今日必读🕊️高盛称市场低估12月降息可能🎏部分日本电影在华遭撤档💴中国广义财政支出大降获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter. https://t.co/YFcTjuKiBC ...

【资讯导读】 ·瑞士经济Q3收缩降息压力骤增 【市场资讯】 ·美国前总统特朗普提议向除富人外的所有公民发放2000美元"关税分红"，称资金来自今年关税收入。 财政部长贝森特回应称，该计划须经国会批准。此举被视为应对公众对高生活成本不满的政治举措。 ·白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，当前就业市场释放出复杂信号，暗示增长可能放缓。但他指出 实际工资持续上涨，认为美联储应坚持"以数据为本"的决策路径，灵活应对经济变化。 ·美联储副主席杰斐逊指出，当前就业市场下行风险上升，而通胀上行压力略有缓解。他强调，随着利 率趋近中性水平，政策制定者应更加审慎、逐步调整。与此同时，理事沃勒明确支持12月再次降息，理 由是劳动力市场持续疲软，且货币政策正对中低收入群体造成负担。 ·美联储理事沃勒重申，他将在12月会议上支持降息，因就业数据连续数月表现疲弱。他表示，近期即 将公布的9月就业报告不太可能改变其立场，并强调目前无需担忧通胀反弹，政策重心应放在支撑劳动 力市场。 ·美联储官员警示就业风险呼吁谨慎降息 ·韩国收紧散户海外杠杆ETF投资门槛 ·欧元区经济前景上调但赤字风险隐现 ·日本Q3 GDP意外萎缩出口受挫拖累经济 ·尽 ...

Market Performance - On November 17, US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.18% at 46,590.24 points, the S&P 500 down 0.92% at 6,672.41 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.84% at 22,708.07 points [2][10] - The Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index fell by 0.47%, with major tech stocks like Nvidia and Apple dropping nearly 2%, while Google rose over 3% [4][10] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 1.21%, with notable declines in Chinese stocks such as Arctech Solar down over 15% and XPeng Motors down over 10%. However, JinkoSolar rose over 13% and Kingsoft Cloud increased nearly 9% [7][8] Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson emphasized the need for caution in further interest rate cuts to avoid undermining anti-inflation efforts, indicating a downward risk in the labor market [11] - Another Fed official, Waller, suggested that a rate cut in December could be warranted due to a weak labor market and its impact on low-income consumers [11] Commodity Market - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 1.2% at $4,045.1 per ounce and silver futures down 1.25% at $50.05 per ounce. Crude oil prices also declined, with US oil down 0.62% at $59.72 per barrel [12]

14、A股投资避雷针︱科创信息：因涉嫌信息披露违法违规 证监会对公司立案；*ST新研：公司股票交 易将被叠加实施退市风险警示。 1、美股三大指数集体收跌，谷歌逆势涨超3%，中概指数跌1.21%； 2、高盛：将美、布两油明年均价下调至每桶52美元和56美元； 3、高盛：各国央行可能在11月大量购金 维持明年底4900的金价预期； 4、印度10月贸易逆差创纪录 因黄金进口飙升、对美出口下滑； 5、韩国提议举行朝韩军事会谈； 6、知情人士：英国拟定对欧盟钢铁关税反制措施； 7、美联储理事沃勒：支持在12月进行风险管理式降息； 8、马斯克嫌三星台积电太慢 拟为特斯拉自建芯片工厂； 9、欧盟评估将云服务纳入监管 AWS、Azure、谷歌云等科技巨头受关注； 大中华区要闻： 1、中国1-10月个人所得税13363亿元，同比增11.5%； 2、中国1-10月税收收入同比增1.7%，非税收入同比下降3.1%； 3、中国1-10月证券交易印花税1629亿元，同比增88.1%； 4、部分日本电影暂缓上映； 5、出境游热门目的地座次重排：韩国取代日本成为最热门目的地； 6、美团：冰雪游搜索量上升，北京位居热门目的地榜首； 7、知名 ...

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 557 points (1.18%), the S&P 500 down by 0.92%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.84% [5] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with AMD and Intel dropping over 2%, while Google saw an increase of over 3% [5] - Cryptocurrency market continued its downward trend, with Bitcoin falling to $91,700, a decrease of nearly 3% [6] Commodity Prices - International gold prices significantly decreased, with spot gold down by 0.91% to $4,044.67 per ounce [7] - International oil prices also fell, with WTI crude oil down by 0.57% to $59.75 per barrel [8] Corporate Developments - Huawei announced the launch of the Mate 80 series and other new products, with a release event scheduled for November 25 [20] - Alibaba launched the "Qianwen" app, entering the AI to C market, aiming to compete with ChatGPT [22] - JD.com announced the launch of an independent app for its food delivery service, with a commitment to keep its review platform non-commercial [23] - Xpeng Motors reported a third-quarter revenue of RMB 20.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% [26] - Lenovo Holdings announced a leadership change, with Li Peng resigning as CEO and Yu Hao appointed as the new CEO [28] Regulatory and Economic Updates - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached RMB 186.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [13] - The Ministry of Commerce initiated a final review investigation on anti-subsidy measures for imported propanol from the US [14] International Relations - Chinese officials expressed strong opposition to US arms sales to Taiwan, emphasizing the violation of the One China principle [11] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Japanese Prime Minister's comments on Taiwan, urging Japan to adhere to its commitments regarding Taiwan [12]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a further interest rate cut at the December meeting due to a weakening labor market and the pressure high interest rates are placing on middle- and low-income households [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Waller emphasizes that continuing to lower rates is a form of "good risk management" in the current economic environment [1] - He notes that with core inflation nearing the FOMC target and signs of weakness in the labor market, he supports a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting [1] - The upcoming September non-farm payroll report is unlikely to change his view on the need for another rate cut [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Household Impact - Waller highlights that high mortgage and auto loan costs are straining American household budgets [1] - Despite the stock market reaching new highs due to optimism around AI, this has not translated into job growth [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Waller's stance reflects a division within the FOMC, with some officials concerned about persistent inflation while others are wary of the risks posed by a weakening labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time last month in response to labor market weakness [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped from nearly 100% to about 40% following hawkish comments from several officials [2]

智通财经APP获悉，周一，三大指数下跌，比特币跌破9.2万美元关口。美联储理事沃勒重申，他认为 央行应该在12月会议上再次降息，理由是劳动力市场疲软以及货币政策在伤害中低收入消费者。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌557.24点，跌幅为1.18%，报46590.24点；纳指跌192.51点，跌幅为0.84%， 报22708.07点；标普500指数跌61.7点，跌幅为0.92%，报6672.41点。获巴菲特建仓的谷歌(GOOG.US)逆 市涨超3%，苹果(AAPL.US)跌超1.8%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌1.88%，Coinbase(COIN.US)跌超7%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌283.38点，跌幅1.19%，报23603.69点；英国富时100指数跌22.72点，跌幅 0.23%，报9675.65点；法国CAC40指数跌51.07点，跌幅0.63%，报8119.02点；欧洲斯托克50指数跌 52.32点，跌幅0.92%，报5641.45点；西班牙IBEX35指数跌182.30点，跌幅1.11%，报16169.40点；意大 利富时MIB指数跌219.69点，跌幅0.50%，报43775.00点。 【美 ...

周一，下任美联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）表示，他支持在美联 储12月会议上再次降息，原因是他对劳动力市场以及招聘大幅放缓感到担忧。 周一，美联储副主席杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）表示，他认为就业面临的下行风险有所上升，不过他也 重申，随着利率接近中性水平，决策者需要更加谨慎、缓步推进： 沃勒在伦敦向一群经济学家发表的预备讲话中表示： 我并不担心通胀加速或通胀预期显著上升。我关注的是劳动力市场。经过数月的走弱，我认 为本周稍后公布的9月就业报告，或未来几周的任何其他数据，都不大可能改变我认为需要 再次降息的观点。 沃勒明确表示，他支持再降息25个基点。另一位美联储理事史蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran），和沃勒一 样由美国总统特朗普任命，米兰在此前两次会议中倾向于降息50个基点。 尽管沃勒近月多次发声支持降息，但他也根据最新情况更新了自己的观点。由于近期政府关门导致官方 数据缺失，他引用了多项私人及少量公共部门的指标，显示劳动力市场需求疲弱以及消费者承压。 与此同时，他表示，价格数据表明关税不会对通胀产生持久影响。再次降息将是一种"风险管理" ...

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 总量有压力，降息空间正在打开 ——10 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 10 月经济数据增速在高基数下总体放缓，供需两端同步走弱，工业、投资、消费及出口增 长均减速，汽车、家用电器类商品零售走弱。新旧动能转换持续，服务消费和高端制造保持韧 性，经济修复呈现"传统承压、新兴支撑"特征。量价表现出现背离，后续或难以对工业品价 格形成持续拉动，若"量能"进一步放缓，价格实际改善力度及持续性可能有限。降息窗口预 计在今年四季度至明年一季度打开，我们建议与其博弈降息时点，不如抓住落地前的抢跑机会。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 总量有压力，降息空间正在打开 2] ——10 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 今年 10 月经济数据总体承压，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 4.9%，前值为 ...

国外 高盛的分析师表示，受能源需求不断增长以及低碳技术规模化挑战的推动，全球石油需求预计将持续增 长至2040年。预计石油需求将达到每天1.13亿桶，高于去年的每天1.035亿桶，这得益于喷气燃料和石化 产品缺乏替代品、人工智能带来的推动，以及全球能源需求的总体增长预计将超过石油被低碳替代品取 代的速度。这家美国银行的分析师表示："我们预计2025年至2030年间，年均需求将稳健增长90万桶/ 日，随后到2040年将放缓至10万桶/日。" 2. 大摩：恒指明年底最乐观见34700点，最悲观情景目标为18700点 摩根士丹利发表报告称，在经历2025年的高回报后，2026年将是稳定下来。由于每股盈利增长温和，且 估值稳定在较高水平，指数上涨空间有限。大摩给予恒生指数明年底基本情境目标为27500点；最乐观 情景下目标价34700点；最悲观情景目标为18700点。国企指数明年底的基本情境目标为9700点，最乐观 情景下，明年底目标价12190点；最悲观情景目标6670点。 3. 巴克莱：预测美联储将提前扩表明年2月开始购买国库券 在多位美联储关键官员暗示将扩大资产负债表后，巴克莱策略师预计，美联储将于明年2月开始 ...