1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to remain in a high - level volatile market supported by cost, and it is recommended to hold long spreads. PTA is also in a high - level volatile market driven by cost, and long spreads operation should be maintained. MEG has limited upside space and faces medium - term pressure, and short spreads operation is advised [1][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7260, 5110, 3803, 6514, and 432.2 respectively, with daily changes of - 56, - 34, - 44, - 50, and - 3.9, and daily change rates of - 0.77%, - 0.66%, - 1.14%, - 0.76%, and - 0.89% [2] - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 894 dollars/ton, 5097 yuan/ton, 3678, 530.12 dollars/ton, and 60.98 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 363.88, 361.63, 120.64, 43.68, and - 4.34 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - **PX**: As of January 4, the domestic PX plant operating rate was 90.4%, and the Asian PX operating rate was 80.9% [2] - **PTA**: The PTA load was 78.1%. Dushan Energy's 250 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 120 - million - ton plant restarted at a low load, and Weilian Chemical's 250 - million - ton plant increased its load [3] - **MEG**: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan stopped for catalyst replacement at the end of December 2025, with an expected duration of about 2 weeks. A 615,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Kuwait plans to stop for maintenance on January 9, with an expected maintenance duration of about one month. As of January 4, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.73% (a 1.58% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to ethylene glycol was 75.86% (a 0.51% decrease from the previous period) [3][4] - **Polyester**: The operating load of large domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained basically stable, with the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn at around 75% (starting from January 2026, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn is 3.28 million tons). As of Sunday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 90.8%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of less than 40% as of 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% as of 3 pm [4] 3.3 Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - **Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 74%, the comprehensive operating rate of looms dropped to 59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of dyeing remained at 69% [5] - **Raw Material Stockpiling**: Terminal factories mainly consumed raw material stocks this week, and raw material purchases were mainly for new orders. The raw material purchase volumes of terminal factories varied widely. Currently, the stockpiles of production factories are concentrated between 1 - 3 weeks, and some with more stockpiles still have 1 - 2 months' worth [5] - **Orders and Prices**: New orders in the weaving sector remained weak, with some foreign trade and spring - summer new orders being slightly followed up. The inventory of grey fabric continued to accumulate. The prices of conventional grey fabric varieties declined locally, and the nominal cash - flow losses of grey fabric widened [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, while that of MEG is 0 [6] 3.5 Views and Suggestions - **PX**: With strong cost support, long spreads should be held. After the US air - strike on Venezuela on January 3, oil prices are expected to rise in the short - term, supporting the valuation of PX. The 1 - million - ton plant of Fujia Dahua restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for its planned start - up in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate is 88%. For domestic PTA plants, the processing fee of the 05 contract on the futures market has risen to over 300 yuan/ton. The 2.5 - million - ton plant of Xin Fengming Phase 1 and the 1.2 - million - ton plant of Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate is expected to remain at around 78% [6] - **PTA**: In a cost - driven market, the bullish pattern is difficult to disprove for now, and long spreads operation should be maintained. The situation of PTA domestic plants is the same as that mentioned for PX. The profits of polyester filament factories have been declining, leading to a decrease in operating enthusiasm, but the current decline in polyester operating rate is not significant. Coupled with the large - scale export of PTA to India in December, the PTA segment is still in a state of continuous inventory reduction [6][7] - **MEG**: Although it is affected by the rising valuation of oil and coal prices in the short - term, its medium - term trend remains weak, and short spreads operation is recommended. The domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level of 73.73%. The 200,000 - ton plant of Guangxi Huayi restarted. Overseas, plants in Taiwan, China (720,000 tons), Kuwait (530,000 tons), and Iran (400,000 tons) are under maintenance. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline marginally in January - February. The operating rate of polyester plants is 90.8%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is decreasing. The polyester load is expected to drop from 89% in January to 84% in February [8]

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光期研究 见微知著 煤化工策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 目 录 1、期货市场及产业链原料情况 2、尿素：1月供需双增预期，盘面坚挺运行 3、纯碱：基本面和外部因素博弈，期价坚挺运行 4、玻璃：1月供需两端继续博弈，盘面底部震荡 p 2 | 品 | 观 点 总 结 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 1、期货价格：12月尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，趋势先抑制后仰，截至12月31日收盘主力05合约报1749元/吨，月度涨幅0.4%。 | | | 2、现货价格：12月尿素现货价格偏强震荡，截至12月31日，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1710元/吨、1700元/吨，二者均较11月底上涨40 | | | 元/吨。 | | | 3、供应：12月尿素供应整体低位波动，一方面行业处于气头企业负荷下降周期，另一方面月内检修、故障频率提升。截至12月31日，尿素 | | | 日产量19.48万吨，较11月底的20.34万吨下降4.23%。1月之后气头企业负荷或逐步回升，但需关注环保因 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and a strong spot basis. Some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The short - term PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price increased, but the night - session opened lower and traded weakly. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with some buying support at low levels. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand structure will improve starting from March [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No specific content provided for a detailed summary. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures rose and then fell, spot negotiation was general, basis was strong, and some polyester factories restocked. Mainstream suppliers sold goods. The spot was traded at a discount of 40 - 55 to the 05 contract, with prices ranging from 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton. The current mainstream spot basis is 05 - 50 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 5105 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 39, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net long position, with long positions increasing [6]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: The price increased on Tuesday, but the night - session opened lower. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon, and some contract merchants replenished stocks. The overseas price also increased slightly. The recent arrival negotiation is around 444 - 446 US dollars/ton, and the end - of - January cargo is slightly at a premium [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3752 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 145, with the futures price higher than the spot price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Device Changes**: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart around the end of January. The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted, and a 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th [10]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price Data**: Includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and their corresponding futures prices, basis, and processing margins on December 30 and 29, 2025 [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Displays the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products over the years [41][43][46]. - **Operating Rates**: Covers the operating rates of polyester upstream (PTA, PX, MEG) and downstream (polyester, textile enterprises) over the years [53][55][57]. - **Profit Data**: Shows the processing margins of PTA and the production profits of MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) over the years [59][62][64].

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be moderately bullish [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously; aluminum advises increased observation; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish [1][17][23] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be moderately bullish; apples are expected to be moderately bullish; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs suggest short - term shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs suggest hedging on rallies for 02 contracts; corn suggests cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal suggests bullishness on dips for near - term contracts and bearishness for far - term contracts; oils suggest limited rebound and cautious chasing of highs [1][29][31] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products in different sectors. It analyzes the supply and demand, cost, policy and other factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on the analysis results. The market trends of different products are affected by multiple factors, including macro - economic policies, industry supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events [5][10][29] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The market mainline rotates rapidly, and the index may trade sideways. The follow - up trend depends on trading volume. If the volume remains high, the index may continue to rise; otherwise, it may face short - term correction risks [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous driving factors are fading, institutions are more cautious at the end of the year, and the market lacks significant driving factors. The market may continue to trade sideways before the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The core contradiction lies in the game between strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. Short - term trading should be based on range - right - side trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price oscillates. In terms of valuation, it is neutral; in terms of driving factors, there is no incremental policy in the short term, and the steel export is expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it is suitable for range trading [7] - **Glass**: At the end of the month, multiple production lines are expected to shut down, and the supply is expected to decrease, which may push up the price. Although the medium - long - term supply - demand is deteriorating, there are short - term speculation opportunities around New Year's Day. The price is expected to be moderately bullish [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but the current price is over - inflated, and the upward momentum is limited. It is expected to trade in a wide range at a high level. Pay attention to changes in spot discounts and inventory accumulation speed [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, but policy expectations are uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. Although the short - term price may be bullish, the upside space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to continue to trade in a moderately bullish range. Pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [15] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are supported by liquidity and are expected to trade in a range. The central price in the medium term has moved up. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold, and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to be supplemented by South American imports, and the demand is strong but the downstream production may decline. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level. Pay attention to macro data, policies, exports, inventory and upstream start - up rates [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: The "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation suppresses the price. The near - term contract may reduce inventory by lowering prices before the Spring Festival, and the far - term contract's upward trend needs to be verified by supply contraction [19] - **Styrene**: The short - term rebound is due to factors such as rising oil prices, but the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the medium - long term [20][21] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, the cost support may weaken, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to continue to trade sideways [21] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the compound fertilizer demand is supporting. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in a range [22] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. Both the mainland and ports are accumulating inventory [23] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient. The upward space is limited. It is expected to be weakly bullish, and pay attention to the support levels [23][24] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong after supply contraction. It is recommended to wait and see [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are adjusted downward in the 2025/26 season, and the ending inventory increases slightly. The price is expected to be moderately bullish due to stable consumption and policy expectations [26] - **Apples**: The trading of late - Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish [28] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term price rebounds due to supply - demand mismatch, but the supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress the upward space. The far - term price is cautiously bullish due to capacity reduction, but the industry cost is decreasing [29][31] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The medium - term supply pressure may be alleviated by large - scale culling, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. The medium - long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the upward space [32][33] - **Soybean Meal**: It is recommended to trade in a range, be bullish on dips for near - term contracts and bearish for far - term contracts [34][35] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and gradually close long positions. The medium - long - term fundamentals have certain positive factors [35][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices continued to rise significantly. The main bulls did not take profits but engaged in high - selling and low - buying at high levels. Recently, some production capacities have cut production, reducing supply pressure. The nickel ore price is stable, the shipping volume is affected by weather, and mines have a strong bullish sentiment. The ferronickel price continues to rebound, and the cost line rises. The stainless steel inventory has declined and is short - term affected by nickel prices. The refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Futures**: The nickel price is strong. Short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box [7]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: It is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend. Short - sellers should wait temporarily [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% change [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.23% to 27,200 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.36% to 30,750 yuan/ton [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased by 5.46% to 141,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai Russian nickel increased by 5.22% to 134,050 yuan/ton, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased by 6.68% to 142,100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Ferronickel**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - grade ferronickel in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,300 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade ferronickel increased by 1.65% to 925 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - grade ferronickel decreased by 25.5 yuan/nickel to 930.5 yuan/nickel, and the price of low - grade ferronickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 1.19% to 13,762.5 yuan/ton [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - The nickel ore price remained stable this week, and the freight rate was the same as last week. As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. In November 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. Mines have a strong bullish sentiment, and the shipping volume is affected by weather. The downstream ferronickel price has improved, and the bargaining power has shifted upward [15]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices continued to rise, and there was little receiving and shipping during the holiday. In the medium - to - long - term, the global nickel market is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. The traditional demand for stainless steel and other products has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. The import volume was 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.07% and a year - on - year increase of 40.86%. The export volume was 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.80%. The LME inventory decreased by 534 tons to 255,162 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 1,090 tons to 45,544 tons [21][28][31]. 2.4. Ferronickel Market Conditions - The ferronickel price continued to rebound. In November 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. The import volume was 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The inventory in November was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [41][44][47]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased this week. In November, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 1.82% month - on - month. The import volume was 112,100 tons, and the export volume was 405,300 tons. As of December 31, the national stainless steel inventory was 977,400 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous period [55][59][62]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 53.2% of the total new vehicle sales [72]. 3. Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. 4. Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price is stable and mines are bullish; ferronickel has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price rebounds and the cost line rises; refined nickel has a neutral impact as there is short - term production cut and reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains with high inventory; stainless steel has a neutral impact as the inventory declines and the cost rises; new energy has a neutral impact as the production data is good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [81]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the main nickel futures contract, the nickel price is strong, and short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box. For the main stainless steel futures contract, it is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend, and short - sellers should wait temporarily [83][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, last week the supply of PTA plants returned, and the downstream polyester load increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern of PTA weakened month - on - month. The activity of traders in the spot market decreased before the New Year's Day holiday, but some major suppliers were more active in shipping. The spot basis was strong. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - For MEG, recently, affected by gale weather, some ships were delayed. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable or slightly decrease at the beginning of this week. The polyester load has been running at around 90.8%, but the industrial chain transmission is poor, and the terminal load has still decreased locally. The demand - side support is general. MEG has seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near - month, and the overall intention of holding goods in the market is weak. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be sorted in a low range recently. Attention should be paid to oil prices and plant changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental analysis on Wednesday: spot negotiation was scarce, January contracts were negotiated at a discount of 40 - 50 to the 05 contract, with a price negotiation range of 5060 - 5130, and the mainstream spot basis was 05 - 46 (neutral). The spot price was 5097, the 05 contract basis was - 13, and the futures price was at a premium (neutral). PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days month - on - month (bullish). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The net long position of the main contract decreased (bullish) [5][6]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental analysis on Wednesday: the price center of ethylene glycol weakened, and market negotiation was average. At night, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and sorted, with little negotiation in the market. During the day, the ethylene glycol futures price fluctuated downward, negotiation was stalemate in the morning, and buying interest picked up in the afternoon. The basis of next - week's spot strengthened to a discount of about 126 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was little negotiation on this week's spot, with some low - level transactions at a discount of 155 - 156 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spot price was 3678, the 05 contract basis was - 125, and the futures price was at a premium (bearish). The total inventory in East China was 66.35 tons, an increase of 0.57 tons month - on - month (bearish). The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average (bearish). The net short position of the main contract increased (bearish). Recently affected by gale weather, some ships were delayed. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable or slightly decrease at the beginning of this week. The polyester load has been running at around 90.8%, but the industrial chain transmission is poor, and the terminal load has still decreased locally. The demand - side support is general. MEG has seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near - month, and the overall intention of holding goods in the market is weak. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be sorted in a low range recently [7]. 3.今日关注 - **Influential Factors Summary** - Bullish factors: a 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. Ineos' 1.1 - million - ton and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton plants restarted [8]. - Bearish factors: Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 1.2 - million - ton plant operated at a low load after restarting, and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plant increased its load [9]. - Current main logic and risk points: the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the futures price rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory [11]. - **Price Data**: includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 31, 2025, compared with December 30, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data [12].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/05 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 801 2150 2125 2385 2485 2355 2465 250 - 7 20 - 801 2145 2120 2370 2485 2355 2445 248 320 20 15 - 801 2150 2135 2345 2485 2355 2400 251 320 5 15 - 801 2182 2188 2355 2460 2315 2400 256 320 8 -30 - 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 - 1 -25 - 日度变化 0 28 5 -10 -10 0 30 2 - -7 5 - 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关注后续发酵，短期可能仍正常发货，另一边关注油的变化，甲醇现在高度有限是因为 其他下游不行，如果油把其他东 西带起来了可能打开上限。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息 ...

短纤：跟涨上游震荡偏强 20260105 瓶片：跟涨上游震荡偏强 20260105 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 短纤：无期货盘面价格指引，短纤工厂报价大多持稳，今日直纺涤短销售高低分化，截止下午 3:00 附 近，平均产销 57%，部分工厂产销：110%、150%、100%、20%、80%、40%、65%、0%、39%，30%。 瓶片：元旦假日期间成交以刚需补货为主，多集中在 5980-6100 元/吨出厂附近，多为明年一季度订单。 周日期货市场停盘，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳，部分工厂未报价。周末聚酯瓶片市场成交清淡。1-2 月订单适 量成交在 5980-6100 元/吨出厂不等，少量略高 6120 元/吨出厂附近，品牌不同价格略有差异。 2026 年 01 月 05 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6476 | 6500 | -24 | PF01-02 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 邝志鹏 策略摘要 玻璃方面，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显不足。库存压力依旧不 减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库情况产生。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。纯碱方面，产量虽有回升，但库存持续下降，产销情况良好。但考虑到纯碱后期仍有新增项目投 产，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，关注 下月节前备货情况，持续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 核心观点 市场分析 玻璃方面，12月玻璃期货主力合约2605呈现震荡下跌走势，截止12月31日，收于1087元/吨，全月下跌 83元/吨，跌幅7.64%。现货方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，12月国内浮法玻璃均价为 1090元/吨，环比下 跌3.45%，价格重心下移，以低价刚需采购为主。 供给方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，12月浮法玻璃产量479.53万吨，环比上涨0.73%，浮法玻璃产能利用 率77.33%，环比下降2%。 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨品种：无 需求方面，12月 ...