Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of April 2025, the total social financing stock reached 424 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [1] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 262.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [1] - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing was 16.34 trillion yuan, which is 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Group 2 - New RMB loans added in the first four months amounted to 9.78 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 339.7 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Net financing from corporate bonds was 759.1 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 409.5 billion yuan year-on-year, while net financing from government bonds was 4.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.58 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated due to factors such as debt replacement and pilot projects for special bonds [1] Group 3 - The stock financing has seen a steady increase year-on-year, influenced by a warming in equity financing and a low base from the previous year [1] - Off-balance-sheet financing, including entrusted loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills, increased by 95.9 billion yuan and 149.4 billion yuan respectively, continuing to support the real economy [1] Group 4 - Experts indicate that strong fiscal support and a rapid pace of bond issuance this year have effectively supported social financing, contributing to domestic demand expansion and credit easing [1] - The macroeconomic policies have shown positive effects this year, with increased fiscal policy strength and a more proactive pace being significant factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the financial data for April indicates a stable and supportive monetary policy environment, which is effectively aiding the real economy. The growth in M2 and social financing reflects a positive trend in financial support for economic activities [1][2][17]. Financial Data Overview - In April, the M2 balance reached 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, which is 1.0 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][13]. - The total social financing stock was 424 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, with an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan in April alone, which is 1.22 trillion yuan more than the previous year [1][4]. Government Bond Issuance - The acceleration in government bond issuance has significantly contributed to the increase in social financing. From January to April, net financing from government bonds exceeded 5 trillion yuan, which is approximately 3.6 trillion yuan more than the previous year [4][6]. - In April, the issuance of special long-term government bonds and refinancing bonds for hidden debt replacement contributed to a net financing of about 970 billion yuan, boosting the social financing growth rate by approximately 0.3 percentage points [4][6]. Credit Growth and Structure - The total increase in RMB loans from January to April was 10.06 trillion yuan, roughly in line with the previous year. Notably, inclusive small and micro loans grew by 11.9%, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector increased by 8.5%, both exceeding the overall loan growth rate [1][8]. - As of the end of April, the RMB loan balance was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%. Adjusting for the impact of local government debt replacement, the actual loan growth rate remains above 8% [9][17]. Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The article indicates that the current monetary policy is supportive, with the People's Bank of China implementing effective measures to stabilize the economy. The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, down 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points from the same period last year [18]. - Experts anticipate that the effects of the moderately loose monetary policy will continue to manifest, especially if external conditions improve [18].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a downward - centered and weak manner, and will be in a state of shock consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and individual ones after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a shock - consolidated manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand. [3] For Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The US CPI increased by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the consumer price index decreased by 0.1% in March. The easing of trade tensions reduced the market's expectation of an economic recession. [2] - Last week, the total operating capacity of alumina enterprises decreased slightly by 80,000 tons/year. In the short - term, the operating capacity may fluctuate. The spot price may rebound slightly, but the cost - side support is weakening, and the price is expected to move in a shock in the short - term. [3] - Last week, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%. [3] - On May 12, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 35,000 tons from May 6. It is expected to break through the 600,000 - ton mark this Thursday. [3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream operating rates, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release. [4]

Inflation Data - April CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected -0.2% and the previous value of -0.1%[11] - April PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, also better than the expected -2.8% and the previous value of -2.5%[11] Economic Stability - The year-on-year CPI remained stable compared to March, with a two-year average growth rate slightly improving to 0.1%[12] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, recovering from a 0.4% decline in March, outperforming the historical average of -0.1%[12] Core CPI and Demand - Core CPI remained low, indicating weak terminal demand and sluggish consumption, necessitating accelerated domestic demand policies[7] - Food prices showed a seasonal increase, with a 0.2% month-on-month rise, driven by supply factors[12] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau proposed more proactive macro policies to address domestic demand shortages and external shocks[8] - A package of financial policies was launched in early May, including interest rate cuts and structural tools to stimulate domestic demand[8] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation exceeding expectations, and escalating trade tensions[17] - Ongoing monitoring of policy implementation, US-China tariff negotiations, and fiscal measures is essential for future economic stability[8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of finished products showed a pattern of rising and then falling due to low demand. Given the current macro and fundamental situation, it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices after a rebound. For raw materials, there may still be a rebound in the near term, and short - selling can be attempted during the rebound [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate - From May 5th to May 11th, the total contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4548 million square meters, with a 13.2% month - on - month increase and a 17.7% year - on - year decrease [2] White Goods - According to the online market monitoring data of Aowei Cloud Network, in April, the year - on - year growth rates of the online retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners were +1.0%, - 0.8%, +10.8%, +45.0%, and +34.8% respectively [2] Steel Industry - On May 13th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3334 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 87 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 18 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 12 yuan/ton. On May 13th, the ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was reduced by 20 yuan to 2950 yuan. On May 12th, the release of the "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the United States was beneficial at the macro - level, leading to a rebound in many commodity varieties. However, there was still pressure on the domestic demand side. In the industry, due to the still - existing profits of steel mills, the hot - metal output and steel mill operating rates increased last week, but the downstream was gradually entering the off - season of demand, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the steel price was under pressure [2]

Report Title - Macro atmosphere rebounds, steel prices rebound from lows - Weekly Report 20250512 [1] Core Views - The implementation of the "package of financial policies" by the State Council Information Office and the substantial progress in the China - US talks have boosted market confidence, and the macro atmosphere has improved. After the holiday, affected by factors, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased. It is expected that the demand will improve on a low - base basis in the week after the holiday, and steel prices will be supported at low levels and show a phased rebound [3]. - The supply of iron ore shows a phased contraction, and the iron ore supply - demand structure has improved, which, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere, leads to a phased rebound of the black series after over - decline. The main iron ore contract should pay attention to the pressure around 730 - 750 [4]. - After the holiday, the overall supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and the online auction turnover rate is still low. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, but the second - round price increase of coke has been shelved. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, it is stable in the short - term at low levels and should be treated with an oscillatory view [5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - After the holiday, with the implementation of macro - policy expectations, the market returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. Affected by the holiday, the demand for the five major steel products declined significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, the market pessimism rose, the futures prices fell significantly, the spot prices decreased synchronously, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 223.53 tons (down 4.22% month - on - month and 3.07% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 320.38 tons (up 0.34% month - on - month and down 1.46% year - on - year). The production of both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar decreased [15][17][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast - furnace operating rate remained stable at 84.62% (up 0.34 month - on - month and 4.99% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate slightly decreased to 72.73% (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 13.32% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils shrank month - on - month. The rebar profit was + 90 yuan/ton (down 29.69% week - on - week and 24.37% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil profit was + 30 yuan/ton (down 39.47 week - on - week and 58.93% year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 213.9 tons (down 26.67% month - on - month and 26.32% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 309.53 tons (down 6.97% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year). The demand for rebar declined significantly, and the demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 653.63 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year), with the factory inventory increasing and the social inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 365.12 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and down 13.37% year - on - year), with the factory inventory slightly decreasing and the social inventory increasing [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 18.97% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 12.36% month - on - month and 58.37% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% [46][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 97.82 (up 0.64% month - on - month and down 15.95% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2422.5 tons (down 4.64% month - on - month and 0.95% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2354.6 tons (down 3.88% month - on - month and up 9.70% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily pig - iron output was 245.64 tons (up 0.22 tons month - on - month and 6.39 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.21 tons (down 5.01% month - on - month and up 5.95% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.48 days (down 3.94% month - on - month and 9.60% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 14238.71 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and 3.83% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8958.98 tons (down 4.03% month - on - month and 3.91% year - on - year) [66][71]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 89.92% (up 0.20% month - on - month and 3.26% year - on - year), the coal - washing plant operating rate was 62.42% (down 0.87% month - on - month and 2.62% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 13.37 tons (up 63.10% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [73][77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was + 1 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month and 62 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.05% (down 0.50% month - on - month and up 4.29% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 775.13 tons (down 4.33% month - on - month and up 7.69% year - on - year), the steel - mill coking coal inventory was 787.41 tons (up 0.36 month - on - month and 6.33% year - on - year), and the port coking coal inventory was 297.81 tons (down 4.48% month - on - month and up 30.91% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 65.09 tons (down 2.94% month - on - month and up 43.53% year - on - year), the steel - mill coke inventory was 671.03 tons (down 0.62% month - on - month and up 20.53% year - on - year), and the port coke inventory was 229.08 tons (down 3.80% month - on - month and up 2.97% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week and 780 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 700 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][103]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread also widened. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread widened in the short - term [105][110]

值得注意的是，近期央行频频释放稳汇率信号。5月7日，央行行长潘功胜在国新办举行的新闻发布会上 表示："坚定维护中国的汇市、债市、股市等金融市场平稳运行。"在近期发布的《2025年第一季度中国 货币政策执行报告》中，央行再次强调"三个坚决"——坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市 场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 展望未来，民生银行首席经济学家温彬对《证券日报》记者表示，人民币汇率将保持平稳双向波动格 局。随着中美贸易摩擦缓和，人民币贬值压力将有所减弱。同时，在4月下旬中共中央政治局会议提出 要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期后，国内政策也将陆续发力显效，为外汇市场的平稳运行奠定 良好基础，预计人民币汇率大概率将在合理均衡水平上维持基本稳定。 Wind资讯数据显示，5月12日，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率上涨超400个基点， 在岸人民币对美元汇率上涨近330个基点。5月13日，人民币对美元汇率延续向上势头。截至当日17时， 离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.1787，创下自去年11月11日以来的新高；在岸人民币对美元汇率 盘中最高升至7 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布后，市场情绪受到很大提 振，是人民币汇率在美元指数快速冲高过程中走强的主要原因。这意味着人民币正在经历一个全面升值 过程。 王青还表示，近期人民币汇率出现稳中偏强走势，还与国内宏观政策释放稳增长信号直接相关。4月25 日中央政治局会议做出明确部署，要求"加强超常规逆周期调节"，"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策"。这意味着尽管外部经贸环境变数加大，但接下来宏观政策将采取强有力的对冲措施，着力稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有效稳定宏观经济运行。这也对人民币汇率提供了重要支撑。 中国人民银行在2025年第一季度《中国货币政策执行报告》中表示，2025年以来国际形势复杂严峻，主 要经济体宏观政策不确定性明显上升，对全球经济增长产生负面冲击，全球金融市场剧烈波动。一季 度，中国人民银行坚持市场在汇率形成中起决定性作用，发挥好汇率对宏观经济、国际收支的调节功 能，综合施策，保持预期平稳，在复杂形势下保持住人民币汇率的基本稳定。 21世纪经济报道记者 林秋彤 北京报道 5月13日，在岸和离岸人民币汇率双双拉升，重回7.20元以内，同时创下自2024年 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 主 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡下跌，其中 30 年期国债期货跌幅居前。消息面，中美双方发布日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明，双方各下降了 91%的税率，暂停了 24%的税率，观察期为 90 天，标志着两国经 贸关系进入阶段性缓和，国债的避险需求快速回落，风险资产的风险偏好快速回升。从中长期的角度 ...

3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 基本面拖累，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空因素交织，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：中美就关税问题在瑞士达成重要共识，商务部发言人证 ...