Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term government bonds to replenish cash reserves since the debt ceiling was raised, leading to concerns about potential liquidity constraints in the financing market [1] - Bank reserves remain ample at around $3.33 trillion, providing necessary buffers for the financing market, but this situation may change in late September as the Treasury's total account is expected to increase from about $490 billion to $860 billion [1] - The decrease in available reserves is projected to bring the bank reserve balance below $3 trillion for the first time since the pandemic, which may require increased attention to daily changes in overnight market conditions [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is reportedly a candidate for the next Fed Chair, suggesting that the Fed could reduce bank reserves to about $2.7 trillion, which is significant for assessing the impact on overnight funding markets [2] - The usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool has been declining, indicating a reduction in excess liquidity, with estimates suggesting that RRP usage could drop to zero by the end of August [2] - The increase in Treasury cash balances is expected to lead to a decrease in bank reserves, raising the likelihood of funding stress in the market [2]

Group 1 - The Bank of England warns that its long-term bond sales may exacerbate tensions in the UK government bond market, suggesting a potential need to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - An analysis report from Bank of England officials indicates that selling bonds could have a "greater impact" on the liquidity of the UK government bond market amid declining demand for long-term assets [1] - The report highlights that global economic policy uncertainty, significant issuance of government bonds, and structural changes in the domestic bond market have increased bond term premiums, raising risks that quantitative tightening may have a larger impact on market operations than previously thought [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently at 1.3459, with a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous close of 1.3451 [1] - If the GBP/USD trades below 1.3450, it may pave the way for a potential pullback, with the next bearish focus on the 1.3400 level and the 20-day simple moving average at 1.3389 [1]

Group 1 - The White House Economic Council Chairman Miran has been nominated by Trump to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor, with a term lasting until January next year [1][4] - Trump's advisors believe that Federal Reserve Governor Waller is the most suitable candidate to succeed Powell as Chairman [1][4] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index close lower, primarily due to a significant drop in Eli Lilly's stock price, while the Nasdaq reached a record closing high [2] - U.S. Treasury yields experienced slight increases amid volatile trading, with the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.7279% and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.2500% [3] - Oil prices have declined for six consecutive days, influenced by expectations of a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict following news of a meeting between Putin and Trump [2][3] Group 3 - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits has risen to the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [4] - U.S. productivity rebounded in Q2, which may help mitigate wage-related inflation pressures [4] - The Atlanta Fed President anticipates a potential interest rate cut within the year, while tariffs continue to impact inflation [4] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that there may be future tariffs on Russian oil imports to China [7] - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates to a two-year low amid significant disagreements among committee members [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the fifth rate cut in the current cycle, amidst a divided policy meeting [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut rates was reached after a split vote of 5 to 4, the first time since the Bank gained monetary policy decision-making authority in 1998 [3]. - Four members, including Governor Bailey, supported the 25 basis point cut, while one member initially favored a 50 basis point cut but ultimately agreed to the smaller reduction due to the voting deadlock [3]. - Four members, including the Deputy Governor and Chief Economist, opposed the rate cut, indicating a significant division within the committee [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The decision reflects a conflict between rising inflation and a weak labor market, raising concerns about potential "stagflation" in the UK [6]. - The Bank of England noted an increase in inflation risks since May, particularly due to rising food prices, with inflation expected to reach 4% in September, surpassing the previous peak forecast of 3.7% [6]. - Despite a baseline expectation for inflation to decline, the committee warned that temporary inflation increases could exert upward pressure on wages and pricing [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Bank indicated that the UK's potential GDP growth remains subdued, with ongoing domestic and geopolitical risks to economic activity [6]. - There is a consensus among committee members that consumer spending faces downward risks, while savings rates may increase as households adopt more precautionary saving behaviors [6]. - Future decisions on reducing policy tightening will depend on whether deflationary pressures continue to ease [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the British pound rose against the US dollar, and UK government bond yields experienced a slight increase [7]. - The Bank also warned of signs of pressure in the long-term bond market ahead of the annual decision on quantitative tightening in September, suggesting a potential slowdown in the pace of long-term bond sales [9].

北京时间周四晚间，英国央行如期在一场意见严重分裂的政策会议后降息25个基点。这也是英国央行本轮降息周期的第5次降息，维持了每个季度降一次息 的谨慎节奏。 在这两派人背后，是通胀上升与就业市场疲软之间的矛盾。这种情况也引发了市场对英国可能进入"滞胀"的担忧。从周四开始，英国也要面对美国的所 谓"对等关税"生效，适用税率为10%。 英国央行在同步刊出的会议纪要中表示，自五月以来通胀上行风险"略有上升"，特别是食品价格上涨。官员们目前预期，通胀将会在今年9月达到4%，超越 此前3.7%的预测峰值。虽然基线预测是通胀后续将回落，但委员会也警告称，暂时性通胀上升可能对工资和价格制定过程施加额外的上行压力。 值得一提的是，今天也是英国央行自1998年获得货币政策决策权以来，首次需要进行两轮投票才勉强达成5比4结果的利率决议。 英国央行介绍称，在9人构成的货币政策委员会中，包括行长贝利在内的4名委员投票支持降息25个基点，另一名委员艾伦·泰勒原本倾向于降息50个基点， 但因为投票僵局最终支持更小幅度的降息。包括英国央行副行长隆巴德利、首席经济学家休·皮尔在内的4人则坚持不应该降息。 与之相对的是英国经济的低迷。英国央行表示 ...

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行周四将基准利率下调25个基点至4%，为两年多来的最低水平，委员们在 通胀率可能达到4%以及就业市场疲软之间进行权衡。英国央行货币政策委员会的五名委员投票支持降 息25个基点，四名委员支持维持利率不变。此前首轮投票曾出现三方分歧的情况，未能达成多数意见。 这是该委员会28年历史上首次需要两轮投票才能达成最终利率决议的情况。 利率决议公布后，英镑兑美元汇率上涨0.5%，至1.3428。英国国债价格下跌，导致两年期国债收益率上 升6个基点至3.88%，因为货币市场减少了对英国央行明年降息幅度的预期。 由于第一季度经济表现强劲，2025 年经济增长预测也小幅上调至1.25%，但英国央行官员们表示，基本 面"依然低迷"。 会议纪要显示，"未来减少政策限制的时机和步伐将取决于潜在的反通胀压力是否能够持续缓解。随着 利率下调，货币政策的限制性已经减弱。" 周四的降息标志着英国央行自一年前开始降息以来的第五次降息，同时也延续了每次降息25个基点的谨 慎节奏。 英国央行将利率降至两年低点 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利在一份书面声明中表示："这是一个经过深思熟虑的决定。利率仍处于下降趋 势，但未来任何降息 ...

北京时间周四19:00，英国央行将政策利率从4.25%降至4%，为本轮降息周期的第五次降息，符合市场预期。 英国央行表示，"随着利率下调，货币政策的限制性有所下降"，不再直接表示政策仍然是限制性的。英国央行重申，利率方面没有预先设定的路径。 停止降息进程对财政大臣里夫斯和首相斯塔默来说将是一个打击，他们一直在努力实现对选民的承诺，加快英国缓慢的经济增长。 "这是一个非常平衡的决定，"贝利在一份书面声明中说。"利率仍处于下降轨道上，但未来的任何降息都需要逐步和谨慎地进行。" 货币政策委员会表示，通胀上行风险"自5月以来略有走高"，并特别指出食品费用上涨。官员们现在预计9月份通胀率将达到4%，高于此前预测的3.7%的峰 值，该小组对第二轮影响"保持警惕"。 九位决策者中有四位因担心高通胀而寻求维持借贷成本不变。由于难以达成一致，英国货币政策委员会不得不在其历史上首次举行两次利率投票。 由于货币政策委员会在如何应对通货膨胀方面存在分歧，英国央行预测通货膨胀率很快将是其2%目标的两倍，而且最近失业情况恶化，行长贝利和四位同 事支持将利率从4.25%降至4%。 支持维持利率不变的四名成员包括负责货币政策的副行长伦巴德利 ...

英国央行将于北京时间19:00公布利率决议、会议纪要和货币政策报告，预计其将第五次下调关键利 率。英国央行行长贝利将在30分钟后召开货币政策新闻发布会。尽管通胀仍处于高位，但就业市场已出 现明显降温迹象，在此背景下，英国央行仍选择谨慎解除对经济的限制。 在某种程度上，英国央行面临的挑战与美联储相似。通胀上升主要源于政府对公用事业定价和税收的决 策。多数政策制定者预计，通胀将随经济增长乏力而回落，但担忧过快降息会延缓这一进程。 然而，部分政策制定者认为，消费者价格不太可能维持当前增速，反而担心若借贷成本居高不下，会导 致过多岗位流失，最终使通胀跌至央行2%目标以下。美联储政策制定者在如何应对更高关税问题上， 也存在类似分歧。 对于英国央行由9人组成的货币政策委员会（MPC）而言，平衡这些冲突风险的方式是每三个月将关键 利率下调25个基点——投资者预计周四这一模式将重演。对多数委员而言，这一节奏既能保持关键利率 的限制性，又能减轻对经济活动的抑制程度。 "货币政策委员会对劳动力市场和通胀风险均持谨慎态度，"摩根士丹利经济学家在给客户的报告中写 道，"数据仍杂乱无章，全球环境高度不确定。在这种情况下，我们认为未来的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，投资者们将在周四关注有关英国央行债券抛售前景的线索。目前市场有猜测称，该 央行将放缓减持英国国债的速度。预计英国央行将在周四公布货币政策决定的同时，发布有关其所 谓"量化紧缩"进程的评估报告。虽然英国央行不太可能明确指出在10月之后将削减资产负债表的规模， 但会透露官员们对于当前每年 1000 亿英镑抛售规模的看法。 债券策略师预计将出现放缓态势。英国央行 6 月份的一项调查结果显示，多数人预计债券减持规模将在 600 亿至 800 亿英镑之间。若实际削减规模超出预期，这将有助于支撑市场，尤其是对于那些近年来因 政治动荡和养老基金需求减少而遭受重创的长期债券而言。 市场参与者中有人呼吁英国央行减少长期债券的主动抛售量。此前的多次抛售导致英国 30 年期债券的 借贷成本在今年早些时候升至 1998 年以来的最高水平，这让英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯颇为头疼。其 中一次动荡时期导致英国央行推迟了长期债券的抛售计划。 今年，英国央行计划通过让 870 亿英镑到期债务自然结清以及进行 130 亿英镑的主动抛售来减少其债券 持有量——后者使其在全球央行中显得与众不同。官员们希望通过通过回购操作提供现金 ...

摩根大通发布研报，认为英国央行本周四将利率下调25个基点，至4.0%，与市场普遍预期一致。摩根 大通表示，尽管内部存在分歧，英国央行可能会坚持"逐步"降息的指引。 摩根大通表示，由于英国央行目前处境艰难，无法明确发出不再持续降息25个基点的信号，所以或许最 简单的方法就是继续沿用"逐步且谨慎"降息的指导方针。然而，这一指导方针似乎不再能反映目前英国 央行货币政策委员会成员们的实际观点。 自5月以来的投票结果显示，有三位成员支持加快降息步伐(丁格拉、泰勒和拉姆斯登)，而有两位认为 英国央行应该放缓降息速度(曼恩和皮尔)。这意味着货币政策委员会的九名成员中，大多数人希望采取 非渐进式的措施。鉴于政策指引应当真实反映委员会至少半数成员的观点，因此确实有必要做出改变。 一种解决办法是，货币政策委员会可以继续采用"渐进"这一表述，但对其内涵进行重新定义。货币政策 委员会可能会表示，尽管有必要进一步放宽政策，但"宽松的速度将取决于不断变化的风险平衡，包括 劳动力市场的动态以及通胀持续性的进展。" 由于今年货币政策委员会内部出现了诸多不同的观点，此次投票结果难以预测。摩根大通预计与上次会 议的情况类似，即有五名委员主张降息 ...