Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analysts maintain a bullish stance on gold, predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, based on an expected average quarterly investor demand and central bank purchases of 566 tons [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - The forecast for gold prices is underpinned by the assumption of stable investor demand and central bank purchases [1] - The long-term target for gold is set at $6,000 per ounce by 2028, emphasizing the need to view gold trends over multiple years [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The current market consolidation is viewed as a healthy phenomenon, with recent pullbacks reflecting the market's digestion of rapid price increases since August [1] - Concerns about inflation, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and currency devaluation risks are seen as favorable factors for gold [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Natasha Kaneva, the global head of commodity strategy, expresses high confidence in gold as a key investment as the market enters a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle [1] - Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy, highlights the combination of economic factors contributing to a positive outlook for gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley identifies gold as the most favored long-term investment for this year, anticipating further price increases as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, with a projected gold price of $6,000 by 2028 [1] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to rise further due to the initiation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [1] - The firm projects that gold prices will reach $6,000 by the year 2028 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices experienced a significant drop, with gold and silver prices hitting their largest single-day declines since 2013 and 2021 respectively, amid easing US-China trade tensions and potential resolution of the US government shutdown [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On the evening of the 21st, spot gold prices fell by 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, while spot silver prices dropped by 8.7%, the largest since 2021 [1]. - COMEX gold futures decreased by 5.28%, and COMEX silver futures fell by 7.67% [1]. - As of the report, gold futures closed down 4.94% at $4144.1 per ounce, and silver futures closed down 6.37% at $48.11 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The drop in precious metal prices occurred against the backdrop of signals from the White House indicating progress on the government shutdown issue, which may have contributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - Citigroup forecasts that the end of the US government shutdown and easing trade tensions may lead to a consolidation phase for gold prices over the next three weeks, adjusting their outlook from bullish to bearish [3]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices lacks a clear catalyst, indicating that investor sentiment has not reached excessive levels, which may suggest a rational boundary for gold price increases [3][6]. - WisdomTree's commodity strategist noted that while gold prices still have upward potential, the current aggressive rise may lead to technical corrections [3]. Group 4: Economic Factors - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, is seen as a core driver for rising gold prices, as lower interest rates enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [3][4]. - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves, particularly China's continuous purchases over the past 11 months, provides solid support for the gold market [3][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook for gold prices, emphasizing that the current price adjustments should be viewed as opportunities for accumulation rather than reasons for panic [6][7]. - Key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and market sentiment regarding economic conditions [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The performance of domestic futures contracts on October 21, 2025, was mixed. Some contracts like shipping container freight on the Europe route and precious metals showed significant gains, while others such as coking coal and coke declined. Different commodities have different market outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and geopolitical situations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of the close on October 21, shipping container freight on the Europe route rose over 5%, Shanghai gold rose over 2%, and rubber rose nearly 2%. Coking coal fell over 3% and coke fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, CSI 500 index futures (IC) rose 2.08%, etc. Among treasury bond futures, 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.16% [6][7]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:17 on October 21, funds flowed into CSI 500 2512 (2.453 billion), CSI 1000 2512 (1.412 billion), and SSE 50 2512 (1.179 billion). Funds flowed out of coking coal 2601 (735 million), Shanghai silver 2512 (288 million), and styrene 2511 (244 million) [7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper**: Copper opened low and closed high with a strong intraday trend. Supply is tight due to inventory reduction and smelter maintenance. High prices are not well - accepted by downstream, but demand has rigid support. With the end of the peak season, the upward space is limited [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and closed low with a weak intraday trend. It shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The production profit is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, the price is supported, but demand may decline next month [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the demand peak is over. The supply - demand situation is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, it will fluctuate weakly. With upcoming Sino - US trade talks, price volatility may increase [12]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. With upcoming Sino - US trade talks and a strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工率 is low, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The supply - demand pressure is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][17]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is at a neutral level, and new production capacity has been added. The peak season demand is not as expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **PVC**: Supply is still at a relatively high level, and export expectations are weak. Social inventory is high, and the pressure is large. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and closed low with a weak trend. Supply is tight, and demand is affected by the profitability of coke enterprises. The peak season provides some support [21]. - **Urea**: The futures price opened low and closed high. The cost is rising, and demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak and stable [23].

Group 1 - Industrial metals have a high proportion in the non-ferrous sector, categorized into financial and commodity attributes [1] - The financial aspect indicates that prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which are expected to continue [1] - Recent supply changes include a short-term production cut of 470,000 tons of copper from the Grasberg mine due to a landslide, leading to a projected supply-demand gap of 300,000 tons in copper for next year, approximately 1.3% of global supply [1][2] Group 2 - Downstream demand is expected to rise due to significant overseas AI investments, increasing copper demand in data centers and power grids, as well as from the renewable energy sector [2] - Aluminum supply is relatively balanced, with high utilization rates in domestic electrolytic aluminum production, suggesting strong upward price elasticity if demand increases or supply is disrupted [2] - The current valuation of aluminum-related companies in the A-share market is low, with PE ratios around 10-12 times for aluminum and 18 times for copper, indicating potential for upward valuation [3] Group 3 - Overall, the supply-demand situation for industrial metals is tight, particularly with limited future capacity release, and prices are expected to remain strong despite short-term fluctuations due to trade conflicts [3] - The non-ferrous mining sector is likely to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improving downstream demand [3] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index, focusing on resource companies, with over 50% concentration in industrial metals, gold, and rare earths, aligning with the logic of rising metal prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached historical highs, driven by rising market concerns over the stability of the credit system and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 17, spot gold prices in London peaked at $4,380.79 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures for December reached $4,392 per ounce, marking new record highs [1]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to renewed risks in the U.S. regional banking sector, particularly incidents of loan fraud at ZionsBancorp and WesternAllianceBancorp, which have heightened market fears regarding credit stability [1]. - The ongoing uncertainty in the external environment, including the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and unresolved U.S.-China trade tensions, has maintained high levels of market risk aversion, providing strong support for gold prices [1]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Factors - In the past week, gold prices have consistently broken through key levels of $4,100, $4,200, and $4,300 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend [2]. - Factors such as the initiation of a new Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, the U.S. government shutdown crisis, and debt pressures have put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index, contributing to the rise in gold prices [2]. - Central banks around the world continue to purchase gold, with global official gold reserves at historical highs, which is a significant long-term driver for rising gold prices [2]. Group 3: Potential Pressures and Future Outlook - The current gold market faces two potential pressures: a high concentration of long positions and the speculative nature of trading, which could lead to increased volatility and potential price corrections if market sentiment shifts [3]. - Future movements in international gold prices may be influenced by ongoing uncertainties, including developments in the U.S. government shutdown and the evolution of risks in the regional banking sector, which could act as catalysts for further price increases [3].

Group 1: Gold Sector Performance - The gold sector showed significant gains on October 17, with multiple gold-themed ETFs rising over 3% [1][4] - On October 16, the total net inflow for 14 commodity gold ETFs exceeded 5.1 billion yuan, with Huaan Gold ETF and Bosera Gold ETF each seeing net inflows over 1 billion yuan [3][8] - The highest single-day gain was recorded by Gold ETF AU (518860.SH) at 4.68%, while several other ETFs also saw gains exceeding 3.5% [4][9] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The current rally in gold prices began in late August, driven by the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and increased geopolitical uncertainties, leading to gold prices surpassing 4,000 USD per ounce in October [5] Group 3: New Energy Sector Performance - The new energy sector experienced notable adjustments, with several photovoltaic and energy storage battery-themed ETFs declining over 5% on October 17 [2][6] - Specific ETFs such as the Energy Storage Battery ETF and leading Photovoltaic ETF saw declines of 6.46% and 6.41%, respectively [7] Group 4: Insights on New Energy Market - According to Dongwu Fund, the construction of new projects and capacity in the new energy sector has significantly slowed since 2023, with capital expenditures expected to decline further in 2024 [6][8] - The capacity utilization rate across the industry has returned to over 60% since Q2 2023, with some sub-sectors reaching 80%, indicating a healthier state [6][8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant rise in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by macroeconomic, industrial, and geopolitical factors, highlighting a "metal market boom" [1][3] - The Shenyin Wanguo non-ferrous metals industry index has seen a year-to-date increase of 73.14% as of October 16, 2025, leading among 31 primary industries [1][3] Industry Overview - Non-ferrous metals are defined as metals excluding iron, manganese, and chromium, categorized into five types: industrial metals, minor metals, energy metals, precious metals, and new metal materials [5] - The current market dynamics indicate a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with ongoing investment opportunities [10] Investment Strategies - Longview Fund's Chen Ziyang focuses on the non-ferrous metals sector, with a portfolio that includes leading companies in industrial metals, precious metals, minor metals, and new materials [5][12] - The Longview Cycle Select Fund has a significant allocation to non-ferrous metals, with top holdings reflecting a broad exposure to key segments [8][12] Market Drivers - Industrial metals are benefiting from a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to increase demand and prices, particularly for copper [11] - Minor metals like rare earths are gaining strategic importance due to recent export controls by the Ministry of Commerce, indicating a potential for value reassessment [13] - Energy metals are projected to enter a super cycle driven by the rapid growth of green industries, with demand for key metals expected to increase significantly by 2040 [13] Precious Metals Outlook - The price of gold is anticipated to remain strong, supported by central banks increasing their gold reserves amid a weakening dollar [14] - The article suggests that the current market conditions may present an opportune time for investors to consider gold investments [14]

Core Viewpoint - The year-on-year decline in September PPI continues to narrow, driven by price increases in anti-involution policy benefiting industries and non-ferrous metal sectors [1] Group 1: Anti-involution Policy Benefiting Industries - Industries benefiting from anti-involution policies include coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, battery manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products, all showing a continued narrowing in year-on-year PPI decline [1] - The improvement in industrial product prices is primarily concentrated in upstream industries, with only localized price transmission observed in mid and downstream sectors, such as the photovoltaic equipment and components industry [1] Group 2: Non-ferrous Metal Sector - The non-ferrous metal sector, particularly copper prices, has seen significant increases driven by supply-side disruptions and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1] - Despite the improvements in industrial prices, a widespread price increase has not yet materialized across the board [1]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a downturn, with aluminum futures showing slight strength, closing at 20,880.00 CNY/ton, up 0.10% [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates short-term pressure on the domestic economy, with slowing consumption and investment growth, but there are structural highlights in domestic demand [1] - Future macro policies are expected to maintain a "steady progress" approach, relying on coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize growth [1] Group 2 - Supply side analysis shows that the upstream industry remains relatively loose, but domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is characterized by limited growth, with new capacity mainly from hydropower aluminum in the southwest [1] - The demand side is experiencing structural differentiation, with weak performance in construction materials dragging down overall consumption, while sectors like aluminum cables and plates are seeing slight recovery due to policy stimulus [1] - Looking ahead, market sentiment is influenced by changes in Trump's tariff policies, with expectations of limited aluminum price fluctuations and a preference for a stable oscillation in prices [2]