2][12] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an asset allocation hierarchy favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash, indicating a bullish outlook on equities [6] - The recommendation for stocks is to overweight, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [4][6] - Bonds are advised to be underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [4][6] Industry Insights - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, leading the market with a 6.06% increase, driven by supportive policies [36] - The non-bank financial sector also performed well, increasing by 3.94% [36] - The automotive industry faced a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.56%, indicating potential challenges despite overall market growth [36] Economic Policy Developments - The government has introduced new employment support policies aimed at stabilizing jobs, including expanding loan support for maintaining employment [20] - The NDRC has allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for central budget investments to promote employment among key groups [20] - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to enhance the inclusive childcare service system, which is expected to support family stability and economic growth [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, prompting an increase in the recovery of idle land [4][59] - The sales performance has shown initial stabilization in 2025, with supportive policies expected to continue, aiding the industry's steady development [4][59] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the 28th week of 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in 68 cities was 169 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19% and a month-on-month decrease of 44% [6][18] - The cumulative transaction area from the beginning of the year to date in 68 cities reached 67.28 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 9% [6][18] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in 20 cities was 186 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8% [35] Investment Performance - In the 28th week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 29.91 million square meters, and the transaction area was 26.68 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 49% [38] - The premium rate for land transactions was 4.9% [38] - The land market in Wuhan was active, with four residential land parcels sold, one of which had a premium of over 15% [4][59] Financing Performance - In the 28th week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 15.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61% and a month-on-month increase of 72% [47] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds reached 200.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13% [47] Market Overview - The real estate index rose by 6.12% in the week of July 7-13, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 0.82% [52][54] - The real estate sector ranked first among 28 sectors in terms of performance [52][54]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant achievements and ongoing efforts in urban development in China, guided by the leadership of Xi Jinping, highlighting the unique path of urbanization that aligns with Chinese characteristics [1][5][13]. Group 1: Urban Development Achievements - Over 690 cities in China accommodate 940 million people, showcasing the rapid urbanization process [1]. - The urbanization rate of the permanent population increased from 53.1% in 2012 to 67% in 2024, with over 1.5 million new urban jobs created from 2013 to 2024 [10]. - By 2024, 27 cities are projected to have a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan [10]. Group 2: Urban Planning and Governance - The central government emphasizes the importance of urban planning, stating that effective planning is crucial for sustainable urban development [8][24]. - The "Five Coordinations" principle was introduced to enhance urban work, focusing on spatial, structural, and management aspects [7]. - Xi Jinping has called for a shift towards more refined urban management, likening it to "embroidery" to ensure precision in urban governance [19][20]. Group 3: Community and Public Services - The government has made strides in improving public services for urban residents, including healthcare, education, and housing [14][34]. - Urban renewal initiatives have led to the renovation of 280,000 old residential communities, benefiting over 120 million people [34]. - The focus on community governance aims to enhance the quality of life for residents, ensuring their needs are met [26][27]. Group 4: Environmental and Cultural Preservation - Significant improvements in urban ecological environments have been noted, with 87.2% of cities achieving good air quality [30]. - The preservation of historical and cultural sites is prioritized, with efforts to maintain the integrity of urban heritage [32][33]. - Urban development strategies are designed to integrate nature into city planning, promoting green spaces and sustainable practices [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Treasury bond futures significantly corrected this week. The "anti-involution" signal and the market's expectation of real estate updates created short-term bearish sentiment. The stock-bond seesaw effect continued to amplify, and the bond market was under full pressure. However, the current weak economic fundamentals remain unchanged, coupled with a balanced and loose capital situation. There is still room for policy easing under low inflation, and the long-term support logic of the bond market is difficult to be substantially broken in the short term. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts**: The main contracts of 30-year (TL2509), 10-year (T2509), 5-year (TF2509), and 2-year (TS2509) Treasury bond futures fell by 0.49%, 0.25%, 0.24%, and 0.09% respectively this week. The closing prices of the main contracts of each term are presented in corresponding charts [12][16][22]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased. The open interests of the main contracts of TS and T decreased, while those of TF and TL increased [30]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: "14th Five-Year Plan" achievements show that China's economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 1.4 quadrillion yuan. In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. The State Council issued a notice on further strengthening employment stabilization policies. In the first half of 2025, significant breakthroughs were made in prospecting for important minerals in China [33]. - **Overseas News**: US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1, 2025, and plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on 22 countries starting from August. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait-and-see [35][93]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10-year and 5-year, 10-year and 1-year Treasury bonds, as well as the spreads between the main contracts of 2-year and 5-year, 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures all narrowed slightly. The inter - term spreads of 10-year contracts narrowed slightly, while those of 30-year contracts widened slightly. The inter - term spreads of 2-year contracts narrowed slightly, and those of 5-year contracts fluctuated [43][47][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [64]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates increased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates decreased. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of domestic Treasury bonds weakened, with the 1 - 7Y yields rising by about 3.2 - 4.0bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 1.9bp and 2.5bp to 1.66% and 1.87% respectively. The yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds both narrowed slightly [68][72]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 425.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 652.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47% [75]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1.145151 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 850.151 billion yuan and a net financing of 295 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1475, with a cumulative increase of 60 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased slightly, the VIX index decreased significantly, the 10 - year Treasury yield in China increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [81][87][90]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In June, the price level continued to be under pressure. The CPI index improved marginally, turning from a year - on - year decrease to an increase. The PPI of industrial products remained in the negative range, falling into a deflationary range of negative growth for 7 consecutive months. The "anti - involution" signal and the issuance of fiscal subsidy funds in July may support subsequent prices and promote a moderate recovery of the inflation level [93]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US labor market continues to show resilience, and trade risks have resurfaced. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait - and - see, and there is no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [93]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with major repo rates rising slightly. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the bond market weakened significantly. The convertible bond market followed the equity market and rose, with most individual convertible bonds increasing. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a policy briefing on the "1 + 6" reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The National Development and Reform Commission plans to increase investment in key areas of new - type urbanization using "two important and two new" funds [3]. - **International News**: On July 10, Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July, stating that the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive [4]. - **Commodities**: On July 10, international crude oil futures prices declined (WTI August crude futures fell 2.19% to $66.88/barrel, Brent September crude futures fell 2.2% to $68.64/barrel), while international natural gas prices rose (NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.96% to $3.365/ounce), and COMEX gold futures rose 0.38% to $3333.67/ounce [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On July 10, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 57.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 32.8 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with DR001 rising 0.56bp to 1.323% and DR007 rising 1.78bp to 1.495% [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 10, affected by factors such as the continuous improvement of the stock market, marginal tightening of liquidity, and rumors that Hebei Province guided rural commercial banks to reduce the proportion of bond investments, the bond market weakened significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 1.45bp to 1.6595%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 1.40bp to 1.7380% [11]. - **Bond Tendering**: Details of bond issuances including various bonds such as 25贴现国开清发02, 25国开清发02(增发19), etc., are provided, including their tenors, issuance scales, winning yields, over - subscription ratios, and marginal ratios [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 10, 2 industrial bonds ("H1碧地02" down over 34% and "23亦庄06" up over 11%) and 1 urban investment bond ("20泗阳佳鼎债" down over 18%) had transaction price deviations exceeding 10% [14][15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Events include bond restructuring of Longfor Group, regulatory warnings for Lan创建设, debt - related issues of Xi'an Quwen Investment, Jiangsu Nantong Sanjian, etc., as well as bond repayment and interest - rate adjustment plans of some companies [16]. 3.4 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 10, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.48%, 0.47%, and 0.22% respectively, and the full - day trading volume reaching 1.52 trillion yuan. The main convertible bond indexes also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.40%, 0.40%, and 0.45% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 68.377 billion yuan, a decrease of 994 million yuan from the previous trading day. Among 469 convertible bonds, 338 rose, 123 fell, and 8 remained flat [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 10, Zhite Convertible Bond announced an early redemption, and Hongcheng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to meet the early redemption conditions [19]. 3.5 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury remained unchanged at 3.86%, while yields of other tenors generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury rose 1bp to 4.35%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 1bp to 49bp, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 93bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 1bp to 2.34% [20][21][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond remained unchanged, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.66%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, and Spain rose 4bp, 4bp, and 1bp respectively [23]. - **Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on July 10 are provided, including daily and monthly changes of bonds issued by companies such as Oceanwide, Country Garden, NIO, etc. [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of today's futures main contracts. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while silver, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures will oscillate with an upward bias. Rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and glass futures will also have a relatively strong oscillation, and crude oil futures will oscillate weakly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with Egyptian Prime Minister Madbouly, expressing China's willingness to strengthen development strategy alignment and expand cooperation in emerging fields [8]. - Chinese Vice - Premier Ding Xuexiang met with former US Treasury Secretary Paulson, stating that China is a major stabilizing factor in the world and hopes the US to develop mutually beneficial and stable economic and trade relations [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Finance interpreted policies restricting EU medical device procurement, with specific budget thresholds and exceptions for EU - funded enterprises in China [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Urban and Small Town Reform and Development Center aims to promote high - quality new urbanization actions [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US negotiations, rumors about Huang Renxun's visit to China, and refuted von der Leyen's remarks on over - capacity [9]. - China's retirees' basic pensions have increased by 2% since January 1, 2025 [9]. - In the first half of this year, local governments issued nearly 1.8 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, and experts suggest continuing debt risk resolution in the second half [9]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates and considered appointing a "shadow chairman" [10]. - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025 [10]. - Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July and reducing the balance sheet [10]. - Fed's Daly believes the Fed may cut rates twice this year, with policy uncertainties [11]. - Fed's Musalem said future inflation expectations may rise due to tariffs [12]. - The US Department of Defense will invest $4 billion in MP Materials [12]. - US initial jobless claims decreased for the fourth consecutive week, while continuing claims remained high [12]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for polysilicon futures contracts [12]. - International oil prices fell due to concerns about global demand and an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories [12]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, supported by inflation concerns and central bank gold purchases [13]. - London base metals mostly closed higher, with copper prices showing an oscillatory trend [13]. - OPEC adjusted its global oil demand forecast, and OPEC + is discussing production adjustments [13]. - China's summer grain production was stable in 2025 [13]. - China's auto production and sales increased in June, especially for new energy vehicles [14]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar strengthened, and the exchange rate is expected to appreciate further [14]. - The US dollar index rose due to global trade uncertainties [14] 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On July 10, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all showed an upward trend with varying degrees of increase. It is expected that in July 2025, these stock index futures will have a relatively strong oscillation, and on July 11, they will continue this trend with specific resistance and support levels provided [15][19][20]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 10, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures both declined. It is expected that on July 11, they will continue to oscillate weakly, with specific resistance and support levels given [40][42][45]. Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures showed an upward trend on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range oscillation, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate and consolidate. Silver futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate with an upward bias and may reach new highs [45][46][52]. Base Metal Futures - Copper futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range oscillation, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate and consolidate. Aluminum futures rose on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate with an upward bias. Alumina, zinc, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures all showed upward trends on July 10, and it is expected that on July 11, they will continue to oscillate with an upward bias [55][61][66]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, but on July 11, the main contract will oscillate weakly. PTA and methanol futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 11, while PVC and soda ash futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate and may attack resistance levels [7][102][108]. Building Materials and Metals Futures - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures all showed upward trends on July 10. It is expected that on July 11, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and glass futures will continue to oscillate with an upward bias, and soda ash futures will oscillate and consolidate and may attack resistance levels [4][82][90]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - Lithium carbonate futures had a slight decline on July 10. It is expected that on July 11, it will oscillate with an upward bias and may attack resistance levels [79].