1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the commodity market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the CSI Commodity Futures Index rising slightly by 0.20%. Positive returns mainly came from gold, silver, and copper, while negative returns were mainly from rebar, rubber, and soda ash [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, potentially indicating that the PPI sequence is in the process of bottoming out and rebounding. Microscopically, the sector index trends reflect certain operational pressures in the steel and chemical industries [2]. - Investors should gradually reduce their reliance on fixed - income assets and practice the methodology of stock - bond - commodity asset allocation, increasing the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index has shown a relatively independent and excellent performance compared to overseas indices, but the recent increase in correlation needs attention. Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the commodity market presented a narrow - range oscillation. The CSI Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.20% annually, with an amplitude of only 10.27%. It was difficult to form a long - term trend, showing an inverted V - shaped oscillation after a strong start [9]. - Driven by frequent macro - events, the commodity market was repeatedly disturbed by policies and geopolitics. With the global economy still bottoming out, the demand side was weak, especially for industrial products. Three macro black - swan events occurred in H1 [12][14]. - There were two obvious characteristics in the commodity market: the significant differentiation between agricultural and industrial products, and the further differentiation within commodities due to different types of event shocks [15]. 3.2 Index Return Attribution 3.2.1 Roll Yield Contribution - The roll yield in H1 2025 was positive overall, at 1.07%, an improvement compared to 2024, possibly suggesting that the global economic growth is bottoming out. Most months had positive roll yields, except for March which had a large negative value [20]. 3.2.2 Sector Return Contribution - In H1 2025, the trends of industrial and agricultural products diverged. The agricultural product market had a small price increase and relatively low volatility, while the industrial product market had a large price decline and relatively large amplitude fluctuations. Agricultural products outperformed industrial products in most months [23]. 3.2.3 Variety Return Contribution - At the sector level, black and energy - chemical sectors mostly made negative return contributions, while precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products mostly made positive return contributions. At the variety level, gold, silver, and copper had large positive return contributions, while rebar, rubber, and soda ash had large negative return contributions [24]. 3.3 Macro - Micro Representativeness 3.3.1 Macro Level: The CSI Commodity Index Leads PPI by About 2 Months - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence is highly correlated with the PPI year - on - year and can lead by about 2 months. Recently, the commodity index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, perhaps indicating that the PPI sequence is bottoming out and rebounding [25]. 3.3.2 Micro Level: The Sector Index Moves in Sync with the Industry's Total Profits - The year - on - year sequence of the sub - sector index is highly correlated with the year - on - year sequence of the corresponding industry's total profits. The energy - chemical futures index is in the process of bottoming out, and the steel futures index is still finding its bottom [29]. 3.4 Comparison of Major Asset Classes - In the long - term, the commodity market has similar returns but lower risks compared to the equity market. In H1 2025, the commodity market's risk indicators were still better than those of the equity market [38][39]. - The current risk - free interest rate is quite low, and the investment cost - performance of bonds has declined significantly. Investors should gradually practice the methodology of major asset allocation and increase the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [40]. - Since 2024, the correlation between the commodity market and the equity market has been increasing. In H1 2025, the correlation remained relatively high, but it decreased rapidly at the end of June [43]. 3.5 Comparison with Overseas Indices - In the long - term, the CSI Commodity Index has obvious advantages in both returns and risks compared to overseas mainstream commodity indices. In H1 2025, it still had better performance in risk control [47][48]. - The correlation between the CSI Commodity Index and overseas mainstream commodity indices increased rapidly in early April and remained high in Q2, mainly due to the impact of the tariff shock [50]. 3.6 Application Cases - Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. Replacing half of the stocks in the traditional 40 - 60 stock - bond portfolio with commodities can significantly reduce the portfolio's volatility and drawdown while keeping the returns similar [54][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from July 7th to July 11th, 2025. It shows that the overall high - frequency index of fundamentals is stable, while different sectors have different trends, such as a decline in real estate sales, an increase in infrastructure investment growth rate, and a narrowing increase in export growth rate [1][9]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.6 points (previous value was 126.5 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.2 points (previous value was also an increase of 5.2 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.7% (previous value was 4.8%) [1][9]. Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.9 (previous value was 125.8), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value was also an increase of 4.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate drops to 57.1% from 59.0% [1][9][15]. Real Estate Sales: Property Transactions Decline - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 44.0 (previous value was 44.1), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4 points (previous value was also a decrease of 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 19.6 million square meters, down from 37.8 million square meters [1][9][29]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declines - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 119.3 (previous value was 119.0), with a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points (previous value was an increase of 3.0 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 32.7%, up from 31.7% [1][9][39]. Export: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The export high - frequency index is 144.0 (previous value was 144.1), with a year - on - year increase of 4.4 points (previous value was an increase of 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The CCFI index drops to 1314 points from 1343 points [1][9][45]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Decline - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.6 (previous value was 119.5), with a year - on - year increase of 2.1 points (previous value was an increase of 1.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. Passenger car manufacturers' retail is 39,660 units, down from 95,374 units; wholesale is 38,757 units, down from 154,429 units [1][9][57]. CPI: Fruit Prices Continue to Decline - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value was - 0.1%). The average wholesale price of 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits is 7.3 yuan/kg, down from 7.4 yuan/kg [1][9][65]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value was 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 9,769 US dollars/ton, down from 10,047 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,587 US dollars/ton, down from 2,598 US dollars/ton [1][9][74]. Transportation: Flight Numbers Continue to Rise - The transportation high - frequency index is 128.8 (previous value was 128.6), with a year - on - year increase of 8.6 points (previous value was an increase of 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) is 14,401 flights, up from 13,985 flights [2][10][87]. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.8 (previous value was 160.6), with a year - on - year increase of 9.5 points (previous value was an increase of 9.6 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The soda ash inventory is 185.6 million tons, up from 178.9 million tons [2][10][93]. Financing: 6M State - owned Joint - stock Bank Draft Rediscount Rate Decreases - The financing high - frequency index is 231.5 (previous value was 230.9), with a year - on - year increase of 29.5 points (previous value was an increase of 29.4 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The 6M state - owned joint - stock bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91%, down from 1.01% [2][10][103].

智通财经7月14日电，印度6月份CPI同比增长2.10%，市场预估为2.25%。 ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: The US CPI and core CPI data will be released on Tuesday.What’s your prediction? https://t.co/gAlFX3Xk8B ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月13日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标运行稳健，消费表现相对较优 主要结论：高频指标运行稳健。 经济增长方面，本周(7 月 11 日)所在周国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 由正转负， 指数 B 季节性回落。从分项来看，本周消费领域景气有所回升，房地产领域 景气基本保持不变，投资领域景气有所回落，本周消费领域表现相对较优。 从季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后下降 0.14，表现基本持平历史平均 水平，指向国内经济增长动能运行稳健。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 7 月 18 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格上涨。预计 7 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 0.5%， 非食品价格环比约为 0.5%，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.5%，CPI 同比持平上月的 0.1%。 （2）6 月上旬流通领域生产资料价格定基指数继续下跌，中旬止跌回升，下 旬小幅上涨。预计 7 月 PPI 环比约为零，PPI 同比回升至-3.4%。 风 ...

2. 周二：①数据： 中国第二季度GDP、中国6月社会消费品零售总额、规模以上工业增加值。 美国6月 CPI、美国7月纽约联储制造业指数。加拿大6月CPI。②事件：1000亿元1年期中期借贷便利到期。国家 统计局公布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告。 国新办就2025年上半年国民经济运行情况举行新闻 发布会。国内成品油将开启新一轮调价窗口。欧佩克月报。美联储官员柯林斯、鲍曼讲话。③财报：摩 根大通、花旗。 3. 周三：①数据： 美国6月PPI，美国API、EIA原油库存周报。英国6月CPI。欧元区5月贸易帐。②事 件： 美联储官员巴尔、柯林斯、洛根、哈玛克发表讲话。英国央行行长贝利发表讲话。③财报：摩根 士丹利、美国银行、高盛、阿斯麦。 金十数据整理：下周重要事件与数据预告——美国CPI和零售数据、中国GDP和贸易帐 1. 周一：①数据： 中国6月贸易帐、货币供应、社融、新增人民币贷款、全社会用电量。②事件： 美国 总统特朗普计划就俄罗斯问题发表"重大声明"。国新办分别就2025年上半年进出口情况、金融统计数据 情况举行新闻发布会。 5. 周五：①数据： 美国7月一年期通胀率预期初值、密歇根大学消费者信心指 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Russia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 9.4% year-on-year in June, which aligns with expectations [1] - The month-on-month CPI for June rose by 0.2%, slightly below the expected increase of 0.23% [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.52%, Nasdaq down 0.02%, and S&P 500 down 0.30% as of the report [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with NIO rising over 9% and Meituan, Xpeng Motors, and Kingsoft Cloud increasing over 1%, while Tencent Music, Bilibili, and Beike fell over 1% and Beike dropped over 3% [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - The CEO of Barrick Gold expressed optimism about the long-term prospects of copper despite short-term price fluctuations caused by US tariffs, noting that COMEX copper futures reached a historical high while LME copper prices fell over 2% [2] Group 3: Company Developments - Tesla announced the opening of its first experience center in India on July 15, marking its official entry into the Indian market, showcasing popular models like Model 3 and Model Y [6] - Salia reported a 50% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of the fiscal year 2025, reaching 7.7 billion yen, exceeding market expectations, driven by low prices attracting more customers [7]

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a four-month decline, primarily due to a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices[9] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point expansion from the previous month[9] - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with some industry prices stabilizing, influenced by seasonal declines in raw material manufacturing[12] Market Trends - The major domestic indices showed mixed performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.8% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.4% over the past week[20] - The trading volume in the two markets is projected to reach 5,000 billion yuan by March 2025, indicating a steady increase in market activity[27] Commodity Insights - Gold prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and anticipated continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may enhance inflation expectations[17] - Copper prices are supported by strong demand growth exceeding 10% in the first half of the year, with supply growth expected to decline to below 1% for the year[19]

智通财经7月11日电，法国6月CPI同比增长1%，预期0.9%；6月CPI环比增长0.4%，预期0.3%。 ...