C o o k 获 准 留 任 但 投 票 立 场 成 谜 来源 | 华尔街大事件 在美联储本周关键利率决议前夕，两项人事变动为高度紧张的市场增添了戏剧性。 据央视报道，当地时间9月15日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院驳回了美国司法部的紧急申请，维持了下级法院暂时阻止特朗普撤换Lisa Cook的禁令。 这意味着Cook将能够参加本周的美联储会议。 几乎在同一时间，据央视新闻，参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势，通过了对Stephen Miran出任美联储理事会成员的提名。在共和党的快速推动 下，Miran预计将于周二上午履新，可能也正好赶上本周的美联储会议。 白宫支持的候选人成功入主美联储理事会，而一位面临总统解雇压力的现任理事则通过法庭裁决保住了投票权，这使得一场关于央行独立性的 政治角力，直接延伸到了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的决策桌上，让本已备受关注的利率决议更添变数。 虽然市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，但两位立场截然不同的投票委员的加入，让最终结果变得难以预测。 甚至有分析认为，FOMC可能出现罕见的"四方混战"局面，对市场预期构成重大挑战。 Cook的留任为此次会议增添了最大的不确定性。上 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee (INR) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching a two-week high of approximately 87.90, driven by positive statements from Indian Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump regarding bilateral relations and the Ukraine situation [1] - The positive sentiment was bolstered by a recent meeting between US and Indian trade representatives in New Delhi, indicating a potential thaw in trade relations that had previously been strained due to tariff increases on Indian oil imports from Russia [1] - Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) have significantly reduced their stock sell-off in India, with total sales amounting to 10,204.54 billion INR since September, compared to much higher figures of 47,666.68 billion INR and 46,902.92 billion INR in July and August respectively [1] Group 2 - The overall weakness of the US Dollar has also contributed to the strengthening of the Rupee, with the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping to a two-month low of 96.70, as market expectations lean towards a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - There is a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with some analysts predicting three rate cuts by 2025 [3] - The USD/INR exchange rate has shown signs of uncertainty, with support around 87.65 and resistance at 88.65, indicating a mixed short-term trend [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, matching July's figure and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, leading to a short-term drop in spot gold prices below $3,690 before recovering and briefly surpassing $3,700 [2] - Geopolitical tensions are rising as Russia warns NATO against shooting down its drones over Ukraine, which could escalate into a state of war [2] - Analysts believe gold remains resilient against short-term negative data, maintaining a high position while awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend with support at $3,680 and resistance at $3,720 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.42 million barrels for the week ending September 12, compared to an increase of 1.25 million barrels previously, indicating strong recent consumption [4] - The geopolitical situation is tense, with reports of Russian military actions against Ukrainian forces, which may support rising oil prices [4][5] - The combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost domestic investment and increase oil consumption [5] - Technical analysis shows oil prices consolidating in the $61.50 to $65.50 range, with support at $64.10 and resistance at $65.50 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and U.S. Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index experienced a decline, with a bearish daily close, while the hourly trend shows a slowdown in upward momentum [7] - The U.S. Dollar Index fell below the 97 mark, maintaining a downward trend, with support at 96.30 and potential further declines following the interest rate decision [8]

Group 1 - The current gold market is influenced by geopolitical factors and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, leading to a bullish trend in gold prices, with significant increases observed on Monday and Tuesday [2][4] - Gold prices have recently surpassed the 3700 mark for the first time, indicating a strong upward trend, although the market is expected to experience fluctuations and pullbacks, providing opportunities for buying [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, which is expected to have a substantial impact on both gold and silver markets, necessitating careful risk management [2][4] Group 2 - The trading strategy for the Asian and European sessions is to focus on buying during pullbacks, with key support levels identified at 3685 and 3675, while aiming for targets around 3710 and potentially 3750 [4][5] - The market sentiment suggests that after the Federal Reserve's decision, there may be a significant downward adjustment in gold prices, with a critical support level at 3620 to watch for potential changes in the current bullish trend [5][6] - In the silver market, a bullish outlook is maintained, with a focus on buying near the 42 support level, while caution is advised against chasing prices higher due to potential volatility [6][7] Group 3 - The oil market has shown positive momentum, with recent price increases reaching around 64.5, and further upward potential is anticipated, with key resistance levels at 66 [7] - Domestic fuel prices have also risen, with targets set at 2850 and 3000, indicating a continued bullish trend, although caution against chasing prices is advised [7]

Core Viewpoint - A significant global monetary policy shift is anticipated as multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, prepare to announce interest rate decisions within a short timeframe, impacting global capital flows and financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is particularly noteworthy due to recent personnel changes, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a board member, which may influence the decision-making process [2]. - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points, with a possibility of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, depending on the voting inclinations of newly confirmed members [2][3]. - Analysts predict a more dovish outlook in the Fed's dot plot, with guidance suggesting 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Other Central Banks' Actions - The Bank of Canada is expected to follow the Fed's lead and implement a rate cut due to concerns over economic growth [3]. - The Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its current rate at 4%, following a previous cut of 25 basis points, which was narrowly approved [3]. - The Bank of Japan is likely to hold its rates steady but is under pressure to signal future rate hikes due to ongoing inflation concerns [3]. Group 3: Global Rate Cuts - Several countries have already initiated rate cuts ahead of the Fed, including Peru, which reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% due to easing inflation pressures [4]. - Turkey's central bank cut its rate by 250 basis points to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations, while Russia lowered its rate by 100 basis points to 17% [4]. - These actions indicate a broader trend of monetary easing globally, potentially influenced by the Fed's decisions [4]. Group 4: Implications for Emerging Markets - The Fed's potential rate cuts may create room for adjustments in monetary policy among emerging market central banks, although the specific actions will depend on each country's economic fundamentals [5]. - Emerging markets face unique challenges, including currency depreciation pressures and capital outflow risks, which will influence their policy responses to the Fed's actions [5].

美联储：斯蒂芬·米兰在联邦公开市场委员会会议前宣誓就任美联储理事。🗒️美联储官网同时更新了成员名单，显示米兰在列。 https://t.co/h2dYeHLeJE外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普提名的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）以48比47的参议院投票票数，获批进入美联储理事会，即将与其他11名票委共同参与美联储本周的利率决议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent conflict between President Trump and the judiciary regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting the implications for monetary policy and institutional independence in the U.S. [1][12] Group 1: Court Ruling - The Washington Federal Appeals Court issued an emergency ruling on September 15, preventing Trump from dismissing Lisa Cook, allowing her to participate in the upcoming interest rate vote [3]. - The court emphasized that any dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor requires substantial evidence and cannot be arbitrary [4]. Group 2: Timing and Strategy - Trump's decision to attempt to remove Cook right before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting suggests a strategic move to influence interest rate decisions [6]. - Cook has aligned with Fed Chair Jerome Powell in opposing immediate rate cuts, making her a target for Trump, who seeks to alter the Fed's decision-making dynamics [6]. Group 3: Institutional Integrity - Cook's position as the first Black female governor of the Federal Reserve represents a significant voice for minority groups and highlights issues such as labor market disparities and inflation [8]. - The incident is viewed as a test of the limits of presidential power over independent institutions, with the court's ruling reinforcing the principle of institutional independence [8][12]. Group 4: Future Implications - The outcome of this situation could either stabilize market perceptions of the Federal Reserve or lead to prolonged uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy if the Supreme Court intervenes [10]. - The article suggests that the ongoing challenges to institutional integrity will continue to provoke discussions about the boundaries of presidential authority and the independence of regulatory bodies [12][13].

Group 1 - The U.S. August retail sales month-on-month rate is expected to be 0.3%, down from the previous value of 0.5% [1] - The U.S. August industrial production month-on-month rate is anticipated to be 0%, an improvement from the previous value of -0.1% [2] - The U.S. crude oil inventory change for the week ending September 12 is expected to show an increase from the previous value of 3.939 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the policy rate range to 4%–4.25% [4] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and keep the 10-year government bond yield target unchanged [5]

Group 1: Market and Liquidity - Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -0.60 bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.38 bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.37 with a 28.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.46 with a 4.50 bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.40 with a 0.07 bp change, 5 - year at 1.61 with a -1.32 bp change [4] - 10 - year treasury closed at 1.86 with a -1.01 bp change, 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00 bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.2645 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.0684 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Monday [5] Group 2: Market and Liquidity - Stock Indexes - CSI 300 closed at 4522 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4523 with a -0.9% change [6] - SSE 50 closed at 2969 with a -0.49% change, IH current month at 2969 with a -0.7% change [6] - CSI 500 closed at 7148 with a 0.35% change, IC current month at 7140 with a 0.2% change [6] - CSI 1000 closed at 7423 with a 0.31% change, IM current month at 7393 with a 0.1% change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 1.38% to 4522, SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5, CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7, and CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [6] - Last week, in the Shenwan primary industry index, electronics (6.1%), real estate (6%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (4.8%), media (4.3%), and non - ferrous metals (3.8%) led the gains, while only comprehensive (-1.4%), banking (-0.7%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.4%), and social services (-0.3%) declined [6] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 2.2215 trillion yuan, 1.9424 trillion yuan, 1.8096 trillion yuan, 2.1904 trillion yuan, and 2.2681 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 247.39 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Market and Liquidity - Futures Volume and Open Interest - IF trading volume was 148,623 with a -12.4% change, and open interest was 278,489 with a -1.3% change [6] - IH trading volume was 65,282 with a -8.0% change, and open interest was 100,041 with a -4.2% change [6] - IC trading volume was 175,859 with a -10.2% change, and open interest was 267,758 with a 0.5% change [6] - IM trading volume was 240,836 with a -24.3% change, and open interest was 372,165 with a -4.2% change [6] Group 4: Market and Liquidity - Futures Basis - IF basis for current month was -1.94%, next month was 1.22%, current quarter was 2.10%, and next quarter was 1.90% [8] - IH basis for current month was -0.15%, next month was -0.17%, current quarter was -0.11%, and next quarter was -0.23% [8] - IC basis for current month was 7.91%, next month was 9.06%, current quarter was 8.45%, and next quarter was 8.40% [8] - IM basis for current month was 29.59%, next month was 14.44%, current quarter was 12.77%, and next quarter was 11.82% [8] Group 5: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In August, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.8% [7] - Government bond net financing decreased by 251.9 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate short - term loans increased by 260 billion yuan year - on - year [7] - Resident short - term loans only increased by 1.05 billion yuan, and M1 year - on - year growth rate rose slightly to 6% [7] - In the coming week, there will be many domestic and international macro events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and China - US leaders will have talks [7] - Last week, the stock index rose further, with CSI 500 leading the rise in index futures. Market trading volume decreased last week [7] - The strategy is to control risks in index futures positions and mainly adjust for long positions next week [7]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the Shanghai nickel industry dated September 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel was 122,580 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread was -240 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3] - The LME 3 - month nickel price was 1,5380 dollars/ton, up 160 dollars; the main contract position volume of Shanghai nickel was 70,610 hands, down 2,030 hands [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel was -28,268 hands, up 1,774 hands; the LME nickel inventory was 224,484 tons, down 600 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, up 514 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrant total was 7,974 tons, down 600 tons [3] - The warrant quantity for Shanghai nickel was 24,959 tons, up 1,430 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate from Yangtze River Co., Ltd. was 123,100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 420 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) spread was -171.2 dollars/ton, up 2.52 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,386.16 million tons, up 77.93 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore was 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output was 2.2 million metal tons, down 0.02 million metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 173.79 million tons, down 1.34 million tons [3] Group 3: Industry News - In August 2025, China's new RMB loans were 59 billion yuan, 31 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8% [3] - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, and in January, April and July 2026. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the FOMC this week is 93.4% [3] Group 4: Core Views - On the macro - front, China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, new loans were 59 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low. Global financial markets will face a "central bank super - week" [3] - On the fundamental side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts release, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. The premium of domestic mines is stable. Philippine nickel ore supply is rising, but domestic port inventories are falling, with raw materials in a tight situation [3] - In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises in July remained stable, the output of some smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned, driving a slight increase in overall refined nickel output [3] - On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and they have increased production. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers purchase on dips, the spot premium is stable, domestic inventories increase, and overseas LME inventories accumulate [3] - Technically, the position increases and the price rebounds, with wide - range oscillations. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 125,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [3]