Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for Asian investors is cautious due to economic uncertainty and fluctuating market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is unclear, with increasing concerns about its impact on the market [1] - Discrepancies among Federal Open Market Committee members highlight the uncertainty in economic forecasts, with some advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others oppose any cuts [1] - Fed Chair Powell warned that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, contributing to market anxiety [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. equities have rebounded nearly 40% from their "liberation day" lows but have recently become more volatile [1] - Concerns are growing over high valuations, skepticism regarding AI spending, and issues related to AI infrastructure debt financing [1] - Factors such as a recent government shutdown, weakening private sector employment data, declining consumer confidence, and unclear Fed policy are deepening market worries [1] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Investment Strategy - Corporate earnings remain strong, and M&A activity is on the rise, supported by fiscal and monetary policy [2] - AI spending is identified as a key driver of economic growth, corporate earnings, and market performance, offsetting weaknesses in real estate, manufacturing, and the job market [2] - The company maintains a neutral stance on risk assets while closely monitoring economic sector disparities [2] Group 4: Stock Market Preferences - The company holds a neutral position on U.S. equities across market capitalizations, noting that while large caps may benefit from AI optimism, small caps present attractive valuations and could benefit from lower interest rates and increased M&A/IPO activity [2] - A higher allocation to Chinese stocks is maintained, with technology expected to be a key growth driver for China [2] - The company is underweight on U.S. long-term Treasuries due to potential upward pressure on yields from U.S. government financing needs [2]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：020- 88818018 邮箱：chenshangyu@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 11 月 21 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. For example, stock index futures will likely fluctuate and consolidate; gold and silver futures will likely show a strong - side fluctuation; lithium carbonate futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias; crude oil and fuel oil futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias [1][2][3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On November 19, 2025, IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 had different intraday performances. It is expected that on November 20, they will likely fluctuate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided. Also, it is expected that in November 2025, these contracts will likely have a wide - range fluctuation [12][13][14][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 19, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts declined. It is expected that on November 20, the T2512 and TL2512 contracts will likely have a wide - range fluctuation, with corresponding support and resistance levels [35][36][38][40][41]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 19, gold and silver futures new main contracts showed a strong - side upward trend. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts will likely have a strong - side wide - range fluctuation. On November 20, the AU2602 and AG2602 contracts will likely show a strong - side fluctuation and attack resistance levels [44][48]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On November 19, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures main contracts had different trends. Different trends are expected for November 20 and November 2025, such as copper futures will likely show a strong - side fluctuation on November 20 [52][59]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: On November 19, crude oil and fuel oil futures main contracts had certain price movements. It is expected that on November 20, they will likely fluctuate with a downward bias. Other energy and chemical futures like PTA and PVC also have corresponding predicted trends [99][105][108][110]. - **Building Materials and Steel Futures**: On November 19, steel - related futures such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore had different trends. It is expected that on November 20, they will likely fluctuate with a downward bias, and different trends are predicted for November 2025 [77][80][82]. Macro News and Trading Tips - Domestic and international macro - events include government officials' research, international relations, and central bank policies. For example, the Fed's policy meeting minutes show a divergence among decision - makers on interest rate cuts [7][8]. - In the commodity futures market, on November 19, international precious metal futures generally rose, while oil futures declined. Base metals in London mostly rose [9][10][11]. Stock Market Information - On November 19, the A - share market had mixed performances, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising slightly, and the Hong Kong stock market and US stock market also had different trends. Some foreign institutions are optimistic about the long - term allocation value of the Chinese stock market, and there is a new case of M&A in the A - share brokerage industry [14][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed policymakers were seriously divided on whether to cut interest rates in December at the end - of - last - month monetary policy meeting. The number of those who thought no more rate cuts were needed this year exceeded those in favor of rate cuts, and some centrists would depend on data. Almost all agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet (shrinking the balance sheet) [2] - The BLS will not release the October non - farm payroll report but include relevant employment data in the November report, which will be released on December 16, more than a week later than originally planned and after the Fed's last meeting this year [2] - In the raw material segment, the rainy season is approaching in the Philippines and the nickel ore grade is declining, leading to tight raw material inventories of domestic ferronickel plants. However, the ferronickel production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the ferronickel price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, the production schedule of stainless - steel plants is expected to increase, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, the demand peak season shows weak characteristics, with low market purchasing willingness, and general overall inquiry and transaction performance. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase trend [2] - Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong, and it is at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,285 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,970 lots, an increase of 2,685 lots; the main - contract position volume is 192,398 lots, an increase of 8,566 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 65,340 tons, a decrease of 2,970 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 560 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 895 yuan/nickel point, down 5 yuan [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 591,200 tons, an increase of 20,400 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, a decrease of 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]

FICC日报 | 2025-11-20 股指维持箱体运行 市场分析 联储内部分歧大。对外方面，中国向日方通报暂停进口日本水产品。外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上强调，当 前形势下，即使日本水产品向中国出口也不会有市场。国内方面，中指研究院表示，今年前10月，重点城市二手 住宅累计成交量普遍保持小幅增长态势，10月市场活跃度有所下降。预计11月二手住宅成交量环比将有所修复， 但去年高基数下同比仍面临一定压力，短期价格或延续调整态势。海外方面，美联储公布10月政策会议纪要，决 策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员认为，在2025年剩余时间内维持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。不过， 也有若干位官员指出，若经济表现与预期一致，12月再次降息"很可能是合适的"。 支持降息的一方并未在人数上 占绝对优势，对于缩减资产负债表的量化紧缩行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。 股指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡，沪指涨0.18%收于3946.74点，创业板指涨0.25%。行业方面，板块指数 跌多涨少，有色金属、石油石化、国防军工行业涨幅居前，房地产、传媒、建筑材料、商贸零售行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额回落至1.7万亿元。海外 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector, with most sectors expected to experience fluctuating trends in the short - term [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices showed mixed trends with reduced trading volume. The pro - cyclical sectors supported the market, while TMT sectors declined. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spreads fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and consider bearish option bull spreads in case of a significant decline [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly rose. The bond market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term, and a range - bound operation strategy is recommended [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The Fed's October meeting minutes dampened the expectation of a December interest - rate cut, and the risk of Japanese government bond sales affected the precious metals market. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, market volatility may increase. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a double - selling strategy for gold out - of - the - money options [7][9] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined. The futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and copper prices are fluctuating. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the range of 85500 - 87500 [13][15][17] - **Alumina**: The alumina market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of high - cost enterprises [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are adjusting downward after a previous rise. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up changes and inventory reduction [20][22] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market follows the adjustment of aluminum prices. The cost is strongly supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The short - term price is expected to be relatively strong [23][24] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is expected to decrease, and the spot trading has improved. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate, and the export of zinc may boost the domestic price [25][27][28] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the guidance of NVIDIA's quarterly report exceeded expectations, so the tin price is running strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [28][29][32] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is under macro - pressure, and the fundamental improvement is insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [32][33][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has weak policy and macro - drive, and the supply - demand structure has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37][38] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is driven by strong capital sentiment, and the price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there may be high - volatility intraday market conditions later [39][41][42] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to pay attention to the spot price support [43][44] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market has a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices or use hedging strategies [44][47] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market has a low demand expectation, and the difference between hot - rolled and rebar spreads is expanding. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is not recommended to go long [47][48][50] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be in a high - level fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market is showing a weak decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand for restocking is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][60] - **Coke**: The coke market continues to decline. The fourth - round price increase has been fully implemented, but the supply and demand are under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [61][66][67] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the cost side lacks substantial benefits. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to pay attention to the dynamics of state - reserved soybeans [68][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market conditions, offering a multi - faceted view of the current economic and financial landscape [1][2][14][31]. Summary by Directory Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew at a 4.8% year - on - year rate, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% last year [1]. - In October 2025, the month - on - month increase in social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant drop from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412 billion yuan in the same period last year. New RMB loans from financial institutions were 220 billion yuan, down from 1290 billion yuan in the previous month and 500 billion yuan last year [1]. - CPI in October 2025 increased by 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month but down from 0.3% last year; PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous month and - 2.9% last year [1]. - In October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was - 1.7%, down from - 0.5% in the previous period and 3.4% last year; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.28%, down from 4.5% in the previous period but up from 3.5% last year [1]. - In October 2025, exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, a significant drop from 8.3% in the previous month and 12.64% last year; imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year, a decline from 7.4% in the previous month but an improvement from - 2.38% last year [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - China has notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports due to Japan's failure to provide promised technical materials and the Japanese Prime Minister's wrong remarks on the Taiwan issue [2]. - Since 2024, sulfur prices have been rising, reaching a peak in November 2025. On November 14, 2025, the CIF price of 99.5% sulfur in East China was 3860 yuan/ton, up 43% month - on - month and 166% year - on - year [2]. - On November 19, 2025, 42 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis. Among them, Shanghai nickel, Zhengzhou cotton, and cast aluminum alloy had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, Shanghai tin, and apples had the smallest [3]. - Russia will launch grain trading on the exchange on December 20, 2025. The Fed's decision - makers were divided on the interest rate cut in October 2025, with some advocating maintaining the rate and others suggesting a cut in December if the economy performs as expected [3]. Metals - In October 2025, the value - added of the non - ferrous metal industry above designated size increased by 4.0% year - on - year. From January to October, it increased by 7.4% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the first three quarters but 1.3 percentage points higher than the overall industrial value - added [5]. - On November 18, 2025, copper, zinc, and tin inventories on the London Metal Exchange reached multi - month highs, with significant increases; nickel, aluminum, and lead inventories decreased [6]. - The Chilean Copper Commission raised its copper price expectations for 2025 to $4.45 per pound and for 2026 to $4.55 per pound, the highest in its history [6]. - As of the week ending September 30, 2025, COMEX gold and silver speculators reduced their net long positions [7]. - The platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 22 tons in 2025, with total supply down 2% year - on - year to 222 tons and total demand at 243 tons, a decrease of 13 tons [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - US President Trump proposed to simplify the approval process for new energy and mining projects [8]. - In October 2025, Germany's crude steel production decreased by 3% year - on - year to 3.126 million metric tons [9]. - In October 2025, Brazil's steel sales decreased by 6.5% year - on - year to 1.814 million tons [9]. Energy and Chemicals - China's first high - pressure natural gas long - distance pipeline residual pressure power generation project in Haimen Station was put into operation [10]. - US energy data shows changes in various oil inventories and demand in the week, including an increase in distillate and gasoline inventories, and changes in import and export volumes [10]. - As of the week ending September 30, 2025, natural gas speculators in four major markets increased their net long positions [11]. - In September 2025, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 53,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 6.46 million barrels per day, and its crude oil inventory increased by 6.729 million barrels [11]. - Russia's 2025 oil production forecast remains at 510 million tons, and it will adhere to the OPEC+ agreement [11]. Agricultural Products - China's National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration conducted research on grain purchase, sales, and storage management, emphasizing the importance of ensuring national food security [13]. - In 2025, Ukraine's wheat harvest was 23 million tons, up from 22.6 million tons in 2024 [13]. - Brazil's soybean exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 4.26 million tons [13]. - Chile launched the 2025 - 2026 cherry sea - freight export season, shipping cherries to China [13]. Financial News Open Market - On November 19, 2025, the central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 115 billion yuan [14]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank will conduct a total of 200 billion yuan of central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits on November 24, 2025 [14]. Key News - The market expects the November 2025 LPR to remain unchanged [16]. - The Fed's decision - makers were divided on the interest rate cut in October 2025, and most agreed to stop the QT action [16]. - China has suspended the import of Japanese aquatic products [16]. - The Netherlands suspended the administrative order against Nexperia, but the key issue remains unresolved [17]. - Chinese Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized the digital and intelligent transformation of the manufacturing industry [17]. - The second - hand housing market in key cities is expected to see a marginal improvement in November 2025 but still faces pressure compared to last year [17]. - China successfully issued 4 billion euros of sovereign bonds in Luxembourg [18]. - Hong Kong will optimize the "Swap Connect" and explore the south - bound "Swap Connect" [18]. - Hong Kong and Shenzhen jointly released an action plan to build a global fintech center [18]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the rules for index funds [19]. - Many local governments have issued special bonds to invest in government investment funds this year [19]. - Trump criticized the Fed and Powell [19]. - Japan is experiencing a severe sell - off in government bonds [20]. - South Korea's external financial assets reached a record high in Q3 2025 [20]. - There are major bond - related events such as mergers, debt defaults, and changes in control [21]. - Moody's issued and adjusted credit ratings for some companies [21]. Bond Market - The Chinese bond market weakened, with most interest - rate bond yields rising and treasury bond futures falling. The money market tightened slightly [22]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, most Vanke bonds declined, while some other bonds rose or fell [23]. - The convertible bond index rose, and some convertible bonds had significant gains or losses [23]. - On November 19, 2025, most money market interest rates declined [24]. - The winning bid yields of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were announced [25]. - European and US bond yields mostly rose [25][26]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose slightly on November 19, 2025, while the central parity rate was adjusted down [27]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [27]. Research Report - CITIC Securities believes that the long - term annualized return of convertible bond - related indices has outperformed the underlying stock indices, and future returns may focus more on the underlying stock performance and the downward - revision clause [28]. - CITIC Securities also believes that the credit market has shown differentiation from the benchmark interest rate since Q3 2025, and there is still room for the credit bond term spread to decline [28]. Stock Market - A - shares fluctuated with reduced trading volume on November 19, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index was flat, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.25%. Bank stocks and some sectors such as military and aquatic products rose, while some sectors such as culture and media and real estate declined [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.38% on November 19, 2025. Some sectors such as non - ferrous metals and military rose, while tech and new - energy vehicle stocks declined. Southbound funds had a net inflow of HK$6.591 billion [31]. - The CSRC optimized the ETF registration and listing review process [31]. - Many foreign institutions are bullish on the long - term investment value of the Chinese stock market, and they have increased their research and investment in A - shares [32]. Today's Reminder - On November 20, 2025, 220 bonds will be listed, 178 bonds will be issued, 130 bonds will be paid for, and 175 bonds will pay principal and interest [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market shows complex trends with different metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended based on these situations [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market strengthened on Wednesday, but London gold failed to hold above $4100. Fed's internal divergence on December rate - cut, employment report changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are key factors. Suggest buying at support levels [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness is gradually easing. Recommend gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price stabilized yesterday. With improved risk appetite and low rate - cut expectations, and considering the supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum price may maintain oscillatory adjustment after a decline, with improved spot trading but continued reduction of long positions in the main contract [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [2]. - **Zinc**: Price declined yesterday. Due to supply shortages and demand - side factors, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rebounded significantly. With planned production cuts and cost support, long positions can gradually take profits, and short positions should be entered with caution [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Current demand is strong, but long - term demand may decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing highs, or consider selling put options [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose. Near - month contracts are strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs due to factors like slow progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Price trended strongly. With improved risk appetite and supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Supply - demand is weak, and there is significant structural differentiation. Hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605, and the reference range for RB01 is 3030 - 3080 [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in iron ore 2605, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in coking coal 2605, and the reference range for JM01 is 1110 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans enter an oscillatory phase, and the domestic market is temporarily weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: As the supply in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline oscillatory. Hold short positions [7]. - **Oils and Fats**: Enter an oscillatory and slightly strong phase. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: International sugar price rebounds, and the domestic market will follow the international trend to decline. Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13300 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory due to decreased supply pressure and weakening demand [7]. - **Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and the futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [8]. - **Apples**: Wait and see due to low inventory and high - quality apple price increases [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillatory, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: Supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short or conduct spread trading [8]. - **PTA**: Take profits on long positions in PX, and short the processing margin of PTA in the long - term [8][9]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to conduct spread trading [9]. - **PP**: Short - term oscillatory and weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand accumulates inventory, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally bearish, but with high geopolitical uncertainty, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [9][10]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillatory, with the upside limited by the import window [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to export news and supply - demand situation [10].

Group 1: Financial Technology Collaboration - Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau and Shenzhen's Local Financial Supervision Bureau jointly released an action plan for building a global financial technology center from 2025 to 2027, focusing on six key areas for collaboration to create a competitive fintech ecosystem [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Vice President revealed that the "Swap Connect" will expand the list of dealers and optimize liquidity management tools, while the Securities and Futures Commission's Executive Director indicated that the Southbound "Swap Connect" is in the discussion stage to better serve international investor needs [1] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for prioritizing adjustments to Wall Street's regulatory framework to ease the burden on financial institutions, paving the way for future asset balance sheet reductions, and expressed hope to end quantitative tightening in October [2] - The Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes showed significant divisions among decision-makers regarding interest rate cuts, but there was a general consensus to pause rate hikes for the year, with nearly all members agreeing to immediately end quantitative tightening [1][2] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit in August plummeted by 24% to $59.6 billion, with the goods deficit shrinking to $83.7 billion, the smallest since the end of 2023, driven by a 5.1% decline in imports and a slight rebound in exports [2] - Japan's government plans to introduce an economic stimulus package exceeding 20 trillion yen, along with a supplementary budget of about 17 trillion yen, to address slowing growth and inflation pressures [2] Group 4: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.1% to 46,138.77 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.38% to 6,642.16 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.59% to 22,564.23 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.29% to $4,078.30 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.08% to $51.07 per ounce [4] - U.S. crude oil futures fell by 2.08% to $59.41 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.88% to $63.67 per barrel [5]

一些（Several）与会者认为可能适合12月降息，许多（Many）人认为今年内可能适合维持利率不变；多人认为今年提高关税对通胀影响有限，多数人 认为，在通胀高企且就业市场降温背景下，降息或加剧通胀风险、或被误解为降通胀承诺不够；一些人关注金融资产估值过高，担心若市场突然重新评估 AI前景，股价无序下跌；几乎一致支持12月结束缩表，多人支持提高短债持仓占比。"新美联储通讯社"：可能占微弱多数的决策者对12月降息感到不 安。 大多数（Most）与会者认为，FOMC转向更为中立的政策立场，有助于避免劳动力市场状况可能大幅恶化。"其中 许多（Many）与会者 还 认为 ，鉴于越来越多 的证据表明， 今年提高关税对整体通胀的影响可能有限 ，委员会应适当放松政策立场，应对就业下行风险。" 会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次货币政策会议上，美联储决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，支持降息的一方并未在人数上占绝对优势，对于缩减 资产负债表（缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时， ...