2025 年 7 月 18 日 商 品 研 究 焦炭：一轮提涨落地，宽幅震荡 焦煤：宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2509 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 918.5 | 涨跌(元/吨) 21.5 | 流跌幅 2. 40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1519 | 24. 5 | 1.64% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 992915 | 551465 | -10542 | | | | J2509 | 23460 | 44754 | -534 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 950 | 950 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1150 | 1150 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Market focuses on Sanfangxiang's production progress, supply remains tight. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. Pay attention to long - term PXN compression positions. Supply - demand is stable in July, spreads are expected to be strong. Aromatics are overvalued relative to oil products, with declining blending margins and increasing oil product supply - demand pressure in Q4 [8]. - PTA: Market concerns include whether Sanfangxiang's production will be postponed due to low processing fees and if Yisheng will increase production cuts. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. In 01 contract, long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA. Supply increases while demand decreases, with Sanfangxiang's new PTA plant progress being a key factor [8]. - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plants have reduced operations, potentially affecting future imports. Imports are expected to decline to 63 - 58 million tons per month from July to August. It is in a bullish - biased sideways market, and positive spreads in calendar spreads are recommended when spreads are low [9]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - PX: An East China refinery reduced its load due to a fault, and Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical in China reduced the operating rate of its reforming and crude distillation units. Crude oil futures weakened on July 17, and the spot premium between September and October widened [2][3][5]. - PTA: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. By Thursday, the PTA load reached 79.7%, and the operating rate was around 85.8% [6]. - MEG: As of July 17, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 66.2% (down 1.37% from the previous period). A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement, expected to last about a month [6]. - Polyester: The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained mostly stable this week. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 74%. The overall polyester load was volatile, and the load in mainland China was around 88.5% [6]. Market Sales - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales on July 17 were still weak, with an average sales rate of over 40% by 3:30 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was average, with an average sales rate of 48% by 3:00 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Fundamental Data - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had different closing prices, price changes, and price change rates on the previous day. Their calendar spreads also showed price changes compared to the day before [2]. - Spot: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent had different prices and price changes on the previous day compared to the day before. Spot processing fees also had corresponding changes [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish bias but limited trading opportunity [1] - Bottle Chips: Not specified [1] - Urea: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: Not specified [1] - Plastic: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - PTA: Not specified [1] - Short Fibre: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] Core Views - The methanol market is supported by inland supply, but demand is entering the off - season [2]. - The short - term supply - demand of the domestic urea market is expected to be loose, and the market is likely to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. - The polyolefin market has supply recovery and weak demand issues [4]. - The pure benzene market has a weak cost support and supply pressure, with seasonal improvement expected in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [5]. - The styrene market has sufficient supply and poor spot trading [6]. - The polyester market has different situations for PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibre and bottle chips, with various supply - demand and profit conditions [7]. - The PVC market has increased supply and weak demand, while the caustic soda market has profit improvement but high - price sales issues [8]. - The glass market has better supply - demand than soda ash, and the glass - soda ash spread is expected to continue to strengthen [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and ports are rapidly accumulating inventory. Some enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. Downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and production enterprise inventory has little change [2]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuate strongly. Daily production decreases slightly, supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Production enterprise inventory is transferred to downstream and ports, with enterprises de - stocking and ports stocking up quickly. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures fluctuate narrowly and are weak. PE supply will recover as some devices restart, and demand from North China's agricultural film has limited impact. PP has many maintenance devices providing support, but off - season demand is weak [4]. Pure Benzene - The price of benzene is weak. Cost support is weakening, domestic production is increasing slightly, and port supplies are abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the second half of Q3, but pressure in Q4. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [5]. Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures opens low and fluctuates narrowly. The cost - end crude oil market has a multi - empty game. Styrene has high operating loads and increasing port inventory, and downstream procurement is on - demand [6]. Polyester - PX and PTA fluctuate. PX supply - demand improves, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has a drive to repair the processing spread. Ethylene glycol prices rise due to port de - stocking and unstable overseas devices. Short fibre has a slight de - stocking and profit repair. Bottle chips enterprises cut production, but inventory increases slightly [7]. Chlor - alkali - PVC fluctuates narrowly. Manufacturers de - stock slightly, but social inventory increases. New devices are put into operation, and downstream orders are insufficient. Caustic soda fluctuates strongly, with profit improvement driving device restart, but high - price sales are poor [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass runs strongly, with inventory decreasing and downstream restocking. It is expected to fluctuate with the macro - mood. Soda ash runs strongly, but the spot market is weak, with high supply and inventory. The glass - soda ash spread is expected to strengthen [9]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-07-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7284 | -59 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 284912 | -78678 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 399614 | 8249 9月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 7221 | -42 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 182446 | -21932 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -27055 | -2627 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 426669 | 10876 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 0 | -7245 -2 | | 现货市场 | | 7946 | -10 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 896 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The downstream glass market's recovery boosts the sentiment of the soda ash market, but the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1208 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1195 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 13 yuan, with a decline of - 0.49%, - 0.42%, and - 7.14% respectively compared with the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China joint - soda process is - 113.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 70.89 tons, including 40.01 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity of 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned new production capacity of 750 tons in 2025 (with 100 tons actually put into production) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.84 tons, and the operating rate is 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide is 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

多晶硅：市场消息持续性发酵 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 2025 年 07 月 17 日 工业硅：市场情绪发酵，关注上行空间 期货研究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 8,685 | -100 | 545 | 1,315 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 1,111,567 -305,331 | | -41,879 | 604,288 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 379,848 | -16,805 | -19,181 | 56,485 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2508收盘价（元/吨） | 42,945 | 475 | 3,675 | - | | | | PS2508成交量（手） | 449,860 | -115,886 | -344,604 | - | | | | PS2508持仓量（手） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.83% to 14,525 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday [5]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and the terminal demand has entered the off - season. After the previous negative expectations were gradually digested, the futures price has entered a volatile recovery trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract's decline slowed down, with the price slightly down 0.13% to 11,405 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday [7]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving up the output and capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber. The downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and the terminal demand has entered the off - season. After the negative factors were digested by the price correction, the decline of the futures price has slowed down [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 淡季特征未退，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面弱势运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹产量再度下降，供应有所收缩但依旧处于年 内高位，且品种吨钢利润较好，压力缓解有限。同时，螺纹需求季节性弱势，高频需求指标均走 弱，且位于近年来同期低位，淡季需求特征未退，弱势需求继续承压钢价。总之，螺纹钢基本面延 续季节性弱势，淡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Although the short - term glass market has intense long - short competition, considering the marginal support of supply reduction and the unchanged medium - term upward trend of the futures main contract, if the price stabilizes at the key support level, one can try to go long; otherwise, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Stock Index Futures: It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level during the delivery week [7]. - Gold: Despite the adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. - Iron Ore: With the improvement of the macro - environment, high iron - water production, and the positive feedback repair of the industrial chain, it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. - Methanol: As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, so it should be shorted with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Glass - Fundamental: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. The social inventory of glass has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold repair of production lines such as Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support for supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industrial News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for glass enterprises to reduce inventory and subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a light position. The short - selling power of glass is concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract show a decreasing trend, and market divergence has intensified [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures This week is the delivery week of stock index futures. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a correction in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore The improvement of the macro - environment has increased risk appetite. With good steel - mill profits, iron - water production remains at a high level, and the industrial chain is in a state of positive feedback repair. Technically, it continued to rise today, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals, and recent trends are more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it fluctuated within a narrow range today, and the lower support is effective, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Methanol As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 tons. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate this week, and it should be shorted with a light position [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for PVC [1] 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to experience a downward trend in the short - term and remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply - side pressure exists due to upcoming new capacity and limited further decline in the operating rate. The demand side is weak as the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and export is restricted by policies and seasons. The high - price spot transactions are difficult, and the inventory pressure is large [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and it is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate is low, and procurement is cautious. The BIS policy in India is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. The social inventory has increased, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although the PVC maintenance is increasing in July, the operating rate is expected to have limited room for further decline, and new capacity is about to be put into production. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract decreased by 1.14% to close at 4934 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22748 hands in open interest to 982527 hands. The lowest price was 4922 yuan/ton, and the highest was 4978 yuan/ton, staying above the 20 - day moving average [2] Basis - On July 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4785 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2509 contract was 4934 yuan/ton. The basis was - 149 yuan/ton, strengthening by 16 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97% due to the maintenance of some devices. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into production in 2025, and about 110,000 tons/year is expected to be put into production in July. On the demand side, from January to June 2025, the real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas all decreased significantly year - on - year. The investment and sales growth rates further declined. The 30 - city commercial housing transaction area decreased by 37.32% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 10, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.37% to 623,600 tons, 34.15% lower than the same period last year, but still at a relatively high level [4][5]