中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国政府关门风险陡增、联储主席候选人未知，伊朗局势紧张，欧美地缘问题反复， | | | 长线持有 | 多基金撤离美元资产，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银短期波动率较大，分析来看白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，全年来 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均 | | ★★ | | 对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 美联储如期不降息，黄金创新高带动有色飘红。铜矿供应紧张，海外冶炼厂长协谈 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 判承压，强预期和弱现实博弈激烈，铜高位区间盘整，建议铜多单移动止盈落袋， | | ★ | | 中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 锌锭淡季去库超预期，投机热钱涌入，短期锌震荡偏强，建议前期多单持有，逐渐 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 逢高止盈。企业卖出套保积极布局，锁定库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas market, the January FOMC meeting maintained the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed continued to purchase short - term bonds, and the balance sheet expanded. In the context of a weak US dollar and rising geopolitical risks, precious metals, industrial metals, and oil prices all showed upward trends. In the domestic market, A - shares fluctuated and closed higher, with funds flowing back to the dividend sector. The market was in a differentiated stage, and the medium - term trend was still positive [2][3]. - Precious metals continued to soar, and the gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a low level. Copper prices were expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term, and aluminum prices reached a new high. Alumina was expected to rebound in the short term, and cast aluminum was expected to follow the upward trend. Zinc prices were expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while lead prices were expected to consolidate at the integer - level mark. Tin prices were expected to be volatile at a high level. Steel products and iron ore were under pressure, and coking coal and coke futures rebounded. Bean and rapeseed meal were expected to be volatile and stronger, and palm oil was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][16][17][19][20][21][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The January FOMC meeting maintained the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75% with a 10:2 vote. Most members adhered to data - dependence and policy observation. The Fed continued to purchase $40 billion of short - term bonds per month, and the balance sheet expanded until at least April. Powell emphasized the marginal stability of the economy, and the weak US dollar and rising geopolitical risks drove up the prices of precious metals, industrial metals, and oil [2]. - Domestic: A - shares fluctuated and closed higher on Wednesday. Funds returned to the dividend sector, and the two - market trading volume rebounded to 2.99 trillion yuan. The margin trading scale remained above 2.7 trillion yuan. The market was in a differentiated stage, and the medium - term trend was positive [3]. Precious Metals - Prices continued to rise strongly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $5400 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures approached $120 per ounce. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties led investors to seek refuge in gold. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, and concerns about silver delivery risks also boosted silver prices. The gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a low level [4][5]. Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated and declined, while LME copper was strongly volatile above $13,000. Domestic spot trading was poor, and inventories increased. The Fed's neutral policy stance was considered appropriate. The weak US dollar boosted copper prices. In the short term, copper prices were expected to remain volatile at a high level, and precious metals would drive up the copper price center in the medium term [6][7]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 25,640 yuan/ton, up 5.75%. LME aluminum closed at $3263.5/ton, up 1.59%. Geopolitical risks in Iran and capital inflows pushed up aluminum prices. However, short - term capital overheating and the seasonal off - season in consumption led to large price fluctuations. Investors were advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [8][9]. Alumina - The main futures contract closed at 2811 yuan/ton, up 2.27%. The overall strength of the aluminum sector improved the market sentiment of alumina. The supply pressure was slightly relieved due to factory maintenance. It was expected to rebound in the short term, but the upward space was limited [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main futures contract closed at 23,785 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The rapid rise of primary aluminum drove up the price of cast aluminum futures. The supply of scrap aluminum decreased, and the cost support increased. It was expected to follow the upward trend [11]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract was volatile and slightly stronger. The market risk preference remained high, and rising natural gas prices and low processing fees supported zinc prices. It was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but there was a risk of correction [12][13]. Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract was in a narrow - range shock. Due to heavy pollution and losses, smelters' production cuts increased, but the terminal consumption was weak, and social inventories increased. It was expected to consolidate at the integer - level mark [14][15]. Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract was in a sideways shock. The impact of Indonesia's expected increase in the minimum tin ore purchase price was limited. The raw material supply was tight, and downstream demand was weak. It was expected to be volatile at a high level [16]. Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. Steel mills' maintenance increased, and the supply pressure decreased. The demand was weak, and the market entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It was expected to remain volatile at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [17][18]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures were under pressure. The implementation of the steel export license policy might lead to a 15% - 20% decline in steel exports in the first quarter of 2026. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak. It was expected to be under pressure [19]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The first round of coke price hikes was basically implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises was repaired. The supply of coke decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand was weak. It was expected to be volatile in the short term [20]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures were stronger. The dry and hot weather in Argentina affected crop growth, and the domestic pre - holiday stocking and declining inventories supported prices. It was expected to be volatile and stronger [21][22]. Palm Oil - Palm oil futures were slightly stronger. The Fed paused interest - rate cuts, and rising oil prices and the expected decrease in palm oil production and increase in demand supported palm oil prices. It was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [23][24]. Metal Trading Data - The report provided the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc., on the previous trading day [25]. Industrial Data - The report presented detailed industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including prices, inventories, spreads, etc. [26][28][29][30][31]

文章来源：金十数据 金价在创纪录高位继续展现出坚实的上涨动力，目前已稳固突破每盎司5500美元。截至发稿，现货黄金 周四早盘一度累涨逾170美元，盘中向上触及5595美元/盎司。 一位市场分析师指出，驱动这一投资需求的远不止是投机狂热。 渣打银行全球大宗商品研究主管苏基·库珀（Suki Cooper）在其最新的贵金属报告中表示，黄金前所未 有的涨势持续得到基本面因素的支撑。 "本月（截至1月20日），战术投资者增加了对黄金的敞口，但其增速并未与价格上涨同步，"她分析 道，"过去两周，基金净多头仓位增加了1.49万手，这主要源于新建立的多头头寸（1.48万手），而在报 告期内金价上涨了约300美元/盎司。通常，金价每上涨100美元/盎司会伴随约6万手的仓位变动，这表 明当前可能有其他因素在起作用。虽然传统宏观驱动因素的作用正在减弱，但结构性驱动因素却在增 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 强。对美联储独立性及货币政策可能转向宽松的日益担忧、不断升级的地缘政治风险，以及重燃的贸易 与关税忧虑，很可能正推动资金——尤其是由零售投资者引领的资金——更快地配置于黄金。在我们看 来，战术性 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美联储释放耐心信号 股指：美联储如期暂停降息，对 A 股影响有限 【市场资讯】1）国家能源局：截至 2025 年底全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比增 长 16.1%。2）美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话。鲍威 尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任者远离政治。3）加拿 大央行宣布维持 2.25%基准利率不变。4）贝森特：特朗普可能在可能在一周公布美联储主 席人选。5）巴西央行将利率维持在 15%不变，表示将在下次会议上开始降息。6）加纳央 行行长：加纳央行已出售部分黄金储备以获取外汇。7）特朗普表达不担忧美元走弱后，贝 森特表示，美国长期奉行强势美元政策，还称绝对没有干预日元。8）特朗普警告对伊朗下 一次袭击将更严重，称后者时间不多了。伊朗常驻联合国代表团回应称，伊方愿在相互尊 重基础上与美对话。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 过渡阶段。海外方面，美联储最新 FOMC 议息会议维 ...

马斯克称，特斯拉需要建造并运营他所称的芯片工厂"TeraFab"来生产半导体。这将是一项耗资数十亿 美元的巨大工程，标志着该公司在核心电动汽车业务之外的又一次扩张。 "为了消除三四年内可能出现的瓶颈，我们必须建造一座特斯拉TeraFab工厂，"马斯克周三在特斯拉财 报电话会议上表示。"一座在美国本土的超大型芯片工厂，集逻辑电路、存储芯片和封装于一体。" 这家全球市值最高的汽车制造商把未来押注于人工智能（AI）、自动驾驶和机器人技术，这些项目对 芯片的需求量极大。目前，特斯拉从三星电子和台积电采购芯片。 马斯克表示，现有供应商台积电、三星和美光科技无法满足特斯拉所需的量。 "这对于确保我们免受地缘政治风险影响至关重要，"马斯克说。"我认为人们可能低估了某些地缘政治 风险，这些风险将在几年内成为重大因素。" 这位全球首富近来曾表示，特斯拉可能会自行生产芯片，以应对芯片供应短缺问题，他认为这是激烈的 AI竞赛中最大的瓶颈。 这家全球市值最高的汽车制造商把未来押注于人工智能（AI）、自动驾驶和机器人技术，这些项目对 芯片的需求量极大。目前，特斯拉从三星电子和台积电采购芯片。 马斯克表示，现有供应商台积电、三星和美光科 ...

智通财经获悉，现货黄金价格在冲高逼近5600美元后出现回落，截至发稿，金价涨1.02%，报5472.41美元/盎司，刷新历史最高纪录，延续了此前因市场预 期货币宽松政策、资金大规模撤离主权债券及传统货币体系所引发的强劲涨势，形成令人瞩目的持续上行态势。 金价一度飙升4.6%，创下近期显著涨幅，主要源于交易员普遍押注美联储新任货币政策掌舵人或将在今年晚些时候更倾向于采取更多宽松政策。值得注意 的是，尽管美联储在周三结束的会议上决定维持当前利率水平不变，但同时释放信号——未来任何潜在的政策调整都将以更为审慎的态度推进。 此外，加剧的地缘政治风险、投资者逃离货币和国债，以及美元走弱，共同引发了对贵金属的投资热潮。今年以来，黄金价格已上涨约 25%，本周突破每 盎司 5000 美元大关。同期，白银价格飙升 63%。 周二，美元指数跌至四年低点，创下自去年关税政策实施以来最大单日跌幅。此前特朗普曾称美元"表现良好"且未过度贬值，但此次暴跌与总统表态形成反 差。值得关注的是，特朗普最新表示美元近期贬值对美国企业有利，这一言论虽与美国官员过往立场相符，却仍引发外汇市场剧烈波动——市场认为该表态 实质上承认了美元近期显著贬值 ...

智通财经APP获悉，现货黄金价格在冲高逼近5600美元后出现回落，截至发稿，金价涨1.02%，报5472.41美元/盎司，刷新历史最高纪录，延续了此前因市场 预期货币宽松政策、资金大规模撤离主权债券及传统货币体系所引发的强劲涨势，形成令人瞩目的持续上行态势。 周三市场出现分化：在财政部长贝森特重申"政府支持强势美元"后，美元汇率暂时企稳，但贵金属价格延续强势行情，继续大幅上涨。 "虽然美元走软有利于出口商——外国买家购买美元(计价资产)的成本降低——但会加大通胀压力，"FP 市场(FP Markets)首席分析师亚伦·希尔在一份报告中 称。"当前的问题在于特朗普的不可预测性。从威胁加征关税到觊觎格陵兰岛，他的举动持续扰乱市场，促使投资者减持美国资产。这加剧了美元的下行压 力，并可能最终推高通胀。" 同时，市场也依然对日本债券市场近期的动荡保持敏感，这引发了对全球金融体系流动性风险的担忧。日本债券市场出现大规模抛售，这是对政府巨额财政 支出担忧的最新例证，而有关美国可能出手干预以支撑日元的猜测则令美元承压，从而使得贵金属对大多数买家而言变得更便宜。 对美联储更偏鸽派且独立性降低的预期，以及地缘政治风险，"可能推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first pause in rate cuts after three consecutive reductions in the second half of 2025. The assessment of economic activity was upgraded to "expanding at a robust pace," indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate and persistent inflation above target levels [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to rise, with international gold prices reaching historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment. The market's concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][15] - The recent FOMC meeting's decision to pause rate cuts has improved concerns regarding employment risks, supporting the upward trend in precious metals. The demand for strategic allocation in precious metals is increasing, with gold and silver ETF sizes expanding [2][15] Group 2: Oil - The SC night market saw an increase of 1.54% in oil prices. The easing of tensions in Venezuela and potential diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to this rise. Venezuela is advancing a comprehensive oil law reform, allowing both foreign and local companies to independently develop oil fields [3][10] - As of January 16, the average daily U.S. crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels year-on-year [3][10] Group 3: Aluminum - The night market for aluminum saw an increase of 1.87%. However, the current upward drivers in the spot market are limited, with the aluminum water ratio declining below 75%. The operating rates of leading downstream aluminum enterprises have also decreased, reflecting weak consumption sentiment [3][19] - Despite a weak short-term fundamental outlook, long-term narratives of low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relative support for aluminum prices [19] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has shown a positive trend in 2026, driven by the technology cycle, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market is transitioning from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth [7] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate aligns with market expectations, and the economic outlook remains uncertain with inflation still relatively high [4][9]

美东时间周三，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，标普500指数盘中一度突破7000点大关。存储概念股走高，热门中概股涨跌不一。美联储"按兵不 动"，黄金势如破竹站上5400美元，国际油价集体飘红。 | 道琼斯工业 | 纳斯达克指数 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 49015.60 | 23857.45 | 6978.03 | | +12.19 +0.02% | +40.35 +0.17% | -0.57 -0.01% | | 美国科技七巨头 | 中概科技龙头 | 中国金龙 | | 67018.39 | 4458.88 | 7892.01 | | +125.23 +0.19% | +27.93 +0.63% | +25.40 +0.32% | 具体来看，科技七巨头涨跌互现，英伟达涨超1%，亚马逊、苹果、脸书均下跌约0.7%。 盘后，特斯拉、Meta和微软率先公布财报。 特斯拉第四季度调整后每股收益0.5美元，高于预期；全年营收同比下降3%，这是该公司有史以来首次出现年度营收下滑的情况。截至北京时 间1月29日6:20，其盘后股价涨近4%。 据智通财经报道，马斯克称，预计下季度将开始逐步停 ...

Group 1 - The Indian stock market is experiencing its worst annual start in a decade, with the Bombay Stock Exchange index down nearly 4% year-to-date and the NIFTY index facing its worst opening since 2016 [1] - Approximately $360 billion in market capitalization has been wiped out from the Indian stock market in January alone, putting significant pressure on the Modi government ahead of the upcoming budget announcement [1] - Foreign investors continue to sell off Indian stocks due to high valuations, weak earnings, and geopolitical risks, following a record outflow of funds in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Modi government plans to announce a series of domestic policy reforms in the upcoming budget to sustain rapid economic growth and enhance resilience against external shocks [2] - The economic growth rate for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, is projected to be 7.4%, but infrastructure spending and tax cuts have limited the government's fiscal space for supporting the economy in the new budget [2] - Uncertainties in trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington have led to market volatility and a decline in the rupee to historical lows [2]