投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price increase of black - series commodities may not be sustainable as the main goal of the recent Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing sectors rather than supply - side reform in the upstream of black and building materials industries. The current real estate market is still bottoming out, and the black - series market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline further. Although it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend in the short term, it is in a long - term downward cycle [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Analysis**: The market misinterpreted the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a signal for a new round of supply - side reform in the black - series industry. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and the real estate market is still in the bottoming process. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand will weaken further and inventory is expected to rise slightly. Technically, there is significant resistance above the futures price [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [3]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the threaded bar main contract is 3063 yuan/ton, up 2.00% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3191 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded bar output is 221.08 tons, up 1.49% from last week; the hot - rolled coil output is 328.14 tons, up 0.28% from last week [3]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron ore output is expected to decline further due to the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, which exerts pressure on the futures price. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend, but there is significant resistance above [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [6]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 733 yuan/dry ton, up 3.46% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments are 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from last week [6]. III. Industry News - On July 8, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14403.69 tons, a decrease of 62.08 tons from last Monday. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1269.2 tons, an increase of 30.8 tons from the previous period [8]. - A new round of staggered production has started for Shandong cement enterprises, which will help balance supply and demand in the industry [8]. - From July 7 to July 13, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 18 ports decreased by 31% week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 26% week - on - week [8].

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250709："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/9 今值 | 指标 | 单位 | | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,215.00 | 2.11% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 285.00 | -170.00 | | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 38.00 | 10.14% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 38,385.00 -385.00 | 5.12% 1,630.00 | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | ...

展望后市，分析人士认为，情绪价值与体验消费精准触达当下需求痛点，其商业价值正在快速兑现，新 消费板块趋势性行情有望延续。 ● 谭丁豪 葛瑶 2025年新消费板块成港股关注焦点，7月8日老铺黄金股价盘中再创历史新高。消费逻辑正悄然发生转 变，供给侧改革成为驱动行业增长的核心引擎。同时，政策支持、消费倾向转变与产业创新三重因素共 振，推动新消费板块持续走强。 供给端驱动消费升级 7月8日，老铺黄金上涨4.54%，盘中股价触及1108港元/股，再创历史新高。今年以来，"港股三姐妹"中 的泡泡玛特、老铺黄金分别累计上涨201.96%、352.48%，蜜雪集团股价距发行价累计上涨166.17%；此 外，多只新消费标的表现同样亮眼，毛戈平累计上涨81.67%，布鲁可、古茗距发行价分别累计上涨 142.92%、178.67%。 中信建投证券纺服轻工及教育行业首席分析师叶乐认为，新消费业态的出现主要源于两方面因素：一是 消费行业投资逻辑正从需求端逐步转向供给端。过去消费增长多由需求拉动，而近年来需求端增速放 缓，市场更关注具备产品创新、技术创新能力的企业。这类企业能够通过创新开拓新需求，实现非线性 高增长。二是"95后""0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant surge due to the "anti-involution" trend, which aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote high-quality development [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 8, the A-share photovoltaic sector saw a broad rally, with stocks like Topray Solar and Tongwei Co. hitting the daily limit, while Daqo New Energy and Aiko Solar rose over 10% [1][2]. - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index increased by over 5% in a single day, and the photovoltaic ETF funds also saw gains of around 5% [2]. - In the Hong Kong market, the photovoltaic solar energy index rose by 6.17%, with companies like Shunfeng Clean Energy and Sunshine Energy experiencing significant increases of 30.43% and 15.48%, respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Response - The surge in the photovoltaic sector is largely attributed to recent government initiatives aimed at curbing "involution" in competition, as highlighted by various government meetings and articles advocating for high-quality development [5][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to eliminate low-price competition and improve product quality within the photovoltaic industry [5]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic demand for photovoltaic installations surged in May 2025, with a record addition of 92.92 GW, marking a 388.03% year-on-year increase [6][8]. - However, the industry is expected to see a significant decline in installation numbers following the rush to secure policy benefits, indicating a potential return to more sustainable levels [6]. - Exports of photovoltaic components have been lackluster, with a 4% year-on-year decline in the first five months of 2025 compared to the previous year [8][10]. Group 4: Material Supply and Pricing - The price of silicon materials, which significantly impacts the photovoltaic industry, is under pressure due to high inventory levels and low demand, with current production capacity nearing its limits [15][17]. - The average price of domestic polysilicon has decreased to 35 yuan per kilogram, reflecting ongoing challenges in the supply chain [19]. - The industry faces difficulties in achieving "anti-involution" primarily at the silicon material level, while other segments like silicon wafers and modules may see easier adjustments through capacity restrictions [20].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a collective increase, with significant gains in the photovoltaic sector driven by a renewed "anti-involution" trend aimed at promoting healthy industry development [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.39% [1]. - The total market turnover reached 1.47 trillion yuan, indicating strong trading activity [1]. - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) saw a notable increase of 5.9% [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has experienced two "anti-involution" trends, with the first occurring in late 2023 and the second currently underway, aimed at curbing unhealthy competition [3][4]. - The Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association has initiated self-regulation measures, including the publication of fair component costs and the signing of self-discipline agreements among companies [3][4]. - Recent government policies have emphasized the need to eliminate low-price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is currently characterized by significant homogeneity, with supply far exceeding demand; existing capacity is projected to meet demand until 2030 without supply-side reforms [4]. - Operating rates across various segments of the photovoltaic industry are between 40% and 60%, with polysilicon operating rates around 40% due to high existing capacity and inventory [4]. - The prices of photovoltaic components have seen fluctuations due to installation rushes, but are expected to stabilize as demand normalizes [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The main theme for the future remains capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon segment, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand across the entire photovoltaic supply chain [5][6]. - The photovoltaic glass market is stable, with leading companies holding over 50% market share; proactive capacity reduction measures are anticipated to alleviate inventory pressures [5][6]. - Technological advancements, such as the development of BC batteries and the reduction of silver usage in cell production, are expected to drive down costs and improve efficiency [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is somewhat cautious, and the black - related products are oscillating weakly. Steel prices are affected by factors such as the off - season consumption, production changes, and market sentiment. Iron ore prices are influenced by global shipments and iron - water production. Double - coking products are in a state of multi - empty game, and power coal prices are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils were 3061 yuan/ton and 3191 yuan/ton respectively. The national urban inventory of building materials was 375.07 million tons, a 1.29% month - on - month increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory was 174.22 million tons, a 1.87% month - on - month increase. The national building materials transaction volume was 96,000 tons. Building materials are in the off - season, with a slight increase in production and low inventory. Plate production has a slight month - on - month increase, and the current export remains high. The market lacks speculative demand, and the weak off - season demand will suppress steel prices [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures price of iron ore weakened slightly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 731 yuan/ton, a 0.68% decline. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port remained stable. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total of 29.95 million tons. The daily transaction volume of national main ports decreased by 8.14% month - on - month, and the forward spot transaction volume decreased by 13.13% month - on - month. In the short term, the iron ore price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been significantly repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Double - Coking Products - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures of double - coking products oscillated. The spot market of port coke was stable, and the domestic market sentiment improved. The inventory of the two ports increased slightly. The price of coking coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The expectation of domestic coal mine resumption is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. The iron - water production of steel mills is at a high level but shows a downward trend. The supply - demand of coking coal has improved slightly. The profit of coke enterprises is not good, but the downstream steel demand has improved. In the short term, the supply - demand of coke has improved slightly, and in the long term, it is still in a relatively loose pattern [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in unilateral trading, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of steam coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The procurement of chemical and platform large customers is stable, and some coal mines have balanced production and sales. The supply has basically recovered at the beginning of the month, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The upstream shipping cost at the port has increased, and there is a structural shortage of goods. The downstream rigid demand procurement has been completed in stages, and the coal consumption is expected to increase with the expansion of high - temperature areas. The high - calorie Australian coal has a price inversion with the domestic winning bid price, and the low - calorie Indonesian coal has obvious cost - performance advantages [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Suggestion to exit short positions and observe [2] - Coking coal and coke: Neutral, observe iron and coal supply trends [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral, expect short-term supply reduction and mild demand decline [2] - Glass: Neutral, short-term valuation is low, observe downstream demand recovery [2] - Stock index futures/options: Suggestion to hold long positions [4] - Treasury bonds: Suggestion to hold long positions with a light position [4] - Gold and silver: Expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [6] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate, observe futures delivery impact [6] - Edible oils: Expected to fluctuate weakly, palm oil may be relatively stronger [6] - Meal: Expected to fluctuate downward, observe North American weather and soybean arrivals [6] - Live pigs: Expected to continue rising [7] - Rubber: Expected to fluctuate widely [9] - PX: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [9] - PTA: Suggestion to short at high prices [9] - MEG: Suggestion to short at high prices [9] - Polyester bottle chips and polyester staple fibers: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is affected by short-term sentiment, but the medium- to long-term supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply-side news and production resumption, with weak downstream demand [2] - The steel market is affected by supply-side reduction measures, with mild demand decline and balanced supply and demand in the short term [2] - The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, with high inventory and weak demand [2] - The stock index market is supported by economic resilience and reduced risk aversion, suggesting long positions [4] - The treasury bond market has narrow fluctuations, suggesting long positions with a light position [4] - The gold and silver markets are affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and trade tensions, expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] - The pulp market has a weak supply-demand pattern, expected to fluctuate [6] - The log market has stable prices, reduced supply pressure, and balanced supply and demand [6] - The edible oil market has sufficient supply and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - The meal market is affected by soybean production and demand, expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The live pig market has strong price support and is expected to continue rising [7] - The rubber market has tight supply, weak demand, and high inventory, expected to fluctuate widely [9] - The PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester markets are affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with different trends [9] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Short-term rebound due to sentiment, medium- to long-term supply increase, demand at a low level, and inventory accumulation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Price increase due to supply-side news, production resumption expected, weak downstream demand [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Supply reduction expected, demand mild decline, supply and demand balanced in the short term [2] - Glass: No substantial positive factors, high inventory, weak demand, short-term valuation low [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Economic resilience supports the market, risk aversion eases, suggesting long positions [4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates are stable, narrow fluctuations, suggesting long positions with a light position [4] - Gold and silver: Affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and trade tensions, expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] Light Industry - Pulp: Weak supply and demand, cost support weakens, expected to fluctuate [6] - Logs: Stable prices, reduced supply pressure, balanced supply and demand, observe futures delivery impact [6] Agricultural Products - Edible oils: Sufficient supply, weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly, palm oil may be relatively stronger [6] - Meal: Affected by soybean production and demand, expected to fluctuate downward, observe North American weather and soybean arrivals [6] - Live pigs: Strong price support, expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Tight supply, weak demand, high inventory, expected to fluctuate widely [9] - PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester: Affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with different trends [9]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a rebound, with Liugang Co. hitting the daily limit and achieving five consecutive trading limits in six days, while other stocks like Taigang Stainless and Hualing Steel also rose [1] - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market and to govern low-price disorderly competition, which could lead to an orderly exit of backward production capacity, benefiting industry profit recovery [1] - The comprehensive gross profit of the steel industry is expected to increase by 52.45% year-on-year to 281 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, driven by the implementation of capacity exit policies [1] Group 2 - Longjiang Securities believes that the end of 2025 will be a critical node for the implementation of capacity reduction policies, with small and medium-sized private enterprises facing significant challenges to meet standards [1] - The "anti-involution" trend aims to clear out not only backward production capacity but also manufacturing and platforms with significant private enterprise participation, which are crucial for local employment and tax revenue [1] - The capital market exhibits a strong learning effect, with stock price reactions becoming increasingly anticipatory based on past supply-side reform experiences, suggesting that investors should seize policy opportunities early [2]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side adjustment in China is expected to be milder compared to the previous round, but may take longer and involve a wider range of industries[2] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand[4] - Historical experiences indicate that large-scale capacity reduction leads to a rapid decline in production factor costs and enhances the competitiveness of leading enterprises, ultimately stabilizing prices[5] Group 2: Demand-Side Measures and Consumer Confidence - Recent policies, such as birth subsidies and trade-in incentives, are being implemented to alleviate short-term financial pressures on families and enhance their willingness to have children[6] - Fiscal transfer payments are most effective in boosting long-term consumption when targeted at financially constrained households, as they have a higher marginal propensity to consume[7] - A stable and sustainable economic growth requires simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides, ensuring policy strength and predictability[8] Group 3: Asset Prices and Economic Impact - The interaction between rising asset prices and the real economy is still in its early stages, with recent "anti-involution" policies potentially improving fundamental expectations[9] - The ongoing expansion of active credit is crucial for maintaining a strong performance in equity markets, with a focus on the stability of financing balances across society[11] - Historical cases show that asset price increases can lead to recovery in the real sector demand, but also risk tightening regulations if bubbles form[10] Group 4: U.S. Economic Resilience - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June's non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, slightly above expectations[13] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable labor market[16] - Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly decreased, with anticipated cuts of approximately 54 basis points later in the year[17]