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固定收益 | 固定收益点评 PPI 同比低点已过？ 证券研究报告 通胀数据点评 8 月 CPI 同比转负，PPI 降幅收窄 于债市而言，核心 CPI 连续 4 个月回升显示国内需求仍在温和修复，PPI 降幅收窄反映"反内卷"政策和供需关系改善正在起效。"反内卷"政策对 债市的最终影响，很大程度上取决于其带来的价格上升预期是否能被真实 的需求所承接。如果终端需求（如消费和投资）尚未出现明显改善，那么 依靠供给收缩带来的价格上涨或难以持续，仍需关注终端需求的实际修复 效果。 此外，通胀为负意味着实际利率被动抬升，相对于偏弱的经济基本面和偏 低的投资回报率而言，当前实际利率的水平是偏高的，央行或仍有"降低 实体经济融资成本"的诉求。 8 月 CPI：食品价格明显拖累，核心 CPI 持续改善 本月 CPI 同比转负主要源于两方面因素： 一是高基数效应：上年价格变动对本月 CPI 同比的翘尾影响约为-0.9 个百 分点，下拉影响比上月扩大 0.4 个百分点。二是食品价格弱于季节性：食 品价格环比上涨 0.5%，涨幅低于季节性水平约 1.1 个百分点。其中，猪肉、 鸡蛋、鲜果价格变动均弱于季节性。 尽管 CPI 整体表现 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 9 月 11 日 | 9 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 601816.SH | 京沪高铁 | | 601233.SH | 桐昆股份 | | 002409.SZ | 雅克科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 600276.SH | 恒瑞医药 | | 688085.SH | 三友医疗 | | 600861.SH | 北京人力 | | 300395.SZ | 菲利华 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250911 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】8 月通胀点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。8 月 CPI 同比增速低于万得一 致预期，PPI 同比增速符合万得一致预期；8 月黄金和能源等国际价格波动 对国内部分产品价格仍有明显影响；关注物价的边际变化，一是核心 CPI 同 比增速持续小幅上行背后，消费品价格的结构性分化，二是"反内卷"政策 对部分行业供求结构的影响和部分耐用消费品价格的影响。 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 3.4 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In August 2025, CPI remained flat at 0% month-on-month, while PPI ended a consecutive eight-month decline, indicating a potential turning point for PPI [1] - Core CPI growth has rebounded for four consecutive months due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and regulating low-price competition, although overall CPI year-on-year growth fell to -0.4% due to food prices [2] - The PPI is expected to see a slow recovery due to a poor demand environment and market-oriented capacity governance, remaining in negative growth territory for the year [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The antimony supply is tightening as Polar Gold's antimony production is projected to drop to zero in the first half of 2025, leading to potential price increases in the domestic market [3] - Antimony prices have fluctuated this year, influenced by export policies and demand changes, with expectations of price increases if export restrictions ease [3] Group 3: Company Research - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) reported significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by accelerated international expansion and increased overseas revenue and cement sales [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Megachip Color (603062.SH) also experienced rapid revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with new business developments in wind power and marine coatings contributing to sales [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 270 million, 300 million, and 330 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining an "increase" rating [5]

8月CPI同比增速-0.4%，环比0.0%；PPI同比增速-2.9%，环比回升至0.0%。8月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪 周期影响下，食品价格对CPI形成主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心CPI同比大幅回升。反内 卷政策效果在8月PPI数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌回稳的迹象，同时 大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 报告导读：反内卷政策效果在PPI中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价格修复，传导效 果较为明显。猪周期拖累CPI再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处于稳步回升的通道。 食品拖累主要来源于猪肉和蛋类。猪周期处于磨底阶段，企业去库压力较高，加之8月高温天气需求有 所回落，导致价格出现明显回落。随着9月需求回升，猪价或逐渐走出低位。鸡蛋价格明显回落，产蛋 鸡存栏量处在高位，同时暑假期间需求回落，猪肉价格下跌也对鸡蛋需求存在替代效应。其他食品价格 均符合季节性。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通宏观研究，作者：韩朝辉 张剑宇 梁中华 风险提示：地产尾部压力依然存在、消费修复动能不及预期 注：以上内容节选自国 ...

[Music] Producer prices fell a tenth of a percent in August while expectations were that inflation would increase. We're still awaiting of course Thursday's CPI data to see how consumer prices fared in the month. But a positive signal to investors who are anticipating the Fed will cut rates next week. Ed Yardi, our Denny Research president, joining me now to talk more through all of this. Ed, it's great to see you. So, does this wholesale inflation number sort of confirm what we're going to get from the Fed ...

Let's turn out to rates dropping ahead of tomorrow's CPI print. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury uh closing back in on 4%. Economists expect consumer prices rose slightly more than they did in July with an annualized rate just under 3%.We did see a surprise drop in wholesale prices PPI in August this morning. The PPI fell by onetenth of a percent while consensus estimates expected an increase. So that was a nice surprise.So companies may not be passing on uh increased costs here. Courtney, how do ...

Um, while AI optimism is booming though, there are some concerns about the broader economy. JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond told our Lesie Picker, "The latest jobs data confirms that the economy is weakening, as he put it. That comes as investors turn their attention to a key inflation report tomorrow morning." Joining us now is Pollson Perspectives author Jim Pollson. Jim, we we did get another inflation report though, producer price index suggesting that wholesale prices not surging as much as people feared.So ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The rise in core CPI is attributed to effective consumption-boosting policies, with the industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy also seeing an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][4] - Food prices showed a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decrease, as the supply of food remained ample [3][5] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of 2.9%, the first reduction in the decline since March, indicating improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][4] - Prices in key industries such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing experienced a reduction in year-on-year decline, reflecting better market conditions due to the ongoing construction of a unified national market [5][6] - Emerging industries and technological innovations are positively impacting prices, with specific sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing seeing a year-on-year price increase of 1.1% [7][8]

国家统计局10日数据显示，8月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比持平，同比下降0.4%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.9%。 从最新物价数据中，能读出哪些信息？ 首先，是核心CPI继续回升。 统计数据显示，8月扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 "随着扩内需促消费政策持续显效，核心CPI同比涨幅连续第4个月扩大。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟说，除了核心CPI涨幅扩大外， 扣除能源的工业消费品价格涨幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，服务价格同比涨幅自3月份起逐步扩大，8月上涨0.6%。 近期，从中央到地方密集推出一系列促消费政策举措——财政部等部门发布两项贴息政策，从供需两端协同发力提振消费；江苏紧扣"苏超"赛 事联动举办1800余场相关活动，发放超1.4亿元惠民消费券；浙江聚焦文化旅游、体育赛事、夜间经济等重点领域全面激活暑期消费…… 6月28日，工作人员在泰州市海陵区万达广场"跟着苏超游徐州"徐州文旅（泰州）推介会上向消费者推介文旅商品。（汤德宏 摄） "今年以来，各地各部门从提升消费能力、创新高质量供给、优化消费环境等角度出发，多措并举提振消费。 ...