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商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 豆粕：美豆微跌、菜粕偏强，连粕或震荡 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4144 -39 | （-0.93%） 4149 +13（+0.31%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2983 | -18（-0.60%） 2993 +19 （+0.64%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1008.25 | -3.25（-0.32%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 276.3 -3.1 | n a （-1.11%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 2860～2900， 较昨-20至持平； M2509+0/+30/+50/+60， | 8月10日前提货M2509-100， 持平； 8-9月 持平； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The short - term optimistic sentiment about oil prices has rebounded, and oil prices are expected to run strongly. In the short term, it will run strongly in the range of 525 - 535, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US trade negotiations are proceeding smoothly, and both sides intend to extend the sanctions exemption period. Trump has significantly shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement and threatened to impose tariffs [3]. - **Basis**: On July 29, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.02 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $71.80 per barrel. The basis was 19.95 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending July 18 increased by 0.455 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 22, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, but the number of long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Russia led to a sharp rise in international crude oil futures. Sino - US trade negotiations are in line with market expectations. Short - term oil prices will run strongly in the 525 - 535 range, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict from 50 days to 10 days. If there is no progress, the US will impose tariffs and take other measures in 10 days [5]. - Sino - US officials held "constructive" talks in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce period. Whether to extend it will be decided by Trump [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased, with increases of 2.36, 2.50, 9.20, and 1.72 respectively, and the ranges were 3.40%, 3.75%, 1.82%, and 2.41% respectively [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of crude oil, such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., also increased [9]. 5. Position Data - **API Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels [3][10]. - **EIA Inventory**: The US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels [3][13]. - **WTI and Brent Net Long Positions**: As of July 22, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased [3][15][18].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of industrial enterprises in the first half of 2025, highlighting the impact of trade wars and price wars on various sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Profit Growth Trends**: In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises experienced a profit growth improvement in the first quarter, but a decline was noted in May and June due to the introduction of equal tariffs and price wars. June showed a slight improvement in profit growth, but it remained weak overall [2][3]. - **Impact of Trade Wars**: The trade war has led to a pattern where midstream raw materials and downstream industrial products saw initial revenue and profit growth, followed by a decline. This trend aligns with the timing of export rush and tariff policies [3][4]. - **"Revenue without Profit" Phenomenon**: The downstream consumer goods sector exhibited a "revenue without profit" characteristic, where revenue remained stable but profits declined due to price wars [4][5]. - **Sector Performance**: In June 2025, midstream dye processing, non-ferrous processing, and downstream sectors like instrumentation and automotive manufacturing showed improvements in both revenue and profit growth. However, the communication electronics manufacturing sector faced continuous profit decline despite revenue growth, likely due to price competition and tariff costs [5][6]. - **Inventory Cycle Trends**: The inventory cycle in the first half of 2025 showed a trend of initial replenishment followed by destocking, reflecting unstable business expectations. Midstream raw materials began destocking in the second quarter, while downstream industrial and consumer goods sectors continued to destock, indicating a lack of replenishment motivation [6][7]. - **High Inventory Turnover**: Industrial enterprises faced high product turnover days and extended accounts receivable collection periods, indicating weak replenishment intentions due to unstable demand [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Policy Expectations**: Anticipation of upcoming political meetings and ongoing US-China negotiations may influence future policies. There is a possibility of focusing on domestic demand policies in the latter half of the year, especially if fundamental pressures begin to emerge [9][10]. - **Export and Consumption Outlook**: The overall export orders are expected to face pressure in the second half of the year, particularly in the latter part of the third quarter, necessitating attention to domestic demand policies to address potential challenges [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to high - cost support from coking coal, despite the general downstream demand affected by weather and the suppression of speculative demand by the correction of coking coal and coke futures [1]. - Gold is still in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term as the US tariff issue remains uncertain and the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and non - farm data, while the US dollar index has limited upward momentum [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is currently healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector, but the upward space in the long term should be viewed with caution as the downstream demand is resilient but production may increase [3]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to tight supply, cost support, and stable downstream demand [4]. - The bond market's logical main line is unclear. With the global economic recovery and the smooth progress of China - US talks, attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [4]. - The national pig price continues to decline. It is recommended to short opportunistically and for farmers to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm due to oversupply [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the substitution effect of soybean meal, the weakening of US soybean prices, and the expected increase in new supply. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - Polypropylene's PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the supply is abundant and the inventory is high [7]. - Silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The positive outlook for the global economy is fundamentally beneficial to silver, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term. International factors support the price, but the domestic market has a loose supply and weak demand [8]. - Soda ash's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see as the production is increasing, the inventory is high, and the downstream demand is low - price - based [9]. - Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels as the US increases pressure on Russia and the market believes the trade war is weakening, and the inventory is not high [10][11]. - PTA should be short - term long at low levels as it follows crude oil, with a relatively balanced supply - demand situation and weakening cost support [11]. - Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels as the weather is normal, there is a slight inventory reduction in China, and the downstream demand is improving [12]. - Methanol's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the domestic production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is stable, and the port may accumulate inventory [13]. Summary by Variety Metals - **Steel (Rebar)**: On July 29, domestic steel prices turned from falling to rising. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3441 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and strengthen [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The national 136 - enterprise sample start - up rate was 33.33%, up 0.88% week - on - week, and the daily output was 14,615 tons, up 2.31% week - on - week. The weekly demand of five major steel types was 20,065.7 tons, up 0.26% week - on - week. The inventory of 60 independent enterprises decreased by 2.22% [3]. - **Coke**: On July 29, mainstream steel mills raised the bid price for wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Affected by the US tariff issue and the Fed's interest - rate meeting, gold is in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: With the positive outlook for the global economy, silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: On July 29, the national average pork price was 20.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The national pig price is falling, and it is recommended to short opportunistically [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In June 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production, and rapeseed meal production increased month - on - month, while soybean - related data decreased. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia is expected to export more than 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [8]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East - China's drawn - grade polypropylene was 7117 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1366 yuan/ton, with a recent price rebound. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: PXCFR was reported at 852 US dollars/ton. The PTA supply is expected to be abundant, and it should be short - term long at low levels [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Jiangsu Taicang market was 2405 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels. Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels [10]. Others - **Rubber**: The raw material prices in Thailand and China are relatively stable. The European replacement tire market sales decreased year - on - year. Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels [12].

美联储公开市场委员会本月议息会议结果即将于北京时间7月31日凌晨出炉。市场普遍预计美联储本月 将维持基准联邦基金利率区间不变。但市场分析人士表示，美联储任何鸽派信号都可能对金价构成支 撑。且从长期来看，市场分析人士依然看好黄金，并表示随着美联储走向鸽派的道路更加清晰，美元可 能走软，而不断增长的财政赤字也将继续增强黄金作为硬资产的吸引力。 消息面上，美国劳工部29日发布的月度职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）报告显示，美国6月份职 位空缺降至744万个，低于5月份的771万个。经济学家此前预测该数字将降至751万个。 当天9月交割的白银期货价格上涨5.5美分，收于每盎司38.385美元，涨幅为0.14%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 当天原油价格上涨和美国国债收益率小幅下降为黄金提供了支撑，助力金价结束了此前连续四个交易日 的下跌。 由于美国加大对俄罗斯的施压，国际油价29日大幅上涨，布伦特原油和WTI原油双双收高超3%。 不过，由于美国与日本、欧洲达成贸易协定缓解了贸易战担忧，金价近期承压回落，29日盘中一度回踩 测试3300美元关口支撑。市场分析人士认为，在美联储就未来降息提供指引之前，金价可能仍将维持区 ...

Trade Negotiations - US and China are expected to extend the trade truce for another three months, agreeing not to impose additional tariffs or escalate the trade war [1] - The extension involves the reinstatement of the suspended 24% portion of US tariffs and corresponding Chinese countermeasures for 90 days [1] - Trade teams will maintain close communication [1] Key Issues - Discussions will focus on major sticking points, such as US concerns about China's excess industrial capacity [1] - China is expected to pressure the US regarding fentanyl tariffs [1]

近期对黄金利空的因素，主要在美国与一系列国家和地区暂时达成了贸易协议。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 尽管前期出于对贸易冲突的担忧部分资金选择押注黄金多头，但 8 月 1 日到来前或有更多国家和美国达 成贸易协议，且美联储 7 月降息概率较低，都对美元资产形成支撑从而抑制金价涨幅，后期市场将回归 美国经济基本面的影响逻辑。 技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力缺乏较强突破的驱动，短期国际 金价冲高回落受到国内商品市场情绪扰动可能再度测试60 日均线（沪金760元附近）的支撑，可逢低阶 段做多把握连跌后修复。 特别是欧盟，美国与欧盟达成贸易协议后，将对欧盟商品征收的进口关税定为15%，远低于此前特朗普 威胁的30%税率。 这一协议有效避免了美欧之间爆发更大规模的贸易战，为全球市场注入了确定性。 受此影响，美元指数上涨，而由于避险情绪的退散，此前因此上涨的黄金受利空下跌。 日内收盘，沪金下跌0.24%，报收771.44元/克。 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | -26.3↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1460.000 | | | 1735 | +12.70↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 | -40.00↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -275.00 | | | -61.30 | -23.10↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 856.56 | +42.80↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 50726 32↑ | | | | | | | SCFIS（欧 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the recent strengthening of the US dollar, it may face challenges due to potential dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a faster-than-expected rate cut [1][2] - Standard Chartered Bank indicates that the recent weakness of the dollar may reflect market relief that the worst outcomes from trade negotiations are unlikely to occur, but attention is now shifting to the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Market expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are low, with no rate cuts priced in for July and only a 16 basis point cut anticipated for September [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence among FOMC members has narrowed, focusing primarily on the impact of tariffs, with some members advocating for ignoring temporary price increases while others, including Chairman Powell, suggest that the Fed could have been more accommodative without tariffs [2] - Economic data, particularly the upcoming employment report, is expected to become a focal point, with Standard Chartered warning that downside risks may outweigh consensus expectations [3] - The dollar is expected to weaken moderately over the next few months, but significant declines will depend more on actual shifts in Federal Reserve policy rather than further trade negotiation news [3]