1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recent bond market trends are mainly about compressing various convex points. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields have faced resistance at key levels since June 11. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.65%. In July, the bond market may continue to flatten various spreads, and from August to September, it may further open up space with changes in fundamentals and trade information [2][9][41]. - The money supply is unlikely to drive further decline in bond yields. The bond market has fully priced in the loose money supply since the second quarter, and there is a low probability of the money supply further loosening and inverting with the policy rate. Instead, any marginal change in the money supply could challenge the bond market [2][9]. - Whether the 10 - year Treasury can break through key points in the third quarter depends on fundamentals and trade frictions. The bond market is insensitive to small changes in fundamentals but may react to significant ones. Attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade friction information in the bond market [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Different Types of Bond Bull: Bond Market Seeking Convex Point Returns - Since June 11, the 10 - year Treasury yield has faced resistance at 1.6%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield at around 1.8%. In the nearly one - month trading period, neither could break through downward. The bond market trends from June 11 to July 8 focused on compressing convex points [13]. - **Term Convex Point**: The long - end spreads of interest - rate bonds converged, and the spreads of long - duration credit bonds also compressed significantly. For example, the yields of 20Y and 50Y Treasuries decreased by 6.5bp and 7.5bp respectively, and the spreads of 5Y and 10Y AA + medium - and short - term notes narrowed by 6.4bp and 11.1bp [13]. - **Variety Convex Point**: The overall credit spread compressed to a historical low. Longer - duration and lower - grade varieties performed well, especially Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. For instance, the credit spread of AA - rated urban investment bonds compressed by 6.7bp, and for 5Y Tier 2 bonds, the compression order was AA > AA + > AAA - [13]. - **Liquidity Convex Point**: The difference in liquidity premiums between active and non - active bonds weakened, and the spread between new and old bonds compressed significantly. For example, the spread between the active and previous active 10Y China Development Bank bonds compressed from 4.3bp to 1.3bp [14]. 3.2 Money Fails to Drive the Bond Market to Break Through Key Points - Since the second quarter, the money supply has been loose, but the bond market has fully priced it. There is a low probability of the money supply further loosening and inverting with the policy rate. Due to the rising inter - bank leverage ratio and large - scale lending by major banks, any marginal change in the money supply could challenge the bond market [27]. - Only Treasuries with a term of over 5 years have positive carry in the current loose money supply environment. If the money price tightens marginally to around 1.6%, the range of Treasuries with positive carry will be compressed to those over 7 years. The central bank's desired market interest rate is within a range, and currently, the money price is close to the lower limit, so monetary easing is unlikely to drive further decline in interest rates [30]. 3.3 Bond Market Breaking Through Key Points Depends on Fundamentals and Trade Frictions - Whether the 10 - year Treasury can break through key points in the third quarter depends on fundamentals and trade frictions. The bond market is insensitive to small changes in fundamentals but may react to significant ones. Attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade friction information in the bond market [9]. - **Fundamental Concerns**: - Real estate sales were relatively resilient in the first half of the year, but there is uncertainty about further recovery in the second half. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities has been under downward pressure since the end of June [9]. - Consumption growth ultimately depends on urban residents' per capita disposable income and marginal propensity to consume. The "trade - in" policy has temporarily boosted consumption growth, but further growth requires an increase in residents' income or marginal propensity to consume, which are more complex and need further observation [9]. - Trade frictions may lead to "one - time" pricing in the bond market. At the beginning of this round of trade frictions, the bond market declined by 15bp in two trading days and rose by 5bp in one trading day after the Sino - US negotiation on May 12. US President Trump announced that "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1, and as the grace period approaches, attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade frictions in the bond market [9].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

文字早评 2025/06/30 星期一 宏观金融类 宏观消息面： 1、央行等六部门：创新适应家庭财富管理需求的金融产品，规范居民投资理财业务， 提高居民财产性收入； 2、央行等六部门发布 19 项举措：支持增强居民消费能力、支持提高消费供应 效率、加强基础金融服务； 3、以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期 12 天的冲突 于北京时间 24 日结束；4、国泰君安国际获批升级牌照，成为香港首家可提供全面虚拟资产服务的中资 券商，支持加密货币交易等业务；5、美联储理事鲍曼：若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，7 月可能会 降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办关于银行资本的会议；6、商务部：中美 6 月 9 日至 10 日伦敦经贸会 谈后，近日双方进一步确认了框架细节，中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请，美方将相应取 消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。7、沪深交易所：拟将主板风险警示股票涨跌幅限制比例调整为 10%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.76%/-1.00%/-1.15%/-1.92%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.26%/-2.02%/-3.96 ...

Group 1 - The report from Itaú BBA predicts a 5% decrease in sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region for the 2025/26 season, amounting to 590 million tons, with significant declines in the western and northwestern parts of São Paulo state [1] - Despite the decrease in crushing volume, sugar production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 41.2 million tons, with a sugar-to-cane ratio of 52% and an ATR (Total Recoverable Sugar) of 141 kg/ton [1] - Current spot prices for sugar in China show an increase, with Guangxi Sugar Group reporting prices between 6000 - 6080 yuan/ton, up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5790 - 5830 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is experiencing upward movement, with ICE cotton prices rising by 0.78% to 68.32 cents per pound, and domestic cotton prices in Xinjiang increasing by 65 yuan/ton to 14832 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% for two consecutive days, and cotton prices in Zhengzhou breaking through 13600 yuan/ton due to low commercial inventories and weather disturbances in Xinjiang [1] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a slight strengthening of cotton prices, although the fundamental drivers remain limited [1]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250622: Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Warehouse receipts are flowing out, and the premium of copper spot is under pressure [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.03/ton week - on - week to - $44.78/ton, still negative [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports decreased by 100,700 tons week - on - week to 712,100 tons [17] - The week - on - week change of the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [20] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in June is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [22] - Copper imports still remain in an inverted state [24] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased [25] - The LME copper inventory decreased again, while the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [27] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week but fell short of expectations. Terminal demand was weak, and the finished product inventory of refined copper rods increased [30] - From June 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 38% year - on - year [33] - Domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decline in June [34] - The "trade - in" national subsidy will continue, and 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing in May increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [40] - The US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [42] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, expecting two interest rate cuts this year and hinting at an increased risk of stagflation [43]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, while the bond market is showing signs of recovery, indicating an improvement in market sentiment [1] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The yield on 10-year government bonds has decreased from a high of 1.73% on May 27 to 1.64% by June 18, marking a decline of 9 basis points [2] - The 30-year government bond futures have risen from a low of 118.64 yuan on May 29 to a high of 120.93 yuan by June 18, an increase of over 2 yuan [3] - The China Bond New Comprehensive Wealth Index (1-3 years) reached a historical high of 228.49 points as of June 18, the highest since its launch on January 4, 2002 [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Expectations - The overall bond market is expected to perform well in 2024, with the China Bond Net Price Comprehensive Index rising by 4.55% [7] - The bond market has experienced five rounds of upward trends since the beginning of the year, with the latest round starting from May 27 [8] - The current market conditions suggest a potential for continued upward movement, with the possibility of breaking through previous resistance levels [8] Group 3: Influencing Factors - The funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose, which is favorable for the bond market [9] - The central bank has shifted its stance from tightening to a more accommodative approach, which is expected to support liquidity in the bond market [9][10] - The basic economic conditions are not expected to pose significant risks to the bond market, with export growth and retail sales providing some support [12] - Policy measures indicate an opening for monetary easing, which could further benefit the bond market [13]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, impacting market sentiment towards gold [1] - Gold has failed to break free from its oscillating market conditions, indicating ongoing volatility [1] - The futures market is being analyzed for potential strategies to position ahead of upcoming trends in gold and oil [1] Group 2 - A senior futures researcher is providing in-depth analysis of the current market landscape [1] - The focus includes forward-looking assessments of the fundamentals of gold, oil, and other commodities [1]

新华财经北京6月16日电（王菁）债市周一（6月16日）偏强整理，早间宏观数据对市场交投影响甚微， 国债期货主力多数小幅收涨，银行间现券收益率涨跌不一，短债表现略优，振幅多在1BP以内；公开市 场单日净投放682亿元，部分短端资金利率转为下行。 机构认为，在基本面和资金面支撑下，预计本周债市将延续震荡格局。另外值得一提的是，本周将召开 陆家嘴论坛，央行行长潘功胜等将出席，关注是否有增量信息释出，可能会对债市造成一定扰动。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.05%报120.520，10年期主力合约涨0.01%报109.015，5年 期主力合约持平于106.145，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.466。 银行间主要利率债收益率涨跌不一，短券表现稍强。截至发稿，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率 上行0.20BP报1.8510%，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行1.25BP报1.7160%，10年期国债"25附息国 债11"收益率持平于1.6420%，2年期国债"25附息国债06"收益率下行1BP报1.4%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.25%，报434.92点，成交金额69 ...

Market Overview - The convertible bond market experienced narrow fluctuations during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index showing a change of 0% (previous week +1.1%) and the China All Share Index declining by 0.4% [3] - Year-to-date, the China Convertible Bond Index has increased by 4.7%, while the China All Share Index has risen by 1.3%, indicating that the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market [3] Performance by Rating and Size - High-rated bonds (AA+ and above) saw a change of -0.11%, medium-rated bonds (AA) changed by -0.44%, and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) changed by -0.38%, with high-rated bonds experiencing the least decline [4] - In terms of bond size, large-scale convertible bonds (balance over 5 billion) increased by +0.43%, while medium-scale (5 to 50 billion) and small-scale (under 5 billion) bonds decreased by -0.39% and -0.34%, respectively, with large-scale bonds showing the highest increase [4] Price and Premium Analysis - The average price of convertible bonds is 121.63 yuan, with an average parity of 93.35 yuan and an average conversion premium rate of 30.0% as of June 13, 2025 [5][6] - The average conversion premium rate for medium parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 to 110 yuan) is 24.3%, which is higher than the median conversion premium rate of 19.8% since 2018 [6] Future Outlook - The convertible bond market's future performance will be influenced by economic negotiations, fundamental factors, and macro policies [7] - Current focus areas include convertible bonds linked to companies that can boost domestic demand and those involved in domestic substitution, particularly those with strong underlying stocks [7]

Report Date - The report is dated June 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different trends such as price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and upward or downward trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction restricts price decline. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,290 yuan with a daily increase of 0.52%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,647 dollars with a decline of 0.80%. China's 1 - 5 month cumulative import of copper ore and concentrates increased by 7.4% year - on - year [5][7] - **Aluminum**: Need to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,250 yuan. Alumina is expected to run weakly, with the Shanghai alumina main contract closing at 2,895 yuan [8] - **Zinc**: Short - term oscillation, with attention to inventory. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,140 yuan with an increase of 1.35%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons [11] - **Lead**: Range - bound trading. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,845 yuan with a decline of 0.21%. LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [14] - **Tin**: Stopped falling and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,530 yuan with an increase of 0.80%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 4,800 yuan compared to the previous day [18] - **Nickel**: The reality support and weak expectation are in a game, and the nickel price oscillates. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 121,790 yuan. Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, and the steel price is range - bound. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,600 yuan [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, and the fundamentals remain weak. The 2507 contract of carbonate lithium closed at 61,680 yuan [28] - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and the upside space is limited. The Si2507 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,560 yuan. Polysilicon: The spot is weak, and the disk has a downward drive. The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 34,255 yuan [31] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it oscillates within a range. The futures price closed at 707.0 yuan with an increase of 1.22% [34] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are in wide - range oscillations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,991 yuan with an increase of 0.67%, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,108 yuan with an increase of 0.78% [37] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon is in wide - range oscillations due to production cuts in major producing areas. The silicon ferrosilicon 2507 contract closed at 5,298 yuan. Manganese silicon is weakly oscillating as overseas miners' quotes decline. The manganese silicon 2507 contract closed at 5,472 yuan [41] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is in wide - range oscillations. Coking coal is in wide - range oscillations as safety inspections become stricter. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 783.5 yuan with a decline of 0.19%, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,356 yuan with an increase of 0.52% [46] - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and it is in wide - range oscillations. The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day [51] - **Rubber**: Oscillating. The rubber main contract closed at 13,890 yuan during the day session [61] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by strong crude oil, it is in short - term oscillations. The main contract of synthetic rubber (07 contract) closed at 11,225 yuan [65] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are large differences in pressure from the origin, and it is grinding the bottom in oscillations. The palm oil is in a state of range - bound trading with a focus on the pressure from the origin [58] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force is temporarily weak, and it is in range - bound trading. The soybean oil is currently in a range - bound state with limited driving factors [58] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to good weather and a decline in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. The soybean meal market was affected by the weather and US soybean prices [60] - **Soybean**: Due to the expectation of provincial reserve sales, the futures price declined. The soybean market was influenced by the expectation of provincial reserve sales [60] - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly. The corn market shows a relatively strong oscillating trend [62] - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level. The sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase [64] - **Cotton**: Continuing to be affected by market sentiment. The cotton market is still under the influence of market sentiment [65] - **Egg**: The negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released, waiting for the confirmation of chicken culling. The egg market is waiting for the impact of chicken culling after the plum - rain season [67] - **Live Pig**: Still waiting for the confirmation of the spot market. The live pig market is awaiting the performance of the spot market [68] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market. The peanut market requires attention to the spot price [69]