1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel, suggesting a short - term bearish outlook for both [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Short - term view**: Down; Medium - term view: Sideways; Intraday view: Sideways to weak; Overall view: Bearish in the short - term [1]. - **Core logic**: The market sentiment has improved after a week of the Israel - Iran conflict, with the gold price rising and then falling, and the US stocks rebounding. The Fed's hawkish stance in the interest - rate meeting this week also puts pressure on the gold price. Although the dot plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, the number of committee members in favor of keeping rates unchanged has increased. In early June, the Sino - US meeting in the UK did not meet market expectations, and US inflation was lower than expected, leading to increased expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weakening US dollar. However, New York gold failed to break through the Q2 trading range, indicating strong resistance above. In the medium - to long - term, if the Middle East situation is under control, the gold price may remain under pressure in Q3 [3]. Nickel - **Short - term view**: Down; Medium - term view: Sideways; Intraday view: Sideways to weak; Overall view: Bearish in the short - term [1]. - **Core logic**: Yesterday, the nickel price fluctuated below 119,000 yuan and continued to do so during the night session. On the fundamental side, rainfall in the Philippines has affected shipments, and the slow approval of PKRB in Indonesia has kept the ore price strong. The stainless - steel market downstream is weak, and the negative feedback has compressed the smelter's profit. Inventory shows a divergence between domestic and overseas markets, with domestic inventory decreasing and overseas inventory increasing. In the short term, non - ferrous metals are falling, and nickel, which was previously weak, has limited room for further decline. Technically, the short - term main contract price has rebounded from the bottom, and attention should be paid to the technical resistance at 120,000 yuan [5].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses on June 19, with red dates and SC crude oil contracts rising over 4% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1403.97 points, up 9.01 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1946.50 points, up 12.50 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Optimistic sentiment drove red date futures to rise significantly by 4.87%, attributed to favorable weather conditions in the Xinjiang production area and reduced risk control parameters by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [2] - Red date futures saw a net increase of 24,000 contracts and a net inflow of over 260 million yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] - Analysts caution that high inventory levels and slow destocking may pose risks to the current bullish sentiment in red dates [2] Group 3 - Ethylene glycol continued its upward trend, rising over 2% on June 19, marking five consecutive days of gains, supported by strong fundamentals and reduced port inventory [3] - As of June 19, ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.56 million tons to 537,000 tons, remaining at a low level since 2022 [3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to lead to a decline in ethylene glycol imports, further strengthening the bullish market atmosphere [3] Group 4 - The main contract for the European shipping index fell over 4% due to weak demand expectations despite ongoing price increases by shipping companies [4] - The easing of the China-U.S. trade situation has reduced pressure on shipping routes, but long-term price stability remains uncertain [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to impact shipping rates and market volatility in the near term [4] Group 5 - Precious metals faced downward pressure, with silver futures dropping over 2% and gold futures also declining, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals [5] - Despite the declines, market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [5] - The production of polysilicon continues to face challenges, with the main contract hitting a new low, reflecting cautious procurement attitudes among manufacturers [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is influenced by factors such as Fed's stance, US economic data, and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold is in a long - term bullish trend, while short - term fluctuations are affected by geopolitical variables. Silver shows strong rebounds but requires careful position control [5][6]. - In the base metals market, copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term due to global copper supply shortages and strategic importance, but short - term risks need to be watched. Zinc has a long - term supply - increase and demand - weak situation, while short - term it has limited downside due to cost support. Aluminum shows short - term strength in the near - month but faces supply - related pressure. Nickel is under pressure due to supply and downstream inventory issues [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply surplus persists, and prices are expected to decline due to increasing inventory expectations [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold slightly declined as geopolitical situations did not expand. Silver showed strong rebounds. SHFE gold was at 785.42, up 0.04% from the previous value, and SHFE silver was at 9045, up 2.04% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The Fed kept rates unchanged, US economic data weakened, and there were geopolitical uncertainties. In the long - term, the trend of reducing dollar dependence and fiscal - monetary easing remains, supporting the long - term bullish view of gold [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, consider long - term positions when the opportunity arises, with short - term attention on the 800 resistance. For silver, pay attention to recent high resistance and control positions [6]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, and there are concerns about overseas soft - squeeze risks. The consumption off - season has led to downstream hesitation, but green copper demand has offset some traditional demand shortages [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short - term long positions cautiously and take partial profits at high prices. Be optimistic about copper in the long - term. SHFE copper should be monitored in the range of [78000, 79500], and LME copper in the range of [9650, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated around the upper integer level. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 21955 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand has weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe in the short - term. In the long - term, take short positions on rallies. SHFE zinc should be monitored in the range of [21800, 22200], and LME zinc in the range of [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - month, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend. The main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20680 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In June, the reduction in domestic aluminum ingot casting led to inventory depletion. The overseas bauxite supply is high, and the alumina supply surplus continues [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main contract should be monitored in the range of [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel showed a weak trend. The main contract of SHFE nickel closed at 118480 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the decline in Indonesian nickel ore prices have weakened cost support. Stainless steel inventory pressure has resurfaced as the terminal enters the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main contract of nickel should be monitored in the range of [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and rose, with an intraday high - then - low movement [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply surplus of lithium carbonate persists. During the off - season of terminal demand, production has recovered to a high level, and inventory is expected to increase, driving prices down [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies in the range of [59000 - 61000] [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overnight overseas asset movements suggest that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, and the market believes the conflict will not escalate. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. [1][3][14] - Domestically, the economy maintains a weak recovery, and the market is awaiting policy signals that may be released at the Lujiazui Forum. The A-share market had a volume - shrinking rebound on Monday, with broad - based indices performing well. However, the market currently lacks the conditions for an upward breakthrough and is expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. [3][14] - The asset allocation and operation strategy remain unchanged, with a balanced allocation between blue - chip and technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices. Long positions can be tested when the market index is below the 20 - day moving average. [3][14] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in June was - 16, significantly lower than the expected - 5.5 and the previous value of - 9.2, indicating a cooling of the US manufacturing industry. [1][5] - Trump announced the signing of a trade agreement between the US and the UK. The EU is reported to be prepared to conditionally accept a 10% unified tariff from the US. [1][5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, but extreme situations such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have not occurred. Market sentiment has cooled, with the US dollar index closing down, US Treasury yields falling at both short and long ends, gold and crude oil prices dropping, and the three major US stock indices rising. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated slightly higher. The market believes the Middle East conflict will not escalate. [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8%, lower than the previous value of 6.1%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 6.4%, higher than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5.1%. Holidays and national subsidies significantly supported consumption. [2][6] - On Monday, the market opened lower and then fluctuated higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%. The market showed a volatile recovery trend, with weak offensive momentum after the early - morning rebound and then moving sideways. Trading volume decreased. [2][6] - In terms of sectors, media, communication, computer, and real estate led the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, beauty care, non - ferrous metals, textile and apparel, and pharmaceuticals led the losses. There were 3557 rising stocks and 1638 falling stocks in the whole market. [2][6] 1.3 Important News - **Tariffs**: Trump announced the signing of a trade agreement between the US and the UK. The EU is reported to conditionally accept a 10% unified tariff from the US, though the EU says this is speculative. India and the US plan to sign a temporary agreement by July 9. The progress of Japan - US trade negotiations is unclear. Trump said the US - Canada agreement must include tariffs, while Canada wants the US to cancel tariffs on its exports. [7] - **Israel - Iran Conflict**: The US "Nimitz" aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East. Iran is seeking talks with the US and Israel to end hostilities. Netanyahu does not rule out assassinating Khamenei. Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement and is considering going to the Middle East. Iran's foreign minister said Iran has never left the negotiation table but is currently focused on dealing with aggression. [8][9] - **Other News**: Trump will delay sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. The cooperation between OpenAI and Microsoft is at risk. Hong Kong's Monetary Authority will process stablecoin license applications as soon as possible. China is deeply concerned about the Israel - Iran conflict. The National Medical Products Administration has drafted a consultation paper on optimizing the review and approval of innovative drug clinical trials. Dalian and Hubei will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists starting from July 1, 2025. [10][11][13] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Overnight overseas asset movements suggest easing Middle East geopolitical tensions, and the market believes the conflict will not escalate. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. [14] - Domestically, the economy maintains a weak recovery, and the market is awaiting policy signals from the Lujiazui Forum. The A - share market had a volume - shrinking rebound on Monday, with broad - based indices performing well. The capital - stock game situation in sectors remains unchanged. The Monday rebound alleviated market concerns about index adjustments, but the market currently lacks the conditions for an upward breakthrough and is expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. [14] - The asset allocation and operation strategy remain unchanged, with a balanced allocation between blue - chip and technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices. Long positions can be tested when the market index is below the 20 - day moving average. [14] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. [16] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It shows the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the net positions of the top 20 member institutions. [17] - **Futures Basis and Spread Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis and spread trends of different futures contracts over time, including the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300. [19][24][28] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price change rates, trading volumes, and other data of major stock indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as various industry sectors. [40] - **Market Style Impact on Indexes**: It analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [41][42] - **Index Valuation and Related Charts**: There are charts showing the valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices and Shenwan industry sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, and changes in trading value. [43][47][49] 4. Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations and Interest Rates**: The report includes charts showing the central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the Shibor interest rate levels over time. [54][55][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Each metal has its own unique price trend and influencing factors. The short - term price trends of different metals are diverse, with some expected to be range - bound, some to rise and then fall, and some to continue to weaken [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: The price of copper rebounded. LME copper closed up 0.49% at $9,695 per ton, and the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78,650 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME inventory decreased by 7,150 tons to 107,325 tons. In China, social and bonded area inventories increased slightly, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 47,000 tons. The supply of spot goods was tight, and the holders still had the sentiment of holding up prices. The import loss of domestic copper spot decreased, and the premium of Yangshan copper increased. The substitution advantage of scrap copper slightly improved [1]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The support for copper prices is still strong due to low inventory, but the weakening demand will limit the upward space. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 77,800 - 79,200 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,600 - 9,760 per ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: The price of aluminum declined first and then rebounded. LME aluminum closed up 0.56% at $2,517 per ton, and the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20,385 yuan per ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The decline in domestic inventory narrowed. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 351,200 tons. The spot in the East China region was at a discount of 10 yuan per ton to the futures, and the discount narrowed. The downstream mainly purchased on demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise and then fall in the short term, and the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is expected to continue. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,470 - 2,540 per ton [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.22% at 16,977 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S rose by $0.5 to $1,992 per ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream battery enterprises had weak consumption, and the pick - up situation was poor. The operating rate of primary lead smelting reached a historical high of around 70%, and the finished product inventory of secondary lead remained at a high level of 29,000 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: The price of lead is expected to continue to weaken [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.18% at 21,639 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S rose by $22.5 to $2,632.5 per ton [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore remained in an oversupply situation, and the profit of zinc smelters increased again. Although the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased again, the overall domestic visible inventory stabilized, and there was still a large downward risk in the future [6]. - **Outlook**: There is a large downward risk in the future [6]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply of tin ore was in short supply, and some smelting enterprises carried out maintenance or stepped - up production cuts. Terminal demand entered the off - season, and the downstream purchasing willingness was significantly weakened after the tin price rose to around 260,000 yuan per ton [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan per ton, and the LME tin price is expected to be in the range of $31,000 - 33,000 per ton [8]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated downward. - **Supply and Demand**: The shortage of nickel ore is expected to gradually ease, and the price of nickel ore will be under pressure. The price of nickel iron was dragged down by the weak demand for stainless steel. The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen, and the price of nickel sulfate may be under pressure. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged [10]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price may further decline after the spot demand weakens. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound and sell at high prices. The reference range for the main SHFE nickel contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500 per ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 60,187 yuan, down 0.41% from the previous trading day. The LC2509 contract closed at 59,780 yuan, down 0.03% from the previous closing price [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved substantially. Domestic supply shows strong resilience, and production in June increased month - on - month. The downstream entered the relative off - season [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory and oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 59,000 - 60,800 yuan per ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 0.04% to 2,846 yuan per ton [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The spot prices in various regions decreased. The import window opened. The futures inventory remained unchanged. The pattern of over - capacity in alumina remains difficult to change [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of the year. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,750 - 3,100 yuan per ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The main stainless - steel contract closed at 12,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market supply - demand contradiction is sharp, with high inventory and weak demand. The expectation of the US to impose tariffs on steel - made household appliances has increased, which has a negative impact on downstream exports [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and there is a possibility of further price decline [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend. Last week, the cooling of US inflation strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a double - drop in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. The attack on a nuclear facility in Iran boosted safe - haven demand, and central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows jointly boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and retail data. Geopolitical risks may push up the gold price, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but be vigilant against the impact of hawkish statements from the Fed or better - than - expected economic data [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, and it may be close to the end of the trend. Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but the game of Fed policies led to profit - taking, resulting in high - level volatility throughout the week. The strong industrial attribute (surge in photovoltaic demand and repair of the gold - silver ratio), combined with the weakening US dollar, magnifies the volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial supply gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and the pressure of long - position profit - taking. The logic of catch - up growth remains unchanged, but the volatility intensifies [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, US inflation cooling, geopolitical events, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's meeting and data. Geopolitical risks may push up the price, but beware of Fed's hawkish statements and strong economic data [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 774 - 782, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][22][24] Silver Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [34]. - **Trend Logic**: Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but Fed policy games led to profit - taking. Strong industrial attributes and a weak US dollar magnify volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's meeting and economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and profit - taking pressure [34]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would run strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper pressure at 8900 - 9000 [37]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will run strongly, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][49]

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is significant, with the central parity rate rising by 12 basis points to 7.1803 RMB per USD, indicating a stronger RMB and a weaker USD [2][6] - The RMB's appreciation benefits those traveling abroad or purchasing imported goods, as it allows for more favorable exchange rates and increased purchasing power [2][3] - The recent US-China trade talks have yielded positive outcomes, with both sides reaching a consensus on key issues, which is expected to stabilize global supply chains and boost investor confidence [3][4] Group 2 - The US dollar is under pressure, with lower-than-expected CPI data leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could further weaken the dollar [6] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by China's economic recovery and increasing global interest in RMB-denominated assets, suggesting a potential for continued strength in the currency [6][4] - The evolving global economic landscape may enhance the RMB's position in international payments, indicating a future where the RMB could gain more prominence [6][4]

继4月22日触及3499美元高点后，金价步入调整。短期驱动因素转向，特朗普政府关税政策暂缓执行，叠加地缘政治紧张局势有 所降温，削弱了黄金的避险需求。同时，美联储维持当前利率不变，并强调需等待通胀与经济前景进一步明朗化后再行决策， 对金价构成压制。 贸易层面，5月8日，特朗普宣布与英国达成贸易协议，中美两国也同意降低关税。不过美国的关税平均税率仍处于历史高位， 特朗普与其他贸易伙伴国的谈判也只是暂缓执行，后续还存在着不确定性。 地缘政治方面，俄乌冲突出现进展，乌克兰已向俄罗斯提交停火协议。美伊谈判亦接近尾声，特朗普表示未来数周有望达成协 议；伊朗方面称，若协议达成，将考虑允许IAEA派遣美国核查员监督其核活动。 百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，当前基本面短期内对黄金上涨不利。不过，进入6月，美国国债上限以及美联储 年中最重要的一次议息会议非常值得期待，美国国债出现实质性违约的概率不大，但以何种方式解决美国即将到期的巨额债 务，或将又是一场"好戏"。特朗普发动的关税战和美国巨额的债务正在损害美国的信用，中长期来看将促进黄金继续上涨。 技术面，黄金从4月22日之后进入调整，陷入宽幅震荡，月线多头趋势，周 ...

Market Sentiment - The latest US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) is reported at 618 points, with a 7-day moving average of 556 points, indicating an overall downward trend [3][7][8] - The sentiment indicator from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that 51.5% of retail investors are bearish on the stock market, while 29.4% are bullish, resulting in a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 0.57, an increase from the previous value of 0.35 [3][9] - The Fear and Greed Index improved rapidly last week, closing at 62 points, moving from 'neutral' to 'greed', and remained in the 'greed' zone throughout the week [3][10] Global Market Overview - The global equity market experienced a weekly decline of 0.3%, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, which saw a decline of 0.3% [12] - Bitcoin showed exceptional performance with a weekly increase of 6.3%, making it the best-performing asset class for the week, while gold rose by 2.6% [12] US Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index declined by 0.5% for the week, while the seven major tech stocks fell by 0.7%, and the Golden Dragon Index weakened with a 1.5% drop [12][13] - In terms of investment style, small-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks, and large-cap growth stocks outperformed small-cap growth stocks [12][13] Industry Performance - Among the 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 18 showed gains, with coal, electrical equipment, and textile apparel among the top performers [15] - A total of 21 secondary industries outperformed the S&P 500 index, which declined by 0.5% [15] Valuation Metrics - As of now, 360 S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, with 76% (274 companies) exceeding EPS expectations, slightly above the 10-year average of 75% [3] - The current S&P 500 PE (TTM) is at 25.3 times, slightly above the 10-year average of 24.5 times, placing it in the 70th percentile over the past decade [3][10] - The forward PE for the S&P 500 decreased slightly from approximately 21.7 times to 21.6 times, while forward EPS fell from $262.4 to $261.7, a decline of about 0.3% [3][10] Strategy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and balance sheet reduction in May, aligning with expectations, and emphasized the significant uncertainty of tariff policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - The report suggests that the worst of tariff uncertainty has passed, with expectations of more countries gradually signing trade agreements with the US [3] - The S&P 500 valuation is not considered high, and earnings are performing well, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the market [3]

有色金属日报 2025-5-12 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 国内黑色系商品延续弱势，铝价受影响走势偏弱，不过库存重新去化使得铝价短线企稳，昨日伦铝收 涨 1.18%至 2408 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 19570 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量 58.3 万手， 环比增加 2.6 万手，盘面空头继续增仓，期货仓单 6.6 万吨，环比减少 0.3 万吨，总体维持偏低水 平。根据 SMM 统计，国内铝锭社会库存环比周二减少 1.6 万吨，至 62 万吨，铝棒库 ...