Group 1 - The international gold market has seen a surge, with gold prices surpassing $3,650 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of nearly 38% [1][3] - The recent spike in gold prices is primarily driven by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which reported only 22,000 new jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, raising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [3] - The weak non-farm data has heightened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, increasing inflation expectations globally and boosting demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [3] Group 2 - The long-term trend for gold prices remains positive, with a steady increase since 2016, characterized by a slow bull market, and a notable acceleration in the past two years, with a 27.39% increase in 2024 and a 37.82% increase in 2025 to date [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, gold prices could potentially exceed $5,000 per ounce [3] Group 3 - In contrast to the booming gold market, the A-share market is still in a critical breakthrough phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to overcome resistance levels from historical highs in 2007 and 2015 [4] - The A-share market is currently valued at historical median levels, presenting a significant value proposition compared to the average valuation of over 30 times in the U.S. stock market [4] - With the impending rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve, both gold and A-shares face upward breakout opportunities, with the A-share index needing only a 5% increase to reach 4,000 points, compared to a 10% increase for gold [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a turning point for the US dollar from strong to weak, indicating a potential global asset rebalancing and a systematic revaluation of Chinese technology assets during this weak dollar cycle [1][2][3] - The long wave economic downturn is characterized by global restructuring, evolving competitive landscapes, and asset price volatility, with the current strong dollar cycle facing a turning point [2][15][20] - The report suggests that the US economy's long-term concerns and increasing policy uncertainty are undermining the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset, leading to a shift in global capital allocation [24][20][29] Group 2 - In a weak dollar environment, Chinese technology assets are expected to benefit from the revaluation of RMB-denominated assets, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks positioned as core beneficiaries in the global asset rebalancing process [2][17][20] - The report anticipates that during the interest rate cut cycle, Hong Kong stocks will benefit from global liquidity shifts and domestic profit turning points, with scarce technology assets and high-dividend state-owned enterprises becoming key investment themes [2][20][21] - A-shares are projected to benefit from the RMB asset revaluation process, with expected recovery and valuation support, leading to a structural bull market in small-cap growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [2][20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 3, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodity futures fell, with lithium carbonate and SCFIS(Europe) dropping by over 3% [2][9][10][11] - Gold increased by 1.3% to 814.88 yuan/gram due to the U.S. Manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations; the next target price level for gold is seen at $3,900 - $4,000 [14][15][16] - Iron ore increased by 0.7% to 777 yuan/ton, with high demand, stable supply and inventory, and expected price fluctuations in the later market [19][21][22] - Crude oil increased by 0.7% to 493.2 yuan/barrel, with prices expected to fluctuate with a weak bias, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine issue negotiations [26][27][28] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 3, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodity futures fell, with lithium carbonate and SCFIS(Europe) dropping by over 3% [9][10][11] - The top three gainers in China's commodity futures are egg (up 2.6% with open interest down 14.1% month - on - month), gold (up 1.3% with open interest up 2.7% month - on - month), and ethenylbenzene (up 1.0% with open interest down 6.1% month - on - month) [9][11] - The top three decliners in China's commodity futures are lithium carbonate (down 3.1% with open interest down 0.6% month - on - month), SCFIS(Europe) (down 3.0% with open interest down 4.1% month - on - month), and sodium hydroxide (down 2.7% with open interest up 4.8% month - on - month) [10][11] - In financial futures, IH and IC recorded relatively large declines of 1.3%, while TL saw a relatively large increase of 0.46% [10][11] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold - On September 3, gold increased by 1.3% to 814.88 yuan/gram; the U.S. Manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations supported gold prices [14][16] - The next target price level for gold is seen at $3,900 - $4,000, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and political intervention risk are core market contradictions [15][16] 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On September 3, iron ore increased by 0.7% to 777 yuan/ton; demand is high, supply and inventory are stable, and prices are expected to fluctuate later [19][21][22] - Overseas mine shipments and 45 - port arrivals increased month - on - month; Hebei steel plant maintenance may lead to a limited decline in pig iron production; post - parade demand may return to a high level [20][21][22] - This week, port inventory decreased, port congestion increased, plant inventory decreased, and total inventory declined slightly [21][22] 1.2.3 Crude Oil - On September 3, crude oil increased by 0.7% to 493.2 yuan/barrel; prices are expected to fluctuate with a weak bias, and short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine issue negotiations should be noted [26][28] - Concerns over U.S. - Venezuela conflicts and Trump's attitude towards Russia add to geopolitical premiums; OPEC+ production hikes bring supply pressure, and U.S. production resilience is evident [27][28] - Crude oil inventories face dual pressures from refinery operating rate decline and OPEC+ production increases, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited [27][28] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of September 3, the gathering marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held at Tian'anmen Square in Beijing [30] 2.2 Industry News - On September 2, Southbound capital recorded a net purchase of HKD 9.281 billion, pushing its annual net purchases beyond HKD 1 trillion, a new record; this year, the cumulative net investment in the Hong Kong stock market has approached HKD 4.7 trillion [31] - In August 2025, the number of newly opened A - share trading accounts was 2.65 million, a 165% year - on - year increase [31]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with both London gold and COMEX gold reaching historical highs, driven by various macroeconomic factors and trends in the market [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On September 3, London gold reached a peak of $3546.9 per ounce, surpassing the critical $3500 level, while COMEX gold hit $3616.9 per ounce, marking a historical high [1]. - The surge in gold prices has led to a corresponding increase in gold-related ETFs, with 13 commodity gold ETFs and 4 stock gold ETFs reported in the market [1]. Group 2: ETF Performance - As of September 3, all gold ETFs have shown an annual return of approximately 30%, while gold stock ETFs have exceeded 60%, with the highest performer, Yongying Gold Stock ETF, rising about 69% year-to-date [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Several fund companies anticipate that factors such as the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and the global trend of de-dollarization will provide support for gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. - However, there is a caution regarding the impact of stablecoin development on the credibility of the US dollar, which could influence gold prices [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with spot gold hitting $3546.9 per ounce and COMEX gold touching $3616.9 per ounce, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 3, spot gold prices reached $3546.9 per ounce, surpassing the critical $3500 level [1] - COMEX gold also hit a record high of $3616.9 per ounce during the same trading session [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - As gold prices surged, gold-related ETFs have seen significant gains, with 13 commodity gold ETFs and 4 stock gold ETFs in the market [1] - Year-to-date returns for gold ETFs are approximately 30%, while gold stock ETFs have exceeded 60% returns [1] - The highest-performing ETF, Yongying Gold Stock ETF, has increased by about 69% year-to-date [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Several fund companies anticipate that factors such as the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, increased macroeconomic uncertainty overseas, and the global trend of de-dollarization will support gold prices in the medium to long term [1] - There is a cautionary note regarding the impact of stablecoin development on the credit of the US dollar [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - On September 2, spot gold broke through the $3500 mark, reaching $3508 per ounce, a record high, and silver prices soared to a 14 - year high of $40.76 per ounce. The below - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday night supported the gold price [2]. - In August, the US manufacturing remained in the contraction zone, with a slightly slower contraction. New orders rebounded, indicating marginal improvement in demand, but output and employment declined, and order backlogs decreased, showing weak production motivation. Supply - side delivery slowed slightly, inventories were low, and future restocking might be triggered. Prices continued to rise, mainly driven by steel, aluminum, and tariffs. The overall situation was "initial demand recovery, weak production and employment, and rising cost pressure", and the manufacturing recovery was still restricted by high costs and uncertainties [2]. - The core market contradictions in the future will be the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks. Technically, the next target for gold is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the historical high of $49 - $50. The weekly range for London gold is [3350, 3600], and for London silver is [38, 42] [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - China and Russia's leaders held talks, and China is willing to strengthen high - level exchanges with Russia, support each other's development, and coordinate positions on core issues to promote greater development of bilateral relations [1]. - Turkish President Erdogan discussed ways to end the Ukraine war with Russian President Putin and had a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, but both sides are "not ready" for a leaders' meeting [1]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes the Supreme Court will support Trump's use of the 1977 emergency powers act to impose comprehensive tariffs on most trading partners, and the US government has a backup plan if the Supreme Court does not support it [1]. Price Logic - The below - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI supported the gold price. The US manufacturing in August was in contraction with a slightly slower pace. Demand showed marginal improvement, but production and employment were weak, and cost pressure was rising. The manufacturing recovery was restricted by high costs and uncertainties [2]. - The core market contradictions are the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks. Technically, gold's next target is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge $49 - $50. The weekly ranges for London gold and silver are [3350, 3600] and [38, 42] respectively [2]. Market Indexes - On September 2, 2025, the commodity index was 2214.36 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2472.40 (+0.25%), and the industrial products index was 2227.52 (+0.01%) [42]. - The precious metals index on September 2, 2025, was 2831.72, with a daily increase of 0.48%, a 5 - day increase of 3.76%, a 1 - month increase of 4.44%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.99% [44].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, emphasizing the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar as a key pricing logic [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A weaker US dollar is expected to benefit precious metal prices [1] - Historical data indicates that gold and silver typically experience significant price increases within two months following the start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, providing an important reference for the current market [1]

格隆汇9月2日｜摩根士丹利策略师迈克尔·威尔逊表示，美股在连续四个月上涨后仍有进一步上行空 间，因美联储降息周期将与强劲的企业盈利形成共振。他指出，美国经济正进入"周期早期阶段"，即企 业名义盈利持续回升的同时，借贷成本开始下降。此外，今年小盘股等对利率敏感的股票表现落后，意 味着它们仍有补涨潜力。威尔逊表示，"我们不认同降息预期已被完全定价的观点。"威尔逊警告称，9 月的季节性走势疲弱以及通胀数据若超预期可能给此轮涨势带来风险。但他认为，若短期内出现股市回 调，"反而可能为年底强劲收官奠定基础"。 ...

Market Performance - A-shares have been rising since August, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increasing by 28% and the ChiNext Index rising over 24%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has gained nearly 8% [1] - Historically, since 2000, the Shanghai Composite Index has a 50% probability of rising in September, while the ChiNext Index has a slightly lower probability [1] - The Consumer Sector shows a higher probability of increase, with the 800 Consumer Index having a 60% probability of rising [1] Institutional Outlook - Institutions are generally optimistic about the future performance of A-shares, with Everbright Securities stating that the logic supporting the market's rise remains unchanged and valuations are reasonable without significant overextension [1] - New positive factors are emerging, such as the potential onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and a recovery in public fund issuance [1] - Zhongtai Securities indicates that liquidity factors are aiding the market's bullish trend, and liquidity is expected to continue driving the market upward, alongside the need for fundamental support [1] Company Profit Forecasts - Various companies have projected net profit growth for 2025 and 2026, with notable increases in specific sectors: - Jiejie Microelectronics (300623) expects a net profit of 37.95 million with a growth rate of 34.40% for 2025 and 34.15% for 2026 [3] - BGI Genomics (301269) anticipates a net profit of 23.82 million, with a significant growth of 82.78% in 2025 and 51.36% in 2026 [3] - Baiwei Storage (688525) forecasts a net profit of 22.15 million, with a remarkable growth of 140.65% for 2025 and 80.38% for 2026 [3] - Other companies such as Zhongwei Company (688012) and Kunlun Wanwei (300418) also show strong profit growth expectations, indicating a positive outlook in their respective industries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming weeks are critical for the U.S. stock market, as employment data, key inflation indicators, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be released within the next 14 trading days, setting the market tone for investors [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has recorded its weakest monthly gain since March, and historically, September is the worst-performing month for the index [1] - Market volatility has nearly disappeared, with the VIX index only touching the key level of 20 once since the end of June [1] Analyst Insights - Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, suggests that it is prudent for investors to remain cautious in September [1] - Lee anticipates a 5% to 10% decline in the S&P 500 this fall, followed by a rebound to between 6800 and 7000 points [1]