宏观日报 | 2025-04-29 关注上游价格受贸易战不确定性影响 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注能源中游基础设施相关通知推行。 1）国家能源局发布关于促进能源领域民营经济发展若干举措 的通知。通知提到，支持投资建设能源基础设施。支持民营企业参股投资核电项目，建立健全长效工作机制。支 持民营企业投资建设水电、油气储备设施、液化天然气接收站等基础设施项目，支持民营企业参与油气管网主干 线或支线项目。 上游：1）能源：国际油价受关税影响持续震荡。2）有色：铜、锌、镍受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、建 材价格持续回落。4）农业：鸡蛋价格上涨。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落；聚酯、尿素开工率处今年高位。2）基建：沥青开工率来 到近三年低位。 下游：1）地产：一、二线城市商品房销售与去年同期持平，处近三年低位。2）服务：国际航班班次增加；国内 航班班次较同期减少。 市场定价：医药生物、化工行业信用利差近期小幅回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 服务行业：五一假期机票价格略降。 1）数据显示，截至4月18日，"五一"假期民航国内机票预订均价约881元，较 2019年同期提升11.1 ...

▍ 上 周债市震荡偏弱。 2 0 2 5年4月2 1日至2 0 2 5年4月2 5日，债市震荡偏弱。1 0年期国债收益率从上周的1 . 6 4 9 3%变动至1 . 6 6 0 6%；1 0年期国开债收益 率从上周的1 . 6 8 1 0%变动至1 . 6 9 6 1%；TS、TF、T、TL主力合约收盘价分别变动- 0 . 1 5 /- 0 . 3 0 /- 0 . 2 6 /- 0 . 0 2元。 文 ｜ 明明 周成华 丘远航 赵诣 在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率 更大。 ▍ 风险因素： 美国关税政策继续反复；货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月27日 发布的《 每周债券策略聚焦20250426—适时降准降息窗口临近 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报 告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 ▍ 具体看单日表现。 周一，LPR维持不变，现券收益率有所上行。周二，税 期尾声，资金利率回落，债市修复。周三 ...

信用策略周报 20250427 理财增量买了多少信用？ 2025 年 04 月 27 日 当周聚焦：跨季后的理财规模回暖情况如何？增量理财配置方向如何？信用 利差为何买不下去？ ➢ 信用继续偏弱 当周，信用债收益率跟随利率进入盘整期，但整体表现仍偏弱，信用利差震 荡上行： （1）资金面继续均衡宽松的情况下，叠加配置盘仍有需求，短信用跌幅有 限，信用利差小幅震荡走高； （2）2-3 年期中短端信用收益率及信用利差上行幅度偏大，其中中低等级 下沉城投品种在较高收益保护下表现稍好； （3）4-5 年长端信用收益率上行幅度相对不大，部分中低等级信用利差小 幅收窄； （4）5 年期以上的超长普信继续阴跌且跌幅不浅，买盘力量不强；相较之 下，市场寻求票息且对流动性较为在意的情形下，超长二永表现稍好。 ➢ 跨季后，理财规模增长了多少？ 截至 2025 年 4 月 20 日，全市场理财产品规模合计 30.84 万亿元，较 3 月 底增长了 1.82 万亿元，跨季后的增长规模整体介于 2023 年和 2024 年同期之 间，增长幅度并不算小。 ➢ 理财增配的方向 截至 2025 年 4 月 26 日，理财在二级净买入债券规模基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 774 billion yuan, leading to a marginal easing of the capital market. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond continued to fluctuate around the 1.65% central level, pricing in an expected interest rate cut of about 30BP. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may still return above 1.7% this year [2][42]. - Overall, the credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on short - duration moderate credit - risk exposure for coupon income and also pay attention to the convex points in the 3 - 5Y term structure to increase returns. For industrial bonds, the short - end credit spreads compressed slightly while the long - end widened slightly. It is advisable to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure of AA and AA+ bank secondary capital bonds [2][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 435.5 billion yuan this week, a week - on - week increase of 255.1 billion yuan. The total issuance was 751.5 billion yuan, up 299.4 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 316 billion yuan, up 44.3 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 36.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.3 billion yuan [6]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 30.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 188.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 216.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 231.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - Except for the issuance rates of AAA financial bonds and AA+ urban investment bonds, which increased, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA - rated urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 3BP and 12BP respectively compared with last week; the issuance rate of AA+ - rated industrial bonds decreased by 11BP; and the issuance rates of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds and AAA - rated financial bonds increased by 4BP and 7BP respectively compared with last week [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 11.7 billion yuan week - on - week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 254.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 12.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 363.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 369.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 2.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 billion yuan [15]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 2.16%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points [16]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different terms and ratings increased to varying degrees this week. In AA+ - rated credit bonds, the yields of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y increased by more than 5BP; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the yield of 7 - 10Y increased by more than 5BP. Except for the yield of AA+ credit bonds below 1Y, which decreased by less than 1BP compared with last week, the yields of other term and rating credit bonds increased by no more than 5BP [20][21]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. In AA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of non - bank finance and public utilities widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively compared with last week; in AA+ - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of electronics and pharmaceutical biology widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of leisure services, national defense and military industry, household appliances, and automobiles widened by 5BP, 5BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively. In addition, the credit spread of the AA+ chemical industry narrowed by 5BP, and that of the AAA real estate industry narrowed by 7BP. The credit spreads of different ratings in other industries fluctuated by less than 5BP compared with last week [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened this week, with the long - end widening more than the short - end. By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened, while those in a few regions narrowed slightly. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated, AA+ - rated, and AAA - rated urban investment bonds were listed respectively [28][29]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed a pattern of slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end this week. It is recommended to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [32]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The credit spreads of bank capital bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. The overall pattern was slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure [36]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. announced its plan to delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and transfer to the National Equities Exchange and Quotations. This led to a downgrade of the implied ratings of a total of 65 bonds issued by AVIC Industry Finance and its subsidiaries [40]. - Other negative public opinions included the downgrade of the implied ratings of "17 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" and "16 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" issued by Chaoyang Bank Co., Ltd., the extension of "20 Tianqian 02" issued by Hubei Tianqian Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the extension of "H20 Xinyuan 1" and "H21 Xinyuan 1" issued by Xinyuan (China) Real Estate Co., Ltd. [2][44].

文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 杨宏宇 史雨洁 2 0 2 5年4月2日，特朗普政府正式实施"对等关税"政策，直接引发全球资本避险模式，风险资产持 续大幅下跌，避险资产成为最大赢家，1 0年期美债收益率骤降，中国债市同步打破持续近一个季 度的僵局，1 0年期国债收益率逼近1 . 6%的前低。从配置角度看，债市走牛逻辑已然清晰，而股市 中具备防御属性的红利资产，或将成为资金抵御"关税风暴"的核心避风港，关税风暴的超强催化器 与红利基本面的坚实逻辑共振，固收视角来看，走牛是大概率事件。 ▍ 近年来，降息周期深化与结构性"资产荒"共振推动债市趋势性走牛，短期来看，关税政策重 压或将共振推动债市重拾升势。 近年来，货币政策宽松周期叠加实体融资需求疲弱，推动1 0年期国债收益率一度趋势性下滑至 1 . 6%以下。一季度在资金面持续偏紧的压力下大幅调整，一度重回1 . 9%以上。但特朗普政府加 征1 0 4%差异化关税政策落地，料将冲击我国出口链。三驾马车同步承压格局下，货币政策宽松 预期大幅升温，债市结束一季度震荡调整，重启下行通道，1 0年期国债利率逼近1 . 6%的前低。 ▍ 纯固收产品正遭遇"收益塌陷"与"需求刚性"的双重 ...

2025年04月09日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | 市场表现：周二贵金属价格继震荡；消息面，白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示近期不会实施关税豁免并确认周三对 | | | | | | | | | | | 金 | | 别国征关税的计划；加拿大宣布对美汽车的对等关税也于周三生效。经济数据方面，美国石油协会（API）数 | | | | | | | | | | | 属 | 据显示，4 月 4 | 日当周，美国 原油库存 +603.7 万桶；关税紧张局势加速了企业 | | | API | -105.7 | 万桶，之前一周 | | | | | | | | 债券的抛售，信用利差已达 472 基点，距离 基点的危险阈值仅一步之遥。库存数据方面，印度 | | | | 500 | | | | 2 | 月白银 | | | 进口减至 250 | 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 | ...

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 高等级同业存单指基>现金管理>含权债基>短债 含权债基>中长期债基 > 短债基金 >同 | | 收益回顾 | 基金>中长期债基 业存单指基 > 现金管理 | | | 近一个月资金面收敛,货币宽松预期继续回落; 2025年1月央行加强预期管理,宽松 | | 债市回顾 | 信贷扩张趋稳;经济数据趋稳。三大因子对债市 预期边际收敛,银行间资金利率变贵, | | | 影响中性偏空，债券利率上行。 短、长债利率上行。 | | 行业事件 | 暂无 | | 跟踪 | | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | -同业存单:预计利率震荡偏下行。 在基本面和金融数据还未出现明显变化 | | | -利率债:利率高位震荡。 之前,债券利率震荡下行趋势未改。近 | | 债市展望 | 期债市回调幅度偏大,继续调整空间有 -信用债:信用债收益率趋稳,信用利差或继续 | | | 限，后期将进入到震荡期。 向下压缩。 | | 固收产品 | | | | ...

文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 史雨洁 杨宏宇 2 0 2 5年2月以来，长债利率整体震荡上行，期间债市各类机构交易行为出现明显分化，基金与国有 行成为市场主要利率卖盘，而农商行与保险在长端则仍有明显的调后买入行为。往后来看，随着 1 0年国债收益率重回2 4M1 2 "适度宽松"货政立场提出前的水平，叠加融资成本和市场稳定性的考 量，来自监管部门对债市情绪的压制或边际趋缓，可以资金面流动性作为重点参考，但这并不意味 着利率存在新一轮趋势下行的机会，债市短期内仍将处于高波动阶段。 ▍ 如何看待后续债市的调整压力？ 目前1 0年国债收益率已回升至2 4M1 2 "适度宽松"货政立场提出前的水平，其与OMO政策利率利 差也自历史低位大幅反弹；债市进入持续逆风期后，市场更关注本轮调整的上限，我们认为有三 方面要素值得关注： 一是政策利率锚的作用正在重新回归： 若仍以政策利率作为央行的参考锚，前几轮央行进行"实 质"干预债市或进行主动预期管理的时点，对应长债利率触及或突破OMO利率+3 0 b p s界限； 二是"矫枉不宜过正"： 利率抬升若形成实质"加息"有悖于压降社会整体融资成本的核心诉求， 除去二级估值价格外，重点关注财 ...

文/复旦大学管理学院青年副研究员 常惠丰 编辑丨周茗一 学术界和业界普遍发现，来自债券和股票市场的风险指标对宏观经济活动具有显著的预测能力。实证研 究表明，当债券信用利差上升或股票波动率提高时，企业投资往往会减少。然而一个重要的实证发现 是，尽管信用利差和股票波动率均包含了企业资产波动率和杠杆率的信息，但在预测企业投资方面，信 用利差的表现显著优于股票波动率。对于这一现象，原有研究尚未形成统一的解释。是因为债券市场投 资者拥有更强的信息优势，而股票市场的价格更容易受到投机泡沫的影响，还是债券价格能更有效地反 映下行风险，而股票价格则更多地包含了关于未来增长机会的信息？ 论文的研究发现 从这个问题出发，复旦大学管理学院青年副研究员常惠丰、斯德哥尔摩经济学院金融学副教授阿德里安 ·达韦纳斯（Adrien d'Avenas）和美国加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森商学院教授安德莉亚·艾斯菲尔德 （Andrea Eisfeldt）共同撰写的论文《债券与股票：投资的信息》（Bonds vs. Equities: Information for Investment）（以下简称论文），系统探讨了股票波动率、资产波动率、信用利差、杠 ...