Market Review - The international environment has become increasingly complex, with gold leading the rise among major asset classes. In the first half of 2025, uncertainties in U.S. policies, global trade, and geopolitical factors have intensified, particularly due to the "America First" policies of the Trump administration, which have significantly disrupted global capital markets. As a result, global asset volatility has increased, with gold leading gains, a weakening dollar, differentiated equity performance, and fluctuations in the bond market [2][10][9]. U.S. Market - The Trump administration's policies are expected to lead to a soft landing for the economy. The labor market is gradually cooling, with limited upward movement in the unemployment rate. Consumer spending is being affected by layoffs, tariffs, and demand exhaustion, but income growth is providing some support. Corporate investment sentiment is weakening, and profit growth is slowing, but the extent is manageable [2][30][36]. - Inflation is facing downward pressure, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be delayed. Tariffs are likely to push prices up, particularly in the third quarter. The federal budget expansion will continue, and debt pressure is unlikely to ease significantly [2][30][36]. Dollar Cycle - A weak dollar cycle is expected to begin, leading to a rebalancing of global asset allocation. The dollar is likely to enter a long-term bear market due to interest rate differentials, inflation differentials, and pressures from international capital allocation. Historical data suggests that a new weak dollar cycle would likely lead to higher commodity prices and lower U.S. Treasury yields, with U.S. stocks underperforming emerging market equities [2][30][36]. - In the second half of the year, the dollar may still experience fluctuations due to the soft landing of the U.S. economy, sticky inflation, and delayed interest rate cuts. Geopolitical and trading factors may also drive short-term rebounds in the dollar [2][30][36]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The focus is on profit structure recovery, with expectations for upward potential. The domestic economy is expected to stabilize under supportive policies, leading to continued profit recovery in certain sectors. The liquidity environment is favorable, with foreign capital remaining optimistic about China's economic and policy certainty. The anticipated inflow of southbound capital and the active primary market will create investment opportunities in the secondary market [2][30][36]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for Hong Kong stocks in Q3, with potential for profit and valuation recovery in Q4 as domestic policy effects become evident and U.S. Treasury yields marginally decline. Key investment themes include technology innovation sectors, quality assets in domestic consumption supported by policy, and stable dividend-paying assets [2][30][36].

分析师表示，第一项催化因素是美联储年度压力测试的结果。测试显示，在假设的经济衰退情景下，所 有22家接受测试的银行的普通股一级资本充足率(CET1)均高于最低要求。分析师认为，测试结果可能 促使资金重新配置至地区性银行，投资者已开始计入CET1资本要求降低的可能性。 数据显示，自今年年初以来，截至上周五收盘，美国地区性银行股(KRX)累计下跌2.9%，落后于大型银 行股9.1%的涨幅、以及标普500指数5%的涨幅。 美银证券表示，美国地区银行股一直落后于大型银行股和整体股市，不过一些政策和宏观因素可能改变 这种状况。分析师Ebrahim Poonawala列出了一些可能促使地区性银行股迎头赶上的催化因素，并特别 指出，若出现有助于增强市场对美联储降息和实现经济软着陆信心的利好因素，将成为提振地区性银行 股的关键。 分析师在报告中写道："虽然地区性银行股此前表现不佳，但我们认为宏观经济前景改善及银行并购交 易的回暖，将成为推动该板块资金流入的催化剂。" 第二项催化因素是将于7月3日发布的美国6月非农就业报告。分析师指出："如果就业市场出现明显裂 痕，可能重新点燃对信贷质量的担忧——尽管目前大多数投资者对此几乎未 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing rapid shifts in sentiment due to various driving factors, including geopolitical risks, unexpected policy announcements, and conflicting macroeconomic data [1][2] - Geopolitical events, such as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran facilitated by the U.S., have a direct and strong impact on market sentiment, leading to a significant drop in oil prices (over 11%) and a rise in U.S. stock markets [1] - Unexpected policy announcements, particularly from political figures like Trump regarding trade negotiations and sanctions, can quickly reverse market gains, highlighting the fragility of the current optimistic sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - The presence of contradictory macroeconomic signals, such as a decline in U.S. GDP alongside an increase in core PCE, indicates early signs of "stagflation," complicating market assessments of economic conditions [2] - The uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve policies is heightened by these macroeconomic indicators, potentially affecting market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Upcoming bank stress test results, while routine, could amplify market vulnerabilities if negative surprises occur, especially following the banking turmoil of 2023 [2] Group 3 - The focus for the upcoming week will shift to key economic data, with the U.S. non-farm payroll report being crucial for assessing labor market health and its implications for economic growth and inflation [3] - The importance of the services PMI is emphasized, as the services sector is a major component of the U.S. economy, while global manufacturing challenges are indicated by China's PMI contraction [3] - European inflation and employment data will also play a significant role in shaping the European Central Bank's policy outlook [3] Group 4 - The upcoming holiday factors, such as Canada Day and U.S. Independence Day, are expected to reduce market liquidity, which could lead to more volatile market reactions to economic data and unexpected news [4] - In a low liquidity environment, even expected data releases may trigger more severe market movements, increasing the risk of "flash crashes" or "flash rallies" [4] Group 5 - The market is entering a critical period characterized by multiple intertwined uncertainties, including geopolitical risks, policy changes, conflicting macro data, and holiday liquidity [5] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant, focusing not only on the data results but also on their potential impacts on economic outlooks and policy expectations [5] - Effective risk management and flexible response strategies are essential in navigating this complex environment, as the market's next direction will largely depend on the evolution of these interacting forces [5]

Economic Growth and Structure - The Russian economy has shown resilience with an average GDP growth of over 4% in the past two years, surpassing the global average, and a 1.5% growth rate in the first four months of this year [2] - Non-resource GDP growth is more robust than overall growth, indicating a shift away from reliance on fossil fuel exports [2] - Inflation has decreased to single digits, allowing for potential cautious monetary policy easing [2] Transition to Balanced Growth - The key task for Russia this year is to ensure a transition to balanced economic growth, characterized by moderate inflation, low unemployment, and sustained positive development [3] - Five areas of transformation have been identified: changing employment and consumption patterns, optimizing the investment environment, enhancing technological innovation, improving the quality of foreign trade, and developing the military-industrial complex [3][4] Policy Discussions - The forum provided a platform for discussions on achieving a soft landing for the economy and structural changes, with varying opinions on the current economic situation [5][6] - The Ministry of Economic Development views the economy as being on the brink of crisis, while others believe it is merely in a cooling phase [6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The central bank aims to maintain inflation at a target level of 4%, emphasizing the importance of sustainable economic growth [6] - There is a desire in the market for lower financing costs, with potential savings for the federal budget if the key interest rate is reduced [6] Currency Exchange Rate - The ruble is expected to gradually return to predicted levels as inflation eases and monetary policy is relaxed, with forecasts suggesting an average exchange rate of 94.3 rubles per dollar by 2025 [7] - Some experts argue for a moderate depreciation of the ruble to create favorable conditions for economic development [7]

Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to retaliatory actions from Iran, escalating geopolitical tensions. However, market fatigue regarding geopolitical risks has led investors to focus more on Federal Reserve policy and economic data, resulting in gold prices not significantly rising despite the conflict escalation. The uncertainty in geopolitical situations still provides some safe-haven support for gold [2] - Recent U.S. economic data shows signs of weakness, with May retail sales dropping 0.9%, significantly worse than the expected -0.1%, and industrial production unexpectedly declining by 0.2%. This indicates weakening consumer demand and manufacturing momentum, potentially heightening concerns about the difficulty of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, indirectly supporting gold's safe-haven attributes [2] - Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve pushed the U.S. dollar index to a high of 99.03 on June 19, fluctuating around 98.64 on June 23. A stronger dollar directly suppresses gold priced in dollars, with New York gold futures facing pressure around $3,380. Additionally, the two-year Treasury yield dropped 5 basis points to 3.88%, while the ten-year yield remained above 4.2%. Rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to short-term pressure on gold prices [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - The spot gold price opened at $3,389.87 per ounce, experiencing significant fluctuations throughout the day, closing at $3,369.04 with a small bearish candle. The daily closing price is near the moving average, indicating potential oscillation around this level, with a downward bias in price structure [5] - Hourly price movements are entangled with moving averages, showing no clear direction. Currently near the previous day's low, it is advisable to wait for the market to choose a direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart indicates a strong downward movement at the previous day's close, suggesting the likelihood of new lows, with a recommendation to sell on rallies [6] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver opened at $35.9665, showing intraday fluctuations with a slight upward bias, closing at $36.080 with a small doji candle. The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, with multiple retests indicating stabilization, suggesting a bullish outlook and opportunities for long positions [8] - The hourly chart indicates that the pullback is nearly complete, beginning a bottoming oscillation phase, with a mixed directional outlook. It is recommended to wait for the market to establish a clear direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart shows a significant drop at the previous day's close, finding support at the bottom, and currently showing signs of a rebound, likely within a range-bound movement [8]

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to 60.5 in June, surpassing market expectations of 58.0, ending a five-month decline and signaling greater economic resilience than anticipated [1][3] - The rebound in consumer confidence is primarily driven by improved evaluations of the current job market and the gradual absorption of tariff impacts, which are providing support for consumer spending [1][3] Group 2 - Financial markets reacted swiftly to the data, with major U.S. stock indices continuing to rise; the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.72%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.81%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.93% [4] - The rise in consumer confidence is interpreted as a sign that domestic demand may help the economy avoid recession, with technology and discretionary consumer sectors leading the gains [4] Group 3 - Despite the current rebound in consumer confidence, the market remains cautious about the U.S. economic outlook, with key data such as the FHFA house price index and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index yet to be released [5] - Goldman Sachs suggests that the rebound in consumer confidence may be temporary, citing rising credit card debt default rates and the resumption of student loan repayments as potential pressures on future consumer spending [5] Group 4 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report and core PCE data will be critical in determining whether the improvement in consumer confidence can be sustained [7] - If employment growth slows or inflation falls more than expected, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to signal clearer interest rate cuts, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]

新加坡SGMC Capital创始人兼首席执行官Massimiliano Bondurri表示： "我们明显看到大量波动，投资者渴望更多可见性。市场来回震荡是正常的。" 通胀数据好于预期，欧洲央行降息在即？ 6月3日周二，美股期货延续了连日来涨跌交替的震荡格局。欧洲股市同样走低，而美国国债则受到避险资金青睐上涨，日本10年期国债拍卖需求 旺盛。美元指数小幅走强0.2%。 当前市场正处于关键十字路口：贸易不确定性持续发酵，经济数据疲软信号频现，而政策制定者的应对空间却日益受限。投资者需要为更多波动 做好准备。 经济软着陆信号频现，就业数据成关键 美国经济显现出温和但广泛的疲软迹象。经合组织周二再次下调全球经济增长预期，预计今明两年全球经济增速均为2.9%。美国位列受冲击最严 重的国家之一。 即将公布的美国4月职位空缺报告预计将显示职位空缺降至2020年以来最低水平，反映出企业对消费者节约成本努力的日益关注。定于周五发布的 非农就业数据可能显示招聘步伐放缓。巴黎AXA Investment Managers欧洲股票主管Gilles Guibout表示： "市场交易价格比4月2日更高，但盈利预期已被下调，全球增长也 ...

Core Viewpoint - Soros Fund Management's latest 13F report reveals a significant shift in its investment strategy for Q1 2024, characterized by increased holdings in large-cap indices, utilities, and financial sectors, while substantially reducing exposure to technology and Chinese stocks, indicating a cautious outlook on the economic landscape [1][3]. Defensive Reallocation: Betting on Large-Cap Indices and Stable Income Assets - By the end of Q1, Soros Fund's top three new holdings were in defensive sectors, investing $96 million in American Electric Power (AEP), $93.6 million in Entergy Corp, and $56.66 million in JPMorgan Chase. The fund also significantly increased its position in the S&P 500 ETF while completely selling off the Russell 2000 small-cap ETF, highlighting a clear strategy of "selling small caps, buying large caps" [3]. - Analysts suggest that in the context of high interest rates and slowing economic growth, the utility sector's stable cash flow and strong anti-cyclical nature, along with large-cap stocks' better risk resilience compared to small-cap firms, reflect the fund's anticipation of increased market volatility [3]. Major Sell-Off: Technology Giants and Chinese Stocks Hit Hard - The fund completely exited 78 stocks and reduced holdings in 45 others, with technology and Chinese stocks being the hardest hit. Notable exits included Alibaba, TSMC, and Boeing, while Alphabet saw a 62.64% reduction and JD.com experienced a drastic 93.6% cut [4]. - The significant reduction in previously held semiconductor equipment firms and cloud computing companies is interpreted as a response to concerns over high valuations in the tech sector and a reassessment of exposure to Chinese stocks amid geopolitical risks [4]. Structural Increase: Betting on E-commerce Leaders and Energy Transition - Despite the sell-off, the fund increased its stake in Amazon by 30%, boosted FedEx holdings by 270%, and nearly 9-folded its position in First Solar. Even UnitedHealth Group, under investigation for insurance fraud, saw its holdings double to $1.12 billion [5]. - These moves align with the investment logic under the expectation of an "economic soft landing," where e-commerce logistics benefit from consumer resilience, renewable energy aligns with policy directions, and the healthcare sector maintains essential demand [5]. Institutional Interpretation: Preparing for Market Turbulence - Multiple Wall Street institutions interpret the fund's reallocation strategy as reflecting three strategic intentions: building a safety net through S&P 500 ETFs and utility stocks to hedge against potential recession risks, narrowing focus in the tech sector to prioritize artificial intelligence and other certain areas, and reducing exposure to emerging markets, particularly in geopolitically sensitive regions [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley strategists noted that the shift from aggressive growth to value defense indicates institutional investors are gearing up for a potentially prolonged high-interest rate environment and market volatility [7].

周四（5月15日）亚市早盘，市场屏息以待即将于20:30公布的美国4月零售销售数据（俗称"恐怖数据"）。当前市场预期该数据月率仅增长0.3%，但多位经 济学家警告，受关税政策冲击、消费信心下滑及通胀黏性影响，实际数据可能不及预期，进而引发金融市场剧烈波动。 一、数据背景：关税冲击与消费疲软的双重阴影 关税政策的滞后效应显现 特朗普政府自3月起对进口商品加征的"对等关税"已逐步传导至终端消费市场。美国商务部数据显示，4月进口商品价格指数同比上涨3.2%，其中汽车、电子 产品等关税敏感品类涨幅超5%。尽管中美关税协议落地暂缓了部分压力，但美国对欧盟、日韩等贸易伙伴的关税谈判仍存变数，企业普遍推迟涨价以观望 政策走向，导致4月零售销售数据可能因需求抑制而表现疲软。 消费信心与支出能力双降 若数据疲软，美股科技股可能面临获利回吐压力，资金或从股市回流黄金等避险资产。全球最大黄金ETF（SPDR）持仓量已连续三日减少，但若数据爆 冷，可能触发空头回补，单日增仓或超10吨。 美联储4月消费者信心指数跌至52.2，为2023年11月以来最低水平，反映出高利率环境与债务压力对居民消费意愿的压制。此外，4月非农就业新增17.5 ...

Core Insights - The sentiment towards U.S. assets is cautious, with "long gold" being the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, as 58% of investors believe it is the current most crowded trade [1][3] - Investors' attitudes towards the U.S. dollar have significantly changed, with 57% considering it overvalued, marking the lowest allocation to the dollar since May 2006 [1][7][12] - Despite a slight improvement in global economic outlook, 81% of investors still expect the economy to enter "stagflation" [2][11] Investor Sentiment - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, while 43% believe tariffs could lead to systemic credit events [2][18] - Cash levels among investors have decreased from 4.8% to 4.5%, slightly below the long-term average of 4.7% since 1999 [14] - 61% of investors now expect a "soft landing" for the global economy, a significant increase from 37% in April [14] Asset Allocation Changes - There is a notable shift in asset allocation, with a net 38% of investors underweighting U.S. stocks, the lowest level since May 2023 [23] - European stocks have seen a 13 percentage point increase in allocation to a net 35% overweight, reversing the decline from April [23] - Technology stocks have experienced a significant 17 percentage point increase in allocation, the largest monthly gain since March 2013 [23] - Energy stocks are now at a net 35% underweight, marking a historical low [23] Economic Outlook - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, despite a 66 percentage point drop from the peak in December 2024 [16] - 46% of investors anticipate two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while 25% expect three cuts [19]