Core Viewpoint - The surge in copper and gold prices, influenced by input factors, has led to a continued rise in inflation for December [2][8] - December's PPI increased primarily due to the rise in copper prices, while other commodity prices and mid-to-lower stream PPI showed weak performance [2][8] - The CPI for December rose year-on-year, supported by high gold prices, although core CPI excluding gold remained low [2][8] Inflation Data Summary - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released December 2025 inflation data: CPI year-on-year at 0.8%, previous value 0.7%, expected 0.8%, month-on-month at 0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -1.9%, previous value -2.2%, expected -2%, month-on-month at 0.2 [1][7][71] PPI Analysis - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, driven by a 7.9% rise in copper prices, which was the strongest contributing factor [2][8] - Coal prices contributed positively to PPI, while international oil prices declined, negatively impacting domestic oil prices [2][8] - The utilization rate in mid-to-lower stream sectors did not improve significantly, leading to a failure in price transmission from upstream to downstream [2][8] CPI Analysis - December CPI rose year-on-year by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, with core CPI rising to 2% mainly due to high gold prices [2][8] - Excluding gold, the remaining core CPI continued to decline, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points to -0.7% [2][8] - The CPI for food items increased by 0.9 percentage points to 1.1%, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant price increases due to supply constraints [3][23][72] Service CPI Insights - The service CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%, with weak rental demand dragging down housing rent CPI [3][29][72] - Core service CPI also decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1%, while dining out CPI saw a slight decline [3][29][72] Future Outlook - The ability of anti-involution policies to sustain price increases in mid-to-lower stream sectors is crucial for future inflation trends [4][40] - Over the past three years, commodity prices have only explained about 30% of PPI fluctuations, with more influence from price "over-declines" in mid-to-lower stream sectors [4][40] - High gold prices and improvements in service consumption may support core CPI, but the high base effect from the Spring Festival may limit January's CPI increase [4][40]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic (PV) products, effective April 1, 2026, signifies the end of the "rebate subsidy era" for the industry, leading to increased costs for export companies [1]. Group 1: Impact on Industry - The current export tax rebate rate for PV products is 9%, down from 13% as of December 1, 2024, which indicates a significant reduction in financial support for exporters [1]. - Analysts predict that the cancellation will primarily impact PV module manufacturers, resulting in increased direct costs and reduced price competitiveness [1]. - The cancellation is expected to reduce profit margins for exporters, with estimated profit reductions of 46 to 51 yuan per 210R PV module, compressing export gross margins [1]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Effects - In the short term, there may be a surge in orders from overseas clients as they seek to capitalize on the remaining rebate period, potentially alleviating pessimistic expectations within the supply chain [2]. - However, long-term projections indicate a potential decline in PV module exports by 5% to 10% due to the removal of the rebate, leading to a significant drop in overseas demand [2]. - The cash flow of export companies is anticipated to become a major risk factor as profit margins decrease [2]. Group 3: Industry Reactions and Adjustments - Some industry insiders express that the cancellation will have a substantial impact on all companies, not just small and medium-sized enterprises, as many rely heavily on the rebate for profitability [2]. - Companies are expected to ramp up production and shipping to overseas markets in anticipation of price increases post-cancellation, potentially leading to a supply-demand imbalance [2]. - The cancellation is viewed as a measure to combat unhealthy price competition within the industry, encouraging companies to abandon low-price strategies [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Perspective - The Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association supports the adjustment of export tax rebates as a means to promote rational pricing in foreign markets and reduce trade friction risks [3]. - The association acknowledges that while adjusting export tax rebates is not the sole solution to external competition issues, it is beneficial for stabilizing export prices and mitigating trade disputes in the long run [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in CPI and PPI for December 2025, highlighting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% for both indices, with PPI marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Year-on-year, CPI and PPI are reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively, exceeding previous model predictions [1][4]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase of 0.2% is attributed to various sectors, with negative growth observed in pork, alcoholic beverages, rent, fuel, and traditional Chinese medicine. Positive growth is noted in fresh vegetables, fruits, medical services, gold jewelry, and durable goods [6][7]. - Durable goods prices showed significant improvement, particularly in household appliances, which saw a historical high month-on-month increase of 1.4% in December, likely influenced by seasonal factors and PPI transmission [6][8]. - Transportation tools experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, above the ten-year average of -0.15%, possibly due to stabilization in car prices amid a "de-involution" context [6][8]. PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2% is driven by a 0.8% rise in the mining industry, marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Raw materials and processing industries also saw increases of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, the fastest rates of the year [2][9]. - In the living goods category, while food and durable goods continued to show negative growth, clothing and general daily necessities recorded increases of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, marking the second-highest points of the year [2][9]. - Specific industries showed price differentiation, with rising prices in coal mining and processing, contributing significantly to PPI growth. Additionally, prices in lithium-ion battery manufacturing and cement production increased by 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively [10][9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the simulated deflation index is expected to rise gradually after hitting a low in July 2025, correlating with the timing of increased "de-involution" efforts. The central economic work conference indicates that addressing "involution" will be a key focus for 2026 [3][11]. - Historical economic cycles indicate that periods of nominal growth elasticity, such as 2006-2007 and 2010-2011, are characterized by strong internal demand stimulation. The outlook for 2026 suggests potential benefits from external demand due to fiscal expansions in developed economies and industrialization in developing countries [3][11].

对上述产品中征收消费税的产品，出口消费税政策不作调整，继续适用消费税退（免）税政策。 表面上减少了税费补贴，但实际上直指"反内卷"。 与客户自提模式相比，电池厂自送海外的模式下，电池厂商需要承担更高的税收成本。因为他们不仅要 承担国内的增值税，还需要处理出口过程中的各类税务问题。这意味着电池厂商将面临直接的成本压 力，可能影响其利润率和市场定价策略。 1月9日，财政部、税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告。公告显示，2026年4月1日起 至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品 增值税出口退税。 杨玏认为，这项政策的出台，表面上看减少了对电池行业的出口补贴，事实上却对解决电池产业"内 卷"问题有着更深远的意义。中国电池产业，尤其是动力电池和储能电池领域，经历了多年的过度竞 争。低价竞争、技术模仿叠加过度依赖政策补贴，导致许多中小企业难以脱颖而出，技术创新动力不 足。在此背景下，相关政策希望通过下调退税率，进一步推动行业淘汰低端产能，转向研发技术含量更 高、附加值更强的产品。 中国出口退税制度自1985年4月1日起正式实施，电池类产品 ...

三大外卖平台齐发声 近日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况开展调查、评估。 对此，证券时报记者获悉，在1月9日，三大外卖平台齐齐发声，称支持相关调查和评估。 国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室有关负责同志在答记者时表示，外卖平台服务行业作为我国平台经济的重要组成部分，在促进消费、扩 大就业、推动创新等方面发挥了重要作用。但近段时间以来，外卖平台服务行业拼补贴、拼价格、控流量等问题突出，挤压实体经济，加剧行 业"内卷式"竞争，社会各方面反映强烈。为推动外卖平台依法合规经营、公平有序竞争，形成优质优价、良性竞争的市场秩序，国务院反垄断 反不正当竞争委员会办公室（以下简称委员会办公室）依据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》规定，决定对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况开展调 查、评估。 在这一消息发出后，三大外卖平台也是齐齐发声。 美团表示，坚决拥护，将全力做好配合工作。近一段时间以来，外卖市场"拼价格、拼补贴、控流量"等非理性竞争问题突出。美团多次呼吁行 业回归理性，坚决反对"内卷式"竞争。美团将以此次调查为契机，和行业内各平台一起，共同落实市场主体责任，公平参与市场竞争，促进外 卖平台服务 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, profit margins have improved, reducing the incentive for production cuts. Iron ore production has stopped declining and stabilized, with a slight increase in output. However, downstream demand is expected to weaken gradually after the festival. Currently, inventory is being depleted, but there may be inventory accumulation due to supply - demand mismatches in the future, leading to a price return to a volatile pattern [3] - For iron ore, the current fundamentals are neutral. The shipping end is slightly positive, but there is significant pressure on floating ore at sea and subsequent port - arrival pressure. On the demand side, steel mill profits have rebounded, and inventory has been continuously depleted, providing room for increased production. It is expected that iron production has bottomed out and will rebound. Inventory is high, but there is a structural shortage. Attention should be paid to policy risks. Steel mills have pre - festival inventory replenishment demand for support. Overall, the current spot market is not short of iron ore, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price increases. In the short - term, prices are overbought technically, and attention should be paid to policy risks related to inventory release [22] - For coking coal and coke, the market has been affected by the "anti - monopoly" news, and the previous hype of the "anti - involution" concept has cooled down. The coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of correction. The rebound of coking coal and coke is mainly driven by the resonance of macro and industrial logic. Macro - level events have intensified concerns about the supply stability of key mineral resources, affecting multiple sectors. On the industrial side, the stabilization and rebound of downstream iron production, the strengthening of winter storage replenishment expectations, and low inventory in the spot - futures trading link support the demand side. The impact of macro sentiment on coking coal and coke prices is significantly stronger than that of industrial logic. If the macro sentiment cools down, it will be difficult to support a significant upward movement of the futures market relying solely on the improvement of demand in the black industry chain. The subsequent trend may turn into a small - range volatile pattern [32] - For ferroalloys, with the increase in production and continuous inventory accumulation, the upward momentum of price fluctuations may be suppressed, leading to a price correction. However, the downward space is limited due to cost support [48] - For soda ash, the sentiment in the commodity market has heated up, driving up low - valued varieties. Fundamentally, as the expectation of new production capacity comes into play, the expectation of oversupply in soda ash is intensifying. Recently, the cold repair of glass production lines has accelerated, further weakening the expected rigid demand for soda ash. The medium - to - long - term high - level supply expectation of soda ash remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In November, soda ash exports were close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to alleviate domestic pressure to some extent. High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts soda ash prices [62] - For glass, there are still some glass production line cold repairs to be implemented before the Spring Festival, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy disturbances to supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of supply expectations, the high inventory in the mid - stream of glass needs to be digested, and with the terminal market entering the off - season, there is still pressure on the spot market [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,089 yuan/ton, down from 3,127 yuan/ton on January 8; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices also showed slight declines in some regions [4][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 55 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 41 yuan/ton on January 8; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 39 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 17 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar - hot - rolled coil spread also showed some changes [4][16] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the 01 contract was 852 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 05 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan from the previous day. The basis also showed corresponding changes [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The average daily iron production on January 9 was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port inventory was 16,275,260 tons, up 304,370 tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread Data**: On January 9, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 83 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 328 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1,500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan from the previous week [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 9, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 38 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 146 yuan/ton on January 9, down 62 yuan from the previous day; the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [50] Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,228 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,295 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [63] - **Inventory and Market Data**: The overall inventory of the upstream and mid - stream remains high, restricting price increases. In November, exports were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [62] Glass - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,144 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,238 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day [85] - **Sales and Production Data**: The sales - to - production ratio in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on January 4 was 137, compared to 130 on January 3 [86]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and for battery products starting January 1, 2027 [1][2] - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% [2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic industry has led to a recovery in industry valuations, with upstream prices returning to reasonable levels and mid-to-downstream prices showing an upward trend [4] - Investment opportunities are identified in three areas: price elasticity opportunities, new technology advancements, and the commercialization of perovskite solar cells [4] - The space photovoltaic sector is gaining attention, with plans for deploying solar energy satellites, which could significantly enhance energy supply for space applications [4][5] - The potential market size for space photovoltaics is estimated at approximately 80 billion yuan, driven by the demand for energy in satellite communication and emerging applications [6]

Inflation Data Summary - December 2025 CPI year-on-year increased to 0.8%, matching expectations and up from 0.7% in the previous month[1] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, a significant improvement from -0.1% in the prior month, marking the largest increase for December since 2021[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[1] Core CPI Analysis - Core CPI has shown resilience, supported mainly by industrial consumer goods, maintaining a 1.2% increase for four consecutive months[2] - Prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] - Notable contributors include household appliances (1.4% increase), other goods and services (2.8% increase), and communication tools (3.0% increase) in December[2] Food Price Trends - Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to the CPI, slightly above the 2021-2024 average of 0.1%[3] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant increases of 0.8% and 2.6%, respectively, while pork prices continued to decline by 1.2%[3] - As of January 8, 2026, pork wholesale prices have risen by 1.9% compared to December 2025, indicating potential stabilization[3] Housing and Energy Impact - Housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, negatively impacting CPI due to its high weight of approximately 22%[4] - Fuel prices for transportation fell by 1.1%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point decrease in CPI[4] PPI Insights - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in industrial prices after a low period[4] - The mining sector saw a 0.8% increase, while raw materials rose by 0.6%, marking a 19-month high[5] - The overall PPI remains under pressure from declining oil prices, with the oil and gas extraction sector experiencing a 1.3% drop[6] Market Implications - Current inflation levels are moderate, suggesting no immediate constraints on "loose monetary policy" but limiting the downward space for long-term interest rates[8] - Industrial price recovery is a positive signal for improving profit expectations, although a broad-based price increase has not yet materialized[8] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected adjustments in monetary policy could arise from economic slowdowns or changes in overseas monetary policies[9] - Liquidity may also experience unexpected changes if domestic economic data continues to exceed expectations[9]

Report Information - **Report Title**: Energy and Chemical Weekly - **Date**: January 9, 2026 - **Research Team**: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is affected by geopolitical events such as the US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran. Crude oil supply has an increasing expectation, and the market faces a large inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026. Oil prices still have a risk of decline [7][10]. - The asphalt market has relatively balanced supply and demand, and the raw material end has certain support. It is expected that asphalt prices may run strongly. It is recommended to consider going long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. - The polyester market is in a demand - off season. PTA is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and its price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a concentrated inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, and its price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. - The price of polyester staple fiber is expected to decline due to weakening cost and poor supply - demand structure [66]. - The polyolefin market is expected to rise first and then fall under the drive of supply recovery and demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle [84]. - The polysilicon market has an upward price but no improvement in fundamentals. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. - The industrial silicon market has a neutral performance. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. - The pulp market has limited fundamental changes and is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [154]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI crude oil closed at $58.28/barrel, up 1.66%; Brent crude oil closed at $62.79/barrel, up 3.27%; SC crude oil closed at 432.7 yuan/barrel, up 0.12%. The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the oil price. The market faces inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026, and oil prices have a risk of decline [7]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the supply and demand of the oil market. The US crude oil inventory decreased, but the refined oil inventory increased. The inventory accumulation speed in Q1 2026 slowed down slightly [10]. Asphalt 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The BU2603 contract closed at 3171 yuan/ton, down 4.45%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased. The supply of asphalt may decrease, and the demand is divided between the north and the south. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The cost is affected by the oil market. The domestic asphalt device maintenance loss increased, and the average operating load rate decreased. The production profit increased. The demand is divided between the north and the south, and the inventory increased [33][34][35]. Polyester 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The cost support for PTA is weakening, and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain inventory accumulation, and the price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is decreasing. The supply of PTA is expected to decrease, and the price may decline. The ethylene glycol industry's operating load rate decreased, the inventory increased, and the profit increased slightly [59][60][62]. Polyester Staple Fiber 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market declined last week. This week, the cost support is weak, the supply is loose, and the demand is in an off - season. It is expected that the price will decline [66]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is weakening. The operating load rate of the polyester staple fiber industry is stable, and the supply is loose. The cost and supply - demand factors drag down the price [67][68]. Polyolefin 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The futures and spot prices of polyolefin increased last week. The supply pressure of polypropylene decreased, and the supply pressure of plastics increased slightly. The demand is in an off - season, and it is expected to rise first and then fall [76][84]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Polypropylene has more temporary maintenance, and the production decreases. The production of polyethylene increases slightly. The production profit of different raw materials has different changes. The inventory of two - oil companies decreased, and the downstream operating rate is divided [85][90][99]. Polysilicon 1. Market Review and Outlook - The price of polysilicon increased, but the fundamentals have no improvement expectation. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. 2. Overview of the Photovoltaic Industry's Fundamentals - The market supervision department has taken regulatory measures. The prices of the photovoltaic industry chain are running strongly, but the supply exceeds demand, and the inventory removal resistance is large [119][121]. Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Review and Outlook - The price of industrial silicon futures declined, and the trading volume and open interest increased. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. 2. Overview of the Industrial Silicon's Fundamentals - The prices of the industrial silicon industry chain are running strongly. The production of industrial silicon is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, the export is stable, and the inventory is slowly accumulating [139][140][141]. Pulp 1. Pulp Market Review and Outlook - The price of pulp futures declined slightly. The spot prices of imported pulp mostly increased. The fundamentals of pulp changed little, and it is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [153][154]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries decreased in November. China's pulp import volume increased in November. The global pulp inventory days increased, and the domestic and European port inventories decreased. The downstream market is stable [155][161][168].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced significant changes to the export tax rebate policy for the photovoltaic industry, which will impact the financial dynamics of the sector starting in 2026 [1][2]. Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that from April 1, 2026, the value-added tax (VAT) export rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled [2]. - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the rebate will be completely canceled [2]. Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" movement in the photovoltaic industry has led to a recovery in pricing, particularly in the upstream sector, with expectations for price increases in the mid and downstream segments [4]. - Investment opportunities are identified in three main areas: price elasticity as inventory is digested, new technologies that enhance efficiency, and the commercialization of perovskite solar cells [5]. Emerging Technologies - The potential for space photovoltaic systems is gaining attention, with plans for deploying solar energy satellites that could generate 100 GW annually [5]. - The space photovoltaic market could reach approximately 800 billion yuan if 4,000 satellites are launched, each with an average solar wing area of 100 square meters [6]. - Current leading technologies for space applications include gallium arsenide multi-junction batteries, while P-type HJT and next-generation perovskite/silicon tandem batteries are expected to dominate the market due to their efficiency and adaptability [6].