Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The US economy shows resilience as the retail sales in June 2025 had a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, the highest since March this year, and the weekly initial jobless claims were lower than the previous value and expectations. This suppresses the performance of gold prices, but gold still shows resistance. Due to strong uncertainties before the US tariff policy deadline and repeated risk sentiment, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Information - The vice - chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce stated that Thailand will propose to exempt 90% of US goods from tariffs [1] - The EU plans to add service tariffs and export controls on the US as a retaliatory measure after the breakdown of trade negotiations [1] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that the EU's value - added tax is also a form of subsidy, and the US hopes to see VAT reduction and tariff cuts [1] - The nominee for South Korea's foreign minister said he is confident of reaching an agreement before the US tariff takes effect [1] Fed Information - Kugler believes it is appropriate to keep interest rate policy stable "for some time" [2] - Daly thinks whether to cut interest rates in July or September is not the most critical [2] - Bostic said it may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term [2] - Waller believes the Fed should cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive economic indicators from the US, including a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail sales and a decrease in initial jobless claims to 221,000, which alleviates concerns about an economic slowdown [1][3] - The Chinese government is focusing on establishing long-term mechanisms for consumption policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to enhance service consumption and improve residents' consumption capacity through structural reforms [2][3] - The recent measures announced by the National Development and Reform Commission to encourage foreign investment reinvestment in China are part of a broader strategy to stabilize foreign investment and mitigate external uncertainties [3] Group 2 - The A-share market showed positive performance on July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.50% to 3534.48 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.37% to 10913.84 points [4] - The market turnover reached 1.5935 trillion yuan, indicating increased trading activity compared to the previous trading day, with a margin balance of 1.9044 trillion yuan also showing an upward trend [5] - The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross signal, suggesting a positive momentum for certain stocks in the market [6]

从具体品类来看，主要依赖进口的家具、玩具、服装、鞋类和体育用品价格均出现上涨。其中，美国家 具价格环比上涨1%，玩具价格环比上涨1.8%。 美联社报道认为，6月份的CPI数据表明由关税引发的通胀开始显现，这一数据也使得美联储更有可能 维持当前利率不变。 中新社华盛顿7月15日电 (记者 陈孟统)美国劳工部15日发布数据称，美国6月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同 比上涨2.7%，环比上涨0.3%。 美国6月的通胀数据创造了今年2月以来的最大同比涨幅。上述数据也略高于市场普遍预期的2.6%。 美国6月CPI涨幅扩大主要受当月能源价格上涨影响，能源价格环比上涨0.9%，而前值为-1.0%。6月 份，美国汽油和燃油价格指数均"由跌转涨"，环比上涨1.0%。能源服务以及电力价格也延续了上个月的 上涨势头。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，美国6月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%。 不过，白宫驳斥了"6月CPI数据显示关税产生负面影响"的说法。其在15日发表声明指出，尽管进口汽车 被征收了25%的关税、钢铝关税高达50%，但美国新车价格仍出现下降。 美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体表示，美国的"物价很低"，美联储应该 ...

如果美国通胀数据迟迟不上升，那么"最尴尬的人"，或许就是正在等待关税下通胀复燃信号的 鲍威尔，以及那些长期以来一直警告关税将推高美国通胀的经济学家…… 而 今晚，即将公布的美国6月CPI报告，可能就将成为一场关键的"正名之战"…… 目前，在连续四个月高估CPI读数后，不少华尔街机构再度在今晚关键的CPI押注中选择了"押 大" ——预计美国6月CPI数据将出现较高的增速。一些业内人士表示，若美国6月份CPI最终 出现明显上涨，将是美国关税上调正在推高通胀的第一个真正迹象。 事实上，前几个月不温不火的美国通胀数据表现，其实已经让美联储处于了一个较为尴尬的境 地——美联储官员们一直在为年内迄今按兵不动的利率政策进行辩护，他们给出的最常见理由 就是预期关税将推高通胀，但这一效应至今仍始终未见踪影。 而如果今晚的通胀数据表现依然温和——涨幅低于预期，那么几乎可以肯定会引发美国特朗普 再次表达强烈不满。他近来已多次呼吁美联储降息，并屡屡把矛头直接对准美联储主席鲍威尔 本人。 很有意思的是，由于特朗普关税政策带来的一系列不确定性因素，美联储自身其实也没法能精 准把控通胀何时会复燃以及具体的火热程度。在本月初出席欧洲央行年度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding interest rate outlook, primarily driven by differing expectations on the impact of tariff policies on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while the majority remain highly vigilant about potential inflation pressures from the Trump administration's tariff policies [3]. - The minutes indicate limited support for short-term rate cuts, with some officials believing there is no need for any cuts this year [3]. Divergent Opinions Among Officials - The meeting minutes outline three main factions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate paths: 1. The mainstream view anticipates rate cuts later in the year, excluding July. 2. A faction advocates for maintaining current rates throughout the year. 3. A minority believes immediate rate cuts should be enacted in the next meeting [3][4]. Economic Outlook and Implications - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with updated dot plots indicating that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by year-end, while 7 predict no cuts throughout 2025 [4]. - The differing views stem from varying assessments of the economic situation, with some officials believing moderate cuts could stabilize growth amid slowing sectors, while others are concerned about the inflationary effects of tariffs and the risks of premature cuts [4]. Market Impact - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve increase uncertainty regarding future interest rate movements, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming economic data and public statements from officials [4]. - The tension between Trump's pressure and the Federal Reserve's independent judgment complicates monetary policy formulation, with a focus on maintaining economic stability and controlling inflation as core considerations [4].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's current interest rate policy, claiming it is at least 3 percentage points too high, resulting in an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Trump is considering appointing a "shadow chairman" to the Federal Reserve before Chairman Powell's term ends next year to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates [1]

Group 1: Silver Market Overview - The silver price closed at $36.74 per ounce on July 8, with a daily high of $36.86 and a low of $36.27, indicating stability in the market [1] - As of July 7, the silver ETF holdings increased by 66.41 tons, reaching a total of 14,935.15 tons, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The total value of silver ETF holdings on July 8 was approximately $17.66 billion, showing a rise from the previous day's value of about $17.32 billion [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - The increase in silver ETF holdings suggests a growing buying interest, which is likely to support silver prices [2] - Recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's performance may influence market sentiment, particularly concerning interest rates and monetary policy [2][3] - Trump's criticism of Powell's decision to maintain interest rates could lead to expectations of a more dovish monetary policy, which historically tends to benefit precious metals like silver [2][3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The silver market opened at $36.74, experienced a pullback to $36.636, and then rallied to a high of $36.86 before closing at $36.74, forming a long lower shadow candlestick pattern [4] - The price action indicates potential bullish momentum, as the market closed near its opening price after testing lower levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that if Powell misled Congress regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation project, he should resign immediately. Trump has expressed a desire for a successor who supports interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Criticism of Powell - Trump labeled Powell as "terrible" and indicated that misleading Congress would be a valid reason for resignation [1]. - Trump has previously stated that Powell has been slow to adjust interest rates during his presidency, contrasting this with Powell's actions during President Biden's term [1]. - Trump has called for an investigation into Powell's testimony regarding the renovation project, echoing sentiments from other officials like FHFA Director Bill Pulte [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5% since December of the previous year, with no immediate plans for adjustment [3]. - Powell indicated that uncertainty from tariffs has influenced the Fed's decision-making, suggesting that rate cuts may have been possible under different circumstances [3]. - Trump has expressed intentions to appoint a successor who favors interest rate cuts, which could challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve [2].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has called for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign immediately if he misled Congress regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation project [1] Group 1: Criticism of Powell - Trump reiterated his criticism of Powell, labeling his performance as "terrible" and emphasizing that misleading Congress would warrant immediate resignation [1] - Trump has expressed a desire for a successor who would support interest rate cuts, indicating dissatisfaction with Powell's current stance on maintaining rates [1] Group 2: Renovation Controversy - Recent media reports have highlighted issues with the Fed's headquarters renovation, including cost overruns and luxurious features [1] - Powell defended himself during a Senate hearing, claiming that the reports contained "misleading and false" information [1]

Group 1 - Recent gold prices have surpassed $3,344 per ounce amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [2] - A significant price disparity exists in the domestic market, with retail gold prices reaching 1,005 CNY per gram compared to a wholesale price of 756 CNY per gram, indicating a potential market imbalance [2] - Historical patterns suggest that July could be a pivotal month for gold prices, reminiscent of last year's fluctuations between $3,200 and $3,300 per ounce before a breakout [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is a critical factor, with a recent employment report causing a drop in expectations for a September rate cut from 78% to 65%, which could impact gold prices significantly [4] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with potential for a "black swan" event that could cause gold prices to spike to $3,400 per ounce if Israel engages in ground operations [4] - Technical analysis indicates that the $3,400 per ounce level is a focal point, with previous attempts to breach this level failing, and a drop below $3,280 could lead to further declines [4] Group 3 - Institutional investors are adjusting their strategies, with HSBC raising its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,215 per ounce while advising clients to reduce positions above $3,350 per ounce [5] - Market participants are employing varied strategies, with some investing weekly to maintain an average cost below 760 CNY per gram, while others engage in high-frequency trading within specific price ranges [5] - The upcoming U.S. economic data is seen as a potential "ticking time bomb" for gold prices, with a core CPI below 2.8% possibly driving prices to $3,500 per ounce, while strong GDP growth could trigger a sell-off [5]