Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment with nearly 3,000 stocks in the market showing gains. The leading sectors included cultivated diamonds, photovoltaic equipment, battery chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, while sectors such as coal mining, insurance, liquor, AI corpus, computing hardware, and securities saw declines [1] - The Hong Kong stock market also faced a pullback, with construction materials, steel, and real estate sectors rising against the trend, while technology and pharmaceutical stocks generally retreated [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.7% at midday, with a rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.4 times, placing it in the 67.3% valuation percentile since its inception in 2005 [2] - The CSI A500 Index decreased by 0.6% at midday, with a rolling P/E ratio of 16.9 times, corresponding to a 73.2% valuation percentile since its launch in 2004 [2] - The ChiNext Index, which tracks 100 large-cap stocks in the ChiNext market, dropped by 0.7% at midday, with a rolling P/E ratio of 41.0 times, placing it in the 35.3% valuation percentile since its inception in 2010 [2] - The STAR Market 50 Index, which includes 50 large-cap stocks from the STAR Market, also fell by 0.7% at midday, with a rolling P/E ratio of 160.0 times, corresponding to a 96.3% valuation percentile since its launch in 2020 [2] Hong Kong Market Index - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which consists of 50 large-cap and actively traded stocks listed in Hong Kong, declined by 0.3% at midday, with a rolling P/E ratio of 10.9 times, placing it in the 66.6% valuation percentile since its inception in 2002 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.03% to 3996.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.59% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.13% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices of A-shares adjusted collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3996.26 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 145.44 billion yuan, an increase of 18.83 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2900 stocks in the market showed gains despite the overall decline [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The consumer sector showed resilience, with industries such as dairy, liquor, food, and duty-free shops leading the gains [1] - Positive signals were released from the National Bureau of Statistics regarding October's inflation data [1] - The Ministry of Finance indicated that it will continue to implement measures to boost consumption [1] - The chemical sector maintained its upward trend [1] - The copper cable high-speed connection and CPO hardware sectors experienced significant declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with a slight weekly increase and active trading, but there is a notable rotation of funds towards consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, while previously strong AI and technology stocks are undergoing adjustments [1] Market Performance - The CSI 300 Index has increased by 21.65% since the beginning of 2023, with a current rolling TTM PE of approximately 14.1 times, positioned at about the 64th percentile historically [2] - The CSI 500 Index has risen by 25.01% in 2023, with a TTM PE of around 34 times, situated at about the 62nd percentile historically, indicating a higher valuation cost-effectiveness [2] - The ChiNext Index has seen a 38.47% increase since the start of 2023, with a TTM PE of approximately 41 times, located at the 35th percentile historically, suggesting a greater undervaluation compared to the other indices [2] Valuation Comparison - The A-share market, represented by the CSI 300 Index at 14.1 times PE, is significantly lower than major global indices such as the S&P 500 (29.1 times), NASDAQ (42.3 times), Nikkei 225 (23.2 times), and Sensex (23.2 times), highlighting the valuation advantage of A-shares [3] - The risk premium, indicated by the dividend yield minus the ten-year government bond yield, is currently at 0.73, which is notably above the historical average, suggesting attractive excess returns for equity investors [2] Investor Sentiment - Despite the market's rise over the past year, A-share investors remain cautious rather than overly optimistic, reflecting a mixed performance across sectors, with some benefiting from the global AI cycle while others, like real estate and midstream manufacturing, continue to struggle [4] - The current market environment does not indicate systemic overvaluation risks but rather a correction of overly pessimistic expectations, particularly in growth and cyclical sectors [4] - The outlook for A-shares is optimistic, supported by clear policy frameworks, stable economic fundamentals, improving liquidity, and healthier valuations, suggesting a preference for a "slow bull" market rather than a "crazy bull" scenario [4]

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant events affecting the Chinese economy, including tariff adjustments and trade data, indicating a mixed outlook for imports and exports, alongside ongoing market dynamics in the A-share and bond markets [2][4][5]. Important Events Review - On November 5, the State Council Tariff Commission announced a suspension of the 24% tariff on U.S. imports starting from November 10, 2025, while maintaining a 10% tariff [2]. - The 8th China International Import Expo commenced on November 5 in Shanghai, showcasing advanced products across various industries, enhancing the event's technological appeal [2]. - Customs data released on November 7 indicated that China's exports in October decreased by 0.8% year-on-year in RMB terms, while imports increased by 1.4%. In USD terms, exports fell by 1.1%, and imports rose by 1.0% [2]. Weekly Market Review - The bond market experienced slight fluctuations, with the central bank's announcement of a 20 billion yuan bond purchase in October falling short of market expectations, leading to a lack of sustained bullish momentum [4]. - The A-share market showed a strong sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, indicating a consolidation phase [5].

Core Insights - The survey conducted by Securities Times Data Treasure indicates a mixed sentiment among investors regarding A-share market movements, with a notable increase in optimism towards the new energy sector [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - 23% of surveyed investors increased their positions, while 18% reduced their holdings, and 5% completely exited their positions; 54% maintained their current holdings [1] - Approximately 52% of respondents believe that A-shares will rise above 4000 points and stabilize, while 28% expect a rise followed by a decline [1] Group 2: Sector Outlook - The proportion of investors optimistic about the new energy sector has significantly increased from 11% to 20%, marking a 9 percentage point rise [2] - Other sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, and large financials have seen a decrease in positive sentiment, with technology dropping from 48% to 43%, pharmaceuticals from 9% to 7%, and large financials from 8% to 6% [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of balancing between policy expectations and economic realities, with a focus on maintaining reasonable liquidity through monetary policy [2] - The market is expected to shift from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with anticipated stronger fiscal policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [2] - The "new quality productivity" and "domestic circulation" themes are expected to remain active despite the overall market maintaining a state of fluctuation [2] Group 2 - Growth style is expected to continue to outperform in the annual context, but the fourth quarter may see a stronger shift in investment styles, particularly towards undervalued sectors [3] - The strength of style changes in the fourth quarter may surpass that of valuation adjustments, influenced by the relative valuation advantages of value stocks compared to growth stocks [3] - The cyclical sectors may benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and improving the fundamental outlook in the coming year [3] Group 3 - Recent market price increases are driven by anticipations of a cyclical upturn in the coming year, with historical patterns indicating that certain years are associated with rising PPI [4] - The overlap of China's five-year cycle and the U.S. four-year cycle is expected to culminate in a significant year for industrial metal prices in 2026 [4] - Current cyclical investment opportunities include sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, which are seen as favorable for positioning [4] Group 4 - The market has experienced increased volatility since October, with a shift in the underlying structure of incremental capital affecting traditional aggressive timing strategies [5] - The stability of the corporate overseas environment and developments in AI are critical variables influencing market dynamics, impacting various sectors including TMT, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [5] - The strategy for portfolio adjustment is focused on selecting stocks with a rising trend in ROE rather than avoiding AI narratives, which are seen as influencing market slopes rather than overall trends [5]

Core Viewpoint - The stock private equity position index has surpassed 80% for the first time this year, indicating a growing optimism among private equity institutions regarding the market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Private Equity Position Index - As of October 31, the stock private equity position index rose to 80.16%, up 0.79 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - Since early August, the index has shown a significant upward trend, increasing from 73.93% to 80.16%, a total rise of 6.23 percentage points [1]. - Over 80% of stock private equity positions are above 50%, with 63.21% of positions exceeding 80% [1]. Group 2: Large Private Equity Institutions - Large private equity institutions continue to maintain high position levels, with indices of 80.07% and 85.02% for those managing over 100 billion and between 50 to 100 billion, respectively [2]. - In the 100 billion-level private equity category, over 90% of positions are not below 50%, with 54.26% above 80% [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by the current policy environment and the emerging asset allocation towards equity markets [3]. - Short-term market fluctuations may occur, particularly in the technology sector, but long-term prospects remain positive due to policy support [3]. - Investors are advised to focus on a balanced asset allocation, considering both technology growth assets and stable assets [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ADP employment figures in the US in October significantly exceeded expectations, reversing the downward trend from the previous month's revised data, indicating signs of stabilization in the labor market, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high in nearly 8 months. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US and the delay in official data release, the market has concerns about the economic and employment outlook, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains volatile [2]. - Despite being affected by overseas markets, A - shares showed resilience. The index remained in the consolidation range after breaking through 4000 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% this week, returning to the 4000 - point level. The large - cap broad - based indices were relatively stronger, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rising about 0.8% for the week, leading the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2]. - The trading volume this week decreased significantly compared to last week, with the average daily volume less than 2 trillion. The inflow of margin trading slowed down, and the market entered a phase of volume - contraction game [2]. - The "dividend + micro - cap" old dumbbell structure returned in terms of style. The CSI Dividend and micro - cap stock indices led the core indices, while the Beijing Stock Exchange and Sci - tech Innovation Board lagged behind [2]. - The basis of all varieties weakened slightly compared to last week. The premium of IH narrowed to less than 1%, and the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM reached 2.5%, 9.9%, and 12.7% respectively, still at the lower quartile in the past three years. The near - end of the term structure declined slightly, with little overall change from last week, and long - short diversified hedging can still be maintained [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion of Basis Direction - This week's model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively next week [4]. Recent Forecast Conclusion - Specific data on the predicted basis changes of IH, IF, and IC are provided, but the information is presented in a somewhat disorganized manner in the text [3]. This Week's Review - The ADP employment data in the US in October reversed the previous decline, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high, but market concerns persisted due to the government shutdown and data delay. The A - share market showed resilience despite overseas shocks, with the index rising and the large - cap broad - based indices performing better. The trading volume decreased, and the "dividend + micro - cap" style returned. The basis of all varieties weakened slightly [2].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile rebound this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [1] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.8%, the CSI A500 Index increased by 0.7%, the ChiNext Index grew by 0.6%, the STAR Market 50 Index saw a marginal increase of 0.01%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 1.1% [1][3] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included lithium battery electrolyte, phosphorus chemical, photovoltaic inverters, and charging piles, which saw significant gains [1] - Conversely, sectors such as innovative drugs, CRO (Contract Research Organization), software, and diversified finance experienced declines [1] Index Details - The CSI A500 Index consists of 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, covering 91 out of 93 tertiary industries [4] - The ChiNext Index is composed of 100 stocks from the ChiNext board, with a high proportion in strategic emerging industries, particularly in power equipment, communication, and electronics, which together account for nearly 60% [4] - The STAR Market 50 Index includes 50 stocks from the STAR Market, prominently featuring "hard technology" leaders, with semiconductors making up over 50% and combined with medical devices and photovoltaic equipment, accounting for nearly 75% [4] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index includes 50 large-cap, actively traded stocks of mainland Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, with a broad industry coverage where consumer discretionary, information technology, finance, and energy sectors together represent nearly 85% [4] Performance Metrics - The rolling P/E ratios for the indices are as follows: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index at 14.3 times, CSI A500 Index at 16.8 times, ChiNext Index at 41.4 times, STAR Market 50 Index at 163.9 times, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 10.7 times [3] - The rolling P/E ratio percentiles indicate that the CSI A500 Index is at 66.9%, ChiNext Index at 36.4%, STAR Market 50 Index at 96.6%, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 65.6% [3] Historical Performance - Year-to-date performance shows the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index up by 18.9%, CSI A500 Index up by 22.0%, ChiNext Index up by 49.8%, STAR Market 50 Index up by 43.2%, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 27.1% [7] - Over the past three years, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has increased by 24.8%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has risen by 65.4% [7]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with notable performance in the battery, photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, and chemical products sectors, while sectors like automotive parts, software development, semiconductors, and internet services lagged [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 16.41 times and 50.16 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][16]. - The market is currently at a critical transition point, with expectations of a sideways trading pattern in November, as it prepares for potential index-level movements towards the end of the year [3][16]. - A rebalancing trend is anticipated in the market styles, with a focus on the rotation between growth and value styles, as well as large-cap and small-cap stocks [3][16]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the battery, photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, and chemical products sectors [3][16]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On November 7, the A-share market faced resistance after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index encountering resistance around 4012 points, ultimately closing at 3997.56 points, down 0.25% [7][8]. - The total trading volume for the day was 20,205 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [3][16]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with close attention needed on policy, funding, and external market changes [3][16]. - A balanced investment strategy is advised, seeking equilibrium between technology growth and dividend value, while considering both offensive and defensive positions [3][16].