Market Performance - On February 13, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.05%, and Nasdaq down 0.22% [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones fell 1.23%, S&P 500 dropped 1.39%, and Nasdaq decreased by 2.1% [1] Sector Performance - Most large tech stocks declined, with Apple and Nvidia down over 2%, Facebook and Google down over 1%, while Tesla saw a slight increase of 0.09% [3] - Semiconductor stocks mostly rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 0.66%, and notable gains in Applied Materials (over 8%), ARM (over 2%), and Qualcomm (over 1%) [3] - Gold stocks performed strongly, with Coeur Mining up over 7%, Harmony Gold, Kinross Gold, and Pan American Silver up over 6%, and Barrick Gold up over 5% [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.10%, with Tencent Music up over 4%, Yum China up over 3%, and Hesai Technology and NetEase up over 2% [3] - Declines were seen in JinkoSolar (down nearly 3%), Canadian Solar, New Oriental, Alibaba (down over 2%), and Li Auto (down nearly 2%) [3] Commodity Prices - Precious metals saw a rebound, with spot gold rising 2.4% to surpass $5040 per ounce, and spot silver increasing by 2.8% to $77.3 per ounce [3] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.08% to $62.89 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.34% to $67.75 per barrel [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced a collective rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% to approach $69,000 per coin, and over 90,000 traders liquidated in the past 24 hours [4][5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, below the market expectation of 2.5%, marking a decrease from 2.7% in December 2025 [6] - The month-over-month CPI, seasonally adjusted, rose by 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%, indicating a significant cooling of inflation [6] - Following the CPI release, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut in June surged to 83% from 49.9% [6]

Market Movements - U.S. stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.37%, S&P 500 futures down 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.31% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.01%, France's CAC40 down 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.43% [2] Oil Market - WTI crude oil is down 0.78% at $62.35 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 0.55% at $67.15 per barrel [2] - OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil production increases starting in April, with negotiations continuing before the March 1 meeting [2] Economic Data - The U.S. January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-over-year increase slowing to 2.5%, down from 2.7% in December, marking the lowest level since May 2025 [4] - Both overall CPI and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, consistent with the previous month's increase [4] Software Sector - The software sector is experiencing significant sell-offs, but this presents a buying opportunity according to Byron Deeter from Bessemer Venture Partners, who notes that software stocks are in a state of severe overselling [5] - There is an anticipated divergence among software companies based on growth prospects and fundamentals, rather than a uniform market rebound [5] Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - JPMorgan suggests shorting two-year U.S. Treasuries, citing strong economic fundamentals that may hinder the Federal Reserve from making significant rate cuts [6] - The upcoming inflation report is expected to provide new insights into the Fed's future actions, with any signs of easing price pressures likely to boost demand for short-term bonds [6] Gold Market - ANZ Bank has raised its second-quarter gold price target to $5,800 per ounce, viewing the recent price pullback as a buying opportunity amid ongoing structural support [7] - Major Wall Street banks are showing a consensus bullish sentiment on precious metals, with Goldman Sachs targeting $5,400 and UBS and JPMorgan setting even higher targets of $6,200 and $6,300 respectively [7] Corporate Earnings - Applied Materials (AMAT) reported Q1 revenue of $7.01 billion, slightly down 2% year-over-year but above market expectations, with a positive outlook for Q2 revenue of approximately $7.65 billion [10][11] - Roku's Q4 revenue grew 16.1% year-over-year to $1.395 billion, exceeding expectations, with a positive outlook for the next quarter [10][11] - Airbnb's Q4 revenue reached $2.78 billion, up 12% year-over-year, also surpassing analyst expectations, with a positive growth forecast for 2026 [12] - Vale's Q4 revenue increased 9% to $11.06 billion, but the company reported a significant net loss due to asset impairments [13] - NatWest's Q4 pre-tax profit rose 30% to £1.94 billion, exceeding expectations, with plans to leverage AI for cost reduction and efficiency [14]

Group 1: Powell's Investigation - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin agreed to transfer the investigation of Fed Chairman Powell from the Justice Department to the Senate Banking Committee to break the deadlock regarding Kevin Walsh's nomination [1][2][3] - This move aims to persuade Republican Senator Thom Tillis to drop his opposition to Walsh's nomination, which he has linked to the ongoing investigation of Powell [3][4] - Mnuchin emphasized the urgency of advancing the hearing process to ensure a new chairman can be appointed quickly [6] Group 2: Fed's Rate Cut Outlook - The market's expectations for a Fed rate cut have diminished significantly following unexpectedly strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, with the probability of no rate hike in March rising from 80% to 92% [8] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding market expectations and alleviating concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [8] - Economic forecasts suggest that the U.S. GDP growth could reach 4%-5% this year, with inflation data being a critical factor for the Fed's decision-making [11]

美联储下调利率的同时，若其他渠道吸走储备，流动性依然可能收紧。例如，通过量化紧缩或美国财政部的相关操作，就会导致流动性趋紧。在无降息的情 况下，其他政策流入也可推动流动性走高。 比特币走势正日益紧密地追随市场流动性的波动，而非利率的小幅调整。 本文解释了为何市场预期中的降息近期未能推动比特币上涨，同时剖析了流动性收紧时，加密货币、股票甚至贵金属抛售同步的本质原因。 利率代表资金成本，而流动性体现市场内资金的总量与流向。市场有时混淆两者，但二者走势往往出现显著背离。 多年来，美国联邦储备系统的降息一直是比特币（BTC）交易员关注的关键宏观信号。较低利率通常意味着融资成本下降、风险偏好提升，并引发加密资产 回暖。然而，这一直观的降息与比特币走势挂钩的关系，近期已大为减弱。比特币目前的波动更取决于金融体系的实际流动性，而非借贷成本的预期或边际 变化。 你知道吗？比特币对流动性变化往往领先于传统市场，因此在宏观交易员中被视为"金丝雀型资产"，提前发出市场流动性趋紧而股市下跌的信号。 多项因素削弱了降息对比特币的影响： 比特币当前对流动性的反应大于对降息的反应。过去，降息曾推动加密货币市场回暖，但比特币最近的价格变动更 ...

沃什曾于2006至2011年担任美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，他经常对通胀表示担忧，并主张通过确保 通胀预期稳固来维护央行的公信力，尽管他当时也经常投票支持维持利率不变或降低利率。 然而，尽管被视为通胀鹰派，沃什近年来却主张降低利率，认为美联储应"摒弃对滞胀的预测"，并预计 人工智能将成为提升生产力、抑制通胀的"重要"力量，从而为降息创造空间。 美联储独立性面临挑战 分析人士指出，舒默和沃伦发出的联名信，旨在让美联储独立性问题保持在聚光灯下。自特朗普开启第 二任期以来，美联储的独立性一直面临着这位共和党籍总统施加的公开压力。 除针对鲍威尔的刑事调查外，特朗普近来的言论，已明确昭示其对下任美联储主席货币政策走向"鸽 派"的期待。 智通财经2月13日讯（编辑 潇湘）美国参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默与参议院银行委员会首席成员伊丽莎 白·沃伦周四致函美联储主席提名人凯文·沃什，要求其说明是否存在对美国总统特朗普的效忠誓言。 参议员在一封信函中写道，"特朗普总统曾宣称'任何与我意见相左者都绝不可能担任美联储主席'，并 哀叹任命对象可能存在'不忠诚'。我们试图了解，特朗普总统是否曾隐含或明确地要求您将'听命于 他'，作为任 ...

钛媒体App 2月12日消息，美联储官员施密德表示，人工智能与近期生产力提升之间的联系尚不明确； 进一步降息可能导致高通胀持续存在。（广角观察） ...

美东时间周三（2月11日），美国总统特朗普称赞了最新公布的1月非农数据，并借此重申他的观点，即美国的利率应当大幅降低。 美国劳工部当天公布的数据显示，美国1月份新增就业岗位13万个，远超市场预期的5.5万；1月失业率从4.4%下降至4.3%，创2025年8月 以来新低。 特朗普周三在自创社交媒体平台Truth Social上发文称："美利坚合众国在借贷（债券！）方面应当支付更低得多的成本。" "我们再次成为世界上最强大的国家，因此理应支付最低的利率，而且要远远低于其他国家，"他写道。 美联储去年秋季曾连续三次降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.5%—3.75%的区间。不过，美联储在上月的利率会议上暂停了降息步 伐。 尽管特朗普将强劲的1月非农数据和降息挂钩，但这份报告的出炉实际上打压了市场对美联储今年降息力度的预期。 数据公布后，交易员减少对美联储降息的押注，并完全定价美联储将在7月进行下一次降息，而非6月。 特朗普多次表示，美国利率应当处于全球最低水平之列，并敦促美联储将利率降至1%。在通胀率约为2%的背景下，这实际上意味着特朗普 希望实现负的实际利率。 美联储将2%设定为长期通胀率目标，并且倾向于以核 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, and the manufacturing sentiment is strong, providing support on the sentiment side. The copper ore supply remains tight, while the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, with relatively abundant short - term supply. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. [4] - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so there is still strong support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. [7] - Lead: The visible inventory of lead ore has a slight decline but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The waste battery inventory continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. The lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] - Zinc: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory slows down, and the zinc concentrate TC stops falling and stabilizes. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory begins to accumulate. The downstream enterprise operations are mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises rise rapidly. The domestic zinc industry performs weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment disturbances. Near the Spring Festival holiday, there is still a risk of abnormal movements in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] - Tin: After the secondary decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. [14] - Nickel: After the secondary decline of precious metals and risk assets, they stabilize, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. [16] - Lithium Carbonate: In January, the year - on - year growth rates of domestic power and energy - storage battery production and sales were 55.9% and 85.1% respectively, and the lithium demand expectation is strong. After the Spring Festival, the production schedule growth rate of the material side is considerable. At the same time, there are frequent disturbances on the supply side. Although the substantial impact is limited, it is easy to ignite market sentiment under the inventory decline trend. In the future, the game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. [19] - Alumina: There is a strike in a mine in the Boké region of Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there are more capacity overhauls recently, the overall output is still at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [22] - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents generally slows down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively ship, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with a weak willingness to actively restock. Steel mills will have collective production cuts in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. [25] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds. Although the demand is relatively average, under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price still has support. [28] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data was better than expected. Overnight, US stocks rose first and then fell, and copper prices rose. The LME copper 3M closed up 1.06% to $13,239 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,190 yuan per ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,000 to 192,100 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The cancelled warrant ratio increased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 13,000 to 179,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a discount of 50 yuan per ton to the futures, and the market trading remained dull. The Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 60 yuan per ton to the futures, and the holders of goods held firm on the basis price quotes, with dull trading. The Shanghai copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,110 yuan per ton, expanding compared with the previous period. [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME copper 3M is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars per ton. [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation between the US and Iran is still uncertain. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closed up 0.39% to $3,117 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased slightly to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 to 168,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased month - on - month, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rebound, and the spot trading remained dull. The East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a discount of 190 yuan per ton to the futures, and the spot trading volume gradually declined. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 to 486,000 tons, the cancelled warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,300 - 23,800 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME aluminum 3M is 3,090 - 3,160 US dollars per ton. [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.39% to 16,753 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 124,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME lead 3S rose 8 to $1,978 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan per ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan per ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan per ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 46,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 35 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 15,900 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 50.95 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.6 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 306.79 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 49,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with February 5. [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.57% to 24,634 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME zinc 3S rose 50 to $3,416.5 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 230,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,460 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 50 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 20 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 50 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 11,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 19.55 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 71.21 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 3,392.57 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 128,100 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons compared with February 5. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 11, tin prices fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 394,700 yuan per ton, up 3.32% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient. There were both constraints on the scrap side and high - price waiting - and - seeing by downstream, and the short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. On the demand side, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to restock before the festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan per ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars per ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 11, nickel prices rose significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,360 yuan per ton, up 4.51% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 50 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the cost side, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $61.42 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $25 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,047.5 yuan per nickel point, up 7.5 yuan per nickel point from the previous day. [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars per ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 139,123 yuan, up 1.99% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 135,500 - 143,600 yuan, with the average price up 2,750 yuan (+2.01%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 140,500 yuan, with the average price up 1.87% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,260 yuan, up 9.41% from the previous closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan per ton. [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 11, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.28% intraday to 2,845 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 457,800 lots, a decrease of 10,400 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 287 yuan per ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304 per ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 65 yuan per ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were reported at 262,700 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $61 per ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $58 per ton. [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan per ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,040 yuan per ton, up 2.18% (+300) on the day, with a unilateral position of 205,500 lots, a decrease of 5,669 lots from the previous trading day.

Core Viewpoint - The unexpectedly strong employment data for January does not imply that policymakers should pause further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Governor Milan suggests that planned supply-side reforms, such as reducing business regulations, will facilitate continued rate cuts [1] - Expectations of a slowdown in housing inflation are seen as a factor that could support further reductions in the benchmark interest rate [1] - Since joining the Federal Reserve Board in September, Milan has consistently opposed the majority view at policy meetings, advocating for larger rate cuts than other officials are willing to support [1]

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