021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 | | | | | | 表1：12月11日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 1527 | 1525 | 1543 | 1488.5 | 1491.5 | -2.96% | 18,180 | 25,407 | -631 | -0.37 | | JM2605 | 1070 | 1065.5 | 10 ...

＃summary＃ 行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2105元/吨，上升27元 /吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率89.81%，环比+0.72%，山西亚鑫30 万吨甲醇装置预期近期检修结束；下游总产能利用率75.1%，周 下降1.17%；中国甲醇港口样本库存123.44万吨，周下降11.5万 吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存35.28万吨，周减少0.87万吨， 样本企业订单待发20.75万吨，周降低3.22万吨。评：国内甲醇 开工高位，下游需求小幅下降，本周甲醇港口库存大幅去库， 华东地区甲醇倒流内地强势支撑沿江主流库区提货。内地部分 市场偏强，企业竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市场基差维稳，商谈 成交一般。甲醇港口库存高位下降，预计短期震荡偏弱运行。 【短评-白银】美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，达 到23.6万人，这一增幅为2020年3月以来最高。截至11月29日当 周，续请失业金人数降至184万人，创四年来最大单周降幅，当 周恰逢感恩节假期。评：初请失业金人数有所增加，美国就业 形势严峻，2026年降息或仍有空间，提升风险偏好。白银震荡 偏多，关注是否出现逼空行情。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月12日 研 ...

来源：市场资讯 作者： 李馨 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13860元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面， 3128B棉新疆到厂价14835元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨，现货基差CF01+975，较前一日变动-75； 3128B棉全国均价15013元/吨，较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF01+1153，较前一日变动-71。 近期市场资讯，近期巴基斯坦纱厂需求持续疲软，当地皮棉价格维持区间盘整。轧花厂仍惜售高等级库 存，部分低等级资源成交价较现行价格低500-1500卢比/莫恩德，为纱厂提供了补库良机。此外，纱厂 普遍反映经营压力重，纱线利润承压。10日卡拉奇棉花协会（KCA）2025/26年度现货价格稳定在15500 卢比/莫恩德。 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘白糖2605合约5245元/吨，较前一日变动-83元/吨，幅度-1.56%。现货方面，广西南 宁地区白糖现货价格5370元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，现货基差SR05+125，较前一日变动+83。云南 昆明地区白糖现货价格5340元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to be strong before the holiday due to tight supply - demand, but not to be chased at high prices in the short - term. Hold long PX and short BZ positions. Be cautious about the warehouse receipt pressure of PX01 contract [9]. - PTA is in a high - level volatile market with cost support. Hold long PX and short PTA positions for the 05 contract and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be wary of the negative feedback in the industrial chain caused by early terminal holidays from late December to early January [10]. - MEG is in a weak trend. Pay attention to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. There is a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On December 11, Platts evaluated Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea at 835.67 dollars/ton and 814.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 4 dollars/ton from the previous day. The FOMC cut the target interest rate by 25 basis points on December 10 [4]. - In the Platts closing assessment, the 1 - 2 month spread of PX continued to narrow. Some Asian PX term contracts have not been settled, and the volume of 2026 contracts is much lower than that of 2025 [6]. Fundamentals - PX: Domestic production start - up rate remains at 88.2% (- 0.3%). GS has a shutdown plan in December, Satorp in the Middle East restarts 700,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans for Zhejiang Petrochemical and Sheng Hong Refining [9]. - PTA: Mainland China's device changes are small this week, with a load of 73.7%. A 550,000 - ton device in Taiwan, China is shut down, and the load drops to 30% [7]. - MEG: As of December 11, the overall start - up load in mainland China is 69.93% (down 3.01% from the previous period), and the start - up load of syngas - made MEG is 72.17% (down 0.41% from the previous period) [7]. - Polyester: The start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remains stable at about 75%. The overall polyester load in mainland China is about 91.2% [7][8]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is - 1, PTA trend intensity is - 1, and MEG trend intensity is 0 [9]. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: PX, PTA, and PF closed up, while MEG and SC closed down on the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: PX, PTA, and short - fiber processing fees increased, while MEG, naphtha, and Brent crude oil prices decreased [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为233元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为672.41元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为2874元/吨，枯水期成本支 撑有所上升。 2、基差: 12月11日，华东不通氧现货价9200元/吨，05合约基差为970元/吨，现货 升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，聚酯工厂补货为主，12月主港货在01贴水20附 近商谈成交，零星在01贴水23~25有成交，本周仓单在01贴水26有成交，价格商谈区间在4600~4680。今日主流现货基差在01-21。 中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间波动，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，关注油 价走势及下游需求情况。 2、基差：现货4645，01合约基差-19，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3 ...

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1044.0 | 1002.0 | 1002.0 | -42.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1131.0 | 1062.0 | 1053.0 | -78.0 | -9.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1019.0 | 984.0 | 984.0 | -35.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1010.0 | 964.0 | 956.0 | -54.0 | -8.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | ...

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3069 CNY/ton, down 48 CNY/ton or 1.54% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 87,900 contracts [3][12] - Spot prices fell, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price down 20 CNY/ton to 2940 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price down 40 CNY/ton to 3180 CNY/ton; national construction material transaction volume was 92,200 tons [3][12] - National rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week-on-week to 1,787,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 392,900 tons; social inventory fell by 224,300 tons to 3,387,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 452,800 tons [3][12] - The supply-demand data appears strong, with many regions experiencing specification shortages, providing strong support for price trends; however, market sentiment remains cautious due to expectations of increased steel mill restarts in January and weakening demand in the off-season [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 757 CNY/ton, down 12 CNY/ton or 1.6% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 320,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 1,000 contracts [4][13] - Port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 1,203,600 tons to 161,114,700 tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 1,500,000 tons to 8,834,000 tons [4][13] - Supply from Australia has stabilized, while Brazil's shipments have decreased; demand is affected by increased annual inspections and the maintenance of 13 blast furnaces [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1035 CNY/ton, down 35 CNY/ton or 3.27%, with an increase in open interest by 3,764 contracts [5][14] - Spot prices in Shanxi's Linfen region for lean coal decreased to 895 CNY/ton, while other coal prices also saw declines [5][14] - Supply recovery is slow due to some coal mines being shut down; downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and procurement is cautious due to reduced profits in coking enterprises [5][14] Coking - The coking futures contract closed at 1491.5 CNY/ton, down 35.5 CNY/ton or 2.32%, with a decrease in open interest by 631 contracts [6][15] - Spot prices for metallurgical coke at the port fell to 1440 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton [6][15] - The second round of price reductions for coke has begun, with expectations of expanded losses for coking enterprises; steel mills are also increasing maintenance, leading to a decline in demand [6][15] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5712 CNY/ton, down 0.49%, with an increase in open interest by 10,182 contracts [7][16] - The main steel procurement price for December was set at 5770 CNY/ton, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton, with procurement volume down by 1,300 tons [7][16] - Production costs remain high, leading to increased willingness to reduce or halt production; inventory levels are at record highs due to weak demand [7][16] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5418 CNY/ton, down 0.88%, with a decrease in open interest by 480 contracts [8][17] - The main steel procurement price for December was set at 5660 CNY/ton, a decrease of 20 CNY/ton, with a slight increase in procurement volume [8][17] - High production costs and weak demand are leading to increased intentions to reduce or halt production, with some companies already ceasing operations [8][17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-12 纸浆盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 油脂：近期或震荡盘整，关注进一步信息指引 蛋白粕：进口豆溢价成交，双粕或延续震荡 玉米/淀粉：现货上量价格承压，盘面震荡运行 生猪：基本面依旧宽松，价格弱势运行 天然橡胶：宽幅震荡，仍无强驱动 合成橡胶：盘面情绪偏暖 棉花：棉价走强，后续关注库存变动 白糖：短期下方支撑较强 纸浆：盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 双胶纸：情绪低迷，窄幅震荡 原木：买方接货意愿低迷，原木震荡走弱 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 纸浆观点：盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 逻辑:昨日纸浆期货大幅波动，夜盘期间05合约大幅上涨，一度接近涨 停，随后日盘价格有所回落，但依旧录得显著上涨。从消息面来看，夜盘 盘面异动时并无明显产业消息，在日盘期间银星公布涨价信息。我们认为 昨日的价格异动更多来自于资金端，而非信息面。基本面角度看，近期产 业消息面偏多变化。1、针、阔叶浆在美金盘报价上行，同时国内仍处于 下游生产高峰时期的状态下，价格上涨仍能向下传导。随着内盘针阔价差 的收窄，阔叶浆 ...