Group 1 - The Trump administration acknowledges its inability to effectively counter China, as evidenced by the increasing negative impacts of the tariff war on the U.S. economy, with 12 states calling for the removal of all tariffs on China [1][3][6] - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio admits that the Trump administration's efforts to pressure China have failed, highlighting the strength of the Chinese government and the ineffectiveness of the "maximum pressure" strategy [3][6] - The tariff war has led to significant consequences for American companies, exemplified by Wolfspeed, a semiconductor firm facing bankruptcy due to the inability to collaborate with Chinese companies under the "Chip Act" [6][8] Group 2 - The lawsuit initiated by 12 states against the Trump administration claims that the global tariff war violates U.S. law, as it was implemented without Congressional approval, indicating a potential shift in political support for Trump [6][8] - Elon Musk, distancing himself from Trump, emphasizes China's rapid growth in electricity generation, suggesting that the U.S. is lagging behind not only in manufacturing but also in high-tech fields like AI [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing trade tensions between the US and its global partners, particularly focusing on the imposition of tariffs and the negotiation dynamics between the US and the EU [1][3][8] - The US has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on all EU products, which prompted immediate communication between the EU Commission and the US President, indicating the US's strategic advantage in negotiations [1][3] - The EU is preparing to concede on the issue of the 10% basic "reciprocal tariff" due to the fear of the US imposing the higher 50% tariff, showcasing the pressure the US is exerting on its trade partners [3][8] Group 2 - France stands out as the only EU member opposing the 10% "reciprocal tariff," reflecting internal divisions within the EU regarding how to respond to US trade policies [3][5] - The ongoing tensions have led to a perception that the EU is increasingly aligning with US strategic interests, which has caused dissatisfaction in France and highlighted the differing positions between France and Germany [5][6] - China's previous successful countermeasures against US tariffs have inspired France's strong stance against US demands, indicating a shift in how countries perceive their negotiating power in the face of US trade aggression [8][9]

·多家国际投行上调中国经济增速预期 ·坚持多劳者多得、体现技高者多得三部门：加大国企技能人才薪酬分配激励 ·破除"内卷式"竞争剑指无序"价格战" 中国汽车工业协会呼吁行业健康发展 ·特朗普称将把美国进口钢材关税从目前的25%上调至50% ·美国务院要求对哈佛大学相关签证申请人进行额外审查 ·欧元区货币供应量增长加速 4月广义货币供应量年增长率上升至3.9% ·高盛、摩根大通等多家国际投行近日表示，随着中国宏观政策落地显效，中美经贸会谈取得实质性进展，决定上调对2025年中国经济增速预测。其中，高 盛上调0.6个百分点，摩根大通上调0.7个百分点，摩根士丹利上调0.3个百分点，野村上调0.5个百分点。（新华社） ·日前，人力资源社会保障部、财政部、国务院国资委联合印发《关于加大国有企业技能人才薪酬分配激励的通知》。《通知》强调，优化技能岗位薪酬分 配，坚持多劳者多得，实行岗位薪酬与岗位价值、技能等级双挂钩办法，合理确定技能岗位的起点薪酬，提出按照一般不低于相应职级管理岗位的薪酬标准 科学确定技能岗位薪级档次。强调设立技能人才专项津贴，实行与技能等级挂钩的能级津贴制度，明确相应的津贴标准，体现技高者多得。（新华财 ...

Report Overview - Date: May 30, 2025 - Report Type: Financial Futures Daily Report - Issuer: Everbright Futures 1. Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Oscillating [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: On May 29, the A - share market rebounded significantly, with the Wind All - A index rising 1.17% and trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The TMT and pharmaceutical biological sectors led the rebound. Although the economic data in April declined compared to March, it remained resilient. The social retail sales year - on - year rate was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement and recent policy announcements, such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market, are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main line for the equity index in 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 29, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 266 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will follow the changes in the capital and economic fundamentals. The bond market is in a sideways oscillation pattern after adjustment. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [3]. 3. Daily Price Changes 3.1 Equity Index Futures and Stock Indices | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,673.6 | 2,665.4 | 8.2 | 0.31% | | IF | 3,832.8 | 3,805.0 | 27.8 | 0.73% | | IC | 5,668.6 | 5,568.0 | 100.6 | 1.81% | | IM | 6,031.0 | 5,899.0 | 132.0 | 2.24% | | SSE 50 | 2,690.9 | 2,683.1 | 7.8 | 0.29% | | SSE 300 | 3,858.7 | 3,836.2 | 22.5 | 0.59% | | CSI 500 | 5,719.9 | 5,637.2 | 82.7 | 1.47% | | CSI 1000 | 6,089.6 | 5,984.5 | 105.1 | 1.76% | [4] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.35 | 102.40 | - 0.054 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.87 | 106.02 | - 0.15 | - 0.14% | | T | 108.48 | 108.73 | - 0.255 | - 0.23% | | TL | 118.69 | 119.40 | - 0.71 | - 0.59% | [4] 4. Market News - On May 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated in response to a question from AFP that in the tariff issue, China has repeatedly clarified its stance that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [5]. 5. Chart Analysis 5.1 Equity Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures contract [7][8][9][10][11] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report displays the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates among major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27] 6. Team Members - Zhu Jintao, Master of Economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on equity index futures, macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [29]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% reflects the complexities and uncertainties in the current U.S. economic landscape, particularly influenced by the ongoing trade war and its impact on inflation and economic growth [1][3][4] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. economic outlook is increasingly uncertain, with rising unemployment and inflation risks [3] - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging dilemma between controlling inflation and stimulating economic growth due to the conflicting pressures from the trade war [3][4] Group 2: Impact of Trade War - The trade war has led to increased prices for imported goods, contributing to domestic inflationary pressures [3][4] - The trade war negatively impacts U.S. exports and manufacturing, resulting in slowed economic growth [3][4] Group 3: Need for Data-Driven Decisions - The Federal Reserve requires more data to find a balance between controlling inflation and stimulating economic growth [4] - The decision-making process reflects the broader complexities of global economic conditions and the far-reaching effects of trade policy changes [4]

Group 1 - The U.S.-Japan trade relationship is under strain due to the U.S. imposing a 24% tariff on Japanese automobiles and parts, which has led to a 37% drop in Japan's monthly exports of cars to the U.S. and a direct economic loss exceeding $12 billion [1][3] - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. reached $68 billion in 2023, while its trade deficit with other countries was $82 billion, highlighting a structural imbalance that necessitates a reevaluation of Japan's economic dependencies [1][3] - Japanese companies are responding to the tariff impacts by increasing foreign investments, such as Toyota's $5 billion investment in foreign markets over the next three years, focusing on the electric vehicle supply chain [3] Group 2 - The Japanese government is considering joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as an alternative strategy, indicating a shift towards regional economic cooperation [3] - There is a growing concern within Japan's political and business circles about the sustainability of relying heavily on the U.S. for security while facing economic challenges, suggesting a potential pivot towards more pragmatic foreign relations [3] - The ongoing tariff conflict may serve as a turning point for Japan to adopt a more realistic diplomatic approach, moving away from the traditional "security first" mindset [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that the US court's ruling against imposing comprehensive tariffs has led to market optimism regarding the end of the trade war, resulting in a rise in US stock markets and a halt to the five-day decline in A-shares [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index opened lower but rebounded significantly, closing up 315 points or 1.4%, with notable increases in major blue-chip stocks such as Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Industry Dynamics - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, expressed intentions to strengthen ties with the Middle East market, highlighting the potential for collaboration in various financial products, including bonds and derivatives, following the listing of the first Saudi Islamic bond ETF in Hong Kong [6] - The CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, Charles Li, noted the growing momentum for connectivity between Hong Kong and Middle Eastern markets, with significant cooperation already established across various sectors [7] Group 3: Company News - New World Development is in the process of securing an HKD 87.5 billion refinancing deal, which has garnered significant attention from Hong Kong bankers, with at least 12 banks agreeing to terms so far [10] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group reported a year-on-year decrease of 8.36% in net profit for the first quarter, with total revenue down 21.91%, primarily due to the impact of government policies on drug pricing [11] - Meizhong Pharmaceutical announced a placement of 18.6 million new H-shares at a discount of 19.7% to raise HKD 100 million for various operational needs [12]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Sector - The Trump family has penetrated the cryptocurrency sector, launching the "World Freedom Finance" project in 2024, raising $550 million, with family-controlled DT Marks DeFi LLC holding 60% equity and earning 75% of net income [3] - The USD1 stablecoin, adopted by the Abu Dhabi sovereign fund, generates millions in indirect revenue annually [3] - In January 2025, meme coins associated with Trump and his family generated $11.4 million in revenue, with fans spending a total of $148 million on "Trump Coin" for a chance to dine with him, leading to an estimated profit of at least $350 million from cryptocurrency ventures [3][4] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - The Trump Organization expanded its real estate empire during the tariff war, partnering with countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia on projects such as a $5.5 billion luxury golf resort and high-end residential projects in Dubai and Jeddah [5] - These collaborations, while appearing commercially driven, coincided with U.S. policy shifts favoring Middle Eastern allies, raising concerns about "political trust monetization" [5] - Regulatory changes during the Trump administration facilitated real estate capital operations, allowing for more flexible cross-border financing and project leverage [5] Group 3: Financial Speculation - The tariff war created a lucrative environment for financial speculation, with Trump signaling a "buy" just hours before announcing a suspension of "reciprocal tariffs," resulting in a $415 million increase in wealth from a 53% stake in TMTG [6] - The family fund's earlier investment in $37 billion in NASDAQ put options, combined with short positions on tech stocks, yielded significant profits amid market volatility caused by tariff policies [6] - Legal controversies arose regarding potential insider trading, as the arbitrary nature of tariff policies was seen as creating opportunities for profit at the expense of the public [6] Group 4: Political and Economic Implications - The intertwining of political power and commercial interests has led to significant ethical concerns, with accusations of market manipulation through cryptocurrency projects and real estate partnerships [6][7] - The tariff war's repercussions have resulted in substantial losses for American farmers, estimated at over $12 billion annually, contrasting sharply with the Trump family's cryptocurrency gains [7] - The narrative of wealth accumulation by the Trump family reflects broader systemic issues within American capitalism, raising questions about the fairness of public policy when political influence can be converted into economic gain [8]

Group 1 - The international gold price has retreated from a historical high of $3,500 per ounce, and experts predict three potential scenarios for future price movements: stability, decline, or increase [1][3] - A critical date to watch is June 17, when the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, with a low probability of rate adjustment (5.6%) according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, suggesting a likely stable gold price [3] - If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it could lead to a decrease in gold prices due to reduced attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold [5] Group 2 - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut amid weak economic data and ongoing trade tensions, gold prices may experience a new upward trend [7] - A weaker US dollar could stimulate demand for gold, with the potential for prices to reach new highs [8] - Key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's statements regarding US inflation and employment, as well as the status of the US dollar index and treasury yields, which are closely linked to the gold market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's tariff policies are illegal, specifically those implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and ordered the cessation of these measures [1][2][5]. Group 1: Court Ruling - The court's ruling prohibits the Trump administration from executing tariff measures based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1][2]. - The ruling states that if these tariff orders are deemed illegal for the plaintiffs, they are illegal for everyone [3]. Group 2: Implications for Trade Policy - The ruling represents a significant judicial setback for the Trump administration, potentially undermining the legal foundation of its tariff strategy during the second term [5]. - Experts believe that the ruling complicates ongoing negotiations with trade partners, as it may lead them to halt further concessions until the legal situation is clarified [5]. - The ruling grants foreign governments new leverage in trade negotiations against the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Government Response - The White House criticized the ruling, claiming that trade deficits constitute a national emergency that should not be decided by unelected judges [6]. - The Trump administration has already appealed the court's decision, questioning the court's authority [6]. Group 4: Ongoing Legal Challenges - There are at least five pending lawsuits related to Trump's tariff policies, initiated by small businesses and several states, arguing that the government lacks the authority to impose such tariffs without congressional approval [7].