中美经贸博弈再升级，今日A股主要指数早盘集体大跌，但尾盘回升收窄跌幅；截至收盘，沪指跌 0.19%报3889点，尾盘一度接近收复全日跌幅，深证成指跌0.93%，创业板指跌1.11%，科创50指数逆市 涨1.4%。全市场成交额2.37万亿元，较前一交易日缩量1599亿元，超3600股下跌。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | NW | 3889.50 | -7.53 -0.19% | | | 000001 | | | | | | 深证成指 | M | 13231.47 | -123.95 -0.93% | | | 399001 | | | | | | 创业板指 | My M | 3078.76 | -34.50 -1.11% | | | 399006 | | | | | | 北证50 | My was | 1487.41 | -19.49 -1.29% | | | 899050 | | | | | | 科创50 | 14 1413.02 | | +20.34 +1.40% | | | 000688 | | | | ...

Trade Tensions and Market Outlook - Current market consensus suggests that a 100% tariff is unlikely to be implemented, with a return to TACO trading expected, making it a matter of time[4] - If the trade war escalates beyond current expectations, technology sectors may experience short-term declines but could recover as market volatility decreases[4] - A barbell strategy focusing on technology (AI/innovative drugs/self-sufficiency) and dividends is recommended for Hong Kong stocks[4] Stock Market Adjustments - Short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks are anticipated due to emotional market fluctuations, but declines are expected to be less severe than in April[4] - Potential risks include the higher current position of U.S. stocks, which may make them more sensitive to negative news[4] Commodity Price Movements - Copper prices have seen significant pressure, with a notable decline due to tariff threats, while other non-ferrous metals are less affected[5] - Aluminum prices have shown resilience but may face downward pressure if trade tensions escalate further[6] Supply Chain and Shipping Impacts - China's countermeasures against U.S. tariffs are expected to have limited impact on European shipping routes but may increase costs for U.S. shipping lines[7] - Oil prices are projected to face a potential decline of 5-6% due to increased inventory levels and market sentiment[7] Industrial and Agricultural Products - The trade war's impact on agricultural products is mixed, with soybeans and certain fresh produce remaining strong, while cotton is expected to weaken[8] - Industrial silicon is anticipated to see a price drop of 4-5% due to high inventory levels and an oversupply situation[13]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a decline of over 3.5%, with tech stocks and pharmaceutical shares broadly falling, while the rare earth sector saw significant gains [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) mirrored the index's downturn, with most holdings declining, except for a few like Kingsoft, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and SMIC which saw increases [1] - Recent external disturbances may lead to short-term emotional impacts on the market, but there is considerable expectation regarding TACO transactions, with analysts suggesting that the current tariff issues are more political posturing than substantive policy changes [1] Group 2 - As of October 10, the latest valuation (PETTM) of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) was 23.82 times, which is approximately 34.04% below its historical average, indicating it remains in a relatively undervalued range [2] - The ETF's characteristics of high elasticity and growth potential suggest it has significant upward momentum, making it an attractive option for investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account to access core Chinese AI assets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the escalation of US-China trade tensions, particularly the announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods and new export controls on key software products, has led to significant volatility in global markets [1] - The Chinese stock market experienced a downward trend, with major indices falling over 1% and the Hang Seng Index dropping more than 3% [1] - The A-share market saw a decline in the innovative drug sector, with notable drops in companies like Hengrui Medicine and WuXi AppTec [1][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market also faced declines in innovative drugs, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) experiencing a drop of over 10% for leading stocks [3] - Despite the downturn, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) showed strong buying interest, accumulating over 680 million yuan in inflows over the past 20 days [3] - East Wu Securities believes that the impact of tariff policies on China's pharmaceutical industry is limited, as the market had already anticipated the drug tariffs [5] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that many Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies utilize licensing and new overseas company models, which are not affected by tariffs as they involve intellectual property transactions rather than physical drug exports [6] - The CRO (Contract Research Organization) services are not impacted by tariffs, and the long-term competitiveness of China's CRO/CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) remains intact [6] - The report suggests that the medical device sector is minimally affected by tariffs, with a positive outlook for domestic substitution and self-control [6] Group 4 - The fund manager of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) noted that macro geopolitical factors have become significant in pricing the innovative drug sector, leading to increased volatility in stock prices [7] - The market is expected to eventually return to fundamentals, considering the interconnectedness of the US and Chinese biopharmaceutical industries [7] - The TACO trading strategy, which bets on Trump's tendency to back down from threats, is highlighted as a potential investment approach during market downturns [7] Group 5 - Investment strategies suggested include focusing on innovative drugs, leading pharmaceutical companies, and medical leaders, with specific ETFs recommended for each category [7] - The medical ETF has the largest scale in the market at 26.4 billion yuan, while the drug ETF is the only one tracking the China Pharmaceutical Index [8]

10月10日，特朗普在社交平台表示，美国将自11月1日起对中国商品征收额外的100%关税，并对关键软 件实施出口管制。特朗普的推文同时引发全球大类资产波动，股债汇齐跌。 不过，在经历了4月份"对等关税"冲击之后，市场已形成了学习效应，不少观点判断这大概率又是一次 典型的"TACO交易"。所谓"TACO交易"，是华尔街流行的面对特朗普政府关税威胁的策略，指的是在 特朗普的关税威胁导致市场下跌时，投资者便押注他最终会退缩，股市将反弹，投资者通过逢低买入而 获利。 今日早盘，三大指数均低开，随后跌幅收窄，截至午间，沪指跌1.3%，深成指跌2.56%，创业板指跌 3%。从早盘表现来看，虽然市场出现一定幅度的震荡，但并未复制4月7日的暴跌行情（沪指跌7.34%、 深成指跌9.66%、创业板指跌12.5%）。 板块方面，金属新材料、贵金属、军工装备等涨幅居前，九菱科技（920505.BJ）最高涨幅超24%，银 河磁体（300127.SZ）、新莱福（301323.SZ）20cm涨停；安泰科技（000969.SZ）、包钢股份 （600010.SH）亦涨停，奔朗新材（920807.BJ）、西磁科技（920061.BJ）等跟涨。 ...

来源：滚动播报 TACO交易再次上演。中重稀土、超硬材料、锂电池……中方上周一连串贸易反制重锤，彻底打乱了特 朗普政府阵脚。就在情绪化重启对华关税讹诈两天后，特朗普当地时间10月12日又释放出愿与中国达成 协议平息紧张局势的信号。 他在社交媒体上发文称"不要担心中国，一切都会好起来的"，此后美国股 指期货当晚出现上扬。同日，美国副总统万斯在福克斯新闻中称，希望中国"选择理性之路"。 TACO 是"特朗普总是退缩"的英文缩写，常被用以戏谑特朗普在政策执行中表现出反复无常和最终妥协的倾 向。 （观察者网） ...

Group 1: Market Reaction to Tariff Announcements - The A-share market showed expected performance with initial declines, but did not replicate the significant drop seen on April 7, where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.34% [1] - Major indices opened lower but narrowed losses by midday, with the Shanghai Composite down 1.3%, Shenzhen Component down 2.56%, and ChiNext down 3% [1] - The market has developed a learning effect from previous tariff announcements, leading to speculation that this could be another typical "TACO trade" scenario, where investors bet on a market rebound following initial declines [1][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Sectors such as new materials, precious metals, and military equipment saw significant gains, with Jiuling Technology rising over 24% and several other stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Despite the gains in certain sectors, some investors expressed concerns about the overall risks in the A-share market that need further observation [2] Group 3: Company Responses to Tariff Changes - Companies like Xiangxin Home (匠心家居) are actively monitoring and interpreting the new tariff policies, indicating a proactive approach to adapt to changes [6] - Rui Ming Technology (锐明技术) reported that its revenue from the U.S. market is decreasing, and its new manufacturing center in Vietnam will help mitigate tariff impacts [6] - Pharmaceutical companies such as Huadong Medicine (华东医药) and Qizheng Tibetan Medicine (奇正藏药) indicated that the impact of the new tariffs on their businesses is limited due to low export ratios to the U.S. or existing production bases in the U.S. [7] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments by Companies - Companies have developed comprehensive strategies to cope with trade tensions, including diversifying production locations and reducing reliance on the U.S. market [7][8] - Guan Sheng Co. (冠盛股份) mentioned that its Malaysian factory is exporting products to North America, despite higher costs compared to domestic production, indicating a strategic shift to maintain competitiveness [8]

（原标题：港股异动 | 港交所(00388)午前跌超4% 灰犀牛事件导致市场波动加大 港交所下月初将发布三 季报） 瑞银发布研报称，港交所将于下月初公布今年第三季业绩，目前预测季度收入及纯利将按年增长43%及 53%，达到77亿及48亿元，再创新高。瑞银的预测较市场普遍预期高出8%及11%。该行因应市场气氛情 况及南下资金参与度上升，将2025至2027年日均成交额预测上调9%至16%，并将港交所每股盈利预测 上调7%至12%，目标价485港元，评级"中性"。 智通财经APP获悉，港交所(00388)午前跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.68%，报423.8港元，成交额36.23亿港 元。 华泰证券发布研报称，灰犀牛事件导致市场波动加大；短期资金和情绪还有释放空间，"TACO"交易需 要分批进行。银河证券发布研报称，短期内，中美贸易摩擦升级导致投资者风险偏好下降，带动港股估 值回调。但在国内稳增长政策支持下，以及中长期资金稳股市举措影响下，投资者情绪有望逐渐稳定。 当前港股估值整体处于历史中高水平，预计未来港股市场或宽幅震荡。 ...

瑞银发布研报称，港交所将于下月初公布今年第三季业绩，目前预测季度收入及纯利将按年增长43%及 53%，达到77亿及48亿元，再创新高。瑞银的预测较市场普遍预期高出8%及11%。该行因应市场气氛情 况及南下资金参与度上升，将2025至2027年日均成交额预测上调9%至16%，并将港交所每股盈利预测 上调7%至12%，目标价485港元，评级"中性"。 港交所(00388)午前跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.68%，报423.8港元，成交额36.23亿港元。 华泰证券发布研报称，灰犀牛事件导致市场波动加大；短期资金和情绪还有释放空间，"TACO"交易需 要分批进行。银河证券发布研报称，短期内，中美贸易摩擦升级导致投资者风险偏好下降，带动港股估 值回调。但在国内稳增长政策支持下，以及中长期资金稳股市举措影响下，投资者情绪有望逐渐稳定。 当前港股估值整体处于历史中高水平，预计未来港股市场或宽幅震荡。 ...

Group 1: Short-term Consensus - Trump's new tariff threat of 100% on all Chinese products starting November 1 has significantly increased market risk aversion, leading to declines in equities, industrial commodities, and cryptocurrencies, while gold and U.S. Treasuries rose[3] - The market consensus is that this is a maximum pressure strategy before the APEC summit at the end of October, indicating that the trend has not changed[4] - The overall economic impact is expected to be limited, with China's GDP growth target of 5% and a potential 5.2% growth in the first three quarters suggesting minimal macro policy adjustments before early November[4] Group 2: Long-term Competition - The trade war may signal the beginning of a decoupling between China and the U.S., entering a new cycle of fiscal expansion[4] - The shift from short-term TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading to long-term confrontation is anticipated, with increased policy maneuverability in key sectors under the "high-quality development" strategy[5] - The potential for renewed TACO trading in early November could present opportunities in safe-haven assets, while risk assets may offer buying opportunities after adjustments[31]