Core Insights - The U.S. energy sector, particularly oil and gas, has been severely impacted by the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, leading to a significant reduction in energy exports to China [1][4][5] Energy Imports from the U.S. - China has almost completely stopped importing three major energy sources from the U.S.: coal, crude oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) as of June [1][4] - In June, China did not import any crude oil from the U.S. for the first time in nearly three years, while the value of coal imports from the U.S. dropped to just a few hundred dollars compared to over $90 million in June of the previous year [1][4] - The U.S. LNG exports to China have also been zero for four consecutive months, indicating a significant decline in trade [1][4] Tariff Impacts - The Chinese government imposed tariffs on U.S. energy products, including a 15% tariff on coal and LNG, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, as a countermeasure to the trade war [1][5] - The high tariffs have made U.S. energy products less economically viable for Chinese buyers, leading to a strategic shift towards other suppliers [5][6] Market Dynamics - The share of U.S. LNG in China's imports has decreased from 11% in 2021 to just 6% last year, reflecting a broader trend of diversification in energy sourcing [4][6] - China is increasingly sourcing oil from countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, with the U.S. barely making it into the top ten suppliers [5][6] Long-term Implications - Experts suggest that the cessation of U.S. crude oil imports by China may have long-lasting effects, with Chinese importers unlikely to sign new contracts for U.S. LNG [4][6] - The geopolitical tensions and U.S. sanctions are prompting China to enhance its domestic energy production and seek alternative energy sources, reducing reliance on U.S. imports [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - HelloBaby's parent company, 聚智科技, is seeking to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its second attempt after a previous application expired [1][2]. Financial Performance - 聚智科技 reported revenues of approximately 191 million, 348 million, and 462 million yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 82.67% and 32.76% for the latter two years [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 35 million, 63 million, and 94 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 82.11% and 49.21% [2]. Market Dependency - The company attributes its revenue growth to its own brand sales of baby monitors in the U.S., primarily through Amazon, with over 90% of its revenue coming from overseas [3][8]. - In 2024, revenue from North America was 374 million yuan, accounting for 80.7% of total revenue, while revenue from Europe was 75 million yuan, making up 15.8% [3]. Marketing and Advertising Expenditure - 聚智科技's marketing and advertising expenses were approximately 17 million, 29.3 million, 45.9 million, and 16.8 million yuan for the years 2022 to 2024 and the first four months of 2025 [4]. - A significant portion of this expenditure was directed towards Amazon, with a 136.8% increase in sponsored ads from 2022 to 2023 and a further 75.1% increase in 2024 [5]. Sales Performance on Amazon - The number of ad impressions and clicks for 聚智科技's products on Amazon saw significant growth, with impressions reaching approximately 238 million, 444 million, and 570 million for the years 2022 to 2024 [6]. - Sales revenue from Amazon was approximately 163 million, 316 million, and 442 million yuan for the same years, representing about 85.4%, 90.8%, and 95.6% of total revenue [6]. Market Share - 聚智科技 holds a 38.7% market share among online sellers of baby monitors exported to the U.S., ranking third among all exporters based on the number of units sold [7]. Trade Risks - The company faces increased risks due to the U.S.-China trade tensions, with potential tariffs on its products reaching up to 30% [8][10]. - Despite a revenue increase of approximately 5.63% in the first four months of 2025, net profit declined by 15.15% compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. Pricing Strategy - In response to the tariffs, 聚智科技 raised its product prices in the U.S. from approximately $70-$80 to $80-$100, resulting in a potential decrease in sales volume [10][11]. Future Outlook - The company has stockpiled approximately 266,000 baby monitors in U.S. warehouses to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which should sustain sales for about three to four months [11]. - The long-term impact of tariffs and market conditions remains uncertain, raising questions about the company's future strategy post-tariff exemption period [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles revolves around the upcoming meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary and Chinese officials to discuss the potential extension of the tariff suspension period, indicating a constructive dialogue in U.S.-China trade relations [1][5][12] - The U.S. is under pressure to avoid the automatic restoration of tariffs on August 12, which could lead to a significant increase in consumer prices and public discontent, as tariffs could reach up to 160% on certain goods [3][10][18] - The U.S. government is facing domestic challenges, including volatility in government bonds and the potential negative impact on economic policies like the tax cuts, if the trade war escalates [3][10] Group 2 - The discussions include topics such as China's shift from an export-driven economy to one focused on domestic consumption, which the U.S. views as a way to limit China's market impact [5][12] - The U.S. is attempting to pressure China into compliance with sanctions against Russia by discussing energy purchases, indicating a strategic leverage in negotiations [5][12] - The U.S. has been proactive in announcing trade talks, reflecting its urgency to manage domestic pressures and the strategic implications of its trade relationship with China [7][10][12] Group 3 - The articles highlight the significant reliance of the U.S. on Chinese manufacturing, with a notable percentage of goods sold in major retailers like Walmart being sourced from China, emphasizing the interconnectedness of the two economies [18][20] - The narrative suggests that the U.S. is grappling with its declining global dominance as China rises, leading to a more aggressive stance in trade and military posturing [12][25] - The discussions around tariffs and trade negotiations are framed as a reflection of the U.S.'s internal political dynamics and its struggle to maintain its position as a global leader [12][25]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has confirmed a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on Chinese anode-grade graphite, raising global concerns about the trajectory of U.S.-China trade relations [1] Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy - The U.S. trade policy has shown inconsistency, with past exemptions on tariffs aimed at alleviating domestic cost pressures and easing tensions with trade partners [3] - The recent decision to impose high tariffs on Chinese graphite appears abrupt, leading to confusion among global trade participants [3] - U.S. policymakers seem to lack a coherent long-term strategy, influenced by short-term interests and political considerations [3] Group 2: China's Role in Graphite Industry - China plays a crucial role in the global graphite industry, possessing abundant graphite resources and maintaining high production levels [4] - The U.S. heavily relies on China for graphite imports, with 59% of natural graphite and 68% of synthetic graphite sourced from China [4] - In the specific area of anode graphite, the U.S. is almost entirely dependent on Chinese imports due to stringent processing and purification technology requirements [4] Group 3: U.S. Interests Behind Tariffs - The imposition of high tariffs on Chinese graphite reflects a clear intention to protect domestic industries facing competition from China's high-quality and low-cost products [6] - The tariffs are also seen as a means for the U.S. government to increase fiscal revenue amid financial challenges [6] - Politically, the tariff strategy may serve to demonstrate a tough stance against China, appealing to certain interest groups, despite potential negative impacts on the U.S. economy [6] Group 4: China's Response and Strategy - China possesses significant advantages in its graphite industry, including a complete industrial system, advanced technology, and large production capacity [7] - In response to U.S. tariffs, China can explore other international markets and utilize various policy tools to balance trade relations [7] - China aims to strengthen international cooperation and diversify its trade partnerships to enhance its influence in global supply chains [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of U.S.-China trade relations remains uncertain, with the recent tariff actions potentially destabilizing global supply chains and harming U.S. businesses and consumers in the long run [9] - The U.S. reliance on tariffs may not address underlying structural issues related to its industrial competitiveness and could provoke backlash from trade partners [9] - China is encouraged to maintain strategic focus on technological development and market diversification to solidify its position in the global supply chain [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating trade policies of the Trump administration towards China, highlighting the initial aggressive stance followed by a recent shift towards a more conciliatory approach, particularly in light of economic pressures within the U.S. [1][3][11] Group 1: Trade Policy Evolution - Initially, Trump adopted a hardline approach against China, driven by a significant trade deficit of over $370 billion, which he viewed as detrimental to the U.S. economy [4][5] - The trade war escalated rapidly, with the U.S. imposing tariffs and attempting to disrupt China's economic stability, leading to a reactive stance from China [4][5] - After a prolonged negotiation, a trade agreement was reached in 2019, where China committed to purchasing an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. goods [5][7] Group 2: Recent Changes in Strategy - Following a second term in office, Trump attempted to reinitiate a trade war, increasing tariffs to 125%, but faced unexpected resistance from a more resilient Chinese economy [9][10] - In response to China's countermeasures, including increased tariffs on U.S. products and restrictions on rare earth exports, Trump was compelled to reconsider his approach and reduce tariffs to alleviate domestic economic pressures [10][11] - The absence of China from a recent list of countries subject to new tariffs indicates a significant shift in Trump's strategy, signaling a desire to ease tensions and restore trade relations [13][14] Group 3: Future Considerations - Despite the current thaw in relations, there remains a potential for renewed trade tensions as Trump's underlying business mindset and America's hegemonic tendencies persist [16] - Continuous strengthening of China's economic capabilities is essential for maintaining resilience against potential future pressures from the U.S. [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S. has limited leverage in trade negotiations with China, primarily relying on high-end chips, while China has found alternatives for most products previously imported from the U.S., particularly in agricultural products [1] - In the first half of 2025, Sino-U.S. trade showed a significant decline, with total trade value dropping to 2.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, including a 9.9% drop in exports from China to the U.S. and a 7.7% drop in imports from the U.S. [1] - The second quarter saw a sharp decline in bilateral trade, with a drop of 20.8% due to the U.S.'s "reciprocal tariff" policy, heavily impacting agricultural trade [1] Group 2 - In June 2025, there were signs of recovery in Sino-U.S. trade, with import and export values rising from less than 300 billion yuan in May to over 350 billion yuan, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [1] - China's imports of soybeans from Brazil reached 10.62 million tons in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 86.6% of total soybean imports for that month, while imports from the U.S. were only 1.58 million tons, despite a 21% increase [4] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a 37% decline in soybean exports to China compared to 2018, while Brazil's exports to China increased by 21% during the same period [4] Group 3 - The price advantage of Brazilian soybeans, which are $200 cheaper per ton than U.S. soybeans, is reshaping the global food trade landscape, while U.S. farmers face a survival crisis [6] - A quarter of U.S. farmers are on the brink of bankruptcy due to unsold soybeans, prompting the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate an emergency inventory program [5] - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration led to a significant shift in China's sourcing strategies, with a rapid pivot towards Brazilian soybeans and a decrease in rare earth exports from the U.S. [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing isolationist policies of the United States, drawing parallels to China's historical isolationism, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade war with China [1][3]. - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration in 2017, marked by the "301 investigation," has escalated into significant tariffs on Chinese goods, impacting both economies and leading to a complex interplay of retaliatory measures [4][5]. - The U.S. has implemented strict export controls on high-end chips to China, significantly affecting Chinese tech companies, especially in the smartphone sector, and revealing underlying issues within the U.S. industrial landscape [6][7]. Group 2 - The article highlights the consequences of the U.S. outsourcing low-end manufacturing to other countries, leading to a hollowing out of its manufacturing base and increased reliance on foreign supply chains, which poses risks to national security [9][11]. - Despite facing significant challenges due to U.S. restrictions, Chinese tech companies have shown resilience and innovation, with firms like Huawei and SMIC making notable advancements in chip technology [12][13]. - The U.S. government's attempts to maintain technological dominance through sanctions and media narratives reflect its anxiety over China's growing capabilities in high-tech sectors [14][15]. Group 3 - The eventual decision by the U.S. to lift the ban on chip exports to China indicates a strategic retreat in the face of China's advancements, as American companies seek to regain market share in a competitive landscape [15][16]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards domestically developed chips in China signifies a changing market dynamic, where U.S. companies may struggle to maintain their previous levels of influence [16][18]. - The article concludes that China's technological rise is likely to continue unabated, posing ongoing challenges to U.S. technological hegemony [18].

Core Viewpoint - The situation regarding Li Ka-shing's sale of ports has seen a significant development, with BlackRock inviting China COSCO Shipping Group to participate in the acquisition of 43 ports, indicating a shift in dynamics [2][19]. Group 1: Transaction Background - Li Ka-shing's plan to sell 43 ports to BlackRock has faced considerable backlash, with accusations of selling strategic assets to foreign entities [7][8]. - The Hong Kong government, including current and former leaders, has expressed strong concerns about the transaction, emphasizing that any deal must comply with legal regulations [9][10]. - Li Ka-shing's son, Li Zeju, stated that proceeds from the sale would be reinvested in Hong Kong and mainland China, which was met with skepticism by the media [11][12]. Group 2: Government and Market Response - The Chinese government has indicated its intention to protect fair competition, confirming the involvement of state-owned enterprises in the transaction [4][5]. - The National Market Supervision Administration has announced that it will conduct a legal review of the sale, further complicating the deal for Li Ka-shing [10]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The ports in question control 21% of China's shipping volume and are critical to national shipping security, making the sale a matter of national interest amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [25]. - The potential sale has been characterized as a strategic move that aligns with U.S. efforts to decouple supply chains from China, raising concerns about the implications for national interests [25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The involvement of COSCO in the acquisition process suggests a potential shift in the balance of power regarding the transaction, as the Chinese company holds significant leverage [20][21]. - The future of Li Ka-shing's assets remains uncertain, with indications that the era of his dominance in Hong Kong may be coming to an end [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market has reflected OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, and the IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025. Considering the downstream peak season, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the near term [10]. - As asphalt gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. - Given the high inventory and weak demand, it is expected that PP will fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [13]. - Due to high inventory and slow downstream recovery, it is expected that plastics will fluctuate at a low level in the near term. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15]. - PVC is under great pressure before the demand is substantially improved. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near term [17]. - Domestic soybean oil is under supply pressure and weak demand, and its price is expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the final bio - fuel obligation volume [18]. - Although the domestic soybean meal inventory is high, there may be a large gap in the supply of imported soybeans in the long term. It is expected that the price of domestic soybean meal may rise. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and Sino - US trade negotiations [20]. - Under the weak balance of supply and demand and the increasing policy expectations, it is expected that rebar will fluctuate strongly in the short term [21]. - It is expected that hot - rolled coils will mainly fluctuate in a range in the short term [23]. - It is expected that coking coal will mainly fluctuate in the short term [24]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of news [26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Varieties Carbonate Lithium - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium remained flat compared with the previous trading day. The supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. The cost side supports the upward trend. Affected by the futures market and policies, the market sentiment has risen, but the futures price deviates from the fundamentals. Although it maintains a strong pattern, there is a risk of decline [3]. Copper - The copper price was supported by the expected weakening of the US dollar. The supply shortage expectation has been alleviated, and the demand of downstream industries is weak, except for the new energy industry. After the cooling of the sentiment of arbitrageurs rushing to the US, the inventory in other regions has increased, which puts pressure on the copper price. The 50% copper tariff in the US may cause the market to decline further [5]. Futures Market Overview - As of July 15, domestic futures contracts showed mixed trends. Polysilicon and logs rose significantly, while container shipping to Europe and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In terms of capital flow, some stock index futures contracts had capital inflows, while some metal futures contracts had capital outflows [7]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East has eased, but attention should be paid to subsequent developments. The US crude oil inventory has decreased, but the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will increase production in August, and is considering suspending further production increases from October. OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast. Considering the peak consumption season and the threat of US sanctions on Russia, it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near term [10]. Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to increase in July. The downstream construction rate has mostly declined, and the inventory is at a low level. Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the global trade war, the increase in crude oil prices is limited. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream construction rate of PP has declined, and the enterprise construction rate has decreased. The inventory is at a high level. Affected by the global trade war and the situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price has fluctuated. Considering the new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, it is expected that PP will fluctuate at a low level [13]. Plastic - The plastic construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate is at a low level. The inventory is at a high level. The US - China trade situation has both positive and negative impacts. Considering the new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, it is expected that plastics will fluctuate at a low level in the near term [15]. PVC - The PVC construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate is low. The inventory is high. The export is restricted, and the demand in the real estate industry is weak. With new production capacity coming online and weak demand, it is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near term [16][17]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil price has shown a strong range - bound trend. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the production of biodiesel may support the demand, the decline in international crude oil prices may reduce the demand for soybean oil as a bio - fuel. It is expected that the domestic soybean oil price will remain under pressure [18]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal price has shown an upward trend. The supply is abundant, and the domestic inventory is high. However, there may be a large gap in the supply of imported soybeans in the long term, and the market speculation may drive up the price. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and Sino - US trade negotiations [20]. Rebar - The rebar price has rebounded. The supply reduction is limited, the demand shows regional differentiation, the inventory pressure is controllable, and the policy expectation is increasing. Considering the cost support, it is expected that the rebar will fluctuate strongly in the short term [21]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil price has rebounded. The supply is resilient, the demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the inventory is increasing. Although the cost provides support, the actual impact of policies needs time to verify. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil will mainly fluctuate in a range in the short term [23]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price has fluctuated. The supply will increase with the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance, but the second - round price increase expectation supports the market. The downstream steel mill profit is good, and the iron water production is still high. It is expected that the coking coal will mainly fluctuate in the short term [24]. Urea - The urea price has shown a weak upward trend. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, but the decline rate has slowed down. It is expected that the urea will fluctuate weakly in the short term [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of domestic futures is complex, with different trends for various varieties. For example, the prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical risks, and policy changes. Overall, most commodities are in a state of oscillation, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors such as policy implementation and supply - demand changes [3][4][9] Summary by Variety Carbonate Lithium - Price: The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 64,950 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade is 63,350 yuan/ton, both up 50 yuan/ton from the previous workday [3] - Supply: The weekly capacity utilization rate is 62%, up from last week. The output in June was 74,000 tons, with inventory continuously increasing [3] - Demand: The downstream is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The operating load of battery material factories increased in July, and the consumption data of new - energy vehicles is on an upward trend [3] - Market: The market sentiment has cooled, and the market is oscillating strongly [3] Coking Coal - Price: The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) is 1,020 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 783 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [4] - Supply: The import volume of coal from Mongolia is expected to increase after the holiday. The domestic coal production affected by the safety month has also recovered. The daily output of coal washing plants has increased by about 0.8 tons [4][5] - Demand: The coke price increase has been implemented, driving up the upstream price. The downstream steel mills have good profits, and the coking coal has stronger resistance to decline than coke [5] - Market: The supply support is gradually weakening, but the short - term market is oscillating without a pessimistic outlook [5] Copper - Price: The price of Shanghai copper has declined [9] - Supply: The copper concentrate inventory has increased, and the tight supply expectation has been alleviated. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to increase [9] - Demand: The apparent consumption of electrolytic copper has increased, but the downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and only emerging industries such as new energy are performing well [9] - Market: The short - term price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited [9] Crude Oil - Price: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [10][11] - Supply: OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The US crude oil inventory is at a low level [10][11] - Demand: It has entered the seasonal peak travel season [10] - Market: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, but there are still uncertainties such as sanctions and the Iran nuclear agreement [10][11] Asphalt - Price: It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12] - Supply: The asphalt production is expected to be 2.542 million tons in July, with an increase of 6.0% month - on - month and 23.6% year - on - year [12] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has mostly declined, and the terminal project funds are still restricted [12] - Market: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, and the crude oil price increase is limited [12] PP - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a low level [14] - Supply: The new capacity of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's No. 4 unit was put into operation in June, and the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly [14] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined, and the new orders are limited [14] - Market: The inventory pressure is large, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [14] Plastic - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future [15][17] - Supply: The new capacity of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's No. 2 HDPE unit has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly [15][17] - Demand: The downstream operating rate is at a low level, and the new orders are followed up slowly [15][17] - Market: The inventory pressure is large, and attention should be paid to the global trade war [15][17] PVC - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future [18] - Supply: The operating rate has decreased, and new capacities such as Wanhua Chemical are about to be put into operation [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate is low, and the export is restricted [18] - Market: The inventory pressure is large, and the demand has not been substantially improved [18] Soybean Oil - Price: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but there is a callback pressure [19][20] - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean oil has increased, and the supply is loose [19] - Demand: The domestic consumption is weak, and the consumption in the bio - fuel field may decrease [19][20] - Market: Attention should be paid to the crude oil price fluctuation and inventory accumulation [19][20] Soybean Meal - Price: It oscillates strongly, deviating from the price trend of US soybeans [21] - Supply: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has increased [21] - Demand: The consumption demand has increased [21] - Market: Attention should be paid to the US trade agreement [21] Rebar - Price: It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand inflection points [22][23] - Supply: The production reduction is continuing, but the supply contraction is slow [22][23] - Demand: The demand is weak, and the demand toughness is weakening [22][23] - Market: The cost support is in a game, and the market is in a seasonal weak state [22][23] Hot Rolled Coil - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25] - Supply: The supply pressure has increased slightly [24] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and exports may shrink [24][25] - Market: The fundamentals are moderately weak [24][25] Urea - Price: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [26] - Supply: The daily output is around 200,000 tons, and new capacities are being put into operation [26] - Demand: The agricultural demand in the north is weakening, and the downstream is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [26] - Market: The market is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation [26]