香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波表示，较高利息环境已持续相当长一段时间，降息令企业利息负担轻一 点，对供楼人士也是好消息。港元与美元挂钩，降息方向一致，但香港未必会跟得太紧，因为要考虑香 港市场资金状况。 他说，虽然有"降息"因素支持，但由于关税及贸易保护主义等外围因素变数太大，因此目前不会调整香 港全年经济增长预测。 香港的银行降息，加上刚发表的施政报告提出放宽"新资本投资者入境计划"置业门槛，地产界人士普遍 认为，这将为香港楼市注入"强心针"。 中新社香港9月18日电 (记者 魏华都)美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)宣布降息，而且今年年内可能降息两 次。香港政商界人士18日回应，外围启动降息周期，有利营商环境和资产市场长远发展。 当地时间17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4%至4.25%之间的水平。这是自 2024年12月后再次降息，符合市场预期。 因应美联储降息，香港金融管理局宣布将基本利率下调至4.5%，即时生效。香港现有三家发钞行—— 渣打银行(香港)有限公司、中国银行(香港)有限公司、香港上海汇丰银行有限公司均宣布下调港元最优 惠利率0.125%，其他银行预料也会跟进。 9月18日， ...

黄金方面： 凌晨美联储再次开启降息，降息25个基点，但短线黄金却迎来一波下跌，有买预期卖现实的味道，前期 支撑黄金上涨的逻辑基本到头，投资者可适当转换投资方向。从中长期来看，黄金依旧有着巨大的上涨 潜力，随着降息的开启，美元指数将不可避免的走弱，弱势美元是强势黄金的坚实基础。根据德银数 据，各国央行购金需求目前仍以2011年至2021年平均水平的两倍速度增长，主要由东亚地区推动，今年 再生黄金供应量低于预期水平约4%，也为金价上行提供了空间。智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，根据 历史经验，降息往往是对全球新的挑战，地缘风险和各种摩擦会增加，同时各国还会伴随着输入性通胀 发生，对黄金而言是巨大利好，黄金长期来看值得持有。 来源：智昇财论 日经225方面： 技术面：黄金日线收吊颈小阴线，阶段性顶部可能已经出现。1小时周期出现向上的虚破，短期方向基 本确定，但短周期结构上有完成的可能，日内可能先上后下，日内可关注上方3670美元一线的压力。 原油方面： 隔夜油价再次开启下跌模式，走弱的美元也未对油价形成有效支撑，市场甚至直接无视大幅下降的EIA 原油库存，毕竟短期的库存变化难以影响长期库存积压的趋势。美国至9月12日当 ...

作者：李金涛/F3015806、Z0013195/ 免 责 声 明 本研究报告由一德期货有限公司（以下简称"一德期货"）编制，本公司具有中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格（证监许可〔2012〕38号）。 尽管如此，目前金银比还在88的高位，主要原因是黄金更加稀有，各国央行仍在以黄金为优先配置，而人为压低了白银价值。不过白银现在已经站在历史 性拐点上，投资需求涌入，工业需求爆发增长，库存枯竭，一切都指向白银可能还将经历一场价格风暴。 编辑：王舟青 审核：李煜爽 报告制作日期：2025年9月18日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2012〕38号 今天（北京时间9月18日）凌晨美联储如期再次降息25个基点。从投票情况来看理事基本没有太多分歧，给市场传达的信号是对这次降息基本一致认为是 预防式降息，美国经济没有发生危险的状况。随政策会议纪要一同发布的点阵图显示，多数官员预计到年底将再降息50个基点，也就是还要再降息两次， 未来两年每年再降息25个基点。 靴子落地，没有惊喜，也没有惊吓。今天贵金属和有色把前一段的降息预期溢价给跌回去了，用利多落地来解释不算意外。但从长期视角看，我认为随着 降息周期再次打开，美元环流开启 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has officially initiated a rate-cutting cycle by lowering the benchmark interest rate from 4.25% to 4%, with a potential for three total cuts this year [1] - The latest dot plot indicates that most committee members expect two more 25 basis point cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, suggesting a long-term downward trend in interest rates [3] - Market expectations show a high probability of rate cuts, with an 87.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October and an 81.6% chance of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points by December [5] Group 2 - Fed Chair Powell emphasized a gradual approach to rate cuts, indicating a balance between employment and inflation risks, with an expected unemployment rate of 4.5% and a PCE inflation rate of 3% this year [6] - Continuous rate cuts may lead to rapid capital outflows from the U.S., putting pressure on the historically high U.S. stock indices, which could prompt the U.S. to implement measures to slow down this outflow [8] - The decline in interest rates reduces the cost of holding gold, coupled with increased demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting a strong long-term outlook for gold prices, potentially reaching $4,000 [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - Analysts suggest that the global shift towards a rate-cutting cycle may reshape asset pricing logic, potentially increasing global market risk appetite and directing funds towards non-US markets and high-yield assets, creating new investment opportunities [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, composed of the 30 largest tech-related companies listed in Hong Kong, currently has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio at the 35th percentile since its launch in 2020, indicating a historical low valuation [1] Group 2 - The recent rate cut may provide a repair window for undervalued assets in the tech sector, prompting a shift of funds from overvalued areas to more attractive investments [1] - The E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF (513010) has seen a net inflow of over 3.5 billion yuan in the past month, with its product scale surpassing 20 billion yuan, reaching a new high since its inception, facilitating investor access to leading tech stocks in Hong Kong [1]

据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月17日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要 显示，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年 12月以来的首次降息。利率决议公布之后，美股出现波动，纳指一度跌超1%。截至收盘，三大指数涨 跌不一，道指涨0.57%，纳指跌0.33%，标普500指数跌0.1%。 理查德·罗伯茨称，这是一场牛市，而且抬头低头皆为牛市。 罗伯茨认为，这是个非常有趣的市场，连风险资产也是值得关注的。他补充道，"若看到加密货币等资 产借此腾飞，也毫不意外。" 0:00 南方财经记者 施诗、杨雨莱 "一旦美联储开启降息周期，将向全球市场打开流动性水龙头，对风险资产是利好。"纽约联储银行前信 贷风险主管理查德·罗伯茨(Richard Roberts)对南方财经记者表示。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates this year and next, supporting a bullish outlook for gold prices despite short-term fluctuations [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 17, gold prices opened at $3689.51 per ounce, initially declined to $3660 before rebounding, reaching a high of $3707 after the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut [3]. - Following the rate cut, gold prices dropped to a low of $3646.07 but closed at $3659.77, reflecting a daily decline of $29.74 or 0.81% [3][5]. - The market anticipates mixed outcomes from upcoming economic data, but overall, the sentiment leans towards supporting gold prices [5]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The current interest rate cut cycle is expected to lead to a total of three rate cuts (75 basis points) this year and one next year, which will likely drive gold prices higher [5]. - Factors such as global monetary policy easing, weakening of the US dollar credit system, persistent geopolitical risks, and institutional demand for gold are expected to sustain a bullish trend for gold [5][6]. - The target price for gold remains at $4200 or higher, indicating a strong bullish foundation for the commodity [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows gold prices have consistently bounced off the midline support and are expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by the upper Bollinger Band [6]. - The daily chart indicates that despite a recent pullback, the overall upward trend remains intact, with higher lows suggesting bullish momentum [8]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3650 and $3640, while resistance levels are at $3685 and $3706 [9].

Group 1 - The global manufacturing investment is expected to rise, with a focus on overseas resource products, industrial goods, consumer goods in Europe and the US, and supply chain companies [1] - Resources with global pricing power include oil and gas, marine engineering, mining, and shipbuilding sectors [1] - Industrial goods with increasing overseas market share include engineering machinery, forklifts, and high-tech equipment [1] - Consumer goods, particularly hand tools in the US, showed significant performance during the last interest rate cut cycle [1] - Companies deeply involved in the global industrial supply chain are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The global PMI reached a 14-month high in August, with 18 out of 33 countries showing growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US [2] - Germany's fiscal stimulus has significantly impacted its manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI rising above the 50 mark for the first time in August [2] - The US is promoting manufacturing return through external tariffs and internal tax cuts, leading to increased construction spending, with a focus on traditional industries like metal manufacturing [2] Group 3 - US manufacturing inventory levels are at historical lows, initiating a replenishment cycle after 20 months of active destocking [3] - Retailers are leading the destocking process, which is now transitioning into a replenishment trend, positively affecting manufacturing and wholesale sectors [3] - Different sub-sectors of machinery are experiencing varying levels of expansion, with construction machinery showing the strongest recovery [3] - The recovery in industrial goods is expected to be resilient and sustainable, while consumer goods are more sensitive to interest rates and have a stronger recovery potential [3]

今天凌晨，由于受到受美联储利率决议以及美联储鲍威尔讲话影响，金融市场出现极为剧烈的波动。美国 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率从4.25%-4.50%降至4.00%-4.25%， 符合市场预期。这是去年12月以来FOMC首次行动。FOMC去年曾实施三次降息，但之后一直"按兵不 动"。 回顾2015-2024年的六次美联储降息周期，黄金走势呈现明显规律性。在降息预期发酵阶段（政策落地前3 个月），金价平均上涨18%，如2019年6-9月期间累计涨幅达21%。唯一例外是2024年9月，由于降息幅度 超预期且伴随地缘冲突，黄金与风险资产出现同涨。而当前市场正处于"预期兑现"向"政策消化"过渡的敏 感期，历史经验提示需警惕短期回调风险。 美联储决议后，现货黄金一度飙升至3707.48美元/盎司，创下历史新高，但随着美元反弹，加之投资者获 利了结，金价自高位大幅下滑。在鲍威尔讲话后，金价一度跌至3646.00美元/盎司。 十年降息周期中的黄金"魔咒" | 日期 | 品种 | 方向 | 开仓时间 | 开仓点位 | 平仓点位 | 盛亏点 | 是否持仓过夜 | | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. The Canadian central bank also cut rates. Hong Kong aims to assist mainland tech firms in financing, promote RMB - denominated trading of Hong Kong stocks, and build a regional gold reserve hub [1]. - Gold has long - term upward drivers due to factors like the Fed's rate - cut cycle, weak U.S. employment data, and central banks' gold purchases, but short - term adjustments may occur after the expected rate cut [2]. - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the combination of tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, along with mixed downstream demand [3]. - The Chinese stock index has entered a high - level consolidation phase in September. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun, with different index characteristics for offensive and defensive strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day - **International News**: On September 18, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with the dot - plot indicating another 50 - basis - point cut in 2025 and a 2026 median rate of 3.4% [5]. - **Domestic News**: The National Cyberspace Administration of China requires leading enterprises to take on the responsibility of tackling "neck - stuck" technologies in key areas like chips [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public comments on a mandatory national standard for intelligent connected vehicles' combined driving assistance systems. From January to July, the sales of passenger cars with combined driving assistance systems reached 7.7599 million, a 21.31% year - on - year increase [7]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.63%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.85%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 1.93%, and other commodities had various changes in price on September 17 compared to September 16 [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance. The Chinese stock index rose, with the power equipment sector leading the gain and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.40 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased on September 16. September's trend is more volatile, and the market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just started [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank increased net reverse - repurchase operations. With the Fed's rate cut, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and the bond price has stabilized [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.52% at night. Eight countries decided to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel voluntary cut may be partially or fully restored [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.67% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol inventory along the coast increased significantly. Methanol is short - term bearish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Supply is increasing, but with the arrival of the peak consumption season, demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices rebounded. The current market is mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has eased, and the stable oil price provides support. Terminal demand recovery may support the price rebound [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures are consolidating. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased last week. The market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the future depends on consumption and policy changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated more after the Fed's rate - cut decision. Gold has long - term upward drivers but may face short - term adjustments [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.84% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is high. Downstream demand is mixed, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.76% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and smelting output is expected to rise. Short - term supply may exceed demand, and zinc prices may be weakly volatile [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is increasing, while demand shows a mixed trend. The inventory is decreasing. Futures prices may be highly volatile, and the price is under pressure from the expected resumption of production [22]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend at night. The short - term market is under pressure but also supported by policy expectations [23]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The steel market has a small supply - demand contradiction. The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is facing challenges, and the market is in a short - term adjustment phase [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With the improvement of Sino - U.S. trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats were weakly volatile at night. The MPOB report had a negative impact on palm oil, but the impact has been mostly digested. The market is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Sugar**: International raw sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventory but is also under pressure from imported sugar and new - season beet sugar. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international trend and be weak [29]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. The domestic cotton market is entering the new - flower acquisition period, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [30]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was weak. During the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies' cargo - booking pressure increased, and price cuts intensified. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and attention should be paid to the follow - up price - cut rhythm of shipping companies [31].