Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation into the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventories are being depleted. PP supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, while PE faces pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations [1]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, but the basis is weakening, and trading volume is average. The methanol market has weak supply and demand, and the rebound space is restricted by high production. The port inventory is slightly depleted, but MTO demand is weak, suppressing price rebounds [4]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, the natural rubber market has a strong sentiment to rise due to the strong performance of the synthetic rubber market. However, considering the weak demand, the upside is expected to be limited, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but the port inventory is unexpectedly increasing, limiting its self - driving force. Styrene has strong short - term performance due to export - driven inventory reduction, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene is expected to compress [10]. Urea - Urea futures are rising, and the spot market is mixed. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, lacking effective support for price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, with the main contract focusing on the 1760 - 1800 range [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are slightly rebounding, but the spot price is declining. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the upside of futures is expected to be limited. PVC futures are rising, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the upside is also expected to be restricted [13]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Glass futures are also oscillating, with weak supply - demand during the pre - holiday off - season. Both need to be vigilant against potential price drops [14]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are mainly influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and the US cold wave. Although the cold wave's impact is weakening, geopolitical premiums still support oil prices [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA supply - demand are weakening before the Spring Festival, but have strong support in the second quarter. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Polyester bottle - chip's supply is decreasing, and the price and processing fee will follow the cost [18]. LPG - LPG prices are rising. The upstream refinery operating rate is increasing, while the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The inventory situation is mixed, with the refinery inventory ratio increasing and the port inventory decreasing [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins Price Changes - L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased, with PP2609 rising 1.35% [1]. - Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with PP enterprise inventory dropping 7.85% [1]. - PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, while downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [1]. Methanol Price Changes - MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the basis weakened [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all rose [4]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78%, while port inventory increased by 1.55% [4]. - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, and downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56% [4]. Natural Rubber Price Changes - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices decreased slightly [7]. Production and Operating Rates - November production in some countries decreased, while December domestic tire production and export increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 2.94%, while factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Price Changes - Upstream crude oil and some raw material prices changed slightly, and styrene and pure benzene prices also had minor fluctuations [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain changed [10]. Urea Price Changes - Futures prices rose, and the spot market was mixed [12]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 2.64%, and the demand was weak [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda Price Changes - Caustic soda spot prices declined, and PVC spot and futures prices increased [13]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda supply - demand imbalance persisted, and PVC supply was high with weak demand [13]. Glass - Soda Ash Price Changes - Glass and soda ash futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices were stable [14]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash production was high, and glass production and sales were average during the pre - holiday off - season [14]. Crude Oil Price Changes - Brent and WTI prices decreased slightly, while SC increased by 2.62% [15]. Influencing Factors - Oil prices were affected by geopolitical tensions and the US cold wave [15]. Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain changed to varying degrees [18]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain decreased [18]. LPG Price Changes - LPG futures prices increased, and the basis weakened [19]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery inventory ratio increased, and port inventory decreased. The upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [19].

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 棉花：国际棉市缺乏明显利好因素指引，在美联储降息预期弱化，地缘局势 持续变化，以及外围谷物市场走低拖累下，棉价连续回落。上周国内外棉纱价格 均小幅上涨，负值价差继续扩大。替代原料价格小幅涨跌。现货市场基差报价小 幅回升，市场成交价格基本平稳。棉企库存较为充裕，积极报价促销，纺企逢下 跌点价增加，上涨过程中成交有所减少，年前补库进入最后阶段，局部成交略增。 下方空间相对有限，短期偏调整看待为主。 白糖：国际糖市多空力量进入短暂均衡状态。一方面，当前国际糖价仍显著 低于印度出口成本，该国增产压力向国际市场的传导效应相对有限；叠加巴西乙 醇折糖溢价突破 2 美分/磅，原糖远期供需结构得到边际改善，对期价形成支撑； 另一方面，全球食糖增产预期主导的供应压制仍在持续，原糖期价上行动能不足， 冲击 15 美分/磅关键压力位未果，最终整体维持区间震荡走势。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 经测 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 一、行情走势回顾 上周甲醇期货市场先抑后扬，前半周受伊朗局势降温影响，盘面重回基本面交易，港口高库存及沿海 MTO装置降负形成压制，2605合约跌至2182元/吨，后半周股市情绪外溢，加之部分品种供应有收缩预 期，化工板块情绪回暖，多个品种上涨，加之海外能源价格上涨及伊朗局势再度紧张，空头减仓，甲醇 期货上行。 现货市场区域价格分化，沿海地区方面，太仓进口价2263元/吨，环比上涨38元/吨；广东市场价2235元/ 吨，环比上涨10元/吨，主要受益于进口缩量预期及期货盘面带动。内陆地区则表现偏弱，鲁南市场价 2120元/吨，环比下降30元/吨；川渝主流市场价2155元/吨，环比下降35元/吨；陕西、内蒙古市场价分 别降至1860元/吨、1795元/吨，环比跌幅达95元/吨、47.5元/吨，主要受当地供应充足及下游需求疲软拖 累。国际市场价格走势同样分化。CFR中国主港现货价265美元/吨，环比减少2美元/吨，主要受前期到 港货源消化缓慢影响；FOB美国海湾现货价环比上涨20.06美元/吨至317.68美元/吨，FOB鹿特丹现货价 上涨8欧元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Recent oil price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical events in the Middle East and the cold wave in the United States. With geopolitical premiums declining and significant inventory builds in crude oil and refined products, oil prices are under pressure. However, the cold wave in the US has boosted overseas natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil, supporting oil prices. Currently, crude oil's own driving forces are limited, and short - term oil prices are still dominated by news. Brent crude should be watched for resistance above $66 per barrel, and attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1,198 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices remained basically flat, with a dull market sentiment and mainly downstream rigid demand procurement. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, and the comprehensive output slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the weekly shipment volume and shipment rate increased month - on - month, with little change in the float glass production line, and the weekly output and industry average capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. The photovoltaic glass had no new kiln shutdowns, and the in - production capacity and capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. Affected by the expected export - grabbing policy, the photovoltaic glass price remained stable, and the inventory continued to decline. Although the in - plant inventory of soda ash decreased overall and the macro sentiment improved recently, in the context of generally weak fundamentals, the short - term soda ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1,064 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices showed regional differentiation, with the overall spot price center rising slightly month - on - month. The profits of glass made from different fuels changed little overall, with the profit of petroleum coke - made glass turning negative. The spot market still mainly had rigid - demand transactions. On the supply side, the daily melting volume continued to increase slightly month - on - month, while the start - up rate and industry average capacity utilization rate remained basically flat. On the demand side, the performance of deep - processing orders was differentiated, and the start - up rate of Low - e glass was still at a relatively weak level. Real estate - related data showed that the industry was still in the adjustment stage. The shipment situation of glass enterprises varied, and the inventory also fluctuated. The overall in - plant inventory remained at a high level. As the Spring Festival approached and the consumption off - season arrived, downstream demand gradually decreased, and manufacturers were more willing to actively reduce inventory. It is expected that the rebound space of the futures price is limited, and the short - term trend will remain weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene continued to improve slightly, with a slight decrease in supply and a continued increase in the downstream comprehensive load. The port inventory decreased, but the absolute level of port inventory remained high, and its own driving force was still limited. Recently, styrene was driven by exports, and its port inventory decreased significantly. Coupled with news of unexpected shutdowns of domestic and foreign plants, the styrene trend was strong, driving up the absolute price of pure benzene. Recently, the profit of styrene has expanded significantly, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. However, styrene's downstream has cut production due to increased losses, and there are expectations of restarting two maintenance plants next week. It is expected that the room for further expansion of the price difference is limited, and there is an expectation of compression. Strategically, the unilateral fluctuation is large, so it is advisable to wait and see; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - **Styrene**: Driven by previous exports, the port inventory of styrene continued to decline, and the circulating supply was limited. The short - term supply - demand situation was temporarily tight. Coupled with the shutdown of the Xuyang styrene plant and the reduction of the load of the Tianjin Bohua plant during the week, the styrene futures price continued to rise. However, currently, the styrene industry has good profits, and the overall start - up is stable, with active forward over - sales. The downstream industry's losses have expanded, and some plants have shut down, actively selling styrene raw materials and downstream product inventories. Overall, the short - term supply - demand of styrene is temporarily tight. Coupled with the overall strength of the chemical sector driven by the inflow of off - industry funds, the short - term increase in styrene is significant. However, there are no new positive factors in the short term, the downstream negative feedback is intensifying, and there are expectations of restarting the Sinopec Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua plants next week. The short - term capital game has intensified, and caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, it is advisable to wait and see unilaterally; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the production in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to a reduction and shutdown, with a shrinking total supply and rising overseas raw material prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively high proportion of European exports have sufficient recent foreign trade orders, and their production has maintained a relatively high - level. Currently, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, but domestic sales have been slow, mostly maintaining rigid - demand sales, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high. In terms of inventory, China's natural rubber social inventory has continued the inventory accumulation trend. In summary, in the short term, driven by the strength of the synthetic rubber market, the natural rubber market has a strong bullish sentiment. However, considering the weak demand, it is expected that there is still significant upward pressure, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [6]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins were jointly driven by the rotation of funds into the chemical sector, geopolitical tensions, and the possible impact of the North American cold wave on supply, and their prices strengthened rapidly at the end of the week. From a static fundamental perspective, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory was destocked. The upstream inventory was low, and the price - holding intention was strong, but agents sold at a loss, the basis weakened significantly, and hedgers had no risk - free positions. Dynamically, for PP, due to many maintenance plans, the supply pressure has been relieved. Currently, the PDH profit is still low, and the production reduction drive is strong. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal plant maintenance. For PE, the maintenance has decreased, and the import is expected to be under pressure. Some full - density plants have switched to LLD production, increasing the pressure on standard products, and the demand has entered the off - season, with the downstream start - up rate weakening. In terms of sentiment, the short - covering demand has been released, and the overall trading volume this week was weaker than last week [9]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chips - **PX**: With high - profit margins, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased production, and currently, the PX load in Asia and China is at a historical high. In January, PX supply remained high. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded. The overall supply - demand of PX and PTA in the first quarter has weakened compared to expectations. It is expected that PX's own driving force will be limited before the Spring Festival. However, as PX trading switches to the March - April period, supported by tight supply - demand in the second quarter, the low - price support for PX is relatively strong. Last week, the cold wave in the US boosted overseas natural gas prices, which had a positive impact on some domestic chemical products (such as styrene, ethylene glycol, and some products with natural gas as raw material). At the same time, off - industry funds flowed into the chemical sector, driving up PX in the short term. However, the PX high point did not reach the mid - December high, and the physical PX market was slow to follow the increase. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern of PX, caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of funds. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton for PX, reduce long positions, and conduct mid - term rolling long - biased operations [11]. - **PTA**: Recently, there have been few changes in PTA plants. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded, the PTA supply - demand has gradually weakened, and the spot basis has weakened. Recently, driven by the large - scale inflow of funds into the chemical sector and the expectation of improved PTA supply - demand in the second quarter, the PTA futures price has increased significantly, and the PTA futures processing margin has expanded significantly. However, due to the large inventory build - up pressure in February in advance, PTA's own driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. Caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance above 5,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce long positions; conduct long - spread operations on the TA5 - 9 spread at low levels [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the near - term, ethylene glycol is still facing significant inventory build - up pressure. Since there are few domestic ethylene glycol plant maintenance plans from January to February, and with the commissioning of new plants such as Ningxia Changyi and BASF, the domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level. At the same time, the polyester plant production cut - back and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand have weakened the demand support for ethylene glycol. From the information of arrived and forecasted shipping schedules, the reduction rate of ethylene glycol imports is slow, and the inventory build - up amplitude from January to February is expected to be high. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve in the second quarter, and inventory is expected to be reduced, mainly due to the shutdown of multiple large - scale domestic ethylene glycol plants and the spring maintenance of coal - based ethylene glycol plants, which will significantly reduce the supply expectation. Strategically, conduct long - spread operations on the EG5 - 9 spread at low levels; sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high levels [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak. Currently, the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream orders are gradually decreasing, and the number of yarn mills reducing or stopping production will increase around the end of the month. Recently, the sharp increase in the cost side has driven up the short - fiber price, and some downstream enterprises have followed up with replenishment. However, as the demand side weakens, the downstream is mostly waiting and seeing after the short - fiber price increase. The market will enter a digestion stage later. Overall, the absolute price driving force of short - fiber before the festival is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PF03 is the same as that of PTA; the PF futures processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short the spread when it is high [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Recently, the implementation of maintenance plans for multiple polyester bottle - chip plants has been carried out one after another. In particular, a 1.2 - million - ton - per - year polyester bottle - chip plant in Jiangyin has been shut down since mid - January and will be under maintenance until March. There are still maintenance plans at the end of January. The domestic supply is expected to decrease significantly, and recently, the plants have continued to reduce inventory, supporting the processing margin. At the same time, the demand will weaken seasonally. With both supply and demand decreasing, it is expected that the absolute price and processing margin of bottle chips from January to February will still follow the cost - side fluctuations. Strategically, pay attention to the support around 6,200 yuan/ton for PR2603; the processing margin of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton; sell out - of - the - money put options PR2603 - P - 6200 at high levels [11]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inland plant inventory has decreased, but the high production volume restricts the rebound space, and the demand is expected to decline in the future. Although the port inventory has slightly decreased, the MTO demand is weak (many plants are under maintenance or have reduced loads), and the inventory reduction amplitude of the 05 contract has significantly weakened, suppressing the price rebound height. Currently, there are two key variables in the market: one is the reduction of imported methanol arrivals under the background of low methanol production in Iran. As of the latest data, the shipment volume from Iran is 350,000 tons; the other is the risk premium brought by geopolitical factors [13][14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the prices of caustic soda in the mainstream regions continued to decline. The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. Low - price transactions frequently occurred during the week, impacting the market. The unloading of products by the main downstream enterprises was still difficult, and the order transactions were light. From the supply side, there were sporadic short - term shutdowns of chlor - alkali plants last week, but some chlor - alkali plants that had previously reduced loads resumed production, increasing the operating load rate. High - level operation combined with difficult sales led to continued inventory accumulation of caustic soda last week. On the demand side, the unloading situation of the two main downstream industries was poor. Under the strong chlorine situation, enterprises had no incentive to reduce production, and the problem of product backlogs at downstream enterprises continued. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the caustic soda price is under pressure in the short term and is still expected to decline. This week, the East China region faces monthly order contracts, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been alleviated. Coupled with the weak price transmission in the main regions, it is expected that the caustic soda market will continue to be weak [15]. - **PVC**: Last week, the domestic PVC price fluctuated after an increase, supported by positive economic expectations and bullish long - term expectations for commodities. The short - term increase in commodity prices in the market slightly pushed up the spot price. From the supply side, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased last week, and some enterprises had unplanned production cuts. However, the overall supply remained at a high level. The downstream production demand gradually weakened before the Spring Festival, and the foreign trade exports continued to be good but decreased in volume month - on - month. The inventory accumulation pressure before the festival in the industry continued. Currently, the macro - economic expectations are relatively strong, and combined with the strong PVC exports, the PVC price trend is relatively firm. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday, the industry inventory is accumulating rapidly, and combined with the weak support from raw material calcium carbide, the expected significant increase in price is limited. In the short term, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern due to the cost support at the bottom and the supply - demand pressure at the top. It is expected that the PVC operating rate will continue to decline this week. Currently, some downstream enterprises are having pre - festival promotions, and the operating rate has increased. The export is expected to remain strong. However, considering that some downstream enterprises have started to take holidays one after another and the price of raw material calcium carbide is falling, it is expected that the PVC market will remain stable [15]. Urea - On January 23, the urea futures price fluctuated and closed higher, and the spot price increased slightly overall. Some regions raised their ex - factory quotes, but the downstream acceptance of the price was limited, and there were still some orders at low prices. New order transactions were relatively cautious. There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week. As the previously shut - down plants gradually resume production, the daily urea output fluctuates around the high level of 200,000 tons, and the short - term supply of goods is sufficient. In terms of demand, there is still some agricultural demand in the Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangdong regions. The compound fertilizer industry is expected to reduce its operating rate due to the decrease in finished product sales volume. The operating rate of the board industry gradually decreases in the twelfth lunar month, and the overall industrial demand for urea has weakened. Urea inventory continued to decline this week, and the inventory reduction rhythm was faster than in previous years. This week, urea enterprises have successively launched the Spring Festival order - receiving plan, and it is expected that the inventory will be further reduced. Overall, the urea price is still restricted by the weak supply - demand situation, and the market transactions need to increase. However, the agricultural demand in some regions and the inventory reduction expectation have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate in a wide range in the short term. The main urea contract should be watched in the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream demand and the inventory reduction rhythm [16]. LPG - No specific views on the LPG market trend and investment strategies are provided in the LPG report. It only presents price, inventory, and operating rate data [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On January 23, Brent crude was at $64.06 per barrel, down $1.82 or 2.84% from January 22; WTI was at $59.36 per barrel, up $1.71 or 2.88

Market Overview - The global market has been influenced by geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar, leading to a divergence in pricing across markets[2][3] - A-shares and H-shares have shown strong performance, while US stocks have been weak, particularly in the technology sector[3][7] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw the ChiNext Index rise by 2.62% over the two-week period ending January 23, 2026, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.35%[8][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84%, contrasting with the Hang Seng Index's decline of 0.36%[8] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 98.4, while the S&P 500 stands at 89.8, indicating higher valuation in the Chinese market[11] - The PB ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 98.4, compared to the S&P 500's 94.3, suggesting a similar trend in valuation[13] Bond Market Insights - The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.22%, significantly higher than China's 10-year yield of 1.82%, indicating a substantial yield gap[17] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 is low, estimated between 4-5%[21] Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals have seen significant gains, with silver prices increasing by 26.7% over the two-week period[42] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $65.88 per barrel, reflecting a strong performance in the energy sector[42] Economic Indicators - The overall return rates for various asset classes, including stocks and bonds, are generally between 1-3%[28] - The average dividend yield for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is 3.5%, indicating a relatively attractive yield compared to other indices[28]

Group 1 - The first trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis took place in Abu Dhabi, with no signs of compromise on territorial issues [2][5] - The discussions were constructive overall, with significant divisions remaining on political matters, while some progress was made in military discussions regarding troop disengagement and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms [2][6] - The next round of talks is expected to occur on February 1 in Abu Dhabi [4] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky described the talks as constructive, emphasizing the importance of U.S. oversight in the process of ending the war [6] - The military representatives from all three parties agreed to prepare a list of topics for the next meeting, focusing on potential solutions for ending the conflict [6] - The current discussions did not address energy ceasefire issues [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Cost Strengthening, Bullish Market Uplift (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin [2] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PX continues its strong pattern due to improved downstream demand since Q4 2026, positive news, and supply - demand remaining strong with supply tightness easing recently [3] - The pure benzene market has shifted from oversupply to undersupply, and the short - term market is still supported, but there may be an opportunity to shrink the processing spread [4] - Styrene has seen significant price increases in both futures and spot markets recently. The short - term market is bullish, and there may be an opportunity to shrink the pure benzene - styrene spread later [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory PX Market Cost - Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, causing the PX outer - market price to rise continuously. The spot - futures price is in high - level oscillation, and the basis has widened. The January PX listed price of Sinopec is raised to 7,500 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Zhejiang Petrochemical's reform is under maintenance, and the PX load has decreased. This week's PX output is 743,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%. The domestic and Asian PX capacity utilization rates have also declined [3] Demand - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA is 75.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.69% [3] Summary and Outlook - PX is expected to maintain a strong supply - demand situation in 2026. New investments may be realized after Q4, and the supply tightness has eased recently [3] Pure Benzene Market Spot and Futures - The futures price of pure benzene has risen significantly since early January. Rising oil prices, geopolitical news, and good downstream demand are the main driving factors [4] Supply and Demand - In December 2025, the national pure benzene output was 1.9228 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The import volume was estimated at 470,000 tons. The market has shifted from oversupply to undersupply [4] Inventory - As of this week, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports is 297,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.33% and a year - on - year increase of 107.69% [4] Profit - The spot price difference between pure benzene and downstream styrene has widened, prompting factories to lock in profits and buy pure benzene for hedging, further driving up the price [4] Summary and Outlook - In Q4 2025, new capacities led to oversupply. Recently, the short - term market is supported, and there may be an opportunity to shrink the processing spread [4] Styrene Market Spot and Futures Performance - The styrene main contract has risen for multiple consecutive trading days, mainly due to cost support and a continued tight - balance situation [5] Industrial Chain Profit - The average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China this week is 441 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.79% [5] Industrial Chain Operation - This week, the total output of styrene plants in China is 349,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The capacity utilization rate is 69.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.23% [5] Downstream - The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene in China this week is 267,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.16% [5] Inventory - As of this week, the total inventory of the main styrene storage areas in South China is 12,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36.84% [5] Summary and Outlook - Styrene's performance in the traditional peak season in 2025 was disappointing. Recently, the market has been bullish, but there may be a risk of weak downstream demand later [6]

Oil Market - Oil prices fell on Thursday, with WTI March contract closing down $1.26 at $59.36 per barrel, a decline of 2.08% [2] - Brent March contract closed down $1.18 at $64.06 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [2] - EIA report indicated an increase in crude oil inventory by 3.6 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.1 million barrel increase [2] - Gasoline inventory reached its highest level since 2021, with exports dropping by over 500,000 barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the drone attack on a major Russian oil terminal, continue to impact oil prices [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 1.89% to 2592 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 increased by 1.65% to 3135 yuan/ton [3] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels (8.22%) week-on-week, while Fujairah's inventory increased by 13,600 barrels (1.35%) [3] - The market structure for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply from Venezuela [3][4] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.45% to 3157 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipments increasing by 15.1% week-on-week [5] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt producers decreased by 0.5% week-on-week but increased by 3.5% year-on-year [5] - The market is currently balancing weak demand with strong cost expectations, influenced by geopolitical tensions [5] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 increased by 105 yuan/ton to 15850 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing gains [6] - China's rubber tire production is projected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year, while synthetic rubber production is expected to decline by 20.2% [6] - The rise in butadiene rubber prices is attributed to supply shortages and increased demand from tire manufacturers [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5298 yuan/ton, up 2.79%, while EG2605 closed at 3847 yuan/ton, up 4.28% [7] - PX futures closed at 7390 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.55% increase [7] - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 73.04%, down 1.39% week-on-week [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2238 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $260 to $264 per ton [8] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [8] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to pressure from port inventory [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China range from 6320 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - HDPE and LDPE prices have increased compared to last week, indicating a recovery in demand [9] - Inventory levels are expected to rise as factories prepare for the upcoming holiday [9] PVC - PVC prices have increased across various regions, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4530 to 4630 yuan/ton [10] - Supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing down, leading to a bearish outlook [10] - The market is expected to experience bottoming trends due to changes in export tax policies [10] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 1776 yuan/ton [11] - Demand is expected to remain strong due to pre-spring planting preparations, although market acceptance of prices will be crucial [11] - Urea inventory has decreased by 4.07%, supporting manufacturers' pricing strategies [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased to 1185 yuan/ton, with stable pricing in the market [12] - Recent production rates have shown slight fluctuations, with a decrease in output [12] - The market is expected to face pressure from rising supply and stable demand [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a slight increase, closing at 1057 yuan/ton, with stable demand observed [14] - The industry is preparing for potential production increases, but seasonal demand may decline as the holiday approaches [14] - Overall supply-demand dynamics remain challenging, with expectations of inventory accumulation [14]

Group 1 - The U.S. Energy Secretary called for a doubling of global oil production to meet rising demand and prevent energy poverty, highlighting significant challenges in global energy supply and access [1] - As a result of this announcement, international oil prices fell, with light crude oil futures dropping by $1.26 to $59.36 per barrel, a decrease of 2.08%, and Brent crude oil futures down by $1.18 to $64.06 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [1] Group 2 - The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, following a previous increase of 5.278 million barrels [2] - The International Energy Agency warned of a significant oversupply in the global oil market by the first quarter of 2026 unless major supply disruptions occur [2] - Analysts noted that the current oil price is influenced by various factors, with oversupply becoming a clear concern, and that the market is expected to return to fundamental trading after the end of the European cold wave [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical tensions have been a core factor influencing oil prices, with recent incidents in Libya and Kazakhstan causing declines in oil exports [3] - The market is currently characterized by mixed factors, with potential geopolitical pressures from the U.S. and Israel on Iran possibly increasing risk premiums, although the likelihood of a full-scale ground war remains low [3] - The key variable for the oil market remains the expectation of production cuts, as further declines in oil prices could lead to reduced U.S. shale oil production and prompt OPEC+ to adjust output quotas [3] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to oil prices hitting cyclical lows, as conflicts have restricted oil production and exports from Russia and Iran [4] - OPEC+'s production policy is a critical variable for future market conditions, with the group expected to maintain stable production increases in the first quarter [4] - The geopolitical situation and U.S. tariffs are also seen as significant factors affecting global economic conditions and oil demand growth [4]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - U.S. Energy Secretary urged to double global oil production to meet rising demand and prevent energy poverty, highlighting significant challenges in global energy supply and access [1] - International oil prices fell in response to the call for increased production [2] - As of the latest close, WTI crude futures fell by 1.57% and Brent crude futures dropped by 1.23% [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - London gold spot price increased by 3.31%, reaching $4,935.75 per ounce, while London silver surged nearly 6% [5] - Domestic futures for gold and silver also saw significant gains [6] Group 3: Turkish Central Bank Policy - Turkish Central Bank announced a 100 basis point cut in the policy rate, reducing it from 38% to 37%, indicating a continued tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved [7] - Following the announcement, Turkey's main banking index dropped over 2% [8] Group 4: Oil Supply Concerns - The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [9] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors and regional supply-demand imbalances are currently influencing the oil market [10][11]