Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a weekly hot - spot preview for the week of December 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Weekly Key Focus - On December 31 at 03:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting [2][10] - On December 31 at 09:30, China's official December manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI and composite PMI will be announced [2][11] - On December 31 at 09:45, Markit will release China's December SPGI manufacturing PMI [2][12] - On December 31 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 22 [2][13] - US President Trump may appoint a new Fed Chairman in the first week of January 2026 [2][15] Group 3: Daily Hot - spot Details December 29 - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will announce the US seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index for November at 23:00, with an expected monthly rate of 1% (previous 1.9%) [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 19 at 00:00, expecting a decline of 2.432 million barrels (previous decline of 1.274 million barrels). A larger decline will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [4] December 30 - The US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will announce the US FHFA house price index for October at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous 0) [5] - Standard & Poor's will announce the US S&P/CS20 - city house price index for October at 22:00. The expected unadjusted annual rate is 1.1% (previous 1.4%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted monthly rate is 0.1% (previous 0.1%) [8] - The Chicago branch of the Institute for Supply Management will announce the US December Chicago PMI at 22:45, with an expected value of 39.5 (previous 36.3). A rise will help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices rise but suppress gold and silver futures prices [9] December 31 - The Fed will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting at 03:00, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [10] - China's official December manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.2 (previous 49.2), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5) [11] - Markit will release China's December SPGI manufacturing PMI at 09:45, with an expected value of 49.8 (previous 49.9). A slight decrease will slightly suppress industrial product futures and stock index futures but slightly help treasury bond futures [12] - The US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 22 at 21:30, with an expected value of 220,000 (previous 214,000). A slight increase will slightly help non - precious industrial product futures prices rise but help gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures prices rise [13] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 26 at 23:30. A decline will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [14] January 1 - Trump may appoint a new Fed Chairman. If the appointee is "obedient" like Hassett, it will increase concerns about the Fed's monetary policy independence, with an expected 2 - time rate cut in 2026, helping precious metals and non - ferrous metals futures rise [15][16] January 2 - S&P Global will announce the final value of the US December SPGI manufacturing PMI at 22:45, with an expected value of 51.8 (same as the initial value in December and 52.2 in November's final value) [17] January 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late December 2025, covering 9 categories and 50 products [18]

目录 中线行情分析 2025.12.29-12.31 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场呈现弱势整理格局，部分价格有所走低。供应端 持续高位运行，而需求维持低迷，尤其是重碱受下游玻璃冷修影响 明显。煤炭价格下行进一步削弱成本支撑，但企业亏损现状限制了 价格的下跌空间。总体交投平淡，市场缺乏方向性驱动，短期预计 延续窄幅震荡。纯碱期货先抑后扬，周尾随商品市场情绪反弹企稳， 但供需过剩格局未改，高库存与持续贴水仍构成压力，短期或维持 区间震荡。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅整理，供需宽松格局未变，企业库存 承压，成本支撑减弱。期货在低位震荡后小幅反弹，基本面 疲弱与宏观预期交织，短期延续震荡。 本周策略建议 上周国内纯碱市场弱势整理，供需宽松格局未变。现货需求 疲软且成本支撑减弱，期货先跌后涨，但高库存与过剩压力 持续，短期延续震荡。 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Synthetic rubber: Weakly bearish [1] - Silver: Caution against excessive bullishness [1] - Live pigs: Short - term rebound adjustment [3] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish in the short - term [4] - Palm oil: Bullish in the short - term [4] - Crude oil: Weakly bearish [5] - Asphalt: Weakly bearish [7] - Copper: Alert to price correction risks [7] - Methanol: Bearish in the short - term [8] - Soda ash: Slightly bearish in the short - term [9] - PVC: Bullish in the short - term [10] - Long - term treasury bonds: Slightly bullish for long - term, more bullish for short - term [11] - Gold: Caution against excessive bullishness, mid - term high - level oscillation [11] Core Views - The supply and demand situation of various commodities affects their price trends. For example, high domestic production capacity utilization and new production plans suppress the price increase of synthetic rubber, while the increase in exports and decline in production support the price of palm oil [1][4]. - Macro - events and policies have an impact on the market. For instance, the Japanese economic situation affects the silver market, and the expected monetary policy environment in China affects the bond market [1][11]. - The resolution of geopolitical conflicts may change the market sentiment. The potential peace plan in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may reduce the safe - haven demand for gold and silver [11]. Summary by Commodity Synthetic Rubber - As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene was 70.61%, up 0.6% from last week, and the port inventory was 43,300 tons, up 7,300 tons. In November 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons from the previous month. As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.76%, up 0.5% from last week. High domestic main - unit operating rates and new production and restart plans suppress spot price increases. Demand from industries like tires is in the end - of - year stocking phase, with weak willingness to buy at high prices [1]. Silver - The Japanese cabinet passed the initial budget for fiscal year 2026, with general account expenditures reaching 122.31 trillion yen, up about 7 trillion yen year - on - year. The economic recovery in Japan provides support for the Bank of Japan's implementation of a tight monetary policy. Silver has risen too much, with insufficient short - term upward momentum and an increased probability of peaking [1]. Live Pigs - As of December 26, the average live - pig slaughter weight was 123.55 kg, down 0.12 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate was 40.12%, up 0.53%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 223.82 yuan per head, up 9.91 yuan; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 66.57 yuan per head, up 6.58 yuan; the piglet price was 217.38 yuan per head, down 1.19 yuan. The national pig price rose significantly on the weekend. Supply is generally abundant, but there is a short - term shortage of medium and large pigs, supporting a phased price rebound [3]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 51st week of 2025, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, down 0.02 million tons from last week; the inventory in East China was 17.91 million tons, unchanged; the inventory in South China was 24 million tons, down 0.80 million tons; the inventory in North China was 3.75 million tons, down 0.24 million tons; the total inventory in major regions was 45.66 million tons, down 1.06 million tons. The delayed import of rapeseed for crushing in China leads to a short - term shortage of rapeseed meal supply, and the spot price has risen [4]. Palm Oil - From December 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from December 1 - 25, 2025, was 1,017,897 tons, up 3.0% from the same period last month. The increase in exports and decline in production provide continuous bullish support for the market [4]. Crude Oil - Russia's crude oil production in 2025 will be about 516 million tons, the same as last year, and is expected to increase to 525 million tons in 2026. Investors are worried about global over - supply, and international oil prices have fallen by more than 2%. However, Russia will continue to operate within the OPEC+ framework, so its oil supply will still be adjusted according to OPEC+ goals [5]. Asphalt - In January 2026, the domestic asphalt total planned production is 2 million tons, down 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and down 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The capacity utilization of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises this week was 7.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month and up 0.8% year - on - year. As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of domestic asphalt in 104 warehouses was 1.071 million tons. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises this week was 404,000 tons, up 15.4% month - on - month. The market has limited upward driving force due to weak fundamentals and sufficient raw material supply [7]. Copper - MMG has approved the feasibility study of the major expansion project of the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana and officially started construction. The project aims to increase the annual production capacity to 130,000 tons of copper in copper concentrate and the annual production of associated silver to more than 4 million ounces. The project is expected to produce the first batch of copper concentrate in the first half of 2028. The new copper mine is unlikely to relieve the short - term supply shortage. High copper prices have suppressed downstream procurement, and there is a risk of price correction [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, is 2,135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization is 91.24%, up 0.71% month - on - month. The 400,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Sichuan Lutianhua is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization is 74.26%, down 0.52% week - on - week. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4125 million tons, up 193,700 tons week - on - week. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, up 12,800 tons week - on - week, and the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 193,600 tons, down 26,800 tons week - on - week. High domestic methanol production and falling downstream demand lead to a large increase in port inventory [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1,255 yuan/ton, with a stable recent price. The weekly soda ash production is 711,900 tons, down 1.32% month - on - month. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.4385 million tons, down 4.06% week - on - week. The operating rate of float glass is 73.89%, down 0.1 percentage points week - on - week. The national average price of float glass is 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 58.623 million weight boxes, up 0.11% week - on - week. The domestic soda ash market is stable and dull, with light trading [9]. PVC - The price of SG - 5 PVC in East China is 4,500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PVC capacity utilization is 77.23%, down 0.15% month - on - month. The PVC social inventory is 1.0611 million tons, up 0.43% month - on - month. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 760 yuan/ton; the average profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 336 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 36.2%, down 1.4 percentage points month - on - month. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the market may see a holiday - related inventory build - up. The demand is weak, but the cost provides strong support [10]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The CSRC and other relevant departments will improve the institutional and policy environment for long - term investment, increase the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds invested in A - shares, and promote the improvement of the quality of listed companies. The long - term funds in the stock market still support the stock market. There is an expectation of monetary easing at the beginning of the year, resulting in a double - bull pattern of stocks and bonds [11]. Gold - Trump and Zelensky held a meeting on the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan." Trump said that both Zelensky and Putin hope to reach a peace agreement. The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict needs continuous attention, and the safe - haven sentiment may further cool down [11].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Next week (Dec 29 - Dec 31), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate, and investors should avoid risks during the New Year's Day holiday [5] - For soybean meal, the domestic market is strong due to customs clearance concerns and positive commodity - market sentiment, but attention should also be paid to the dynamics of US soybeans. US soybeans are affected by China's purchases and South American weather [5] - For soybeans, the stable - to - strong spot market and the state reserve's price - increase acquisition are positive factors, while state reserve auctions may suppress short - term upward momentum, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Summary of Market Conditions Last Week International Soybean Market - US soybean futures prices fluctuated last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a slight upward trend. The 03 - month contract of US soybean and US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.16% and 2.02% respectively on Dec 26 [1] - China's limited purchases of US soybeans are neutral - to - negative. On Dec 22, China bought 39.6 tons of US soybeans [1] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which is negative. As of Dec 26, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for Feb 2026 delivery decreased [1] - Some regions in Brazil started harvesting soybeans. AgRural raised the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 180.4 million tons [1] - Argentina's soybean planting progress was slow, but the early growth was good. As of Dec 24, the planting progress was about 75.5%, and the excellent - good rate was 67% [1] - The weather forecast for South American soybean - producing areas shows that precipitation in Brazilian main - producing areas will be basically normal, and in Argentina, it will be scarce in the next two weeks [1] Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly fluctuating last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 2.01% increase in the m2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The trading volume, pick - up volume, and basis of domestic soybean meal increased week - on - week. The inventory was basically flat week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to decline next week [1][3] Domestic Soybean Market - Domestic soybean futures prices rose slightly last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 1.08% increase in the a2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The domestic soybean price was stable - to - strong. The state reserve raised the purchase price, and the auction results were good. The trading volume of Northeast soybeans in the northern market was okay, while it was slow in the southern market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The demand shows weak support, and the futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate within a narrow range. The price increase may face pressure due to the weak short - term demand before the holiday and the new start and复产 on the supply side [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - This week, the alloy prices fluctuated within a narrow range with a slight upward shift in the price center, influenced by both macro - sentiment and weak and stable demand. The previous price increase on the futures market repaired the profit, leading to new starts and复产 on the supply side. Considering the weak short - term demand before the holiday, the upward potential of the futures prices may be limited [5]. - Macroscopically, the Central Economic Work Conference in China has further clarified the direction and tasks for next year's economic work, releasing many signals for stable growth in traditional areas and showing an attitude of policy attention towards prices [5]. - Microscopically, the change in hot metal production is small, providing weak support for raw material demand. The fundamental contradictions of silicomanganese continue to accumulate, and the previous shutdown factories of ferrosilicon have复产 due to the futures price repair [5]. 3.2 Futures Market - This week, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract fluctuated widely, closing at 5,672 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,118,256 lots and an open interest of 246,240 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 10,661 lots [8]. - The silicomanganese 2603 contract also fluctuated widely, closing at 5,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 764,909 lots and an open interest of 263,579 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 15,721 lots [8]. 3.3 Spot Market - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions in China fluctuated upward this week. The aggregated price of FeSi75 - B in major production areas was 5200 - 5270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 20 - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated spot price of silicomanganese in major regions ranged from 5520 to 5850 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 70 to 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Guangxi was 5700 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton), and in Ningxia was 5520 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton) [9]. 3.4 Basis and Spread - The basis of the alloys has shrunk, the spread between the main contracts has fluctuated, and there is a game of warehouse receipts approaching the delivery month [12]. 3.5 Silicomanganese Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese this week was 19.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 tons, with a week - on - week change rate of + 2.3%. The weekly operating rate was 36.78%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points from last week [17]. 3.5.2 Demand - In terms of steelmaking demand, the start - up and actual hot metal production of downstream steel mills are relatively stable. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and the daily average hot metal production was 226.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons. The output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons this week, providing weak support for the demand of silicomanganese [27]. - In the steel procurement market, many steel enterprises have completed their procurement of silicomanganese, with prices fluctuating and procurement volumes varying [24]. 3.5.3 Inventory - As of December 26, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 23,277, a week - on - week decrease of 374, equivalent to a reduction of 1,870 tons, and the current converted inventory was 116,385 tons [33]. - In December, the average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days (- 0.32 days), with 13.79 days in the northern region (- 0.55 days), 17.52 days in the eastern region (+ 0.85 days), and 16.27 days in the southern region (- 1.91 days) [34]. - As of December 26, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in China was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [36]. 3.5.4 Raw Materials - The global manganese ore outbound volume decreased slightly week - on - week, with different changes in different regions. The ore arrival volume at major ports decreased, and the ore dredging volume also decreased slightly [40][47]. - Overseas manganese ore enterprises have raised their quotes. For example, South32's January 2026 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps remained the same as last month, while the offer for Australian lumps increased by 0.3 dollars/ton - degree compared to December. The port prices of manganese ore have risen, which is closely related to the high dredging demand [52]. 3.5.5 Profit - The cost center of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the profit has recovered with the futures price [55]. 3.6 Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon this week was 9.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 percentage points [59]. 3.6.2 Demand - In terms of steelmaking demand, the start - up and actual hot metal production of downstream steel mills are relatively stable. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and the daily average hot metal production was 226.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons [76]. - In the non - steel demand aspect, the total output of magnesium metal in November was 8.53 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The output of stainless steel crude steel in November was 304.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 tons. The planned production of stainless steel crude steel in December decreased by 8.2% month - on - month [76]. - The export volume of ferrosilicon in November was 3.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52% [76]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China was 63,610 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,550 tons [78]. - As of December 26, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 11,882, a week - on - week decrease of 897, equivalent to a reduction of 4,485 tons, and the current converted inventory was 59,410 tons [78]. - In December, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days (- 0.39 days), with 13.76 days in the northern region (- 0.1 days), 17.05 days in the eastern region (+ 1 day), and 16.64 days in the southern region (- 3.81 days) [78]. 3.6.4 Profit - The profit of ferrosilicon has recovered with the futures price, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit repair on the original operating rhythm of factories [89].

国际白银期价逼近每盎司80美元 多种贵金属期价创新高 受避险需求增加等因素拉动，国际黄金、白银价格26日再创新高。其中，交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金 期货价格一度达到每盎司4581.30美元，3月白银期货价格突破每盎司79美元，逼近80美元。 目前，白银相对强弱指数（RSI）读数为93.86，为自1980年1月以来最高。当时RSI曾创下98.77的历史 最高纪录。一些市场分析人士认为，任何高于70.0的RSI读数都表明市场上涨过度，后续可能出现回 调。 最近一周，纽约商品交易所黄金期货RSI创下历史最高纪录，达95.94。黄金RSI历史第二高值出现在 1980年1月，当时达94.69。 此外，纽约铜价继续上涨，进一步巩固了铜价的年度涨幅。一些投资者押注2026年全球铜供应将趋紧。 纽约商品交易所期铜价格26日上涨近4%，至每磅5.7855美元。 有人发帖称，一觉醒来躺赚18万元。"涨到可怕！是不是可以卖了？"一位9月下午才入手白银基金的网 友说，两只期货基金A和C整体涨了近70%。其中A被转入场内后。算上溢价涨了100%。 今年以来，黄金价格飙升逾70%，有望创下自1979年以来最大年度涨幅。白银价格今年迄 ...

来源：喜娜AI 提供的链接内容中未涉及任何期货市场相关的财经信息，因此无法按照要求撰写期货市场快讯汇总。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 建议确认链接内容是否准确或提供包含期货市场动态的相关信息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant movements in the futures market, particularly noting a substantial increase in silver futures prices while gold and crude oil show mixed performance [1]. Group 1: Silver Futures - The Shanghai silver futures main contract rose by 6.03%, closing at 19,204 yuan per kilogram [1]. Group 2: Gold Futures - The Shanghai gold futures main contract experienced a slight increase of 0.17%, closing at 1,018 yuan per gram [1]. Group 3: Crude Oil Futures - The SC crude oil main contract declined by 2.44%, closing at 433 yuan per barrel [1].

沪银期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至5%，报19030元/千克，续创新高。 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and others 1. Market Performance Summary Commodity Futures - As of the close on October 16, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Platinum rose over 9%, lithium carbonate over 8%, Shanghai silver over 6%, and alumina over 5%. International copper, Shanghai copper, and p-xylene (PX) rose over 3%, while PTA and styrene rose nearly 3%. On the downside, palladium fell over 2%, and polysilicon, coking coal, and coke fell over 1%. [6] Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.48%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.51%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 0.80%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 0.57%. [7] Treasury Bond Futures - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.01%, 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) fell 0.01%, 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) rose 0.06%, and 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) rose 0.42%. [7] Fund Flows - As of 15:21 on December 26, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 5.103 billion yuan, CSI 1000 2603 had an inflow of 4.688 billion yuan, and SSE 2603 had an inflow of 3.916 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Shanghai silver 2602 had an outflow of 854 million yuan, polysilicon 2605 had an outflow of 662 million yuan, and rebar 2605 had an outflow of 227 million yuan. [7] 2. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - **Price Movement**: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, rising nearly 4% on the day. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees boosted market sentiment. [9] - **Supply**: In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05% MoM, 9.75% YoY). From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons (11.76% YoY). SMM expects December production to increase by 65,700 tons (5.96% MoM, 6.69% YoY). [9] - **Demand**: Copper product profits were squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip was weak. Copper tube enterprises were constrained by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil remained highly prosperous due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles. [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cathode copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to accumulate, indicating a decline in downstream purchasing power. [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: Lithium carbonate opened and closed higher, rising over 8% on the day. [11] - **Supply**: This week, the capacity utilization rate was 83.52%, significantly higher year - on - year. In November, the output was 93,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,596 tons, and the predicted output for next month is about 98,450 tons. [11] - **Demand**: Although the growth of downstream energy - storage batteries slowed down, it still maintained growth, and there was an expectation of price increase for lithium iron phosphate, supporting the price of lithium carbonate. However, the terminal peak season is coming to an end, and the purchase tax will be halved from next year, which may lead to pre - demand this month. [11] - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the inventory of smelters decreased by 1,071 physical tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 1,253 physical tons. The total inventory decreased by 1,044 physical tons. [11] Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ 8 additional voluntary - production - cut countries reiterated the suspension of production increase in Q1 2026. US crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. [12] - **Demand**: The peak season of crude oil demand ended. EIA data showed that the decline in US crude oil inventory was slightly lower than expected, while the increase in refined - oil inventory exceeded expectations, and the overall oil inventory increased. [12] - **Geopolitical Factors**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela escalated, and the EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months. There are concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues, but the market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. [12][14] Asphalt - **Supply**: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%, and the expected production in January 2026 is 2 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% MoM and 12.1% YoY. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residue or stop production next week. [15] - **Demand**: Downstream operating rates mostly declined, affected by funds and weather. Southern demand was average, and low - price goods in the South had good sales. Northern winter - storage demand continued to be released. [15] - **Price Outlook**: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela. [15] PP - **Supply**: As of December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%. The PP enterprise operating rate decreased to about 81.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring decreased to about 26.5%. New capacity was put into operation, and there were more maintenance devices recently. [17] - **Demand**: Downstream entered the end of the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the market lacked large - scale centralized purchases. [17] - **Price Outlook**: The upward space of PP is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow. [17] Plastic - **Supply**: On December 26, the plastic operating rate remained at about 87.5%. New capacity was put into operation in October and November, and the operating rate increased slightly. [18] - **Demand**: The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83%. The agricultural film season ended, orders continued to decline, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. [18] - **Price Outlook**: The upward space of plastic is limited in the near future, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow. [19] PVC - **Supply**: The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. New capacity was put into trial production. [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and export sales increased slightly but faced price and demand limitations in the Indian market. [20] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly and remained high. [20] - **Price Outlook**: PVC is expected to fluctuate. [20] Coking Coal - **Supply**: Near the end of the year, some mines planned to reduce production, but imported coal increased, and port and total inventories increased. [21][22] - **Demand**: Downstream demand was weak, and steel mills and coking enterprises had less inventory replenishment. [22] - **Price Outlook**: The market was in a low - level shock. [22] Urea - **Supply**: The current daily output is 190,000 tons. In January, there are plans for some gas - based devices in the southwest to stop production, but also many devices to resume production. [23] - **Demand**: The operating load of compound fertilizer factories continued to decline, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions in North China. After the environmental protection restrictions are lifted, the operating rate may recover. [23] - **Inventory**: The inventory reduction increased, mainly due to partial production cuts of upstream and downstream devices. [23] - **Price Outlook**: Urea is expected to fluctuate narrowly, mainly determined by the game between downstream inventory replenishment and daily output. [23]