Report Overview - Report Date: October 22, 2025 [4] - Report Title: Rubber, Methanol, Crude Oil - Daily Report - Report Author: Chen Dong from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price center moved up to around 15,100 yuan/ton. Benefiting from better-than-expected production and sales in the domestic auto market, the demand drive strengthened, which was conducive to the valuation repair of the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,276 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,257 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread discount widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol market is still in a stage of oversupply and weak demand, and the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 remains in a weak state [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 448.1 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 434.0 yuan/barrel. As the previous macro - negative sentiment was "gradually digested, the short - term macro - drive was corrected, and the "bullish" atmosphere recovered. It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures will maintain a stable and oscillating trend in the future [6]. " 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons or 4.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 1.70%, and the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decrease of 4.51%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises "was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' "capacity utilization rates" have recovered "to pre - holiday levels, and the overall shipment performance within the cycle varies [8]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index showed stable " "expansion. " In September, "China's automobile "production and sales" were " "3.276 million "and 3.226 million "units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and "12.9% respectively. In September 2025 " the sales volume of China's heavy - truck " "market was 105,00 " "units, a year - on - year increase of about "82% "and a month - on - month increase of 15%, " "ach "ieving " six consecutive months of growth [9]. " Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025 " "the average domestic "methanol " "operating rate "was maintained at 84.38%, a week - on - week "slight increase of 4 "%, a month - on - month " "significant increase of 4.99%, and a slight increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly production of methanol in China reached 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - "week "slight decrease "of 49,3 " "tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared with "1.86 "51 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.95%, a week - on - week slight decrease of "0.03%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 6.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of "1.52%. The operating rate " "of acetic acid was "maintained at 71.61%, a week - on - week significant "decline of 10.04%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 54.89%, a week - on - week slight "de " " "crease of 3%. As of the week of " "October 17, 2025, the " "average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin " " "plants was " "88.36%, a week - on - week slight " " "increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 5.48 "%. As of October 17, 2025, the futures " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 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免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1209.50 | +32.50↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1709.50 | +37.50↑ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 832118.00 | +3293.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 47494.00 | -62.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -77600.00 | +15892.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3954.00 | -154.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 75.00 | +2.00↑ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 145.00 | -0.50↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 200.00 1089.00 | 0.00 焦炭仓单（日，张） -26.00↓ 唐山一级冶金焦（日，元/吨） | 2070.00 1720 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range projected to be around 6870 - 7030. The PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. The overall inventory pressure is not significant. The cost of oil - made LLDPE decreases with international oil prices, and the oil - made profit recovers; the coal - made cost drops slightly, and the loss deepens. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, while the new orders for the packaging film are limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts increased, with the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices at 6936 yuan/ton, 6978 yuan/ton, and 7009 yuan/ton respectively, up 53 yuan/ton, 61 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 234079 lots, down 52219 lots, and the open interest was 549864 lots, down 12101 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 42, down 8. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 77933 lots, up 2926 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6983.48 yuan/ton, down 8.26 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7131.43 yuan/ton, down 13.57 yuan/ton. The basis was 100.48, down 12.26 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 58.33 US dollars/barrel, down 0.99 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, down 8.5 US dollars. The mid - price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 771 US dollars/ton and 781 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.76%, down 2.19%. From October 10th to 16th, the PE output decreased by 2.05% to 65.06 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.19% to 81.76% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 52.19% (down 0.7%), 32% (up 0.33%), and 42.89% (up 7.28%) respectively. From October 10th to 16th, the average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.55%, and the overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 7.3% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene were 8.29% (up 0.78%) and 7.68% (up 0.34%) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options were 11.27%, down 0.91% [2]. Industry News - As of October 22nd, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene manufacturers was 51.46 tons, down 2.81% from the previous period; as of October 17th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 tons, down 0.05% from the previous period. From October 11th to 17th, the cost of oil - made LLDPE decreased by 3.34% to 7166 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 140.29 yuan/ton to - 80.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - made LLDPE decreased by 0.86% to 6507 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 76.15 yuan/ton to 494.14 yuan/ton [2]. Outlook - Tianjin Petrochemical, Guoneng Ningxia Coal Industry, and Daqing Petrochemical are scheduled for maintenance this week, and the previously short - stopped units will gradually restart. The PE output and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. In October, there are few new shutdown units, and new production capacity is about to come on stream, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, and the orders and operating rate are rising to the annual high; the new orders for the packaging film are limited, and the units are expected to operate stably. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the possible deterioration of the Venezuelan situation, international oil prices have risen significantly. In the short term, L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range of around 6870 - 7030 [2].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Russia has canceled fuel import tariffs due to declining domestic demand for oil products, indicating no current need for fuel imports [1] Industry Insights - South Korea's Ministry of Finance will reduce fuel tax relief measures starting in November, potentially impacting fuel prices and consumption [1] - In October, after the National Day holiday, shipowners are expected to resume procurement activities, stabilizing Singapore's marine fuel oil sales [2] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to soft downstream demand and continuous ample supply, with increased arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East and West Africa expected [2] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is also under pressure from high existing inventories and stable inflows of Russian high-sulfur products, maintaining sufficient supply in Singapore [2] - Global inventory levels are rising, with Singapore's inventory up 5.9%, ARA's up 4.3%, Fujairah's up 3.6%, and U.S. residual fuel oil inventory up 1.2% [3] - U.S. refinery utilization rates have decreased by 6.7%, while China's coking utilization rates have increased by 0.7% [3] - The price spread between low and high sulfur fuel oil is expected to see a slight rebound, influenced by external market conditions [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，据传阿根廷第二船豆粕可能重新进入中国市场， | | 豆粕 | | 利空市场情绪。但巴西未来十五天展望再度表现不足，豆粕低位小幅反弹。此外， | | ★ | 短线偏空整理 | 中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑作用，2800 附近短线存在支撑。但由于缺乏 | | | | 强利多驱动，豆粕暂维持偏弱整理对待，关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | | 短期震荡 | 榈油暂以高位震荡行情对待，仍可关注逢低企稳短多机会，但上行空间预计有限。 | | ★ | | | | | | 美国政府停摆导致美国农业部相关报告停更。美豆收获上市以及原油下跌拖累美 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-22 氧化铝价格或已进入筑底阶段 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20970元/吨，较上一交易日变化40元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价20850元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-110元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20870元/吨，较上一交易日变化50元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化15元/吨至-85元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-21日沪铝主力合约开于20900元/吨，收于20965元/吨，较上一交易日变化35元/吨，最 高价达21005元/吨，最低价达到20830元/吨。全天交易日成交108173手，全天交易日持仓234936手。 库存方面，截止2025-10-21，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.2万吨，仓单库存69397 吨，较上一交易日变化-550吨，LME铝库存484125吨，较上一交易日变化-3000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-21SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2865元/吨，山东价格录得2830元/吨，河南价格录得 2885元/吨，广西价 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, weather conditions in major production areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and fund flows. It also offers insights into potential impacts on the market based on these factors. 3. Summary by Section Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the BMD palm oil 01 closed at 4495.00 with a - 0.13% daily and - 0.29% overnight change [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are given. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.95 with a 0.34% change [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are reported. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9490 with a basis of 90 and a 0 - change [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are provided. For example, the CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 488 dollars/ton with a 278 - cent/bu premium [2]. Production Area Weather - In the US, the soybean - producing states will have above - normal temperatures and precipitation from October 26 - 30. The Midwest will have limited precipitation from an approaching front, and the rainfall may relieve drought but delay crop harvest [3][5]. - Brazil will be drier this week, which is generally favorable for crops. A front will bring rain later, and the dry weather may allow farmers to plant soybeans quickly [6][7]. International Supply - Demand - SPPOMA reports that Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. AmSpec indicates that the palm oil export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Anec forecasts that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October will be 734 and 209 million tons respectively [10]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year [11]. - Wet weather in Ukraine has damaged sunflower and soybean crops, reducing production forecasts [11][12]. - Australia's August rapeseed exports increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same month in 2024. The 2025/26 crop harvest has just begun [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 1.1% to 2094 points, supported by the increase in Capesize and Panamax freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On October 21, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 59% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate increased slightly [15]. - As of October 21, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 3.1 million tons compared to October 14 [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 21. The prices of various agricultural products showed different changes [15]. Macro - news - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.9%. The annual growth rate of US Redbook retail sales from October 1 - 18 was 5%. The US API crude inventory decreased by 298.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [17]. - Domestic: On October 21, the USD/CNY exchange rate was adjusted downwards by 43 points, and the Chinese central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 685 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows - On October 21, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.172 billion yuan, including 3.152 billion yuan in commodity futures (with a 102 - million - yuan net outflow in agricultural futures, 319 - million - yuan net inflow in chemical futures, 874 - million - yuan net outflow in black - series futures, and 3.808 - billion - yuan net inflow in metal futures), 8.542 billion yuan in stock - index futures, and 385 million yuan in bond futures [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis is expected to have limited downside as new device production nears, approaching risk - free arbitrage, and with some mainstream PTA suppliers reducing device loads. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - For MEG, although there is some replenishment demand at low prices, the fundamental pattern remains weak with obvious oversupply in the long - term. The price is expected to run weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent polyester loads and device changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On the previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. Different delivery periods had different transaction price ranges and basis levels. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 88 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4325, the 01 - contract basis is - 89, and the market is at a premium, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period, showing a bullish situation [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Expectation**: With new device production imminent, the spot basis will continue to weaken, but the downside is limited. The absolute price will follow the cost side in the short term [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price was adjusted at a low level. The night - session was weak, and low - level buying increased. The morning session fluctuated upward, and the afternoon session weakened slightly. The foreign market price also fluctuated at a low level [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4090, the 01 - contract basis is 86, and the market is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.5 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous period, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Expectation**: Although there is some buying support at low prices, the fundamental pattern is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Before the holiday, due to increased demand and rising oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The inventory of POY and FDY decreased rapidly, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The 360 - million - ton load of Yisheng New Materials was fully increased, and the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices were also increased [10]. 3.4 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3.5 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents PTA's production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.6 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays ethylene glycol's production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic impacts, and geopolitical events affecting each commodity. Overall, different commodities are expected to have diverse price trends, with some facing downward pressure due to supply surpluses or weakening demand, while others may experience upward movement supported by demand or supply - side constraints. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products 1. Soybean Meal - The supply pressure of international soybeans remains high, and domestic soybean meal is also expected to decline due to increased supply pressure. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads for arbitrage, and sell call options [17]. 2. Sugar - International sugar prices are in a weak trend with the downward - opened space after breaking the previous low. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market. The strategy is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and conduct short ICE US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage [21]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market may see a slight inventory build - up in October. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil may continue to reduce inventory marginally. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider going long on dips [25]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn may continue to narrow - range fluctuate in the short - term. Domestic new - crop corn supply is increasing, and the spot price has a downward space. The suggestion is to go long on dips for the 12 - contract US corn, hold long positions for the 01 - contract domestic corn, and wait for dips to go long for the 05 and 07 contracts [29]. 5. Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure has improved, and the spot price has a phased rebound. However, the overall supply pressure still exists. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle options [31]. 6. Peanuts - Peanut production may be affected by rainfall, and the 01 - contract peanut may fluctuate strongly in the short - term but overall remains at the bottom. The recommendation is to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [34]. 7. Eggs - The inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The suggestion is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and close out previous short positions to take profits [39]. 8. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The strategy is to go long on a single - side basis, conduct long November and short January for arbitrage [42]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton acquisition is accelerating. The market may face selling - hedging pressure with the large - scale listing of new cotton. The demand improvement is limited. The recommendation is that the US cotton may fluctuate, and domestic cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger. Hold cross - market positive spreads and consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline [46]. Ferrous Metals 1. Steel - The demand pressure persists, but the steel price has a lower valuation and some support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The suggestion is to maintain the range - bound strategy on a single - side basis and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at low prices for arbitrage [49]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply is tight, but the steel mill demand is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [52]. 3. Iron Ore - The market expectation is weak, and the fundamentals have changed. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term on a single - side basis [54]. 4. Ferroalloys - The steel procurement for ferroalloys is weak. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Precious Metals - Due to the loosening of previous positive factors, gold and silver prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. 2. Copper - The macro - environment has changed, and the supply - side disturbances have increased. The consumption is average but has some resilience. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis and hold cross - market positive spreads [64]. 3. Alumina - The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is expected to grind at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the supply - side changes on a single - side basis [69]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - The macro - factors are the main drivers. The consumption has some resilience. The suggestion is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [75]. 5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - panic has improved, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [80]. 6. Zinc - The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. 7. Lead - The supply is gradually recovering, and the price may decline. The suggestion is to hold previous short positions and add short positions at high prices [89]. 8. Nickel - The inventory is increasing, indicating an oversupply. The price is under pressure. The recommendation is to short at the upper limit of the shock range on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle option combinations [90]. 9. Stainless Steel - The demand is weak, and the price is testing the cost support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [94]. Other Commodities 1. Industrial Silicon - The demand from polysilicon may decline in November, and the price is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait for sufficient dips on a single - side basis [95]. 2. Polysilicon - The supply - demand balance will improve in November. It is recommended to buy at dips on a single - side basis, hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [98]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - The demand is strong, and the supply has risks. The price is expected to strengthen. The suggestion is to go long on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. 4. Tin - The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the price is consolidating around the integer level. The market is cautious, and the demand recovery is not good [103]. 5. Shipping - The spot price of container shipping continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations [12]. 6. Energy and Chemicals - Different energy and chemical products have various trends. For example, crude oil is temporarily stable, while some products like PX & PTA and ethylene glycol face supply - demand changes and price fluctuations. Specific trading strategies are provided for each product based on their supply - demand and market conditions [14].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The game between weak reality and policy expectations continues, and the polysilicon futures market fluctuates widely. The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation currently, but there may be a reduction in production in the southwest region at the end of October. The polysilicon market has high inventory pressure, and the price transmission to downstream products is not smooth. However, relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the long - term, which may bring opportunities for the market [1][3][8]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8520 yuan/ton and closed at 8505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-0.93%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 107,518 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 48,851 lots, a decrease of 452 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 9300 - 9400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and the northwest remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 11100 - 11500 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic DMC price may have a small trial increase, but it may be under pressure this week if the actual situation does not meet expectations [1]. Export and Import - In September 2025, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxanes of organic silicon in China was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% and a year - on - year increase of 9.57%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%. The import volume in September 2025 was 7500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.46%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 71,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [2]. Strategy - The current fundamental situation is weak, but production may decrease in the southwest at the end of October. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity withdrawal, the market may rise. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3]. Group 4: Industry Analysis - Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50,210 yuan/ton and closed at 50,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 52,237 lots (56,806 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 121,870 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 51.00 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.30 (a month - on - month change of 5.33%), the silicon wafer inventory was 17.31GW (a month - on - month change of 3.16%), the weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 14.35GW (a month - on - month change of 11.85%) [6]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.70 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. There will be a significant reduction in production in the southwest region in November. The silicon wafer production schedule increased significantly in October, but silicon wafer enterprises are expected to reduce production from November to December according to the association's quota [6]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.32 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamental situation of polysilicon is average, with high inventory pressure. The production reduction in October did not meet expectations, and the price transmission to downstream products was not smooth. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November will suppress the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to go long at low prices. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, with the 11th main contract fluctuating between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton and the 12th contract between 51,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8]. Group 5: Factors to Watch Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production in the northwest and the shutdown in the southwest; changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises; policy disturbances; macro and capital sentiment; and the start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - discipline on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises; the promotion of the spot market by the futures listing; capital sentiment; and policy disturbances [9].