导读： 本文欲探讨关税对测序设备、试剂、耗材及服务的影响，分析主要参与者的策略，窥探市场引发的连锁反应，跨国公司正积极寻求对策，本土制造商则有 机会筑建新的长城。 特别提示 微信公众号机制调整，请点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 导 读： 从研发角度，基于成本、技术以及国际合作方面分析，试图探索中美贸易摩擦持续升级下测序行业的机遇。 最近中美贸易摩擦持续升级，双方都对彼此的商品实施大幅度的关税增长，这些举措给我们测序行业带来了显著干扰和不确定，高额的关税阻 碍了设备、试剂以及耗材的进出口贸易，增加了研发和运营开销。 但往往不确定中就蕴含着机会，毕竟《孙子兵法·形篇》里面开篇就说"昔之 善战者，先为不可胜，以待敌之可胜"，意思是会打仗的人都先保证自己不败，然后等待敌人犯错。 当下大环境骤变，竞争格局即将重塑。本 文欲探讨关税对测序设备、试剂、耗材及服务的影响，分析主要参与者的策略，窥探市场引发的连锁反应，跨国公司正积极寻求对策，本土制 造商则有机会筑建新的长城。 放眼全球，测序是一个充满活力的市场，目前该行业主要由NGS驱动，这些技术使大规模基因组分析 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market shows mixed trends, with the real - estate chain being active and some sectors affected by policies and international news [2][3]. - The bond market is in a state of waiting for direction, with potential for a rebound after short - term adjustments [7]. - The precious metals market has seen a decline due to factors such as the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, but gold still has upward potential in the long - term [8][9]. - The shipping index market is in a state of shock, with suggestions to consider widening the spread between different contracts [12][13]. - The non - ferrous metals market presents different trends for each metal, with factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs influencing prices [20][22][23]. - The black metals market shows that steel production has peaked, and the iron ore market is in a state of shock [36][38][40]. - The agricultural products market has different situations for each product, such as the pressure on soybean meal prices and the shock of corn prices [53][55][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, A - share major indices mostly rose, with the real - estate chain being active. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and all had basis discounts. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields generally rose. It is expected that the bond market will have the potential to stabilize and rebound after short - term adjustments, and it is recommended to go long on dips and participate in basis and curve strategies [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell due to the European Central Bank's interest rate cut and reduced risk aversion. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to use high - throw and low - suck strategies in the short - term and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection [8][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index is in a state of shock. Spot supply and demand are still cold, and it is recommended to widen the spread between the August and June contracts and pay attention to the rebound opportunities of the June and August contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is affected by tariffs and fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [14][20]. - **Zinc**: There is still an expectation of loose supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 20500 - 21500 support level [20][22]. - **Tin**: With a weak macro - environment and gradually recovering supply, it is recommended to hold short positions and take a short - selling approach on rebounds [23][26]. - **Nickel**: After the implementation of the Indonesian policy, the market is in a state of shock. The cost has certain support, and the main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [26][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro - uncertainty, and the market is in a state of weak shock, with the main contract expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [29][31]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market has digested the tariff news, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to 6.8 - 7.2 million [32][35]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production has peaked, and the demand in the second quarter is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the domestic loose policy and the spread between steel and ore [36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron water output remains high, and the port inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to fluctuate, and the impact of terminal demand and exports needs to be observed [39][40]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [41][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is stable, but there is still a risk of decline. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [43][46]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the cost is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][48]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the mainstream steel procurement pricing, and the inventory pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, and the US soybean lacks the driving force to rise. The operation should be cautious [53][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening transaction has declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14000 - 14800 [56][57]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [58][60]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock - weak pattern [61]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [63].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel market fluctuates around tariff policies. Although the current steel demand data is good and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating, the direct and indirect exports of steel will be affected by tariff policies. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The iron ore market is affected by the escalation of tariff friction, with the contradiction between high iron - water production and low finished - product demand continuing to accumulate. It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. - The coking coal price may maintain a weak and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the profit repair rhythm of downstream steel enterprises, the recovery strength of terminal demand, and changes in import coal customs clearance policies [3]. - The coke market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in iron - water production and the impact of the realization of terminal steel demand on the price rebound height [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Thursday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 05 contract was 138 (+11) [1]. - **Demand and Export**: The current steel apparent demand data is good, and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating. In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. However, the indirect exports were about 140 million tons last year, with over 10 million tons exported to the US, and some re - exports were also affected [1]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Thursday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated narrowly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 762 yuan/wet ton (-2). The Platts 62% index was 99.9 US dollars/ton (+0.95), and the monthly average was 99.84 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 100 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.349 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 417,000 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 234.1815 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2198 million tons. The daily output of molten iron of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons. With the peak of building material demand and the slowdown of plate demand growth due to tariffs, iron ore is expected to enter a stage of increasing supply and falling demand [1]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. 3.3 Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main domestic production areas are restricted by safety inspections, and the overall capacity release rhythm is slow. The Mongolian port clearance volume fluctuates and declines, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: The coke enterprise start - up rate has rebounded, but it mainly consumes the previous inventory. Steel mills maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, and the market trading atmosphere is cold [3]. - **Policy**: Macroeconomic policies continue to suppress the black - series industry chain, and the long - term export demand is expected to weaken [3]. 3.4 Coke - **Supply**: After the first price increase, the loss pressure of coke enterprises has been alleviated, and the production rhythm has become stable [4]. - **Demand**: The high molten - iron production of steel mills supports rigid demand, but some steel mills start to control the arrival rhythm due to the uncertainty of terminal demand [4]. - **Policy**: The long - term export expectation is weakened by the intensification of foreign trade frictions, which suppresses market confidence [4]. 3.5 Industry News - **Production Data**: In March, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.298 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.6%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 3.159 million, a year - on - year increase of 45.4%. The production of air conditioners in March was 33.712 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 74.458 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. The production of washing machines in March was 11.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 29.564 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [6]. - **Housing Policy**: Qingdao plans to acquire more than 1,200 second - hand personal housing units for affordable rental housing and long - term rental housing [6]. - **Business Policy**: Shanghai encourages private enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions for industrial upgrading and supports private listed companies in market - value management [6]. - **Corporate Investment**: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. plans to invest 9 billion yuan to acquire a 35.42% stake in Magang Co., Ltd. and increase capital, with the shareholding ratio reaching 49% after the transaction [6]. - **Trade Negotiation**: China's Ministry of Commerce maintains communication with the US and is open to trade consultations [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean market showed a strong upward trend due to multiple factors including natural correction, macro - economic improvement, and positive USDA reports. The supply is expected to tighten in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand remains strong, providing support for soybean prices. [3][9] - The domestic soybean meal market is in wide - range fluctuations, affected by future supply tightening and cost factors. However, deep declines are limited due to the expected tightening of international soybean supply and Brazilian price support. [3] - Rapeseed meal has more short - term market disturbances and weak demand, but in the long - run, supply is relatively tight, and the space for deep price drops is limited. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean: The US soybean price is supported by strong fundamentals. The supply pressure is limited in the short - term, and the demand is strong in export, processing, etc. The Brazilian soybean market also shows good prospects in demand and processing. [3][9] - Domestic soybean meal: It fluctuates widely. Future supply tightening and cost factors lead to an obvious inventory build - up, but deep declines are limited due to international supply and Brazilian price support. [3] - Rapeseed meal: Short - term price pressure increases due to market disturbances and weak demand, but long - term supply is tight, and deep price drops are limited. [4] Strategies - Single - side trading: Buy at the low point of the far - month contract. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy far - month call options. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Strong demand for international soybeans and strong price support - US soybean price trend: It showed a continuous upward trend this week, driven by factors such as post - decline correction, macro - economic improvement, and positive USDA reports. [9] - Demand side: The USDA slightly increased the US soybean processing forecast, mainly due to strong demand for US soybean meal. Although US soybean sales are weakening, shipments remain strong. Brazilian demand is also improving. [9] 2. Supply pressure persists and macro - disturbances increase - Supply side: The current inventory and sales pressure of US soybeans are limited. The pressure on Brazilian soybeans may also be relatively small in the medium - to - long - term. The new US soybean crop may face a tight supply situation. [12] - Weather: The weather in South America is generally normal, with limited impact on soybean production. [12] - Macro - factors: This week, the focus was on tariff issues. Exchange rates showed significant fluctuations, with the Brazilian real depreciating and the US dollar index falling. [12] 3. Spot supply tightens, and future supply may improve - Domestic soybean meal price trend: It showed obvious fluctuations this week, affected by trade frictions, supply concerns, and Brazilian import costs. [15] - Fundamental aspects: The spot market trading volume has increased significantly. The market is tightening, and the inventory has decreased. However, the future soybean arrival pressure and macro - factors limit the reflection of the strong spot market on the futures price. [15] 4. Increased import of miscellaneous meals, and rapeseed meal continues to be weak - Rapeseed meal price trend: It follows the soybean meal market but is weaker. The increase in domestic miscellaneous meal imports eases concerns about rapeseed meal supply shortages. [18] - Fundamental aspects: The spot market trading volume has improved slightly, but overall trading is still inactive. The inventory remains at a relatively high level. In the long - run, the decline space is limited. [18] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - US soybean: Includes data on weekly sales, export inspections, monthly processing volume, and weekly processing profit. [21] - Brazil: Data on monthly export volume and monthly processing volume are presented. [25] - Argentina: Data on export volume and monthly processing volume are provided. [28] - Foreign premiums: Data on FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, Argentina, and CNF prices of rapeseed are shown. [30] Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - Exchange rates: The exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso are involved. [37][42] - Shipping: The shipping costs from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have decreased, with the decline rates of - 10.87%, - 12.07%, and - 8.97% respectively. [41] Supply - Data on soybean and rapeseed imports, weekly processing volume are presented. [47] Demand - Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volume are provided. [51] Inventory - Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventory are shown. [53]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of zero-day options on market volatility, particularly in the context of recent market turmoil driven by trade policy concerns [1][2][4] - The VIX index surged to its highest level since 2020, indicating extreme market volatility, while the trading volume of zero-day options related to the S&P 500 reached 8.5 million contracts in April, a 23% increase since the beginning of the year [1][2] - Analysts express mixed opinions on the role of zero-day options in driving volatility, with some attributing the recent spikes primarily to external factors such as Trump's tariff policies, while others suggest that the popularity of these options has exacerbated market fluctuations [3][4] Group 2 - The intraday volatility of the S&P 500 reached 44%, surpassing levels seen during the pandemic and approaching those during the 2008 financial crisis, with zero-day options playing a significant role in this volatility [2] - Concerns have been raised by investors, including Bill Ackman, regarding the potential risks posed by zero-day options in an already volatile trading environment, suggesting that these instruments may threaten market stability [2] - Research indicates that since the introduction of zero-day options in 2022, intraday volatility has increased by 24.5%, highlighting the potential influence of these short-term, speculative financial products on market dynamics [4]

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 资料来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望： 海外贸易政策方面， 虽然美国针对中国加征关税持续升级，但全球整体贸易 摩擦风险有所缓解，从 90 天关税暂停，到公布上千种产品关税豁免清单市场情绪 逐步回归稳定，短期趋势或逐步转为震荡，谨慎型投资者可择机止盈。中期来看， 后续国内宏观政策仍有发力空间，不论是降准降息，还是刺激内需等等的相关政 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 1.1 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government's imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods exceeds normal trade policy and constitutes a unilateral economic blockade, reflecting anxiety over maintaining global economic hegemony [1] - China's manufacturing exports surpassed $2 trillion in 2023, driven by a complete industrial system, efficient production capacity, and a continuously optimized business environment [3] - The U.S. misinterprets trade deficits by blaming China, while the real structural issues stem from U.S. industrial hollowing and excessive financialization [3] Group 2 - China's strategy to address trade friction demonstrates great power wisdom, with a 45% increase in semiconductor investment in 2023 and a 62% share of global patent applications in the new energy sector [5] - The growth of re-export trade reflects the adaptability of Chinese enterprises, with direct investment in Vietnam increasing by 180% over three years and the establishment of an auto parts cluster in Mexico creating 120,000 jobs [5] - The essence of Sino-U.S. economic relations should be cooperation rather than confrontation, with China remaining open to dialogue while rejecting any unequal terms that harm core interests [5] Group 3 - The trade confrontation is reshaping the global economic landscape, with U.S. companies losing access to the largest growth market, as evidenced by General Motors' 42% sales share in China in 2023 and Tesla's Shanghai factory contributing 52% of global capacity [7] - China's digital economy has surpassed 50 trillion yuan, and foreign investment in green and low-carbon industries has increased by 38%, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [7] - The historical trend shows that actions against economic globalization will not gain support, as China deepens regional cooperation through RCEP and international platforms like the China International Import Expo [7]

4月14日盘中，苯乙烯期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至7546.00元。截止发稿，苯乙烯主力合约报 7520.00元，涨幅1.69%。 苯乙烯期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 五矿期货 苯乙烯短期触底反弹看待 瑞达期货（002961） 苯乙烯后市价格存在回调的可能 五矿期货：苯乙烯短期触底反弹看待 伴随着特朗普宣布对大部分经济体（中国除外）暂停实施对等关税政策（仅生效13个小时），期限为90 天以供谈判，宏观利空短期告一段落，后续将持续跟踪贸易谈判进展。就当前而言，纯苯裂差BZN历史 同期低位的估值给了盘面拉涨的空间，最新苯乙烯周产量出现大幅下滑，厂库累库港口去库，供给端4 月20日涉及21万吨产能检修，前期检修装置陆续在5月底6月初重启，故我们认为苯乙烯短期触底反弹看 待。中长期来讲，后市在贸易摩擦需求萎靡的背景下，5月底6月初伴随着苯乙烯装置复产，我们仍旧维 持苯乙烯单边逢高抛空的观点。操作建议：前空止盈离场。 瑞达期货：苯乙烯后市价格存在回调的可能 供应端，上周万华65万吨、浙石化60万吨装置停车检修，苯乙烯产量环比-6.64%至31.34万吨，产能利 用率环比- ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a stable inflation trend in non-energy sectors, indicating an improvement in domestic demand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [2][6] - The company, Pengding Holdings, has successfully implemented a comprehensive AI strategy across its operations, including cloud, management, and end-user applications, while also advancing its electric vehicle business [7][8] Market Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3238.23, up by 0.45%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 9834.44, up by 0.82% [3] - The electronic sector showed a strong performance with a 3.77% increase, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector declined by 3.18% [4] Company Financials - For the year 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 35.14 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.59%, and a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.14% increase [8] - In Q4 2024, the company expects to report a revenue of 11.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.37% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.48% [8] AI and Technology Development - The company has made significant strides in AI applications, with revenue from AI-related products exceeding 45% in the communications sector, and a notable growth in sales from AI server products [9] - The automotive PCB products have also seen accelerated development, with a 90.34% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for automotive and server-related PCB products [9]

每经记者 朱成祥 每经编辑 马子卿 4月11日晚间，卓胜微（SZ300782，股价85.42元，市值456.6亿元）披露公告称，公司于近日收到韩国 首尔中央地方法院送达的《民事起诉状》等诉讼相关材料，日本村田就相关专利起诉卓胜微。相关案件 律师费等合理开支暂计人民币170.4万元及诉讼费用。 据了解，村田为全球SAW（声表面波滤波器）龙头企业。滤波器作为射频前端一个至关重要的器件， 具有广阔的市场前景。卓胜微为国内射频前端龙头企业，其搭建的6英寸滤波器产线，产品品类已实现 全面布局，自有产线已具备良好的规模量产能力，滤波器等产品已自主生产并持续放量。 另据卓胜微4月9日披露的投资者关系活动记录表，公司目前6英寸滤波器产线的产品品类已实现全面布 局，具备双工器/四工器、单芯片多频段滤波器等分立器件的规模量产能力，现已实现第一期1万片/月 的产能目标，第二期产能规划增加至1.6万片/月。集成自产滤波器模组等产品成功导入多家品牌客户并 持续放量。据卓胜微提供的资料，当前"专利围剿"与贸易摩擦加剧，卓胜微通过"设计+制造"全链条布 局强化核心竞争力。 此外，在今年1月23日，国家知识产权局曾就卓胜微对日本村田的"弹性 ...