2025 年 8 月 25 日 鲍威尔鸽派提振 铝价震荡偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 投资咨询号：Z00210404 ⚫ 上周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转 鸽，市场开始演绎降息交易，美元走弱，同时欧美制 造业PMI皆有回暖，需求预期略有修复。基本面，电 解铝产能仍然主要为产能置换，整体开工变化不大。 消费端即将进入旺季下游补库意愿上升，同时周初 铝价一度回落，下游接货积极性抬升。周内铝锭社会 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the index rising nearly 3.5% on August 25, and the largest ETF tracking this index seeing a gain of over 4% [1] - Major stocks within the Hang Seng Technology Index, such as NIO, ASMPT, Alibaba, Baidu, NetEase, Horizon Robotics, and Lenovo, have shown substantial increases, with NIO surging over 13% [1] - Recent institutional analysis suggests that the Hang Seng Technology Index may have a chance for a rebound, especially as the Shanghai Composite Index reaches a ten-year high and the ChiNext Index breaks recent highs [1] Group 2 - The inflow of funds into the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) has been notable, with approximately 5.498 billion yuan net inflow over the past 20 trading days, bringing the total size to a record high of 37 billion yuan [1] - Cross-border ETFs have seen over 80 billion yuan in net inflows in the past month, with the technology, financial, and innovative pharmaceutical sectors in Hong Kong being the main beneficiaries [1] - The recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised expectations for a rate cut in September, which is likely to enhance liquidity and bullish sentiment in the Hong Kong market [1][2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently viewed as being relatively undervalued, making it more sensitive to changes in the US-China interest rate differential, thus benefiting from a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment [2] - The index is characterized by high elasticity and growth potential, suggesting that improvements in market conditions could lead to stronger upward momentum [2] - Investors without access to the Hong Kong Stock Connect can consider the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) as a means to invest in core Chinese AI assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities indicates that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank summit aligns with previous expectations, emphasizing the downside risks in the labor market and reiterating the view from the July meeting that "tariff inflation is transitory," paving the way for a rate cut in September [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The Fed has abandoned the average inflation targeting framework, returning to a flexible inflation targeting approach, with revised language emphasizing attention to "two-sided" employment market risks [1] Market Implications - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the main theme of "rate cut trading" in the U.S. stock market has been clarified, with a "catch-up" trading logic expected to dominate the upcoming market [1] - Similar to the "rate cut trading" in July 2024, sectors sensitive to interest rates such as Russell 2000, S&P 500 Real Estate, and Nasdaq Biotechnology may experience upward trends again [1] Currency and Bond Market - There remains a gap between market expectations for two rate cuts this year and the company's forecast of three [1] - It is anticipated that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index will have slight downward space [1] Global Equity Market - Powell's dovish comments and a weaker dollar are expected to boost global equity market risk appetite [1] Gold Market - Rate cut expectations are likely to support gold prices, although caution is advised regarding potential negative impacts from a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1]

Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference shifted the policy tone to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the July FOMC meeting [1][2] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September rose from 72% to 94% following Powell's remarks, indicating a significant market reaction [1][4] - The baseline scenario anticipates the unemployment rate rising to the 4.4-4.5% range, with expectations of two rate cuts within the year [1][4] Group 2 - Powell described the employment situation as a "fragile balance" with both supply and demand weakening, indicating an upward risk to employment downturns [2] - Inflation driven by tariffs is seen as clear but potentially "one-off," necessitating close monitoring of tariff impacts in the short term [2] - The Federal Reserve aims to balance the risks of stagflation, with a cautious approach to policy adjustments as the economic outlook evolves [2] Group 3 - The long-term monetary policy framework aims for a 2% inflation target alongside broad maximum employment goals, reflecting a shift from previous strategies [3] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the dual mandate of inflation and employment [3] Group 4 - The anticipated rate cuts for 2026 have increased, with expectations of 5.3 cuts by the end of that year, reflecting a more dovish outlook [4] - The key to the September rate cut's realization lies in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data, rather than solely on Powell's statements [4] - The market's optimism regarding rate cuts in 2026 may be overly optimistic, with potential risks related to rising long-term Treasury yields and a reversal in the dollar's strength [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, aligning with previous expectations [1] - The "rate cut trade" in the U.S. stock market is anticipated to become clearer, with a focus on "catch-up" trading logic dominating the market [1] - Similar to the "rate cut trade" in July 2024, sectors sensitive to interest rates such as Russell 2000, S&P 500 Real Estate, and Nasdaq Biotechnology are expected to experience upward trends [1] Group 2 - The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are still somewhat distant from the company's views, suggesting a potential for slight declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index [1] - Powell's dovish remarks and a weaker dollar are expected to boost global equity market risk appetite [1] - The anticipated rate cuts are likely to support gold prices, although there is a caution regarding potential negative impacts from a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank summit aligns with previous expectations, emphasizing the downside risks in the labor market and reiterating the view from the July meeting that "tariff inflation is transitory," paving the way for rate cuts in September [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The Fed has abandoned the average inflation targeting framework, returning to a flexible inflation targeting approach, and has modified its language to emphasize attention to "dual" labor market risks [1] Market Implications - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the main theme of "rate cut trades" in the U.S. stock market has been clarified, with a "catch-up" trading logic expected to dominate the upcoming market [1] - Similar to the "rate cut trades" in July 2024, sectors sensitive to interest rates such as Russell 2000, S&P 500 Real Estate, and Nasdaq Biotechnology may experience upward trends again [1] Currency and Bond Market - There remains a gap between market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed and the company's forecast of three cuts, suggesting slight downward potential for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index [1] Global Equity Market - Powell's dovish comments and a weaker U.S. dollar are expected to boost risk appetite in global equity markets [1] Gold Market - The expectation of rate cuts is likely to support gold prices, although caution is advised regarding potential negative impacts from a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1]

Fixed Income - Economic pressure is expected to rise in the second half of the year, with a focus on the bond market as a favorable investment opportunity. The current economic recovery is influenced by price adjustments, and the "anti-involution" policy has become a priority. The overall CPI and PPI improvements were below expectations in July, indicating a potential shift in economic growth momentum and income distribution structure [2][7][10] - The 10Y government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.8% in the second half of the year, with current yields around 1.75%, presenting a favorable price-performance ratio. The report suggests a bullish outlook on long-duration municipal and capital bonds, as well as specific bank perpetual bonds [10][14] Nutritional Functional Food Industry - The nutritional functional food market in China is rapidly developing, with a market size projected to grow from CNY 233.1 billion in 2024 to CNY 349.9 billion by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5%. The overall market for nutritional health foods is expected to reach CNY 522.3 billion in 2024 and CNY 720.3 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 6.6% [16][17] - Key players in the nutritional functional food sector include Kangbiter (brand operator), Wuxi Jinghai (raw material supplier), and Hengmei Health (contract manufacturer), indicating a well-structured industry chain [17] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical index increased by 3.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.7%. Companies such as Sino Medical, Innovation Medical, and Guangsheng Tang saw significant stock price increases, indicating a broadening market trend in the pharmaceutical sector [26][27] - The report highlights the potential of tri-antibody therapies in cancer immunotherapy, with specific attention on Shanghai Yizhong's YXC-001 and other combinations, suggesting a promising future for these treatments [28][29] Metals and New Materials - The rare earth market is experiencing price increases, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxides, driven by improved export volumes. The price of tungsten concentrate has also surpassed CNY 200,000 per ton due to supply constraints and rising demand [21][22] - The report notes that the controlled nuclear fusion industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with significant opportunities for upstream materials suppliers [24] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The demand for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) is expected to rise, particularly in data center applications, presenting opportunities for domestic companies to expand internationally. The report emphasizes the importance of companies that supply upstream equipment and materials for SOFC [20][21] - Shaan Energy's new project in Guangdong aims to integrate power generation and data center operations, which is expected to enhance the company's growth prospects in the context of increasing green energy demand [5][6]

Economic Indicators - The US July PPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.2%[3] - The CME model indicates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, despite the recent PPI data[3] Market Reactions - The US-Russia talks have not reached a significant agreement, with limited market impact expected; historical context suggests that a ceasefire typically requires one side to have a decisive advantage[3] - Oil prices (both WTI and Brent) experienced a decline following the talks, reflecting the market's muted response[3] Investment Strategies - Focus on the interest rate cut trade, with potential for further pricing in as the Fed's internal divisions remain[3] - Consider small-cap growth stocks like XBI under the interest rate cut theme, and stocks with improved fundamentals such as UnitedHealth, which was heavily bought by Berkshire Hathaway in Q2[3] Risks - Potential for overseas inflation to rebound beyond expectations, which could lead to tighter liquidity from central banks and impact equity market valuations[3] - Global economic slowdown risks, particularly if the US economy shows signs of weakening, could negatively affect market conditions[3] - Escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like the Middle East or Ukraine, could heighten market volatility and risk aversion[3]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.83% to 3,696 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing 1.6%, reaching a new high for the year[18] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both fell by 0.98%, primarily dragged down by technology and banking stocks[13] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.08% to 44,946 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.29% and 0.40%, respectively[11] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in July increased by 0.5%, with June's growth revised up to 0.9%[30] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index unexpectedly dropped from 62 to 58.6, indicating concerns over inflation[30] - China's July retail sales growth slowed, influenced by extreme weather and a decline in manufacturing and real estate investment[6] Commodity and Forex Market - International oil prices fell over 1%, with NYMEX crude oil down 1.8% to $62.8 per barrel[28] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.4%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 9.8%[27] - The euro appreciated against the dollar, rising 0.5% to 1.170, with a year-to-date increase of 13.0%[27] Fixed Income Market - Long-term European government bonds saw significant declines, with Germany's 30-year bond yield rising 8 basis points to 3.35%, the highest since 2011[30] - U.S. Treasury yields also increased, with the 10-year yield up 3 basis points to 4.32%[30] - The market anticipates a 83% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September[30]

中信证券研报表示，8月12日，美国7月CPI发布后美股发生的风格切换让市场回想起2024年7月11日美 国2024年6月CPI发布后美股出现的"降息交易"。不过，8月14日，美国7月PPI大超预期，给原本已经启 动的"降息交易"泼了一盆冷水，市场陷入了纠结。我们认为若鲍威尔在下周五在Jackson Hole全球央行 年会上态度鸽派、"官宣"9月降息，美股市场"降息交易"的主线或能重新明确，届时2024年7月"降息交 易"中对利率敏感的罗素2000、标普500房地产和纳指生物技术上涨的行情或将再度上演。 ...