行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

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USDA出口净销售报告：美豆净销量环比减少，但符合市场预期，后续价格走势如何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's growth report shows that as of the week ending June 22, 2025, the U.S. cotton good-to-excellent rate was 47%, down from 48% the previous week and 56% in the same period over the past three years. The decline in the good-to-excellent rate, unfavorable weather in the production areas in the coming days, and the spill - over effect of the rebound in crude oil prices have boosted the U.S. cotton futures market [2]. - Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season. Enterprises have poor performance in new orders, with limited overall growth in summer orders. Orders are mostly short - term and small, and some enterprises have reduced shifts and lowered the overall operating rate. Some spinning enterprises are in a state of inventory accumulation, with poor profit margins, which affects their raw material procurement. The old - crop fundamentals change little, and short - term prices are volatile. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang, and attention should be paid to the impact of the new - season cotton growth on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 38,534 lots, up 1,087 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 161 lots, down 97 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract open interest: 584,196 lots, up 24,084 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 21,614 lots, down 306 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 10,334 lots, down 45 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 2 lots, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,726 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,436 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S) arrival price: 21,924 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S) arrival price: 23,713 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,360 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 826,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton import volume: 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 563 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 21.12 days, up 0.14 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.54 days, up 1.37 days [2]. - Cloth output: 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; yarn output: 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons [2]. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1.3577737 billion US dollars, up 197.1179 million US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1.2631773 billion US dollars, up 5.2109 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 12.29%, up 4.36%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 12.29%, up 4.35% [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 6.47%, down 0.24%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 12.78%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - As of June 25, 2024, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2024/25 season was 30,121,873 bales, totaling 6.801796 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.77%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.43177 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.21% [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market sentiment is positive, with significant increases in commodity prices, particularly coking coal and polysilicon, both rising over 3% [1] - Agricultural products are underperforming, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal experiencing declines exceeding 2% [1] Group 2: Coking Coal - Coking coal futures have shown a strong upward trend, with prices increasing over 2% due to supply constraints from production cuts and increased demand from power plants [6] - The supply reduction is attributed to mine accidents and environmental regulations, leading to a noticeable decrease in coking coal availability [6] - Despite the positive demand outlook, some analysts suggest that coking coal prices may not experience significant fluctuations in the short term due to ongoing inventory pressures [6] Group 3: Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices are under pressure, with significant declines attributed to high inventories and a softening market for soybeans [3][4] - The current supply pressure is primarily linked to raw soybean stocks, with expectations for upcoming reports on U.S. grain inventories and planting areas [5] - Analysts suggest that while short-term pressures exist, there may be potential for price recovery in the medium term as import volumes decrease [3][5] Group 4: Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are experiencing volatility, with recent declines in price but a potential for market sentiment recovery [7] - The market is facing supply increases and a mismatch between supply and demand, leading to ongoing pressure on prices [7]

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 近期，玉米 7 月合约多空主力明显减持，多头主力移仓有限，获利了结加剧行情 | 震荡 | | | 波动。期货市场虽显疲软，但现货行情表现仍偏强，主流报价仍维持相对高位， | | | | 贸易商余货有限。深加工玉米收购价格处于高位。 华北地区玉米价格主流价格 | | | | 维持稳定，局部地区窄幅调整。山东深加工企业门前到货量车辆尚可，除了部分 | | | | 本地贸易商开始出货外，部分地区东北货源继续补充华北市场，深加工企业玉米 | | | 玉米 | 收购价格整体稳定，个别窄幅调整。 销区市场玉米价格整体稳定运行。期货表 | | | | 现一般，但产区玉米报价坚挺。销区港口报价暂稳，市场高价接受度有限，饲料 | | | | 厂现货多提前期订单，刚需补库，小麦替代优势仍较明显。技术上，玉米 7 月持 | | | | 仓向 9 月转移的过程中，多头移仓有限，受仓位调整影响玉米 9 月合约上行乏力， | | | | 9 月多单减仓离场，警惕价格持续调整。 | | | 豆粕 | ...

阿根廷农林渔业国秘处发布的月报显示，阿根廷 2024/25 年度大豆种植面积预估为 1780 万公顷，较 上月预估上调 0.6%，较上一年度的 1660 万公顷增加 7.2%。阿根廷 2024/25 年度大豆产量预估为 4990 万吨，较上月预估增加 1.8%，较上年度的 4820 万吨增加 3.5%。 Mysteel：截至 2025 年 06 月 20 日，全国港口大豆库存 783.3 万吨，环比上周增加 40.60 万吨；同 比去年增加 91.03 万吨。125 家油厂大豆库存为大豆库存 637.99 万吨，较上周增加 38.39 万吨，增幅 6.40%， 同比去年增加 91.56 万吨，增幅 16.76%；豆粕库存 50.89 万吨，较上周增加 9.89 万吨，增幅 24.12%， 同比去年减少 45.88 万吨，减幅 47.41%。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线调整 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。 ...

期货热点追踪 钢材产销两旺，铁水产量仍处高位，为何还是带不动铁矿石价格？ 相关链接 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-26 下游农需释放，尿素震荡走高 市场分析 价格与基差：2024-12-16，尿素主力收盘1719元/吨（-18）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1740 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1820元/吨（0）；小块无烟煤970元/吨（0），山东基差：15元/ 吨（-46）；河南基差：5元/吨（-46）；江苏基差：35元/吨（-36）；尿素生产利润126元/吨（0），出口利润-129元/吨 （-3）。 供应端：截至2024-12-16，企业产能利用率82.40%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为143.24 万吨（4.24），港口样本 库存量为15.50 万吨（-0.10）。 需求端：截至2024-12-16，复合肥产能利用率43.59%（1.67%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.10%（-0.44%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数7.18日（-0.88）。 伊朗以色列地缘冲突加剧，国际尿素价格维持高位。尿素开工高位运行，装置检修计划偏少，产量预计走高，供 应端压力较大。尿素下游农业需求追肥补货需求释放，工厂预售订单走高，但工业需求仍维持弱势，复合肥产 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 现货市场地域性成交有所好转 铅价突破万七关口 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-06-25，LME铅现货升水为-24.13美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16925 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至-35.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化200 元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16925元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化225元/吨至17025元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至10250元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10500 元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-25，沪铅主力合约开于17000元/吨，收于17165元/吨，较前一交易日变化210元/吨，全天交易 日成交36222手，较前一交易日变化1819手，全天交易日持仓15153手，手较前一交易日变化-4407手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17200元/ ...