日本即将迎来两大关键风险事件——7月9日对等关税大限到期、7月20日参议院选举。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利发布最新研报指出，短期内，这两大事件是影响日元和日债收益率波动的催化剂。 据央视新闻，当地时间6日，日本首相称不会在日美贸易谈判中轻易妥协。大摩指出，若美日贸易谈判破裂，对等关税提高，这 会加剧对全球经济增长的担忧，引发避险模式，进而推高日元。因此，摩根士丹利建议维持做空美元/日元，目标价135，止损位 151。 随后市场将目光汇聚在7月20日日本参议院选举。若执政党失利，市场会预期更激进的财政刺激，这会推高日本超长期国债收益 率。 7月9日逼近，贸易谈判破裂将推高日元 摩根士丹利强调，短期内风险事件是7月9日"对等关税"暂缓期的最后期限。 目前美国和日本的谈判陷入僵局，主要卡在汽车关税问题上。据央视新闻，特朗普还威胁称，如果谈不成，日本的对等关税总税 率可能从24%提高到30%-35%。 不过，摩根士丹利指出，许多市场参与者对关税问题持相对乐观态度，认为7月9日的期限可能会延长，最终谈妥的关税税率不会 高于目前水平。 例如，6月中旬QUICK外汇月度调查显示，近一半受访者认为7月9日前会宣布一项政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Mizuho Asia Ltd. anticipates that the People's Bank of China will utilize targeted short-term and medium-term tools to supplement liquidity and guide a slight decrease in market repurchase rates in the coming weeks [1][7]. Group 1: Subsidy Program - The Chinese government has confirmed the issuance of the third batch of the "trade-in" subsidy program, expected to allocate approximately 70 billion RMB, which will account for half of the remaining budget for 2025 [2]. - The first two batches of funds released in January and April totaled 162 billion RMB, representing 54% of the annual budget, and have driven consumption of 1.1 trillion RMB, approximately 7 to 8 times the amount of subsidies issued [2][5]. - The upcoming funds are projected to stimulate retail sales exceeding 500 billion RMB in the third quarter of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity - The liquidity tightening observed recently is primarily attributed to a significant issuance of government bonds and typical quarter-end funding pressures, rather than the subsidy program [1][7]. - The net issuance of government bonds in May and June reached approximately 2.9 trillion RMB, which is substantial compared to the 162 billion RMB in subsidies issued [7]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to deploy a series of targeted policy tools, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, to replenish liquidity and guide interbank repurchase rates back to target levels [7].

Employment Data Insights - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, an increase of 3,000 from May, marking the second-highest monthly gain of the year[3] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, down from a three-month plateau[3] - The average hourly wage growth slowed by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a lack of strong upward pressure on wages[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, the lowest level in 2023, reflecting a continued decrease in labor supply[3] - Government employment surged by 73,000 in June, the highest increase in 15 months, while private sector job growth showed signs of cooling[3] - Job additions in the education and healthcare sectors were 51,000 and 20,000, respectively, both lower than the previous month[3] Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The necessity for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has significantly decreased due to strong employment data[3] - Future inflation levels will be influenced by fiscal stimulus effects and tariff directions, potentially leading to a steeper inflation trajectory[3] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" aims to stabilize consumer demand and enhance domestic manufacturing, which could tighten the labor market[3] Risks and Considerations - The potential for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts remains, as the labor market shows mixed signals[4] - The dollar index is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of the year, influenced by the evolving economic landscape[3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing significant turmoil, characterized by a sharp decline in stock indices, rising bond yields, and a weakening dollar, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury demand and fiscal policy uncertainties [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones index fell nearly 500 points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 4.5%, and the dollar index dropped below 100 [1]. - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, surged by 15%, indicating heightened investor anxiety [1]. - Gold prices soared to $3,315 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the market chaos [1]. Group 2: Treasury Auction and Demand - A recent auction of 20-year Treasury bonds saw a final yield of 5.047%, which is 24 basis points higher than the previous auction in April [1]. - This auction result highlighted a significant drop in demand for U.S. Treasuries, forcing the Treasury Department to offer higher yields to attract buyers [1][3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a challenging situation, having maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May 7 meeting [3][5]. - Powell emphasized the unpredictability of policy decisions, particularly in light of tariff-related uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration [3][5]. - The Fed's ability to lower interest rates may be constrained by rising inflation pressures and ongoing labor market strength, with wage growth reaching an annual rate of 3.9% [5][7]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts - The Trump administration is pushing for lower interest rates, with Treasury Secretary expressing a goal to reduce rates to a ten-year low [5]. - A new tax reform bill passed by the House Budget Committee is expected to reduce household tax burdens by approximately $140 billion annually, equivalent to 0.5% of GDP [5][8]. - Concerns about the lack of fiscal restraint have been voiced by Fed officials, indicating that higher tariffs could limit the Fed's ability to act on interest rates [7][10]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 index rebounded by 19.5% from its April lows, but underlying concerns about rising federal spending and long-term bond yields persist [8]. - A stark contrast between tariff revenue and soaring national debt has led to increased selling pressure in the bond market [8][10]. - The upcoming debt ceiling deadline in August and potential fiscal shortfalls from tax cuts may further complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10].

Core Viewpoint - The KOSPI index in South Korea has returned to the 3000-point mark for the first time since early 2022, driven by expectations of increased government fiscal stimulus and strong performance from blue-chip stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 20, the KOSPI index rose by 33.16 points, or 1.11%, reaching 3,010.90 points, with a weekly increase of 4.02% and a year-to-date gain of 25.2% [1]. - Over the past 30 trading days, the KOSPI index has rebounded by more than 16%, outperforming major Asian markets including Japan and India [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The liquidity in the South Korean market remains positive, with the Korean won stabilizing, which has enhanced foreign investors' risk appetite [2]. - On the day of reporting, foreign investors net purchased KOSPI stocks worth 811 billion KRW, indicating a renewed interest in Korean assets [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Stimulus - The South Korean government has approved an additional budget plan totaling 14.9 trillion KRW (approximately 786 billion RMB), aimed at supporting the economy amid weakening growth [3]. - The budget includes various counter-cyclical measures such as cash subsidies for residents and financial restructuring support for struggling SMEs and builders [3]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The South Korean economy is facing challenges, with actual GDP growth hovering around zero for four consecutive quarters, and construction investment remaining sluggish [3]. - The government plans to finance the budget through the issuance of 19.8 trillion KRW in new debt, while maintaining that the fiscal fundamentals remain sound [3]. Group 5: Market Projections - Analysts believe that there is still room for further fiscal expansion and monetary easing, which could support the KOSPI in the future [4]. - The current valuation of Korean stocks is considered low, with about 70% of KOSPI constituents having a price-to-book ratio below 1, indicating significant revaluation potential [5].

Group 1 - The financial markets have seen the worst of the tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, and mid-cap stocks are becoming attractive investment options as the outlook improves [1] - Fidelity's holdings in mid-cap stocks in Japan, Germany, and China account for approximately 11% of their growth and income funds, indicating high confidence in these trades [1] - The MSCI Japan mid-cap index has risen over 4% since April 2, while the German DAX mid-cap index has increased nearly 6%, and similar indices in China have seen a rise of about 0.5% during the same period [1] Group 2 - The fund management company has held some Chinese and Japanese stocks since the second half of last year and bought German mid-cap stocks shortly after the government announced a historic spending plan in March [2] - The German stock market is expected to rise due to the government's shift towards increased fiscal spending and reliance on domestic demand [3] - Japan is experiencing a significant transformation with "benign inflation" sweeping the economy, which may benefit mid-sized companies from domestic consumption growth [3] - Fidelity is optimistic about Chinese companies as further fiscal stimulus measures may be introduced, and the risk of losses is limited due to government-backed investors supporting stock prices [3]

Macro Commentary - The economic recovery in China remains unbalanced, with May data showing significant retail sales growth supported by the old-for-new policy, while real estate sales have declined further and industrial output growth has generally slowed [2] - GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.4% in Q1 2025 to 4.9% in Q2 and 4.7% in the second half of the year, potentially facing headwinds from weakening exports and diminishing effects of the old-for-new policy [2] - If a preliminary trade agreement is reached between China and the US, China may focus on economic rebalancing, increasing fiscal expansion and consumer stimulation, and promoting capacity reduction in manufacturing [2] Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,061, up 0.70% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.94% to 6,033 [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.15% year-to-date, reflecting a strong performance in the technology sector [2] - The performance of various sectors in the Hong Kong market was mixed, with financials and industrials leading gains, while real estate and healthcare sectors faced declines [4] Sector Analysis - The automotive sector is highlighted with companies like Geely Automobile and Xpeng Motors rated as "Buy," with target prices indicating potential upside of 46% and 50% respectively [6] - The equipment manufacturing sector also shows promise, with companies like Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry rated as "Buy," suggesting potential price increases of 19% and 24% respectively [6] - In the consumer sector, Luckin Coffee and PepsiCo are rated as "Buy," with expected price increases of 15% and 61% respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6] Credit and Economic Support - China's credit situation remains weak, driven by government financing, while private sector credit demand is still sluggish [5] - The social financing scale growth rate has rebounded due to accelerated government bond issuance, but household confidence is affected by tariff shocks, impacting housing and consumption [5] - More policy support is needed to revitalize private economic recovery, with expectations of a further 10 basis point reduction in LPR by the second half of 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoints - The current market lacks direction, but volatility in Q3 presents opportunities for allocation [1] - U.S. assets are not pessimistic, with potential for outperformance; U.S. stocks may provide buying opportunities upon correction [1][6] - The Chinese market focuses more on structural opportunities, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares [2][12] U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. credit cycle may restart, but Q3 is expected to remain chaotic, providing buying opportunities during volatility [6][9] - Tax cuts are expected to support consumer spending and stimulate corporate investment, with a projected deficit rate reduction in FY2025 [8][9] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice to 3.75-4%, supporting real estate and traditional investments [7][9] Chinese Market Insights - The Chinese credit cycle is still in a contraction phase, with high costs suppressing private sector leverage [10][11] - Structural market conditions lead to "asset scarcity," with investors seeking stable returns or growth-oriented assets [11][12] - The focus on Hong Kong stocks reflects a preference for quality assets amid limited growth expectations in the broader market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung prioritizes economic revitalization, focusing on high-tech industries like AI and semiconductors to enhance competitiveness and create jobs [1][4]. Economic Policy and Market Response - Lee Jae-myung's administration aims to address multiple economic challenges, including regional development disparities and job creation [1][4]. - Following Lee's inauguration, the KOSPI index rose over 4%, rebounding more than 20% from April lows, nearing a bull market [1][8]. - The South Korean won appreciated by 1.50% against the US dollar, reaching a recent high of 1351.80 [1]. Political Stability and Governance - The end of political vacuum is expected to improve the political risk index in South Korea, with a current score of 18.85, down from over 20 [4][8]. - Lee's government is anticipated to have a stable political environment until at least the 2028 National Assembly elections, enhancing policy implementation capabilities [1][4]. Trade Relations and Tariff Negotiations - The new government is prioritizing tariff negotiations with the US, with a focus on reaching a comprehensive agreement by July 8 [5][6]. - The outcome of these negotiations is critical, as South Korea's exports to the US in sectors like automobiles and steel face significant tariffs [5][6]. Economic Growth Forecasts - Despite a 0.2% contraction in Q1 2025, market expectations for South Korea's economic growth are improving, with forecasts for real GDP growth adjusted upwards by major financial institutions [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 0.7% to 1.1%, while Morgan Stanley adjusted its projections for 2025 and 2026 to 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively [9][10]. Investment Sentiment - Lee's commitment to boosting the stock market, with aspirations for the KOSPI index to reach 5000 points, has attracted renewed interest from global asset management firms [10].

随着李在明的上台以及新一轮预算案出台的前景，海外投行已纷纷上调韩国今年的经济增长预期。 据新华社援引韩国总统府消息，韩国总统李在明6月6日与美国总统特朗普通话，谈及韩美关系、经贸磋 商等话题。这是李在明就任韩国总统后首次与特朗普通话。在约20分钟的通话中，特朗普祝贺李在明当 选韩国总统，同时邀请他访美。 4日正式宣誓就职后，李在明已下达"一号行政令"，要求组建"紧急经济检查工作组"，着手提振韩国经 济。李在明强调，韩国目前正面临民生、经济等多重困境，韩国新一届政府将大力发展人工智能、半导 体等高科技产业、持续加大投入，提升韩国企业竞争力，积极创造就业机会并将努力消除地域发展不均 衡等问题。 惠誉评级亚太区主权评级董事杰瑞米·祖克（Jeremy Zook）告诉第一财经，李在明成为韩国新一届总 统，会减少韩国国内的政治波动并提高政府在短期内政策实施的能力。"此次总统选举的结果意味着， 结束了此前总统和立法机构隶属于不同政党的局面。至少在2028年国民议会选举之前，韩国政坛将维持 现状。" 李在明的上任也让韩国资本市场吃了定心丸。自4日以来，韩国基准股指KOSPI上涨超4%，较4月低点 反弹超20%逼近牛市，一度触 ...