新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-28 供需双弱，工业硅多晶硅基本面变化不大 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-11-27，工业硅期货价格偏强震荡运行，主力合约2601开于9000元/吨，最后收于9115元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（120）元/吨，变化（1.33）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓237648手，2025-11-27仓单总数为39555手，较前 一日变化-870手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9500-9600（50）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、 天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计11月27日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库12.9万吨，较上 周持平，社会交割仓库42.1万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货库部分），较上周增加0.2万吨。（不含宁夏、甘肃、内蒙 等地）。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13100-13300（0）元/吨。SMM ...

PVC开工小幅提升，社会库存累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 氯碱日报 | 2025-11-28 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4517元/吨（+28）；华东基差-57元/吨（-18）;华南基差-27元/吨（-28）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（+10）；华南电石法报价4490元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+25）；电石利润-100元/吨（+25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-848元/吨（-28）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-516元/吨（-25）；PVC出口利润-3.4美元/吨（-8.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.5万吨（-0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.21%（+2.06%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%（-0.19%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.37%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.6万吨（-2.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2238元/吨（+9）；山东32%液碱基差106元/吨（-40）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价750元/吨（-10）；山东 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 11 月 28 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 继续走弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 区间交易 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生 ...

集运指数欧线期货主力合约涨超5%，报1448点。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | . | 1万吨 ， | 环比持平 | | 。 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | | 环比减少4 ， | . | | 76% . | 需求持续低迷 | | 多 . | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 ...

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,920 yuan/ton and closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,221 (-79,345) lots, and the open interest was 127,765 (-503) lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a slight oscillating downward trend, failing to continue the rebound of the previous few days. The price closed below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, with a bearish technical outlook. After the macro - positive sentiment faded, the nickel price returned to the fundamental market [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders for shipment, and the shipping efficiency was okay. The downstream ferronickel price was weak, and the iron - making plants' profits were affected. They were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, and some plants had the intention to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (phase one) was expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade premium was in the range of +25 - 26, and there was room for it to decline due to the falling ferronickel price [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The overall spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were adjusted downwards. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained at 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,548 (-396) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,450 (+930) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - With high inventories and an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, the nickel price was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was to focus on range trading, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless steel opened at 12,435 yuan/ton and closed at 12,410 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,697 (-24,902) lots, and the open interest was 122,062 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract showed a slight oscillating downward trend, and its price movement basically followed that of Shanghai nickel. The stainless - steel fundamentals were still weak. The social inventory increased this week, rising 0.64% compared to last week to 946,000 tons. After the macro - positive factors were exhausted, the price was expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [3]. - Earlier this week, the trading volume improved due to the price rebound, but it weakened again yesterday when the price dropped. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 325 - 525 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 883.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was neutral, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5].

农产品日报 | 2025-11-28 苹果库存压力仍存，红枣货源质量下滑 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9529元/吨，较前一日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.02%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-2029，较前一日变动+2；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1229，较前一日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，晚富士库存富士交易氛围平淡，客商调货及库内包装均不多。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农 两级货源为主，成交有限；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，多以外贸渠道小果走货为主， 地面交易基本结束。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价3.0-3.3元/斤，65#、70#出 库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西 洛川产区果农货半商品出库价格3.8-4.3元/斤。库内成交氛围一般，进入短暂的季节性淡季，终端市场消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices will fluctuate due to the combined impact of supply increases and weak demand. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production policies in Q1 2026 and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms [1]. - Fuel oil prices will oscillate. The immediate supply is relatively sufficient, but high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by downstream demand [3]. - Asphalt prices will experience low - level oscillations. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, but the price has shown relative stability around 3000 yuan/ton recently [3]. - PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate. PX has a strong fundamental expectation but a weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - Rubber prices have support. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported after the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts [7]. - Methanol prices will oscillate with a short - term upward bias. The supply from Iran will decline, leading to a reduction in port inventory and a price rebound, but there is an upper limit to the price [7][9]. - Polyolefin prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but the low valuation may prompt downstream buying [9]. - PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but the export situation improves, and the basis is repaired [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, Brent January contract closed up $0.21 to $63.34/barrel, a 0.33% increase; SC2601 closed at 451.6 yuan/barrel, up 6.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% increase. OPEC+ meetings are planned on Sunday, with expectations of stable Q1 2026 production policies and an agreement on evaluating maximum production capacity mechanisms. Russia's oil revenue is under pressure, and the price will oscillate due to supply and demand factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 0.82% to 2471 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 1% to 3033 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah inventories increased. November's western - sourced low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore are expected to be higher, but high freight rates may affect December arrivals. The price will oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan/ton. This week's domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises declined. Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price will oscillate at a low level [3]. - **PTA, EG, PX**: TA601 closed down 1.11% at 4632 yuan/ton; EG2601 closed down 0.59% at 3873 yuan/ton; PX01 closed down 0.83% at 6718 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expectation but weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 85 yuan/ton to 15280 yuan/ton, NR rose 40 yuan/ton to 12205 yuan/ton, and BR rose 40 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price has support [7]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply is stable, but Iranian plants are shutting down due to gas restrictions. Port inventory is expected to decline from mid - December to early January, driving the price to rebound, but there is an upper limit [7][9]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the price of polyolefin products was low, and production was in a loss - making state. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price in the East China market was adjusted upwards. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but export obstacles are basically eliminated, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 27, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable Q1 2026 oil production policies and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms. Eight OPEC+ countries that increased production in 2025 are expected to keep their production suspension policies unchanged in Q1 2026 [16]. - Russia's Ural crude oil discount has widened, and the US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, increasing pressure on Russia's oil revenue [16]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [18][20][24] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][53] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Charts cover spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of LLDPE and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View - The methanol futures price showed an upward trend on Thursday night, with the spot price in the East China mainstream area also rising. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, inventory, demand, and overseas news. With the news of overseas Iranian device shutdowns and port destocking, the methanol market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2070 - 2160. A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 6 yuan to 2123 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China mainstream area rose by 17 yuan to 2105 yuan/ton. The long - position holdings decreased by 23,122 lots to 652,000 lots, and the short - position holdings increased by 39,773 lots to 784,400 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate was 89.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The overseas methanol operating rate was 73.2%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - **Inventory**: The total methanol port inventory in China was 1363,500 tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 80,300 tons, and that in South China decreased by 35,500 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.19% [1] - **Demand**: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises were 86,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.34%. The olefin operating rate was 91%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%; the methyl chloride operating rate was 80%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; the acetic acid operating rate was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate was 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.9%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - **External Factors**: The end of the US government shutdown, the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials, and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting suppressed the temporarily warming market sentiment [1] Market Logic - According to market news, there were reports of continued shutdowns of Iranian devices overseas, with a total of 6 production lines with a capacity of 9.9 million tons shut down. This week, the ports destocked, while the production areas had a slight inventory build - up. The import volume in October was 1.612 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13%. It is expected that 3 MTO devices will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. The methanol market will be bullishly oscillating under the influence of overseas news. Future focus should be on the port inventory destocking amplitude and the start - stop of Iranian devices [1] Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Downward Bias [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No Rating Provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is stable, and the market is oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, and the steel mills' profitability is declining. The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke has eased, but the market sentiment is weak. The supply of thermal coal is tightening at the end of the month, and the price is oscillating [1][2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3093 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3293 yuan/ton. Rebar's production, sales, and inventory all declined, and destocking was in line with the season. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, while inventory and demand decreased, and high inventory still suppressed the market [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of destocking, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has been well alleviated. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has narrowed significantly. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Building material demand may weaken later, which may drag down plates [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 119.1 million tons, a 15.30% increase from the previous day. The total transaction volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 143.0 million tons, a 7.26% decrease from the previous day. The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.60 million tons from the previous week [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week, port inventories continued to rise, and the average daily hot - metal output decreased slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has intensified. The profitability of steel mills has been declining, and downstream steel mills have started to cut production. Some iron ore inventories are locked due to non - market factors, and if these factors are removed, the iron ore price will face great pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coke market was stable, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts. For coking coal, supply disturbances were frequent, and the online auction failure rate was high. The import of Mongolian coal resumed normal traffic, and the market sentiment was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal weakly stable at around 1000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the supply remained tight, the market was pessimistic about future prices, speculative purchases were insufficient, and inventories accumulated at mines, ports, and steel mills. With the weakening of terminal demand in the off - season, coal prices were still under pressure in the short term. For coke, the production of steel mills and independent coking plants increased rapidly this week, inventories in each link except ports increased slightly, and the overall coke inventory increased slightly. The fundamental contradiction has eased, and the coke price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [5]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices oscillated. Near the end of the month, the supply of some coal mines tightened, which supported prices. The shipments of large terminal operators and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgical and chemical industries was active. However, affected by port price cuts, the sales of some coal mines were not smooth, and the wait - and - see sentiment spread. At ports, the market sentiment weakened, and downstream procurement demand was cold. Northern port inventories accumulated rapidly, and the pressure on traders to sell increased. The import bid price of coal decreased, and the market expectation was not good [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices have oscillated. In the long - term, the supply is still loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [7].