Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a positive long-term outlook, with significant interest in sectors such as technology, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, despite some short-term caution from certain institutions [1][3][5]. Market Performance - As of October 21, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3900 points, with the three major A-share indices closing up by 1.36%, 2.06%, and 3.02% respectively [2]. - Year-to-date, the A-share indices have seen substantial increases of 16.84%, 25.57%, and 43.99% [2]. - New account openings in September reached 2.9372 million, a year-on-year increase of 60.73% and a month-on-month increase of 10.83%, marking the second-highest monthly figure of the year [2]. Investment Strategies - Various public funds have released their fourth-quarter strategies, indicating a preference for sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [4][5]. - Institutions such as Ping An Fund and HSBC Jintrust have highlighted opportunities in the AI industry chain, humanoid robots, and solid-state batteries [4][5]. Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, has shown remarkable performance, with indices like the Sci-Tech Innovation Index and the Shanghai Medical Theme Index rising by 44.65% and 13.14% respectively year-to-date [4]. - Funds focusing on technology have reported impressive returns, with some achieving over 175% year-to-date [4]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain stable, with the ten-year government bond yield rising to 1.8552% as of October 21, up nearly 20 basis points since June 30 [7]. - Institutions like China Merchants Fund suggest that the bond market will not enter a prolonged bearish phase, but caution that credit bonds may lack independent trends due to market fluctuations [7][8].

Group 1 - Henan Port and Shipping Group Co., Ltd. was established on October 21, focusing on unified construction, operation, management, service, and external relations in the port and shipping sector [1] - The group has formed 16 subsidiaries, concentrating on six key tasks: high-grade waterway construction, major port expansion, safety capability enhancement, smart port and shipping development, modern shipping, and new energy vessel development [1] - The aim is to create a significant influence in the inland shipping brand and build a first-class domestic port and shipping enterprise [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 159.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 68.5 billion yuan [3] - The operation interest rate remained stable at 1.40%, with 91 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [3] Group 3 - Henan Province plans to issue a total of 37.797 billion yuan in local bonds, including general and special bonds for 2025 [4] - The issuance includes 1.027 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds aimed at replacing existing hidden debts [4] Group 4 - Hunan Province has implemented strict regulations prohibiting village-level organizations from lending collective funds to government platform companies or other entities [6] - The new management measures require comprehensive verification of debts and the establishment of work ledgers to manage and mitigate existing debts [6] Group 5 - Guangzhou's government is advancing the use of special loans to purchase existing residential properties for relocation purposes, with plans to invest 100 billion yuan in urban village and old community renovations by 2025 [8] - The city aims to initiate over 150 new old community renovation projects [8] Group 6 - China Pingmei Shenma Group plans to issue 500 million yuan in short-term financing bonds, with the entire proceeds intended for repaying existing debts [9] - The bond subscription period is from October 22 to October 23, with an interest rate range of 1.8% to 2.2% [9] Group 7 - Zhengzhou Urban Development Group has selected underwriters for its second phase of corporate bonds, with the top underwriter being Huatai United Securities [10] - The underwriting fee rate is set at 0.0566% per year [10] Group 8 - Xuchang Investment Group successfully issued 170 million yuan in medium-term notes at an interest rate of 3% [11] - The funds raised will be used to repay existing debt instruments [11] Group 9 - Puyang State-owned Capital Operation Group completed the issuance of 1 billion yuan in corporate bonds with an interest rate of 2.65% [11] - The funds will be used to repay the principal of previously redeemed corporate bonds [11] Group 10 - The first medium-to-long-term technology innovation corporate bonds on the Beijing Stock Exchange were issued, totaling 500 million yuan with a rate of 2.29% [12] - The issuance set a new low for similar bonds since September [12] Group 11 - The Shanghai Municipal Government approved the establishment of Shanghai Guomao Holdings Co., Ltd. [17] - The registration and compliance procedures will be handled by the municipal state-owned assets supervision and administration commission [17]

Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP growth rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2's 5.2%, but the cumulative growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that achieving the annual target of 5.0% is still feasible [1][2] - Fixed asset investment has been a major drag on growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% in September 2025, marking the first negative growth since 2021 [1][10] Consumption Trends - Retail sales continued to decline in September 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from August [1][24] - The restaurant sector also saw a slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][28] Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value remained stable at 6.2% in September 2025, with significant differentiation between real estate-related and non-real estate-related industries [1][4] - Real estate-related industries such as glass, cement, and crude steel experienced accelerated production contraction, while non-real estate-related industries showed marginal growth [1][11] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1% month-on-month in September, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.3% [1][7] - Core CPI increased to 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by rising gold and service prices [1][7] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment showed a downward trend across real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors, with real estate investment down 13.9% year-on-year in September [1][10] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.3% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][10] Debt Market Conditions - The debt market remains under pressure, with short-term fluctuations driven by U.S.-China trade news, but lacking strong long-term support [1][18] - The short end of the debt market shows higher certainty, while long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are experiencing increased volatility [1][18]

国债期货日报 | 2025-10-21 LPR保持不变，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告；10 月11日，特朗普于社交媒体发文称，从11月1日起将对中国加征100%关税。（2）通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：财政：本次财政数据整体呈现"收入温和修复、支出强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that under the narrative of anti-involution policies, the inflation forecasting framework needs to consider both top-down and bottom-up logic. It predicts a steady upward trend in PPI year-on-year by 2026, while CPI is expected to fluctuate mainly due to various factors, including the impact of government subsidies on non-food items [1]. Group 1: Inflation Predictions - The inflation forecasting framework should integrate both top-down and bottom-up approaches [1] - By 2026, PPI is expected to show a steady upward trend year-on-year [1] - CPI is anticipated to fluctuate primarily due to the impact of government subsidy reductions on non-food items [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The analysis incorporates leading indicators such as deposit activation rates and real estate sales [1] - The overall inflation is expected to moderately rebound throughout the year [1] - The impact on the bond market will largely depend on whether there are incremental demand-side policy measures [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current economy shows significant differentiation and a general weakening trend, increasing the necessity for policy intervention to stabilize growth. For the bond market, the weakening fundamentals and loose liquidity will drive a trend of strengthening. There may be some risk disturbances in the first half of Q4, and interest rates may decline more smoothly in the second half. The situation where interest rates deviated from both fundamentals and liquidity in Q3 needs to be corrected. The short - term escalation of trade conflicts and the decline in risk appetite have promoted the correction process of the bond market. However, the lack of cooperation from allocation - type institutions, potential bond - selling pressure from banks, and the impact of public fund fee reform still exist, and interest rate declines may not be smooth. The dumbbell strategy is preferred, and short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term high - elasticity products offer higher cost - effectiveness [4][22]. Summary Based on Related Content Economic Growth and Outlook - The GDP growth rate slowed down in Q3 2025, with a real growth rate of 4.8% and a nominal growth rate of 3.7%, the lowest since Q4 2022. Although the full - year target of 5% can be achieved, there is still pressure on nominal growth. Considering the high base of Q4 last year (1.5% for real GDP growth on a quarterly - on - quarterly basis), if the quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate in Q4 does not increase significantly, there may be a continued slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate [1][7]. Economic Structural Differentiation - **Supply vs. Demand**: Supply is strong while demand is weak. In September, the industrial added - value growth rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, and the service industry's GDP increased by 5.6% year - on - year, remaining flat compared to the previous month. However, the consumer market and investment continued to weaken. The growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 3.0%, and the single - month fixed - asset investment growth rate slowed to - 8.4% [1][7]. - **External vs. Domestic Demand**: External demand is strong while domestic demand is weak. In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate increasing by 4.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, driving the year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value to increase by 4.2 percentage points to 3.8%, which in turn boosted the industrial added - value growth rate. However, domestic consumption and investment continued to decline [2]. - **New vs. Old Economy**: New economy sectors such as the Internet and new energy are growing rapidly, while old economy sectors such as real estate and infrastructure are continuously weakening. In September, the production index of the information transmission, software, and information technology service industries in the service sector increased by 12.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate increasing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. The added - value of the automotive industry in industrial added - value increased by 16% year - on - year, up 7.6 percentage points from the previous month. In contrast, real estate and infrastructure investment declined by 21.3% and 8.0% respectively in September [2]. Consumption Analysis - The growth rate of residents' disposable income slowed down, which restricted consumption. In Q3, the single - quarter year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 4.52%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita consumption expenditure was 3.4%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among the main sub - sectors of social retail sales, the year - on - year growth rates of many industries such as gold, silver, and jewelry, and sports and entertainment products declined. Although the growth rates of four industries with concentrated subsidies (household appliances, furniture, communication products, and office supplies) still supported the year - on - year performance of social retail sales, the policy effect has diminished [3][12]. Investment Analysis - **Overall Investment**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 8.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, the year - on - year declines in the three major industries further widened [15]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.9%, with the decline increasing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Due to weak downstream and terminal demand, corporate profitability was under pressure, which continued to suppress investment willingness [15]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 8.0%, with the decline increasing significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. The high base from the same period last year deepened the investment decline. Although the easing of the base pressure and the implementation of some fiscal incremental policies (such as the Ministry of Finance's release of 500 billion yuan in remaining quotas on October 17) can mitigate the investment slowdown to some extent, the overall impact is limited, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue to decline year - on - year [15]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In September, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued to widen, reaching - 21.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued to fall to - 13.9%. The year - on - year decline in real estate sales also widened, with the sales area falling by 11.9% year - on - year. Although the declines in new construction and completion narrowed, overall, the downward trend in real estate investment continued, increasing the need for policy support [19].

Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery in export growth driven by low base effects, with significant increases in exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America, while exports to the US still face double-digit declines [4] - Inflation data shows that CPI is supported by seasonal increases in certain food prices and rising industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy, while PPI is mainly affected by input factors, with notable price improvements in key industries [4] - The financial data indicates weak credit performance, but an increase in M1 year-on-year growth suggests improved liquidity for enterprises due to accelerated fiscal spending [5] Group 1: Important Events - Export growth has rebounded due to low base effects, with exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America showing significant year-on-year increases, while exports to the US continue to decline by double digits [4] - CPI is supported by seasonal food price increases and rising prices in industrial consumer goods, while PPI is primarily dragged down by input factors, with key industries like coal, black metals, and photovoltaics showing price improvements [4] Group 2: Financial Data - Credit data remains weak, but M1 year-on-year growth has increased, indicating a rise in enterprise liquidity driven by faster fiscal spending [5] Group 3: Market Conditions - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal exceeded 300 billion, leading to a slight decline in DR007 to just above 1.4%, while interbank certificate of deposit yields have risen due to increased pressure on bank liabilities [6] - A total of 48 bonds were issued during the period, with a total issuance amount of 625.2 billion, and the issuance of special long-term government bonds has completed the annual plan [7] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield showing volatility influenced by US-China trade relations [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - The bond market's sensitivity to fundamentals is currently low, with weak fundamentals indicating lower returns for the real economy, and bonds are unlikely to provide higher overall returns in a low coupon and capital loss environment [9] - Incremental policies are expected to focus on stabilizing growth, promoting consumption, and expanding infrastructure, with potential adjustments in fund redemption fees and the central bank restarting bond purchases [9] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session may have a neutral to bearish impact on the bond market, with the potential for a steepening yield curve if trade relations improve [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. The current bond market has investment value, but the trading sentiment should be "halted, not chased." If there is a policy rate cut, the short - end and long - end yields will show different trends, and redemption disturbances may increase [3][10][19]. - The financial data shows marginal improvement. The abnormal fluctuation of non - bank deposits may be related to the behavior of deposit investment institutions. The growth of residents' medium - and long - term credit is a positive marginal signal [3][11]. - The broad fiscal policy has intensified efforts at the beginning of the fourth quarter, including the launch of new policy - based financial tools and the issuance of local government bonds. This may drive the re - issuance of PSL, and increase the bond issuance pressure from late October to November [3][4][13]. - A window for monetary easing may open. With the intensification of fiscal policy, the total monetary policy may be loosened, and there are suitable time windows for this [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fiscal Policy - **Policy - based Financial Tools**: In late September, a new policy - based financial tool with a total amount of 50 billion yuan was announced. It will be jointly funded by three policy banks and support areas such as "technological innovation, green transformation, consumption upgrade, and foreign trade stability." The historical PSL has been concentratedly issued in three rounds, and this new tool may drive the re - issuance of PSL [13][15]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The Ministry of Finance will allocate 50 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local areas. The current year's local government debt limit and balance have a revitalization space of about 1.2 trillion yuan. This issuance may increase the bond issuance pressure from late October to November [13][17]. 3.2 Financial Data - **Residents' Medium - and Long - term Credit**: In September, residents' medium - and long - term new loans increased year - on - year, which is a marginal positive signal [11]. - **Non - bank Deposits**: Non - bank deposits declined beyond the seasonal norm, with significantly increased volatility. This may be related to the behavior of deposit investment institutions to reduce the scale of non - bank deposits at the end of the quarter, and institutions such as money funds and wealth management products have increased their investment in short - term fixed deposits [11]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - **Policy Synergy**: With the strengthening of the synergy effect of macro - policies, the linkage between fiscal and monetary policies has increased in recent years. After the broad fiscal policy enters the window of strength, the total monetary policy may be loosened [19]. - **Time Window**: Around important meetings in October and around the Politburo meeting are suitable time windows for monetary easing. The adjustment of the equity market and the decline of the non - manufacturing employment sub - index are also favorable factors [19].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market remains in a loose liquidity environment, with fluctuations driven by changes in risk sentiment and equity market volatility, resulting in a slight increase in the 10-year government bond yield to around 1.75% [1][4]. Market Review - From October 13 to October 17, the yields on various maturities of government bonds showed mixed movements, with the 1-year yield increasing by 7.43 basis points (BP) and the 30-year yield decreasing by 3.26 BP [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.4 BP to 1.8246% as of October 17 [3]. Specific Market Movements - On October 14, the 10-year government bond yield rose by 1.8 BP to 1.761% due to improved risk sentiment and strong import-export data [4]. - The bond market experienced fluctuations throughout the week, with the 10-year yield ending the week at 1.7475%, a net increase of 0.45 BP for the week [4][6]. Primary Market Activity - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 450.66 billion yuan, including 4 government bonds totaling 276 billion yuan [8]. - The Ministry of Finance completed the issuance of 400 billion yuan of 20-year special government bonds, marking the completion of this year's issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of such bonds [8]. International Market Context - U.S. Treasury yields experienced a slight decline, with the 10-year yield dropping by 2 BP to 4.00% amid market concerns following the failure of two regional banks [10][12]. Institutional Perspectives - Huachuang Securities suggests that while there are no strong bullish factors driving a significant decline in yields, the market may find a new equilibrium around 1.75% [19]. - According to Fangzheng Securities, the bond market is expected to return to fundamental logic, with potential early issuance of local government refinancing bonds, although the scale is likely to be lower than last year [20].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since October, the main pricing themes in the bond market have been influenced by the fluctuating U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding tariffs, with the U.S. showing a tendency to extend tariff delays[2] - The recent discussions around public fund redemption fees have intensified, with potential adjustments to the proposed regulations, although no official confirmation has been made yet[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may not restart bond purchases if the liquidity remains ample, as indicated by the recent behavior of major banks shifting their focus back to shorter-term bonds[2] Group 2: Government Debt Supply - The Ministry of Finance has approved an additional 500 billion yuan in local government bond quotas for Q4, which is expected to have a limited impact on the market due to historical precedents[3] - The net supply of government bonds for October to December is projected to be 10,200 billion, 10,900 billion, and 4,500 billion yuan respectively, indicating a significant reduction in pressure compared to the previous quarter[3] - Concerns about a substantial decline in fiscal stimulus have been alleviated with the approval of the bond quota, reducing fears of liquidity withdrawal by the central bank[3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Various negative factors have been released continuously, suggesting limited upward movement in yields, with the duration of medium to long-term bond funds decreasing to 3.39 years, close to the low point observed in March[4] - Investors are advised to consider increasing duration positions cautiously, with recommendations to buy during market corrections to mitigate the risk of being trapped in rising markets[4] - For those seeking lower volatility, 10-year government bonds are recommended, while those looking for higher returns may consider 10-year policy bank bonds and 30-year government bonds, which have shown greater yield spread expansion[4]