1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - fruit sectors show different market trends. In the soft - commodity sector, sugar prices are under pressure but with limited downside, and pulp has high supply and limited demand improvement. In the fresh - fruit sector, apple prices are in high - level oscillation, and jujube prices are affected by various factors such as inventory and seasonality [3][10]. - For trading strategies, different approaches are recommended for each commodity. For example, for sugar, it is advisable to wait and consider selling wide - straddle options; for pulp, a bearish approach on rebounds is suggested [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh - fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use an interval trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a resistance range of 9000 - 9200. For Jujube 2601, consider short - selling at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a resistance range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft - commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, wait and see. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish approach in the interval, with a support range of 4700 - 4750 and a resistance range of 5100 - 5200. For Double - offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a resistance range of 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a resistance range of 13600 - 13700 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, fresh apple exports were about 68,400 tons, a 27.59% month - on - month increase but a 17.57% year - on - year decrease. As of September 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a 60,200 - ton week - on - week decrease and a 30,700 - ton year - on - year decrease [21]. - **Spot Market**: Prices in Shandong were stable with little trading, and new apples haven't been widely available due to rainfall. In Shaanxi, merchants were interested in high - quality apples. In other regions, prices in Gansu remained high, and prices in Liaoning varied by variety. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was lower than usual, and prices were stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses was 9167 tons, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease but a 93.89% year - on - year increase. Attention should be paid to the circulation of old jujubes and price changes before the new jujubes are harvested [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market In September, the forecasted arrival of duty - quota - free raw sugar was 460,000 tons, and the estimated sugar import was 600,000 - 700,000 tons. Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area was estimated to be 9.355219 million hectares, and the output was estimated to be 695.532937 million tons. Spot sugar prices in Yunnan and Guangxi decreased slightly [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The offer price of NBSK to Chinese traders was 650 US dollars per ton, but sellers refused to lower the price. A European supplier sold NBSK at 650 US dollars per ton. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remained at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. A major Brazilian supplier planned to increase the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to the Asian market by 20 US dollars per ton [29]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market In Shandong, the mainstream price of high - white double - offset paper was 4600 - 4750 yuan per ton, and that of some natural - white paper was 4300 - 4500 yuan per ton. In Guangdong, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4600 - 4700 yuan per ton. In Beijing, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton. In Tianjin, the price was 4900 - 5000 yuan per ton. Supply was relatively loose, and demand showed no improvement [30][31]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In September 2025, Vietnam's cotton textile output was 102 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year and 4.28% month - on - month increase; clothing output was 554 million pieces, a 13.52% year - on - year decrease but a 1.52% month - on - month increase. In August, Thailand's cotton import was about 9057 tons, a 43.5% month - on - month decrease but a 1.2% year - on - year increase [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8510, down 155 or 1.79%. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11360, up 255 or 2.30%. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5408, up 5 or 0.09%. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4856, unchanged. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13320, up 50 or 0.38% [33]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - Apples were priced at 3.75 yuan per jin, unchanged month - on - month but up 0.50 yuan year - on - year. - Jujubes were priced at 9.40 yuan per kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - Sugar was priced at 5790 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month but down 750 yuan year - on - year. - Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was priced at 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 700 yuan year - on - year. - Double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was priced at 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 450 yuan year - on - year. - Cotton was priced at 14664 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 849 yuan year - on - year [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis of basis situation was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apples, the 10 - 1 spread was 535, down 1 month - on - month and 97 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For jujubes, the 9 - 1 spread was 255, up 315 month - on - month and down 140 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 spread was 34, up 2 month - on - month and 19 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For cotton, the 1 - 5 spread was - 55, up 5 month - on - month and 25 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see temporarily [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning No specific analysis of futures positioning was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apples had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujubes had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Sugar had 8438 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month but down 1280 year - on - year. - Pulp had 227468 warehouse receipts, down 208 month - on - month and 176879 year - on - year. - Cotton had 2724 warehouse receipts, down 49 month - on - month and 1349 year - on - year [90]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific analysis of option - related data was provided other than relevant figures and sources.

Core Insights - The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center predicts a cooler state in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific during the autumn and winter of 2025, while most coastal waters of China will experience higher sea temperatures [1][2] Group 1: ENSO Predictions - Experts discussed the changing characteristics of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) under global warming, which poses new challenges for climate prediction [1] - The Nino3.4 index is expected to approach or reach the threshold for a La Niña event, indicating a possibility of a weak La Niña occurrence [1] Group 2: Seasonal Sea Temperature Forecasts - Predictions for this winter indicate slightly higher sea temperatures in the Bohai Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea, while the Yellow Sea and central and northern East China Sea will also see elevated temperatures [2] - The South China Sea's temperatures are expected to be close to the long-term average, with a focus on the impact of higher coastal sea temperatures on aquaculture and marine ecological environments [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - medium term relative strength ranking: Oils > Sugar > Meal > Corn > Cotton > Livestock [2] - Short - medium term long - short allocation suggestions: Long palm oil 01 and sugar 01; short cotton 01 and egg 01 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - **豆粕**: Recommended to go long M2601 on dips with a stop - loss at 2900 - 2950. From September 22 to October 14, M2601 fell 132 points to 2902. The Argentine government's export tax suspension policy and other factors led to a weak performance [12]. - **玉米**: Recommended to go short corn 11 contract on rallies. After the National Day, the spot price dropped sharply, and the futures price also followed suit, breaking below 2100 yuan/ton, with a good strategy performance [12]. - **油脂**: Recommended to go long palm oil 01 contract. From September 22 to October 14, the price was basically flat. The Argentine export tax suspension and the MPOB report affected the price trend [13]. - **棉花**: Recommended to hold the short position of the 1 - month contract and the reverse spread strategy of the 11 - 1 contract. The short position of the 1 - month contract was profitable by 3%, while the reverse spread strategy was not successful [14]. - **白糖**: Recommended to go long SR601 on dips. Affected by the Sino - US trade war and other factors, the strategy performed poorly [14]. - **强弱配置策略**: In the past month from September 19 to October 15, the overall performance of agricultural products was weak. The long - short allocation strategy achieved a 1.7% profit [15][16]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - **棕榈油**: Bullish in 3 months. Although the inventory in October and the delay of Indonesia's B50 policy will suppress the rise of the 01 contract, the coming of the production reduction season, the increasing probability of La Nina, and the support of Indonesia's B40 policy are still positive factors. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract with a stop - loss at 9000, a short - term take - profit at 9600, and a medium - long - term target of 9800 - 10000 yuan [19]. - **白糖**: Bullish in 3 months. In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and considering the production costs of major producers, the export threshold of India, and the CFTC positions, the downside space of the outer market is limited. The domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar, and the SR601 contract has long - allocation value. It is recommended to go long on dips with a take - profit at 5600 - 5700 and a stop - loss at 5350 [19]. 3.2.2套利策略 No relevant content provided. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - **油脂板块**: The long - term logic of long - allocating palm oil remains unchanged. In the short term, the inventory in October and the delay of B50 will suppress the 01 contract, but the production reduction season and the demand for Indonesia to catch up with the B40 progress are positive. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract at 9200 - 9300 yuan with a take - profit around 9600 yuan [22][23]. - **白糖板块**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production will decline, the production expectations of India and Thailand need to be verified, the production costs of major producers are high, and the CFTC positions indicate limited downside space. Domestically, the import volume will decrease in the fourth quarter, and the market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. It is recommended to go long the SR601 contract on dips [28][29][32]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - **豆粕**: In the short - medium term, it is supported by cost but suppressed by supply and demand. The supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply shortage from February to the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans [51]. - **菜粕**: Similar to bean粕, affected by policies. The spot basis of rapeseed meal is stronger than that of bean粕 [51]. - **棕榈油**: In the short term, the rise of the 01 contract is restricted, but it is expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter. In the medium - long term, it is expected to continue to rise [51]. - **豆油**: It has been oscillating recently, lacking a clear driving force, and needs to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US relations [51]. - **菜油**: It has been weak recently, affected by the possible relaxation of Sino - Canadian relations and the arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed [51]. - **玉米**: It is expected to find the bottom through oscillation in the short term and then rebound. The price center is expected to remain relatively stable [53]. - **玉米淀粉**: It is expected to follow corn to find the bottom first and then gradually build the bottom and rebound. The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to remain low and oscillate [53]. - **鸡蛋**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is difficult to ease significantly. It is recommended to go short the JD2511 contract and pay attention to the anti - spread strategy [53]. - **生猪**: The futures price is trading the problem of oversupply. The seasonal rebound drive of the 1 - month contract is not as strong as the drag of inventory reduction on the spot price [53]. - **白糖**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and the domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. The SR601 contract has long - allocation value [54]. - **棉花**: In the short - medium term, it will be under pressure, and the low point may appear in November. In the long term, it is cautiously optimistic [54]. - **橡胶**: It is expected to oscillate and weaken in the fourth quarter, but the price may rebound if the raw material decline is slow [54]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month from September 15 to October 15, the capital scale of the agricultural product futures sector was basically stable, with a slight net outflow. The net outflow of funds in the bean and oil sectors was relatively large, while the soft commodities, agricultural and sideline products (especially livestock), and grains had varying degrees of net inflows [55]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年10月15日）**: The report provides the basis and basis rate data of various agricultural product varieties on October 15, 2025 [59]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: In the short - medium term, it is recommended to long - allocate palm oil 01 and sugar 01 and short - allocate cotton 01 and egg 01. In the medium - long term, it is recommended to long - allocate oils on dips and short - allocate sugar, livestock, and eggs on rallies [66][67].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant weather differences between northern and southern China in October, highlighting the impact on agriculture and public health due to the contrasting conditions of cold and wet in the north versus hot and dry in the south [1][2]. Weather Disparity - Northern regions, including Northwest, North China, and Huanghuai, have experienced increased rainfall, while southern areas like Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, and northern Guangdong have seen temperatures exceeding 35°C, with some places reaching above 38°C [2][3]. Causes of Weather Differences - The disparity is attributed to the influence of the subtropical high-pressure system, which creates a "moisture transport belt" that brings warm, moist air from the sea to the north, leading to prolonged autumn rains in the northwest and North China [3][4]. Agricultural Impact - The contrasting weather poses challenges for agricultural production, particularly during the autumn harvest and planting season. In the north, excessive rainfall has led to waterlogged soils, delaying the harvest of corn and affecting winter wheat planting [5][6]. - In the south, high temperatures can negatively impact crops like rice, causing early root aging and reduced yield due to high-temperature stress [6]. Health Implications - The unusual weather patterns also affect public health, with increased cases of respiratory diseases in the north due to cold and damp conditions, while the south faces risks of heat-related illnesses [7][8][9]. - Health experts recommend precautions for vulnerable populations, including maintaining warmth in cold conditions and managing hydration and heat exposure in hot weather [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter is expected to experience a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) situation in the pig industry, despite entering the consumption peak season, due to various factors affecting supply and demand [1] Supply Side - The number of breeding sows is showing a slight downward trend, and it is anticipated to continue decreasing in the fourth quarter [1] - The slaughter levels for the fourth quarter are becoming clearer, with an expected increase in pork supply due to higher slaughter volumes and weight factors [1] Demand Side - Although the fourth quarter typically marks a peak consumption period, the support for demand may not meet expectations [1] - There is a tendency for secondary fattening to lean towards net slaughter during this period [1] Environmental Factors - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to influence weather patterns, leading to drought in the south and flooding in the north, with a high probability of increased rainfall in winter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant weather differences between northern and southern China in October, highlighting the impact on agriculture and public health due to the contrasting climatic conditions [1][2]. Weather Disparity - Northern regions, including Northwest and North China, are experiencing increased rainfall and cooler temperatures, while southern regions, such as Jiangnan and South China, are facing persistent high temperatures, with some areas exceeding 35°C [2][3]. Meteorological Explanation - The weather patterns are influenced by the subtropical high-pressure system, which causes dry and hot conditions in the south while leading to rainfall in the north due to the interaction of warm moist air and cold air masses [3][4]. Agricultural Impact - The contrasting weather poses challenges for agricultural production, particularly during the autumn harvest and planting season. In northern regions, excessive rainfall has led to waterlogged soils, delaying the harvest of crops like corn and affecting winter wheat planting [5][6]. - In southern regions, high temperatures can negatively impact crops such as rice, leading to reduced yields and increased susceptibility to pests and diseases [7]. Public Health Concerns - The unusual weather patterns also affect public health, with increased cases of respiratory illnesses in the north due to cold and damp conditions, while the south sees cases of heat-related illnesses like heatstroke [8][9][10]. - Health experts recommend precautions for vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, to mitigate health risks associated with the current weather extremes [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the price of soybean meal is expected to stop falling, stabilize, and rebound due to weather speculation in Brazil. However, considering the weak La Nina in winter, the January contract of soybean meal is unlikely to show a bullish trend. There is also a risk of decline if there is a Sino - US trade agreement. Short - term phased trading is recommended, and long - position operations require careful position and risk management [5][7][109]. - Rapeseed meal has been mainly following the trend of soybean meal due to high inventory pressure. There may be opportunities to go long on far - month rapeseed meal contracts considering the low inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in domestic coastal crushing plants and the stagnant China - Canada trade. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade, as an improvement in the relationship would be unfavorable for far - month contracts of rapeseed products [9][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Review of the Third - Quarter Market of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Q3, the price of domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August due to factors such as the Sino - US trade tariff increase, weather premium during the US soybean planting period, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed by China, and the significant reduction in the US soybean planting area in the USDA report. Subsequently, the price declined due to good weather for US soybean planting, high port inventory of rapeseed meal in China, and other factors [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Q3, the price of rapeseed meal first increased and then decreased. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August after China announced a deposit system for Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, high port inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal, concerns about the improvement of China - Canada trade tariffs, and the resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade suppressed the price [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Supply and Demand Situation of the International Soybean Market - **Global Climate**: There is a 71% probability of La Nina occurring from October to December 2025, which may continue until February 2026, with a probability dropping to 54% [21]. - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline. As of the September USDA report, it was 0.29, lower than last year's 0.3 but still above the median of the past decade. There are uncertainties in the future inventory - to - consumption ratio, especially if the Sino - US negotiation remains unresolved, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian soybeans may improve significantly [24]. - **US Soybeans**: The planting area of US soybeans decreased, but the yield is expected to be high. The USDA adjusted the planting area and yield estimates, and as of September 28, 2025, the soybean harvest rate was 19%, the excellent - good rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79% [28]. - **US Biodiesel**: In August, the EPA's handling of the backlog of small refinery exemption applications was positive for market confidence. However, in September, differences over the exemption issue led to a delay in the plan, increasing market uncertainty [29][30]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. The planting started in mid - September, but there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the southern region. As of September 27, the sowing rate was 3.5%. The export volume in September was expected to be 675 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal was expected to be 637 tons [33][34][35]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to decrease slightly. The planting area is expected to decline by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares, and the production is expected to be 47 million tons. The government temporarily removed export taxes on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31 or until the export volume reached $7 billion [40][43]. - **Global Rapeseed**: The global rapeseed production has recovered, with an output of 90.96 million tons in 2025, higher than last year's 85.73 million tons. Canada's rapeseed production is also expected to increase, reaching 20 million tons [47]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting from August 14, 2025, and extended the investigation period to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [49][50]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Supply Situation of the Domestic Oilseed Market - **Soybean Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The main sources of imports were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the US [56]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory and Crushing**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons, and the inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1991 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of 125 oil mills was 1.1892 million tons. In September, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.9354 million tons [58][60][62]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Supply from October to December**: From October to December, the soybean import supply is expected to be sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal in Q4 is also expected to be good [64]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Spread**: In Q3, the soybean meal basis rebounded from a low level but remained in a negative state. As of October 9, the basis for the January and May contracts was - 39 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean meal was 184 yuan/ton as of October 9 [68][71]. - **Rapeseed Market Supply**: In August 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 246,600 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to August was 2.3306 million tons. As of October 3, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 26,800 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal in East China was 25 yuan/ton as of October 9 [74][78][86]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: In Q3, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures was relatively stable, while the spot price difference rebounded. As of October 9, the futures price difference was 504 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference was 440 yuan/ton [89]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Domestic Downstream Livestock and Poultry Market - **National Feed Production**: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 216.18 million tons, higher than the same period last year [90][92]. - **Pig Market**: As of the end of June 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads. In August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads. The piglet sales volume in August was 547,100 heads. The pig farming profit declined in Q3 [95][97][99]. - **Egg and Broiler Chicken Farming**: The egg - laying hen farming profit decreased significantly after the festival, with a profit of - 4.94 yuan/feather as of October 9. The broiler chicken farming profit fluctuated greatly in Q3, with a profit of - 1.55 yuan/feather as of October 10. The inventory of laying hens and broiler chickens was at a relatively high level, indicating optimistic feed demand [102][103][105]. - **Meat Duck Inventory**: As of October 3, the national meat duck parent - stock inventory was 249,000 sets, and the daily average hatching volume of commercial - generation meat ducks was 9.3 million feathers [108]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Price Outlook for the Double - Meal Market - **Soybean Meal Market**: Supply is affected by the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and weather in Brazil. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the January contract is under pressure. Consumption is expected to be acceptable in Q4 but weaker than in the first half of the year. Overall, the price may stop falling and rebound, but there are risks [5][109]. - **Rapeseed Meal Market**: International supply is affected by the harvest of Canadian rapeseed and the opening of Australian rapeseed imports. Domestic supply is affected by inventory and China - Canada trade. Downstream consumption is in the off - season in Q4. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [9][112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply - demand pattern shows no obvious positive signs. The international soybean price is under pressure, and the domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic double - meal market has a large real - time supply pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the general direction of shorting on rebounds. However, due to the relatively low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the short - term trend of soybean meal is mainly weak and fluctuating [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: In September, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. Argentina's price - cut sales to raise foreign exchange in the middle of the month pressured international soybean and soybean meal prices. The Brazilian premium quotation decreased slightly, and the US soybean listing season slightly suppressed the Brazilian premium. The valuation of US soybeans is currently slightly low, and the Brazilian premium has some downward space. The domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. Whether China will import US soybeans is undetermined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, the Brazilian quotation will remain strong, providing some support for soybean meal. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the soybean meal market may first react to the short - term supply pressure with a falling price, and then the import cost will stabilize after the game between US soybeans and the Brazilian premium ends, and the market will then trade based on the cost [10]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: In September, the domestic soybean meal spot price fell, the basis rose, and the futures market converged towards the spot price. The oil mill's crushing profit declined. Domestic trading volume decreased, and the pick - up volume was relatively high but decreased at the end of the month. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.6 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. As of September 30, the ship - booking volume in August was 9.2 million tons, 8.76 million tons in September, 8.26 million tons in October, and 4.34 million tons in November. The current ship - booking progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is that the short - term trend of soybean meal is mainly weak and fluctuating. The medium - term general direction is to short on rebounds due to the large domestic supply pressure and the unchanged expectation of a loose global soybean supply. The report did not provide specific suggestions for the arbitrage strategy [10][11][12]. 3.2 Supply - side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report presents the planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate of US soybeans through multiple charts, which can be used to assess the growth situation of US soybeans [32][33]. - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report shows the weighted precipitation in US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas and the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and South America, which may affect soybean production [35][37][39]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows the export contract volume, sales completion rate, and export shipment volume of US soybeans to China through multiple charts, which helps to understand the demand for US soybeans in the international market [50][51]. - **China's Oilseed Import and Oil Mill Crushing**: The report shows the monthly import volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in China through charts, as well as the soybean and rapeseed crushing volume of major oil mills, which reflects the supply situation of domestic oilseeds [53][54][55]. 3.3 Period - Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu through charts, which helps to understand the current price level of the spot market [18][19]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: The report shows the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract through charts, which is important for analyzing the relationship between the futures and spot markets [21][22]. - **Price Difference**: The report shows the price differences between different contracts of soybean meal and between soybean meal 01 and rapeseed meal 01 through charts, which provides reference for arbitrage trading [23][24]. - **Fund Position**: The report shows the net long positions of management funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal through charts, which reflects the market sentiment of institutional investors [26][29][30]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report shows the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills through charts, which reflects the inventory situation of domestic oilseeds [59][60]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The report shows the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills through charts, which reflects the inventory situation of domestic protein meals [62][63]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: The report shows the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseed in coastal areas through charts, which reflects the profitability of the protein meal processing industry [64][65]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Protein Meal Demand**: The report shows the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal through charts, which reflects the demand situation of the domestic protein meal market [66][67]. - **Breeding Profit**: The report shows the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers through charts, which reflects the profitability of the breeding industry and may affect the demand for protein meals [68][69].

Core Insights - The LNG market is currently focused on winter temperature forecasts, demand, and potential supply risks, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and climate conditions [1][23] - The probability of a La Niña event in the winter of 2025-26 is increasing, which could lead to extreme temperature variations and heightened demand for LNG [1][13] - Historical data indicates that LNG prices may rise above 5000 yuan/ton during the winter peak due to low prices and seasonal inventory replenishment [1][23] LNG Demand and Consumption Trends - China's natural gas consumption has shown a historical growth pattern, with a significant increase from 2003 to 2013, but recent trends indicate a slowdown in growth [4][5] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's natural gas consumption was 246.1 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.3%, reflecting a decline of 9.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [4][6] - The demand composition includes urban gas (36%), industrial fuel (34%), power generation (22%), and chemicals (8%), with urban gas consumption being sensitive to weather and urbanization [5][6] Economic and Policy Factors - Economic conditions, including ongoing monetary easing and fiscal spending, are influencing natural gas demand, with industrial and chemical sectors facing downward pressure [6][8] - The Chinese government is promoting renewable energy, which may impact natural gas's share in the energy mix, as gas-fired power generation currently accounts for only about 4.5% of total installed capacity [10][11] - Policies aimed at reducing coal usage and promoting cleaner energy sources are expected to support natural gas demand in the long term, with projected growth rates of 4%-8% by 2035 [11][12] Supply Risks and Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to pose significant supply risks, with no signs of Russian gas supplies to Europe resuming through Ukraine [18][20] - The U.S. is maintaining high levels of natural gas production and exports, with a notable increase in LNG exports to Europe, which is crucial for balancing supply amid geopolitical tensions [19][22] - The Freeport LNG export facility in the U.S. is a key player in the market, with stable operations and low shipping costs, contributing to European LNG supply [21][22] Weather and Seasonal Factors - The upcoming winter season is expected to see increased demand due to potential cold weather, with the La Niña probability at approximately 60% [13][16] - Historical patterns indicate that extreme weather events can significantly impact natural gas prices, as seen in previous winters [5][23] - The combination of economic weakness, fluctuating industrial prices, and unpredictable winter temperatures will likely lead to low-level fluctuations in natural gas demand [16][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Domestic rubber production areas have been affected by rainfall and tropical cyclones, especially Hainan. Overseas rainfall is relatively normal, and production will increase in the fourth - quarter peak season. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in 2025, and the zero - tariff scope for imported rubber continues to expand. Rubber supply in China is expected to recover in the fourth quarter without extreme weather [100]. - Demand side: The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. Overseas trade barriers for domestic tires are rising, increasing export pressure. The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, but the automobile sales in the fourth quarter still face challenges [100]. - Price: Due to uncertain weather, tariff barriers, and the test of domestic demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the fourth quarter, with support at around 14,500 yuan/ton and a mid - term fluctuation range of 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price: Narrow - range Fluctuation in the Futures Market No detailed content provided in this regard. 3.2 Supply: Double La Nina Events, Increased Weather Uncertainty - **Domestic Weather Impact**: This year, there have been more tropical cyclones affecting Hainan, and the precipitation in domestic production areas has been affected. It is predicted that there will be 10 - 12 typhoons in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea in the autumn of 2025, with 3 - 4 landing in China [10][13]. - **Global Output**: In July 2025, the global natural rubber output was expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, but increased by 7.9% compared with the previous month. The full - year output in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [19][24]. - **La Nina Probability**: The probability of a La Nina event from October to December 2025 is 71%. A double La Nina event may occur in 2025, which may make Southeast Asia wetter and southern China drier in winter [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Since December 1, 2024, zero - tariff policies have been implemented for rubber from Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, etc. Thailand plans to export rubber through the Mekong River channel with zero - tariff. African rubber imports to China are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [33][36]. - **Overseas Exports**: The total exports of major overseas producers increased year - on - year. For example, Thailand's exports in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and Indonesia's increased by 10% year - on - year [37]. - **EUDR Delay**: The implementation of the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (EUDR) has been postponed for one year due to IT and supply - chain issues [38]. - **Other Supply Factors**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited. China's imports of natural and mixed rubber increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export [39][41][51]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Steady Growth - **Automobile Industry Policy**: The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve about 32.3 million automobile sales in 2025, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, and an increase of about 3% year - on - year [57]. - **Tire Market**: The growth momentum of semi - steel tire demand is restricted. Overseas anti - dumping investigations and tariff policies have affected tire exports. However, the production and sales of automobiles and heavy - duty trucks in China from January to August increased year - on - year [58][60][61]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in Natural Rubber Inventory Accumulation - **Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, and the 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123,500 tons as of September 14, 2025 [70][74]. - **Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons [78]. 3.5 Position: Low Position As of September 24, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 183,283 lots, a decrease of 26,214 lots compared with June 30; the total position of 20 - rubber was 119,808 lots, a decrease of 627 lots; the total position of BR was 102,425 lots, an increase of 47,106 lots [82].