关税影响好转 有色金属或继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 英美达成贸易协议，中美亦开始正式接触谈判，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。美联储暂停降息，国内提出"一揽子金融政策"，均基本符合市场预 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位持续横盘 | 期。特朗普关税政策反反复复，关税影响总体上相对好转，但前期给全球经济带来的不利影响仍然存在，从4月进出口数据来看对中国影响有限， | | | 铜 | | 但后续不良影响仍可能会逐步显现。基本面上，国内库存降至低位，近一个月国内库存下降明显，带动了现货升水走高和盘面Back结构扩大。TC | 区间交易 | | | 77000-79000 | 持续探底跌破-42美元，虽受 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has led to an increase in the US dollar index, putting pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, both supply and demand are weak, and the sustainability of downstream demand is questionable. The market has been mainly trading on macro - information recently. The implementation of domestic stimulus policies remains to be seen, and copper prices are currently fluctuating slightly and mainly in a range - bound pattern [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: Since January this year, the Fed has maintained the interest rate decision unchanged for the third consecutive time. Powell stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates hastily. Trump's call for a rate cut does not affect the Fed's work. This news has led to a rebound in the US dollar index and put pressure on copper prices [1]. - **Supply Side**: In May, multiple domestic smelters have maintenance plans, with an estimated impact on electrolytic copper production of 21,000 tons. There are still concentrated maintenance plans from July to September. The estimated domestic refined copper production in May is 1.023 million tons (a 1.2% month - on - month increase). TC/RC fees continue to be negative and the negative value is expanding. The high - running sulfuric acid price has made up for some losses of smelters, but smelter inventories are tightening [1]. - **Demand Side**: After the holiday, demand recovery has been slow. The downstream operating rate has increased. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase. Orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. Spot copper prices are strong. In the context of significant inventory reduction, the market has strong expectations for demand. However, in April, China's manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China General Services PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points from March, reaching the lowest level in seven months in the expansion range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: Intraday, Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, with intraday fluctuations under pressure. It closed at 77,620 yuan per ton. The number of long positions of the top twenty was 118,861 lots, an increase of 2,491 lots; the number of short positions was 111,865 lots, an increase of 1,373 lots [4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 210 yuan per ton, and in South China it was 195 yuan per ton. On May 7, 2025, the LME official price was $9,462 per ton, and the spot premium was $24 per ton [4]. Supply - Side Information As of April 25, the latest data showed that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.04 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 19,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. As of April 28, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95,800 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 194,300 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 156,600 short tons, an increase of 1,991 short tons from the previous period [9].

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强 耿佩璇 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作 者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月30日，国家统计局公布4月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值50.5%；非制造业PMI为50.4%、 前值50.8%。 核心观点：4月新出口订单已明显下滑，但内需如基建与消费品行业PMI仍维持韧性。 4月PMI整体与分项读数均有走弱，但相对来看新订单指数更弱，生产仍维持较高水平。 4月制造业PMI 边际下行1.5pct至49%；剔除供应商配货指数的PMI也回落1.5pct。结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落，边 际分别下行2.8、2.6pct。由于PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看， 新订单指数下行至49.2%，而生产指数仍在荣枯线附近（49.8%），反映本月需求偏弱，生产景气水平相 对较高。 需求内部呈现分化特征，其中新出口订单指数降幅较大，但内需订单更具韧性。 生产景气相对较高的情 况下，4月外贸货运量同比上行0.7pct至1.3%，主因前期订单在"抢出口 ...

4月23日，标普全球公布4月欧元区、德国、法国PMI初值。 周三公布数据显示，受特朗普关税不确定性影响，欧元区、德国、法国服务业均意外收缩。法国综合 PMI指数也从48下降至47.3，服务业的降幅也大于制造业。 受服务业拖累，欧元区经济陷入停滞 欧元区4月商业增长停滞，欧元区占主导地位的服务业意外收缩，制造业低于荣枯线但有所改善： 欧元区4月综合PMI初值50.1，仅略高于50的荣枯分界线，预期50.2，前值50.9。 欧元区4月制造业PMI初值48.7，预期47.4，前值48.6。 欧元区4月服务业PMI初值49.7，预期50.5，前值51。 关税拖累服务业活动，4月德国私营部门陷入收缩 关税不确定性担忧导致服务业活动急剧下降，德国私营部门意外四个月内首次收缩。 根据标普全球周三公布的数据，德国4月综合PMI初值49.7，预期50.5，前值51.3，为去年12月来最低。 50是区分扩张与收缩的分界线。 "服务业活动不增反减，而这几乎是2024年2月以来首次出现的情况。这已将整个经济推入停 滞区域。" 更令人担忧的是，服务企业的乐观情绪大幅下滑，商业前景指数从57.8暴跌至53.1，创下自2020年新冠 疫情 ...