期货市场交易指引 2025 年 10 月 16 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 建议观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 逢低买入 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏强 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 ...

报道称，相比于英伟达、高通等被中方调查的美企，苹果公司在中美贸易战中受到的影响相对较轻。此 前，这家美国科技巨头已向特朗普政府作出过投资承诺。 报道援引一位驻上海的政府事务顾问的话称，美国企业在中美问题上普遍谨慎，担心若表现得"过于亲 华"，可能会激怒白宫，从而致使其美国国内业务被牵连。 与此同时，美企也不希望被中方视为态度不诚恳，毕竟此前已作出"在中国，为中国"的承诺。 近年来，苹果尝试将部分生产能力转移至印度，但依旧高度依赖中国的供应商和工厂。 今年5月，特朗普敲打说，他对库克感到不满，并批评了苹果将生产线从中国分散至其他地区的做法， 敦促其将生产重心转向美国本土。8月，苹果宣布，将在美国追加1000亿美元投资。 而在中国市场，今年3月，苹果宣布一笔新的投资基金，计划扩大在中国的清洁能源产能。这笔投资达 7.2亿元人民币，将助力苹果在2030年实现供应链100%使用可再生能源。 据工业和信息化部网站消息，10月15日，工信部部长李乐成在北京会见美国苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆· 库克，双方就苹果公司在华业务发展、加强电子信息领域合作等议题进行交流。 路透社注意到，库克在会见中表示将继续加大在华投资，这表明其"无 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate is currently hovering just below the 1.1650 level, having moved away from recent lows of 1.1540, amidst a moderately bullish market environment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite the escalation of the US-China trade war and ongoing volatility, the Euro/USD remains "heavy" and lacks a clear directional trend [3] - The possibility of the Euro breaking strongly above 1.20 still exists, but the current conditions do not support this [3] - The stock market continues to reach new highs, creating a significant paradox as investors remain cautious and avoid making large bets in the forex market [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark interest rate again is high, but the next steps remain unclear due to inflation concerns and potential escalation of tariff issues [3] - The US labor market continues to face challenges, which is one of the main issues currently [3] Group 3: Currency Trends - The dollar has regained dominance and tested the 1.15 level, confirming previous analyses that favored the dollar [3] - However, a significant rebound for the dollar may not be feasible at this time, as breaking below the 1.10 level seems unlikely [3] - The exchange rate is expected to continue consolidating around current levels in the coming weeks [3] Group 4: Upcoming Events - Notable speeches from Federal Reserve officials are on today's agenda, as there are no significant macroeconomic data releases [3] - The preference is to maintain current levels without significant changes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights an increase in demand for defensive asset allocation amid rising volatility risks in the market [2][5][6] - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced significant declines, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.73%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 3.62% [2][4] - The report notes a substantial trading volume in the market, with a total turnover of HKD 398.91 billion and a short-selling amount of HKD 63.17 billion, representing 17.49% of the total trading volume [2][4] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of the U.S.-China trade war, indicating that recent developments have led to increased market volatility, particularly following the announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. [5][7] - The U.S. stock market experienced its most severe sell-off since April, with major indices plunging due to President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, raising the total tariff rate to approximately 140% [7][8] - The report emphasizes that the trade war may enter a turbulent new phase, with both sides prepared for further escalation, which could complicate the process of reaching a trade agreement [8][9] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, noting that semiconductor stocks faced significant declines, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC experiencing drops of 13.08% and 8.48% respectively [4] - Conversely, defensive sectors such as banking stocks saw gains, with China Merchants Bank rising by 4.7% and Chongqing Bank increasing by 3.58% amid market uncertainties [4][5] - The report also mentions the performance of gold as a safe-haven asset, which rose by 0.8% in response to market turmoil, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer investments [7][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of polyolefins remain in a loose pattern, and the polyolefin market continues to be weak. For PE, post - holiday inventory accumulation, weakened cost support from falling crude oil, and new device production increases drive the price down. For PP, it is mainly dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the cost support is weak [1][2][3]. - Suggested strategies include cautious short - selling hedging for both L and PP in the single - side trading; L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 reverse spreads in the inter - period trading; and narrowing the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high in the inter - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6918 yuan/ton (-65), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6602 yuan/ton (-91). The LL North China spot price is 6970 yuan/ton (-30), the LL East China spot price is 7000 yuan/ton (-80), and the PP East China spot price is 6640 yuan/ton (-30). The LL North China basis is 52 yuan/ton (+35), the LL East China basis is 82 yuan/ton (-15), and the PP East China basis is 38 yuan/ton (+61) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%). PE oil - based production profit is 461.2 yuan/ton (-81.6), PP oil - based production profit is -188.8 yuan/ton (-81.6), and PDH - based PP production profit is 110.3 yuan/ton (+209.4) [1]. 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins No specific data analysis provided in the given text. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL import profit is -28.2 yuan/ton (-39.0), PP import profit is -524.0 yuan/ton (+23.8), and PP export profit is 19.9 US dollars/ton (+2.3) [1]. 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 35.6% (+2.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.9% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.7% (+0.5%) [1]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - For PE, post - holiday inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. For PP, there is an expectation of inventory digestion after the holiday, and traders are actively selling at discounted prices [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but the Fed's outlook is contradictory. The short - term prices of gold and silver are at historical highs, with potential for significant high - level fluctuations. For base metals, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, macro - policies, and trade frictions. In the black industry, the supply - demand relationship shows structural differentiation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors like production, demand, and policies. The energy and chemical market is facing a situation where supply is increasing and demand is complex, with different trends for different products [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Category Gold Market - **Market Performance**: International gold prices denominated in London Gold rose and then fell, closing at $4141 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Powell's speech was interpreted as opening the door for Fed rate cuts. Fed Governor Bowman expected two rate cuts by the end of the year. There was an inflow of funds into domestic gold ETFs. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2 tons to 1233 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 2.2 tons to 72.2 tons. London's September gold inventory increased by 39 tons to 8839 tons. The global largest gold ETF - SPDR's holdings increased by 3 tons to 1021 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long gold positions and hold long silver positions cautiously due to potential high - level fluctuations [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Powell said the Fed would end balance - sheet reduction in the next few months. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the spot premium of refined copper in East and South China varied [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a new buying opportunity after sufficient consolidation [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.12% to 20860 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the progress of APEC on November 1st [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.53% to 2805 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants maintained high - yield status, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and focus on the impact of the heating season production restrictions and alumina plant shutdowns [2][3]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc 2510 contract decreased by 0.02% to 22,200 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc inventory increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure persisted, and the production in October was expected to increase to over 620,000 tons. Consumption did not exceed expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high prices [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead 2509 contract decreased by 0.29% to 17,050 yuan/ton. The domestic lead inventory decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Recycled lead smelters resumed production after maintenance, and the consumer side showed resilience. The lithium - battery export control policy was expected to drive some consumption back to lead - acid batteries [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% to 8520 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased, and production was expected to decrease in the southwest in late October. Social inventory increased slightly, and demand was supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, as the price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9300 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 72,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand from downstream products such as lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. The market was expected to maintain a tight balance in October [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the Sino - US leadership negotiations. Consider short - selling the far - month contracts due to the expected oversupply next year [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract price increased by 2.56% to 49990 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand from downstream products was stable. The photovoltaic installation in August decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the progress of the state - purchase platform and the 11 - 12 spread. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for low - risk investors [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated weakly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Short - term tin ore supply was tight, but there was an expectation of future supply loosening. Traditional demand was a drag, and global visible inventory continued to decrease [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main rebar contract 2601 closed at 3052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand was weak, and production was expected to decline due to low profits. Plate demand was stable [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short rebar positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3020 - 3090 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main iron ore contract 2601 closed at 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Iron ore supply and demand were marginally neutral to strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the historical average [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with the I01 reference range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main coking coal contract 2601 closed at 1143.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits were stabilizing, and the first round of price increases was implemented. Supply - side inventories were differentiated, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1110 - 1170 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans had a slight production decrease, and South America was expected to increase production. US soybean demand was differentiated, with increased crushing but weak export demand due to tariff policies [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans were weak and range - bound. The domestic market was loose in the short term, with high mid - term uncertainty depending on the Sino - US tariff policy [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices rebounded slightly, while spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Continuous rain in North China affected corn harvesting, increasing the risk of quality damage and storage difficulty. New - crop production was expected to increase, and costs decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward due to the pressure of new - crop listing [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell in the short term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased seasonally in September, and exports increased. The market continued to accumulate inventory in September with an expectation of future seasonal production decline [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It was difficult to trade edible oils unilaterally, and the P contract was suitable for reverse spreads. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight US cotton futures prices oscillated downward, and international crude oil prices continued to weaken [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's 25/26 cotton production was expected to decrease by 1%. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. China's textile and clothing exports from January to September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a trading strategy in the range of 13200 - 13600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rebounded slightly, and most spot prices remained stable [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Post - holiday demand weakened seasonally, while supply continued to increase. Egg inventory accumulated, and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices were expected to weaken [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, while spot prices rebounded slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Post - holiday demand decreased significantly, and pig slaughter was expected to increase from October to November, increasing the supply - demand gap [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices were expected to weaken [7]. Energy and Chemical Market LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased but at a slower pace, and demand improved seasonally in the agricultural film sector [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as new plants were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4963, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased with new plant production. Demand was weak due to low downstream start - up rates and negative real - estate indicators. Social inventory reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads due to the weak supply - demand balance [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX was $791 per ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4440 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was relieved in the short term but large in the long term. Polyester factory load was high, and terminal orders improved structurally [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: PX prices were expected to oscillate weakly, and short - sell the processing fee of PTA's far - month contracts [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The RU2601 contract closed at 14845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai raw material prices weakened, and rubber inventories in Qingdao changed. Spot prices were stable to weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously or wait and see due to the lack of short - term positive factors [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1139, a decrease of 3.4% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass supply was high, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand was weak due to negative real - estate indicators [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the weak supply - demand balance [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6550 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as new plants were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The MEG spot price in East China was 4171 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 69 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure was high after new plant production. Import supply was expected to increase. Polyester factory load was high, and terminal orders improved structurally [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term due to low inventory and macro - volatility. Short - sell at high prices in the long term due to inventory accumulation pressure [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell again due to Sino - US trade uncertainties and weak fundamentals [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure increased as multiple countries planned to increase production, while demand decreased seasonally and was affected by trade frictions [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short SC positions [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal to high levels, and downstream demand was weak despite the seasonal peak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as supply increased, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1234, a decrease of 0.7% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash supply was high, and inventory accumulated during the National Day. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was stable but with high inventory [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the supply - demand balance [10]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The SH01 contract closed at 2429, a decrease of 1% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Caustic soda spot prices stopped falling, and futures prices continued to decline. Inventory accumulated, and non - aluminum demand recovery was less than expected [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the supply - demand balance [10].

就在10月10日，美国总统特朗普还信誓旦旦地宣布，要从11月1日起对中国商品加征100%关税，摆出一副要硬刚到底的架势。 可谁能想到，这话说出来还 不到72小时，他就自己在社交媒体上改口了，连声说"美国不想伤害中国"，还想"帮助中国"。 这种180度大转弯，让全世界都看傻了眼。 更关键的是，中方这次直接不接美方的电话，用沉默表明了态度。 特朗普在10月10日那天高调宣布了他的新关税计划。 他这次没有像往常那样直接签总统令，而是把加税时间定在了11月1日，中间留了将近20天的空档。 明 眼人都能看出来，这是给双方谈判留余地。 特朗普当时还放狠话，要求中国在稀土出口等问题上让步，否则美国就要动手。 他的团队原本估计中方会像过去那样很快过来谈判，然后美国再找个台阶 下，宣布取消关税。 才过了不到三天，也就是10月12日，特朗普就在自己的社交账号上发了一段完全不同的内容。 他安慰美国民众"别担心中国"，还说一切都会好起来。 更让 人吃惊的是，他居然表示"美国不想伤害中国"，甚至说要"帮助中国"。 这种软话从一贯强硬的特朗普嘴里说出来，立即引起了广泛讨论。 不少美国媒体直接批评特朗普这是"露怯了"，因为以往他就算最后让 ...

美国财政部长贝森特在福克斯商业频道的那番话让我有点意外，不是因为他说了什么，而是因为这话出现的时间点太微妙了。就在几天前，他的老板特朗普 才在10月10日放话，要从11月1日开始对中国产品加征额外100%的关税。结果很快，口风就软了。贝森特说，"对华商品加征100%关税不一定要发生"，条 件是中国得取消稀土出口限制。 这已经不是一般的态度转变，而是一次急刹车 。你要知道，美国对稀土的依赖，是它自己都心虚的事。这不仅是有色金属的问题，这是整个高科技和军工产业链的命门。 有意思的是，特朗普在威胁加税后的两天里，社交媒体上的语气也变了。他甚至把中国加强稀土管制说成是中方"心情不好"。你细品，这句没什么建设性的 评论，反而透出一点不得不安抚市场的意味。 贝森特随后出现在国际货币基金组织2025年年会上，更明确地释放出信号，美国希望和中国保持密切沟通，美中双边峰会会继续如期举行。表面看是在求 稳，但结合近期中国的动作，你就会明白，这其实是因为美国心里清楚它的稀土软肋被掐住了。 稀土这个词，很多人觉得很遥远，其实离我们每天用的东西都很近。它包含17种特殊元素，是从国防武器到手机芯片、电动汽车马达都离不开的材料。美国 的导 ...

Group 1 - The trade deficit between the US and China is significantly lower than the figures claimed by Trump, with the actual deficit for 2024 estimated at around $295 billion, contrasting sharply with Trump's assertion of over $1 trillion [1][5] - Trump's approach to trade involves imposing tariffs on imports, particularly targeting countries with large trade deficits, which has led to increased tensions and retaliatory measures from China [3][12] - The first phase of the trade agreement between the US and China saw a low execution rate of only 58%, indicating a lack of commitment from both sides to make substantial concessions [5][10] Group 2 - The ongoing trade war has resulted in significant economic consequences for both the US and China, with estimates suggesting that Trump's tariff strategy could lead to a 1.3% decline in US GDP, costing American households an additional $1,300 annually [10][12] - China's response to the trade conflict has included a push for self-sufficiency in critical sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy, reflecting a strategic shift towards domestic production [10][12] - The trade dynamics have also affected global relationships, with Russia noting that the US underestimates China's role in the global market and its ability to maintain trade partnerships, particularly with Russia [7][14]

Core Viewpoint - The US-China trade dispute has escalated sharply, with China implementing rare earth export controls as a countermeasure, prompting President Trump to announce a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1 and export controls on "all critical software" [1][6]. Group 1: China's Countermeasures - China has announced stricter export controls on five types of medium and heavy rare earth products, related technologies, equipment, and raw materials, significantly increasing the scope and intensity of these controls [3]. - The Chinese Ministry of Transport has introduced a special port fee for US ships docking at Chinese ports, charging 400 yuan per net ton, which will increase annually, as a response to perceived discriminatory practices by the US [3][5]. Group 2: US Response and Market Impact - In response to China's measures, Trump has stated that there is no need for high-level talks and has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 100%, indicating a reliance on market leverage as a final strategy [6][10]. - The announcement of these tariffs led to a significant market reaction, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 1.90% and the Nasdaq Composite falling by 3.56%, particularly impacting the technology sector [8]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - China's use of rare earths as a strategic countermeasure not only retaliates against US actions but also positions China favorably in negotiations regarding high-tech industries, particularly in the global semiconductor supply chain [9][12]. - The trade conflict has evolved from a tariff battle to a struggle for control over the core of the high-tech industry supply chain, indicating a more intense and prolonged phase of US-China relations [12].