Inflation Overview - December CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year[2] - Food prices contributed approximately 0.05 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI increase, while industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) added about 0.16 percentage points[2] - Year-on-year, service prices contributed approximately 0.25 percentage points to CPI, and industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) contributed about 0.63 percentage points[2] PPI Analysis - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with PPIRM down by 2.1% year-on-year[2] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw prices rise for three consecutive months, indicating improved supply-demand structures[19] - The year-on-year decline in PPI is narrowing, with notable increases in non-ferrous metals prices by 10.5%[19] Policy Impact - Consumer stimulus policies are showing continued effects, with a notable reduction in the drag from food prices on CPI[7] - The strategy to boost CPI growth in 2026 focuses on reducing food price impacts, improving industrial consumer goods prices, and enhancing service consumption[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of strong expectations but weak reality, with the market likely to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is advisable to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of January 9, the closing price of the main rebar contract was 3144 yuan/ton (+22), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton (+20) [7]. - Rebar production increased to 191.04 million tons (+2.82), a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons [7]. - The apparent demand further declined, with this period's apparent demand at 174.96 million tons (-25.48), a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons [7]. - Both factory and social inventories increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08), a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the same period last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the US Congressional Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year. Domestically, the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year [9]. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore port inventories continued to increase, and coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded, but may enter range - bound trading [9]. - **Technical - aspect**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell, with technical support at the 3100 level [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell this week and was weaker than the RB2610 contract. On the 9th, the spread was - 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On January 9, the rebar warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1811 tons week - on - week, and the net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract increased by 30564 lots [22]. - **Spot price and basis**: On January 9, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the national average price increased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, with the basis on the 9th at 196 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port decreased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [34]. - **Iron ore supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports increased, and port inventories increased. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased [38]. - **Coking plant situation**: The capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory increased, and the available days of coking coal increased [42]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply - side - **Crude steel production**: In November 2025, China's crude steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [46]. - **Rebar production**: On January 8, the weekly rebar production increased by 2.82 million tons week - on - week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week - on - week [50][53]. - **Electric furnace steel**: The average operating rate of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 4.34 percentage points month - on - month [53]. - **Rebar inventory**: On January 8, the total rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons month - on - month [56]. 3.4.2. Demand - side - **Real estate**: From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.5% [59]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [59]. 3.5. Options Market - Due to the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general decline, with only Shanghai aluminum rising by 1.42%. Shanghai nickel led the decline with a drop of 2.67%, while other metals fell by less than 1% [1] - In the external market, base metals collectively rose, with London tin increasing by 1.84%, nickel by 1.72%, copper by 1.17%, and aluminum by 1.16% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rising by 0.53% and silver by 2.69%, while domestic gold increased by 0.68% and silver fell by 0.9% [1] Black Metals - The black metal sector showed mixed results, with stainless steel rising by 0.25%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil both fell by over 1%, with rebar down 1.1% and hot-rolled coil down 1.02% [1] - In the coking coal sector, coking coal fell by 0.71% and coking coke dropped by 1.83% [1] Macro Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with food prices increasing by 1.1% and non-food prices by 0.8% [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] Renewable Energy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced guidelines for industrial green microgrid construction, mandating that newly built renewable energy generation facilities should have a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% [6][7] E-commerce Logistics - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the e-commerce logistics index for December 2025 was 113.6 points, reflecting a 0.5-point increase from the previous month [8] - The increase in the index was driven by improvements in supply-side metrics, while demand remained stable [8] Real Estate Financing - Recent policy guidance allows for the extension of loans for projects on the "white list" of the real estate financing coordination mechanism for up to five years, a significant increase from the previous maximum of two and a half years [9] Currency and Oil Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.15% to 99.01, amid concerns over labor demand and upcoming economic data releases [11] - Oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 0.93% and Brent by 0.97%, driven by geopolitical concerns regarding supply disruptions [12]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the highest growth since March 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1][3][5] - The primary driver for the CPI increase was the rise in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, which saw price increases of 18.2% and 4.4% respectively [5][6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating stable demand recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking three consecutive months of increase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [8][10] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing experienced price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [10] - The year-on-year decline in PPI is expected to narrow further in 2026, with predictions of a potential positive growth rate in the latter half of the year driven by domestic demand recovery and stable expectations [12][13] Group 3 - Experts forecast a moderate recovery in prices for 2026, with CPI expected to stabilize around 0.5% and PPI potentially turning positive by the third quarter [12][13] - Factors contributing to this price recovery include improvements in domestic demand, service price recovery, and stabilization of consumer and business expectations [12][13] - However, some analysts caution that low prices may persist throughout 2026, with a gradual return to inflation expected only by 2027 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in January this year will decrease compared to December last year, and the year-on-year decline of PPI in January will narrow compared to December last year [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. In 2025, the national consumer prices were flat compared to the previous year. Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year, non-food prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, consumer goods prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2][7] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, non-food prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and service prices were flat month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [2][8] - **Eight major categories**: In December, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 0.2% month-on-month, housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, transportation and communication prices were flat month-on-month, medical care prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, education, culture and entertainment prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices were flat month-on-month, daily necessities and services prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and other supplies and services increased by 2.8% month-on-month [9] - **Impact factors**: The increase in the year-on-year increase of food prices in December was an important factor driving the relatively large year-on-year increase of CPI in December. The month-on-month increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy by 0.6% affected the month-on-month increase of CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [2][8] - **January forecast**: The current agricultural product prices are conducive to the increase of the year-on-year CPI data in January, and have little impact on the month-on-month CPI data in January. It is speculated that refined oil prices will have a downward pull on the year-on-year CPI in January and may have a slight downward pull on the month-on-month CPI in January [11] PPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decrease and a previous value of a 2.2% decrease. In 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%. Production material prices decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and living material prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [3][12] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Production material prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and living material prices were flat month-on-month [4][13] - **Industry performance**: In December, industries with a relatively large year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices included the oil and gas extraction industry, coal mining and washing industry, etc.; industries with a relatively large year-on-year increase included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. Industries with a relatively large month-on-month increase in prices included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; industries with a relatively large month-on-month decline included the oil and gas extraction industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries [12][15] - **Impact factors**: The price increases of precious metals represented by gold and silver prices, and non-ferrous metals represented by copper in December played a relatively large role in the month-on-month increase of PPI in December [5][20]

CPI Insights - In December, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and rose by 0.8% year-on-year (previous value: 0.7%) [1] - Core CPI also rose by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and maintained a year-on-year growth of 1.2% for four consecutive months [1] - The main driver for the food CPI was the seasonal increase in fresh fruit prices, while fresh vegetable prices saw a significant decrease in growth [5] PPI Insights - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: 0.1%) but showed a year-on-year decline of -1.9% (previous value: -2.2%) [13] - The structural characteristics of PPI indicate an improvement in overall economic conditions, with the PMI at 50.1% [13] - Rising prices in industrial goods are influenced by geopolitical risks and increased demand in sectors like new energy and AI [2] Market Outlook - The outlook for CPI in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, driven by the upward trend in consumer goods prices due to rising raw material costs [2] - The long-term forecast suggests that pig prices may gradually enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, impacting food CPI [5] - The overall improvement in industrial product prices reflects a recovery in market conditions, supported by various economic policies [13]

国家统计局1月9日发布数据显示，2025年12月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%， 同比上涨0.8%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。2025年全年，CPI与 上年持平；PPI下降2.6%。 "2025年12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，CPI环比和 同比均有上涨，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。"国家统 计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟说。 董莉娟分析，CPI同比涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大 主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。食品价格上涨1.1%，涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影 响比上月增加约0.17个百分点。 具体来看，食品中，鲜菜和鲜果价格涨幅分别扩大至18.2%和4.4%，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月 合计增加约0.16个百分点；牛肉、羊肉和水产品价格分别上涨6.9%、4.4%和1.6%，涨幅均有扩大；猪肉 价格下降14.6%，降幅略有收窄。 从环比看，CPI由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。 新华社北京1月9 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the December 2025 consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a 0.8% year-on-year increase in CPI and a 1.9% year-on-year decrease in PPI [1][4]. Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2023 [4]. - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase [4]. - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively, while beef, lamb, and aquatic products also experienced price hikes [4]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [5]. Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking three consecutive months of growth, while the year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [6]. - The article notes that the construction of a unified national market and ongoing macroeconomic policies have positively influenced price trends in various sectors, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices in certain industries [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the CPI has turned from a decline to an increase, with a year-on-year rise of 0.8% in December 2025, reflecting a gradual improvement in supply-demand relationships and effective governance in key industries [2][4] - The CPI for the entire year of 2025 remained flat compared to the previous year, while the PPI decreased by 2.6%. Experts anticipate that with the implementation of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, the price levels are expected to maintain a stable and moderate trend [2] - Food prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with food prices rising by 1.1% year-on-year, and specific categories like fresh vegetables and fruits seeing increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively [4][5] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating a stable recovery in demand [5][6] - The PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9% in December, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to November, suggesting positive changes in certain industries due to effective macro policies [8] - Prices in key sectors such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing and photovoltaic equipment have shown signs of recovery, with lithium-ion battery prices increasing by 1.0% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in the industry [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a moderate recovery in prices driven by food price increases and improvements in supply-demand dynamics in certain industries [1][2][7]. CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2023, with a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [2][3]. - Food prices rose by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI increase, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant price hikes of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively [2][3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating stable demand recovery [2][3]. PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking three consecutive months of growth, with a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [4][5]. - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases due to improved supply-demand structures, with coal prices rising for five consecutive months [5][6]. - Input factors influenced price trends in the non-ferrous metals and oil-related sectors, with domestic prices for non-ferrous metals rising due to international price increases, while oil prices declined [6]. Future Outlook - Economists predict a moderate recovery in prices for 2026, with CPI expected to rise around 0.5% and PPI potentially turning positive in the third quarter [7][8]. - Factors driving this recovery include improvements in domestic demand, stabilization of service prices, and expectations from residents and businesses [7][8]. - However, some analysts caution that low prices may persist throughout 2026, with a gradual return to inflation expected only by 2027 [8].