齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点张文珂 国内成品油零售限价迎来年内第五次上调。 国家发展改革委发布消息称，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，自2025年6月17日24时起，国内 汽、柴油价格每吨分别上涨260元和255元。 隆众资讯分析师褚英斌指出，本计价周期虽然汽油柴油整体需求一般，不过受地缘局势因素影响，国际原油价格持续走强，本 轮调价末期更是迎来大幅上行，消息、成本端拉动国内汽油柴油价格上涨。 据卓创资讯（301299）测算，截至6月16日收盘，国内第10个工作日，参考原油变化率6.01%，折合为升价，92号汽油、95号汽 油、0号柴油分别上调0.20元、0.22元以及0.22元。 海岱财经统计，待此次调价落地，年内成品油调整呈现"5涨5跌2搁浅"局面，汽柴油分别累计下调330元/吨、315元/吨。 目前，淄博地区92号成品油国标价为6.93元/升，此次涨价落实后，以"两桶油"为代表的加油站零售价将上调至7.13元/升左右， 重回"7元时代"；95号汽油国标价也将从现有的7.44元/升，上调至7.66元/升左右。 成本方面，按照油箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92号汽油将增加10元。以 ...

受地缘局势影响，国际尿素市场出口预期发生变化，这驱动国内尿素价格连续两个交易日跳涨。17日截至收盘时，尿素主力合约以3.99%的涨幅，强势领涨 当天商品市场。以色列和伊朗新一轮冲突不仅推动国际油价重上70美元／桶水平，也波及了国际尿素市场：中东尿素大颗粒价格跳涨至接近400美元／吨， 无疑增强了出口市场的吸引力。同时，印度新一轮招标和埃及化肥厂装置停车等，也奠定了尿素市场短期看涨氛围。加上国内尿素价格前期连续走低带来部 分逢低买盘，内外因共振推动尿素价格低位强势反弹。不过，分析机构也提示，尿素供需整体宽松局面未改，价格反弹仍面临基本面现实的制约。 尿素继续拉涨近4% 原木盘中触及800元／方关口创一个月新高 原木期价近两周整体呈现企稳回升态势。尤其是昨日大幅拉涨之后，17日继续惯性冲高。盘中，原木主力合约更是一度重回800元／立方米上方，触及约一 个月新高，尾盘涨幅虽有所回落，但仍以1.54%的涨幅实现"三连阳"。市场分析认为，虽然短期原木供需矛盾并不明显，但交割逻辑和进口成本成为期价的 有力支撑。据业内测算，山东地区交割成本约在786-807.6元／立方米，这使得期货近月主力合约前期价格水平存在一定贴水空间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China is driven by rising international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. oil inventory levels [1][2][3]. Price Adjustments - Starting from June 17, 2025, the price of gasoline will increase by 260 yuan per ton, and diesel will rise by 255 yuan per ton [1]. - The price increase translates to an increase of 0.20 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.22 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2]. Market Dynamics - The current pricing cycle has seen 12 adjustments, including 5 increases, 2 unchanged, and 5 decreases [2]. - International oil prices have shown a significant upward trend, supported by improved macroeconomic sentiment and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [2][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Despite a general demand for gasoline and diesel, geopolitical factors have led to a strong increase in international oil prices, which in turn has raised domestic fuel prices [4]. - Analysts predict stable gasoline demand due to increased travel during the summer, while diesel demand may decline due to limited outdoor construction activities [5]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for international oil prices remains strong, influenced by seasonal increases in gasoline consumption and geopolitical tensions affecting supply [6]. - The market sentiment is cautious, with expectations that gasoline and diesel prices may stabilize in the near term due to balanced supply and demand dynamics [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term [2]. - The May economic data is mixed and difficult to provide clear direction. Future focus should be on tax periods and cross - half - year capital conditions [2]. - Geopolitical situations and Fed decisions impact gold, oil, and other commodity prices. The market has digested the Middle - East geopolitical risk, causing prices to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Stock Index Futures - A - shares opened lower and closed higher, with TMT sectors rising. It is recommended to wait and consider selling put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn premium [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - It is advisable to allocate long positions on dips as the 1.6% is the downward resistance level for the 10 - year bond yield [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates and the price approaches the previous high of $3450 (800 yuan), or if the risk - aversion sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, sell out - of - the - money call options [2]. Shipping Index Futures - Be cautious and wait, or consider the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity for the container shipping index (European line) [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - For steel, wait and consider the long - steel short - raw material spread operation. For iron ore, try shorting on rebounds with a resistance level around 720 [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Consider the long - coking coal short - coke strategy. Coking coal's market is improving, while coke has a continued downward adjustment expectation and is close to the bottom [2]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are in bottom - range oscillations. Try shorting on rebounds to 5300 - 5400 for ferrosilicon and 5700 - 5800 for manganese silicon [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper's domestic spot trading is weak, and the US is replenishing stocks. Zinc's price center is moving down, and inventory reduction supports the price. Nickel and stainless steel are in narrow - range oscillations. Tin is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to short on highs based on supply and inventory data [2]. Crude Oil - Wait and see. The resistance levels are [73, 74] for WTI, [74, 75] for Brent, and [530, 540] for SC [2]. Chemicals - For urea, take a bullish view in the short - term and consider positive spreads. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6900. PTA is in a stalemate oscillation, and it is advisable to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, the market is oscillating. For palm oil, it may optimistically reach 8600 in the short - term. For sugar, cotton, and eggs, short on rebounds [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, maintain the short - on - rebounds strategy. For glass, short in the short - term. For rubber, hold short positions [2]. Industrial Silicon and New Energy - related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a low - level oscillation. For polysilicon, hold short positions cautiously. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation has eased, maintaining interest rate expectations, while gold prices show potential for bullish adjustments despite recent declines [1][3][5] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On June 16, international gold opened high but faced resistance, closing lower at $3,385.05 per ounce, down $48.69 or 1.42% from the previous close of $3,433.74 [1][3] - The price fluctuated between $3,410 and $3,420 during the European session, and dropped to a low of $3,382.71 during the US session, indicating a bearish trend [1][3] - The market is expected to experience a rebound after testing support levels, with key resistance at $3,500 and potential targets of $3,545 and $3,700 if broken [1][3][12] Group 2: Market Influences - The easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking by traders after reaching an 8-week high contributed to the decline in gold prices [3][5] - The US dollar index showed weakness, which initially supported gold prices, but the market's focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3][5] - Upcoming economic data releases, such as US retail sales and import price index, are anticipated to favor gold prices, although there is a risk of a pullback [5][6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices remain above key support levels, suggesting potential for continued bullish trends despite recent volatility [10][12] - Weekly charts show that while gold faced resistance, the 5-10 week moving averages provide bullish support, indicating opportunities for re-entry into long positions [12][14] - Daily charts reflect a bearish reversal pattern, but numerous support levels suggest potential for rebounds, with specific price levels to watch for trading decisions [14]

行业 沥青日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 17 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $67.5, closing at $71.53, with a high of $74.63, a low of $67.11, a daily increase of 7.34%, and a trading volume of 66.91 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.6, closing at $73.63, with a high of $75.30, a low of $69.42, a daily increase of 7.58%, and a trading volume of 103.34 million lots. SC's opening price was 539.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 541.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 553.6 yuan/barrel, a low of 532.5 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 5.43%, and a trading volume of 22.83 million lots [6] - **Core View**: Tensions between Israel and Iran continue, but energy infrastructure has not been significantly affected. In the short term, due to OPEC+ actual production increase being lower than expected, the start of the peak travel season in Europe and the United States, and rising geopolitical tensions, oil prices may continue to rise. In the medium term, the balance sheet indicates inventory accumulation, and if geopolitical tensions ease without a substantial supply disruption, oil prices may fall again [6] Group 3: Industry News - Iran's parliament is preparing a bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty [7] - In May, the output of crude oil in industrial enterprises above designated size was 18.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, 0.3 percentage points faster than in April, with a daily output of 596,000 tons. From January to May, the output was 90.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The decline in crude oil processing deepened [7] - Goldman Sachs still expects no disruption to Middle Eastern oil supply [7] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI and Oman spot prices, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [9][10][17][22]

首先，中美经贸磋商提升市场预期，但地缘局势扰动市场神经。上周中美双方在英国举行了新一轮 经贸磋商，这是上周四两国元首电话沟通之后的迅速工作跟进，高效的协调进程有利于缓解市场的担 忧。当然。近期国内资本市场重心缓慢上移，也已经部分定价了该预期。临近周末，中东地区地缘事件 成为扰动市场神经的重要边际变量。上周五，亚太地区的股市大都由此而产生些许调整，不过总体调整 幅度不大，国内股市仍有自我稳定的韧性。 上周，两市震荡微跌，成交再次回升。沪指上周来回拉锯，周中高点接近五月中旬的高点，但最终 小幅调整，沪指收盘跌破五天均线。深圳成指上周围绕 60 天均线反复争夺，周五收盘未能收复该均 线。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过了 13000 亿，连续两周回升。上周市场热点主要集中在上游资源 品和医药行业。投资风格方面，中小盘风格跌幅更大，大盘蓝筹相对抗跌。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指反身向上，但在 5 月中旬的高点附近遇到阻力。沪指于 5 月中旬逐步向下 调整，呈现高低点同步下移特征。但最终在 60 天均线获得支撑后，重新展开了一波反弹，上周在接近 5 月中旬的高点后，遇阻回落。这提示我们，去年四季度的成交密集区以及今年一季度的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unresolved in the short term, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have rebounded significantly [1][8]. Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and then rebounded to a high of $3446.53, closing at $3433.74, marking a weekly increase of $121.97 or 3.68% [1][3]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $152.84, indicating strong volatility in the gold market [1]. Influencing Factors - The decline in the US dollar index provided support for gold prices, driven by technical buying and increasing geopolitical tensions, which heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3][7]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was lower than expected, enhancing the prospects for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that despite recent volatility, gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend since last year [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold prices have been consistently moving higher, with the potential to reach $3500 or $3545 in the near future [11][13]. Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, along with concerns over tariffs and economic conditions, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [7][8]. - The market anticipates continued upward movement in gold prices, supported by both technical indicators and fundamental factors [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent military actions in the Middle East, leading to expectations of a substantial increase in domestic fuel prices in China [1][3][5]. Oil Market - International oil prices experienced a notable increase, with WTI crude oil rising to $72.98 per barrel and Brent crude oil reaching $74.23 per barrel, marking daily increases of 7.26% and 7.02% respectively [3]. - Over the current pricing cycle, WTI crude oil has increased from $62.52 to $72.98 per barrel, reflecting a rise of 16.73%, while Brent crude oil has risen from $64.63 to $74.23 per barrel, showing a 14.85% increase [3][5]. - The rise in oil prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the worsening situation in the Middle East following Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, which has raised concerns about global oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz [3][5]. Domestic Oil Price Changes - In China, the domestic oil price adjustment cycle has seen a reference average price of $66 per barrel, leading to an increase of 155 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a rise of approximately 0.14 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline [5]. - The upcoming price adjustment on June 17 is expected to confirm a significant increase in domestic fuel prices, with some estimates suggesting a potential rise of around 250 yuan per ton [5][7]. - The current pricing cycle has been influenced by the recent surge in international oil prices, which has not yet been fully reflected in domestic pricing due to the timing of the price adjustment [5][7].