14日，商务部发言人回应了美方扬言对中国商品加征100%关税的事。 发言人首先反驳了美方声称的"中方没有提前通报，还在事后拒接电话"，明确表示，措施出台前中方就 通过双边机制向美方进行了通报，13日中美还进行了工作层会谈。 显然，商务部的表态充分说明，无论分歧有多大，中方始终有着沟通的诚意，美国人要么是在信口开 河，要么就是内部沟通机制出现问题，以至于主管领导没能收到通报。 说白了，面对中方保护自身利益的措施，美国人认为，他们唯一的做法只剩下继续捅自己一刀，再反问 中方怕不怕，现在就在纠结这一刀要不要真的捅下去。但明眼人都知道，这种自残式的反击策略，不仅 无法有效制约中国，反而可能加速美国的衰落。 在这场大国博弈中，中国已明确表达自己的立场：不会接受任何以牺牲中方利益为代价的交易。未来双 方是选择重回谈判桌，还是走向更激烈的对抗，将取决于美方能否真正领悟"相互尊重、平等协商"的含 义。 但是，我们虽然接起了电话，可在具体问题上，却一步也不退。 商务部明确指出，中方的管制措施不是一刀切地禁止，只要符合规定，我们就会批准相关物项的出口， 美方不能一边说着想和中方协商解决问题，一边又持续出台对中国的歧视性出口管制措 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 www.itf.com.cn 慎 险 | 指标 | | 10月13日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 118 | 10 | 1600 | == == | | ===== 19/20 == | == | - 24/25 | ==== 21/22 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 天津 | 108 | 30 | 1200 800 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | 58 | 50 | 400 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | -2 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | 10/27 | 11/27 12/28 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The post - holiday inventory of major plastic producers has significantly accumulated, the cost support of crude oil for polyethylene has weakened, and new device production has increased supply pressure, driving the downward trend of polyolefins. The overall supply of PE and PP has increased significantly, while the downstream demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support has weakened, so the polyolefins continue to be weak [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,983 yuan/ton (-54), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (-29). The spot prices and basis of LL and PP in different regions have also changed [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and the PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 542.8 yuan/ton (+157.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 127.2 yuan/ton (+157.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 99.0 yuan/ton (-270.1) [1] - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is 10.8 yuan/ton (+52.2), the PP import profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton (-73.5), and the PP export profit is 17.5 US dollars/ton (+9.1) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rates of PE downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film, and PP downstream industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP film have all increased to varying degrees [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has significantly accumulated. The decline of crude oil has weakened the cost support for polyethylene, and new device production has increased supply pressure. The supply has increased significantly, while the downstream demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support has weakened [2] - **PP**: After the holiday, the decline of PP is obvious, mainly dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and the significant decline of propane prices. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support is weak [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L; PP fluctuates weakly [4] - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread L01 - L05; Reverse spread PP01 - PP05 [4] - **Inter - variety**: Shrink PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Core Viewpoints - External shocks have limited impact on the market, with the current environment significantly different from the April trade war phase, leading to a more resilient market outlook [4][6] - China's export situation remains stable despite trade tensions, with the proportion of exports to the US declining to around 10% in August, down from an average of 15%, indicating limited overall impact from potential tariff shocks [4][6] - The market's confidence has improved, with a notable decrease in index volatility and a shift towards a more bullish sentiment as key meetings and the 14th Five-Year Plan are anticipated [4][6] Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend, with core trends unchanged despite short-term external shocks, as the index stabilizes around the 4000-point mark [5][7] - Liquidity and the development of the high-tech industry remain two key drivers for the market's upward trajectory [5][7] Investment Strategy - A dual mainline investment strategy is recommended, focusing on the core position of the large technology sector while adjusting for potential disruptions from US-China tensions [5][7] - Cyclical sectors such as military, pharmaceuticals, and new energy are suggested for continued focus due to their favorable outlook [5][7] - High dividend yield stocks are becoming more attractive post-adjustment, appealing to conservative investors [5][7] Weekly Data Insights - The market experienced notable adjustments this week, with the growth enterprise market leading the decline [8] - The overall valuation of the A-share market remains within a reasonable range, with slight bubbles observed in major indices [17][20] Industry Valuation Distribution - Various sectors exhibit differing valuation metrics, with dynamic price-to-earnings ratios and price-to-book ratios indicating varying levels of market sentiment and investment attractiveness [20][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak volatility [2] - Rolled steel: Weak volatility [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Volatility [2] - CSI 300: Volatility [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong volatility [4] - Silver: Strong volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish volatility [6] - Live pigs: Weak volatility [8] - Rubber: Volatility [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Volatility [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side uncertainties, with weak unilateral drivers for iron ore and varying trends for other products [2] - The financial market shows mixed trends in stock indexes and bonds, with gold and silver expected to be strong due to various factors [4] - The light industry products have different price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors, such as logs with increased volatility and pulp in consolidation [6] - The agricultural products face challenges in supply and demand, with livestock products like live pigs having a weak short-term outlook and rubber showing volatility [8] - The polyester industry has complex supply-demand relationships, with different products having different investment ratings and price trends [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply concerns arise from pricing disputes and accidents, with short-term focus on steel demand and potential negative feedback [2] - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations and supply factors influence the market, with coke's first-round price increase implemented and second-round likely to fail [2] - Rolled steel: Static valuation is low, supply pressure is significant, and demand recovery in October is crucial, with high inventory and weak demand putting pressure on prices [2] - Glass: Supply and demand show no significant improvement, with inventory accumulation and weak demand due to the real estate downturn, and potential policy impact on the future [2] Financial Market - Stock indexes: Most indexes show negative trends, with market sentiment affected by trade and economic data, and investors advised to control risk [4] - Bonds: Treasury bond yields show slight fluctuations, with the central bank's open market operations affecting liquidity, and long-term bonds showing a slight upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to be strong due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [4] Light Industry - Logs: Supply is expected to increase after the holiday, with demand gradually recovering, and prices likely to be more volatile [6] - Pulp: Cost support weakens, demand improvement is uncertain, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: Production is stable, demand may improve with new tenders, but price profit is low, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, demand is weak after the holiday, and prices are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations, with attention on production and sales in relevant regions [6] - Meal products: Supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and prices are expected to be bearish, with attention on soybean planting and imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with a possible widening of the price difference between fat and lean pigs [8] - Rubber: Supply pressure varies by region, demand shows some improvement, and inventory is decreasing, with prices likely to fluctuate widely [8] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply increases and demand decreases, with prices following oil price fluctuations and PXN spreads under pressure [9] - PTA: Cost support may weaken, supply and demand improve marginally, and prices follow cost fluctuations [9] - MEG: Supply pressure increases, with expected medium-term oversupply, and short-term cost fluctuations affecting prices [9] - PR: The market is sluggish with no strong support from raw materials and supply-demand, and attention is on factory sales and downstream follow-up [9] - PF: Downstream demand is stable, external negative sentiment eases, and prices are expected to stabilize [9]

Report Overview - **Report Name**: "集运星报" [1] - **Report Date**: October 14, 2025 [2] - **Research Team**: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The current situation is characterized by a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, with significant fluctuations influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. In the short term, due to spot price reduction expectations, geopolitical easing, and the impact of the Sino - US trade war, market sentiment may be weak. However, considering the expected peak season and long - term contract signing season, there may be opportunities to go long on contracts 12, 02 - 04 at low prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **EC2510**: Closed at 1129.4 yesterday, with a change of 0.74%, trading volume of 4774, and an open interest of 16148 with a change of - 2204 [2]. - **EC2512**: Closed at 1562.5, with a change of - 0.54%, trading volume of 24678, and an open interest of 28771 with a change of 715 [2]. - **EC2602**: Closed at 1359.9, with a change of 1.64%, trading volume of 5747, and an open interest of 9376 with a change of - 392 [2]. - **EC2604**: Closed at 1098.5, with a change of 2.76%, trading volume of 4408, and an open interest of 12825 with a change of - 133 [2]. - **EC2606**: Closed at 1268.0, with a change of 1.55%, trading volume of 283, and an open interest of 1483 with a change of - 33 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 433.1, with a daily change of 16.8 and a weekly change of 188.2 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 202.6, with a daily change of - 30.4 and a weekly change of 113.5 [2]. Spot Market Indicators - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly on Monday, as of October 13, 2025, it was 1031.8 points, a decrease of 1.40% from the previous period and 6.60% from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was $1068/TEU, an increase of 9.99% from the previous period [2]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1287.15 points, a decrease of 8.19% from the previous period [2]. - **NCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was 698.67 points, an increase of 11.39% from the previous period and 2.13% from two periods ago [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Situation - **Week 40 - 41**: Two - week joint cabin release. The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK quoted $1400; PA quoted between $1300 - 1500; YML's $1300 was the lowest price of the year; OA quoted between $1400 - 1600 [2]. - **Week 42**: The price was announced to increase to $1800 - 2000. As of the weekend, it was not the booking window, and the quotation was not readjusted. It was reported that ONE quoted $1200 in the first half - month, and CMA's freight forwarder still quoted between $1500 - 1600 [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcement**: MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price increases to around $2500, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market [2]. News - On October 13, Hamas released all Israeli detainees. On October 14, a cease - fire agreement for Gaza was signed in Egypt. The Sharm El - Sheikh "Peace Summit" was hosted by Egyptian President Sisi and US President Trump, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu canceled his participation, and Hamas did not send a representative [3].

来源：商务部官网 商务部新闻发言人就近期美方宣布对华加征关税等限制措施答记者问。 答：中方注意到有关情况。近日，中方已就美威胁对华加征1 0 0%关税等限制措施阐明了有 关立场。我愿重申，关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，是中国政府依据法律法规，完善 自身出口管制体系的正当做法。中国作为负责任大国，始终坚定维护自身国家安全和国际共 同安全，中国的出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将一如既往地予以许可，共同维 护全球产供链安全稳定。措施出台前，中方已通过双边出口管制对话机制向美方进行了通 报。反观美方，长期泛化国家安全，滥用出口管制，对华采取歧视性做法。 特别是中美马 德里经贸会谈以来美方持续新增出台一系列对华限制措施，严重损害中方利益，严重破坏双 方经贸会谈氛围，中方对此坚决反对。 关于关税战、贸易战，中方立场是一贯的。 打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。 中美拥有广泛 的共同利益和广阔的合作空间，双方合则两利，斗则俱伤。过去4轮经贸磋商充分证明，中 美在相互尊重、平等协商基础上，能够找到解决问题的办法。 双方在中美经贸磋商机制框 架下一直保持沟通，昨天还进行了工作层会谈。 我想指出，美方不能一边要谈，一边威胁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods by Trump marks a significant escalation in the US-China trade war, potentially leading to severe impacts on high-end manufacturing in China, particularly in the semiconductor sector [1] Group 1: Trade Tariffs and Responses - The US's proposed tariffs could increase the total tariffs on Chinese goods to 130%, which may severely affect China's high-end manufacturing capabilities [1] - China is prepared to respond with equivalent tariffs on US goods, particularly targeting the service trade where the US has a significant surplus [3] - The US has delayed previous negotiations due to concerns over inflation, unemployment, and supply chain issues, indicating a reluctance to engage in a full-scale trade confrontation [3] Group 2: Rare Earth Elements - China controls 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing, making it a critical player in high-tech manufacturing [5] - Recent upgrades to China's rare earth export controls include restrictions on any foreign production using Chinese technology and a comprehensive control over the entire supply chain [5] - The US military heavily relies on Chinese rare earths, with a report indicating that 87% of its supply chain has critical vulnerabilities [5][6] Group 3: Agricultural Impact - China, as the largest consumer of soybeans, has ceased purchasing US soybeans since May 2025, leading to significant financial distress for US farmers [9] - The halt in soybean purchases has resulted in 7 million tons of unsold soybeans and the bankruptcy of 12,000 farmers in the Midwest [9] - The urgency for Trump to persuade China to resume soybean purchases is heightened by the upcoming midterm elections, as farmers threaten to withdraw support for the Republican Party [9] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - China dominates the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), supplying 23% of the US's API imports [11] - A 100% tariff on Chinese APIs could lead to increased drug costs and exacerbate shortages in the US market, prompting pharmaceutical companies to consider relocating production [11][12] - The potential rise in drug prices could significantly impact low-income families' access to healthcare, raising concerns among US lawmakers [12] Group 5: US Debt and Financial Stability - The US national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with China reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2008 [14] - This reduction in US debt holdings by China signals a potential financial risk for the US and has contributed to market instability [14] - The shift towards de-dollarization is evident as China seeks to establish alternative currency arrangements with countries like Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Russia [14] Group 6: Global Financial Dynamics - The ongoing trends indicate a significant shift in global financial power, with the renminbi gaining acceptance as an international currency [14] - The erosion of the US's financial dominance is highlighted by the increasing use of the renminbi in global transactions, particularly in energy markets [14][15] - The combination of these factors suggests a profound transformation in the global monetary system, moving towards a multi-currency framework [14][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term adjustments. Alumina prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile bottom - grinding market. Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strengthen in the medium - term. Nickel prices are expected to have increased volatility and a lower oscillation center. Stainless steel prices are expected to weaken. Tin prices will be in a short - term high - level oscillation. Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon prices may have a limited short - term callback. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to reduce inventory and support the price [6][14][20][46][53][60][64][71][76] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,120 yuan/ton, down 2.06%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced positions by 12,125 lots to 566,100 lots. The spot market trading improved with price drops, and the premium in Shanghai rose [2] - **Important Information**: As of October 13, the national copper inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 17.2 million tons. In September, China imported 2.587 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and the cumulative import from January to September was 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September was 521,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff remarks and supply - side problems have affected copper prices. Mine supply tension has intensified, and consumption shows "not prosperous in the peak season", but there may be an increase in demand after price adjustments [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline. Keep options on hold [7][8][9] Alumina - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 57 yuan to 2,820 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions declined [10] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang purchased 10,000 tons of alumina on October 13. As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 98.55 million tons in operation. In September, the actual production of alumina was 8.06 million tons, the net export was about 80,000 tons, and the demand was 7.552 million tons [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by market sentiment, alumina prices fell. Although the static surplus has been absorbed, the surplus trend remains. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading shows a weak and volatile trend. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [15][16] Aluminum - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 205 yuan to 20,885 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. In September, the national electrolytic aluminum weighted average full - cost was 15,977 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4,798 yuan/ton. On October 13, the national aluminum ingot spot inventory was 642,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons [17] - **Trading Logic**: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the medium - term upward trend remains. The market may have large - amplitude fluctuations [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Be on the sidelines in the short - term for single - side trading, and the medium - term trend is upward. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [21][22][23] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 20,335 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [25] - **Related Information**: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. On October 13, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi decreased by 703 tons, and the casting aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased by 2,503 tons [25][26] - **Trading Logic**: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in prices. Before the implementation of tariffs is clear, the negative impact of macro - sentiment on aluminum products is significant. The price will be weak, and scrap aluminum prices may support the spot price [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to tariff policy developments for single - side trading. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [28][29][31] Zinc - **Market Review**: On October 13, Shanghai Zinc 2511 dropped 0.58% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced positions by 2,771 lots to 212,600 lots. The spot market trading was light [32] - **Related Information**: As of October 13, the national zinc ingot inventory was 163,100 tons, an increase of 21,700 tons from September 29 [33] - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc smelters increased production, and consumption did not improve significantly. The domestic price was under pressure, while the LME price was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may continue [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Close profitable short positions and wait for the export window to open to short again. Keep arbitrage on hold and close out the sold out - of - the - money call options [35][37] Lead - **Market Review**: On October 13, Shanghai Lead 2511 dropped 0.18% to 17,095 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased positions by 5,004 lots to 82,700 lots. Part of the downstream replenished inventory, and the spot market had different purchasing attitudes [36] - **Related Information**: As of October 13, the national lead ingot social inventory was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from September 29. The electric bicycle trade - in policy in Changsha and Shaoyang will be suspended on October 20 [39] - **Logic Analysis**: From September to mid - October, domestic lead production was relatively low. The inventory decreased during the National Day. The supply is weaker than demand currently, but the supply may increase in the second half of October, and the price may fall after rising [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise in the short - term but fall after rising. Keep arbitrage on hold and sell out - of - the - money call options [41] Nickel - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 2,080 yuan to 121,410 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,785 lots. Spot premiums changed [43] - **Related Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and daily price limit for nickel futures on October 14. Some Indonesian mining companies resumed production. Goldman Sachs predicted that nickel prices would drop by 6% by December 2026 [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Due to the lack of profit - taking and Trump's remarks, the decline was relatively mild. The "de - globalization" trend and the surplus pattern will lead to increased volatility and a lower center of oscillation [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of the main contract. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 205 yuan to 12,655 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 28,538 lots. The spot price range was given [51] - **Important Information**: Indonesia won the stainless - steel anti - dumping lawsuit against the EU, which is expected to boost exports. The national stainless - steel social inventory increased during the holiday [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The escalation of the Sino - US trade war affected external demand, and the inventory increased. The price was under pressure, and the market was waiting to see the inventory digestion this week [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price will weaken. Keep arbitrage on hold [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 282,110 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The spot price dropped, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [57] - **Related Information**: The US postponed the release of CPI data. As of October 10, the national tin ingot inventory decreased by 568 tons compared with September 26 [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff remarks led to a price drop. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption recovery [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Keep options on hold [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production capacity in Xinjiang decreased, and the production capacity in the east increased. The southwest may reduce production in November [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: The production decreased in Xinjiang and increased in the east. The southwest will reduce production in November. The demand is strong in the short - term, and the price may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions. There is no arbitrage and option strategy currently [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production increased in October, and the silicon wafer production decreased [70][71] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increased and the demand decreased in October. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November is the core driver of the price callback. The rumored state - purchase may limit the callback space [71] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Try to go long near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Hold the reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts. Buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 780 yuan to 72,500 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,306 lots. The spot price dropped [74] - **Important Information**: A lithium project in Jiangxi had major changes. In September, the sales of new - energy vehicles and the production of ternary materials increased [76] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply growth rate is lower than the demand in October, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, supporting the price. Consider closing short positions and going long if the price falls below 70,000 yuan [76] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds and close short positions if the price falls below 70,000 yuan. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [77][78][79]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 10 月 13 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽苹果白糖研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数下跌 0.43%至 1041 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.14%至 282.5 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.ANEC：2025 年 10 月份巴西大豆出口量估计为 712 万吨，比去年 10 月份的 443 万吨增长 60.7%，也高于今年 9 月份的 697 万吨。 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 棉禽研究：王玺圳 期货从业证号： F03118729 投资咨询证号：Z0022817 油脂研究：张盼盼 期货从业证号： F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 2.油世界：正在出口到中国的南美豆的增加使得 25/26 年度巴西和阿根廷 9 至 2 月期间的压榨量明显下降。预计 9 至 2 月期间美 ...