-39% -17% 5% 26% 48% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 百润股份 沪深300 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2025-05-04 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 26.10 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 31.70/15.00 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 718 | | 流通股比例（%） | 68.42 | | 总市值（亿元） | 274 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 187 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 百润股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002568） 公司点评 库存积极去化，威士忌招商可期 ——百润股份 24 年报&25Q1 点评 [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.百润 ...

1Q25 销售端仍较为疲软，去化库存释放渠道压力。由于公司面临渠道库存去化压力及竞品挤压，1Q25 收入延续下滑态势，我们预计天之蓝与水晶梦下滑幅度更大。1Q25 毛利率同比-0.44ppt 至75.6%；销售 费用率同比+3.86ppt 至12.4%，主因公司收入下滑的同时市场费用投入较为刚性；管理费用率同比 +1.1ppt 至4%；净利率同比-4.4ppt 至32.9%，盈利能力延续承压。1Q25 销售收现98 亿元/同比-24%；合 同负债70.2 亿元/同比+21%，主因公司主导去化渠道库存，减轻经销商压力，未激进发货。 发展趋势 2024 年公司市场步入调整期，收入及盈利能力承压。2024 年中高档酒营收243.17 亿元/同比-14.8%，普 通酒营收39.31 亿元/同比-0.5%，蓝色经典系列过去几年积累渠道库存偏高，在行业竞争加剧、消费力 转弱的环境下，经销商回款及接货意愿下降，导致公司收入下滑。2024 年省内营收127.48亿元/同 比-11.4%，省外营收155 亿元/同比-14.35%。产品结构下降致2024年毛利率同比-2.1ppt 至73.2%，销售 费用率同比+2.8ppt 至 ...

ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/4/30 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/29 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.0 | 483.6 | -14. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情小跌,原油下跌,利空PTA行情,但去库 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 861.0 | 925.6 | 64. 65 | 存预期之下PTA主力供应商报盘基差较强,支撑PTA现 货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2379 | 1. 2634 | 0. 0255 | | | | CFR中国PX | 758 | 756 | -2 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 176 | 178 | 2 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4480 | 4440 | ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/04/30 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/04/2 3 | 801 | 2438 | 2468 | 2745 | 2610 | 2720 | 2855 | 261 | 340 | 184 | 40 | -863 | | 2025/04/2 4 | 801 | 2437 | 2455 | 2740 | 2610 | 2720 | 2840 | 261 | 340 | 164 | 35 | -875 | | 2025/04/2 5 | 801 | 2440 | 2458 | 2740 | 2610 ...

证券研究报告 酒鬼酒 (000799 CH) 压力释放，静待复苏 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 公司发布 24 年年报及 25 年一季报，24 年实现营收/归母净利 14.2/0.1 亿（同 比-49.7%/-97.7%），24Q4 营收 2.3 亿（同比-66.2%），归母净利-0.4 亿（23Q4 为 0.7 亿元）；25Q1 实现营收/归母净利 3.4/0.3 亿（同比-30.3%/-56.8%）， 公司业绩表现低于我们此前预期（25Q1 收入/归母净利同比-15%/-20%）， 我们认为系需求恢复并传导至业绩仍需时间。当前公司仍以库存去化为主； 产品端，内参、酒鬼强调品牌价值，严格控货稳价，湘泉等中低端产品表现 相对稳健；市场端，公司持续做深省内市场，建设省外样板市场，开展核心 终端建设，优化消费者活动。展望看，当前公司渠道压力边际去化，未来需 静待外部需求复苏带动业绩回暖，"增持"。 内参酒鬼坚持库存去化，湘泉实现稳增，渠道建设持续推进 产品端，24 年内参系列/酒鬼系列 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 41.05 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under short-term pressure, but with the deepening of its global layout and accelerated inventory destocking of overseas inverters, the report is optimistic about the company's continued recovery in profitability. The heat pump business is expected to provide new growth momentum [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company demonstrated significant improvement in cost control capabilities, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios decreasing by 1.02, 0.16, 1.43, and 0.49 percentage points respectively. This led to a notable improvement in profitability, with gross margin and net margin increasing by 4.11 and 2.80 percentage points respectively [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.738 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.36%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -0.62 billion CNY, with a non-recurring net profit of -1.94 billion CNY, indicating a shift from profit to loss. In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1.794 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.41% [1][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.882 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 67.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.88%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -0.28 billion CNY, with a non-recurring net profit of -0.63 billion CNY, showing a narrowing of losses [1][2]. Product and Market Development - The company's products are sold globally, with significant shipments in 2024, including 599,500 inverters, of which 548,300 were grid-connected inverters and 51,200 were storage inverters. The overseas shipment ratio was approximately 51.13% [2]. - The company has expanded its product offerings with the launch of the latest SDTG3 series photovoltaic inverters, increasing the power range to 40kW, and achieving a maximum efficiency of 98.7% [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.602 billion CNY, 10.447 billion CNY, and 12.431 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 439 million CNY, 560 million CNY, and 716 million CNY [4][10]. - The report anticipates a significant recovery in profitability, with projected PE ratios of 23x, 18x, and 14x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：政治局会议定调积极，看好饮料旺季催化 市场表现复盘 本周（4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日）食品饮料板块/沪深 300 涨跌幅分别-1.36%/+0.38%。具体板块来 看，本周零食（+4.50%）、软饮料（+2.21%）、其他酒类（+0.06%）、调味发酵品（-0.33%）、肉 制品（-0.53%）、啤酒（-0.72%）、保健品（-1.28%）、白酒 III（-1.75%）。 周观点更新 白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有 ...

白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有增长，或加速行业库存去化节奏，助力行业逐步走出调整。 4 月 25 日中央政治局会议提到，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，同时，还提到将通过创设新工具精准引导资金流向科技创新、 扩大消费、稳定外贸等领域。当前（2025-04-26）申万白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 19.44X，处于近 10 年 11.49%的合理偏低水位，在中央政治局会议积极定调背景下，建议关注后续具体刺激政 策出台为板块带来的估值修复机会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][24]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 28.88 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a decline in revenue and profit, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [2][4][8]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a deep clearing of its financial statements, with a commitment to dividends providing a safety net for investors. The total dividend for 2024 is set at 7 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend yield of 6.5% [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: - Total revenue: 28.88 billion yuan, down 12.8% YoY - Net profit: 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.4% YoY - Earnings per share (EPS): 4.43 yuan [4][8]. - **2025 Projections**: - Expected total revenue: 23.41 billion yuan, down 18.9% YoY - Expected net profit: 5.59 billion yuan, down 16.3% YoY - Projected EPS: 3.71 yuan [4][8]. - **Market Position**: - The company is focusing on inventory clearance and maintaining price stability for its main products, particularly in the Jiangsu region. The strategy includes managing quotas and enhancing marketing efforts to support sales [2][8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 19 times, with a target price of 82 yuan based on a 22 times P/E ratio [4][8]. - **Cash Flow and Debt**: - The company reported a significant increase in contract liabilities, indicating a focus on managing cash flow amidst declining sales [2][8]. - **Market Trends**: - The report notes a challenging market environment with a decline in both volume and price for the company's products, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [2][8]. - **Future Outlook**: - The company is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025, driven by new product launches and a lower base from the previous year [2][8].

作者：光心 近期，无锡卓海科技股份有限公司（下称"卓海科技"）成功递表北交所。之后，4月17日， 公司收到北 交所问询函，其中针对业务技术、公司治理、财务信息、募集资金运用等多个方面提出13问。 其实早先卓海科技还递表深交所，多次被要求说明自身业务是否符合定位，最后以被否告终。 而此次卓海科技再度冲刺北交所也暴露出诸多问题。首先是近年营收增速显著下滑，且2024年增收不增 利。研发费用远低于同业也比公司、核心技术人员简历信息疑点也难免令人对其创新性与研发门槛产生 质疑。此外，公司转战北交所后，募投项目不变的情况下募资金额却提升1.5亿元，是否存在合理性？ 近年营收增速大幅下滑 2024年增收不增利 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 据卓海科技解释，报告期内公司研发费用率高于华亚智能，低于中科飞测和精测电子主要是业务模式差 异。例如，中科飞测以自研设备为基础开展具体模块、整机的开发、设计，整机开发的研发领域及链条 更多、更长，所需投入规模较大，从而使得研发费用率相对较高。而卓海科技则以退役设备为基础开展 精准、系统化修复，研发方向侧重于修复技术的提升，研发项目所需投入规模相对较小。 卓海科技是国内重要的半导体前道量 ...