Group 1 - Nomura Securities indicates that the US dollar may face significant downward pressure by 2026 due to factors such as portfolio adjustments, rising foreign exchange hedging risks, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - UBS economists note that discussions regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hikes have shifted from "if" to "when," with expectations moving forward significantly due to rising labor costs and domestic demand [2] - Barclays strategists highlight that the current market for US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) does not adequately price in positive inflation risk premiums, suggesting a long position in 10-year breakeven inflation rates as a reasonable medium to long-term strategy [1] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings states that despite rising debt from infrastructure investments, a neutral macro environment, a robust housing market, and a strong labor market will support the stability of Australia's local government finances [3] - Mizuho Securities warns that rising interest rates could significantly increase the debt servicing costs for the UK and Japan, as both countries adjust their debt structures to rely more on short-term borrowing [2] - Nomura analysts suggest that the Bank of Korea may have ended its rate-cutting cycle, with GDP growth expected to reach 2.3% in 2026, driven by improved economic prospects and rising inflation [2]

智通财经APP获悉，周三公布的一项调查显示，欧元区 11 月的商业活动以两年半以来的最快速度增 长，强劲的服务业抵消了制造业的疲软态势。由标普全球编制的11月HCOB综合PMI终值上修为52.8， 创下30个月以来的新高，显示私营部门经济增长势头强劲，高于10月的52.4和预期的52.4，这是其连续 第六个月上涨。PMI 指数高于 50.0 表明经济活动呈增长态势，而低于该水平则意味着经济出现收缩。 汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia表示："欧元区的服务业已显示出明显的复苏迹象。服务业 的强劲表现甚至足以抵消制造业的疲弱，这意味着欧元区 11 月的经济产出增速略高于上月。" 欧元区11月服务业 PMI从 10 月的 53.0 升至 53.6，达到自 2023 年 5 月以来的最高水平，新业务量的增 长速度为 18 个月来最快。制造业则显示出疲软的迹象，工厂生产增长降至九个月以来的最低水平，新 订单略有下降。 大多数接受调查的欧元区国家都实现了经济扩张，其中爱尔兰的表现最为突出，其经济增长率达到了三 年半以来的最高水平。西班牙经济尽管增速有所放缓，但仍保持了强劲的增长态势，而意大利则实现 ...

Core Insights - Ruchir Sharma predicts a potential end to the AI technology bubble, influenced by rising interest rates and persistent inflation pressures, with inflation expected to remain close to 3% next year [1][3] - He outlines three major investment trends for 2026: the possible end of the AI bubble, a renewed preference for quality stocks, and the continuation of international markets outperforming the U.S. market [1][4][6] Group 1: Economic Conditions and Interest Rates - Sharma emphasizes that rising interest rates will trigger skepticism in the market, which has been overly confident in AI investments [3] - Historical patterns indicate that every market bubble has been burst by rising interest rates, suggesting that current inflation trends could lead to such an outcome [3] - The Federal Reserve's inability to meet the 2% inflation target for five consecutive years raises concerns about future monetary policy adjustments [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies for 2026 - The first recommendation is to "buy quality stocks," characterized by high return on equity (ROE) and low leverage, which have underperformed recently, presenting a buying opportunity [5] - The second trend is the potential end of the AI bubble, which is closely tied to interest rate movements, although the exact timing remains uncertain [6] - Lastly, the trend of international markets outperforming the U.S. market is expected to continue, marking the beginning of a multi-year cycle that offers diversification and growth opportunities outside the U.S. [6]

钛媒体App 12月2日消息，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，不对经济前景或利率发表评论。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of using rational analysis to navigate market fluctuations while aligning with the prevailing market trends, rather than attempting to predict market tops or bottoms [1]. Group 1: Macro Economic Indicators - The November PMI data met expectations, with the official manufacturing PMI reported at 49.2, indicating a stable economic outlook [5]. - The central bank reportedly purchased 200 billion yuan in bonds in November, contributing to a mixed performance in the stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3900 points [5]. - The central bank conducted a 107.6 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan due to 338.7 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The weighted rates for various repo codes showed slight decreases, with R001 at 1.37% (down 5 basis points) and R007 at 1.49% (down 3 basis points) [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.83%, with the lowest rate dropping to 1.822% before slightly recovering to 1.8275% [5]. - The interest rates for government bonds varied, with the 1-year bond at 1.40% and the 10-year bond at 1.8275%, reflecting a range of changes across different maturities [7].

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管理委员会成员约阿希姆·纳格尔暗示，他对欧洲央行当前的货币政策设 置感到满意。 然而，一些央行官员担心经济活动和消费者价格增长存在下行风险。将于12月发布的新预测可能显示 2026年和2027年通胀将低于2%，或将促使各方呼吁在12月降息，进一步宽松政策或纳入明年议程。 "新预测将包含对2028年的初步展望，"被视为管理委员会中较为鹰派成员之一的纳格尔表示，"基于这 些预测，我们将能够判断是否仍有望实现我们的中期通胀目标。" 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德上周表示，在借贷成本处于当前适当水平的情况下，欧洲央行处于有 利位置。根据一项调查，周二公布的数据预计将显示，11月份欧元区20国的通胀率将保持在2.1%。 "我们的预测也表明，利率目前处于一个合适的位置，"这位德国央行行长周一发表演讲时表示，呼应了 近几个月欧洲央行官员的标准说法。"欧元体系的货币政策目前基本处于中性状态。" 欧洲央行官员正在筹备本月举行的年内最后一次会议，投资者和经济学家普遍预期央行将连续第四次维 持利率不变。随着通胀率徘徊在2%左右，且经济对美国加征关税表现出韧性，大多数政策制定者对当 前基本中性的政策设置感 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals futures and spot prices, and container shipping industry indices. These data provide insights into market trends and price movements of different financial instruments. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: On December 1, 2025, the IF spot - futures spread was -20.86, the IC spot - futures spread was -57.35, and the IM spot - futures spread was 73.41. There were also various inter - period spreads and cross - product ratios presented, such as the IC/IF ratio at 1.5478 [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the IRR of some bonds had certain changes. For example, the TF basis was 1.5719, the T basis was 1.4880, and the TL basis was 1.8420. There were also inter - period spreads and cross - product spreads among different bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metals Futures and Spot - **Price Changes**: On November 28, 2025, domestic futures prices of precious metals like AU2602 increased by 0.71% to 953.92 yuan/gram, AG2602 rose by 1.61% to 12727 yuan/kilogram. In the foreign market, COMEX gold increased by 1.44% to 4256.40 dollars/ounce. There were also data on spot prices, basis, and price ratios [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Index Movements**: As of November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% to 1639.37 points, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54% to 1107.85 points. There were also data on shipping rates, futures prices, and fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply and port - related indicators [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints - 11 - month bond market was in a volatile pattern without strong policy and fundamental drivers, and 12 - month important meetings and key economic data will be key variables for market direction [2][9] - 12 - month stock market's impact on the bond market may weaken due to recent weak equity market performance and year - end institutional factors [2][9] - 12 - month interest rates are likely to decline, but the continuation of the calendar effect needs further information [2][10] - Market bulls still have concerns, and the year - end allocation market awaits the implementation of redemption rules [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 12 - month Bond Market Outlook - After 10 - month trading, the year - end bond market tends to be conservative. In November, the bond market was volatile, and future direction depends on 12 - month meetings and data [9] - The impact of the stock market on the bond market in December may weaken, and interest rates are likely to fall [2][9][10] - Market participants' concerns remain, and the start of the year - end allocation market depends on redemption rules [3][13] 11 - month Bond Market Review 2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - Throughout November, the 10Y treasury bond rate had different trends each week, influenced by various factors such as policies, data, and stock market performance [24][25] 2.2 Funding Situation - The central bank net - injected 438 billion yuan. In November, the funding situation was generally balanced, with early convergence and month - end easing [26] 2.3 Secondary Market Performance - In November, bond yields fluctuated upwards. Most key - term treasury bond rates increased, and most term spreads widened [34] 2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In November, bond fund durations slightly decreased, and the 50Y - 30Y treasury bond spread significantly widened. Bank - to - bank leverage decreased, while exchange leverage increased [42] 2.5 Bond Supply - In November, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased, while the net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. The issuance scale of different types of bonds had various changes [52][53][57] Economic Data - In October, the growth rate of industrial enterprise profits slowed down. Since November, real - estate transactions have been weak year - on - year, while port throughput has been strong [63] Overseas Bond Market - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a decline in US consumer spending, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased. US bonds rose, while bond markets in China, Japan, and South Korea fell [73][74] Major Asset Classes - In November, the Shanghai Gold Index strengthened, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the South China Pig Index weakened. The performance ranking of major asset classes was Shanghai Gold > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai Copper > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Convertible bonds > Crude oil > CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Pig [79] Policy Summary - Multiple policies were introduced in November, covering areas such as real - estate investment trusts, medical insurance, science - finance cooperation, consumption support, and capital market reform. Future impacts of these policies need to be monitored [82][83][84]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on November 28, with government bond futures exhibiting mixed performance, and the short-term funding rates mostly rising, indicating a cautious outlook for bond yields in the near term [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed with mixed results: the 30-year contract rose by 0.05% to 114.49, the 10-year contract increased by 0.03% to 107.94, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02% respectively [2]. - The interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 30-year special government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 2.1865%, and the 10-year government bond yield down by 1.25 basis points to 1.8315% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 3,013 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down by 1.3 basis points to 1.301%, while the 7-day and 14-day rates rose by 1.2 and 2.1 basis points respectively [5]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that city commercial banks are actively cooperating with policies to manage hidden debts through loans and bond swaps, which may impact their asset-liability structure and profitability [6]. - Huachuang Securities highlighted a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, with a lack of policy catalysts for yield declines, and noted that trading funds have not seen significant positive factors leading to a year-end rush [6]. Economic Context - Shenwan Futures reported that deposits continue to flow into higher-yielding non-bank sectors, while industrial production and consumption growth rates are slowing, primarily due to real estate sector challenges [7]. - The anticipation of policy announcements around year-end is expected to enhance market risk appetite, although recent regulations on fund sales may disrupt the bond market [7].

CHEVALIER INT'L(00025)发布截至2025年9月30日止6个月业绩，该集团期内取得收入39.32亿港元，同 比减少2.49%;公司股东应占溢利2.31亿港元，同比增加187.17%;每股基本盈利0.77港元。 展望2025财政年度下半年及2026年财政年度，全球经济环境仍充满挑战。本集团预期利率将逐步提振投 资和消费者信心，尤其是在对利率敏感的行业。然而，不确定性依然存在，包括美国经济前景、中国内 地政策发展以及持续的地缘政治风险。 ...