| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,600.00 | +200.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,664.00 | +33.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 140.00 | -60.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 181,068.00 | -12931.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 9,545.00 | -5230.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 107,125.00 | +4625.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 84,589.00 | +3039.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 38,250.00 | +1150.00↑ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 21,729.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 78,615.00 | -575.00↓ ...

作为一名固收投资经理，置身近几年的债券市场，可谓是有喜有忧。喜的是债券市场依然还是处于偏强的 走势中，债券的配置依然可以博取一定的资本利得收益；忧的是随着低利率环境的到来，债券产品未来配 置的收益显然无法达到投资者预期，投资难度越来越大了。 实际上，回顾2025年上半年乃至近几年债券市场的行情，都可以发现 中长期低利率环境的拐点还未到来 ，即使是今年2至3月因为资金收紧导致的市场回调，4月关税风云带来的利率快速重回下行轨道。因此， 这几年业内经常有"每逢回调都是买入机会"的说法，意思是债市长期牛市的格局不变，但个别时点波动率 会大幅上升。不过，值得关注的是，截至今年6月，市场并没有突破之前的利率低点，其实已经反应了短 期内利率进一步下行空间有限的这一市场共识。 低利率环境下，所有的固收投资经理都需要面对一个重要难题——如何获取超额收益？债券投资的三板 斧，无非就是信用债的挖掘、拉升久期、增加杠杆。回顾这几年的市场行情，2023年主要是"化债"背景下 的信用债、城投债行情，投资策略可以挖掘信用债，增加杠杆；2024年则是 "适度宽松货币政策"背景下 的长久期利率债行情，投资策略可以大幅增加久期，买入30年国债； ...

活期存款： 利率被大幅削减。四大行已统一将活期存款利率降至0.05%，相较于2024年的水平，直接腰 斩50%。这意味着，如果将一万元人民币存入活期账户，一年的利息收入仅为区区5元，创造了历史新 低，也基本宣告了活期存款的"零收益"时代。 中国银行业利率改革再下一城：四大行官宣2025年存款利率调整，低利率时代正式来临 历经2024年三次降息的铺垫，中国银行业再次迎来利率改革的重要时刻。2025年7月1日起，中国工商银 行、中国农业银行、中国银行、中国建设银行四大国有商业银行同步发布公告，宣布正式调整人民币存 款利率。这意味着，在经历了数轮调整后，中国存款市场正式宣告进入"低利率常态化"时代。曾经依赖 存款利息实现财富增值的时代，正在渐行渐远。 利率调整全景扫描：结构性分化日益凸显 本次四大行的利率调整，并非"一刀切"式的全面下调，而是呈现出显著的结构性分化特征，具体表现 为"活期利率触底，中长期利率加速下行"。这种差异化的调整策略，也反映出银行在应对市场变化时的 精细化操作思路。 让我们以一万元人民币为例，更直观地感受此次调整带来的影响： 定期存款： 短期（一年期）利率的调整则相对缓和，但依然呈现出下行趋势 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

当地时间7月9日， 美股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘， 纳斯达克指数上涨0.94%， 创历史新高； 道 琼斯工业指数上涨0.49%，标普500指数上涨0.61%。 当地时间7月9日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会6月17日至18日的会议纪要。 会议纪要显示，美联储 同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普9日上午致信菲律宾、文莱、摩尔多瓦、阿尔及利亚、伊拉克和利比亚6 个国家的领导人，通知他们将对这些国家输美商品征收新关税，新税率 将从8月1日起生效。 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ 美联储会议纪要公布 内部分歧明显 美股大型科技股 多数上涨 ，美国科技七巨头指数上涨1.25%。 据央视新闻报道， 美联储公布的6月会议纪要 显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.5%之间。与会者一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明经济活 动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然略高。 与会者 一致认为，经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 英伟达 ...

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC） 于 2025 年 6 月 17-18 日举行的会议纪要，为我们提供了美 联储内部对当前经济状况、未来展望以及货币政策路径的最新思考。本次会议的核心决策是 维持 联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25% 至 4.5% 不变，并继续推进 资产负债表缩减。然而， 纪要的价值不仅在于决策本身，更在于其揭示了委员会在复杂经济环境下所面临的挑战、内 部的观点分歧以及对关键风险因素的评估。 当前经济状况：韧性与隐忧并存 首先，纪要对当前经济状况的描述呈现出一幅既有韧性又不乏隐忧的画面。工作人员和与会者普遍认 同，尽管受到净出口波动的影响，经济活动在第二季度仍保持了「稳健」的扩张步伐。劳动力市场被描 述为「稳固」，失业率维持在低位，接近委员会对最大就业的估计。这表明，尽管经历了过去几年的紧 缩周期，美国经济并未如一些预期那样显著放缓或陷入衰退。 然而，纪要也捕捉到了一些潜在的疲软信号：企业和家庭信心指标持续低迷（尽管近期略有回升），企 业对启动新的大型投资项目持谨慎态度，制造业活动出现放缓迹象，以及部分低收入家庭面临的压力。 这些细微的观察提醒我们，经济的表层稳健可能掩盖了结构性或部门性的脆弱性。 ...

高盛指出下半年投资者需警惕"金发女孩"背后的三只熊。 据追风交易台消息，7月9日高盛研报揭示，尽管投资者在第二季度迅速重新配置风险资产，市场重新回到"金发女孩"情景定价，但下半年美股牛市面临 三大关键"熊市"风险：增长冲击、利率冲击以及美元疲软。 高盛风险偏好指标(RAI)显示，投资者在4月2日后经历了异常快速的重新风险配置。该指标从4月的-2低点迅速回升至当前的0.5，回到略显乐观的水平。这 一恢复主要得益于美联储更加鸽派的预期、宏观背景的韧性，以及德国财政政策和美国"大漂亮法案"的推动。 然而，这种快速恢复本身就蕴含风险。历史数据显示，风险偏好指标如此大幅上升通常预示着未来6个月股市回报的负偏态分布，特别是在宏观背景可能 显现关税影响、政策和地缘政治风险持续的情况下。 高盛指出，当前风险溢价压缩至年初低点，短期内向上配置风险资产的激励有限，而估值高企和潜在宏观数据转弱为股市带来负面不对称性。分析师建议 战术性中性配置，并通过多元化投资和特定对冲策略应对即将到来的挑战。 第一大风险：增长冲击引发股市回调 报告指出，下半年经济增长可能面临显著的下行压力，尤其是受到关税影响的预期拖累。 股市尾部风险框架显示，股 ...

周三，美国总统特朗普再次批评美联储主席鲍威尔， 称美联储设定的利率至少偏高3个百分 点。他呼吁美联储降息以帮助降低偿还国家债务成本 。这是鲍威尔连续第二天批评鲍威尔。 此前一天，特朗普在内阁会议发表讲话时表示，鲍威尔应立即辞职。他指责称，鲍威尔几个月 来一直在抱怨根本不存在的通胀，拒绝采取正确的行动。 交易员预计，特朗普的批评不会改变联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在7月会议上的决策。据 CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率高达93.3.7%，而降息25个基点的概率 仅为6.7%。 美国副财长：希望鲍威尔卸任美联储理事 周三，美国财政部副部长迈克尔·福尔肯德也对鲍威尔发起攻击。他表示， 自己希望看到鲍威 尔在明年5月其主席任期结束后，从美联储理事会卸任 。 特朗普称，鲍威尔设定的利率(高出的)每个百分点，每年就会给美国造成了3600亿美元的再 融资成本。 "我们的美联储利率至少高了3个百分点，" 特朗普在Truth Social上写道。他表示， 美国当前"没有通胀，公司涌入美国"，并呼吁"降低利率" 。 美国联邦基金利率目标区间目前为4.25%-4.50%。如果美联储按照特朗普呼吁的幅度降息， 利 ...

【导读】韩国央行维持基准利率 2.5% 不变 韩国央行宣布维持基准利率不变后，美元兑韩元汇率变化不大。 中国基金报记者 李智 7 月 10 日，韩国央行维持基准利率 2.5% 不变，符合市场预期。 在此之前，韩国央行在 5 月份降息 25 个基点，以支持经济增长，应对国内需求低迷和美国 全面关税措施带来的不确定性。 荷兰国际集团 高级经济学家 Min Joo Kang 称，预计韩国央行会把下一次降息推迟到 10 月 份，以应对近期国内房价和家庭债务的上涨。 Kang 指出，韩国央行能够谨慎行事，更多聚焦金融稳定。在可预见的未来，预计通胀率将处 于央行 2% 的目标附近。韩国 6 月份的总体消费者通胀同比上升 2.2% ，略高于市场普遍预 期的 2.1% ，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率连续第二个月稳定在 2.0% 。 韩国央行表示， 6 月消费者物价指数（ CPI ）增长主要受基数效应影响。若油价和外汇市场 趋势保持稳定，预计 7 月 CPI 增速将有所放缓。 7 月初，韩国央行行长李昌镛曾透露，韩国央行担忧关税对经济增长而非通胀的影响。自去 年底以来，韩国央行已四次降息以提供支持，但因为金融稳定风 ...

韩国央行行长李昌镛：货币政策委员会的四位委员在未来三个月内有可能考虑降息，两名成员预计未来 三个月内政策利率将保持不变。 ...