Group 1: Overall Market Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose, with the black - series leading the gains [1] - The CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.38%, a weekly increase of 28.55, a quarterly decrease of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.83% [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 futures had a daily increase of 2.05%, a weekly increase of 10.18, and a year - to - date increase of 12.91% [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The current volatility level in the overseas macro - environment is in a low - level accumulation stage. The "bad news is good news" logic may be coming to an end, and the internal volatility energy in the US is being accumulated, with a possible staged increase [7] - The US economic aggregate showed little growth, with a "K - shaped" structural characteristic. Government shutdown may widen the error and expected difference in inflation data. US regional banks are under pressure again [7] Domestic Macro - China's economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience, with structural highlights. Policy expectations were further strengthened, which is expected to boost physical work volume in the fourth quarter [7] - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year [7] Group 3: Asset Views - There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline [7] - In the domestic market, with marginal changes in policy, physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets that were under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7] Group 4: View Highlights Financial - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and rise due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles, with concerns about the crowding of small - and micro - cap funds [8] - Stock index options are expected to fluctuate as the overall market turnover declined slightly, with concerns about the insufficient liquidity in the options market [8] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment stage due to geopolitical and trade easing, and are expected to fluctuate, with attention to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8] Shipping - Container shipping on the European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward - driving force, with attention to the rate of freight - price decline in September [8] Black Building Materials - Steel is expected to fluctuate as its fundamentals have marginally improved, with attention to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8] Energy Chemical - Crude oil is expected to fluctuate due to increased geopolitical risks and challenges to Russian oil exports, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [10] Agriculture - Grains and oilseeds are expected to fluctuate. For example, soybean meal had a short - term rebound due to short - covering, with attention to weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market currently shows indifference to the new round of tariff threats from the United States, which may indicate a desensitization to tariff measures or that the impacts have been fully priced in [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - Tariffs are continuing to push up inflation expectations in the U.S., making it difficult for the market to further price in the Federal Reserve's rate cut potential [1] - Other countries' rate cut expectations have stabilized, contrasting with the U.S. situation [1] Group 2: Trade Data - Current trade data shows only a slight impact from tariffs, but this does not imply that tariffs have no effect; the impact may simply take longer to manifest [1]

韩国央行货币政策委员会今日宣布，维持基准利率在2.5%不变，并暗示宽松预期。韩元汇率 下跌，最低跌至1美元兑约1441韩元。韩国股市由涨转跌。 韩国央行暂缓降息 【导读】韩国央行宣布维持利率不变，房地产过热与汇率压力制约宽松空间 中国基金报记者 储是 10月23日（周四），韩国央行货币政策委员会宣布，维持基准利率在2.50%不变。央行并表 示其倾向仍为进一步宽松，尽管该行试图淡化近期降息预期。 行长李昌镛在会后记者会上表示，目前尚不清楚11月27日董事会下次制定政策时是否具备降 息条件。他指出，六位委员中有四位愿意在未来三个月内降息，低于上次会议时的五位。 李昌镛称，前瞻性指引从"5支持、1反对"转为"4支持、2反对"，反映出对金融稳定的更多关 注。宽松倾向仍在，但潜在降息的规模和时机已有所调整。 此决议延续了7月开始的暂停加息态势，此前该行自2024年10月以来已进行四次降息。 自2024年10月以来，韩国央行已累计降息100个基点，旨在缓解因前总统尹锡悦"戒严令风 波"及国际贸易不确定性对经济造成的冲击。然而，近期国内房地产市场再度升温，叠加韩元 兑美元汇率持续承压，显著压缩了进一步宽松的政策空间。 本周 ...

黄金方面： 隔夜黄金小幅震荡，抛盘明显减弱，市场情绪得到部分修复，目前市场并未给出黄金大周期见顶的信号，所以投资者慎言黄金 牛市结束。 从资金的角度来看，8月和9月欧美黄金现货ETF的资金流入是金价上涨的最主要驱动力，亚洲ETF的净流入并没有明显的增长， 反映出美联储政策转向后，欧美资金正在加速确认降息的幅度可能超预期。 从市场需求量来看，市场对黄金的热情持续高涨，过去四个季度，全球黄金需求总量约为1220吨，创下至少14年来的最高纪 录。主要买家为全球各国央行，也反映出各国央行在储备资产上的新动向。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，目前黄金上涨的基础依旧存在，降息预期将导致美元长期走弱，黄金则因此受益， 同时美元信用的不断削弱，使得各国央行必须增加黄金储备以对冲风险，这些因素决定黄金长期走势。 技术面：黄金日线收中阴线，跌幅明显放缓。1小时周期高点下移，低点水平，形成下跌中继形态的概率很大，短线可关注上方 4130美元一线的压力。 原油方面： 技术面：原油日线收中阳线，中线已经止跌，但面临前期低点和前期成交密集区域的压制，上行阻力很大，短线60.70美元一线 是多空分水岭，若站上则可能会进一步上探64 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar index may put pressure on precious metal prices, but concerns about a weakening US job market, potential future interest rate cuts by the Fed, uncertainty in China-US trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks, support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 948.84 yuan/g, down 38.05 yuan from the previous day and 18.45 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 87,610, with a position of 254,754, down 186 from the previous day and up 5,052 from the previous week [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,381 yuan/10g, down 378 yuan from the previous day and 600 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 2,347,356, with a position of -182,550 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,116.60 US dollars/ounce, down 21.90 US dollars from the previous day and 43.00 US dollars from the previous week; trading volume was 396,022, with a position of 357,370, down 4,708 from the previous day and 16,561 from the previous week [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 2.17 US dollars from the previous day; trading volume was -66,532, with a position of 122,583, down 3,620 from the previous day and 7,608 from the previous week [1] Important Information - The secondary lending market is in turmoil, and PrimaLend has filed for bankruptcy. The Fed is considering reducing bank capital requirements from 19% to a minimum of 3% [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, the second-longest on record. Unemployment may rise temporarily. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest [1] - The US has lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles and imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3,900 - 4,100 and resistance levels around 4,383 - 4,778; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 930 and resistance levels around 1,000 - 1,100; for London silver, support levels around 42 - 48 and resistance levels around 57 - 68; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 9,800 - 10,800 and resistance levels around 13,000 - 14,800 [1]

•财信期货：市场情绪趋于平稳后黄金依以逢低做多为主 •新湖期货：关注伦敦金4000美元以及伦银48美元的关键技术关口 •东吴期货：投机性多头头寸可能已过度累积，进一步放大了此次贵金属回调幅度 •盛宝银行：金银正在经历早该出现的调整，但大幅抛售后仍被低估 •MKS PAMP：经历了周二的抛售后，贵金属可能需要币预期更长的时间才能重新站稳脚跟 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，黄金和白银价格正在经历早就应该出现的调整，白银的大 幅下跌突显了这两种金属之间的流动性缺口，但两者在投资组合中的持有量仍然不足，反弹背后的结构 性驱动因素仍然完好无损。汉森补充称，在经历了年内迄今的大幅上涨之后，金银这两种金属都应该进 行调整，以防止形成泡沫，但从长期来看，对2026年黄金和白银走势仍持乐观态度。"推动今年贵金属 历史性上涨的事态发展并没有消失，并且可能会继续为不再超买但投资组合中仍不足的金属提供支 撑。"汉森表示。 MKS PAMP研究与金属策略主管Nicky Shiels在其最新报告中指出，黄金市场仅用30周时间就从每盎司 3000美元反弹至4000美元，远快于之前1000美元涨幅所用的周期。在她看来，尽 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin may lead to an escalation of Russian energy sanctions, causing the gold price to continue falling. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -2 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has significantly cooled. Despite short - term capital pressure making the gold price weak, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to trade concerns, government shutdowns, and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - Silver: Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin may lead to an escalation of Russian energy sanctions, causing the silver price to continue falling. The premium of Shanghai silver has rapidly and significantly expanded to 300 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment remains strong. With cooling trade concerns, the silver price, which follows the gold price, still has support but faces short - term correction pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $4116.60 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.49 basis points to 3.953%. The US dollar index fell 0.06% to 98.91, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1257. The basis of gold was - 2.31, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 87015 kilograms [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce. The basis of silver was - 13, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 57674 kilograms to 691688 kilograms [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The long - term upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged, but it is weak in the short term due to capital pressure. Today, pay attention to the closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, as well as speeches by members of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [4]. - Silver: The silver price, which follows the gold price, still has support but faces short - term correction pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: Closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Photovoltaic Industry High - Quality Development and Technology Standards Forum; South Korea's central bank to announce interest - rate decision. - 15:30: Swiss National Bank to release the meeting minutes of the September interest - rate decision. - 17:15: Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Woods, to speak on economic growth in northern England. - 19:00: Central Bank of Ukraine to announce interest - rate decision. - 20:00: Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane, to speak. - 21:00: Member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Dhingra, to speak. - 22:00: Fed Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision, Bowman, to testify on the supervision of financial regulatory agencies at a hearing of the US Senate Banking Committee, and possibly release the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in September. - 22:25: Fed Governor Barr to speak on "community investment" at a tax conference [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the long positions of the main players are decreasing [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the long positions of the main players are increasing [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: As of October 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 6.81% to 175,296, the short positions decreased by 8.20% to 68,493, and the net position decreased by 5.90% to 106,803 [28]. - Silver: As of October 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.56% to 362,840, the short positions decreased by 9.41% to 270,707, and the net position increased by 18.99% to 92,133 [31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; neutral on glass, suggesting a wait - and - see stance [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper, suggesting buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pullback; neutral on nickel, suggesting a wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][10][11][12][17][18][19][21] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, suggesting a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggesting a weak sideways movement [1][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on PTA, suggesting a weak sideways movement; bullish on apples and jujubes, suggesting a slightly bullish sideways movement [1][32][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting short - selling on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting a weak sideways movement; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting a low - level sideways movement; bullish on oils, suggesting a limited correction [1][37][40][41][42][43] Core Views - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. External uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs lead to a sideways movement. The stock indices are supported during important meetings, but there may be a risk of profit - taking after the meetings. The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations, and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] - The black building materials market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals. Coking coal and rebar are expected to trade in a range, while glass is facing weak fundamentals and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [7][8][9] - The non - ferrous metals market is affected by global trade tensions, supply disruptions, and demand expectations. Copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a strong position, while nickel and tin are expected to trade sideways [10][11][12][17][18] - The energy and chemicals market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies. Most products are expected to trade sideways, while soda ash 01 contract is expected to decline [22][24][25][30] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply and demand and Sino - US relations. Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways, while PTA is expected to decline slightly [32][33][34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals and seasonal factors. Pigs and eggs are expected to decline, while corn, soybean meal, and oils are expected to trade sideways or have a limited correction [37][40][42][43] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A - share market is affected by external policy uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term and is bullish in the medium to long term. Buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Government Bonds**: The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Supply recovery is slow after the National Day holiday. It has multi - allocation value, and range trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is undervalued, and the demand has recovered while the production has declined slightly. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level, and buying on dips near 3000 for RB2601 is recommended [8] - **Glass**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with rising inventory and weak demand. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is affected by global trade tensions and supply disruptions. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement. Buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs is recommended [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by ore prices, production capacity, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways at a high level. Buying on dips after a pullback is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term. It is expected to trade sideways. A wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven sentiment. They are expected to trade sideways. Buying after a full correction is recommended [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with high inventory and uncertain export prospects. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4600 - 4800 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by supply and demand and macro - policies. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight downward trend, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the pressure at 2450 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The market is affected by cost and supply - demand imbalance. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 6300 - 6700 [25][26][27] - **Rubber**: The supply provides some support, but the demand is limited. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight upward trend, and pay attention to the support at 15000 [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways at the bottom in the range of 1550 - 1650 [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. The inventory is high, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways with a weak trend. The L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6600 [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: The market is facing oversupply and weak demand. The 01 contract is recommended to be shorted [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and Sino - US relations are uncertain. It is expected to trade sideways [32][33] - **PTA**: The price is affected by oil prices and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4350 - 4600 [33][34] - **Apples**: The quality is declining, and the delivery cost is expected to rise. It is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested. The market is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - to long - term supply is high. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. Short - selling on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - selling on rallies and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are recommended [40][41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is affected by US soybean harvest and Sino - US trade relations. Buying on dips for the M2601 contract is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The price is affected by palm oil production, soybean supply, and rapeseed import. Buying after a correction is recommended [43][44][45][46][47][48][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, the push for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict by Europe has led to a sharp drop in hedging demand, but the fundamental support factors remain unchanged. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in the next week and December, and the medium - to - long - term monetary easing environment will continue. The global demand for gold allocation remains stable, and institutional investors are still optimistic about the medium - term outlook after the short - term sharp decline [3]. - For copper, the spot market atmosphere is average, downstream sentiment is low and demand is mainly for rigid needs. With the replenishment of domestic and imported supplies, the increase in spot circulation has led to a downward adjustment of premiums [18]. - For aluminum, macro data shows that China's core CPI growth rate expanded to 1% in September, indicating a mild recovery in domestic demand. Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, which is positive for aluminum prices. The market believes that the probability of tariff negotiation success is high. The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are stable this week, and the continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventory provides some support for aluminum prices. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate at a high level. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and prices are falling. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and has strong support at the bottom [37]. - For zinc, the fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Domestic smelting supply is stable, while overseas there are production cuts. The price spread has been widening due to inconsistent fundamentals. The domestic zinc market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support. Attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - upward driving forces [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts this year at the macro level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs affects risk appetite. In the nickel ore market, Indonesia's new quota regulations may lead to a decline in 2026 quotas. The new energy sector is in the peak season, with strong demand. Nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless steel prices may decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the follow - up development of Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [75]. - For tin, the fundamentals have not changed. Yunnan's production has declined, and concentrate imports have dropped sharply. Supply is weaker than demand. In the short term, it is difficult to solve the supply - side disturbances, and Shanghai tin is still strong, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [92]. - For lithium carbonate, market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are continuously and significantly destocked. Before the end of the year, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to continue to grow month - on - month, which will support the futures price [106]. - For the silicon industry chain, for industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, enterprise production cuts are expected to increase, and the price center may move up slightly, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. For polysilicon, there are production cuts in the southwest region, and the specific impact needs further observation [118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Analysis**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio, as well as the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term gold and silver fund holdings [4][9][12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term sharp decline but medium - term outlook remains positive due to long - term monetary easing and stable global gold allocation demand [3]. Copper - **Spot and Futures Data**: Spot copper prices in various regions have declined, with daily price drops ranging from 0.89% to 0.9%. Futures prices of Shanghai copper have slightly increased, with a daily increase of 0.02%. The premium of Shanghai copper spot has decreased by 40% [23][24]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The spot market is weak, and the increase in supply has led to a decline in premiums [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: Aluminum and alumina futures prices have increased slightly, with daily increases ranging from 0.36% to 0.79%. There are various price spreads among different contracts, such as the spread between Shanghai aluminum continuous and consecutive contracts [38][41]. - **Market Fundamentals**: Macro data is positive for aluminum prices, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventory provides support. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc futures prices have increased slightly, with daily increases ranging from 0.09% to 0.32%. Zinc inventory has decreased, with a daily decrease of 1.6% for Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and 5.3% for LME zinc inventory [61][71]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and low inventory provides short - term support [60]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Price and Market Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends. Nickel spot average prices are presented. The new energy sector has strong demand, while nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices may decline slightly [76][83][75]. - **Macro Factors**: Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [75]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin futures prices have increased slightly, with daily increases ranging from 0.26% to 0.5%. Tin inventory has increased slightly, with a 1.17% increase in Shanghai tin warehouse receipts [93][101]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is weaker than demand, and short - term prices are strong [92]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate futures prices have increased, with daily increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.54%. Inventory has decreased, with a 2.92% decrease in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts [107][115]. - **Market Outlook**: Strong demand before the end of the year will support the price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Production**: Industrial silicon prices have little change, and some prices have decreased slightly. Southwest polysilicon production cuts need further observation. The price of industrial silicon may increase slightly as the dry season approaches [118]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: High inventory restricts the price increase of industrial silicon [118].