1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold may continue to show a relatively strong consolidation performance. Despite the positive impact of the potential first trade agreement on risk sentiment, the market still worries about the escalation of tariff scale. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand continue to provide support [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 784.54, 790.42, 8154.00, and 8221.00 respectively. They have decreased by - 10.26, - 9.96, - 81.00, and - 85.00 with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.29%, - 1.24%, - 0.98%, and - 1.02% compared to the previous closing prices [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 127407, 51018, 232016, and 108449 respectively, and the trading volumes are 197963, 17040, 274975, and 16641 respectively [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 8.33, 2.45, 67.00, and 0.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold (in USD/ounce), and London Gold (in another form) are 792.87, 796.45, and 3431.105 respectively. They have increased by 13.37, 39.70, and 190.495 with corresponding percentage changes of 1.72%, 5.25%, and 5.88%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D is 8221.00, with an increase of 58.00 (0.71%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in USD/ounce) is 33.21, with an increase of 1.21 (3.78%) [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 5.88, 67, 96.44, 7.19, and 7.70 respectively, compared to the previous values of 5.58, 71, 95.49, 7.48, and 7.93 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver are 15,648 kg, 959,785 kg, 40,607,507 (units), and 501,316,990 (units) respectively. The changes are unchanged, an increase of 96.00 kg, a decrease of - 281,064.04 (units), and an increase of 673016 (units) compared to the previous values [2] Related Data - **Market Indexes and Ratios**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 99.2654, 5606.91, 4.3, 62.04, and 7.2080 respectively, with changes of - 0.53%, - 0.77%, - 1.38%, 0.01%, and 0.10% compared to the previous values [2] - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold are 44315 tons, 44315 tons, 33486, and 32895 respectively, with changes of 1.00 ton, 1.00 ton, an increase of 481, and a decrease of - 1451 compared to the previous values [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: The US and the UK have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, and the US will maintain a unified 10% tariff on UK - imported goods. The UK will further relax market access for US goods. The EU has announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and may restrict imports of US wine, beer, and spirits. The US is about to start the legislative work of a large - scale tax - cut plan [3][4] - **Employment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [4] - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the May meeting. Powell mentioned the rising risks of unemployment and inflation in the future, showing a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the Fed is unlikely to make a clear statement [4]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 09 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 09 日 1、所在领域 固收 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.3%，沪深 300 上涨 0.6%，科创 50 下跌 0.4%，中证 1000 上涨 0.8%，创业板指上涨 1.7%，恒生指数上涨 0.4%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是通信（+2.6%)、国防军工（+2.6%)、电力设备（+1.6%)、银行（+1.1%)、机械 设备（+1.0%)，表现最差的行业分别是美容护理（-1.0%)、有色金属（-0.4%)、钢铁（-0.4%)、石油石化（- 0.3%)、交通运输（-0.2%)。 ❑ 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 12934 亿元，南下资金净流出 23.9 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商固收 覃汉】债券市场专题研究：如何看待 507 一揽子货币政策措 ...

Group 1: Key Insights on Mixue Group - Mixue Group is a leading fresh beverage company in China, owning the fresh tea brand "Mixue Ice City" and the fresh coffee brand "Lucky Coffee" with a global store count of 46,479 by the end of 2024, making it the largest fresh beverage company worldwide [11][12] - The company focuses on the affordable price segment, with core products priced between 2 to 8 RMB, which is lower than some bottled beverages. The top three best-selling products account for over 40% of revenue [11][12] - Mixue Ice City has established the earliest and largest supply chain in the industry, with over 60% of beverage ingredients sourced from its own production, the highest in the industry, ensuring quality and cost control [12][13] - The company aims to build a strong brand connection with consumers through its high-quality and affordable value proposition, becoming a household name and launching the "Snow King" IP to enhance brand recognition [3][12] - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow at compound annual growth rates of 19% and 18% respectively from 2024 to 2027, driven by the opening of new franchise stores [12][13] Group 2: Insights on Konjac Industry - The report highlights the company's ambition to become a leader in the konjac industry, with three main product lines: konjac powder, konjac food, and konjac beauty products, focusing on high-end and refined product development [6][12] - The company has a well-established raw material supply chain and advanced processing capabilities, benefiting from the upgrading trend in the konjac industry, with China being the largest konjac producer globally [6][12] - The konjac food market has significant growth potential, with per capita consumption in China at 0.1 kg compared to 2 kg in Japan, driven by increasing demand from overweight populations, the elderly, and weight loss seekers [6][12] - The company serves major downstream brands and is well-positioned to capture demand during the market expansion phase, with a focus on cost control and product innovation [6][12]

据报道，此次议息会议没有公布新的点阵图和经济预测表，货币政策声明成为唯一的公布文件。联邦公开市场委员会在声明中称，目前美国经济 前景的不确定性进一步加剧，密切关注到其充分就业与稳定物价"双重使命"所面临的风险，并认为失业率上升和通货膨胀加剧的风险均有所增 加。为实现上述使命，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%。 据路透社报道，美联储主席鲍威尔会后在回答记者提问时表示，"关税政策影响的范围、规模以及持续时间都非常不确定。""所以，目前根本不清 楚货币政策的适当应对措施是什么……真的完全不清楚我们应该怎么做。""我认为我们无法判断最终结果会是怎样。"路透社认为，鲍威尔以这种 委婉的方式发声，表明作为塑造美国经济的关键角色，美联储实际上正处于观望状态，直到明确美国贸易政策对经济的影响之后再做出抉择。 鲍威尔不为降息呼声所动 据《纽约时报》报道，美联储在降息上继续保持观望态度，可能会进一步加剧与白宫之间的紧张关系。此前，特朗普曾多次抨击鲍威尔没有听从 其降息的要求。《华尔街日报》称，美国总统通常会与美联储保持一定距离，避免过度干涉，保持其决策的独立性。但当下的美国总统是个例 外，他在竞选期间就曾暗示 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, focusing on the impacts of tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's policies. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact**: The average tariff level in the U.S. has risen to approximately **24%**, reminiscent of the 1910s, significantly pressuring the economy. This increase in tariffs is expected to raise inflation by **1.5% to 2%**, with potential peaks at **2.5%** [1][2][8] - **Economic Transition**: The U.S. economy is anticipated to transition from **stagflation to recession** within the next year. Initially, inflation and economic growth may strengthen, but increasing downward pressure is expected to dominate later [1][5] - **Financial System Resilience**: The overall U.S. financial system is robust enough to absorb tariff shocks, but there are concerns regarding the **private equity market** and **insurance companies' cross-border positions**, which may pose risks due to low transparency and potential forced asset sales [1][4] - **Debt Market Risks**: The peak of corporate debt maturities in **2026** could reveal significant risks if credit spreads remain high, indicating potential financial stress [3][12] - **Market Dynamics**: The U.S. stock market is currently in a **W-shaped** recovery phase, but is expected to face downward pressure due to earnings challenges. Conversely, gold is in an **M-shaped** pattern, with its future performance hinging on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][6][7] Additional Important Insights - **Labor Market Resilience**: Despite a resilient labor market, if the unemployment rate rises to around **5%**, it could signal a substantial recession. A rise to **4.5%** may only indicate recession fears rather than an actual recession [3][11] - **Global Fund Reallocation**: There is a gradual shift in global fund allocation from **overweighting dollar assets** to a more balanced approach, influenced by the recent volatility in U.S. debt, stocks, and currency [3][13][14] - **Manufacturing Sector Performance**: Following the implementation of tariffs on China, the U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped from approximately **60** to around **48**, reflecting the economic impact of trade policies [15] - **Future Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts will likely depend more on market performance than on economic data, with potential cuts being considered in upcoming meetings [17] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current economic landscape, potential risks, and future outlook for the U.S. economy.

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. economy is facing greater shocks due to the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," leading to concerns about rising prices and consumer sentiment [2][3] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with companies adopting a more conservative approach amid policy uncertainty, while inflation expectations continue to rise [2][3] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 52.2 in April, with one-year inflation expectations increasing from 5.0% in March to 6.5% [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is caught in a "dual mandate" dilemma, struggling to balance between supporting employment and controlling inflation due to the adverse effects of tariffs [8][9] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need for more data before making any preemptive rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][8] - The Fed's current policy rate remains restrictive, and any potential rate cuts will depend on the impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation expectations [9][10] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the U.S. economy may transition from "stagflation" to "recession" in the coming quarters, with key economic indicators showing signs of weakness [11] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. government policies and tariffs is eroding market confidence in the long-term economic outlook [6][11] - The potential for a recession is heightened if policy uncertainty continues to suppress economic growth in the second quarter [3][11]

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】 关税加剧滞胀担忧，通胀压力掣肘降息——2025年5月美联储议息会议点评 美东时间 2025 年 5 月 7 日，美联储发布议息会议声明，随后鲍威尔例行召开新闻发布会。 从议息会议 声明和鲍威尔发言中，我们认为主要有五处边际变化：一是美联储按兵不动，但是滞胀预期加剧；二是鲍 威尔不断强调经济前景的不确定性，并认为其与关税前景密切相关；三是鲍威尔认为当前通胀压力主要来 自于关税，而关税谈判存在不确定性；四是鲍威尔给出模糊化的前瞻性指引，维持一如既往偏"鹰"的表 态，但也传递了未来降息的可能性；五是鲍威尔重申美联储的独立性，部分缓解市场担忧。总体来看，本 次美联储议息会议的关键词就是"不确定性"，无论是经济前景、通胀前景，还是降息前景，都充满了不确 定性，而其根源就来自于关税政策的不确定性和关税对经济影响机制的不确定性。 短期经济数据和就业数据韧性进一步延后降息预期，预计后续通胀压力将对降息时间和幅度形成持续掣 肘。 近期公布的美国一季度经济数据和 4 月份非农就业数据仍有一定的韧性，从而整体降息预期有所延 后，叠加鲍威尔的"鹰"派表态，美国联邦基金 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 05 月 08 日 模糊的滞胀预期下，美联储会否全年按兵不动？ ——美联储 FOMC 会议点评（2025.5） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 基于当前仍然稳健的经济和就业表现，以及未来可能出现的滞胀风险，美 联储年初至今连续第三次会议决定维持利率水平不变。当地时间 5 月 7 日下午， 美联储召开本年度第三次 FOMC 会议，在声明中指出"尽管净出口动荡对经 济数据造成影响"，但经济活动仍延续稳健扩张步伐，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上 补充阐述称美国国内最终购买（PDFP）一季度稳定增长 3%，与去年节奏相同； 此外声明认为经济前景的不确定性"进一步"提升，并评估认为"失业率和通 胀同步上行的风险加大"，这意味着美联储当前对美国政府关税政策影响下美 国经济在未来可能走向一定程度的滞胀存有担忧，而滞胀局面一旦出现，美联 储往往需要首先实施一定程度的紧缩，在成功控制通胀预期后才可转而实施宽 松操作。基于上述两方面原因，美联储本次会议连续第三次决定维持利率水平 不变，自年初以来未再降息。鲍威尔在发布会问答环节多次强调当前美联储"不 必着急"，"可以耐心等待"，或为暗示美联储降息的概率和幅度比市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50% and is facing a decision-making dilemma between combating inflation and stabilizing employment, with potential for 1-3 rate cuts within the year totaling 25-75 basis points [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The U.S. economy is currently in a solid expansion phase, with low unemployment rates and a robust job market [3][5]. - Inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Federal Reserve is committed to achieving maximum employment and restoring inflation to 2% [3][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% and will closely monitor economic indicators, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to determine future policy adjustments [3][5]. - The Fed is cautious about the risks associated with its dual mandate of employment and inflation, acknowledging that both unemployment and inflation risks have risen [5][6]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a strategy of buying long-duration U.S. Treasuries on dips and shorting the dollar on rallies [2][8]. - The market is currently neutral, with expectations for rate cuts being tempered, and the probability of a June rate cut has decreased to around 20% [7][8].

隔夜，现货黄金下跌近2%，日内最高触及3437.49美元，最低触及3359.78美元，最终收报于3364.67美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续跌势，目前在3342美 元附近徘徊。 鲍威尔打脸特朗普！ 隔夜，美股三大股指全线上涨，截至收盘，道指涨0.7%，报41113.97点；标普500指数涨0.43%，报5631.28点；纳指涨0.27%，报17738.16点。 消息面上，鲍威尔"鸽派"表态提振美股市场。 北京时间5月8日凌晨2点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率区间维持在4.25%—4.5%不变。这是美联储连续第三次议息会议按兵不动。 随后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话也释放了诸多政策信号。他表示，美联储不急于行动，未来可能会出现适合降息或按兵不动的情形。 可以说，美联储的决定，再次让特朗普失望。 当前，白宫发言人、英国驻华盛顿大使馆尚未对此发表评论。 2025年以来，特朗普多次高频次公开喊话，呼吁降息。不过，对于特朗普的反复喊话和威胁，鲍威尔表示，特朗普呼吁降息对美联储没有影响。 真的是又硬又刚，直接打脸特朗普。 分析称，鲍威尔的讲话整体偏"鸽派"，保留了未来降息的可能性，且缓解了市场对美联储独立性的担忧。 ...