玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/6 | 2026/1/12 | 2026/1/13 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2026/1/6 | 2026/1/12 | 2026/1/13 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河安全 | 959.0 | 996.0 | 996.0 | 37.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1092.0 | 1143.0 | 1096.0 | 4.0 | -47.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 963.0 | 993.0 | 993.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1194.0 | 1241.0 | 1208.0 | 14.0 | -33.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views LLDPE and PP - PE: HD - LL spread narrows, some full - density plants switch to LLDPE production. There is short - term positive feedback in the spot market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The marginal supply of LLDPE is expected to increase, and demand enters the seasonal off - peak season [1]. - PP: The supply and demand are both weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The balance of PP has improved significantly, and the weighted profit has recovered compared with the previous period [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures rose in the morning and then fell back. The spot was purchased as needed. The basis weakened rapidly. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance plans [4]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuated weakly. The supply is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand situation and may fluctuate weakly without new stimuli [7]. Natural Rubber - The supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yield tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. The demand has a certain boost, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to follow the futures to decline and continue to be weak in the short term [12]. - Soda Ash: The market sentiment has declined, and the supply is high while the demand has slightly decreased. The inventory needs to be reduced, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC: The price fluctuated, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. The short - term price is affected by export policies, and short positions should be temporarily on the sidelines [13]. - Caustic Soda: The market is weak. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement. The price is expected to be stable and slightly weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the price follows the crude oil to fluctuate. The strategy is to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [14]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the downstream resistance is strong. The price increase space is limited, and the strategy is to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee when it is high [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and be low - bought in the medium term [15]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to weaken in January, and the price follows the raw materials. The strategy is to short - term fluctuate in the range of 5,000 - 5,300 and low - buy in the medium term [15]. - MEG: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure, and the strategy is to pay attention to the pressure at 4,000 for EG2605 [15]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee should be shrunk when it is high [15]. - Polyester Bottle Chip: The supply and demand both decrease, and the price and processing fee follow the cost. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [15]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the upstream and downstream operating rates have changed slightly. The price is affected by factors such as supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Crude Oil - The oil price rose. The instability in Iran continues, and the potential supply risk supports the short - term strength of the oil price, but the increase is limited due to the weak overall supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices**: The prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LDPE, etc. have also fluctuated [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 6.66%, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 4.69%. The trade - related inventory of PP increased by 15.52% [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.52%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have changed. The spot prices in different regions have also fluctuated [4]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all increased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.54%, and some downstream operating rates decreased [4]. Urea - **Prices**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The production capacity has recovered, and the daily output has reached a high level [7]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the futures inventory in the factory warehouse decreased by 1.74% [9]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: The production in Thailand and Indonesia in November decreased, and the operating rates of some tire enterprises changed [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: The prices of glass in different regions and soda ash in different regions have changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash factory inventory increased [12]. - **Operating Rates**: The soda ash operating rate increased, and the float glass daily melting volume decreased slightly [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms have changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PVC and caustic soda in some regions has increased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the PVC and caustic soda industries have changed slightly [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream products such as pure benzene and styrene have changed [14]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of pure benzene and styrene has changed [14]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream polyester products have changed [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory situation of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. has changed [15]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain have changed slightly [15]. LPG - **Prices**: The futures and spot prices of LPG have increased [17]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG have decreased slightly [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG have changed slightly [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, etc. have increased, and the prices of refined oil products have also changed [19]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products have changed [19].

行业 豆粕 日期 2026 年 1 月 14 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

一、贵金属期货 纽约期金价格呈现波动走势，先是突破4640美元/盎司，日内涨0.56%，随后失守4580美元/盎司，日内 跌0.76%，最终再次突破4600美元/盎司，日内涨0.02%。 现货黄金表现强劲，不仅突破4590美元/盎司，日内涨0.08%，更一度触及每盎司4631.34美元的历史新 高，并突破4630美元/盎司，日内涨0.75%。 白银市场同样活跃，纽约期银突破89美元/盎司，日内涨4.61%，此前也曾突破88美元/盎司，日内涨 3.42%，最终突破87美元/盎司，日内涨0.73%。 现货白银突破89美元/盎司，日内涨4.65%，随后回落至88美元/盎司，日内涨0.16%。 国内市场方面，白银连续主力合约日内涨6%，现报22336.00元。 二、基本金属期货 锡连续主力合约日内涨4%，现报398380.00元。 三、能源与航运期货 WTI原油突破61美元/桶，日内涨2.85%。 国内燃料油连续主力合约表现强势，日内涨5%，现报2560.00元，此前曾涨4%至2536.00元。 美国至1月9日当周API原油库存录得527.8万桶，远超预期的-223.8万桶和前值-276.6万桶。 四、宏观与市场影响 ...

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地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 13 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 沪铜： 沪铜高开高走，日内回落。供给方面，进入 2026 年，目前铜冶 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 166980 元/吨，较前日 上涨 10920 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 159620 元/吨，较前日上涨 4.93%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-8240 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 4940 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体震荡。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 26898 手，较前日增加 928 手 （+3.57%），近 10 个交易日仓单整体增加。 【供需关系】短期供给弹性有限。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market currently has relatively sufficient supply with accelerated national cotton inspection and increased port pick - up after quota issuance. Brazilian cotton is arriving in a concentrated manner, leading to an increase in inventory. As of the week ending January 8th, the inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 0.55% week - on - week, reaching a total of 39.95 million tons [2]. - Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than the previous year's level. Some fabric mills may have early holidays. However, the expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year provides some support to the cotton market. The January US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report is positive, and the short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to macro and policy impacts [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,760 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,765 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 182,457 lots, down 11,680 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,939 lots, down 89 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract positions: 837,159 lots, up 19,206 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions: 16,032 lots, down 153 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 8,410 lots, up 642 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 70 lots, up 10 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,783 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,300 yuan/ton [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,616 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,735 yuan/ton [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S arrival price): 21,025 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S arrival price): 22,352 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,517 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume (monthly): 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 2,048 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days [2]. - Cloth output (monthly): 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; yarn output (monthly): 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount (monthly): 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, up 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; textile yarn, fabric and products export amount (monthly): 12,275,733 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 13.12%, down 0.23%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 13.12%, down 0.22% [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 13.34%, up 0.14%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 8.84%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the 2025/26 US cotton January supply - demand outlook, compared with December, production and ending stocks decreased, while beginning stocks and imports remained unchanged. Production decreased by over 2% to 13.9 million bales, mainly due to the decline in the Delta region. The national average yield decreased by 8% to 856 pounds per acre. Ending stocks decreased by 7% to 4.2 million bales [2]. - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday. The US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lowered production estimates. The weaker US dollar and the rise in the broader commodity market further boosted cotton prices. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed up 0.50 cents, or 0.78%, at 64.91 cents per pound [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4888 | -52 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1615530 | -726208 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1034623 | -24293 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1063153 | -17147 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1150751 | -2432 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -87598 | -14715 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4710 | 10 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4627.69 | -11.54 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4795 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4641.25 | -0.62 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨) | 650 ...

数据显示，1月12日丙烯现货价格报5921元/吨，较上一日上涨50元/吨，当日涨幅为0.85%。最近一周， 丙烯价格累计上涨176.67元/吨，上涨幅度为3.08%；最近一个月，丙烯价格累计下跌299.75元/吨，下跌 幅度为4.82%。 机构观点 消息面 1月12日，郑商所丙烯期货仓单录得15445手，较上一交易日持平；最近一周，丙烯期货仓单整体持平； 最近一个月，丙烯期货仓单累计下降302张，下降幅度为1.92%。 1月12日，丙烯前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓3.21万手，空单持仓3.37万手，多空比 0.95。净持仓为-1623手，相较上日减少232手。 丙烯：多重利好驱动，仍有抬升空间。近期丙烯期现同步上涨。供应端，一是多套PDH存集中检修预 期，2月开工预计大幅下滑至65%左右；二是石脑油征收消费税背景下，裂解装置成本抬升，开工负荷 或有下移；三是伊朗地缘存变数，丙烷及甲醇成本均有扰动，MTO主力装置释放停车消息。需求端， PP开工本周有所下滑但仍维持偏高，粉料利润修复外采装置回归；此外，值得注意的是，聚醚出口退 税取消引发抢出口现象，PO快速拉涨，对丙烯需求支撑强势。综合来看，短期丙 ...