中信建投研报认为，受美联储降息预期推动，全球权益市场整体风险偏好提升，A股震荡重返3900点。 关注降息落地及点阵图对2026年降息路径的指引，若释放鸽派信号，或进一步提振科技股；若强调通胀 风险，可能引发短期波动。随着美联储降息为流动性改善提供确认信号，以及中央经济工作会议为"十 五五"开局定调，继续布局跨年行情。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [27][28][29] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, convertible bonds rose slightly, and the valuation continued to decline as previously predicted, but then rebounded significantly after reaching the previous average. The anti - decline attribute of convertible bonds remained strong. The valuation rebound was mainly driven by equity - biased convertible bonds, while debt - biased ones were still weak. There is a clear valuation bottom, and the valuation top has loosened [6][9] - There is still strong support from the supply and demand sides, and the equity market is optimistic due to various policies. Although the current cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, there are still structural opportunities. Attention can be appropriately given to oversold bottom - position and defensive varieties. Be vigilant against the unexpected forced redemption risk of high - premium individual bonds. In December, short - term allocation can be made if there is a correction, and trading opportunities are greater than trend opportunities [6][9] - Last week, the equity market continued to rise driven by various positive factors. However, there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment at the end of the year. Overseas, the market was waiting for the result of the Fed's December interest - rate cut, and domestically, it was waiting for the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference. Institutional funds were under pressure from performance assessment and position adjustment, showing a cautious and optimistic attitude overall [6][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Valuation Rebounds after Decline, and Style Continues to Differentiate - Convertible bonds rose slightly last week. The valuation continued to decline as predicted, then rebounded significantly after reaching the previous average. The anti - decline attribute was strong. The rebound was mainly driven by equity - biased convertible bonds, and debt - biased ones were weak. The valuation bottom is clear, and the top has loosened [9] - There is strong support from supply and demand, and the equity market is optimistic due to policies. Despite the low cost - performance of convertible bonds, there are structural opportunities. Pay attention to oversold bottom - position and defensive varieties, guard against forced redemption risks of high - premium bonds. In December, short - term allocation can be considered for corrections, with more trading opportunities [9] - The equity market rose last week due to positive factors. But there was wait - and - see sentiment at year - end. Overseas awaited Fed's decision, and domestically awaited the Central Economic Work Conference. Institutional funds faced assessment and adjustment pressure, showing cautious optimism [9] 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Rise Slightly, and Valuation Rebounds after Decline 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Close Higher, and Trading Volume Continues to Decline - The equity market was weak first and then strong last week, continuing to rebound. Most indexes rose, such as the ChiNext Index (1.86%), the BeiZheng 50 (1.49%), and the CSI 300 (1.28%), while only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell slightly (0.08%) [13] - In terms of industries, non - ferrous metals, communication, and national defense and military industry led the gains, while media, real estate, and beauty care led the losses. The average daily trading volume decreased by 44.115 billion yuan to 1.69 trillion yuan [13] - The top ten rising convertible bonds last week were Yakelai Convertible Bond, Weidao Convertible Bond, etc. The more active ones in trading were Furong Convertible Bond, Dongshi Convertible Bond, etc [13] 3.2.2 Significant Trading Volume Contraction, and High - price, Medium - and High - rated Convertible Bonds Perform Well - Convertible bonds rose slightly last week. The valuation rebounded significantly after reaching the previous average, and the average daily trading volume dropped significantly to 50.91 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08%, the parity center decreased 0.3% to 110.7 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased 0.3% to 20.6% [20] - In terms of style, high - price, medium - and high - rated convertible bonds performed well last week, while large - cap and double - low convertible bonds performed weakly [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in the A-share market, indicating a continuation of volume contraction and a rotation of themes, with market participants awaiting new guiding signals [3][11]. - The A-share market saw a slight increase in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the CSI 300 by 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, indicating a stronger performance in growth styles compared to value styles [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 16,870 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous week, reflecting a cautious market sentiment as it approaches significant policy meetings [11]. Group 2 - The non-bank financial sector is influenced by the recent notification from the financial regulatory authority, which aims to encourage insurance funds to invest more in specific equity assets by adjusting risk factors [4][12]. - The commercial aerospace sector has shown active performance due to recent event-driven catalysts, with significant developments in rocket launches and tests, suggesting a potential shift from emotional to logical investment strategies [4][12][13]. - Precious metals, particularly silver, have experienced a rapid price increase due to global liquidity recovery and supply-demand dynamics, with long-term trends expected to be influenced by the narrative of shrinking dollar credit [4][13]. Group 3 - The public fund market is undergoing a transformation with the introduction of new performance assessment guidelines aimed at correcting past issues of short-term incentives and soft accountability, promoting a focus on value creation and high-quality development [4][14]. - The guidelines emphasize a core assessment system based on investment returns, aiming to align the interests of fund managers with long-term returns for investors [14]. Group 4 - The active equity fund indices showed positive performance, with the Active Stock Fund Selection Index rising by 1.64% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 15.40% since inception [5]. - The Value Stock Fund Selection Index increased by 1.62%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.96% since inception, while the Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index rose by 1.00%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 9.27% [6][7]. - The Growth Stock Fund Selection Index saw a smaller increase of 0.64%, with a cumulative excess return of 13.45%, while the Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index decreased by 1.73%, but still recorded a cumulative excess return of 21.62% [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. With inventory depletion and some steel mills' maintenance production, market enthusiasm was generally high, the fundamentals warmed up slightly, and raw material support remained strong, resulting in a relatively high bottom for steel prices. Looking ahead, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, inventory depletion continues at a relatively fast pace, and currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and the overseas expectation of interest rate cuts, the macro - environment is favorable, and it is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate widely at low levels [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - As of December 5th, the average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3326 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3511 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 38 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal output was 232.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons (-1.01%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar steel mill inventory was 142.68 million tons, a decrease of 4.05 million tons (-2.76%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar social inventory was 361.13 million tons, a decrease of 23.62 million tons (-6.14%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory was 79.92 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons (2.44%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 320.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.45 million tons (-0.76%) compared to the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference on the macroeconomic landscape [2][4] - It highlights the expected changes in dollar liquidity and the reasons behind the recent strength of the Renminbi [4][5] - The article emphasizes the anticipated shift in global liquidity favoring AH shares and the revaluation of Renminbi assets, alongside the potential for a bull-bear transition in the US stock market [7][8] Group 2 - The analysis includes projections for the agricultural product market, questioning whether a global upcycle is beginning and identifying trading opportunities in grains, oils, cotton, sugar, and live pigs [10] - It estimates that the reallocation of household assets could bring approximately 5.4 to 12.0 trillion yuan of incremental funds to the A-share market by 2030 [12] - The potential incremental funds from insurance capital entering the A-share market are projected to be around 6.0 to 9.6 trillion yuan by 2026 [13]

Core Insights - The event "China Economic 2025 Conference" was held on December 7 in Beijing, focusing on "Finding a Breakthrough Path for China's Economy" [1][4] - Li Xunlei, Chief Economist of Zhongtai International, emphasized that China's top-level design has effectively seized global opportunities, including AI, "Internet Plus," new energy, and new energy vehicles, showcasing the importance of the country's system in achieving stable growth [1][4] Economic Conditions - Li Xunlei noted a significant disparity between perceived and actual economic conditions, attributing this to overlapping real estate cycles and structural issues, which are not unique to China but are global challenges [3][6] - He acknowledged the central economic work meeting's proposed solutions but stressed the importance of implementation, highlighting the long-standing nature of structural issues since 2011 [3][6] Future Outlook - The direction for the future should focus on technology as a leading force to promote high-tech growth, alongside efforts to adjust structures and enhance reforms [3][6] - Li Xunlei expressed confidence in 2026, the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting that it will be crucial for setting a positive tone and expectations, with anticipated policies to stimulate consumption [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced significant gains on December 5, driven by positive market expectations ahead of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares insurance stocks saw substantial increases, with China Pacific Insurance rising by 6.85% and Ping An Insurance by 5.88% [1][2]. - Hong Kong insurance stocks also performed well, with China Taiping rising over 7% and Ping An over 6% [1]. - The overall market showed a recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.08%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.36% [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Analysts believe the fundamentals of the insurance sector remain strong, with a positive trend in both the asset and liability sides [5][6]. - The insurance industry achieved a premium income of 5.48 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, marking an 8% year-on-year increase [5]. - The focus on dividend insurance products is increasing, with a preset interest rate of 1.75%, which lowers the cost of new liabilities [6][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes - The financial regulatory authority has lowered risk factors for various insurance company operations, which could release significant capital for equity investments [7]. - The adjustment in risk factors for long-held stocks could potentially free up 1,086 billion yuan for the stock market if fully allocated [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to continue its positive trajectory, with a shift towards dividend insurance and a favorable market environment anticipated through 2026 [4][6]. - Analysts recommend focusing on companies with high policy value rates and strong new business value growth, as well as those that prioritize high dividend asset allocation [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term stock index is mainly oscillating strongly. With the continuous fermentation of policy - favorable expectations in December, the trading volume of the stock market has increased, the margin trading volume and margin balance have rebounded, and the risk appetite of the stock market has recovered. The policy - favorable expectations will gradually become the main - line logic of the market, but short - term disturbances to the stock index caused by the transmission of the risk appetite of external AI assets and the changes in the trading sentiment of domestic funds should still be noted [3]. - For options, considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index, a bull spread or ratio spread with a mild bullish view can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On December 5, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.93% to 3.145; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.88% to 4.698; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.87% to 4.844; CSI 300 Index rose 0.84% to 4584.54; CSI 1000 Index rose 1.29% to 7342.49; 500ETF (SSE) rose 1.28% to 7.216; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 1.30% to 2.882; GEM ETF rose 1.25% to 3.089; Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.97% to 3.432; SSE 50 Index rose 0.93% to 3002.01; STAR 50ETF remained unchanged at 1.39; E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.15% to 1.35 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options on December 5, 2025, showed different changes compared with the previous trading day, reflecting the changes in market trading sentiment and position structure [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money options of various options in December 2025 are provided, which can help analyze the volatility expectations and historical volatility levels of the underlying assets [7][8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 50ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [9][10][11]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 300ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [20][21][22]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SZSE 300ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [33][34][35]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of CSI 300 Index, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [37][38][39]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of CSI 1000 Index, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [50][51][52]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 500ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [64][65][66]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SZSE 500ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [77][78][79]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of GEM ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [90][91][92]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of Shenzhen 100ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [103][104][105]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 50 Index, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [116][117][118]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of STAR 50ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [130][131][132]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of E Fund STAR 50ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [140][141][142].

Market Overview - A-shares continued to decline on December 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% to 3878.00 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.78% to 12955.25 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12% to 3036.79 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 76.5 billion yuan compared to December 2 [1] - The market saw more declines than gains, with 1443 stocks rising and 3876 stocks falling [1] Sector Performance - The rare metals and coal sectors performed well on December 3, driven by two main factors: expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and increased demand for coal due to colder weather [2] - The rare metals sector is benefiting from the strong demand in technology products, which rely heavily on these materials [2] - The coal sector is attracting investment due to the presence of many dividend-paying stocks, despite the overall poor market performance [2] Technical Analysis - The market has fully filled the upward gap left on December 1, which is generally considered a positive sign indicating a potential bottom in the near term [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed above the 10-day moving average, suggesting that investors are reluctant to see continued declines [2] - The MACD green bars are shortening, and the KDJ line shows an upward trend, indicating limited downside potential for the market [2] Company Insights - Heshun Petroleum, a company involved in retail chain gas stations, logistics, and wholesale, saw its stock hit the daily limit, marking its third limit-up in five days [3] - For the third quarter of 2025, Heshun Petroleum reported earnings per share of 0.13 yuan and a net profit of 21.81 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 49.44% [3] - The recent stock surge is attributed to the announcement of a cash acquisition and capital increase to gain control of at least 34% of Shanghai Kuixin Integrated Circuit, which will be consolidated into Heshun's financial statements [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss. The market anticipates that if the dovish Hassert is elected as the new Fed Chair, it will strengthen the market's dovish bets, but balancing monetary stimulus and inflation poses challenges. Domestically, attention is on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In December, the estimated domestic electrolytic copper production is 1168800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.96% and a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, and the market maintains rigid procurement demand. There are uncertainties about whether the price can continue to rebound as the off - season approaches and there is no sign of a rapid release of demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur; instead, there were new investments and复产 rhythms, leading to a significant correction in the futures market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand is gradually being fulfilled in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the matching of State Grid orders concludes, it is less likely for aluminum prices to reach a new high this year, and the upside space depends on the bulls' response to subsequent macro - dynamics [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The inventory of primary nickel is under pressure, and the production in December is expected to increase month - on - month. Considering the cost support of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110000 yuan/ton, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors' impact on maintaining an optimistic mood is uncertain. Microscopically, the shortage of concentrates supports copper's high valuation, but the lack of rapid demand release in the off - season makes price recovery uncertain [1]. - **Aluminum**: The non - occurrence of expected environmental production restrictions and new investments/复产 have led to a correction in the futures market. Aluminum prices have support, but the possibility of reaching a new high is low [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel - stainless steel industry chain is weak, while the new energy industry chain has tight raw materials. One can consider bottom - fishing with cost support but beware of risks [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 610 yuan/ton, and the inventory in some exchanges changed. For example, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 927 tons [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased slightly, and the total inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 8439 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 225 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price decreased by 3500 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][16]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][24]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [52]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [52]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, tracking the new energy industry chain and providing policy interpretations [53].