Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of commodity market trends, highlighting price fluctuations, trading volumes, and capital flows across various sectors, including financial futures, precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and black commodities. Group 1: Financial Futures - The CSI 300 futures increased by 0.76% over the last five days and 21.76% year-to-date [10] - The SSE 50 futures rose by 0.39% in the last five days, with a year-to-date increase of 14.24% [10] - The CSI 500 futures showed a 0.95% increase over five days and a significant 38.67% rise year-to-date [10] Group 2: Precious Metals - SHFE gold futures experienced a slight increase of 0.15% over the last five days, with a substantial year-to-date gain of 52.53% [10] - SHFE silver futures saw a more pronounced increase of 2.06% over the last five days and an impressive 80.69% year-to-date [10] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - SHFE copper futures rose by 1.54% over the last five days, with a year-to-date increase of 26.21% [11] - SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.27% in the last five days, with a year-to-date gain of 12.87% [11] - SHFE lead futures showed a modest increase of 0.23% over the last five days, with a year-to-date increase of 2.64% [11] Group 4: Black Commodities - SHFE rebar futures decreased by 1.30% over the last five days, with a year-to-date decline of 10.59% [12] - DCE iron ore futures fell by 1.14% in the last five days, but have increased by 6.84% year-to-date [12] - DCE coking coal futures experienced a significant drop of 6.14% over the last five days, with a year-to-date decline of 26.28% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Wait for the inflection point confirmation and conduct range - bound operations for now [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, mainly in a volatile state [2][4] - Soybean meal: Weakly volatile, be cautious about the risks associated with the USDA report [2][11] - Soybean: The market is oscillating [2][11] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][14] - Sugar: Narrow - range fluctuations [2][18] - Cotton: Oscillating with a slight upward trend, pay attention to downstream demand [2][22] - Peanuts: Focus on the purchases by oil mills [2][27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,706 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 8,698 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.09%. Soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,230 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.44%, and the night - session closing price was 8,026 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.48% [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian official said that a special task force has ordered dozens of palm oil and mining companies to pay a total fine of 38.62 trillion Indonesian rupiah (equivalent to $2.31 billion) for illegal operations in forest areas. The US government will provide $12 billion in assistance to American farmers. Private exporters reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. As of December 5, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 90.3% [4][5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [10] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4,085 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 4,077 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.17%. DCE soybean meal 2605's closing price (day session) was 2,778 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.77% [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 8, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to uncertain Chinese demand and favorable South American weather. The USDA will release a supply - demand report, and traders are concerned about a possible downward adjustment of US soybean export forecasts. Brazil's crop outlook remains strong with expected widespread rainfall [11][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of - 1, and soybean has a trend intensity of 0 [13] 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,261 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.57%, and the night - session closing price was 2,242 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.84%. The closing price of C2603 was 2,232 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.59%, and the night - session closing price was 2,220 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54% [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, while Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices continued to rise, and North China's corn prices showed mixed trends [16] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [17] 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.82 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,420 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,337 yuan/ton [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of November, India's sugar production in the 2025/2026 season increased by 49.8% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20] 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,750 yuan/ton with no change, and the night - session closing price was 13,765 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.11%. The closing price of CY2603 was 19,980 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 19,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05% [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was dull, and high - basis trading was poor. Cotton yarn prices fluctuated slightly, and the full - cotton grey fabric market showed a differentiated situation. ICE cotton futures declined after an initial rise [23][24] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [26] 3.6 Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,068 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,076 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05% [27] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Henan, peanut prices were stable with a slight upward trend; in Jilin, prices were stable with a slight upward trend; in Liaoning, prices were basically stable; in Shandong, prices were basically stable. Some oil mills started purchasing on December 8 [28] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [29]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】周一（12 月 8 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.54%，收报 3924.08 点；深证成指涨 1.39%， 收报 13329.99 点；创业板指涨 2.60%，收报 3190.27 点。沪深两市成交额达到 20366 亿，较上一交易日大幅放 量 3109 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 8 日强势依旧。收盘 4621.76，环比上涨 37.22。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 8 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1600.7，环比下跌 85.3。 12 月 8 日，焦煤加权指数弱势运行，收盘价 1062.9 元，环比下跌 70.2。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：首轮提降落地。本期铁水产量 232.30，-2.38 万吨，焦炭库存中性偏弱。利润方面，本期全国 30 家 独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 30 元/吨。 【胶】周一，沪胶波动不大震荡整理品种涨跌互现。夜盘，因空头打压沪胶震荡小幅走低。美国轮胎制造商 协会（USTMA）于 2025 年 11 月对当年美国轮胎出货 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货低位反弹，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，贸易商商谈为主。个别主流供应商报盘。12月 主流在01贴水30附近成交，少量在01-32有成交，个别略高，价格商谈区间在4630~4675。今日主流现货基差在01-30。中性 2、基差：现货4645，01合约基差-49，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货 ...

Commodity Index - The article discusses the performance of various commodity indices, indicating a focus on market trends and price movements [38]. Stock Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08 points, up by 21.27 points or 0.54% on December 8 [43]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99 points, increasing by 182.31 points or 1.39% on the same day [43]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4621.75 points, rising by 37.22 points or 0.81% [43]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 3190.27 points, up by 80.97 points or 2.60% [43]. - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1350.80 points, increasing by 24.69 points or 1.86% [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs and policy expectations, with the raw material side making concessions and profits gradually improving. The steel market may trade market expectations in advance, and steel prices will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot-rolled coil between 3200 - 3500. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel, downstream consumption, and potential steel-related policies from the Central Work Conference. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [3]. - For iron ore, the fundamental trading weight has slightly increased recently. With the reduction of industrial chain contradictions, the recovery of steel mill profits, and the strengthening of rigid demand for raw material replenishment during winter storage, the downside space for iron ore prices is limited. As the macro week approaches, the trading weight of prices on the macro side may increase [19]. - In the coking coal market, the marginal change in supply is limited, but the pressure on steel mill profits and the continuous reduction of hot metal production have deepened the surplus of coking coal. With coking enterprises actively controlling raw material procurement due to price cut expectations, upstream mines are facing inventory pressure, and short-term coal prices will remain under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, the immediate coking profit is repaired, and subsequent coke supply is expected to increase. As coking enterprise operations gradually resume, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the price cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills, and considering that the futures market has already priced in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts in advance, coke spot prices may face more than 2 rounds of price cut pressure [29]. - Ferroalloys face the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift downward due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the continuous reduction in supply and the low valuation of ferroalloys limit the downside space. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly. Recently, the market may be trading the policy expectations for December in advance, and the recent strong fluctuation of steel prices may slightly drive up ferroalloy prices, but the weakly fluctuating trend of ferroalloys is difficult to change [45]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost expectation is firm, without a trend of production reduction, the upward elasticity of valuation is limited. With the acceleration of glass cold repair, the rigid demand expectation for soda ash further weakens. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. The heavy soda ash balance remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory in the upstream and midstream restricts soda ash prices [60]. - In December, the expectation of glass production line cold repair has resurfaced, and the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), with the key being the Hubei spot and warehouse receipt expectations. In reality, although the cold repair has accelerated recently and the daily melting volume is expected to decline further, the terminal has entered the off - season, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high, so there is still pressure on spot prices. Attention should be paid to the destocking degree of mid - stream inventory [85]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On December 8, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3117, 3123, and 3164 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3290, 3291, and 3302 respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil basis and month - spread data also showed certain changes [4]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of 01, 05, 10 rebar to 01, 05, 09 iron ore were all 4, and the ratios of 01, 05, 10 rebar to 01, 05, 09 coke were all 2 [15]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 8, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 778.5, 760.5, and 737 respectively. The prices of some spot ores such as Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special remained unchanged compared to December 5, but decreased compared to December 1 [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 5, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 232.3, 45 - port desulfurization volume was 318.45, and the apparent demand for five major steel products was 864. Global shipments, Australian and Brazilian shipments, 45 - port arrivals, 45 - port inventory, 247 steel mill inventory, and 247 steel mill available days all showed certain changes compared to previous periods [23]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On December 8, 2025, the prices of various coking coal and coke contracts and their month - spreads showed slight changes. The immediate coking profit was 45 yuan/ton, and the import profits of different types of coal also changed to varying degrees [33][36]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron Data**: On December 8, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 24, and the prices of silicon iron in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai showed certain changes compared to previous periods [46]. - **Silicon Manganese Data**: On December 8, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 122, and the prices of silicon manganese in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou also showed certain changes [47]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On December 8, 2025, the prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1133, 1199, and 1254 respectively, and the month - spreads also changed compared to December 5 [61]. Glass - **Price Data**: On December 8, 2025, the prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1002, 1115, and 1176 respectively, and the month - spreads and basis also changed compared to December 5 [86]. - **Sales Data**: The daily sales rates of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed certain fluctuations from November 29 to December 5, 2025 [87].

Group 1: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal continues to show weakness, reaching a new low in the current phase, with domestic coal production slightly contracting week-on-week [1] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in mining activity, while import levels remain high, leading to sufficient supply [1] - Demand from coking enterprises is declining, with reduced purchasing enthusiasm and a drop in steel production, resulting in weakened real demand for coking coal [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - The photovoltaic market is experiencing an overall decline in demand, leading to increased sales pressure across various segments and early shutdowns for some companies [2] - The polysilicon inventory continues to rise, with a slight increase in warehouse receipts, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2] - Despite a reduction in production across the supply chain, the weak demand is expected to lead to further inventory accumulation [2] Group 3: Rebar Market - The rebar market is under pressure due to weak demand and reduced production from steel mills, with a slight decline in apparent consumption [3] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but the overall supply-demand situation remains weak, with cost support for steel products lacking [3] - Recent declines in raw material prices have improved profitability for some steel mills, leading to expectations of increased rebar production in the future [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 8, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like live pigs, low-sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while others such as coking coal and coke declined significantly. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing short - term risks and others having long - term upward potential [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on December 8, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Live pigs, low - sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while coking coal fell over 6% and coke fell over 5%. In the stock index futures, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, and in the bond futures, the performance varied [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper**: The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026. The price of Shanghai copper has been rising due to factors such as the increase in LME cancelled warrants, the anti - internal competition in the domestic copper industry, and the expected Fed rate cut. The supply is tight, and the downstream has some resilience. However, the downstream's ability to accept the price is insufficient after continuous price increases, so short - term small corrections should be watched out, and it is bullish in the long - term [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although CATL did not resume production as scheduled on December 5, the upstream production capacity is increasing. The production in November continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed down in December. The downstream demand has slowed down and is differentiated. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production in 2026. The end of the consumption peak season, concerns about demand, and continuous production increase have led to an oversupply situation. However, due to factors such as the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's expected rate cut, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is decreasing, and the downstream demand is general. The price of crude oil is oscillating at a low level. The start - up rate of asphalt will increase slightly, but the demand will weaken further. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, but the downstream demand is weakening. The supply is increasing, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is high. Although there are some policy boosts, it is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Coking Coal**: The price dropped by over 6%. The supply is under pressure from imported coal, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory transfer is difficult, and it is expected to remain weak in the short - term [20][21]. - **Urea**: The price dropped on Monday. The supply pressure is relieved due to the shutdown of gas - fired devices, and the demand for winter storage and other aspects still exists. It is difficult for the price to drop significantly, and caution is needed in trading [22].

研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月08日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升0.1个百分点至27.9%，较去年同期低了1.0个百分点，仍处于近年同期最低水 平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨， 减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于29%，受到资金和天气制约。 上周，全国出货量环比增加7.06%至28.06万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期 的最低位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不 大，里海管道联盟2号单点系泊严重受损，原油价格低位震荡。委内瑞拉Jose工业区发生火灾，20万桶/日的蒸馏装 置停运，不过美方对委内瑞拉军事威胁之下，稀释沥青贴 ...

2025年12月08日 周报 期货研究报告 PTA期货：供需维持偏紧，需求预期转弱 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周PTA盘面呈现4650-4800区间震荡偏强。周初日线破位冲高，之后回落调整。 上周PTA负荷持稳至73.7%。上周装置运行偏稳，独山能源、YS、川能等仍在停车；聚酯负荷有所提升至91.5， 环比增加0.2%，江浙织机周均开工率为71.3%，周环比下降0.4%。PTA供需维持偏紧格局。原料端：PX供应依 然偏紧走势偏强，PXN坚挺；原油走势震荡。原油不稳定和需求预期转弱导致PTA追涨动力不足。 2、PX方面：短期短流程开工支撑下对PX供应影响有限，但一季度随着部分亚洲装置检修预期下，PX供 应存收缩预期，中期供需好转预期下PX支撑偏强。PTA方面，近期PTA装置检修集中，当前聚酯工厂库存偏低， 短期聚酯负荷预计大幅下降风险不大，维持91%附近，但江浙织机负荷下降较多，聚酯需求预期走弱。故PTA 短期受现货支撑，逢低做多为佳，受聚酯需要预期影响，冲高后谨慎追单。 关注因素：1.聚酯开工率；2.PTA检修；3 ...