北京时间周四20:15，欧洲央行几乎肯定会再次降息，并为后续会议保留所有政策选项，但其长达一年 的宽松周期面临暂停的呼声已经越来越高。 随着通胀从疫情后的高点回落，欧洲央行在13个月内已七次降息，试图支撑即便在美国经济与贸易政策 动荡带来又一打击前就已疲软的欧元区经济。 鉴于当前通胀已稳妥贴近2%的目标，且多位政策制定者已释放降息信号，周四的决定料将毫无争议， 焦点将集中在欧洲央行行长加德在20:45的新闻发布会上可能传递的未来政策信号上。 德意志银行分析师在一份报告中指出："要让鹰派支持6月降息，可能需要有条件的耐心暗示：只要在此 期间没有出现重大的下行意外，就暗示愿意在7月暂停降息，等到9月再降息。" 降息与暂停之争：短中长期前景的撕裂 在过去七次降息决策中，由26人组成的欧洲央行管理委员会内部几乎没有摩擦。但现在一些人希望这是 最后一次降息，因担心欧洲各国政府将出现支出过剩；另一些人则希望有更多的资金来支撑脆弱的经济 增长。 暂停降息的理由基于这样一个前提：这个20国联盟的短期和中期前景差异巨大，可能需要不同的政策应 对。 通胀短期内可能回落，甚至可能低于欧洲央行目标，但支出增加和贸易壁垒提高可能在后期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impact of trade wars on emerging market central banks is more severe than that of the COVID-19 pandemic according to Gita Gopinath, the First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF [1] Group 1 - Trade wars are causing significant challenges for emerging markets, potentially leading to tighter monetary policies [1] - The comparison highlights the ongoing economic strain faced by these markets in the current geopolitical climate [1] - Gopinath's statement underscores the urgency for policymakers in emerging markets to adapt to these challenges [1]

持正常的生产。美国汽车零部件厂商的动作，已经让美国共和党政府非常的尴尬，因为美国发动的贸易 战，正在推动美国厂商回到中国，而不是回流到美国。美国"华尔街日报"就有报道，美国已经有多家汽 车部件厂商在考虑未来的产业布局，包括将部分关键零部件在中国生产。 让制造业回流到美国，是美国发动对于中国贸易战的目标之一，然而如今看来，美国发动的贸易战，已 经是求锤得锤。美国在2018年就已经发动了针对中国的贸易战，当时的美国共和党政府也是通过关税的 方式，试图削弱中国产品的竞争力，同时还对中国进行了高科技领域的制裁，从而试图维持对于中国的 优势地位。美国在2018年提出了制造业回流美国的战略，贸易战以及关税战是在为美国的战略服务，进 入2025年以来，随着美国共和党再次执政，美国的关税战已经处于了歇斯底里的状态。 对于美国在多个领域围堵和遏制中国，中国开始了反制，包括对于稀土的出口管制，从而直接卡住了美 国的脖子。稀土对于现代工业的作用非常明显，小小的电磁铁都需要稀土材料，尤其是在新能源汽车大 规模发展的时候，稀土就成为了必要的材料。美国原本有着发达的汽车产业，如今美国的汽车产业不得 不面对中国卡住美国脖子的现状，为此就有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3][4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Do not chase short positions due to the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price trading volume of polyethylene [2]. - Long - term: There is still pressure on LLDPE as the supply pressure is large with new PE plant capacities in 2025 and the demand is weak [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 was 7049, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The trading volume was 344,165, and the open interest decreased by 10,950 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 09 contract was - 49 (previous day: 37), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 31 (previous day: 27) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In North China, the price was 7000 yuan/ton; in East China, it was 7100 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 7230 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - LLDPE market prices fluctuated between 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated upwards, boosting the market trading atmosphere. Some ex - factory prices of PetroChina in the Northwest and Northeast were adjusted, while most others remained stable. Traders tentatively raised prices, and end - users made purchases at low prices [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The trade war has increased global trade uncertainty, but the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price trading volume of polyethylene suggest not to chase short positions [2]. - **Supply - demand**: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new PE plant capacity in China is 2.05 million tons, resulting in large supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance plans in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, with the overall operating rate decreasing by 1.07% compared to the previous period, and the demand will continue to decline. The demand for packaging films is average, with the operating rate decreasing by 0.59%. Downstream factories have phased low - price restocking, but the continuous restocking strength is insufficient [2]. - **Capacity Switch**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. As the HDPE inventory continues to decline and the price difference widens, there may be a capacity switch between the two. Some plants have already started to switch production, and if full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2].

Core Viewpoint - China has implemented a tracking system for the rare earth magnet industry as part of its export control policies, indicating a potential long-term strategy to regulate exports and maintain its dominant position in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The tracking system requires producers to submit additional information online, including transaction volumes and customer names [1]. - China has previously announced export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earth elements in response to U.S. tariffs, which have disrupted global supply chains for automotive and semiconductor industries [3][4]. - The German automotive industry has expressed concerns about potential production delays due to these export controls, highlighting the critical role of rare earth magnets in various automotive components [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - China accounts for over 60% of global rare earth production and 92% of refined supply, emphasizing its monopoly in this sector [6]. - Delays in approvals for rare earth exports have already led to production halts in some automotive manufacturing lines, as companies struggle to secure necessary components [3][4]. - The urgency for alternative solutions is growing among international diplomats and industry leaders, as they seek to mitigate the impact of China's export restrictions [4]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - Analysts suggest that China's export controls serve as a strategic leverage point in its trade relations with the U.S., particularly in the context of ongoing negotiations [8]. - The Chinese government aims to strengthen its oversight of the entire rare earth production chain to combat smuggling and illegal mining activities [1][6]. - The recent measures reflect China's commitment to maintaining national security while promoting compliant trade practices [6][10].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国 4 月份职位空缺数意外增加暗示美国就业市场短期仍存韧性，这增强美 联储按兵不动以继续评估关税政策对经济通胀冲击的信心，另市场也在关注评估 中美元首通话处理贸易问题的可能性，隔夜伦敦黄金回调至 3350 美元/盎司附近。 特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提 振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，建议投资者继续持多头思 维以中低仓位参与交易，但工业需求压力下白银相对偏弱。本周关注美国贸易形 势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing bullish sentiment in the gold market, driven by geopolitical risks and trade tensions, with expectations for gold prices to potentially reach $3,500 per ounce in the near future [1][8]. Market Performance - On June 4, gold opened at $3,353.67 per ounce, fluctuating within a range of $20-25, hitting a low of $3,343.67 and a high of $3,384.45, ultimately closing at $3,372.14, marking a daily increase of $18.47 or 0.55% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $40.78, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Influences - The U.S. dollar index faced resistance and retreated, which supported gold prices. Weak U.S. economic data raised expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the dollar index back to a six-week low [3][5]. - Geopolitical tensions and trade concerns have reignited, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold as previous easing pressures dissipated [7][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices have maintained a bullish support trend above the May moving average, suggesting continued upward momentum [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold remains above the 5-week moving average, reinforcing a bullish outlook as it awaits a test of the $3,500 level [11]. - The daily chart indicates that while bullish momentum has weakened, gold is still positioned above key support levels, suggesting potential for further gains towards $3,435 or $3,500 [13]. Future Outlook - The overall sentiment remains positive for gold prices over the next one to two years, with expectations for high-level adjustments or further increases [8]. - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. jobless claims and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, which may influence market dynamics [5][8].

随着周三公布的私营部门岗位就业增长跌至两年多来的低点后，劳动力市场放缓的风险再次引发了市场 的警觉，贸易摩擦的逆风可能开始产生影响。与此同时，美国总统特朗普再次对美联储施加压力。外界 将目光转向本周压轴的非农就业数据，这会重演去年8月确立美联储启动降息的一幕吗？ 私营就业数据降温 在经济不确定性日益增加的情况下，劳动力市场可能正在走弱。根据薪资服务公司ADP周三发布的全国 就业报告，5月仅创造了3.7万个工作岗位，远低于4月份的6.2万个，意味着就业增长刷新2023年来新 低。 ADP首席经济学家理查森（Nela Richardson）表示："在今年开局强劲之后，招聘势头正在减弱。" ADP的报告还显示，工资增长表现依然强劲，这表明雇主没有利用较少的工作机会来压低工资。5月份 私营部门创造的绝大多数新工作岗位都在服务业，尤其是休闲和酒店业。相比之下，制造业和自然资 源/采矿业的工作岗位减少了。 疲软的ADP数据可能预示着周五美国劳工统计局公布本月美国非农报告时，就业指标也将同样疲软。然 而，ADP在历史上并不能很好地预测劳工统计局的报告，尽管随着时间的推移，两者确实朝着相同的方 向发展。 事实上，私营部门招聘 ...

Group 1 - China is considering ordering hundreds of Airbus aircraft, potentially between 200 to 500 units, with discussions ongoing between Airbus and Chinese airlines [1][2] - The order may include a significant number of wide-body aircraft, particularly the A330neo model, as the backlog of wide-body aircraft orders for Chinese airlines has decreased [1] - The potential deal is seen as a continuation of discussions that began prior to a visit by Chinese leaders to France in May 2022 [2] Group 2 - In 2022, Chinese airlines ordered approximately 300 single-aisle aircraft from Airbus, valued at around $37 billion [2] - Following the news of the potential order, Airbus shares rose by 4.1%, while Rolls-Royce, which produces engines for Airbus's wide-body aircraft, saw a 0.7% increase in stock price [2] - The ongoing negotiations are expected to strengthen Airbus's position in the largest aviation market globally, especially as Boeing faces challenges in conducting business in China due to trade tensions [2]

Group 1 - The market widely expects the Bank of Canada to maintain the interest rate at 2.75% [1] - The Bank of Canada may not provide much forward guidance, with an increased likelihood of a dovish tone due to potential economic damage from trade wars [2] - Attention is focused on the Bank of Canada's views regarding trade wars, the economy, and inflation [3] Group 2 - There is also a focus on the Bank of Canada's perspectives on geopolitical situations, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar exchange rate [4] - The interest rate decision will be announced at 21:45 Beijing time [5]