Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - PVC unilateral: Neutral; PVC inter - period: Wait - and - see; PVC inter - variety: None [4] - Caustic soda unilateral: Wait - and - see; Caustic soda inter - period: SH10 - 01 long the spread when prices are low; Caustic soda inter - variety: None [5] Group 2: Core Views - PVC exports in July were 330,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 113%. From January to July, the cumulative exports were 2.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 57%. Due to the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, PVC exports in July exceeded expectations. However, the overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak, with high supply pressure and low downstream demand [2] - The upstream production of caustic soda maintains a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. The demand side shows that the alumina industry has stable profits and production, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has also increased slightly. The inventory of caustic soda is decreasing, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is at a medium level compared to the same period [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Price and Basis - PVC main contract closing price: 5,008 yuan/ton (+7); East China basis: - 288 yuan/ton (- 17); South China basis: - 208 yuan/ton (- 27) [1] - East China calcium carbide - based PVC spot price: 4,720 yuan/ton (- 10); South China calcium carbide - based PVC spot price: 4,800 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] Upstream Production Profit - Semi - coke price: 630 yuan/ton (+0); Calcium carbide price: 2,755 yuan/ton (+0); Calcium carbide profit: - 39 yuan/ton (+0); PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit: - 231 yuan/ton (+21); PVC ethylene - based production gross profit: - 540 yuan/ton (- 51); PVC export profit: 24.7 US dollars/ton (+6.5) [1] Inventory and Operating Rate - PVC factory inventory: 327,000 tons (- 10,000); PVC social inventory: 493,000 tons (+12,000); PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate: 79.21% (+1.38%); PVC ethylene - based operating rate: 77.92% (+0.37%); PVC overall operating rate: 78.84% (+1.09%) [1] Downstream Orders - Production enterprise pre - sales volume: 791,000 tons (- 41,000) [1] Caustic Soda Price and Basis - SH main contract closing price: 2,655 yuan/ton (+57); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis: - 30 yuan/ton (- 57) [1] - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: 840 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda spot price: 1,340 yuan/ton (+10) [1] Upstream Production Profit - Shandong caustic soda single - product profit: 1,634 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine): 730.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC): 583.78 yuan/ton (- 10.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC): 1,367.74 yuan/ton (- 10.00) [1] Inventory and Operating Rate - Liquid caustic soda factory inventory: 437,800 tons (- 23,900); Flake caustic soda factory inventory: 23,300 tons (+1,200); Caustic soda operating rate: 84.10% (- 1.00%) [1] Downstream Operating Rate - Alumina operating rate: 85.64% (- 0.09%); Printing and dyeing operating rate in East China: 61.46% (+2.18%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate: 86.04% (+1.07%) [1]

化工日报 | 2025-08-21 韩国石化业或削减产能，关注EG成本端影响 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4477元/吨（较前一交易日变动+93元/吨，幅度+2.12%），EG华东市场现货价 4502元/吨（较前一交易日变动+47元/吨，幅度+1.05%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）90元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 在石化产业反内卷消息以及对于韩国石化行业重组的担忧下，周三下午化工板块大幅上涨。当前韩国MEG产能大 多均已停产，目前在运行的仅乐天丽水 1#2#,KPIC 以及道达尔四套装置，共计乙二醇产能在 55 万吨附近，其中 乐天丽水 2#16万吨的MEG于 2024 年 12月底停车，重启待定，KPIC18.5 万吨装置以生产 EO 为主，因此该消息 对EG的直接影响较小，目前影响集中在石脑油裂解装置，市场担忧对成本端乙烯价格产生影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-49美元/吨（环比+4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-116元/吨（环比 +7元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为54.7万吨（环比-0.6万吨）；根据 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-21 现货区域流通量增加，行情延续偏弱震荡 市场分析 1、8月20日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3454元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌4元/吨，跌幅 0.01%；持仓217538手，环比下降2214手，成交146021手，环比上涨4045手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3856—4086元/吨；山东，3450—3870元/吨；华南，3480—3530元/吨； 华东，3580—3750元/吨。 昨日华北以及华南市场价格小幅下跌，其余地区暂时以持稳为主。近期油价走势偏弱，叠加沥青自身基本面一般， 市场情绪谨慎。目前来看供需两弱格局大体延续，在天气与资金因素影响下刚需改善乏力，投机需求同样偏弱， 社会库存去化幅度弱于季节性，整体供应较为充裕。由于沥青自身基本面支撑乏力，未来如果油价持续下跌，则 沥青市场价格也将跟随进一步走弱，短期则需要关注俄乌和谈进展给油市情绪带来的额外扰动。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment has improved, but the steel price is expected to have limited adjustment space due to cost support [1] - The iron ore market is affected by environmental production restrictions and supply - demand changes, with short - term intensified contradictions and long - term loose supply [3] - The supply of coking coal and coke is recovering slowly, and the price is expected to move sideways, with the need to focus on supply recovery and downstream restocking [6] - The thermal coal market has a weakening demand, with short - term price fluctuations and a long - term loose supply pattern [8] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract at 3402 yuan/ton. National building material production slightly decreased, and total inventory increased; plate production and inventory both slightly increased. Spot trading was average, with better low - price transactions and recovered speculative sentiment [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Building material production and sales continued to weaken, and inventory increased month - on - month. Plate production and sales increased month - on - month, but high steel prices affected exports. The market needs to control supply by compressing profits, but cost support is strong [1] - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for other trading types [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties had small fluctuations. Total port transactions were 119.0 million tons, up 3.48% month - on - month; forward spot transactions were 167.5 million tons, up 74.84% month - on - month [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply increased as shipments rebounded and sea - floating iron ore arrived at ports. Demand was affected by intensified production restrictions in Tangshan. Inventory decreased from a high level. Short - term contradictions intensified, and long - term supply was loose [3] - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for other trading types [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures contracts fluctuated. Some coke enterprises faced production restrictions, and the price of coking coal in the main production areas declined steadily. Imported Mongolian coal trading was quiet [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Coke supply was expected to shrink due to approaching parades. Coking plants' seventh price increase was not implemented. Coking coal supply was slowly recovering, and some mines had inventory accumulation [6] - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading; no strategies for other trading types [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices declined steadily. Power coal consumption decreased, and demand weakened. Port market sentiment declined, and import coal had a price advantage [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Production area supply was slowly recovering. Short - term prices fluctuated, and long - term supply was loose [8] - Strategy: No strategy provided [8]

铝合金和原铝价差收窄 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-21 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20520元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨，较 上一交易日变化20元/吨；中原A00铝价20440元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至-80元/吨；佛山A00 铝价录20480元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-35元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-08-20日沪铝主力合约开于20540元/吨，收于20535元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，最 高价达20540元/吨，最低价达到20430元/吨。全天交易日成交128168手，全天交易日持仓228028手。 库存方面，截止2025-08-20，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.7万吨，较上一期变化1.9吨，仓单库存62938 吨，较上一交易日变化-2529吨，LME铝库存479525吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-08-20SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3220元/吨，山东价格录得3205元/吨，河南价格录得 3225元/吨，广西价格录得33 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - South Korean petrochemical companies may cut 2.7 - 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity, which has significantly boosted the downstream prices of domestic olefin derivatives. South Korean cracked pure benzene accounts for 3.5% of the total overseas pure benzene capacity, and the impact is limited. South Korean styrene accounts for 16% of overseas styrene capacity, which may support overseas styrene prices. However, both products still face significant inventory pressure, and the potential impact on EB supply is greater than that on BZ in terms of price spreads. [3] - The high - level pure benzene port inventory has slightly declined, and the pure benzene basis has recently shown signs of stabilization and a slight increase. There are scheduled maintenance works for South Korean aromatics in August - September, and the import pressure has not further increased. The overall downstream operating rate remains relatively high, and the demand is at a seasonal peak, driving the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. For styrene, the port inventory has accumulated again, and the downstream still faces inventory pressure. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - No specific data analysis provided, only mentions figures such as the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB main contract basis [9][13][19] 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene main contract basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 23), and the styrene main contract basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 64 yuan/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 331 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress. [1] - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 173 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton), and pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 158 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea for pure benzene is 54.6 US dollars/ton (- 15.1 US dollars/ton). [1] 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 144,000 tons (- 2000 tons), and the operating rate of its downstream products such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+ 5.31%), phenol is 77.00% (+ 0.00%), aniline is 71.57% (- 1.89%), and adipic acid is 61.70% (+ 7.30%). [1] - Styrene East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons), East China commercial inventory is 76,500 tons (+ 7000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.2% (+ 0.5%). [1] 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 98 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 102 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (+ 20 yuan/ton). [2] - EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+ 14.41%), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+ 1.70%), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+ 0.00%). [2] 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 1820 yuan/ton (- 25), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1336 yuan/ton (+ 50). [1]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 120,330 yuan/ton and closed at 119,930 yuan/ton, a change of -0.48% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 63,676 lots and an open interest of 50,856 lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel switched to the 2510 contract. The night session opened flat at 120,430 yuan/ton, fluctuating between 120,200 - 121,080 yuan/ton. Affected by weak new - energy demand and stainless - steel inventory pressure, it failed to break through the key resistance level of 121,000 yuan/ton. The night session closed down 0.33% at 120,450 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,118 lots, about 15% less than the previous day. The day session briefly rose to 120,940 yuan/ton but then fell to an intraday low of 119,620 yuan/ton due to increased domestic inventory and the continued decline of LME nickel. The final closing price dropped to 120,060 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots, about 23% more than the night session. LME nickel fell 0.73% and 0.60% on August 19 and 20 respectively, reaching a two - week low of 15,060 US dollars/ton [2] - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the nickel ore price is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly 32 US dollars. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, but iron plants are still in losses and are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in August decreased slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second phase of August to decline [3] - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38,164 tons, a 124% increase from the previous month and a 703% increase from the same period last year. Among them, the imports of other unwrought non - alloy nickel were 35,506 tons, accounting for 93% of the refined nickel imports. Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was fair. The spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable, with a slight increase in the spot premiums of Jinchuan and Russian nickel [3] Strategy - In the short term, nickel prices will be weak, with large inventory pressure and a significant increase in imports. In the medium term, the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 12,820 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots and an open interest of 135,764 lots [5] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,000 yuan/ton in the night session, then quickly dropped to an intraday low of 12,855 yuan/ton due to the decline of LME nickel, and finally closed down 140 yuan at 12,885 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.07%, with a trading volume of 134,000 lots, about 18% more than the previous day. The night session showed the characteristic of short - side active position - increasing, and the net short positions of the top 20 seats increased to 11,449 lots. The day session briefly rebounded to 12,895 yuan/ton but then fell again due to the accumulation of stainless - steel social inventory and the expectation of the release of Indonesian nickel ore quotas. The final closing price dropped to 12,820 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.50%, with a trading volume of 149,700 lots, a five - day high. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,215 tons to 44,298 tons, a decline of 4.76% [6] - The spot market trading of stainless steel is increasingly light, mainly concentrated on low - price resources. Affected by the decline of the futures market and the completion of downstream restocking, there is a strong bearish sentiment in the future market. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,050 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is also 13,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 310 - 510 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [6] Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand and no fundamental change in the fundamentals, it is expected that the stainless - steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250821：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/21 指标 单位 | | 变动 近期趋势 | 今值 | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | 16,600.00 | -0.45% | | | | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 16,725.00 | -0.59% | | | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 | -125.00 | 25.00 | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | -15.00 | 10.00 | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 | -39.48 | 2.32 | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 价差 | -67.90 | -1.60 | | | | | | | | | 沪铅 ...

2025 年 08 月 21 日 短纤：旺季需求临近，震荡偏强 瓶片：下方空间有限，震荡偏强 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 6420 | 6344 | 76 | PF09-10 | -84 | -88 | ব | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6504 | 6432 | 72 | PF10-11 | 12 | 0 | 12 | | | 短纤2511 | 6492 | 6432 | 60 | PF基差 | -14 | 53 | -67 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 287751 | 300740 | -12989 | 短纤华东现 ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） ...