Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - Shanghai will implement eight financial opening measures to enhance cross-border trade and investment facilitation [12] - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with a month-on-month acceleration of 1.3 percentage points [12] - From January to May, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 19.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous four months [12] Group 2: Consumer and Production Trends - The passenger car market continues to show high growth, with average daily retail and wholesale numbers increasing by 22.7% and 38.0% year-on-year, respectively [17][19] - The film market saw a decline in box office revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% as of June 20 [19] - The construction chain shows insufficient recovery momentum, with the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities down by 4.4% year-on-year, although the number of transactions increased by 12.8% [18][61] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Agricultural product prices are under pressure, with the average wholesale price of pork down by 17.8% year-on-year, while the average price of six key fruits increased by 7.0% [77][79] - Industrial products generally declined, with the average price of thermal coal down by 29.9% year-on-year, and the average price of rebar down by 13.1% [85][87] Group 4: Bond Market and Institutional Behavior - As of June 20, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.50%, 1.64%, and 1.84%, respectively, showing a decline compared to June 13 [100] - The average duration of long-term bond funds has risen to approximately 5.0 years, reflecting a shift in institutional strategies towards long-duration investments [110][115] - The average duration of credit bond funds remains stable at around 2.3 years, indicating a focus on structural opportunities as credit spreads compress [111][115]

Core Viewpoint - Recent positive changes in fundamentals, liquidity, and central bank attitudes have led to an increase in bullish sentiment in the bond market, particularly for interest rate bonds, which are expected to continue performing well in the coming months [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The bond market is likely to remain in a bullish phase from June to August, driven by fiscal stimulus and a stable growth agenda, with monetary policy expected to maintain a loose stance [1] - The bond market is anticipated to shift towards interest rate bonds, suggesting that investors should maintain duration to await positive developments [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - The Hui'an Yutong Pure Bond Fund focuses on policy financial bonds, which offer higher yields and lower credit risk compared to other financial bonds, making it an attractive investment option [2] - Since its inception on June 22, 2022, the Hui'an Yutong Pure Bond Fund A has achieved a cumulative return of 11.96%, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 7.19% [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The Hui'an Yutong Pure Bond Fund employs a dual strategy of "bottom warehouse + trading" to capture stable coupon income while also engaging in opportunistic trading to enhance returns [2] - Short-term trading strategies suggest that investors should capitalize on the liquidity improvement following the end of the quarter, particularly focusing on long-term interest rate bonds [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, particularly regarding interest rates and fiscal policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Outlook**: The bond market is expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations in the second half of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.5% and 1.8% [2][3][11]. 2. **Monetary Policy**: There is an expectation that monetary policy will not undergo significant easing, with limited room for interest rate cuts and a potential 50 basis points for reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][7]. 3. **Fiscal Stimulus**: A new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion is anticipated, with 100 billion allocated for private investment, which is expected to have a significant multiplier effect on GDP [5][6]. 4. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the year is around 5%, with expectations that investment will precede consumption in driving this growth [6][5]. 5. **Impact of External Tariffs**: The negative impact of external tariffs on exports is expected to be less severe than previously anticipated, with a gradual improvement in data post-June [4][5]. 6. **Debt Supply**: The total supply of bonds is projected to be around 6.88 trillion, with a monthly net financing of approximately 1.15 trillion, which is stable compared to previous years [8][9]. 7. **Institutional Behavior**: Institutional behaviors are expected to influence the bond market significantly, with banks and insurance companies adjusting their strategies based on market conditions [10][12][17]. 8. **Credit Market Performance**: The credit market is expected to outperform interest rate products, with strategies suggested for public institutions to adopt diagonal strategies for credit yield [30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Consumer Spending**: The government has approved 300 billion for consumer spending, with 160 billion already in progress, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate consumption [6]. - **Long-term Rate Predictions**: Long-term interest rates are expected to gradually decline, potentially reaching below 1.5% by the end of 2025 or 2026, although significant downward movement is limited [29]. - **Market Sensitivity**: There is an increasing sensitivity of the macroeconomic environment to changes in the debt financial cycle, which may affect future predictions and risk assessments [32]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the bond market, monetary policy, fiscal measures, and broader economic implications.

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The credit demand is weak, but the growth rate of social financing is stable. The new loans in May 2025 decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The growth rate of M2 was stable month-on-month, and the growth rate of M1 rebounded. The social financing in May increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing was stable. It is expected that the new loans in 2025 will increase slightly year-on-year, the net financing of government bonds will expand significantly year-on-year, the social financing will increase significantly year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing may rise first and then fall, with an estimated year-end growth rate of about 8.3%. Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Credit Demand Analysis - In May 2025, the new loans decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The new individual loans were +540 million, including -208 million in short-term individual loans and +746 million in medium - and long - term individual loans, with a slight year-on-year increase. The new short - term corporate loans were +1.1 billion, the new medium - and long - term corporate loans were +3.3 billion, and the bill financing was +746 million. Due to low capacity utilization in manufacturing, weak real estate investment, and limited infrastructure investment space, credit demand may be weak in the long term [2]. M1 and M2 Analysis - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and customer reserves of non - bank payment institutions on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of May 2025, the balance of the new - caliber M1 reached 108.9 trillion yuan. In May, the growth rate of the new - caliber M1 was 2.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and the growth rate of M2 was 7.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The growth rates of both the new and old M1 calibers have significantly rebounded since Q4 2024, reflecting an improvement in economic activity [2]. Social Financing Analysis - In May 2025, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase of 0.22 trillion yuan, mainly from the net financing of government bonds and corporate bonds. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy was 59.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.37 billion yuan; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills were - 11.62 billion yuan; the net financing of corporate bonds was +14.96 billion yuan; the net financing of government bonds was 1.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.67 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing at the end of May was 8.7%, the same as at the end of the previous month and 0.7 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the year [2]. Bond Investment Suggestion - Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored. The reduction of long - term time deposit interest rates of major banks in May 2025 is beneficial to credit bonds. The reduction of deposit interest rates is expected to promote the growth of wealth management scale, and the wealth management scale may increase significantly in July, further compressing credit spreads. In 2025, bond market investment needs to be cautious, and attention should be paid to stock and convertible bond investment opportunities and Hong Kong - listed bank stocks [2].

Group 1 - Company bond ETF (511030) has increased by 0.01%, reaching a latest price of 105.95 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.14% over the past year as of June 12, 2025 [1] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF has reached 18.276 billion yuan, marking a new high since its establishment [1] - The company bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past five days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 2.732 billion yuan, averaging 546 million yuan in daily net inflow [1] Group 2 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) has also increased by 0.01%, with a latest price of 117.46 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.41% over the past three months as of June 12, 2025 [3] - The latest scale of the national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years is 1.431 billion yuan, with liquidity showing a turnover of 0.08% and a trading volume of 1.1958 million yuan [3] - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years has seen net inflows and outflows balance out, with a total of 28.1007 million yuan in net inflows over the past nine trading days [3] Group 3 - The national development bond ETF (159651) has increased by 0.02%, with a latest price of 106.14 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.96% over the past year as of June 12, 2025 [6] - The latest scale of the national development bond ETF is 1.071 billion yuan, with a liquidity turnover of 0.47% and a trading volume of 5.3492 million yuan [6] Group 4 - Analysts indicate that interest rates are fluctuating, maintaining a bullish outlook on 5-year credit bonds yielding over 2%, while the 10-year national debt yield has reached 1.65% [8] - The central bank's intentional easing has alleviated the pressure on large banks' liabilities, allowing them to significantly expand their bond investment scale [8] - The average duration of interest rate bonds has reached 5 years, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the bond market, supported by low fixed deposit rates for 3-5 year terms [8]

截至2025年6月10日 10:32，公司债ETF(511030)上涨0.02%，最新价报105.91元。拉长时间看，截至2025年6月9日，公司债ETF近1年累计上涨2.06%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手11.8%，成交20.69亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至6月9日，公司债ETF近1周日均成交19.85亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达175.24亿元，创成立以来新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.66亿份，创近1月新高。 虽然关税大降，但当前央行刻意宽松，与Q1判若两人，短期来看资金面无担忧，预计资金利率低位低波动。当前，我们对利率债中性，对信用偏多，看收 益率2%以上信用债利差压缩。 10Y国债不仅看资金面，更看经济预期。全A已新高，上证也涨回去了，港股银行屡创新高，恒生科技也涨回去大部分。我们看经济企稳，芬太尼关税也有 下调的可能，认为2025年利率债没有趋势性机会，如履薄冰。建议关注5Y信用债机会，攻守兼备，三五年定期存款利率低是支撑。重点跟踪后续央行是否 会收紧资金面。 平安基金债券ETF三剑客成员包括公司债ETF(511030)、国开债券ETF(159651)和国债 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 0 billion, 228.2 billion, and 166 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 0 billion, 137.4 billion, and 130 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds totaled an issuance scale of 243.1 billion, with a net financing amount of 50.1 billion. One new convertible bond was issued, expected to raise 300 million [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates rose last week, influenced by factors such as profit-taking sentiment among institutions, the effectiveness ruling on US tariffs, and the increase in certificate of deposit rates [2] Liquidity Tracking - The repo market maintained a loose funding environment last week, with a slight increase in certificate of deposit rates. The central bank announced a net withdrawal of 200 billion through reverse repos in May, without engaging in government bond transactions [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Relevant departments announced that several major financial policies will be released during the Lujiazui Financial Forum. In April, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises increased alongside rising profit margins, while inventory levels decreased. The manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.5, in line with expectations [4] Overseas Market - A US court ruled that Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs was "overreaching," and the Trump administration has appealed. The S&P 500 rose by 1.9% over the week, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by 10 basis points [5] Equity Market - The A-share market continued to favor small-cap stocks last week. Specifically, the Wind All A index fell by 0.83%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.48%, and the CSI 2000 index rose by 1.09%. A-share trading volume shrank, with an average daily turnover of 1.09 trillion, a decrease of 93.062 billion week-on-week. As of May 29, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 1,797.562 billion, slightly increasing by 722 million compared to May 22 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Recent increases in certificate of deposit rates may be related to the upcoming maturity of certificates in June. The month will also see government bond issuances and the maturity of various monetary policy tools, leading to concentrated funding demands, which may cause fluctuations in interbank market liquidity. However, typically, funding demands tend to ease at the beginning of the month. The recent adjustments in interest rate bonds due to institutional behavior have created opportunities that warrant attention, emphasizing the value of coupon assets. In the convertible bond sector, the market is entering a phase where fundamentals, policies, and US-China relations are relatively stable, suggesting that the pricing weight of individual bonds based on industry logic may continue to increase. Given the ongoing supply-demand imbalance for convertible bonds this year, and the fact that the average conversion premium across multiple parity ranges remains below the spring market levels, the valuation of convertible bonds is relatively supported, and their attractiveness for allocation has begun to recover since last week [7]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a slight upward trend due to a balanced and loose funding environment, with long-term bond yields rising slightly [1][2][4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 454.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan today [2] - The interbank funding rates have shown a decline, with DR001 around 1.41% and DR007 around 1.55% [2][3] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower at 1.67% but rebounded to around 1.675%, indicating a narrow fluctuation [4] - The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May was below expectations, contributing to a slight increase in the stock market [4] - Different sectors are showing divergent trends, with "new consumption" and "hard currency" stocks reaching new highs, while "old economy" sectors like coking coal continue to decline [4]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed overall weakness today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% at 3339.93 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.26%, the ChiNext down 0.31%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 0.41% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.01 trillion, an increase of 11 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Defensive sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, cash flow, and coal performed well, while sectors like semiconductors, automobiles, and military showed declines [1] Economic Indicators - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has seen minimal movement, with a slight increase of 0.46% since April 7. The yield on ten-year government bonds rose from 1.632% to 1.720%, indicating a price drop [1] - The bond market is expected to experience volatility in the short term, with limited downside risk. Long-term trends are influenced by fundamental and policy factors, particularly inflation and economic growth [3] Investment Dynamics - Investment, including real estate, consumer spending, and foreign trade, remains the main driver of China's economic growth, influenced by policy direction [4] - In the first quarter, export delivery value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while the real estate sector continues to show negative growth in new construction and sales areas [4] Price Trends - April's Producer Price Index (PPI) was -2.70%, primarily affected by declines in the mining and raw materials sectors. The demand for coal and steel remains weak due to insufficient demand and overcapacity [6] - The real estate sector's stabilization is crucial for the macroeconomic outlook, with ongoing concerns about the performance of upstream raw materials [6] Fiscal Policy Impact - Recent government initiatives aim to accelerate urban renewal projects, which could significantly impact economic data if progress is made [8] - The central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments, including a reduction in the one-year Loan Prime Rate to 2.94%, signal a supportive stance towards the bond market [9] Automotive Sector Insights - The new energy vehicle ETF (159806) has seen a decline of 5.41% over the past five days, despite a year-on-year production and sales growth exceeding 30% in April [10] - BYD initiated a price war with significant discounts on multiple models, prompting other automakers to follow suit, indicating intense competition and potential financial risks within the industry [12][13]