Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On December 3, the JM2601 contract closed at 1070.5, down 2.19%. The coking coal market is in a bottom - oscillating state with short - term multi - empty fluctuations. The mine capacity utilization rate has declined, and the coking coal inventory of mid - upstream mines and coal washing plants has increased for 4 - 5 consecutive weeks. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the inventory of mid - downstream has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. - On December 3, the J2601 contract closed at 1624.5, up 0.40%. The first round of price cuts for coke in the spot market has been implemented. The iron - making output has decreased, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1070.50元/吨，较前一日下跌26.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1624.50元/吨，较前一日下跌5.00元[2]。 - JM期货合约持仓量为848358.00手，较前一日增加5949.00手；J期货合约持仓量为46528.00手，较前一日减少755.00手[2]。 - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 97300.00手，较前一日增加13619.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为283.00手，较前一日减少63.00手[2]。 - JM5 - 1月合约价差为94.00元/吨，较前一日增加11.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为127.00元/吨，较前一日减少8.00元[2]。 - 焦煤仓单为600.00张，较前一日无变化；焦炭仓单为2070.00张，较前一日无变化[2]。 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1000.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1830.00元/吨，较前一日无变化[2]。 - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为162.00美元/湿吨，较前一日无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，较前一日无变化[2]。 - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1510.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，较前一日无变化[2]。 - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1670.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，较前一日无变化[2]。 - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1610.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；J主力合约基差为205.50元/吨，较前一日增加5.00元[2]。 - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1350.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；JM主力合约基差为539.50元/吨，较前一日增加26.00元[2]。 Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤日产量为27.10万吨，较前一日增加0.50万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤周库存为321.40万吨，较前一周增加16.10万吨[2]。 - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，较前一周无变化；原煤月产量为40675.00万吨，较前一月减少475.50万吨[2]。 - 煤及褐煤月进口量为4174.00万吨，较前一月减少426.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.30万吨，较前一日减少2.10万吨[2]。 - 16个港口进口焦煤周库存为465.00万吨，较前一周增加8.10万吨；焦炭18个港口周库存为247.20万吨，较前一周减少6.20万吨[2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤周库存为1010.30万吨，较前一周减少27.89万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭周库存为71.76万吨，较前一周增加6.47万吨[2]。 - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤周库存为801.30万吨，较前一周增加4.22万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭周库存为625.52万吨，较前一周增加3.18万吨[2]。 Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为13.01天，较前一周增加0.04天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.29天，较前一周增加0.24天[2]。 - 炼焦煤月进口量为1059.32万吨，较前一月减少33.04万吨；焦炭及半焦炭月出口量为73.00万吨，较前一月增加19.00万吨[2]。 - 炼焦煤月产量为4231.51万吨，较前一月增加255.59万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.95%，较前一周增加1.24%[2]。 - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利为46.00元/吨，较前一周增加27.00元[2]。 - 焦炭月产量为4189.60万吨，较前一月减少66.00万吨[2]。 Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.07%，较前一周下降1.10%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为87.96%，较前一周下降0.60%[2]。 - 粗钢月产量为7199.70万吨，较前一月减少149.31万吨[2]。 Industry News - As of December 2, the issuance scale of local government bonds nationwide was approximately 10.1 trillion yuan, with local government annual bond issuance exceeding 10 trillion yuan for the first time [2]. - Six state - owned large - scale banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit [2]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicted that the global economic growth in 2025 would slow down to 2.6%, lower than 2.9% in 2024 [2]. - The OECD estimated that the global economic growth would be 3.2% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026, and 3.1% in 2027, and China's economic growth in 2025 would be 5% [2].

分析观点： 期货市场上看，12月3日收盘，焦煤期货主力合约报1070.5元/吨，跌幅2.19%，最高触及1104.0元/吨， 最低下探1062.0元/吨，日内成交量达422343手。 光大期货研报：供应端，部分煤矿因井下原因减产，整体供应仍维持偏紧状态，焦炭首轮降价全面落 地，下游焦企利润压缩，原料采购更趋谨慎，线上竞拍成交多延续小幅下跌。需求端，钢厂利润亏损依 旧，有继续压降原燃料成本计划，近期按需采购为主，下游企业采购态度偏谨慎，厂里库存低位运行， 以刚需采购为主，预计短期焦煤盘面宽幅震荡运行。 12月2日晋中市场炼焦煤价格下调20元/吨，中硫主焦精煤A10.5、S1.3、V25、G80、CSR65、岩相0.15 出厂价现金含税1350元/吨。 今年1-10月，南非煤占巴基斯坦煤炭进口总量的78%，已取代印尼成为该国的首选供应源。 | | (12月3日)全国焦煤价格一览表 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货 | 交易商 | | 称 | | 产地 | | 类型 | 地 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed results on December 3, 2025, with pulp prices rising over 3% and tin over 2%, while lithium carbonate and eggs fell over 2% [2] - The report from 混沌天成期货 indicates that the market for needle pulp remained stable, with prices for silver star at 5450 yuan/ton and Russian needle at 5220 yuan/ton, both increasing by 50 yuan [3] - The overall trading atmosphere in the pulp market is described as quiet, with prices holding steady, while the white cardboard market is seeing some players considering price increases [3] Group 2 - The cultural paper sector is experiencing production shifts and reduced loads, but the overall supply remains ample due to the large capacity base in the industry [3] - Despite a significant rebound in the market due to external price increases and some recovery in downstream demand, supply-side pressures persist, leading to an accumulation of port inventories [3] - The short-term outlook suggests a bottoming out with fluctuations, with attention needed on paper manufacturers' inventory replenishment and macroeconomic influences [3]

钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月3日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3300 | 3290 | 10 | 167 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 87 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3350 | 3350 | O | 217 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3169 | 3167 | 2 | 131 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3208 | 3206 | 2 | 92 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3133 | 3134 | -1 | 167 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3310 | 3310 | 0 | -15 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3240 | 3240 | 0 | -85 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3350 | 3350 | 0 | 12 | | | 热卷05合 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation, with different commodities and sectors presenting various trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market participants should pay close attention to these factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. The external market oil price fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although there are some short - term positive news, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the supply is still expected to be loose in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is also alleviated, and attention should be paid to whether the end - of - year shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve its supply - demand structure [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiated price trend. The demand in Northeast and North China is gradually stagnant, while the South China market is weak. The weekly shipment volume is at a low level in the past four years, and it is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. Silver's upward trend slowed after hitting a new high, and gold also showed fluctuations. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation. Platinum is stronger than palladium in performance [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, while Shanghai copper showed some resilience in the previous trading - intensive area. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions increased slightly, and the spot discount slightly expanded. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is testing the previous high of 22,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic supply and demand of zinc both decreased, while the overseas zinc ingot spot is tight. The LME zinc is running at a high level, and the export window is open, driving the domestic market up. The bottom support of zinc is strong, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transferring the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic refined - scrap lead price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is at a low level. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase the high, and a medium - to - long - term short - allocation with a hedging strategy is suggested [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the decline in polysilicon prices. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the DMC price trend [10] - **Iron & Steel Related** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is strong, and the domestic arrival volume is high. The port inventory is accumulating. The demand for iron ore may further decline. The market has expectations for policy benefits, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Coke**: The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. The market has expectations for downstream replenishment. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has a slight increase. The price is expected to maintain a rebound in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. The market expects downstream replenishment. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated during the day. The spot price of manganese ore increased. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of the reduction in Ghana's shipment [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated during the day. The market expects coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power cost and blue - carbon price. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the export demand has decreased. The supply of silicon iron has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene's price slightly increased. The supply of polyethylene has limited changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to slightly increase, and the short - term demand is also weak [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillates. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may be relieved. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda oscillates weakly. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient [26] - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX and PTA is driven down by the oil price. PTA continues to cut production, and the demand for PX is weak in the short term. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to be repaired [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and its price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip's demand is weak, and the over - capacity is a long - term pressure [29] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation platform, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export and South American weather [33] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil's near - month contract is reducing positions and shifting positions. The supply of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in November, and the Indonesian export policy is favorable. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound [34] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has not improved, and rapeseed is oscillating at the bottom. Rapeseed meal's demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly destocking. The rapeseed series is expected to oscillate in a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight. The US soybean is affected by South American weather and export factors, and is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - **Corn**: The spot market drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The new grain supply is lower than expected, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. Attention should be paid to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [37] - **Pork**: The pork futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price is slightly down. The southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures rose sharply and then fell. The far - month contract should not be chased up, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: The US cotton slightly decreased. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn price is stable, and the new orders are insufficient. The industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillates. The production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production in Guangxi is expected to be good [41] - **Apple**: The apple futures oscillate at a high level. The spot price is strong, and the inventory is lower than last year. In the long - term, there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contract [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures oscillate. The supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the price [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with reduced volume yesterday. The stock index futures all closed down. The external market is mixed. The short - term macro - liquidity factor has uncertainties, and a wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [45] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures oscillate. The six major banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - value deposits. The bond market sentiment is cautious, and the long - term interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Low-level range operation [3] - Coke: First round of price cut implemented, range operation [8] - Coking Coal: Supply still has disruptions, maintain range operation [12] - Ferroalloys: Limited supply-demand contradictions, maintain range operation [15] Core Views of the Report - Steel: The fundamentals of rebar are weakly balanced, with slightly decreased production and apparent demand, and decreased inventory. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased slightly, the apparent demand has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][5] - Iron Ore: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, the fundamentals have weakened, and a cautious bearish view is taken [6][7] - Coke: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, and inventories have accumulated. Steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. It is expected to follow coking coal in the short term [10] - Coking Coal: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, and the market transaction is light. It is expected to repair the basis and maintain range operation [13] - Manganese Silicon: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] - Ferrosilicon: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] Summary by Variety Rebar - **Variety View**: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly, inventory decreased, and the fundamentals are weakly balanced. Iron water production decreased, and steel mills' willingness to reduce production is low [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term lack of strong driving force, may fluctuate in the range [5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Variety View**: Production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Iron water production decreased slightly, steel mills' willingness to reduce production is not strong, and it may fluctuate in the range in the short term [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, steel mills are destocking, ports are increasing inventory, and the fundamentals have weakened [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken, and long positions should avoid the edge for the time being [7] Coke - **Variety View**: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, inventories have accumulated, and steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. Iron water production has decreased, and most steel mills have maintenance plans [10] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken [11] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, the market transaction is light, and downstream restocking needs to be concerned [13] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken [14] Manganese Silicon - **Variety View**: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The short-term cost has certain support, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is recommended to be cautious [17] Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is expected to operate in the range [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, and BR is also rated neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the end of rain in southern Thailand in early December requires further assessment of flood impacts. Domestic rubber inventories are increasing, with supply from Thailand to increase, and the supply - demand structure may widen the spread between RU and NR. For BR, the recent price rebound is driven by butadiene, but the support is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,685 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - number standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - number standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 10,600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025 reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, and the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports reached 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, automobile tire exports were 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2] - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - After centralized maintenance in October, some enterprises still had maintenance and production reduction in November, and the phenomenon may continue in December, dragging down overall production [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; smoked sheet rubber exports were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; latex exports were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; smoked sheet rubber exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - In October, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 2, 2025, the RU basis was - 410 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 780 yuan/ton (+ 80), the NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (- 53.00); whole latex was 14,950 yuan/ton (+ 100), mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton (+ 30), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 300 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 59.55 baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai latex was 55.50 baht/kg (- 0.50), Thai cup lump was 52.95 baht/kg (+ 0.85), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.75% (+ 0.71%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 66.00% (- 3.36%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 481,562 tons (+ 12,685), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,079,708 tons (+ 17,827), the RU futures inventory was 41,400 tons (+ 1,800), and the NR futures inventory was 51,307 tons (+ 1,108) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 2, 2025, the BR basis was - 385 yuan/ton (- 275), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,100 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton (+ 200), the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,100 yuan/ton (+ 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,282 yuan/ton (+ 100) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 70.19% (- 2.45%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,540 tons (+ 660), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,900 tons (+ 270) [9] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The impact of floods in southern Thailand needs further assessment, domestic inventories are increasing, demand is weak, and the supply - demand structure may widen the spread between RU and NR. For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The price rebound is driven by butadiene, but the support is limited, supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak [10]

供需宽松格局延续，盘面反弹空间受限 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5959元/吨（-6），丙烯华东现货价6015元/吨（+15），丙烯华北现货价6070元/吨（+50）， 丙烯华东基差56元/吨（+21），丙烯华北基差75元/吨（+38）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR178美元/吨（+4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR45美元/吨（-5），进口利润-301元/吨（+3），厂内库存48970吨（+3930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率42%（-4.20%），生产利润-330元/吨（-50）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润136 元/吨（+91）；正丁醇开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-175元/吨（+73）；辛醇开工率81%（+4%），生产利润308元/ 吨（+68）；丙烯酸开工率77%（+4%），生产利润429元/吨（-11）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+1%），生产利润-518元/吨 （-38）；酚酮开工率81%（+2%），生产利润-602元/吨（+0）。 丙烯日报 | 2025-12-03 市场分析 单边：观望；短期成本端支撑增强，盘面偏强震荡，但 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-03 市场驱动有限，盘面维持震荡运行 市场分析 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 1、\t12月2日地区价格：山东市场，4410-4500；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4250-4470；华东市场，4220-4470； 沿江市场，4600-4980；西北市场，4350-4480；华南市场，4400-4600。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷580美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，丁烷570美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4520元/吨，跌99元/吨，丁烷4442元/吨，跌99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷573美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，丁烷563美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4466元/吨，跌99元/吨，丁烷4388元/吨，跌99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-03 市场分析 2025-12-02，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于9120元/吨，最后收于8975元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-200）元/吨，变化（-2.18）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓187342手，2025-12-02仓单总数为6784手，较前 一日变化188手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9500-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13100-13300（0）元/吨。有机硅DMC市场持稳，DMC报价在13100-13300 元/吨，在单体厂联合减产挺价，预售充足，自身库存压力较小的支撑下，下游对高价货源的接受程度有所提高， 市场看涨信心增强，预计短期内市场稳中偏强运行。据SMM统计，11月国内有机硅DMC产量环比10月增加3.82%， 同比下降1.33%。 ...