Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to central bank dynamics. In the context of the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market remained stable, and the bond market yield showed certain fluctuations. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it will not change the rhythm of monetary policy, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may remain in a volatile pattern. It is not advisable to chase high in operations, and long positions should wait for pullbacks to be established [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - On Monday, bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow fluctuations in the morning and a decline in the afternoon, resulting in a narrowing of gains. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. Open - market reverse repurchases were 13.78 billion yuan, with a net investment of 13.78 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Intra - day News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export control of rare earths and other items is not a ban on exports, and hopes that the US will correct its mistakes and return to the right track of dialogue and negotiation. - Vance said that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China, and he had a conversation with Trump over the weekend. Trump "cherishes" friendship with China, and both hope not to use more bargaining chips against China [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - In the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market opened above 3800 points and closed slightly lower, maintaining a range - bound pattern. Bond yields decreased compared to Friday but increased compared to Saturday. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it won't change the monetary policy rhythm, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may not break out of the volatile pattern. It's not advisable to chase high, and long positions should wait for pullbacks [3] 3.4 Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 13 Price | 2025 - 10 - 10 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 13 Position (Hands) | 2025 - 10 - 10 Position (Hands) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.366 | 102.352 | 0.014 | 74436 | 74447 | - 11 | | TF2512 | 105.665 | 105.655 | 0.01 | 147179 | 145873 | 1306 | | T2512 | 108.05 | 107.96 | 0.09 | 252554 | 250716 | 1838 | | TL2512 | 114.37 | 114.02 | 0.35 | 172579 | 173374 | - 795 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0017 | - 0.0385 | 0.0402 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.001 | - 0.058 | 0.059 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.082 | 0.031 | 0.051 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3522 | 0.2355 | 0.1167 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 31658 | 30556 | 1102 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 60280 | 50839 | 9441 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 85927 | 68299 | 17628 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 124744 | 108237 | 16507 | | | | [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation is being compared to previous events, particularly the "TACO trading" model, suggesting that recent declines may present buying opportunities rather than a repeat of the severe adjustments seen in April [3][10][13]. Market Analysis - The VIX index has risen to 21.7, indicating increased volatility, but remains significantly lower than the 60 level observed in April [1]. - The market's response to recent tensions is characterized by a more measured approach, with a focus on avoiding extreme reactions [4][13]. - Historical patterns suggest that short-term declines often provide favorable buying points, as seen in previous TACO trading scenarios [10][11]. Valuation Concerns - Current valuations are notably higher compared to April, with technology stocks and major indices reflecting increased price levels, which may limit upward potential [18][20]. - The average valuation for Chinese technology and consumer leaders is currently at 20 times earnings, up from 18.8 times before the tariff discussions in April [18]. Tactical Approaches - Different institutions have varying views on investment strategies, with some advocating for defensive sectors like dividends and others suggesting aggressive positions in technology and semiconductor industries [24][26][28]. - The market is expected to experience short-term volatility due to profit-taking and high valuations, which may affect investor sentiment [20][29]. Sector Recommendations - Defensive sectors may attract short-term capital due to risk aversion, while long-term prospects remain strong for industries like rare earths, domestic substitutes, and military-related sectors [24][25]. - Specific recommendations include focusing on AI computing chips and semiconductor equipment as potential investment opportunities if prices decline significantly [26].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.19% at 3889.50 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.93% at 13231.47 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.11% at 3078.76 points, despite a significant rebound in technology stocks [2][4][8]. Market Performance - The market showed a rebound trend, primarily driven by technology stocks that had previously attracted significant capital [4]. - The banking sector acted as a stabilizing force, with the highest intraday gain reaching approximately 1.28%, but closing at a narrower gain of 0.86%. City commercial banks were the main contributors to the rise, while most state-owned and joint-stock banks remained relatively weak [5][6]. Trading Dynamics - The concept of "TACO trading," influenced by Trump's unpredictable statements, was evident in today's market behavior, where investors prepared based on historical trends [3]. - The market opened significantly lower, which led to a surge in bottom-fishing funds, pushing indices back up to a certain level before a slight retreat occurred in the afternoon [3][5]. Sector Analysis - Key performing sectors included "domestic substitution" concepts and precious metals, with notable performances in lithium batteries, energy metals, and software development [5]. - The software development sector saw a strong opening due to regulatory requirements for foreign companies, indicating a shift in market focus [5]. Volume and Capital Flow - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 160 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with a notable drop in volume during the afternoon session [6]. - There was a net outflow of 46.1 billion yuan in main capital, primarily concentrated in the morning, while afternoon flows stabilized with slight inflows [6]. Broader Market Context - The Hang Seng Index mirrored A-share trends, with a maximum intraday drop of 3.63% and a closing decline of 1.52% [7]. - The Nasdaq futures showed a significant rebound, indicating potential recovery in the U.S. market, which could influence A-share sentiment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute, highlighting that despite previous concerns about export declines, China's import and export growth has shown resilience in the first three quarters of the year, with a notable increase in trade volume and a shift in export dynamics towards other markets [2][5]. Trade Data Summary - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's total import and export volume reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with exports at 19.95 trillion yuan (up 7.1%) and imports at 13.66 trillion yuan (down 0.2%) [2]. - The monthly trade data for September showed a total of 4.04 trillion yuan in imports and exports, reflecting an 8% growth [2]. Recent Developments in Trade Policies - On October 3, the U.S. Customs announced high port fees for Chinese-owned vessels starting October 14, and on October 7, the U.S. House of Representatives prepared to impose export restrictions on China regarding lithography equipment [2]. - On October 10, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and Customs implemented export controls on certain rare earth materials and lithium battery components, effective November 8 [3]. Impact of Tariffs - President Trump announced on October 10 that starting November 1, a 100% additional tariff would be imposed on all imports from China, potentially raising the effective tariff rate on some goods to over 150% [3]. - The additional tariffs will affect a wide range of products, including consumer electronics, machinery, textiles, toys, and agricultural products, covering nearly the entire trade volume between the U.S. and China [3]. Export Trends and Market Reactions - Despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S., China's exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America have seen rapid growth, contributing to overall export resilience [5]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 12.07 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 9.6% and accounting for 60.5% of total exports [5]. Economic Analysis - The chief economist from Yuekai Securities noted that the increase in import growth, which turned positive in June, has been a key driver for overall trade growth, countering earlier negative trends due to falling commodity prices and insufficient domestic demand [4]. - The article suggests that the current trade tensions differ from previous ones due to the specific targeting of China and the nature of the tariffs, which are seen as retaliatory measures against China's export controls [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's psychological resilience has improved since April, with investors now more optimistic about potential negotiations and outcomes following the recent tariff announcements [8]. - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will not see significant volatility in trade data, as both sides have clearer demands and are likely to pursue rational resolutions to mitigate trade frictions [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent fluctuations in the equity market, particularly influenced by trade tensions and changing investor sentiment, with a focus on resource stocks and sector rotation [4][14][17] - The article notes that the recent trade conflict, particularly the threat of increased tariffs from the U.S., has led to significant declines in risk assets, indicating a continuation of the global tariff war that began in April [4][14] - It emphasizes the potential for style rotation in the market, where the performance of cyclical stocks may depend on specific triggers such as economic policy adjustments or geopolitical factors [17] Group 2 - The article provides a review of the equity market performance during the holiday period, noting that the market reached new highs but faced challenges in sustaining upward momentum due to weaker funding support [3][14] - It discusses the performance of various active equity fund indices, with the active stock fund index declining by 1.63% last week but achieving a cumulative excess return of 13.38% since inception [5][19] - The article outlines the positioning and performance of different fund categories, including value, balanced, growth, and sector-specific indices, highlighting their respective excess returns since inception [6][8][10][11][12]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed a recovery after a significant drop at the opening, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.19% and the ChiNext Index down 1.11%, while the STAR Market Index rose by 1.4% [5][6] - A total of 1,684 stocks rose, with 73 hitting the daily limit, while 3,634 stocks declined, indicating a mixed market sentiment [7] Sector Highlights - The rare earth sector experienced a collective surge, with companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit. This was driven by a significant drop in September rare earth exports to 4,000.3 tons from 5,791.8 tons in August [7][8] - Gold stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with West Mining and Silver Resources among those that surged, attributed to a nearly 3% increase in spot silver prices, reaching historical highs [8][9] Political Influence - Market performance exceeded expectations partly due to former President Trump's indication of potentially canceling new tariffs on Chinese goods, contrasting his previous threats of imposing a 100% tariff on November 1 [15][16] - Trump's comments about the U.S.-China relationship being "very good" contributed to a positive market outlook, although uncertainty remains regarding the final decision on tariffs [15][16] Economic Context - Analysts from GF Securities suggest that the current tariff threat is likely a typical "TACO trade," where short-term declines present buying opportunities. The current market environment differs from April due to clearer monetary and fiscal policies [18]

A股回升 10月13日，A股上午大幅度低开，随后一路回升， 沪指尾盘一度接近平盘。截至收盘， 沪指跌0.19%，深成指跌0.93%，创业板 指跌1.11%，表现最好的是科创50指数， 涨1.4%。 | 内地股票 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3889.50 | 13231.47 | 1487.41 | | -7.53 - - 0.19% - - 123.95 - - 0.93% - - 19.49 - - 1.29% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1473.02 | 3078.76 | 6304.08 | | +20.34 +1.40% -34.50 -1.11% -22.32 -0.35% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4593.98 | | 7376.56 5550.30 | | -22.86 - -0.50% - 21.66 - -0.29% - 27.36 - -0.49% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | ...

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks opened lower but rebounded during the trading session, with 73 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 10 stocks hitting the limit down by the end of the day [2][6]. Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth sector saw significant gains, with companies like Baotou Steel Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth experiencing substantial price increases. The rare earth ETF from E Fund surged by 7.78%, marking a 93.39% increase year-to-date, reaching a historical net asset value high [3][5]. - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain rare earth materials and equipment, contributing to the price surge. Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel Rare Earth raised their prices, with rare earth concentrate prices increasing by 37% month-on-month, the highest since Q2 2023 [6]. - Northern Rare Earth projected a net profit of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [6]. Gold Market - Gold prices reached a new historical high, with spot gold exceeding $4,060 per ounce. The gold ETF saw a 2.96% increase, with a year-to-date rise of 49.4% and net inflows exceeding 6.9 billion yuan [7][10]. - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has increased due to geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and political instability in various countries [9]. - Since the end of July, gold prices have risen over 20%, with a year-to-date increase of more than 50% [10]. Silver Market - Silver prices have outperformed gold, with London silver prices soaring above $51.5, marking an increase of over 40% since August and over 78% year-to-date [11]. - A liquidity crisis in the London silver market has led to unprecedented premium levels, making it difficult for short sellers to find physical silver for delivery [12][13]. Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - Recent comments from U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris indicated a willingness for rational negotiations with China, which may influence market sentiment [16]. - Analysts suggest that the current trade tensions may have limited impact on the economic fundamentals, viewing recent market adjustments as potential buying opportunities for quality assets in China [17].

中美经贸博弈再升级，今日A股主要指数早盘集体大跌，但尾盘回升收窄跌幅；截至收盘，沪指跌 0.19%报3889点，尾盘一度接近收复全日跌幅，深证成指跌0.93%，创业板指跌1.11%，科创50指数逆市 涨1.4%。全市场成交额2.37万亿元，较前一交易日缩量1599亿元，超3600股下跌。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | NW | 3889.50 | -7.53 -0.19% | | | 000001 | | | | | | 深证成指 | M | 13231.47 | -123.95 -0.93% | | | 399001 | | | | | | 创业板指 | My M | 3078.76 | -34.50 -1.11% | | | 399006 | | | | | | 北证50 | My was | 1487.41 | -19.49 -1.29% | | | 899050 | | | | | | 科创50 | 14 1413.02 | | +20.34 +1.40% | | | 000688 | | | | ...

Trade Tensions and Market Outlook - Current market consensus suggests that a 100% tariff is unlikely to be implemented, with a return to TACO trading expected, making it a matter of time[4] - If the trade war escalates beyond current expectations, technology sectors may experience short-term declines but could recover as market volatility decreases[4] - A barbell strategy focusing on technology (AI/innovative drugs/self-sufficiency) and dividends is recommended for Hong Kong stocks[4] Stock Market Adjustments - Short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks are anticipated due to emotional market fluctuations, but declines are expected to be less severe than in April[4] - Potential risks include the higher current position of U.S. stocks, which may make them more sensitive to negative news[4] Commodity Price Movements - Copper prices have seen significant pressure, with a notable decline due to tariff threats, while other non-ferrous metals are less affected[5] - Aluminum prices have shown resilience but may face downward pressure if trade tensions escalate further[6] Supply Chain and Shipping Impacts - China's countermeasures against U.S. tariffs are expected to have limited impact on European shipping routes but may increase costs for U.S. shipping lines[7] - Oil prices are projected to face a potential decline of 5-6% due to increased inventory levels and market sentiment[7] Industrial and Agricultural Products - The trade war's impact on agricultural products is mixed, with soybeans and certain fresh produce remaining strong, while cotton is expected to weaken[8] - Industrial silicon is anticipated to see a price drop of 4-5% due to high inventory levels and an oversupply situation[13]