在全球地缘政治局势持续紧张的背景下，美国总统特朗普近日对俄罗斯发出强硬警告，称若俄罗斯在结 束俄乌冲突问题上没有实质性进展，美国将在10天后对其实施严厉的关税和其他制裁措施。 摘要美国总统特朗普近日对俄罗斯发出强硬警告，称若俄罗斯在结束俄乌冲突问题上没有实质性进展， 美国将在10天后对其实施严厉的关税和其他制裁措施。特朗普的强硬立场加剧了地缘政治紧张局势，黄 金作为传统避险资产可能因此受益，短期内金价可能上涨。 特朗普在"空军一号"上对记者表示，他对俄罗斯的态度感到失望，认为普京似乎无意结束这场已持续三 年多的冲突。他明确指出，如果俄罗斯在10天内未能展现出结束冲突的诚意，美国将迅速采取行动，包 括对俄罗斯实施关税及其他经济制裁措施。 特朗普的强硬立场加剧了地缘政治紧张局势，黄金作为传统避险资产可能因此受益，短期内金价可能上 涨。然而，如果制裁导致全球经济放缓或美元走强（因美国加征关税可能提振美元），金价可能面临一 定下行压力。总体来看，短期内地缘政治风险主导，黄金价格更可能受到上行支撑。 需要注意的是，俄罗斯是全球主要石油出口国之一，若美国实施制裁，尤其是针对俄罗斯石油出口的二 级制裁，可能导致全球石油供应 ...

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, reaching a high of 3334.11 USD/oz after a prior low, indicating a successful low-buy strategy implemented at 3310-3320 USD/oz [1] - The current price of London gold is reported at 3327.36 USD/oz, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.98 and a slight rise of 0.03% [4] Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The recent agreement on the US-EU trade deal has alleviated some trade war concerns, which previously contributed to a decline in gold prices, although ongoing disputes may still provide opportunities for price rebounds [4] - Strong economic data has led to a recovery in the US dollar, which has negatively impacted gold prices; however, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve may limit further dollar gains, providing potential support for gold [4] - Geopolitical risks have temporarily decreased but continue to restrict significant declines in gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening and stabilizing, with gold prices operating above the lower band; MACD shows a bearish crossover with increasing green bars, while RSI indicates a retreat from overbought levels, currently between 50-40 [5] - The 4-hour chart shows narrowing Bollinger Bands, with prices near the middle band; a bullish crossover in MACD is emerging, and RSI indicates a rebound from oversold conditions, suggesting a clear demand for upward movement [5] - The hourly chart indicates stable Bollinger Bands, with prices above the middle band; MACD lines are converging, and RSI shows a rebound from oversold levels, reinforcing the demand for price recovery [5] Future Trading Strategies - For aggressive traders, a buy position can be established near the support level of 3300 USD/oz, while conservative traders may consider entering around 3265-3275 USD/oz, relying on the 3250 USD/oz support [7] - For short positions, aggressive traders can look to sell near the resistance level of 3400 USD/oz, while conservative traders may wait for a confirmation at 3445-3435 USD/oz [7] - Specific trading recommendations for futures and gold products include monitoring key support and resistance levels, with 770 RMB/kg as a critical support for futures and 765 RMB/kg for gold T+D [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, most are rated as "震荡" (sideways), with some "震荡偏弱" (weakly sideways) and no "偏强" (strongly bullish) or "偏弱" (strongly bearish) ratings [266] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market has warmed up again, with energy and chemical products generally showing a strong sideways trend, supported by the strength of raw materials such as crude oil and coking coal. The futures market has rebounded, but the spot market is relatively weak, especially for polyolefins. The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on the oil market and the supply - demand dynamics of various chemical products [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Influencing Factors - The upcoming Politburo meeting has led to a warm - up in the domestic commodity market. The energy and chemical sector is influenced by both crude oil and coking coal, with futures rebounding but spot prices being weak, especially for polyolefins. The situation in Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's remarks on Russia continue to support oil prices, while OPEC+ is in a period of rapid production increase, and there is a balance between strong demand from refineries and supply pressure [1][2][5] 3.2 Outlook for Each Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and the market should watch out for Russian oil risks. The high refinery operations in China and the US and geopolitical factors support prices, while supply pressure from OPEC+ exists. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5] - **Asphalt**: With the rise in crude oil prices, it is a good time for short - sellers to enter the market. The spot market shows a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south, and the futures market may shift the pricing from Shandong to East and South China. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the rebound of crude oil, but overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Geopolitical upgrades may only cause short - term price fluctuations, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [7] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price follows the rebound of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Although the current valuation is low, it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [8] - **PX**: After the cooling of market sentiment, it returns to cost and fundamental pricing logic. The supply is stable, and the demand from downstream PTA is weakening, with production profits narrowing [9] - **PTA**: Major suppliers have reduced production, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, and the processing fee has been repaired. The overall supply - demand situation in August is expected to improve, but the absolute price still mainly follows raw material fluctuations [9] - **Pure Benzene**: With the rebound of crude oil, its price has slightly increased. The third - quarter fundamentals have improved, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [10][11] - **Styrene**: As market sentiment cools, its price has declined. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventories are accumulating. If the macro - sentiment continues to improve, there may be inventory replenishment in the industry chain [12] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Market sentiment has cooled, and typhoon weather has led to a reduction in port inventories. The supply - demand situation in August - September is expected to turn to a wide - balance state, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation after the typhoon [13] - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the upstream polymerization cost has declined. The production and sales rate has increased, and some factories have carried out maintenance. The processing fee is expected to remain stable, and the absolute price will follow raw material fluctuations [14] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The support from upstream polyester raw materials has weakened, and the "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided. The market price is expected to follow raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee has support at the bottom [15][16] - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in the inland area is not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate. The domestic main production areas are in a state of weak supply and demand, and the port inventory has decreased. The profit of methanol production is still relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by the negative feedback from olefins [17] - **Urea**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. The market sentiment has received short - term support, and exports support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to its return to fundamentals [18] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The commodity sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply side still has pressure, while the demand side is in the off - season [21] - **PP**: The commodity sentiment is volatile in the short - term, and it is expected to fluctuate. The macro - support has weakened, and the supply side is expected to increase, while the demand side is weak [22] - **Propylene (PL)**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and it may fluctuate in the short - term. The spot supply of propylene is abundant, and the downstream follows the demand. The short - term macro - end may still fluctuate after the decline [23] - **PVC**: The policy expectation is positive, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The production is expected to increase, and the cost may rise [24] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by the low inventory in Shandong, it is expected to run sideways. The policy expectation is positive, and the demand from alumina is increasing, while the export price has rebounded slightly [24] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: The report provides cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads for various commodities, showing the price relationships and changes among different contracts and commodities [25][26][27] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists different commodities such as methanol, urea, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text, only the commodity names are mentioned [28][40][51]

昨夜，中国光伏行业协会发布澄清公告。 中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行 据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯 德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。双方就中美经贸关系、宏观经济政策等双方共同关心的经贸议题开展了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流，回顾并肯定了中美 日内瓦经贸会谈共识和伦敦框架落实情况。根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 何立峰表示，中美双方经贸团队要以两国元首6月5日通话重要共识为指引，秉持相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，尊重各自关切，进一步巩固共 识，加深互信。中方对中美经贸关系的立场是一贯的，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，双方在经贸领域拥有广泛共同利益和广阔合作空间，中美合则两 利、斗则俱伤。稳定、健康、可持续的中美经贸关系不仅有利于实现各自的发展目标，也有利于促进世界经济的发展与稳定。下一步，双方应继续按照两 国元首通话重要共识，充分发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作，进一步深化对话磋商，不断争取更多双赢结果。 美方表示 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of having a well-defined investment strategy before entering the market, akin to preparing for a battle [1] - It highlights the necessity of being proactive in predicting market trends and taking advantage of favorable conditions while maintaining strict risk control [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Recent gold prices have shown volatility, with a significant drop to a near three-week low of $3301.29 per ounce, influenced by a strong dollar and improved global risk appetite [2] - The article notes that gold is currently facing multiple challenges, including a strong dollar, rising risk appetite, and increasing real interest rates, which could lead to further declines [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3300, they may test the $3250 support level, while a recovery above $3340 could signal a bullish trend [2][3][5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are experiencing upward momentum due to rising geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Brent crude nearing $70 per barrel [6] - The article discusses the complexities in market sentiment due to geopolitical uncertainties and upcoming OPEC+ meetings that may influence supply decisions [6] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a mid-term upward trend, with short-term movements influenced by recent news, indicating a potential for further gains [7]

海外业务的高韧性成为业绩增长的重要驱动力。今年上半年，公司持续经营收入204.1亿元，海外客户 收入占比约85%。其中，来自美国客户的收入有140.3亿元，同比增长38.4%；来自欧洲客户的收入有 23.3亿元，同比增长9.2%。 信达证券研报指出，从2024年生物安全法案到2025年中美关税冲突，市场对于地缘政治风险的担忧已经 充分演绎，2025年H1公司来自美国客户的业务增速依然强劲，再次打消市场疑虑，全球化趋势难以抵 挡，公司在全球产业链中地位稳健。 细分业务中，TIDES（寡核苷酸和多肽）表现尤为亮眼。上半年，药明康德TIDES业务保持高速增长， 成为拉动业绩的关键因素之一。其业务收入50.3亿元，同比增长1.42倍，约占公司整体收入的24%。 7月29日，药明康德港股涨超11%，带动今日港股CRO板块逆势走强，泰格医药涨超9%，昭衍新药涨超 9%，康龙化成涨超7%。板块集体上扬的背后，是药明康德前一日发布的半年报数据为市场注入强心 针。 前一日晚间，药明康德公布2025年半年报。药明康德上半年营业收入208亿元，同比增长20.6%。归母 净利润85.61亿元，同比增长101.9%。今年上半年，公司持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have dropped to a near three-week low due to a stronger dollar and improved risk sentiment following the US-EU trade agreement, with investors awaiting key US economic data this week that could influence gold prices [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The dollar's rebound is a significant factor pressuring gold prices, supported by strong US economic data such as core capital goods orders and optimistic trade negotiations [1] - The US Federal Reserve's cautious policy stance and President Trump's calls for interest rate cuts may provide potential support for gold prices [1][2] - Market sentiment is mixed, with only 14% of professional analysts bullish on gold prices, while 66% of retail investors remain optimistic about a price increase, indicating confidence in the long-term trend [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Central Bank Actions - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia, and stalled ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, continue to pose risks that could support gold prices if conditions worsen [2] - Central banks are increasing gold purchases as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy, particularly among emerging economies like China, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] Group 3: Upcoming Events and Technical Analysis - The market is anticipating significant events this week, particularly the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% [2][6] - Key economic data releases, including JOLTS job openings, consumer confidence index, ADP employment data, and the non-farm payroll report, will influence the Fed's future monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [6][7] - Technically, gold is currently oscillating around $3,335, testing a critical upward trend line, with support levels identified between $3,319 and $3,325 [6]

与此同时，现货黄金也从7月22日的3431高点后连续4个交易日下跌，28日收盘报3314.440美元/盎司，6天跌超110美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，今年初尤其是4月初以来， 关税战和全球贸易战成为影响金价的重要因素，贸易战激烈时金价上行，达成关税协议、贸易战缓和时金价明 显回落。 美日、美欧之间关税谈判落定，市场对全球经济风险判断转向，作为避险资产的黄金投资热度下降。 此外，地缘政治风险上升时金价抬升，缓和时金价下行，过去几年地缘政治风险一直是影响金价的主要因素。经济数据和货币政策也有影响。美国就业率 好转、美元指数上升，对黄金价格形成压制。 29日，国内金饰价格跟跌，多品牌金饰价格均跌破千元。周生生足金饰品标价994元/克，较7月23日1029元/克的价格下跌35元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价 995元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌28元/克；周大福足金饰品标价998元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌25元/克。 金价短期下行，受到多重因素影响。 从7月23日至28日，COMEX黄金期货价格连续4个交易日下跌，最低触及3300美元/盎司，28日收报3310.0美元/盎司。 专家提醒，未来黄金价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the improvement of market risk - appetite, the global major stock index futures and non - US currencies generally rebounded, leading to a slowdown in gold's safe - haven demand. The median forecast from a Reuters survey of 40 analysts and traders raised the 2025 gold price from $3,065 to $3,220 per ounce and expected it to reach $3,400 in 2026 [2]. - The $3300 level of the outer - market gold price may form strong support. Central bank gold - buying demand remains the cornerstone of gold demand, with China having increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, and nearly 40% of central banks considering geopolitical risks as an important reason to increase gold positions [2]. - Trump's threat of sanctions on Russia's oil exports due to the Ukraine war led to a 2.3% increase in Brent crude to $69.90 per barrel, indicating that geopolitical risks are still high and providing side - support for gold [2]. - Future Fed policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data are potential driving factors. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is consolidated, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. A significant shortfall in subsequent PCE growth may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 771.44 yuan/gram, down 3.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9195 yuan/kg, down 17 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract holding volume of Shanghai gold was 212,407 lots, an increase of 2,732 lots; that of Shanghai silver was 392,743 lots, a decrease of 5,678 lots. The top 20 net positions of the Shanghai gold main contract were 155,575 lots, a decrease of 1,058 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 128,368 lots, a decrease of 781 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 31,263 kg, an increase of 1,005 kg; that of silver was 1,204,866 kg, a decrease of 3,403 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 767.04 yuan/gram, down 3.15 yuan; the silver spot price was 9146 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.4 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.19 yuan; that of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 49 yuan/kg, an increase of 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 253,038 contracts, an increase of 39,923 contracts; those of silver were 60,620 contracts, an increase of 1,172 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.24%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.76%, a decrease of 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.34%, a decrease of 0.73%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.35%, a decrease of 0.73% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Trade and Politics**: Trump may impose a 15% - 20% uniform tariff on imports from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. Sino - US high - level officials restarted tariff negotiations in Stockholm, aiming to extend the August 12 tariff truce by 90 days. The EU and the US reached an important agreement, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened [2]. - **Geopolitics**: Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement, reducing geopolitical risks. However, Trump expressed disappointment with Putin again, and there were still frictions after the temporary cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [2]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The European Central Bank's hawkish official Kazimir said that the bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again, and the reason for action in September is not sufficient unless there is a major unexpected economic turn [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for H1 2025, driven by high demand in the TEDIS business, leading to an upward revision of its annual performance guidance [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with continuous operations revenue growing by 24.2% [1]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.31 billion yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 8.56 billion yuan, reflecting a 101.9% increase [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.14 billion yuan, a 20.4% year-on-year growth, and adjusted net profit of 3.64 billion yuan, up 47.9% [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - **Chemical Business (WuXi Chemistry)**: H1 2025 revenue was 16.3 billion yuan, a 33.5% increase, with an adjusted gross margin of 49.0%, up 5.2 percentage points. The TIDES business saw revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a significant 141.6% increase [2]. - **Testing Business (WuXi Testing)**: H1 2025 revenue was 2.69 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.2%, with an adjusted gross margin of 25.1%, down 12.3 percentage points. Q2 2025 showed signs of recovery with a 5.5% year-on-year growth in laboratory analysis and testing services [3]. - **Biology Business (WuXi Biology)**: H1 2025 revenue was 1.25 billion yuan, a 7.1% increase, with an adjusted gross margin of 36.4%, down 0.7 percentage points. The business contributed to over 30% of new customer acquisition [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The company has a strong international presence, with approximately 85% of revenue coming from overseas clients. Revenue from U.S. clients was 14.03 billion yuan, up 38.4%, while revenue from Chinese clients decreased by 5.2% to 3.15 billion yuan [5]. - The company’s order backlog for continuous operations reached 56.69 billion yuan, a 37.2% year-on-year increase, indicating robust future growth potential [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company has revised its 2025 revenue growth target for continuous operations from 10-15% to 13-17%, with overall revenue targets adjusted from 41.5-43 billion yuan to 42.5-43.5 billion yuan [4]. - The company expects to maintain strong growth trends in the second half of 2025, supported by high demand in the TEDIS business [4].