Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts is still tight, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the peanut prices are relatively weak in the short term [5][10] - Peanut oil prices are stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable [10] - PK510 peanuts are trading new crops, with many uncertainties such as weather. In the short term, they will fluctuate at the bottom. However, due to the expected increase in planting area and decrease in planting cost, PK510 will still fluctuate within a narrow range [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: PK504 closed at 7972, up 26 (0.33%), with a trading volume increase of 200.00% and an open interest increase of 1.43%; PK510 closed at 8188, up 12 (0.15%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.04% and an open interest decrease of 3.44%; PK601 closed at 7970, up 10 (0.13%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.54% and an open interest increase of 3.88% [3] - **Spot Market**: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - **By - product Market**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was stable at 2790 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was weak in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [8] - **Price Difference**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 2, down 16; the PK04 - PK10 spread was - 216, up 14; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 218, up 2 [3] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price remaining at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8220 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see in the short term as PK510 peanuts fluctuate at high levels [11] - **Spread**: Go for reverse arbitrage when the PK10 - PK01 spread is low [12] - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's pressing profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, the spread between PK10 and PK01 contracts, and the spread between PK3 and PK10 contracts [16][19][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the coking coal and coke markets, including market logic, trading strategies, and fundamental factors. It also offers important industry news and policy updates [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Trading Strategies and Spot-Futures Market Conditions - **Trading Strategies**: For coking coal, short - term small - scale long positions can be taken after it breaks through the key pressure level, and risk - averse investors can wait for a pull - back to replenish long positions. For coke, long positions can be continued on a single - side basis with proper position control, and a spot - futures positive spread strategy should be maintained [4][5][12]. - **Domestic Prices**: In the futures market, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1456.00, up 31.50, and the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 871.50, up 28.00. In the domestic spot market, prices of various grades of coke and coking coal remained stable compared to the previous day [13][14]. - **Import Prices**: The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal was 748.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal was 940.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of imported coking coal from other regions such as Australia and Russia showed different degrees of change [17]. - **Base - spread Situation**: The base - spread data for coke and coking coal from different sources are provided, with the futures prices and corresponding converted warehouse - receipt prices presented [20]. Part 2: Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% compared to the previous period. The daily output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%, and the daily output was 53.66 tons, with a change of 1.21 tons [23]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking coal at six ports was 304.27 tons, with a change of 18.68 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants was 848.18 tons, with a change of 39.20 tons, and that of steel mills was 789.60 tons, with a change of 8.39 tons. The inventory of coke at four ports was 191.12 tons, with a change of - 8.97 tons, and the coke inventory of coking plants and steel mills also showed different degrees of change [25]. Part 3: Spreads No specific numerical or descriptive content about spreads is provided, only a list of related spread charts is given [31]. Other Important Information - **Industry News**: The US Treasury Secretary believes that the market may be pricing in Trump's view on interest - rate cuts, and Trump plans to impose new tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, etc. The Japanese Prime Minister responded to the US tariff issue. China's National Development and Reform Commission official mentioned the development of infrastructure in the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [3].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格上涨 18 元至 5892 元/吨。持仓方面，主 力合约 2509 持仓量为 4.41 万手，持仓+410 手。现货市场方面，华东市场水瓶级瓶 片价格稳定至 5945 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳定至 6000 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 35.42 万吨，较上周减少 1.14 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 77.5%，较上周下降 2.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5725 元，下降 3.1%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-300 元/吨，环比增加 70.9 元/吨。 | | 能源与化 工 | 瓶片 | 震 荡 偏 强 | 2、需求方面，2025 年 5 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 61.9 万吨，较上月增加 3.82 万吨。 2025 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for polysilicon has increased by over 4%, currently priced at 40,780 yuan per ton [1] - The main contract for industrial silicon has risen by over 3%, currently priced at 8,410 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated within a range yesterday, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere improved compared to the previous day. The basis continued to be weak, and the decline in the afternoon widened. The current market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the social inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the PTA spot price will still fluctuate and adjust following the cost side in the short term, and the supporting effect may appear after the rapid decline of the spot basis. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ meeting and the polyester load fluctuations [6]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is gradually changing, and the inventory accumulation expectation is obvious in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the upper side of the ethylene glycol disk is under pressure. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be mainly sorted in a low range. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the return efficiency of the supply side and the changes in the cost side [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated, spot negotiation improved, basis weakened, and suppliers offered for sale. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 91, and the price negotiation range is 4780 - 4820 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4805, the 09 - contract basis is 80, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main force position: Net short position, short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: The price center was narrowly sorted, the basis was stable, and the spot negotiation was around a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The overseas market price center was sorted at a low level [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4343, the 09 - contract basis is 68, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.2 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared to the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main force position: The main force is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in inventory and supply - demand gap [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, along with the supply - demand difference [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as the basis, spread, and profit data on July 8 and July 7, 2025 [13]. 3.5 Price - **PTA and MEG Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers are provided, along with the changes in basis, spread, and profit on July 8, 2025, compared to July 7, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha increased by 1.5 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PX decreased by 7 dollars/ton [13]. - **PET Bottle - Chip Related Prices**: The historical data of the spot price, production gross profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of PET bottle - chips are presented [16][18][21][24]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - **PTA Inventory**: The historical data of the PTA factory inventory available days in China are shown [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: The historical data of the MEG port inventory in the East China region are provided [42]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: The historical data of the inventory available days of PET slices, polyester fibers (POY, DTY, FDY, short - fiber) in China are presented [44][51]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - **Upstream**: The historical data of the operating rates of PTA, PX, and ethylene glycol in China are provided [53][55]. - **Downstream**: The historical data of the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the PTA industry chain are presented [57][59]. 3.8 PTA Processing Fee and MEG Profit - **PTA Processing Fee**: The historical data of the PTA processing fee in China are shown [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: The historical data of the production gross profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol, coal - based syngas, naphtha integration, ethylene) in China are presented [63][64]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: The historical data of the production gross profit of polyester short - fiber and long - fiber (DTY, POY, FDY) in China are provided [66][68][69][70].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3315.35 with a change of 0.00 [3] - London Silver latest price is 36.25 with a change of 0.00 [3] - London Platinum latest price is 1384.00 with a change of 0.00 [3] - London Palladium latest price is 1103.00 with a change of -27.00 [3] - WTI Crude latest price is 67.93 with a change of 0.00 [3] - LME Copper latest price is 9852.00 with a change of 54.00 [3] - US Dollar Index latest is 97.55 with a change of 0.00 [3] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.17 with a change of 0.00 [3] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.36 with a change of 0.00 [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 146.07 with a change of 0.00 [3] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 2.05 with a change of 0.00 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 15499.06 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 1334.73 with a change of 4.03 [4] - Gold ETF持仓 latest is 946.51 with a change of -1.15 [4] - Silver ETF持仓 latest is 14935.15 with a change of 66.41 [4] - SGE Silver inventory latest is 1323.23 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 1 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 1 with a change of -1.00 [4]

【冠通研究】 行情偏强整理 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走日内上涨，现货市场平稳运行为主，部分工厂开始下调 价格。基本面来看，日产变动不大，前期检修装置本期陆续有复产情况，预计 产量将有增加。需求端，农业需求状况好于工业需求，农业需求目前也维持低 位拿货，适量补库，预计本月东北华北地区都将迎来收尾，届时尿素需求将迎 来空窗期。复合肥工厂开工负荷低位，处于秋季肥生产初期阶段，订单以去化 厂内库存为主，工厂销售压力不大，秋季肥多为预收订单，工厂目前观望情绪 浓厚，对尿素保持刚需拿货。库存受上游装置检修影响，及出口快速集港的影 响，连续去化，减轻供应端压力。整体来说，目前现货端需求表现欠佳，但目 前仍处于夏季肥收尾阶段，下游仍有采购需求，叠加工厂出口订单支撑，集港 陆续进行，盘面依然有支撑，短期依旧以震荡偏强为主，继续关注出口政策情 况。 【期现行情】 【基本面跟踪】 基差方面：今日现货市场主流报价下行，期货收盘价上移；以山东地区为基 准，基差环比上个交易日走弱，9 月合约基差 47 元/吨（-15 元/吨）。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 多晶硅主力合约触及涨停，涨幅7%，现报38385元/吨。 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 点评 7 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 8045 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.69%，持仓 减仓 5935 手至 38.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8777 元/吨，较上一交 易日上调 39 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格涨至 8250 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 240 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2508 收于 36515 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.86%，持仓增仓 25069 手至 10.24 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格涨至 36000 元/吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格涨至 36000 元/吨，现货对主力升 水转为贴水 515 元/吨。工业硅供给南增北减，增复产同期并存下整体库 存压力缓解有限，工业硅多空博弈激烈、波动率提升，仓单下降但社库积 累压制反弹空间，仍以高抛思路对待。多晶硅短期矛盾在于下游硅片原料 采购承压和行业反内卷减产预期加速。当前交易逻辑处于政策调控消息发 酵期内，盘面低位存在支撑，可选择观望或轻仓试多。重点关注双硅减产 执行力度，以及 PS/SI 比价回升后多 PS 空 SI 机会。 工业硅日报 ...

2025年07月08日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：特朗普征税函显示对日韩等 14 国征收 25%到 40%不等关税、8 月 1 日生效，欧盟或接近协议。市 | | | | | | | | | | | | 场再度抛售美股美债，风险偏好下行。华东华南平水铜现货升水 70 元和贴水 50 元成交。伦敦结构 77 美金 | | | | | | | | | | | 铜 | back。精废价差 1600 元附近。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：铜供应端紧张难以缓解，等待回撤企稳买入机会。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日-1. ...