Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the light industry, particularly in personal care and jewelry sectors, with several companies exceeding expectations in Q1 2025 [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The light industry shows a steady performance, with essential consumer goods outperforming overall trends. Companies like Baiya Co., Haoyue Care, and Chaohongji have reported better-than-expected results in Q1 2025 [3][5][6]. - The two-wheeler and motorcycle sectors are experiencing unexpected growth driven by new national standards and government subsidies, with companies like Ninebot and Chunfeng Power also exceeding expectations in Q1 2025 [3][5][12]. - Export demand remains strong, with product structure improvements and favorable exchange rates supporting profitability for companies like Jiangxin Home and Jiayi Co. in Q1 2025 [3][5][20]. - The home furnishing sector is benefiting from government subsidies, leading to a reduction in revenue decline, with leading companies like Kuka Home and Oppein showing slightly better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025 [3][5][20]. - The packaging industry maintains a stable structure, with leading companies increasing their market share, while metal packaging profitability is slightly under pressure [3][5][20]. - The paper industry has seen a continued decline in profitability in H2 2024, but Q1 2025 shows signs of recovery, with companies like Sun Paper benefiting from integrated supply chain advantages [3][5][20]. Summary by Sections Light Industry - Revenue recovery is evident in Q1 2025, with essential consumer goods showing stronger growth compared to optional and mass consumer goods. The revenue growth rates for essential consumer goods were 20.4% in Q1 2025, while mass consumer goods showed a decline of 0.9% [6][7][10]. - Profitability remains weaker than revenue growth, with net profits for essential consumer goods declining by 49.8% in Q3 2024, but showing a slight recovery of 1.5% in Q1 2025 [7][11]. Two-Wheeler & Motorcycle - The domestic two-wheeler market is benefiting from a transition to new national standards, with revenue growth rates of 50.9% in Q1 2025. Profit margins are improving due to product upgrades and reduced price competition [12][13][14]. - Export performance for motorcycles is also strong, with revenue growth of 32.2% in Q1 2025, driven by seasonal demand and product upgrades [14][19]. Exports - Export demand continues to be robust, with key categories like fitness equipment and insulated cups showing double-digit growth. Companies like Jiayi Co. and Hars have reported significant revenue increases of 67% and 22% respectively in Q1 2025 [20][23]. - The exchange rate has positively impacted export performance, with the USD/CNY exchange rate showing a slight depreciation, benefiting exporters [20][23]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a narrowing of revenue decline due to government subsidies, with leading companies like Kuka Home and Oppein showing slight improvements in Q1 2025 [20][23]. Packaging - The packaging industry remains stable, with leading companies increasing their market share. However, profitability in metal packaging is facing slight pressure due to competitive pricing [20][23]. Paper Industry - The paper industry has faced declining profitability, but Q1 2025 shows signs of recovery, with companies like Sun Paper reporting improved performance due to supply chain advantages [20][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing dual easing policies in China, focusing on domestic demand and consumption as the main investment strategy for the next decade, while highlighting the resilience of the Chinese economy against external pressures [2][4][7]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The future investment strategy in A-shares will focus on "domestic demand as king, emphasizing consumption," which is seen as a major trend for the next 10 years [2][8]. - The multi-fund manager team system at Star Stone Investment has been successfully implemented for 10 years, allowing for high portfolio operation without significant market timing, achieving effective volatility control [2][16]. - The "fund manager secondary recommendation mechanism" encourages collaboration among fund managers, enhancing the quality of investment decisions [2][15]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. faces significant fiscal pressure with a national debt of $36 trillion, leading to challenges in balancing economic growth and deficit reduction [3]. - China has prepared adequately for external economic pressures, with a diversified industrial layout and significant technological advancements reducing previous vulnerabilities [4][6]. - The current broad deficit rate in China may reach 8.4%, comparable to the pandemic period, indicating strong policy responses to economic challenges [7]. Group 3: Market Trends - The narrative of "East rising, West declining" is gaining traction, with capital flows shifting from the U.S. to China, driven by technological breakthroughs and supportive policies [5][6]. - The consumption sector is expected to see significant growth, with the potential for the proportion of household consumption in GDP to rise from around 40% to 70% over the next 10-20 years [8][10]. - Key investment themes include consumer services, high-growth consumer goods, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI-driven applications, all poised for recovery as the economy improves [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the substantial progress made in the high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., highlighting the potential for China to seize opportunities in the global economic landscape amidst ongoing trade disputes and structural changes in the economy [1][2]. Economic Resilience - The ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are moving towards a more controllable state, which may alleviate the current trade standstill and positively impact GDP growth in the upcoming quarters [3]. - China has established a robust social and economic foundation to withstand external shocks, with significant room for policy stimulus to stabilize economic growth [4]. - The long-standing advantages of China's industrial chain clusters are expected to help maintain economic stability despite trade tensions [5]. Policy Collaboration and Domestic Demand - There is a need for China to enhance fiscal measures to boost domestic demand, as monetary policy alone may not suffice [6]. - Suggested measures include increasing fiscal deficits, reforming state-owned enterprises to support social security systems, and shifting fiscal spending from infrastructure to social welfare [7][8]. Strategic Opportunities - China aims to enhance the attractiveness of its assets and market competitiveness by implementing the "2030 Major Strategy," which includes increasing domestic demand by 30% and achieving zero tariffs, zero entry restrictions, and zero subsidy limitations for countries outside the U.S. by 2030 [9][10][13]. - The growth in domestic demand is projected to fill the global demand gap created by U.S. trade protectionism, thereby enhancing China's role in global trade and geopolitical stability [12]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that despite uncertainties in the U.S. economy and its tariff policies, China's proactive measures and potential reforms could position it favorably in the global economic landscape, making it crucial for China to capitalize on this strategic opportunity [14].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3374.87 points, up by 0.17% [1] - Since April, the market has shown positive changes, particularly after the May Day holiday, with a significant increase in risk appetite driven by favorable policies [1] - The three major indices have all risen since the holiday, with the ChiNext Index leading with over 6% increase, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Composite Index with over 4% and 2% increases respectively [1] Institutional Research Activity - Institutional investor research activities have significantly increased, with public funds and private funds showing strong engagement [2] - In April, 195 public funds participated in A-share market research, covering 975 stocks across various industries, with a total of 12,800 research instances, doubling from the previous month [2] - The first week after the May Day holiday saw 144 public fund companies involved in research, maintaining a strong momentum with over 1,000 instances in a single week [2] Sector Focus - Public funds are particularly interested in the electronics and pharmaceutical sectors, with notable research on companies like Luxshare Precision and Huadong Medicine [3] - The electronics sector led private fund research with 1,535 instances, while the pharmaceutical sector followed with 1,284 instances [3] - The top ten most researched stocks included Luxshare Precision and Lattice Semiconductor, indicating a strong focus on the electronics industry [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent policy measures have effectively boosted market expectations and confidence, with A-shares currently seen as having high valuation appeal [4] - The main constraint on A-share valuation expansion is the growth rate of earnings, with expectations for a gradual recovery in market sentiment [4] - Specific sectors expected to rebound include electronics, IT services, and machinery equipment, particularly those with high overseas revenue [4] Consumer Market Insights - The strategic value of domestic consumption is gaining attention amid global trade tensions, with investment opportunities identified in areas like trade-in policies and new consumer trends driven by Generation Z [5]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology HKETF (513890) opened up over 2% on May 12, 2025, with a turnover of 5.66% and a transaction value of 23.15 million yuan, while the Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) rose by 1.26% [1] - Key stocks such as Sunny Optical Technology (02382) increased by 4.66%, BYD Electronics (00285) by 4.65%, and NIO-SW (09866) by 4.58%, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced the launch of the "Tech Company Fast Track" on May 6, aimed at facilitating the listing of specialized technology and biotech companies, which is expected to encourage more companies to list in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities expressed optimism about AI technology and domestic consumption, suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks for defensive positioning due to ongoing overseas risks [2] - The report highlighted that the overall overseas risks remain, and a potential decline in US tech stocks could impact Hong Kong stocks, while a dividend payout wave is anticipated in the second quarter [2] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April emphasized the need to expand consumption and enhance its role in economic growth, reinforcing the focus on domestic consumption as a key theme for the year [2] Group 3 - Morgan Asset Management is integrating its "Global Vision Investment Technology" product line to help investors capitalize on quality tech companies globally, driven by the AI wave [3] - The actively managed funds focus on emerging industry trends, AI opportunities, and sectors like the new energy vehicle supply chain and humanoid robots [3] - The passive investment options include the Morgan Hang Seng Technology ETF (QDII) and other funds targeting innovative pharmaceutical companies and global tech leaders [4]

政策驰援下投资信心回升 "专业买手"加仓权益类基金 实际上，随着外部扰动影响的降低，4月权益类基金投顾投资权益类资产的信心便有所上升。以主要配 置国内权益类基金的兴证全球进取派优选为例，该组合从4月10日起将"发车"金额提升至2000元，并在5 月8日发车时维持同样的"发车"建议金额。 开源证券数据也显示，4月股债混合型、股票型投顾组合均减持了"固收+"基金，增配主动权益类基金。 注重均衡配置 在外部扰动影响降低、国内政策支持的背景下，资金对权益类资产的投资热情不减。作为基金的"专业 买手"，权益类基金投顾也不断加仓权益类基金，并在近期提升了"发车"金额。 多只投顾组合提高"发车"金额 近期，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会负责人介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况。兴证全球投顾认为，一揽子增量政策的出台将有力推动增量资金入市，进一步提振 市场风险偏好。 5月以来，多只基金投顾组合提高了"发车"金额。比如中欧财富旗下的"中欧超级股票全明星"组合，4月 两次"发车"的建议金额为720元，但5月8日"发车"金额提高至900元。 中欧财富认为，不仅是政策支持，在4月业绩验证期结束后，5月 ...

『产品运作』 内需板块占比提升 Q：泉果消费机遇整体运作情况如何？ 孙伟： 北京大学经济学学士、金融学硕士，14年证券从业经验，8年投资管理经验。目前管理产品为泉果消费机遇混合型证券投资基金（以下简称"泉果消费机 遇"，代码：022223）。 前言： 经历了2025年4月美国"对等关税"风波引发的市场剧烈震荡后，在出口等外需方面持续博弈承压的背景下，强化内循环、扩容内需消费市场的重要性愈发凸 显。在提振内需的政策预期下，消费板块是否有望迎来新行情？当下消费行业有哪些新变化？ 让我们一起回顾2025年一季度泉果消费机遇的产品运作，听听基金经理孙伟如何看待关税冲击下，大消费板块的投资机遇。 泉果消费机遇成立于2024年9月27日，考虑到基金成立时间还不长，以及经济复苏进程和国际形势的复杂，本季度股票仓位并没有明显上升。截至2025年3月 31日，泉果消费机遇组合股票仓位占基金资产净值的72.86%，基本与上季度末持平，其中港股占基金资产净值比例为15.83%。 具体到行业层面，消费中内需板块的占比有所提升，比如整车、啤酒、医药等子行业，原有的互联网、高端制造业以及部分新质生产力的方向基本维持此前 的配置，同时还布 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20250508 5 月港股金股：关税阴霾渐退 2025 年 05 月 08 日 [观点Table_Tag] 3、港股反弹还需增量资金和政策刺激。当前增量资金主要以南向为主，香 港本地资金和海外资金还有增配空间。此外，尽管 5 月 2 日，美元兑港币 汇率触及 7.75 强方兑换保证，仍需继续观察外资流入情况。 ◼ 我们相对看好 AI 科技、内需，同时建议配置部分高股息用作防御： 1、看好 AI 科技：一是，美股科技业绩部分亮眼，一定程度上对全球科技 叙事有所提振；二是，业绩进入真空期，业绩干扰减少，利好主题行情， AI 科技东升仍是重点；三是，港交所和香港证监会推出"科企专线"，进 一步利好科创风偏。 2、考虑配置部分高股息：一是，整体海外风险还在，如果美股科技大跌可 能传导至港股科技；二是，二季度部分港股可能提前派息潮。为避免下半 年可能的在岸人民币压力，部分企业可能提前支付股息。三是，近期港币 流动性有宽松信号，若资金成本继续下降，进一步利好高股息。 3、内需消费仍是全年主线。4 月底政治局会议，明确表示要扩大消费，大 力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济拉 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the banking, real estate, and insurance industries, focusing on recent monetary policy changes and their implications for these sectors. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank's decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points (BP) and interest rates by 10 BP was unexpected and directly benefits the banking sector, while also positively impacting real estate through lower public housing loan rates and related policies [1][3][20]. - The release of approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity from the RRR cut is expected to lower banks' funding costs and support further leverage expansion, positively affecting net interest margins [1][6]. Market Reactions - The stock market's performance was categorized into three types based on policy expectations: technology and consumer sectors underperformed, real estate and insurance sectors met expectations, and the banking sector outperformed due to the unexpected RRR and interest rate cuts [2][3]. Sector-Specific Impacts - The banking sector is expected to benefit from the RRR cut, with a projected positive impact of 0.6 BP on net interest margins and a potential profit increase of 2% this year [6][7]. - The real estate market is anticipated to benefit from reduced mortgage costs, with public housing loan rates dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [20]. Investment Strategies - The strategy group recommends maintaining a core allocation in technology, domestic consumption, and dividend stocks, as these sectors showed improved fundamentals in Q1 and are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support [5][1]. - The introduction of new regulations for public funds aims to align management fees with performance, which is expected to guide fund managers towards better performance benchmarks, favoring large-cap indices like the CSI 300 [1][4]. Insurance Sector Developments - The approval of increased long-term equity investment limits for insurance funds is expected to enhance market vitality by bringing in more long-term capital [11][13]. - The insurance sector is projected to continue increasing its allocation to dividend stocks, with expectations of reaching a total allocation of over 5% of total assets in the coming years [17][15]. Real Estate Financing and Policy Adjustments - Recent policy adjustments include optimizing real estate financing measures, which may involve more favorable loan rates and increased financing quotas for urban renewal projects [23]. - The introduction of REITs into the stock connect program is seen as a significant move to expand investment opportunities and enhance market liquidity [24]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The central bank's cautious approach to interest rate cuts reflects a focus on stabilizing bank net interest margins while encouraging lending to key sectors like technology and consumer finance [7][6]. - The challenges faced by local governments in implementing stock acquisition policies highlight the need for sustainable financial models to support such initiatives [21][22]. - The anticipated capital supplement plans for large insurance groups indicate a proactive approach to mitigate systemic financial risks amid a challenging economic environment [19]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the implications of recent monetary policies and strategic recommendations for various sectors.

Group 1 - The resilience of the index comes from internal certainty, with April A-share market showing a rebound after initial declines, driven mainly by internal policies and medium to long-term funding certainty [3][6][29] - Future changes may become complex, with increasing pressure on the US economy and inflation due to tariff policies, alongside a declining dollar index and record high US debt maturities [3][36][46] - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and industries with high Q1 2025 performance, such as non-ferrous metals and home appliances [3][36][68] Group 2 - The market style is expected to rotate between defensive and growth styles, with current policies focusing on stability and potential weak market sentiment [3][36] - The Hong Kong market also shows resilience, with significant inflows from mainland investors and improved valuation due to tariff impacts [3][36] - Domestic policies are anticipated to stimulate investment and real estate, with historical data indicating a significant increase in local government bond issuance [58][59]