Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate on December 2, with COMEX gold futures dropping to $4,194 before a slight recovery, resulting in a daily fluctuation of over $70. The closing price was $4,238.70 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.84% [1] - Recent data indicates a gradual cooling of the U.S. economy, coupled with dovish signals from Fed officials, which has increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, with traders pricing in a 89% probability of a rate cut [1] - Analysts noted that the midday drop in gold prices was due to profit-taking by investors following a recent strong rally [1] Group 2 - According to Chaos Tiancheng Futures analysis, the outlook for gold prices in 2025 is based on the logic of U.S. dollar credit contraction, alongside the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to weaken the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, creating a smoother upward trend [1] - The overall trading direction for next year is expected to be significantly influenced by macroeconomic changes, suggesting that while the current narrative remains intact, the market has not yet reached the end of a bull market and still holds allocation value, though caution is advised regarding potential shifts in high-level macro narratives [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continued to fluctuate on December 2, influenced by profit-taking, with COMEX gold futures dropping to $4,194 before slightly recovering, closing down 0.84% at $4,238.70 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures experienced a significant intraday volatility of over $70, closing at $4,238.70 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.48%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 1.24% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a gradual cooling of the U.S. economy, coupled with dovish signals from Fed officials, which has heightened market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting [1] - Traders are currently pricing in a 89% probability of a rate cut [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysis from Chaos Tiancheng Futures suggests that gold prices are expected to trend upward due to a contraction in dollar credit and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, alongside weakening expectations for the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The overall trading direction for next year is anticipated to be significantly influenced by macroeconomic changes, with the current narrative indicating that the bull market has not yet reached its end, maintaining investment value despite the need for caution regarding potential shifts in high-level macro narratives [1]

来源：滚动播报 经合组织最新预测显示，主要经济体的降息周期将在2026年底前结束。该组织指出，尽管经济增长将趋 于放缓，但多数主要央行的政策宽松空间已十分有限。经合组织预计，美联储在2026年底前仅会再降息 两次，随后将在整个2027年将联邦基金利率维持在3.25%至3.5%区间——此举旨在平衡关税引发的通胀 压力与劳动力市场疲软的影响。此外，该组织预计欧元区和加拿大不会进一步降息，而通胀率最终稳定 在2%左右的日本将持续收紧货币政策。对于英国，经合组织表示英国央行的降息"将在2026年上半年停 止"，澳洲联储则将在同年下半年达到类似节点。 ...

年内行情跌宕起伏 降息周期点燃牛市引擎 回顾2025年白银市场走势，可谓一波三折、后劲十足。1-5月，国际银价维持29-35美元/盎司区间小幅震荡，沪银主力合约同步在7500-8500元/千克区间温 和波动，市场整体处于蓄势阶段。6月起，全球白银库存告急信号持续释放，叠加光伏产业用银需求爆发式增长，白银价格迎来首次加速突破，开启上行 通道。7-8月，市场关注度逐步提升，国际银价在36-41美元/盎司区间筑牢支撑，沪银主力合约稳步攀升至9300元/千克上方。 9月美联储正式开启降息周期，为白银牛市注入关键动力，市场热情被彻底点燃，银价进入加速上涨阶段。10月中旬，白银价格出现短暂剧烈回调，获利 回吐并未逆转上行趋势，反而为后续上涨积蓄动能。11月市场再度爆发，期现货价格同步创下历史纪录，截至12月1日，伦敦现货白银盘中突破57美元/盎 司，年内涨幅超90%，表现远超黄金。 供需缺口叠加交割风险 逼空行情持续升温 12月1日亚洲交易时段，伦敦现货白银价格盘中突破每盎司57美元，创下历史新高。截至目前，国际白银价格年内涨幅已超90%，大幅跑赢黄金同期表 现，成为2025年全球表现最佳的资产之一，上演了一波惊艳的牛市 ...

生物科技ETF价值凸显，但慎防短期溢价风险。 作者 | RAYYYY 编辑 | 小白 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 跟踪指数名称 | 基金规模合并值(亿元) 11月涨跌幅(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159502. SZ | 标普生物科技ETF | 标普生物科技精选行业指数 | 22. 08 | 14. 03 | | 513290. SH | 纳指生物科技ETF | 纳斯达克生物科技指数 | 15. 37 | 12. 83 | | 513350. SH | 标普油气ETF | S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry | 6. 19 | 4. 30 | | 159121. SZ | 恒生汽车ETF | 恒生港股通汽车主题指数 | 2. 04 | 4.21 | | 159518. SZ | 标普油气ETF | S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry | 12. 84 | 4. 18 | | 159108. SZ | 工业 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 "十五五"开年给铝消费带来新希望 新能源&有色组铝产业年报 本期分析研究员 陈思捷 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 师橙 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 铝年度报告 2025-11-30 "十五五"开年给铝消费带来新希望 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 联系人 蔺一杭 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：linyihang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03149704 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：兴业研究；作者：张峻滔 付晓芸 郭嘉沂 贵金属 10月末至11月中旬，黄金多次向下试探3900至4000美元/盎司，特别是在11月中比特币跌破10万美元大关带来的抛售潮中黄金依然稳守4000美元/盎司关 口，表明下方承接盘较强或者是在4000美元/盎司之下多头减仓意愿明显下降。 短期美元美债区间运行，不过当前美国就业市场已经处于需要高度警惕的阶段，未来随着美国库存周期探底，就业市场压力可能进一步加剧。因此美联储 大概率会延续降息周期，创造有利于黄金的宏观环境。而且从以往黄金相较于比特币的BETA来看，库存周期尾部BETA往往处于相对高位，随着库存周 期临近结束以及新库存周期开启，BETA会出现回落，意味着比特币短期波动仍会对于黄金造成扰动，但随着时间演进，影响会逐步回落。黄金未来几周 总体震荡，可逢下探继续买入布局来年暖春行情。 白银总体强于黄金，金银比或仍有回落空间。黄金境内外价差快速回升至0后，围绕0值波动。近期黄金阶段性反弹行情中，境内总体弱于境外。 一、市场复盘 2025年10月末美元流动性一度紧张带动黄金再度测试3900美元/盎司未果，后美国政府开门预期下流动性改善，黄金白银集体 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - OPEC+ will pause production increases in the first quarter of next year [1] - U.S. shale oil production may face cost pressures that could limit further output [1] - The supply-demand balance may see easing pressure in the second half of next year [1] Group 2: Petrochemical Industry - The PX-PTA-polyester industry chain is expected to see a recovery in profitability [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - In a defensive market phase or when oil prices stabilize, it is advisable to focus on major Chinese oil companies: China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and China National Offshore Oil [3] - After oil prices hit bottom, large refining companies may experience a turnaround, with a recommendation to pay attention to Rongsheng Petrochemical [3] Group 4: Specific Companies - For PTA and polyester sectors, the decline in long fiber inventory combined with reduced competition suggests monitoring Xin Fengming [4]

本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 【11月27日欧洲央行会议纪要：通胀前景评估基本不变，降息周期或结束】11月27日，欧洲央行会议纪 要显示，其对通胀前景评估基本未变。有官员称，除非风险成为现实，当前有利前景或延续，降息周期 已结束。 央行认为，采取稳健策略可增加保持良好状态的机会。从战略角度，货币政策立场不应针对 温和且暂时的通胀波动微调，仅在预期中期重大偏离目标时调整。 多数委员表示，通胀前景风险双 向，前景比以往更不确定。总体而言，等待更多信息的选择价值仍高。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 11.27 21:03:15 脚 欧洲央行:通胀前景评估不变,降息 周期或已经京 【11月27日欧洲央行会议纪要:通胀前景评估基本 不变,降息周期或结束】 11月27日,欧洲央行会议 纪要显示,其对通胀前景评估基本未变。有官员 称,除非风险成为现实,当前有利前景或延续,降 息周期已结束。央行认为,采取稳健策略可增加保 持良好状态的机会。从战略角度,货币政策立场不 应针对温和且暂时的通胀波动微调,仅在预期中期 重大偏离目标 ...

Group 1: Key Insights on Light Industry and Textile Apparel - The潮玩 (trendy toys) industry has a promising outlook, with a projected CAGR of 23.2% from 2019 to 2024, expecting to reach 213.3 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the Z generation's pursuit of personalization and cultural value [2] - The pet industry is expected to grow to 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, supported by factors such as family size reduction and the aging population, with the pet food sector projected to reach 158.5 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The metal packaging sector is experiencing revenue and profit improvements, with a shift towards a "value war" and increased overseas business development, enhancing long-term profitability [2] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a gradual recovery in orders as tariff risks diminish, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue changes of +1.44%, -0.75%, and -1.03% respectively [3] - The domestic clothing market is showing weak performance, but policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to boost the sports apparel market, projected to reach 408.9 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Investment strategies highlight the ongoing consumer focus on emotional value, benefiting industries like trendy toys and pets, while the textile sector is poised for recovery due to stable tariff risks and supportive policies [3] Group 2: Key Insights on Machinery Equipment - In October, China's engineering machinery import and export trade reached 4.844 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with an average operating rate of 45.56% for the industry [6] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and a favorable domestic investment strategy [6] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with specific companies like 中联重科 (Zoomlion) and 恒立液压 (Hengli Hydraulic) recommended for "increase" ratings [7] Group 3: Key Insights on Metal Industry - Gold prices are expected to rise due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a projected demand increase from global ETFs and stable industrial demand [8] - Copper supply is anticipated to turn short in 2026, driven by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors and technological advancements, which may support copper prices [8] - Tungsten's strategic value is highlighted by strong demand in high-tech and defense sectors, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated [9] - Cobalt supply is projected to face significant shortfalls due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand from the electric vehicle battery sector expected to rise [9]