Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach amid rising risks of both unemployment and inflation, suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the increased risks of higher unemployment and inflation, reflecting a dual mandate concern [2] - Despite these risks, economic data remains robust, with low unemployment and ongoing consumer spending and business investment, leading to a wait-and-see approach [3] - The Fed is unlikely to initiate rate cuts in the short term, especially not preemptively, as current conditions do not warrant immediate action [3] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Two potential scenarios for future rate cuts are outlined: 1. If trade negotiations fail and tariffs remain high, the Fed may be forced into a "recession-style" rate cut, potentially reducing rates by 100 basis points by year-end [4] 2. If trade negotiations yield positive results, rate cuts may be delayed until December, with a more moderate reduction expected [5] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations adds complexity to the Fed's decision-making process, with the current macroeconomic environment being less favorable for capital markets [5]

FOMC在声明中加入的新措辞指出，"关于经济前景的不确定性进一步上升，失业率上升与通胀走高的 风险都在加剧。"声明未直接提及关税，但显然这一政策已成为影响货币政策路径的主要变量。 智通财经APP获悉，在为期两天的政策会议结束后，美联储周三宣布维持基准联邦基金利率在 4.25%-4.5%区间不变。这一决定得到了联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)全体成员一致通过，反映出政策制 定者在面临不确定性不断上升的经济环境下，采取了"观望为主"的立场。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上明确表示，联储目前并不急于调整利率。"我们认为自己正处于 一个可以'等待与观察'的恰当位置。没有必要匆忙采取行动，现在保持耐心是合适的。" 关税带来三重威胁 鲍威尔指出，特朗普政府宣布的大幅加征关税措施若持续，可能带来三重经济风险，即通胀上升、经济 放缓与失业率上升。"关税可能导致价格一次性上升，但也不排除其对通胀的影响会更持久。" 同时，美联储继续按3月会议决定的步调缩减资产负债表。每月可到期不再再投资的国债上限维持在50 亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)上限为350亿美元。 通胀与就业目标面临冲突 市场预期分歧仍大 年内降息路径未明 当前 ...

城堡创始人Ken Griffin：美联储对美国经济形势的描述激发滞胀（顾虑）。 在我看来，美国发生滞胀的风险是温和的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy statement is more hawkish than expected, indicating concerns about stagflation and uncertainty regarding tariffs [1] Group 1 - Spartan Capital Securities' chief market economist, Peter Cardillo, notes that the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1] - The Fed's statement suggests a strong commitment to remain on hold until more information is available regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - The current Fed meeting is characterized by significant uncertainty, highlighting the challenges faced by policymakers in navigating economic conditions [1]

继续缩表。 要点： 美联储连续三次会议暂停降息，符合市场预期。 声明称，经济不确定性"进一步"增加，新增语句"失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已增加"。 声明重申最近指标显示经济活动仍稳健扩张，但指出净出口波动已影响数据。 本次决议得到全体FOMC票委支持，未像上次有一人反对。 "新美联储通讯社"：联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。 美国总统特朗普再次失望。尽管他一再喊话呼吁降息，美联储还是选择观望，并未降息，还暗示特朗普的政策有引发滞胀的风险。 美东时间5月7日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间保持4.25%至4.5%不变。这是美联储连续第三次货币政策会议 决定暂停行动。联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，自今年1月特朗普上任以来，联储一直暂停行动。 本次美联储暂停降息完全在市场意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）的工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周保持利率不变的概率超过95%，6月也不 降息的概率超过68%，7月约有77%的概率降息。周三美联储决议公布前，衍生品市场定价显示，交易员削减降息押注，预计从7月开始，今年约有三次25 个基点的降息。 上 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，Inflation Insights的分析师Omair Sharif认为，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的声明 清楚表明美联储如今对滞胀感到担忧。他表示："考虑到关税因素，看起来通胀上升的可能性要比失业 率上升的可能性更大。这会引发关于通胀是否是暂时性的争论。" 分析师：美联储声明暴露滞胀担忧 ...

查尔斯·施瓦布固定收益主管凯西·琼斯：美联储可能暗示滞胀的环境。 ...

Moneta Markets亿汇认为，美联储在5月的政策会议上启动讨论，市场普遍预期此次会议不会降息，而未来会议降息的可能性也较低。根 据摩根大通的分析，美联储官员在货币政策上可能受到两方面因素的制约。 Moneta Markets亿汇认为，尽管市场对滞胀的担忧有所增加，但投资者仍未充分反映经济增长放缓的预期。摩根大通认为："尽管经济衰退 仍有可能避免，但如果真的发生，许多投资者认为市场已经反映了这种风险的观点可能过于乐观。" Moneta Markets亿汇总结称，美联储目前正面临复杂的宏观经济环境，通胀预期上升和经济衰退风险的不确定性使其在货币政策上陷入两 难境地。尽管特朗普呼吁降息，但美联储可能需要在更多数据支持和明确的经济衰退信号出现后，才能采取行动。投资者需密切关注美联 储的政策动态以及经济数据的变化，以评估未来市场的风险。 Moneta Markets亿汇分析称，通胀预期的上升是美联储难以降息的重要原因之一。最新消费者通胀报告显示，3月通胀同比上升2.4%，高 于美联储2%的目标。而密歇根大学编制的一年期通胀预期更是高达6.5%。这一数据表明，市场对未来通胀的担忧正在加剧。 Moneta Mark ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC商品策略研究 CFC商品策略研究 . Sell in May的预言并未完全兑现，美国1季度GDP创下三年最低，但服务业PMI和就业数据或存在托底，风偏回归。笔者仍旧坚持"浅衰退+高利 率"之下，商品的反弹有限，以至于空头等反弹的布局仍旧是占优逻辑。 几点归纳： 1、美国2025年第一季度GDP下降0.3%，为三年来首次收缩，但美国风险偏好强势回归（美国股市大多反弹3%），其驱动在于ISM制造业指 数再度低迷但超预期（公布值48.7，预期47.9），此外非农就业虽超预期增长17.7万人，暗示美国经济内生动力尚未全面恶化。目前处在"增 长放缓但未全面衰退"的过渡期，短期内硬数据韧性延缓恐慌情绪，但关税引发的供应链扰动、成本上升及政策不确定性可能加剧二季度下行 风险。 2、风偏回暖促成"铜金比价"的阶段性修复，2025年全年降息幅度预期为3次，首次降息时点或推迟至6月或7月（5月8日利率决议）。4月非 农韧性阶段性证伪"深度衰退"叙事，强化"浅衰退+高利率"组合对贵金属的压制。随后跌破3300美元关键心理关口，引发趋势跟随性抛盘。 但若经济数据证实衰退深化且通胀回落，黄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The April Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, reaching a three - month low; the Caixin China Services PMI also dropped 1.2 percentage points to 50.7, the lowest since Q4 2024 [1] - The global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for two consecutive months, indicating increased downward pressure on the global economy [1] - "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said Trump's tariff policies might put the Fed in a lose - lose situation, and the Fed is expected to maintain a wait - and - see stance on interest rate cuts [1] - China's attitude towards the US - China tariff war is clear: ready to fight if necessary and willing to talk [2] - China and the European Parliament have decided to cancel restrictions on mutual exchanges [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Hot News - The April Caixin China Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI both declined, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.4 and the services PMI at 50.7 [1] - The global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for two consecutive months [1] - Trump's tariff policies may pose challenges to the Fed, and the Fed will likely maintain a wait - and - see stance on interest rate cuts [1] - China's attitude towards the US - China tariff war is "fight if necessary, talk if possible", and China and the European Parliament will cancel restrictions on mutual exchanges [2] 3.2 Plate Performance - Key areas to focus on include crude oil, Shanghai gold, asphalt oil, coking coal, and urea [3] - In the night session, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.59%, the grain sector 1.77%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector 2.69% [3] 3.3 Plate Capital Occupancy - The capital occupancy ratios of different commodity sectors are as follows: precious metals 30.03%, oilseeds and oils 12.13%, soft commodities 3.20%, non - ferrous metals 19.39%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 12.87%, energy 2.66%, and chemicals 12.68% [4] 3.4 Plate Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures plate positions in the past five days, but specific data is not clearly described [5] 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13% daily, 1.13% monthly, and was down 1.06% year - to - date; the S&P 500 was down 0.77% daily, up 0.68% monthly, and down 4.67% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.70% daily, 2.46% monthly, and 12.97% year - to - date [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury futures were flat daily, up 0.04% monthly, and up 0.11% year - to - date; the 5 - year Treasury futures were down 0.04% daily and monthly, and down 0.45% year - to - date [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index rose 1.35% daily, 1.20% monthly, and was down 1.51% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 3.43% daily, 1.55% monthly, and was down 17.84% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 5.88% daily, 4.34% monthly, and 30.75% year - to - date [7] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index was down 0.53% daily, 0.38% monthly, and 8.50% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, down 4.29% monthly, and up 36.25% year - to - date [7]