油价走势

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沙特希望继续扩大增产,油价受挫
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 11:04
能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 05 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号: F03095619 投资咨询资格证号: 二、沙特希望继续增产 据知情人士透露,沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月继续加速石油 增产,因为沙特更加重视夺回失去的市场份额。知情人士称,沙特欧 佩克+中占据越来越大的主导地位,希望该组织在 8 月和可能的 9 月 至少增加 41.1 万桶/日的产量。 三、关注伊核协议 据纽约时报报道,特朗普政府正提议达成一项协议,允许伊朗继 续进行低浓度铀浓缩活动,同时美国和其他国家将制定更详细的计 划,以阻止伊朗发展核武器,同时允许其获得用于新核电站的核燃料。 伊朗官员表示,将在几天后做出回应。 四、后市展望 关注沙特希望继续增产及伊核协议,油价当前位置震荡。后期随 着石油季节性旺季到来,油价存在一定向上动力,不过上升空间不大, 上方压力来自于 OPEC+增产决心。远期来看,由于供应端维持增长趋 势,而需求受制于经济复苏前景低迷以及新能源的替代,油价仍有下 挫空间。 Z0017388 沙特希望继续扩大增产,油价受挫 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格下滑 ...
原油成品油早报-20250528
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 09:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. OPEC+ is discussing a large - scale production increase in July without a final decision. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased this week, while US commercial crude oil seasonally increased, with absolute inventory lower than the annual average and slight increases in gasoline and diesel inventories. In the short term, refinery profits are in high - level fluctuation, refinery operations have risen as expected, leading indicators of US production have declined, the US - Iran negotiation is deadlocked, and the US continues to impose sanctions on Iran and Russia, so oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward. In the medium - to - long term, crude oil remains bearish due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 21 to May 27, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated, with a decrease in the latest data; BRENT prices decreased by $0.65; OMAN prices decreased by $0.73; domestic gasoline prices increased by $30.00; Japanese naphtha - BRT increased by $5.65; Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $1.65; the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange FU decreased by 65 points; and the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange BU decreased by 10 points [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Trump warned Netanyahu not to take actions that could jeopardize the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the negotiations fail. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister said that OPEC+ has not discussed a 410,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in July. The G7 and the EU's plan to tighten the Russian oil price cap to $50 per barrel is unacceptable. - Goldman Sachs predicts that non - OPEC shale oil production (excluding Russia) may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day in the next two years, and new natural gas projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar may increase OPEC's LNG production to an average of 200,000 barrels per day per year [5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending May 16, US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 843,000 barrels to 400.5 million barrels, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443 million barrels. US domestic crude oil production increased by 500 barrels per day to 1.3392 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 138,000 barrels per day to 350,700 barrels per day. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with an increase in both gasoline and diesel from major refineries and a decrease from local refineries. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries decreased [6].
原油日报:聚焦欧佩克会议-20250528
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term neutral for oil prices, medium - term bearish allocation [3] Core View - As the OPEC meeting approaches, the market is concerned about whether OPEC will announce further production increases in July. However, since OPEC announced accelerated production increases in April, Saudi Arabia's export volume has not increased, and it is urgent to clarify whether OPEC or Saudi Arabia has actually increased production [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 64 cents to $60.89 per barrel, a decline of 1.04%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 65 cents to $64.09 per barrel, a decline of 1.0%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.85% at 454 yuan per barrel [1] - Data released by the US Department of Commerce on the 27th showed that the preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders in April plunged 6.3%, with an expected value of - 7.8% and the previous value revised from 9.20% to 7.50%. Affected by the sharp decline in commercial aircraft orders, US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, and core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military hardware) fell 1.3%, the largest decline since last October [1] - Goldman Sachs: In the next two years, the oil production growth of shale oil projects in non - OPEC countries except Russia may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day. New natural gas projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar may increase OPEC's liquefied natural gas production to an average of 200,000 barrels per day per year in the next two years. Lower oil prices in 2025 - 2026 (i.e., a short - term surplus) may lead to an earlier and lower peak in US shale oil production [1] - Iran set the price of light crude oil sold to the Asian market in June at a premium of $1.80 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [1] - Trump warned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in a phone call not to take any actions that could endanger the negotiations between the US and Iran on a new nuclear deal. Israel has been preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if the US - Iran nuclear negotiations fail in the next few weeks. Netanyahu may order an attack without Trump's approval, but Trump emphasized that "other options" are also being considered and hopes to try diplomatic solutions first [1] Strategy - Short - term neutral for oil prices, medium - term bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: OPEC significantly increases production, macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply tightening of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]
油价:供应增量压制 库存等数据变化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-25 05:46
Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are under pressure from multiple factors, including potential supply increases and limited geopolitical premiums, despite seasonal demand expectations for refined oil products [1] Industry Summary - Geopolitical premiums are providing some support, but potential supply increases are suppressing oil prices [1] - The third accelerated production increase by OPEC+ may impact the market [1] - Trade tensions are expected to lead to long-term demand suppression [1] Company Summary - U.S. oil production stands at 13.392 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.04% and a year-on-year change of 2.23% [1] - U.S. net crude oil imports are at 2.582 million barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.45% and a year-on-year increase of 33.57% [1] - U.S. refinery throughput is 16.49 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.54% and a year-on-year change of 0.05% [1] - U.S. refinery utilization rate is at 90.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percentage points [1] - China's major refinery utilization rate is 73.26%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percentage points [1] - Shandong independent refineries have a utilization rate of 46.09%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.2 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 9.0 percentage points [1] Inventory Summary - U.S. total oil inventory (excluding SPR) is 1.223 billion barrels, compared to 1.218 billion barrels the previous week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.19% [1] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory is 444.3 million barrels, compared to 442 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [1] - U.S. gasoline inventory is 226 million barrels, compared to 225 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.57% [1] - U.S. distillate inventory is 104 million barrels, unchanged from the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.80% [1] - European crude oil inventory is 56.794 million barrels, compared to 55.133 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.60% [1] - European refined oil inventory is 5.18 million barrels, compared to 5.265 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.07% [1] - Global floating storage is 88.198 million barrels, compared to 83.761 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 48.08% [1] Price Spread Summary - The crack spread in the U.S. Gulf Coast is $21.61 per barrel, down from $22.91 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 14.84% [1] - The Brent transatlantic crack spread is $26.26 per barrel, down from $26.56 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 21.53% [1] - The Middle East crack spread is $13.71 per barrel, up from $12.52 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 10.11% [1] - The Southeast Asia crack spread is $12.40 per barrel, up from $11.76 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 34.99% [1] Price Differential Summary - The WTI 1-6 month spread is $1.69 per barrel, down from $1.95 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent 1-6 month spread is $1.37 per barrel, up from $1.27 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent-WTI spread is $3.24 per barrel, down from $3.38 per barrel the previous week [1] - The EFS is $1.79 per barrel, up from $1.54 per barrel the previous week [1] - The SC-BRENT spread is -$1.07 per barrel, down from -$0.70 per barrel the previous week [1]
石油化工行业周报(2025/5/19—2025/5/24):芳烃盈利出现分化,PX走强而纯苯走弱-20250524
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-24 13:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting a divergence in aromatics profitability with PX strengthening while pure benzene weakens [4][5]. Core Insights - Aromatics prices have followed a downward trend alongside oil prices, with pure benzene margins at 619 CNY/ton, near historical lows, and PX margins at -41 USD/ton, showing some recovery from previous lows [4][5]. - The demand for pure benzene is suppressed due to low profitability in downstream products, while PX demand is positively influenced by the recovery in PTA production and margins [4][13]. - The report anticipates a short-term stabilization for pure benzene and a gradual recovery in the medium to long term as overseas refineries exit the market [4][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing mixed trends, with oil prices declining and drilling day rates showing variability, indicating potential for future increases as global capital expenditures rise [4][26]. - The refining sector is seeing improved profitability due to a rebound in oil prices, although the overall margins remain low [4][19]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to 64.78 USD/barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.54%, while WTI prices also fell [4][26]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased to 443 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising as well, indicating a widening supply-demand trend [4][28]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 566, reflecting a reduction in exploration activity [4][36]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin decreased to 12.23 USD/barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread also saw a slight decline [4][19]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [4][19]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have been rising, with the average price reaching 4922 CNY/ton, indicating a positive trend in the polyester supply chain [4][19]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry remains average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4][19]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. in the polyester sector [4][19].
PTA:油价上涨乏力且下游存减产预期 PTA反弹承压
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-22 02:15
Market Overview - On May 21, PTA futures experienced a slight upward trend, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a stable basis for spot prices. The trading range for May cargo was between 4855 and 4935, with some transactions slightly higher, while June cargo was traded at a basis of 120-140 [1][4]. Cost Analysis - As of May 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 355 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 356 CNY/ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: PTA operating rates increased to 76.9%, up by 4.4% from the previous week [3]. - Demand: The comprehensive operating rate for polyester rose to 95%, an increase of 0.8%. Despite forecasts of production cuts due to high raw material prices, the demand for polyester remains relatively stable, with low inventory levels in the polyester factories. The price of polyester yarn has shown mixed trends, but overall sales remain weak [3]. Market Outlook - In late May, PTA facilities are expected to restart, but future maintenance plans remain unclear. With rising raw material prices and increasing losses in downstream polyester products, there is a tendency for production cuts among some polyester factories. This has led to a weakening expectation in the supply-demand balance for PTA, resulting in a noticeable decline in basis this week. However, following the maintenance of a PTA facility in East China, the basis has stabilized somewhat. Short-term oil price increases are limited, and the intention for production cuts in downstream polyester factories puts pressure on PTA prices. The strategy suggests limited downside potential for TA as long as the supply-demand tightness persists and oil prices do not fall significantly, with a focus on support around 4600 [4].
EIA原油库存意外上升 短期油市前景承压
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 15:39
Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 1.3 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 900,000 barrels, putting short-term pressure on oil prices [1] - Gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 600,000 barrels, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [1] - Despite weak demand, refinery processing activity increased, with an average processing rate of 16.5 million barrels per day, reflecting preparations for the upcoming summer driving season [1] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reached 443.2 million barrels, which is still 6% lower than the five-year average [1] - Propane/propylene inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels, indicating tight supply conditions [1] - Gasoline and distillate production increased to 9.6 million barrels per day and 4.7 million barrels per day, respectively, contributing to market oversupply [2] Demand Trends - Over the past four weeks, the average daily supply of petroleum products in the U.S. was 19.6 million barrels, down 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Gasoline demand decreased by 1% year-on-year, while distillate demand fell by 4.2%, highlighting overall weak consumption [1] - Jet fuel demand showed a positive trend, increasing by 4% year-on-year, indicating signs of recovery in the travel industry [1] Import Dynamics - Average crude oil imports were 6.1 million barrels per day, up by 24,700 barrels week-on-week, but down 13.5% year-on-year [2] - Gasoline imports reached 747,000 barrels per day, and distillate imports were 141,000 barrels per day, contributing to inventory growth [2]
能源日报-20250520
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 12:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]
隔夜欧美·5月16日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 23:44
Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% at 42,322.75 points and the S&P 500 up 0.41% at 5,916.93 points, while the Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 19,112.32 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Amazon and Meta down over 2%, Tesla down over 1%, and slight declines in Apple, Nvidia, and Google; Netflix rose over 2%, while Microsoft and Intel saw minor increases [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Up Fintech down over 8%, Alibaba and WeRide down over 7%, and Futu Holdings down over 5%; JD.com, Baidu, and NIO also saw declines of over 3% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed higher across the board, with Germany's DAX up 0.72% at 23,695.59 points, France's CAC40 up 0.21% at 7,853.47 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.57% at 8,633.75 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.74% at $3,243.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.07% at $32.79 per ounce [1] - International oil prices fell significantly, with the main U.S. oil contract down 2.31% at $61.69 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.22% at $64.62 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.24% to 100.83, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 69 basis points against the dollar to 7.2045 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 7.95 basis points to 3.963%, the 3-year yield down 9.23 basis points to 3.951%, the 5-year yield down 10.6 basis points to 4.056%, the 10-year yield down 10.08 basis points to 4.434%, and the 30-year yield down 8.09 basis points to 4.89% [1] - European bond yields also declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 5.2 basis points to 4.658%, France's 10-year yield down 8.5 basis points to 3.291%, Germany's 10-year yield down 7.7 basis points to 2.619%, Italy's 10-year yield down 8.4 basis points to 3.624%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 8.2 basis points to 3.233% [1]
建信期货原油日报-20250515
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 03:41
行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 数据来源:wind,建信期货研究发展部 API 数据显示,美国原油库存增长 428 万桶,但成品油库存回落明显,叠加 宏观预 ...